OPTIMAL CONTROL MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF COVID-19

WITH LARGE SCALE OF SOCIAL DISTANCING AND THERAPY

EFFECT STRATEGIES
Abstract
This article presents the mathematical modeling of covid-19 spread with optimal control that aims to observe the
dynamics with social distancing and therapeutic effect. We use two control functions, namely 𝑢1 to minimize the
susceptibility to move to the carrier population and 𝑢2 to maximize the severe symptom to move to the recovery
population. Numerical solution using the forward-backward sweep method with Runge Kutta 4th order, numerical
simulation on the optimal control problem. The simulation results obtained are the best strategy for controlling
COVID-19 disease.
Keywords: optimal control, COVID-19, PSBB, therapy

Abstrak
Artikel ini menyajikan model penyebaran penyakit COVID-19 dengan kontrol optimal yang bertujuan untuk
mengamati dinamika penyebaran COVID-19 dengan strategi pembatasan sosial berskala besar dan efek
pemberian terapi. Kami menggunakan dua fungsi kontrol yang bergantung pada waktu yaitu fungsi kontrol 𝑢1
untuk meminimumkan populasi susceptible berpindah ke populasi carrier dan fungsi kontrol 𝑢2 untuk
memaksimumkan populasi severe symptom untuk berpindah ke populasi recover. Simulasi numerik pada
masalah kontrol optimal menggunakan metode forward-backward sweep dengan Runge Kutta Orde-4. Hasil
simulasi yang diperoleh merupakan strategi terbaik untuk mengendalikan penyakit COVID-19.
Keywords: kontrol optimal, COVID-19, PSBB, terapi,

1. PRELIMINARY
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by Severe Acute
Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). The most basic thing if someone is infected with the
virus is the onset of symptoms of cough, fever, or flu. Symptoms caused by people infected
with COVID-19 can be categorized into two categories, namely being infected with mild and
severe symptoms. Mild symptoms are characterized by general symptoms and can heal in
approximately one week. Meanwhile, those with severe symptoms will experience progressive
respiratory failure because the virus has entered, damaging the alveoli and will cause death [1].
Since the COVID-19 disease outbreak in the community, the government has taken several
ways to overcome the COVID-19, such as implementing social distancing to suppress the
spread of the virus and taking several precautions such as implementing health protocols and
quarantine for infected people. The purpose of quarantine is to restrict human and goods
movement, control and stop transmission, and recover public health to its original state [2]. In
some cases, people who are quarantined with mild symptoms can develop into severe
symptoms due to the presence of comorbidities in their bodies.
Mathematical models of infectious diseases are useful for understanding control
mechanisms to reduce infection and many researchers have studied COVID-19 disease. For
example, [3] focused on applying PPKM to restrict interactions between individuals and
quarantine infected people to reduce the number of sufferers during COVID-19. Besides that,
[4] and [5] modeling the transmission of COVID-19 disease to suppress the spread of the
disease and reduce the contact rate by implementing PSBB. In [6], focus on modeling the
spread of COVID-19 disease by wearing a health mask and quarantine. The simulation results
obtained the equilibrium point locally asymptotic stable if 𝑅0 < 1, which means, the disease
will disappear from the population after the 45th day. In [7] construct a mathematical model by
applying social distancing in Kota Makassar. If the government increases the application of
PSBB to a minimum of 34,23%, it will take approximately 70 days for infected people to finish.
The greater value of the parameter of PSBB is given, the faster the COVID-19 disease will
disappear. In [8] construct a mathematical model related to COVID-19 disease to determine
the effectiveness of convalescent plasma therapy without distinction among mild, severe, and
critical infected people. The result showed that the effect of giving convalescent plasma therapy
could reduce the spread of COVID-19 disease. By using 200 days intervals, there are many
patients recovered due to the availability of convalescent plasma stock.
Based on the description above, the author will examine the mathematical model by
referring journal developed by [7] and dividing the Reported population into two categories,
namely mild and severe symptoms, and adding optimal control variables for the application of
PSBB and therapy effect for the severe symptom population.

2. METHODS
2.1 Model Formulation
In this step, a mathematical model of the spread of COVID-19 disease will be developed
consisting of six compartments such as susceptible (S), carrier (C), mild symptom (P), severe
symptom (V), unreported symptom (U), and recover (R). in this model, individuals have the
probability of being infected with COVID-19 and there is no migration of individuals into and
out of the system.

Figure 1. The Diagram of the COVID-19 Spread Model

Figure 1 shows the optimal control of the dynamics of the spread of COVID-19 disease
with PSBB and therapy effect strategies. Population 𝑆 has increased due to natural birth with a
birth rate transmission 𝜇𝑁. Asymptomatic individuals will move to 𝐶 and have an incubation
period of 0 – 14 days. If the virus is detected, it will move to the 𝑃, 𝑉, and 𝑈 populations.
Population 𝑃 decreased due to individuals who recover after quarantine 𝑞𝛼1 𝑃, natural death,
or due to COVID-19, and rate transmission individual with mild symptom developed onto
severe symptom 𝑉. 𝑉 decreased due to natural death or COVID-19 and individuals who
recover after therapy effect(1 − 𝑢2 )𝛼2 𝑉. Population 𝑅 decrease due to natural death and have
probability to re-infected. Based on the assumption and the interaction among compartments
in Figure 1, the model is given in the following system:
𝑑𝑆(𝑡) 𝑆
= 𝜇𝑁 + 𝛾𝑅(𝑡) − (1 − 𝜌1 )(1 − 𝑢1 )𝛽 (𝐶(𝑡) + 𝑈(𝑡)) − 𝜇𝑆(𝑡),
𝑑𝑡 𝑁
𝑑𝐶(𝑡) 𝑆
= (1 − 𝜌1 )(1 − 𝑢1 )𝛽 (𝐶(𝑡) + 𝑈(𝑡)) − (𝛿 + 𝜎 + 𝜇)𝐶(𝑡),
𝑑𝑡 𝑁
𝑑𝑃(𝑡)
= 𝛿1 𝐶(𝑡) − (𝑞𝛼1 + (1 − 𝑞)𝜔 + 𝜇 + 𝜀)𝑃(𝑡), (1)
𝑑𝑡
𝑑𝑉(𝑡)
= 𝛿3 𝐶(𝑡) + 𝜀𝑃(𝑡) − ((1 − 𝑢2 )𝛼2 + 𝜔 + 𝜇)𝑉(𝑡),
𝑑𝑡
 𝑑𝑈(𝑡)
= 𝛿2 𝐶(𝑡) − (𝜔 + 𝜇)𝑈(𝑡),
𝑑𝑡
𝑑𝑅(𝑡)
= 𝜎𝐶(𝑡) + 𝑞𝛼1 𝑃(𝑡) + (1 − 𝑢2 )𝛼2 𝑉(𝑡) − (𝜇 + 𝛾)𝑅(𝑡),
𝑑𝑡
with initial condition 𝑆(0) = 𝑆0 > 0, 𝐶 (0) = 𝐶0 ≥ 0, 𝑃(0) = 𝑃0 ≥ 0, 𝑉(0) = 𝑉0 ≥
0, 𝑈(0) = 𝑈0 ≥ 0, 𝑅(0) = 𝑅0 ≥ 0. The parameters are described in Table 2.1.

Table 2.1. Parameter of the Model (1)

Parameters Description Syarat Satuan
𝝁 The natural and death rate 𝜇>0 1/ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑖
𝝆 The proportion of a good immunity 0 ≤ 𝜌1 ≤ 1 -
𝜷 Rate of transmission contact 𝛽>0 1/𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔 ∙ ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑖
𝜹 The transmission rate of symptomatic 𝛿>0 1/ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑖
𝝈 The transmission rate of asymptomatic 𝜎>0 1/ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑖
recover
𝒒 The proportion of mild symptomatic due 0≤𝑞≤1 -
to quarantine
𝜶 The transmission rate of symptomatic to 𝛼>0 1/ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑖
recover
𝜸 the recovery rate to re-infected 𝛾>0 1/ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑖
𝝎 The death rate of COVID-19 𝜔>0 1/ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑖
𝜺 The transmission rate of mild to severe 𝜀>0 1/ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑖
symptom
𝒖𝟏 The proportion of social distancing 0 ≤ 𝑢2 (𝑡) ≤ 1 -
𝒖𝟐 The proportion of therapy effect 0 ≤ 𝑢2 (𝑡) ≤ 1 -

2.2 Optimal Control Theory

The optimal control is used to find the control value of 𝑢(𝑡) that is processed in the
dynamic system to maximize or minimize the objective function. suppose a dynamic system is
given by the equation
𝒙̇ (𝑡) = 𝒇(𝑥(𝑡), 𝑢(𝑡), 𝑡), (2)
with initial condition 𝑥 (𝑡0 ) = 𝑥(0) and final condition 𝑥(𝑡𝑓 ) = 𝑥 (𝑓 ) and 𝑢(𝑡) which the state
control at time 𝑡. generally, the optimal control can be formulated as follow
𝑡
𝐽(𝑢(𝑡)) = 𝑆(𝑥(𝑡𝑓 ), 𝑡𝑓 ) + ∫𝑡 𝑓 𝑉(𝑥 (𝑡), 𝑢(𝑡), 𝑡) 𝑑𝑡. (3)
0
The spread of infectious disease, the objective function provides the quantity measure
to reduce the number of individuals infected. control of 𝑢∗ (𝑡) is an optimal control. If we
substituted into equation (2) we will obtain the optimal state of 𝑥 ∗ (𝑡) and in the same time will
optimizing the objective function (3) denoted by 𝐽∗ (𝑥 ∗ (𝑡)). The optimal state is limited by
boundary conditions, namely initial and final conditions. The general form of 𝐽(𝑢(𝑡)) namely
Bolza form where 𝑆 is the Meyer form and 𝑉 is the Lagrange form. Pontryagin’s minimum
principle is an optimal control that must be solved, namely state, costate and their
transversality, and stationary equations. It states that Hamiltonian equation will be minimized
as long as 𝒰 [5].
By using Pontryagin’s minimum principle, the constrained optimization problem can
be transformed into without constraints
𝑚𝑖𝑛 𝑚𝑖𝑛 𝑇( ) (
(𝑡, 𝒙, 𝑢, 𝝀) = ( ) )
(𝒙, 𝑢, 𝝀) 𝐻 (𝒙, 𝑢, 𝝀)(𝒇 𝑡, 𝒙, 𝑢 + 𝜆 𝑡 𝑔 𝑡, 𝒙, 𝑢 ),
with optimization conditions
𝜕𝐻
𝒙̇ = 𝜕𝝀 = 𝑔(𝑡, 𝒙, 𝑢), 𝑥 (𝑡0 ) = 𝑥0 ,
 𝜕𝐻
𝝀̇ = − 𝜕𝒙 , 𝝀(𝑡𝑓 ) = 0,
𝜕𝐻
= 0, ∀𝑢 ∈ 𝑈.
𝜕𝒖

The optimization problems can be solved using various optimization methods. one of
them is use the Forward-Backward sweep method. This method is an iterative method that will
be used to approximate the optimal solution 𝑢∗ using the initial guess given for at the beginning
of the iteration.in time interval [𝑡0 , 𝑡𝑓 ] is divided into several parts, namely 𝑡0 =
𝑏1 , 𝑏2 , … , 𝑏𝑁 , 𝑏𝑁+1 = 𝑡𝑓 and control 𝑢 = (𝑢1 , 𝑢2 , … , 𝑢𝑁+1 ), where 𝑢𝑖 ≈ 𝑢(𝑏𝑖 ). in
optimizing conditions, it gives a boundary value problem for 𝑥 and 𝜆 depands on 𝑢 and then
the Runge Kutta Order 4 method will be used to get the solution 𝑥(𝑡).

4. RESULT AND DISCUSION

The optimal control problem is solved with the aim of minimizing the number of
individuals with the minimum cost of implementing controls 𝑢1 and 𝑢2 . The objective function
to be minimized is defined as follows:
𝑚𝑖𝑛 𝑡𝑓 1 1
𝐽= ( 𝐴 𝑢2 (𝑡) + 2 𝐴2 𝑢22 (𝑡) + 𝐴3 𝐶 (𝑡) + 𝐴4 𝑉(𝑡)) 𝑑𝑡,
(𝑢1 , 𝑢2 ) ∫0 2 1 1
(4)
with control boundary 0 ≤ 𝑢1 , 𝑢2 ≤ 1 and 𝑡𝑓 is a final time of treatment. Coefisien of 𝐴1 is the
weight value of control function 𝑢1 , namely PSBB, coefisien of 𝐴2 is the weight value of
control function of 𝑢2 namely therapy effect, coefisient of 𝐴3 is the weight value of carrier
population, and 𝐴4 is the weight value of severe symptom population.
based on Pontryagin’ minimum principle, equation (4) will be formed to solve the objective
function with constraints on equation (1).
1 1
𝑔(𝑡, 𝒙, 𝒖) = 2 𝐴1 𝑢12 (𝑡) + 2 𝐴2 𝑢22 (𝑡) + 𝐴3 𝐶 (𝑡) + 𝐴4 𝑉(𝑡) (5)
suppose that the Lagrange multiplier of equation (1) i.e. 𝜆 and 𝜆𝑇 is the transpose of 𝜆 so that
it can be written
𝝀 = (𝜆1 𝜆2 𝜆3 𝜆4 𝜆5 𝜆6 )𝑇
then the Hamiltonian function can be described as follows:
1 1
𝐻(𝑡, 𝒙, 𝑢, 𝜆) = 𝐴1 𝑢12 + 𝐴2 𝑢22 + 𝐴3 𝐶 + 𝐴4 𝑉
2 2
+ 𝜆1 [𝜇𝑁 + 𝛾𝑅 − 𝜇𝑆 − (1 − 𝜌)(1 − 𝑢1 (𝑡))𝛽𝑆(𝐶 + 𝑈)]
+ 𝜆2 [(1 − 𝜌)(1 − 𝑢1 (𝑡))𝛽𝑆(𝐶 + 𝑈) − (𝜎 + 𝜇 + 𝛿 )𝐶]
+ 𝜆3 [𝛿1 𝐶 − (𝜀 + 𝑞𝛼1 + (1 − 𝑞)𝜔 + 𝜇 )𝑃]
+ 𝜆4 [𝛿3 𝐶 + 𝜀𝑃 − ((1 − 𝑢2 (𝑡))𝛼2 + 𝜔 + 𝜇)𝑉] + 𝜆5 [δ2 C − (ω + μ)U]
+ 𝜆6 [ 𝑞𝛼1 𝑃 + (1 − 𝑢2 (𝑡))𝛼2 𝑉 + 𝜎𝐶 − (𝜇 + 𝛾 )𝑅]. (6)
On equation (6) we will determine state, costate, and stationery equation below:
• State equation
State equation is obtained from
𝜕𝐻 𝜕𝐻 𝜕𝐻 𝜕𝐻 𝜕𝐻 𝜕𝐻 𝜕𝐻 𝑇
𝒙̇ = =( ) ,
𝜕𝝀 𝜕𝜆1 𝜕𝜆2 𝜕𝜆3 𝜕𝜆4 𝜕𝜆5 𝜕𝜆6
and we get,
𝑆̇ = 𝜇𝑁 + 𝛾𝑅 − 𝜇𝑆 − (1 − 𝜌)(1 − 𝑢1 (𝑡))𝛽𝑆(𝐶 + 𝑈) ,
𝐶̇ = (1 − 𝜌)(1 − 𝑢1 (𝑡))𝛽𝑆(𝐶 + 𝑈) − (𝜎 + 𝜇 + 𝛿 )𝐶 ,
 𝑃̇ = 𝛿1 𝐶 − (𝜀 + 𝑞𝛼1 + (1 − 𝑞)𝜔 + 𝜇 )𝑃 ,
𝑉̇ = 𝛿3 𝐶 + 𝜀𝑃 − ((1 − 𝑢2 (𝑡))𝛼2 + 𝜔 + 𝜇)𝑉 ,
𝑈̇ = δ2 C − (ω + μ)U ,
𝑅̇ = 𝑞𝛼1 𝑃 + (1 − 𝑢2 (𝑡))𝛼2 𝑉 + 𝜎𝐶 − (𝜇 + 𝛾 )𝑅.
• Costate equation
Costate equation is obtained from
𝜕𝐻 𝜕𝐻 𝜕𝐻 𝜕𝐻 𝜕𝐻 𝜕𝐻 𝜕𝐻
𝝀 = − 𝜕𝒙 = (− 𝜕𝑆 , − 𝜕𝐶 , − 𝜕𝑃 , − 𝜕𝑉 , − 𝜕𝑈 − 𝜕𝑅 ),
and we get
(𝜆 −𝜆 )((1−𝜌)(1−𝑢1 (𝑡))𝛽(𝐶+𝑈)
𝜆1̇ = 1 2 + 𝜇𝜆1 ,
𝑁
(1−𝜌 )(1−𝑢1 (𝑡))𝛽S (1−𝜌)(1−𝑢1(𝑡))𝛽S
𝜆2̇ = −𝐴3 + 𝜆1 ( ) − 𝜆2 ( − (𝜎 + 𝜇 + 𝛿 )) − δ1 𝜆3 −
𝑁 N

δ3 𝜆4 − δ2 𝜆5 − 𝜆6 𝜎,
𝜆3̇ = 𝜆3 ((ε + qα1 + (1 − q)ω + μ)) − ε𝜆4 − qα1 λ6,
𝜆4̇ = −𝐴4 + 𝜆4 ((1 − 𝑢2 (𝑡))𝛼2 + 𝜔 + 𝜇 ) − 𝜆6 (1 − 𝑢2 (𝑡))α2 ),
(1−𝜌)(1−𝑢1(𝑡))𝛽𝑠
𝜆5̇ = 𝑁
(𝜆1 − 𝜆2 ) + (ω + μ)𝜆5 ,
𝜆6̇ = −𝛾𝜆1 + (μ + γ)𝜆6 ,
with transversality condition 𝜆1 (𝑡𝑓 ) = 𝜆2 (𝑡𝑓 ) = 𝜆3 (𝑡𝑓 ) = 𝜆4 (𝑡𝑓 ) = 𝜆5 (𝑡𝑓 ) = 𝜆6 (𝑡𝑓 ) =
0.
• Stationery condition
Stationery conditions are obtained
𝜕𝐻 𝜕𝐻 𝜕𝐻
=( , ) = 𝟎,
𝜕𝒖 𝜕𝑢1 𝜕𝑢2
where
𝜕𝐻
= 𝐴1 𝑢1 + (𝜆1 − 𝜆2 )(1 − 𝜌)𝛽𝑠(𝑐 + 𝑢),
𝜕𝑢1
𝜕𝐻
= 𝐴2 𝑢2 + (𝜆6 − 𝜆4 )𝛼2 𝑣 + 𝜔𝑣𝜆4 ,
𝜕𝑢2
then we get optimal controls of 𝑢1∗ and 𝑢2∗ as follow
(𝜆2 (𝑡)−𝜆1 (𝑡))(1−𝜌)𝛽𝑆(𝑡)(𝐶(𝑡)+𝑈(𝑡))
𝑢1∗ (𝑡) = min {max {0, } , 1} ,
𝑁𝐴1
(𝜆6 (𝑡)−𝜆4 (𝑡))𝛼2𝑉(𝑡)
𝑢2∗ (𝑡) = min {max {0, } , 1} .
𝐴2

5. NUMERICAL SOLUTION
To see the effect of control 𝑢1 and 𝑢2 , numerical solution made by using initial condition
𝑆0 = 750.000, 𝐶0 = 100.000, 𝑃0 = 62.200, 𝑉0 = 3.273, 𝑈0 = 130.952, dan 𝑅0 =
64.350 with the weight value of objective function that will be minimizied 𝐴1 = 𝐴2 =
𝐴3 = 𝐴4 = 1. Parameter value that will be used on Table 2.

Tabel 2. Nilai Parameter

Parameter Nilai Sumber
𝝁 0,0107 [11]
𝝆 0.7 [7]
 Parameter Nilai Sumber
𝜷 0,99 [9]
𝜹𝟏 0,1259 [12]
𝜹𝟐 0,04 [7]
𝜹𝟑 0,13206 [14]
𝝈 0,17 [7]
𝒒 0,96 [7]
𝜶𝟏 0,1164 [12]
𝜶𝟐 0,40 [8]
𝜸 0,01 [11]
𝝎 0,025 [12]
𝜺 0,169055 [12]

Based on initial values and parameters above, the graph of numerical simulation results
is obtained as follows:

(a) (b)
Figure 1. The Diagram of the COVID-19 Spread Model (a) Susceptible and (b) Carrier

Simulation of the susceptible population without control, shown in Figure 2, decreased

from day 1 to day 7 and increased again until the end of the observation. Meanwhile,
susceptible individuals with control have increased from day 1 to the end of the observation.
Its mean, the susceptible population will also increase. These changes can be influenced by
several reasons, such as the presence of recovered individuals who are susceptible to
infection, the presence of comorbidities, low immunity, or the interaction of infected people.
In the carrier population, which is shown in Figure 3, before being given control, it will
increase until day 4 and gradually decrease and stabilize on day-60. The decrease in the
carrier population can be caused by the presence of infected individuals with mild symptoms
moving to a mild, severe, and unreported symptom population and recovering from the
disease. Meanwhile, control individuals experienced a decrease from day 1 to the end of the
observation, which decreased continuously and steadily from day 20.
 (a) (b)
Figure 3. The Diagram of the COVID-19 Spread Model (a) Mild Symptom and (b) Severe Symptom

In the mild symptom population, shown in Figure 4, before being given control, it will
decrease and gradually stabilize since the 60th day. However, after being given control, it will
decrease and be stable since the 30th day. The control provided in the form of the application
of PSBB at the beginning of the observation can minimize the carrier population which results
in the low number of individuals being quarantined due to being infected with the COVID-19
disease.
In the severe symptom population, shown in Figure 5, before being given control, it will
increase on day 1 to day 7. The population decreased and stabilized on the 60th day.
Meanwhile, the control population increased on day 1 to day 4 and decreased and stabilized on
day 40. The increase in population on day 1 can be caused by the presence of infected
individuals with mild/moderate symptoms developing into severe/critical infections.
Meanwhile, the population decline occurred due to individuals recovering after being given
control in the form of PK therapy and natural deaths and deaths from COVID-19 accompanied
by comorbidities.

(a) (b)
Figure 4. The Diagram of the COVID-19 Spread Model (a) Unreported and (b) Recover

In the population of unreported symptoms, which is shown in Figure 6, before being

given control, it will decrease from day 1 continuously until the end of the observation. The
control population also decreased from day 1 and was stable on day 50. The difference in
population changes before and after being controlled is caused by the existence of a control
in the form of PSBB to suppress the spread of disease that moves to the carrier population,
so that the population that moves from the carrier population to the unreported symptom
population will be less than without control.
In the recovered population, which is shown in Figure 7, before being given control, it
will increase until the end of the observation. The population with control will increase on
day 1 to day 3 and gradually decrease and stabilize on day 70. If the number of infected
individuals decreases, the number of recovered individuals will also decrease, and vice
versa. Individuals who recover will again become susceptible to infection. If the individual
continues to apply the PSBB, the susceptible population will increase until the end of the
observation.

(a) (b)
Figure 5. The Diagram of Control Function

The PSBB control curve (𝑢1 ) shows the maximum value on day 1 until the end of the
observation because under these conditions the number of populations susceptible to
infection is still very high, so maximum control must be given in the form of PSBB. The
maximum application of PSBB until the end of the observation must be carried out with full
consideration. If done optimally, the government could be stuck with a sustainable budget.
The need for the right strategy in dealing with the COVID-19 outbreak, namely prioritizing
the safety of the population of an area but also maximizing the economy due to the impact
of COVID-19. The application of control treatment for PK therapy (𝑢2 )can minimize the
severe symptom population moving to the recovering population on day 2 and then it will
gradually decrease until the end of the observation. This means that the longer the time, the
more individuals recover with PK therapy. The less maximal therapeutic effect can be
caused by the limited convalescent plasma. This therapy is a method of treatment using
plasma from people who have recovered from the same disease.
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