FORTNIGHTLY DROUGHT WATCH BULLETIN

(1-15 June, 2023)

1. Weather Summary for the 1st fortnight of June 2023

During the first fortnight of June 2023, Light to very moderate and Heavy rainfall reported from
isolated stations across Pakistan. Spatial distribution of the rainfall is shown in Figure No.1. The
chief amounts of rainfall recorded across Pakistan during the period 1-15 June, 2023 are shown in
Table-1 below;

Table:1
Sr.No. Station Rainfall(mm) Sr.No. Station Rainfall(mm)
1 QURTABA CHOWK 231.01 6 Garhi Dupatta 109
2 MURREE 141.51 7 RAWALAKOT 107.2
3 LAHORE, AIRPORT 132.01 8 SIALKOT AIRPORT 100.61
4 KAKUL 129 9 NAROWAL 100.6
5 Gari Dopatta 115 10 HAFIZABAD 95.91

Figure 1: Rainfall distribution of Pakistan during Figure 2: Rainfall Departure from Normal during
First fortnight of May-2023 First fortnight of May-2023

Figure 2 depicts the Percentage Departure of rainfall from normal during first fortnight. Some parts
of Sindh, Gilgit Baltistan and KP receive well below normal rainfall during the fortnight while rest of
the areas receive Normal to above Normal rainfall in Punjab and Khyber Paktunkhawa as shown
in blue colour. Farmers are advised to keep themselves abreast of weather updates and plan field
activities accordingly to minimize weather induced losses to matured/cultivated crops.

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2. Drought Situation Analysis

During last week, rain was reported in most parts of country. The significant change was
occurred (towards wetness) in the Drought areas during last week with respect to the
previous week as shown in the figure. Overall conditions are normal. However, the situation
in the coastal and adjacent areas of Sindh and Balochistan is looking less humid than before.

Duration of forecast: 12 June to 18 June, 2023

Met Office informed that Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (BIPARJOY) over East-central
Arabian Sea located at 19.5°N and 67.7°E and 600 km south of Karachi and 580 km south
of Thatta and is likely to move further northward till 14 June (Morning). A westerly wave is
also likely to enter in upper parts of the country on 14th June (Wednesday). Under the
influence of this weather system:
Widespread wind-dust/thunderstorm rain with some very heavy/extremely heavy falls
accompanied with squally winds of 80-100 Km/hour gusting 120km/hour likely in Thatta,
Sujawal, Badin, Tharparker, Mirpurkhas & Umerkot districts during 13-17 June. Meanwhile,
there is a possibility of rain with wind and thunder in the coastal areas of Sukkur, Larkana,
Jacobabad, Zhob, Barkhan, Musa Khel, Nasirabad, Sibi, Lasbela, Kalat, Khuzdar and
Makran. Chitral, Dir, Swat, Kohistan, Mansehra, Abbottabad, Haripur, Peshawar, Charsadda,
Nowshera, Swabi, Mardan, Bajaur, Karam, Waziristan, Kohat, Bannu, Tank, Karak, Dera
Ismail are likely to experience thunderstorms.

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 More rain-dust/thunderstorm with a few hailstorms (Isolated heavy falls) is expected in
Kashmir (Neelum valley, Muzaffarabad, Poonch, Hattian, Bagh, Haveli, Sudhanoti, Kotli,
Bhimber, Mirpur), Gilgit-Baltistan (Diamir, Astore, Ghizer, Skardu, Hunza, Gilgit, Ghanche,
Shigar), Chitral, Dir, Swat, Kohistan, Mansehra, Abbottabad, Haripur, Peshawar, Charsadda,
Nowshera, Swabi, Mardan, Bajaur, Kurram, Waziristan, Kohat, Bannu, Tank, Karak, Dera
Ismail Khan, Islamabad, Murree, Galliyat, Rawalpindi, Attock, Chakwal, Gujranwala,
Narowal, Sialkot, Kasur, Lahore, Jhelum, Sargodha, Sheikhupura, Faisalabad, Jhang, Toba
Tek Singh, Nankana Sahib, Mandi Bahauddin, Khushab, Mianwali, Bhakkar, Layyah,
D.G.Khan, Multan, Kot Adu, Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar & Rahim Yar Khan from 15th to
18th June with occasional gaps.
3. Normalized Difference Vegetation
Index (NDVI)

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index values

during first fortnight of June 2023 are shown in
Fig.4. NDVI values are good in north Punjab and
along the Indus belt depicting the good
vegetation over there. Low NDVI values are
observed in Sindh and Balochistan areas
depecting harvesting of crops over there.
Figure.4: NDVI First Fortnight of June, 2023
4. Land Surface Temperature (LST)

Land surface Temperatures (LST) during first

fortnight of June 2023 represented in Fig.5.
Temperatures are now increasing and most of the
areas in Northern, western and central Pakistan
areas are facing temperatures above 25°C. While
Southern and western parts of the country are
showing values of Temperature above 35°C. Some
areas of Nokundi, kharan in Baluchistan and
Tharparkar in Sindh and Coastal Areas are even
showing LST Higher than 40°C.
Figure5: LST First Fortnight of June, 2023

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5. Temperature Vegetation Dryness
Index (TVDI)

Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI)

derived from MODIS product MOD13A2 (NDVI)
and MOD11A2 (LST) is shown in Fig. 6, which
depicts Moisture stress consitions in Nokundi,
Kharan and coastal areas of Baluchistan and
Tharparkar district of Sindh are showing
moisture stress conditions over there.

Figure 6: TVDI First Fortnight of June, 2023