高盛：美国经济接近软着陆，投资者有进一步增加股票敞口的空间

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更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号：水木纪要
20\REPOST-USKickstart\Kickstart2020-11-
18 August 2023 | 4:20PM EDT
US Weekly Kickstart
As the US economy nears a soft landing, investors have room to further increase their exposure to equities
A slew of positive economic developments have driven US equity investors to sharply increase their equity exposure in 2023. Our US Equity
Sentiment Indicator rebounded from -1.8 in December to +1.5 in July, but has dropped to +0.8 this week. Clients ask us whether the current level of
equity length will limit upside for stocks. We find that US investors have room to further increase their exposure to equities. Should the US economy
continue on its path to a soft landing, we believe the recent decrease in equity length will be short-lived. The re-opening of the buyback blackout
window will provide a boost to equity demand in coming weeks although a flurry of expected equity issuance this fall may provide a partial offset.
David J. Kostin
Performance Table of Contents (212) 902-6781 |
david.kostin@gs.com
The S&P 500 was down 2.1% this week. Energy was the best- Markets and money flow 5
Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
performing sector (+0.6%) while Consumer Discretionary was the Market performance 6
worst-performing sector (-4.1%). We expect the S&P 500 will end Ben Snider
Sector performance 7 (212) 357-1744 |
2023 at 4500 (+3.0). ben.snider@gs.com
Style and size 12
Strategy baskets 13
S&P 500 earnings and valuation
Earnings, sales, and revisions 18 Ryan Hammond
Goldman Sachs Consensus (212) 902-5625 |
Valuation 19 ryan.hammond@gs.com
Portfolio Strategy Bottom-Up Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
Factors 21
2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E Fund flows, fund performance, and short interest 22 Cormac Conners
1fc9fa9cf8844a388c506688498547c5
EPS $224 $237 $222 $246 (212) 357-6308 |
Correlation, breadth, and dispersion 23
cormac.x.conners@gs.com
Growth 1% 5% 0% 11 % Economics 24 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
Goldman Sachs macro forecasts 25 Lily Calcagnini
NTM 2023E NTM 2023E
(212) 357-5913 |
P/E 18.8x 18.5x 18.7x 19.7x lily.calcagnini@gs.com
Source: I/B/E/S, FirstCall, Goldman Sachs Investment Research
Jenny Ma
(212) 357-5775 |
jenny.ma@gs.com
Daniel Chavez
(212) 357-7657 |
daniel.chavez@gs.com
Need access to view our baskets on GS Marquee? Email us.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see
the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.
更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加Ｖ：ｓｈｕｉｍｕ９８７０
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Goldman Sachs US Weekly Kickstart
Conversations we are having with clients: Assessing US equity investor length heading into fall
Following a 21% S&P 500 return in the first seven months of the year, the index popular retail stocks. The GS High Retail Sentiment Basket (GSCBHRSB) has
has fallen by 5% in August. Rising rates and uncertainty surrounding the path of outperformed the equal-weight S&P 500 by 62 pp so far this year (+66% vs. +4%).
China’s economy were among the concerns raised by equity investors in recent However, the basket has underperformed by 8 pp so far in August.
weeks. We roll forward our 3-month S&P 500 price target to our year-end target of
Despite the recent weakness in popular retail stocks, data show retail traders have
4500 (+3%). We maintain our 12-month S&P 500 price target of 4700 (+8%).
additional room to increase their equity length. The upswing in the AAII Bull-Bear
Investor equity positioning has also declined in the last few weeks. Our US spread suggests retail investors have been growing more bullish in recent weeks.
Equity Sentiment Indicator, which aggregates nine different positioning metrics into However, mirroring the recent underperformance of popular retail stocks, the spread fell
one aggregate score, registered +0.8 this week. In the seven readings from June 16 to sharply this week to 6% from 28% just two weeks ago (Exhibit 4). Data released from
July 28, the SI averaged +1.5—a level which has only been reached in 6% of readings FINRA this week show that margin balances increased in each of the first seven months of
since 2009. Over the last three readings, the SI has averaged +0.8 (Exhibits 1 and 2). the year and are now at the highest level since February 2022, scaled relative to US equity
However, the primary positioning story this year has been investors’ sharp market cap. However, retail traders have capacity to add length their portfolios as this level
increase in equity exposure. The SI registered -1.8 as recently as December. Our of margin balance is close to the 5-year average and is well below the peaks reached in
conversations with investors suggest that the swift re-risking by equity investors was March 2018 and October 2021.
driven by both positive economic developments and optimism around the prospects Flows into equity mutual fund and ETFs have also strengthened in recent
for productivity gains from widespread adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI). weeks. During the first five months of 2023, nearly $100 billion flowed out of US equity
Decelerating inflation data, such as last week’s CPI, have further confirmed that mutual funds and ETFs while $700 billion poured into money market funds and $151
disinflation is well under way. Investor perceptions of recession risk are also declining billion flowed into funds invested in US bonds. Since the start of June there has been
as economic growth data, like this week’s July retail sales print, have remained robust. a reversal in equity flows, with $24 billion of inflows (Exhibit 5). However, the relative
Mutual funds and hedge funds have been on the forefront of the YTD re-risking. US attractiveness of risk-free savings products, like money market mutual funds, will limit
equity mutual fund portfolio managers cut their cash allocations from 2.5% in November to equity inflows from households. This is apparent even in the data of recent months:
2.0% at the end of June, registering at the 12th percentile since 2010 (Exhibit 3). Similarly, While equity funds garnered inflows, money market and bond funds inflows far
according to GS Prime Brokerage, hedge fund net leverage increased from 61% at the outpaced those of equities, receiving a combined $197 bn over the same period.
start of the year to a high of 72% at the end of July, the most elevated level since June With the end of the 2Q earnings season, most companies have emerged from
2022. However, net leverage has declined sharply in August and registered 64% this week. their blackout periods, suggesting equity demand from buybacks may increase
Both hedge funds and mutual funds have room to increase their equity in the coming weeks. According to GS Buybacks desk, 95% of S&P 500 companies
have exited their blackout windows. August has historically been the strongest month
1fc9fa9cf8844a388c506688498547c5
exposures further if the market environment continues to improve. Although
hedge funds have lifted net exposures this year, net leverage currently stands below for buyback executions and this month appears no different: The desk reports that
the average level of the last 5 years, suggesting there is room for funds to increase executions so far in August have registered about 40% above the average 2023 level
their equity length in the event that a soft landing continues to materialize. Similarly, (Exhibit 6). Alongside elevated repurchase activity, our Buyback basket (GSTHREPO)
mutual fund cash allocations remain 50 bp above their all-time low of 1.5% in has historically performed particularly well following the 2Q earnings season. Despite
December 2021. If mutual funds cut their cash exposures to the 2021 low, that would a year-over-year decline in overall buyback executions, the basket has outperformed
represent an additional $49 billion of equity demand. the equal-weight S&P 500 by 4 pp YTD (+8% vs. +4%).
On the other hand, systematic investors have only limited room to increase However, a re-opening of equity capital markets may lead to additional supply as an
equity exposure. The CFTC Commitment of Traders data show that ex-dealer US offset to increasing corporate equity demand. Equity issuance has been anemic so far
equity futures net length is currently at its highest level relative to gross exposure in 2023, ranking as the third worst year since 1997 in dollars of capital raised YTD, lagging
since early 2022, though below the highs of recent years. Our colleagues on the only 2005 and 2022 (Exhibit 7). However, our IPO Barometer shows that the macro
futures desk estimate that equity CTA strategies hold elevated equity allocations and environment is growing more conducive for IPO activity (Exhibit 8). The number of follow-
are more likely to be sellers than buyers of stocks in coming weeks. on offerings hitting the US market have accelerated in recent weeks. A total of 31 follow-on
equity offerings have raised $9 billion so far in August as compared with 20 offerings raising
Alongside increased length from institutional investors, retail traders have
$1.5 billion in all of July. GS equity trading has also noted a recent pick up in registered block
increased engagement this year. The retail rebound is evident in price performance of
trades. These offerings may be early signs of a further acceleration in issuance this fall.
18 August 2023 2
Charts we are watching: Equity investor sentiment has increased sharply in 2023
Exhibit 1: Our US Equity Sentiment Indicator registered +0.8 this week Exhibit 2: The components of the US Equity Sentiment Indicator
as of August 18, 2023 as of August 18, 2023
3.0
Current 2022 YE
2.5 US Equity Sentiment Indicator
Hedge fund net exposure
2.0
Institutional
1.5 CFTC net futures positioning
investors
+1 stdev Change in US equity mutual
1.0 fund cash positions
0.8 Foreign
0.5 Foreign investor net demand
investors
0.0 Equity vs. bond fund flows
(0.5) Equity vs. cash fund flows
Retail
(1.0) and other
-1 stdev Active equity fund flows
(1.5)
Passive equity fund flows
(2.0)
Change in net margin debt
(2.5)
Sentiment Indicator
(3.0)
(3.5) 0 25 50 75 100
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Percentile rank vs. last 10 years
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 3: Mutual funds and hedge funds have increased equity exposure YTD Exhibit 4: Retail investors became less bullish on stocks this week
Net leverage data as of August 17, 2023; mutual fund cash data as of June 30, 2023 as of August 16, 2023
100 % 1.0% 50 %
Mutual fund and hedge fund equity exposure AAII Investor Sentiment:
95 % 40 % % Bullish - % Bearish
Higher equity
1fc9fa9cf8844a388c506688498547c5
90 % 1.5%
30 %
exposure
85 %
2.0% 20 %
80 % Hedge fund 2.0%
net leverage 10 %
75 % (left axis)
0%
70 % 2.5%
(10)%
65 %
US equity mutual fund 64%
60 % cash as % of assets 3.0% (20)%
(right axis, inverted)
55 % (30)% 8-week
average
50 % 3.5% (40)%
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Source: GS Prime Brokerage, ICI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: American Association of Individual Investors, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
18 August 2023 3
Charts we are watching: Equity fund flows, buybacks and equity capital markets
Exhibit 5: Equity ETF and mutual fund inflows have picked up in recent weeks Exhibit 6: Our Buyback basket typically outperforms following 2Q earnings
as of August 16, 2023 as of August 17, 2023
$120 14 % 90 %
Monthly flows into US equity ETFs Buyback basket monthly hit rate
$100
and mutual funds of outperformance vs. S&P 500
12 % (right axis) 80 %
$80 (billions)
Average share of annual
$60 Nov. 10 % repurchase spending 70 %
2020 3m (left axis)
$40 average
$20 8% 60 %
$0
6% 50 %
$20
$40 Apr. 4% 40 %
$60 Dec. 2022
Dec.
2018
$80 2022 2% 30 %
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: EPFR, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 7: Issuance has been quite weak in 2023 despite improving macro Exhibit 8: GS IPO Barometer suggests macro environment is conducive for IPOs
as of August 17, 2023 as of July 31, 2023
250
$400 Macro more
Total US equity and equity-linked issuance $379 GS IPO Issuance Barometer
conducive to
through August 17th (indexed to 100 = median number of IPOs) Jun. 2021:
$350 IPO activity
(IPOs, follow-ons, SPACs, converts; $ billions) 201
1fc9fa9cf8844a388c506688498547c5
200
$300 $274
$250 150
$200 $178
$189
$169
$150 100
91
$120 2023
$105
$90 $93
$100
$61 50
$50
Sep. 2022: 7
$0 0
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Source: Dealogic, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
18 August 2023 4
Markets and Money Flow

S&P 500 level and EPS 10-yr. Treasury Yields Fed Funds Target Rate
5750 245 5.0 % 6%
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Fed Funds
2024E
5500 Goldman Sachs 240
$237 Futures 5% Target Rate GS forecast
Adjusted 4.5 % Current:
EPS Forecast 235 4.29% market 2024E:
5250
S&P 500 adjusted EPS

4.6%
5000 230 4.0 % 4%
2023E Futures
S&P 500 Price
2022A $224 market

4750 $222 225 2023E:
3.5 % 3.90% 2024E: 3%
2023E 220 3.75%
4500 4500 GS
4250 Current 215 3.0 % forecast 2%
4370
4000 210
S&P 500 2.5 % 1%
3750 Price 205
3500 200 2.0 % 0%

Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-24
Mar-25
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
2028
2032
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-24
Mar-25
Sentiment Indicator 10-yr Real Treasury Yields Volatility
2.0 2.5 % 40
1.5 2% VIX
2.0 %
SI>1.0 = STRETCHED positioning
1.0
0.8 1.5 %
0.5
30
Z-Score
0.0
1.0 %
1fc9fa9cf8844a388c506688498547c5
(0.5)
(1.5)<SI<(1.0) = LIGHT positioning 0.5 %
(1.0)
(1.5) 20 18
0.0 %
SI<(1.5) = EXTREMELY LIGHT
(2.0)
(0.5)%
(2.5)
(3.0) as of November 4, 2022 (1.0)% 10

Jun-22
Jun-23
Mar-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Dec-23
Jun-22
Jun-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Jun-22
Jun-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Note: Sentiment Indicator measures stock positioning across retail, institutional, and foreign
investors versus the past 12 months. Readings below -1.0 or Asabove +1.0 indicate
of December extreme
17, 2021
positions that are significant in predicting future returns.
Source: Haver, EPFR, FactSet, CFTC, and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Pricing in this report as of August 17, 2023, unless otherwise indicated.

18 August 2023 5
Market Performance: YTD absolute and risk-adjusted returns

Total Return Risk Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio)
Bitcoin 61 Nasdaq 100 0.5
COMM SERVICES 40 COMM SERVICES 0.5
Nasdaq 100 35 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 0.5
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 35 Russell 1000 Growth 0.5
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY 29 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY 0.5
Russell 1000 Growth 26 Bitcoin 0.5
S&P 500 15 MSCI Developed Markets 0.5
MSCI Developed Markets 13 S&P 500 0.5
INDUSTRIALS 9 HY Credit 0.5
Russell 2000 6 INDUSTRIALS 0.5
HY Credit 6 Gold 0.5
MATERIALS 5 Russell 1000 Value 0.5
Russell 1000 Value 4 MSCI Emerging Markets 0.5
MSCI Emerging Markets 4 Russell 2000 0.5
Crude Oil (S&P GSCI) 3 MATERIALS 0.5
ENERGY 2 $/Euro 0.5
$/Euro 2 IG Credit 0.5
1fc9fa9cf8844a388c506688498547c5
IG Credit 1 Crude Oil (S&P GSCI) 0.5
FINANCIALS 0 ENERGY 0.5
Gold 0 FINANCIALS 0.5
CONSUMER STAPLES (1) REAL ESTATE (0.5)
REAL ESTATE (1) CONSUMER STAPLES (0.5)
HEALTH CARE (1) HEALTH CARE (0.5)
10-year US Treasury (1) 10-year US Treasury (0.5)
UTILITIES (9) UTILITIES (0.5)
(40) (20) 0 20 40 60 80 100 (1.5) (1.0) (0.5) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
Note: Crude Oil (S&P GSCI) return represents S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index total return. Spot change equals (2)% YTD.
Source: Haver, FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
18 August 2023 6
Sector Baskets Performance
108
Cyclicals vs. Defensives Domestic vs. Global
105
CYCLICALS DOMESTIC
106 outperforming outperforming
104 100
102
100 95
98
90
96
94
85
92 DEFENSIVES GLOBAL
outperforming outperforming
90
80
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Dec-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Dec-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Performance and fundamentals of our sector baskets
Bloomberg % of
Ticker # of S&P 500 Non-US Earnings Growth Sales Growth NTM LTM Div Total Return
Basket <GSSBXXXX> Stocks Cap Beta Sales 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E P/E P/B Yield 1 Wk 1 Mo 3 Mo LTM YTD
1fc9fa9cf8844a388c506688498547c5
Cyclicals CYCL 292 55 % 1.1 35% 0% 11 % (2)% 5% 18.0x 4.0x 1.5 % (2.4)% (4)% 8% 7% 19 %
Defensives DEFS 208 45 0.9 23 1 13 5 5 19.6 4.7 1.7 (1.9) (2) 3 1 11
Global GLBL 273 65 % 1.1 45% (4)% 13 % (1)% 5% 19.9x 5.8x 1.4 % (2.0)% (4)% 7% 9% 21 %
Domestic DOMS 227 35 0.9 15 9 10 5 5 16.7 2.8 1.9 (2.5) (2) 3 (5) 4
Global Cyclicals GCYC 173 34 % 1.2 45% (8)% 12 % (4)% 4% 19.3x 5.4x 1.4 % (2.5)% (6)% 9% 10 % 24 %
Global Defensives GDEF 100 32 1.0 45 0 15 3 6 20.6 6.2 1.3 (1.6) (2) 5 9 18
Domestic Cyclicals DCYC 119 21 1.0 21 14 10 3 6 16.2 2.8 1.6 (2.6) (1) 7 4 9
Domestic Defensives DDEF 108 13 0.8 10 1 8 6 5 17.6 2.9 2.5 (2.5) (3) (1) (12) (0)
Services-providing SERV 286 55 % 1.1 20% 13 % 11 % 6% 6% 18.3x 3.6x 1.5 % (2.3)% (3)% 5% 2% 15 %
Goods-producing GOOD 214 45 1.0 42 (12) 12 (4) 4 19.2 5.3 1.7 (2.0) (4) 6 7 15
S&P 500 500 100 % 1.0 29% 0% 11 % 2% 4% 18.7x 4.2x 1.6 % (2.1)% (3)% 6% 4% 15 %
Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
18 August 2023 7
Sectors – Relative Performance vs. S&P 500

Recommended Sector Positioning
Consumer Discretionary Financials Information Technology Goldman S&P
105 108 115 Sachs 500
Sectors Weighting Wgt YTD
Energy 5% 2%
100 104 110 Consumer Staples 7 (1)
Health Care Overw eight 14 (1)
Telecommunication Services 1 (13)
95 100 105 Cons. Discretionary ex. Autos & Durables 8 27
Softw are & Services 11 27
Materials 2 5
90 96 100 1 4
Consumer Durables & Apparel Neutral
Financials 13 0
92 95 Real Estate 2 (1)
85
Utilities 3 (9)
Semiconductors & Semi Equipment 7 64
80 88 90 Automobiles & Components 2 58
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
8 50
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Media & Entertainment Underw eight

Technology Hardw are & Equipment 9 30
Industrials 9 9
S&P 500 100% 15 %
Industrials Energy Materials Real Estate

115 150 110 110
108 105
140
110 106
100
130 104
102 95
105 120
100 90
110 98
85
100 96
100 80
94
95 90 92 75
Jun-22
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
1fc9fa9cf8844a388c506688498547c5
Consumer Staples Health Care Communication Services Utilities
120 120 105 120
115 115
115 100
110
110
110 95 105
105
105 100
90
100
95
100 85
95 90
95 90 80 85
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
18 August 2023 8
Industry Groups – Relative Performance vs. S&P 500 and 3 largest stocks
Automobiles & Components Consumer Durables & Apparel Consumer Services Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail
110 110 120 115
TSLA 82% MCD 27% COST 36%
100 F 6% 115 BKNG 15% 110 WMT 32%
GM 6% 105 SBUX 15% TGT 9%
90 110 105
100
80 105 100
95
70 100 95
90 NKE 44%
60 DHI 12% 95 90
LEN 10%
50 85 90 85
Jun-22
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Financial Services Insurance Software & Services Telecommunication Services

106 120 115 125
BRK.B 23% MMC 12% MSFT 58%
104 120
V 14% CB 11% ADBE 6%
MA 12% 115 PGR 10% 110 115
102 CRM 5%
110
100 110 105 105
100
98
95
96 105 100
90
94 85
100 95 VZ 44%
80
92 T 32%
75 TMUS 25%
90 95 90 70
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Technology Hardware & Equipment Pharmaceuticals Biotechnology & Life Sciences Banks
1fc9fa9cf8844a388c506688498547c5
Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
115 130 125 110
NVDA 40% JNJ 15%
110 120 120 LLY 14% 105
AVGO 13%
AMD 6% MRK 9%
115 100
105 110
110 95
100 100
105 90
95 90
100 85
AAPL 80% JPM 39%
90 CSCO 7% 80 95 80 BAC 18%
APH 2% WFC 14%
85 70 90 75
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jun-22
Jun-23
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Source: FactSet, compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
18 August 2023 9
Industry Groups – Relative Performance vs. S&P 500 and 3 largest stocks (continued)
Capital Goods Commercial & Professional Services Transportation Energy
120 112 102 145
CAT 7% 140
BA 6% 110 100
115 RTX 6% 135
98
108 130
110 96 125
106
94 120
105 104 115
92
110
102 90
100 ADP 23% UNP 23% 105 XOM 27%
100 WM 13% UPS 21% CVX 17%
88 100
CTAS 9% CSX 10% COP 9%
95 86 95
98
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Materials Food Beverage & Tobacco Household & Personal Products Health Care Equipment & Services
110 125 120 115
108 LIN 20%
APD 7% 120
106 SHW 7% 115 110
104 115
102 110 105
100 110
98 105 100
96 105
PEP 20% PG 66% UNH 22%
94 100 100 95
KO 19% CL 11% ABT 9%
92 PM 12% 5%
KMB 8% ELV
90 95 95 90
Jun-22
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail Media & Entertainment Utilities
1fc9fa9cf8844a388c506688498547c5
110 105 105 120
AMZN 58%
105 100 115
100 HD 16%
100 LOW 6% 110
95
95
95 105
90
90 90 100
85
85 95
PLD 13% 85 GOOGL 50% NEE 15%
80 AMT 10% 80 META 22% 90 SO 8%
EQIX 8% CMCSA 7% DUK 8%
75 80 75 85
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Sep-22
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Source: FactSet, compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
18 August 2023 10
S&P 500 Sector and Industry Group Performance

Weight 1 Week 1 Month 3 Months Last 12 Months YTD
S&P 500 100 % (2.1)% (3.2)% 6% 4% 15 %
Energy 5% (0.6)% 8.2 % 12 % 18 % 2% Top quartile
Health Care 14 (1.0) 1.8 2 2 (1) Bottom quartile
S Utilities 3 (1.7) (4.4) (4) (16) (9)

E Information Technology 27 (1.7) (7.8) 8 12 35
C Communication Services 9 (2.2) (0.1) 8 11 40
T Industrials 9 (2.4) (2.7) 7 8 9
O Financials 13 (2.5) (1.7) 5 (3) 0
R Materials 2 (2.5) (2.9) 4 3 5
Consumer Staples 7 (2.6) (1.6) (3) (2) (1)
Real Estate 2 (3.3) (5.8) (0) (18) (1)
Consumer Discretionary 10 (4.1) (6.2) 10 (3) 29 Region Cycle
Pharmaceuticals Biotechnology & Life Sciences 8% 0.2 % 6.7 % 6% 6% 0% Global Defensives
Telecommunication Services 1 (0.6) 3.0 (9) (19) (13) Domestic Defensives
Insurance 2 (0.6) 1.1 3 4 (0) Domestic Cyclicals
Energy 5 (0.6) 8.2 12 18 2 Global Cyclicals
Commercial & Professional Services 1 (1.4) (2.2) 8 7 13 Domestic Cyclicals
I Software & Services 11 (1.7) (7.1) 5 8 27 Global Defensives
N Utilities 3 (1.7) (4.4) (4) (16) (9) Domestic Defensives
D Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment 7 (1.7) (8.3) 20 40 64 Global Cyclicals
U Technology Hardware & Equipment 9 (1.8) (8.2) 3 2 30 Global Cyclicals
S Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail 6 (2.2) 0.1 11 (0) 29 Domestic Cyclicals
T Financial Services 8 (2.2) (2.0) 5 2 5 Domestic Cyclicals
1fc9fa9cf8844a388c506688498547c5
R Capital Goods 6 (2.4) (2.7) 7 12 8 Global Cyclicals
Y Media & Entertainment 8 (2.4) (0.5) 10 16 50 Global Defensives
Food Beverage & Tobacco 3 (2.4) (2.7) (4) (1) (2) Global Defensives
G Materials 2 (2.5) (2.9) 4 3 5 Global Cyclicals
R Health Care Equipment & Services 6 (2.7) (4.4) (2) (3) (3) Domestic Defensives
O Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail 2 (2.7) (0.6) (0) (4) 6 Domestic Defensives
U Household & Personal Products 1 (2.7) (0.4) (4) (3) (2) Global Defensives
P Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) 2 (3.3) (5.8) (0) (18) (1) Domestic Defensives
Transportation 2 (3.5) (2.9) 7 (4) 9 Domestic Cyclicals
Consumer Services 2 (3.5) (3.3) 2 18 20 Global Cyclicals
Consumer Durables & Apparel 1 (3.7) (5.6) (3) 2 4 Global Cyclicals
Banks 3 (4.3) (2.8) 6 (12) (6) Domestic Cyclicals
Automobiles & Components 2 (9.5) (22.9) 21 (25) 58 Global Cyclicals
18 August 2023 11
Style and Size

Growth vs. Value Large-cap vs. Small-cap
115 110
Growth outperforming Russell 1000 outperforming
108
110
106
105
104
100 102
95 100
98
90
96
85
94
Value outperforming Russell 2000 outperforming
80 92
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Sectors: Russell 1000 Growth vs. Value Sectors: Russell 1000 vs. Russell 2000
1-Week (% Return) YTD (% Return) 1-Week (% Return) YTD (% Return)
1fc9fa9cf8844a388c506688498547c5
Russell Sector Growth Value ∆ (bps) Growth Value ∆ (bps) Russell Sector R1000 R2000 ∆ (bps) R1000 R2000 ∆ (bps)
Financials (1) (3) 176 8 1 680 Health Care (1) (4) 321 (0) 0 (67)
Technology (2) (3) 142 43 42 75 Technology (2) (4) 195 43 13 2,926
Consumer Staples (2) (3) 99 0 (4) 408 Financials (3) (4) 169 2 (4) 620
Industrials (2) (3) 63 9 10 (20) Energy (1) (2) 117 1 10 (934)
Materials (2) (2) 56 12 4 788 Utilities (2) (3) 100 (8) (7) (102)
Utilities (2) (2) 19 1 (9) 932 Materials (2) (3) 69 6 4 159
Cons Discretionary (4) (4) (21) 32 8 2,421 Industrials (3) (3) 48 9 17 (716)
Health Care (1) (1) (41) 5 (4) 981 Cons Discretionary (4) (4) 41 23 14 951
Energy (1) (1) (57) (5) 2 (739) Consumer Staples (3) (2) (40) (2) 3 (504)
Index (2) (2) 11 26 4 2,138 Index (2) (4) 146 15 6 871

18 August 2023 12
US Portfolio Strategy Baskets are available on GS Marquee platform

YTD Performance Ticker 1 wk
Total Return
1 mo YTD
P/E
NTM
EV/Sales `23 EPS
NTM growth
Dual Beta GSTHBETA (4.7)% (7)% 7% 16x 2.9x (22.1)%
Macroeconomic
Hedge Fund "VIP" List 22 Interest Rate Sensitive GSTHUSTY (4.1) (4) 12 13 1.7 3.4
Strong Balance Sheet 19 High Tax GSTHHTAX (2.7) (1) 4 16 2.0 4.2
High Liquidity 17 Low Tax GSTHLTAX (3.2) (6) 16 17 3.9 3.5
High Growth Investment Ratio 17
High Labor Cost GSTHHLAB (3.0) (6) 8 18 2.9 3.6
Low Tax 16
Low Labor Cost GSTHLLAB (2.9) (2) 6 14 2.5 2.4
Low Operating Leverage 15
Geographic
S&P 500 Domestic Sales GSTHAINT (2.6)% (1)% 1% 15x 2.0x (2.2)%
15
Sales
International Sales 14 International Sales GSTHINTL (3.6) (5) 14 19 3.8 0.5
BRICs Sales 12 BRICs Sales GSTHBRIC (4.1) (5) 12 17 4.3 (5.5)
High Sharpe Ratio 12 Western Europe Sales GSTHWEUR (2.4) (8) 5 16 2.9 0.4
Interest Rate Sensitive 12 High Revenue Growth GSTHREVG (3.8)% (7)% 11 % 20x 4.0x 18.6 %
Mutual Fund Underweight Positions 12 High Operating Leverage GSTHOPHI (3.2) (5) 6 16 1.9 8.4
Debt Issuers 11 Low Operating Leverage GSTHOPLO (2.6) (4) 15 21 4.8 2.5
Fundamental
High Revenue Growth 11 Stable Growers GSTHSTGR (1.7) (1) 5 20 3.7 9.0
Long Duration 10 ROE Growth GSTHGROE (2.7) (4) 9 18 3.0 16.6
ROE Growth 9 High Quality Stock GSTHQUAL (2.5) (2) 6 23 4.2 6.4
Mutual Fund Overweight Positions 9 Long Duration GSTHLDUR (3.4) (11) 10 37 4.6 39.3
Buyback 8 Short Duration GSTHSDUR (2.7) (3) 6 11 1.6 (30.7)
Weak Balance Sheet 8 Strong Balance Sheet GSTHSBAL (2.8) (7) 19 28 5.2 6.1
High Labor Cost 8 Weak Balance Sheet GSTHWBAL (3.8) (3) 8 13 2.2 4.2
Debt Reducers 7
Capex and R&D GSTHCAPX (3.8)% (4)% 7% 12x 2.3x (5.4)%
Capex and R&D 7
Total Cash Return to Shareholders GSTHCASH (2.8) (4) 6 13 2.0 (3.5)
Uses of Cash
Dual Beta 7
Buyback GSTHREPO (3.2) (5) 8 13 1.9 (3.9)
Short Duration 6
Dividend Growth GSTHDIVG (2.7) (3) 6 12 2.9 (4.0)
High Operating Leverage 6
High Growth Investment Ratio GSTHHGIR (3.3) (7) 17 18 3.5 13.6
Total Cash Return to Shareholders 6
Debt Issuers GSTHDISS (3.5) (5) 11 16 3.1 (2.7)
Dividend Growth 6
Debt Reducers GSTHDRED (3.1) (4) 7 14 2.1 (0.5)
High Quality Stock 6
1fc9fa9cf8844a388c506688498547c5
6 Liquidity
Low Labor Cost High Sharpe Ratio GSTHSHRP (2.9)% (3)% 12 % 14x 2.2x 3.7 %
Risk &
Stable Growers 5 High Liquidity GSTHHLIQ (1.9) (2) 17 18 3.6 7.2

Low Hedge Fund Concentration 5 Low Liquidity GSTHLLIQ (3.6) (10) 4 20 3.7 (0.9)
Western Europe Sales 5
Hedge Fund "VIP" List GSTHHVIP (2.4)% (4)% 22 % 21x 4.8x
Hedge Funds &
Low Liquidity 4
Mutual Funds
Hedge Fund Very Important Shorts GSTHVISP (2.2) (1) 4 19 3.5 (4.2)
Hedge Fund Very Important Shorts 4
High Hedge Fund Concentration GSTHHFHI (4.4) (4) (0) 13 2.6 (9.2)
High Tax 4
Low Hedge Fund Concentration GSTHHFSL (1.7) (2) 5 20 2.4 5.1
Domestic Sales 1 Mutual Fund Overweight Positions GSTHMFOW (1.9) (1) 9 19 4.3 11.5
High Hedge Fund Concentration (0)
Mutual Fund Underweight Positions GSTHMFUW (2.0)
( ) (2)
( ) 12 22 4.5 5.5
(10) (5) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
S&P 500 Median 17 2.9 3.9
For details and constituents of our baskets see Anatomy of our US Portfolio Strategy Thematic and Sector Baskets, March 8, 2023
18 August 2023 13
US Portfolio Strategy Baskets – Relative performance vs. S&P 500

Macroeconomics Geographic Sales
Dual Beta Interest Rate Sensitive US Sales International Sales
110 110 115 114
Bloomberg <ticker> GSTHUSTY GSTHAINT GSTHINTL
112
GSTHBETA
105 110
105 110
108
100 106
100 105 104
95 102
95 100 100
90 98
96
90 95
85 94
92
80 85 90 90
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Low vs. High Labor Cost High vs. Low Tax Rate BRICs Sales Western Europe Sales
106 112 110 108
GSTHLLAB/ GSTHHTAX/ GSTHBRIC GSTHWEUR
GSTHHLAB 110
104
GSTHLTAX 108 106
108
106 106
102 104
1fc9fa9cf8844a388c506688498547c5
104
104
100 102 102
100 102
98 100
98 100
96 96 98
98
94
94 96
92 96
90
92 94 94
88
90 86 92 92
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
18 August 2023 14
US Portfolio Strategy Baskets – Relative performance vs. S&P 500 (continued)

Fundamentals
High vs. Low Long vs. Short
Revenue Growth Operating Leverage ROE Growth Duration
108 106 112 110
Bloomberg <ticker> GSTHOPHI/ GSTHGROE GSTHLDUR/
106 GSTHREVG 104 GSTHOPLO 110 GSTHSDUR
100
104 102
108
102 100
106 90
100 98
104
98 96 80
102
96 94
100 70
94 92
98
92 90
60
90 88 96
88 86 94 50
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
High Quality Strong vs. Weak Balance Sheet High vs. Low Adjusted FCF Stable Growers
106 125 115 108
GSTHQUAL GSTHHACF/ GSTHSTGR
GSTHSBAL/
GSTHWBAL GSTHLACF
104 120 106
110
1fc9fa9cf8844a388c506688498547c5
102 115 104
105
100 110 102

100
98 105 100
95
96 100 98
94 95 90
96
92 90 85 94
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
18 August 2023 15

Uses of Cash Risk & Liquidity
Capex and R&D High Growth Investment Ratio Debt Reducers vs. Issuers High Sharpe Ratio
108 108 106 115
Bloomberg <ticker> GSTHHGIR GSTHDRED/ GSTHSHRP
105 GSTHDISS
106 GSTHCAPX
106 104
104
103
110
102 102
104
100 101
100
98 102 105
99
96 98
100
94 97
100
96
92
98 95
90
94
88 96 93 95
Jun-22
Jun-23
Jun-22
Jun-23
Jun-22
Jun-23
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Dec-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Dec-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Dec-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Total Cash Return Buybacks Dividend Growth Low vs. High Liquidity
110 106 115 110
GSTHCASH GSTHREPO GSTHDIVG GSTHLLIQ/
GSTHHLIQ
108
105
104
1fc9fa9cf8844a388c506688498547c5
110
106
100
102
104
105 95
102
100
90
100
100
98
85
98
96 96 95 80
Jun-22
Jun-23
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Dec-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Dec-23
Jun-22
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Dec-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
18 August 2023 16

Hedge Fund Ownership Mutual Fund Ownership
Hedge Fund VIP Short Positions Overweight Positions Underweight Positions
105 108 110 110
Bloomberg <ticker> GSTHVISP GSTHMFOW GSTHMFUW
GSTHHVIP 106 108
108
100 104 106
106
102 104
95 100 102 104
98 100
102
90 96 98
100
94 96
85 92 94 98
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
High Concentration Low Concentration
105 116
GSTHHFHI GSTHHFSL
114
100
112
1fc9fa9cf8844a388c506688498547c5
110
95
108
90 106
104
85
102
100
80
98
75 96
Jun-22
Jun-23
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Dec-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
18 August 2023 17
S&P 500 Earnings, Sales and Revisions

GS Top-Down EPS & Consensus Bottom-Up EPS Earnings & Sales Revisions (Consensus)
Adjusted EPS Adjusted EPS EPS REVISIONS SALES REVISIONS
GS Top-Down Consensus Bottom-Up 1 month 3 month 1 month 3 month
Contribution EPS growth Contribution EPS growth 23E 24E 23E 24E 23E 24E 23E 24E
2022A 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E
Consumer Discretionary 7.1 % 5.0 % 8.7 % 5.5 % 0.6 % 0.5 % 1.0 % 0.8 %
Information Technology $42 $43 $47 2% 10 % $43 $49 1% 16 %
Communication Services 3.1 3.6 3.3 4.0 0.6 1.0 0.6 1.0
Financials 37 38 40 4 5 40 42 8 7
Real Estate 2.4 (1.3) 1.8 (1.8) NM NM NM NM
Health Care 37 35 37 (6) 6 33 36 (10) 9
S&P 500 ex. Energy 1.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6
Communication Services 18 21 22 14 6 21 25 14 19
S&P 500 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 (0.1) 0.1
Industrials 17 19 19 9 2 19 21 11 12
Consumer Discretionary 14 15 16 10 6 18 20 25 13 Financials 0.7 (0.3) (0.6) (1.4) NM NM NM NM
Consumer Staples 13 15 15 12 3 14 15 7 8 Industrials 0.5 0.0 1.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6
Materials 7 7 7 (2) (0) 6 6 (18) 6 Information Technology 0.3 (0.6) 2.7 2.6 (0.1) (0.4) 0.6 0.7
Utilities 6 6 7 5 7 6 7 10 6 Consumer Staples 0.2 (0.2) (0.3) (1.1) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) (0.5)
Real Estate 6 6 6 (3) 3 6 7 1 9 Energy 0.2 1.4 (6.7) (4.1) (2.1) (1.8) (5.1) (4.2)
S&P 500 ex-Energy 198 205 217 4 6 205 229 4 12 Health Care (0.5) (0.6) (4.5) (1.2) 0.8 0.6 1.2 1.2
Energy 24 19 20 (19) 0 17 17 (31) 3 Utilities (0.7) (0.0) (0.9) 0.1 NM NM NM NM
S&P 500 EPS $222 $224 $237 1% 5% $222 $246 0% 11 % Materials (1.1) (1.4) (3.5) (3.0) (2.3) (1.7) (3.6) (2.1)
Earnings Growth (consensus bottom-up) Sales Growth (consensus bottom-up)

2023 Earnings Per Share Growth Annual 2023E Sales Per Share Growth Annual
1QA 2QE 3QE 4QE 2023E 2024E 1QA 2QE 3QE 4QE 2023E 2024E
1fc9fa9cf8844a388c506688498547c5
Consumer Discretionary 23 % 32 % 18 % 27 % 25 % 13 % Consumer Staples 11 % 9% 8% 8% 9% 3%
Communication Services (16) 6 30 45 14 19 Consumer Discretionary 9 10 6 5 7 6
Industrials 20 11 10 6 11 12 Health Care 6 8 7 7 7 5
Utilities (20) 7 17 52 10 6 S&P 500 ex. Energy 5 5 5 5 5 5
Financials 4 8 10 9 8 7 Industrials 8 4 2 2 4 1
Consumer Staples 2 11 5 9 7 8 S&P 500 4 1 2 3 2 4
S&P 500 ex. Energy (5) 3 5 13 4 12 Information Technology (2) 0 2 7 2 9
Information Technology (10) 2 2 12 1 16 Communication Services (1) 0 3 3 1 4
Real Estate 7 4 (6) (0) 1 9 Materials (3) (8) (4) (2) (4) (2)
S&P 500 (3) (4) (0) 9 0 11 Energy (3) (28) (21) (11) (16) 2
Health Care (16) (14) (10) 3 (10) 9
Materials (21) (24) (16) (8) (18) 6
Energy 17 (51) (41) (28) (31) 3
Source: FirstCall, I/B/E/S, FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
18 August 2023 18
Valuation: Absolute and Relative

S&P 500 NTM P/E S&P 500 Cost of Equity = ERP + 10-yr UST
30
25 18.7 14
P/E
NTM P/E (x)
20
15 12
10
10-yr rolling avg 10
5 Cost of
0
8
Equity
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
6
10 Year
S&P 500 LTM P/B 4
UST
6
ERP
5 4.2 2
P/B
LTM P/B (x)
4
3 0
2 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
10-yr rolling avg
1
We estimate the equity risk premium (ERP) using our DDM framework to model expected future cash flows.
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 We solve for the cost of equity that implies the market is at ‘fair value’ and then deduct the 10-year US treasury.
Current aggregate valuation metrics - absolute Current relative valuation vs. historical average (Z-score)
10-year 30-year
EV/ EV/ Price/ FCF PEG NTM EV/ EV/ Price/ FCF PEG Median Median
Sales EBITDA Book Yield Ratio P/E Sales EBITDA Book Yield Ratio P/E Z-Score Z-Score
S&P 500 2.7x 13.3x 4.2x 3.8 % 1.8x 18.7x S&P 500 0.8 0.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.3 1.0 1.1
1fc9fa9cf8844a388c506688498547c5
Energy 1.4 5.4 2.4 9.9 NM 11.7 Real Estate NM NM (2.4) NM (0.9) (2.0) (2.0) (0.8)
Financials NM NM 1.9 NM 1.0 13.4 Comm Services (1.9) (2.1) (1.4) (1.7) (2.8) (2.2) (2.0) (1.6)
Real Estate NM NM 2.9 NM 1.9 15.9 Financials NM NM (1.1) NM (1.6) (2.2) (1.6) (1.2)
Utilities NM 11.6 2.0 (7.0) 2.3 16.1 Energy (1.0) (1.0) 0.1 (1.6) NM (0.8) (1.0) (1.4)
Comm Services 3.4 9.8 3.4 5.0 0.9 16.5 Cons Staples (1.1) (0.0) (0.8) 0.6 (1.1) (0.6) (0.7) (0.6)
Health Care 1.9 13.4 4.8 5.3 2.5 17.4 Materials (1.4) (1.0) (1.0) (0.3) 1.8 (0.2) (0.6) (0.5)
Materials 2.3 10.3 2.9 4.0 2.8 17.5 Utilities NM (0.5) (2.1) 3.4 (1.7) 0.0 (0.5) (0.0)
Industrials 2.4 13.0 5.5 3.9 1.5 18.1 Industrials (1.0) (0.4) (0.9) (0.4) (0.6) (0.3) (0.5) 0.0
Cons Staples 1.6 14.1 6.1 3.8 2.6 19.3 Health Care (1.2) (0.2) (1.3) (0.8) 0.9 0.1 (0.5) (0.8)
Cons Discr 2.4 15.9 9.2 2.7 2.4 24.0 Cons Discr (0.4) (0.1) 0.1 (0.1) 2.2 (0.3) (0.1) 0.8
Info Tech 6.9 21.5 10.3 3.0 2.2 25.4 Info Tech 2.2 2.8 1.1 1.7 0.8 2.3 1.9 1.3
Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, FirstCall, and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
18 August 2023 19
Valuation: Sector baskets

1.5x 1.9x
Relative NTM P/E 1.8x Relative NTM P/E
1.4x
Cyclicals vs. Defensives Global more Global vs. Domestic
Cyclicals more 1.7x
1.3x expensive expensive
1.6x
1.2x 1.5x
1.1x 1.4x
1.0x 1.3x
75th %ile 1.2x
0.9x
1.1x
0.8x 1.0x
25th %ile
0.7x 0.9x
0.6x 0.8x
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Cyclicals vs. S&P 500 Defensives vs. S&P 500

1.2x
1.4x
Relative NTM P/E Relative NTM P/E
Cyclicals vs. S&P 500 Defensives vs. S&P 500
Cyclicals more 1.3x Defensives more
1.1x expensive expensive
1.2x
1fc9fa9cf8844a388c506688498547c5
1.0x 1.1x
1.0x
0.9x
0.9x
0.8x 0.8x
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Source: Compustat, FactSet, I/B/E/S, and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
18 August 2023 20
Factors: Performance and Valuation

Momentum Growth vs. Value
115 115
110 110
Value Factor
<GSMEFVAL>
(low vs. high)
105 105 Growth Factor
<GSMEFGRO>
(high vs. low)
100 100
95 95
Momentum Factor
90
<GSMEFMOM> 90
(leaders vs. laggards)
85 85
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Dec-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
2.5
current valuation vs. historical averages
2.0
More expensive
Relative to last 10 years
1.5
Relative to last 35 years
Standard deviation of
1.0
0.5
1fc9fa9cf8844a388c506688498547c5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0 Factor valuation

P/E multiple z-scores
-1.5 compared with history
-2.0
Size Dividend yield Volatility Valuation Momentum Returns Growth Balance sheet Margins
(small vs. large) (high vs. low) (low vs. high) (low vs. high) (leaders vs. (high vs. low) (high vs. low) (strong vs. (high vs. low)
laggards) weak)
Source: Compustat, FactSet, I/B/E/S, and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
18 August 2023 21
Fund Flows, Fund Performance, and Short Interest

Domestic equity fund flows Mutual Fund Performance
25 25
% outperf
Domestic equity fund flows Mutual Fund Style YTD Average Distribution of
20
(4wk avg) Large-Cap Core 21% YTD return Large-Cap Core
% of Large-Cap Core Mutual Funds

20 Large-Cap Growth 26 11.1 % Mutual Fund
15 Large-Cap Value 44
YTD returns
10 Total 29%
$ Billions
15
5 ETFs
Net
0 flows 10
(5) Mutual
funds
(10) 5
(15)
Mar-22
Mar-23
Dec-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
0
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 22.0 24.0 26.0
YTD total return (%)
Weekly fund flows Short Interest

EPFR Mutual Fund Flows EPFR ETF Fund Flows 2.0%
Total Total
Total 4-Wk Avg Flows Total 4-Wk Avg Flows
Short interest % of market cap
($ billions) Assets Flows YTD Assets Flows YTD 1.9% S&P 500 median
1fc9fa9cf8844a388c506688498547c5
All Equity 8,783 (7.8) (186.1) 7,919 12.3 269.4
Short interest % of cap

1.8%
U.S. Equity 3,742 (4.2) (118.5) 5,004 5.1 105.3
Equity Income 665 (0.8) (14.1) 497 0.4 15.4
1.7%
Int'l Equity 4,454 (3.6) (62.1) 2,256 6.3 127.4
Global 588 (0.1) (5.5) 660 0.9 36.7 1.7%
1.6%
ESG/SRI 1,107 (1.1) 0.8 363 0.3 15.8
All Bonds 4,788 1.8 31.4 1,917 4.6 198.3
1.5%
All Taxable Bond 4,008 1.2 14.1 1,287 1.3 84.6
Gov't Treasury 399 0.5 21.0 521 3.2 109.5
1.4%
Municipal Bond 381 0.0 (3.7) 110 0.0 4.3
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
Oct-21
Apr-22
Oct-22
Apr-23
Oct-23
Jan-22
Jan-23
ESG/SRI 454 0.6 11.3 89 0.4 11.5
Money Market 7,882 27.0 917.3 71 0.4 8.0
Source: FactSet, EPFR, and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
18 August 2023 22
Correlation, Breadth and Dispersion

Sector and Stock Correlation S&P 500 3-month Return Dispersion
0.9 40pp
Average sector correlation S&P 500 3-month
0.8
return dispersion
+/- 1 standard deviation (pp)

35pp
Average 3-Month Correlation
0.7
0.6 30-year average:

30pp 28 pp
0.5
0.4
0.35 25pp
0.3 24pp
Average stock correlation
0.2 0.18
20pp
0.1
0.0 15pp
Mar-22
Mar-23
Dec-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Dec-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Goldman Sachs Breadth Index (GSBI) Return Dispersion
100
30-yr avg = 35
GS Breadth Index +/- 1 Standard Deviation
90 σ = 28 1-Month Returns 3-Month Returns
Goldman Sachs Breadth Index
Current 30-Year Historical Current 30-Year Historical

80
Aug 17 Average %ile Aug 17 Average %ile
70 S&P 500 16 pp 16 pp 66 % 24 pp 28 pp 44 %
1fc9fa9cf8844a388c506688498547c5
60 Real Estate 10 pp 9 pp 70 % 20 pp 15 pp 80 %
50 Consumer Staples 11 13 39 22 22 68
40 Communication Services 18 16 75 29 27 68
Materials 18 14 83 24 25 57
30
Utilities 8 10 49 16 17 57
20 Current Consumer Discretionary 15 17 42 27 29 52
<5 = Narrow breadth 10
10 Financials 14 13 74 18 22 45
Health Care 19 15 85 23 26 43
0
Industrials 15 13 71 19 23 39
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
Information Technology 19 19 59 27 34 35
𝑅𝑅 2 ∗ ∑ 𝑤𝑤 2 R = SPX return
Energy 12 14 41 19 25 28
𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵ℎ = w = individual constituent weights
∑ 𝑤𝑤 2 2 r = individual constituent returns
𝑟𝑟
18 August 2023 23
Economics
GDP Core PCE and CPI Employment
4.0 % 7.0 280
3.5 % US Labor Market

GDP Growth (qoq annualized %)
Goldman 6.0
Initial Jobless Claims (thousands)

3.0 % 260
Sachs
Year over Year change (%)

2.4 2.4
2.5 % Economics
1.9
2.0 1.9 1.9 5.0
2.0 % 1.7
240 4-Week Moving
1.5 %
Average
1.1 4.0
1.0 %
Core 220
0.5 % 3.0 CPI
0.0 %
200
(0.5)% Consensus 2.0 Core
PCE Initial Jobless
(1.0)% Claims
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1.0 180
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-24
Mar-25
Mar-26
Mar-27
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
2023 2024
Current Activity (CAI) Economic Surprise (MAP) Financial Conditions (FCI)

16 16 3.0 101.5
US MAP Positive Tighter
Surprise Data Surprises Financial Conditions
14
China CAI 12 Index 101.0 Index
(right axis)
12 2.0
100.5
US-MAP Surprise Index
1fc9fa9cf8844a388c506688498547c5
10 8
100.0
China CAI
8 1.0
4
US CAI
6 99.5
0
4 0.0
99.0
2 -4
98.5
0 (1.0)
-8
-2 US CAI 98.0
(left axis) Negative
-4 -12 Data Surprises Looser
(2.0) 97.5
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jun-22
Jun-23
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Our Current Activity Indicator (CAI) measures the growth signal in major high-frequency activity indicators for the US economy, expressed in GDP-equivalent units.
18 August 2023 24
Goldman Sachs Global Macro Forecasts

Goldman Sachs US Economics Forecasts
Goldman Sachs Global Macro Forecasts Share % Annual Change
Change of GDP 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E
units Current 3m 6m 12m to Target OUTPUT AND SPENDING
Real GDP 100% 2.1% 2.2% 1.8% 1.9%
Equities
Consumer Spending 71 2.7 2.2 1.8 1.9
MXAPJ level 501 540 560 580 16 % Total Fixed Investment 18 (0.2) (0.6) 2.5 3.5
TOPIX level 2253 2200 2400 2500 11 Business Fixed Investment 15 3.9 3.1 2.4 3.6
Structures 2 (6.6) 6.4 0.8 2.8
STOXX Europe 600 level 451 470 480 500 11 Equipment 6 4.3 (0.1) 2.4 3.2
S&P 500 level 4370 4500 4600 4700 8 IP Products 6 8.8 4.4 3.3 4.5
Residential Investment 3 (10.6) (11.3) 2.9 3.2
Ten Year Rates Federal Government Spending 7 (2.5) 3.1 0.2
Japan % 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 6 bp State and Local Government 10 0.7 2.8 0.5 0.9
Euro Area (Germany) % 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.3 (45) Net Exports (Bil.) (6) (1,357) (1,206) (1,249) (1,282)
(54) HOUSING MARKET

US % 4.3 3.9 3.8 3.8
Housing Starts (000s) 1,551 1,424 1,539 1,539
Corporate Bonds New Home Sales (000s) 637 695 713 716
Existing Home Sales (000s) 5,081 4,360 4,750 4,995
Investment grade bp 122 118 118 NA (4)bp
Case-Shiller Home Prices (%) 7.4 1.3 1.7 2.4
High yield bp 387 355 355 NA (32)
INFLATION
Currencies Core CPI 5.7 3.8 3.0 2.5
Core PCE 4.6 3.4 2.4 2.2
Sterling / US Dollar £/$ 1.28 1.24 1.29 1.33 5%
LABOR MARKET
Euro / US Dollar EUR/$ 1.09 1.07 1.10 1.12 3 Unemployment Rate 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
US Dollar / Yen $/¥ 146 140 135 125 (14) U6 Underemployment Rate 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.7
Payrolls (000s) 479 253 124 96
Commodities
GOVERNMENT FINANCE
LME Copper $/mt 8215 9250 9500 10000 22 % Federal Budget (FY, Bil.) (1375) (1700) (1650) (1800)
Brent Crude Oil $/bbl 84 86 87 93 11 Federal debt-to-GDP ratio (FY, %) 97 96 98 100
WTI Crude Oil $/bbl 80 81 82 88 9 FINANCIAL INDICATORS
Fed Funds Rate 4.4 5.4 4.6 3.6
NYMEX Nat. Gas $/mmBtu 3 3 3 3 9
10-year Treasury Rate 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8
1fc9fa9cf8844a388c506688498547c5
COMEX Gold $/troy oz 1915 2050 2050 2050 7
Real GDP
ICE TTF Nat. Gas $/mmBtu 37 17 15 15 (61)
2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E
China 3.2 % 5.4 % 4.5 % 4.0 %
EPS Forecast EPS Growth NTM P/E Div World 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.7
2022 2023 2024 2023 2024 Current YE 2023 Yield Russia (1.9) 1.9 2.0 1.5
Australia 3.7 1.9 1.8 2.4
MXAPJ $ 37 $ 37 $ 43 0% 16 % 12.3 x 13.5 x 3.0 % USA 2.1 2.2 1.8 1.9
Spain 5.5 2.3 1.6 2.0
Japan 1.0 2.4 1.6 1.4
TOPIX ¥ 144 ¥ 156 ¥ 167 8 7 13.8 14.9 2.4
Brazil 3.0 2.3 1.3 2.4
STOXX France 2.5 0.9 1.3 1.5
€ 35 € 36 € 37 0 5 12.3 13.4 3.7 Euro Area 3.4 0.6 1.3 1.7
Europe 600
Germany 1.9 0.2 1.1 1.7
S&P 500 $ 222 $ 224 $ 237 1 5 18.8 19.0 1.6 Italy 3.8 0.8 1.0 1.5
UK 4.1 0.6 0.9 1.2
18 August 2023 25
Goldman Sachs Global Macro Forecasts

EURO YEN OIL
$1.20 ¥160 $140
EUR/USD ¥155 USD/JPY Brent Crude
$130
$1.15 ¥150 ($/bbl)
¥146
$1.12 $120
¥145
¥140 ¥140 $110 GS

$1.10 $1.09 $1.10
¥135
forecast
$100
$93
$1.07 ¥130 ¥135
$1.05
$90 $84 $86 $87
¥125
¥125 $80
$1.00 ¥120 Futures
$70 market
¥115
$80
$0.95 ¥110 $60
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-24
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-24
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-24
Investment Grade (IG) spread High-Yield (HY) spread Global Equity Market performance
650 bp Price Return (%) US Dollar Local
200 bp
Investment Grade High-yield
Market 1-Wk 1-Mo 3-Mo YTD Currency
(IG) spread (HY) spread

Mexico (Bolsa) (2)% (3)% (1)% 25 % 10 %
175 bp
USD 550 bp USD
Spain (IBEX 35) (4) (5) 1 15 13
Germany (Dax) (3) (5) (1) 15 13
1fc9fa9cf8844a388c506688498547c5
150 bp U.S. (S&P 500) (2) (3) 5 14 14
450 bp France (CAC 40) (4) (4) (2) 13 11
125 bp
122 bp 387 bp Brazil (Bovespa) (6) (6) 5 10 5
355 bp Europe (DJ Stoxx 600) (4) (4) (2) 8 6

118 bp 118 bp 350 bp Japan (TOPIX) (3) (5) (1) 8 19
100 bp 355 bp
Korea (KOSPI) (5) (9) 1 6 13
UK (FTSE 100) (4) (4) (3) 4 (2)
75 bp 250 bp Australia (ASX 200) (5) (8) (4) (4) 2
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-24
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-24
China (MSCI China) (5) (4) (5) (6) (6)

Average (4)% (5)% (1)% 9% 8%
18 August 2023 26
Politics and policies

Market-implied change in fed funds rate US Treasury yield curve
5.75
400bp
Futures market expectation for 5.50 5.4% 5.3% US Treasury yield curve
300bp
fed funds tightening/(easing)
in subsequent months 5.25
5.3%
200bp 5.00
Current
Yield (%)
4.75
6-month
100bp
forward
4.50
0bp 4.3%
6 months: 4.25 4.2%
2 bp
4.00
(100)bp 12 months: 3.9%
GS 2023E
(55) bp 3.75
(200)bp
Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20 Jun-21 Dec-21 Jun-22 Dec-22 Jun-23 Dec-23 Jun-24 3.50
Fed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Funds
Years to Maturity
Economic Policy Uncertainty Breakeven inflation

600 3.5 %
US 10-year breakeven inflation rate
Economic Policy Uncertainty
(Rolling 1-month average) 3.0 %
500
1fc9fa9cf8844a388c506688498547c5
2.5 %
400
2.0 %
300 YE 2023
1.5 % Forward
200
1.0 %
100 0.5 %
Current:
108
0 0.0 %
Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24
Source: FactSet, PolicyUncertainty.com, Federal Reserve Bank, Haver Analytics, and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
18 August 2023 27
Disclosure Appendix
Reg AC
We, David J. Kostin, Ben Snider, Ryan Hammond, Cormac Conners, Lily Calcagnini, Jenny Ma and Daniel Chavez, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views, which have not
been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.
Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are analysts in Goldman Sachs' Global Investment Research.
Disclosures
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See company-specific regulatory disclosures above for any of the following disclosures required as to companies referred to in this report: manager or co-manager in a pending transaction; 1% or other ownership; compensation for
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1fc9fa9cf8844a388c506688498547c5
contains any financial product advice, it is general advice only and has been prepared by Goldman Sachs without taking into account a client’s objectives, financial situation or needs. A client should, before acting on any such
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18 August 2023 28
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1fc9fa9cf8844a388c506688498547c5
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18 August 2023 | 4:20PM EDT

Markets and Money Flow

S&P 500 adjusted EPS

2022A $224 market

3500 200 2.0 % 0%

(3.0) as of November 4, 2022 (1.0)% 10

Pricing in this report as of August 17, 2023, unless otherwise indicated.

Market Performance: YTD absolute and risk-adjusted returns

MSCI Developed Markets 13 S&P 500 0.5

INDUSTRIALS 9 HY Credit 0.5

Russell 2000 6 INDUSTRIALS 0.5

HY Credit 6 Gold 0.5

MATERIALS 5 Russell 1000 Value 0.5

Russell 1000 Value 4 MSCI Emerging Markets 0.5

MSCI Emerging Markets 4 Russell 2000 0.5

Crude Oil (S&P GSCI) 3 MATERIALS 0.5

ENERGY 2 $/Euro 0.5

$/Euro 2 IG Credit 0.5

FINANCIALS 0 ENERGY 0.5

Gold 0 FINANCIALS 0.5

CONSUMER STAPLES (1) REAL ESTATE (0.5)

REAL ESTATE (1) CONSUMER STAPLES (0.5)

HEALTH CARE (1) HEALTH CARE (0.5)

10-year US Treasury (1) 10-year US Treasury (0.5)

UTILITIES (9) UTILITIES (0.5)

Source: Haver, FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

Sector Baskets Performance

Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

Sectors – Relative Performance vs. S&P 500

Media & Entertainment Underw eight

Industrials Energy Materials Real Estate

Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

Financial Services Insurance Software & Services Telecommunication Services

Source: FactSet, compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

Source: FactSet, compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

S&P 500 Sector and Industry Group Performance

Energy 5% (0.6)% 8.2 % 12 % 18 % 2% Top quartile

Health Care 14 (1.0) 1.8 2 2 (1) Bottom quartile

S Utilities 3 (1.7) (4.4) (4) (16) (9)

Pharmaceuticals Biotechnology & Life Sciences 8% 0.2 % 6.7 % 6% 6% 0% Global Defensives

Telecommunication Services 1 (0.6) 3.0 (9) (19) (13) Domestic Defensives

Insurance 2 (0.6) 1.1 3 4 (0) Domestic Cyclicals

Energy 5 (0.6) 8.2 12 18 2 Global Cyclicals

Commercial & Professional Services 1 (1.4) (2.2) 8 7 13 Domestic Cyclicals

I Software & Services 11 (1.7) (7.1) 5 8 27 Global Defensives

N Utilities 3 (1.7) (4.4) (4) (16) (9) Domestic Defensives

D Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment 7 (1.7) (8.3) 20 40 64 Global Cyclicals

U Technology Hardware & Equipment 9 (1.8) (8.2) 3 2 30 Global Cyclicals

T Financial Services 8 (2.2) (2.0) 5 2 5 Domestic Cyclicals

Y Media & Entertainment 8 (2.4) (0.5) 10 16 50 Global Defensives

G Materials 2 (2.5) (2.9) 4 3 5 Global Cyclicals

Transportation 2 (3.5) (2.9) 7 (4) 9 Domestic Cyclicals

Consumer Services 2 (3.5) (3.3) 2 18 20 Global Cyclicals

Consumer Durables & Apparel 1 (3.7) (5.6) (3) 2 4 Global Cyclicals

Banks 3 (4.3) (2.8) 6 (12) (6) Domestic Cyclicals

Automobiles & Components 2 (9.5) (22.9) 21 (25) 58 Global Cyclicals

Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.