Journals of Gerontology: Psychological Sciences

cite as: J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci, 2021, Vol. 76, No. 8, 1489–1498
doi:10.1093/geronb/gbab003
Advance Access publication January 6, 2021

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Research Article

The Effects of Selective Survival on Black Adults’ Cognitive

Development

Editor’s choice
Shyuan Ching Tan, MA,1,*, Alyssa A. Gamaldo, PhD,1,2, Timothy Brick, PhD,1,
Roland J. Thorpe, Jr. PhD,3 Jason C. Allaire, PhD,4 and Keith E. Whitfield, PhD5
Human Development and Family Studies, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, USA. 2School of Aging Studies,
1

University of South Florida, Tampa, USA. 3Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore,
Maryland, USA. 4Department of Psychology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, USA. 5Department of Psychology,
University of Nevada, Las Vegas, USA.
*Address correspondence to: Shyuan Ching Tan, MA, Human Development and Family Studies, Penn State University, 115 Health & Human
Development Building, University Park, PA 16802, USA. E-mail: shyuanching@gmail.com

Received: August 11, 2020; Editorial Decision Date: December 21, 2020

Decision Editor: Angela Gutchess, PhD

Abstract
Objectives: The theory of selective survival suggests that possibly around 70–75 years of age, Blacks may display substan-
tive changes in their pattern of cognitive decline. This study examined the age-graded pattern of cognitive decline within
older Blacks by describing a trend that characterizes differences in the change of cognitive decline from ages 51.5 to 95.5,
and hypothesized that this age-graded pattern is nonlinear.
Method: Utilizing 2 waves of longitudinal data from the Baltimore Study of Black Aging, this study used multilevel mod-
eling to test whether the interaction between age and the 3-year study period (time between waves) had a positive effect on
changes in inductive reasoning, declarative memory, working memory, and perceptual speed.
Results: A significant positive interaction between age and wave was found for inductive reasoning, demonstrating an
age-grade pattern of change/decline in cognitive pattern for Blacks aged 51.5–95.4. Simple slope probing via the Johnson–
Neyman Technique suggested that Black adults ~64 years and younger experienced significant decline in inductive rea-
soning across study time, whereas for those older than 63.71, the decline was nonsignificant. No significant age–wave
interactions were found for declarative memory, working memory, or perceptual speed.
Discussion: Findings suggest a selective survival effect for inductive reasoning ability among Blacks. With decline evident
so early, common cognitive intervention programs targeting adults 65+ may come too late for Blacks, signifying the impor-
tance and urgency for early health interventions and public policy designed to promote cognitive reserve.
Keywords: Age-graded pattern, Cognitive change, Early cognitive and educational intervention
  

While most studies found that racial/ethnic older adults
had a higher risk for cognitive impairment compared to
non-Hispanic Whites (Manly & Mayeux, 2004), some
cross-racial comparisons, particularly between Blacks and
Whites, have shown mixed results regarding differences
in decline in global cognition (measured by the Telephone
Interview for Cognitive Status and Mini-Mental State
Examination) and in executive function (Weuve et al.,
2018). In general, studies have shown that older Blacks
had lower initial scores compared to older Whites, but
they did not agree on the Blacks versus Whites rates (i.e.,
slopes) of decline (Alley et al., 2007; Weuve et al., 2018).
For example, Lee and colleagues (2012) concluded that
a 3-year average decline in general cognitive status for
older (mean age 79 years) African Americans was faster
than that for non-African Americans, while Weuve and

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1490
colleagues (2018) found that a 5-year rate of decline in
global cognition did not differ significantly between Blacks
and Whites adults 65 years and older. Another study (Alley
et al., 2007) looking at older Americans aged 70–103 re-
vealed that racial differences in the rate of decline varied by
cognitive tasks. Specifically, while there was no difference
found for the decline rate for the Serial 7’s task (a task of
working memory), Black participants had slower decline
rate for word recall tasks.
This conflicting evidence suggests that our under-
standing of older individuals’ cognitive development is in-
complete and not generalizable to all racial groups. One
possible reason is that most cognitive aging studies mod-
eling the slope of change/decline across adulthood were
based on samples comprised predominantly of Whites
(e.g., Alley et al.’s (2007) and Wilson et al.’s (2002) studies).
With few cognitive aging studies including large samples
of Black adults of various demographic characteristics
(e.g., age, gender, and education), we have a limited un-
derstanding of older Black adults’ cognitive health and
development. To better account for the interindividual dif-
ferences in sociodemographic, health, and behaviors com-
monly observed within the Black communities (Whitfield
et al., 2008), studies using a within-racial group approach
have been conducted to further elucidate racially/ethnically
relevant factors that might account for between-person
differences in cognitive change solely among older Blacks.
For example, Aiken-Morgan and colleagues (2018) exam-
ined the patterns of global cognitive stability and change
in urban, community-dwelling Blacks aged 48–95. The
authors discovered that over a 3-year period, older Blacks
who had declining (from normal to mild cognitively im-
paired) cognitive status had fewer years of education;
whereas those who maintained normal cognitive status had
healthier lung function. Furthermore, any inference and
conclusion regarding the cognitive development of racial
minority groups based on existing conflicting literature are
likely confounded by differences in participants’ age range
between studies. Some studies consisted of participants
from mid-50s to mid-80s (e.g., Goh et al., 2012), while
others included participants from ages 70 to 100+ (e.g.,
Alley et al., 2007). If individuals’ rate of change/decline in
performance score is contingent upon the age at which they
entered a study for testing, having participants with varying
ages at baseline makes findings generated from studies not
well calibrated for consistency. Comparison based on these
studies is unlikely to yield a definitive age-graded pattern of
cognitive change/decline within Blacks.
Given the prior literature, it is warranted to incorpo-
rate scientific approaches that go beyond those utilized in
prior studies to better understand cognitive aging in Blacks.
By not pivoting towards this new direction, the scientific
community is likely to continue to have an obscured un-
derstanding which can result in bias conclusions regarding
cognitive functioning and changes within Blacks. For ex-
ample, research implicating lower performance or faster
Journals of Gerontology: PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCES, 2021, Vol. 76, No. 8
decline among older Blacks had often led to diagnoses or
classifications of older Blacks as cognitively impaired (see
Aiken-Morgan et al., 2008 and Aiken-Morgan et al., 2010
for their review and summary of this literature). Borrowing
from the theories of persistent inequalities (Bénabou, 1994),
bias classification like this creates uncalled for social strat-
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ification, and stratification helps perpetuate the persistent
inequalities and discriminations in our society and in many
aspects of Black individuals’ life. Aiken-Morgan and col-
leagues (2008, 2010), in their effort to disentangle race and
cognitive ability, examined the role of early education at-
tainment in explaining racial differences. However, much
remains to be learned about how older Blacks, as a group,
experience cognitive change/decline at different times
during their adulthood (specifically, at different ages when
they enter a study for testing). Additionally, it is likely that
intervention programs based upon narrowly supported
conclusions about older Blacks’ cognitive changes at best
will result in ineffective preventive efforts, but at worst, can
further perpetuate inequalities and discriminations through
strengthening a wrong perception about older Blacks’ cog-
nitive ability. Lastly, limited effort to elucidate the scientific
understanding of cognitive aging in Blacks will further per-
petuate unnecessary and/or inadequate health procedures
often experienced by Blacks (Evans et al., 2020; Grady &
Edgar, 2003). These unwarranted health practices facilitate
inequitable and uneconomical health care services that neg-
atively impact Black adults and families as well as our soci-
etal health care system (LaVeist et al., 2011).
Hence, to continue the effort of scholars endorsing
the within-racial group approach, this study utilized the
Baltimore Study of Black Aging (BSBA), which consists
of only Black adults from 50 to 95 years old at baseline.
Primarily, to capitalize on the study’s two-wave (approx-
imately 3 years apart) longitudinal data and its wide age
range, we attempted to characterize an age-graded pattern
of cognitive change/decline. That is, if the slope of change/
decline in performance scores from Wave 1 to 2 was correl-
ated with the age they entered and stayed in our study for
testing, we should see an age-graded pattern if all partici-
pants’ two-point changes were plotted on the same graph
(i.e., visualizing older Blacks’ cognitive change as a group
from ages 50 to 95). Understanding this age-graded pattern
can improve the ways researchers approach age-related
cognitive health issues among older Blacks and better
adapt preventive efforts while offering a different perspec-
tive to disentangle the race–cognitive ability phenomenon.
This study further hypothesized that this age-graded pat-
tern would not follow a strict linear decline line due to the
theory of selective survival.
According to the theory of selective survival (Dupre,
2007; Kim & Miech, 2009; Markides & Machalek, 1984),
Black adults who have accumulated a lifetime of socioec-
onomic disadvantages and unfavorable health behaviors
will experience disability and mortality at a younger age
(Lariscy, 2017). Those who survive to advanced old age are
Journals of Gerontology: PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCES, 2021, Vol. 76, No. 8
likely to be a selective group of robust, healthier, and pos-
sibly also higher-educated and higher-socioeconomic status
(SES) individuals. Although selective survival is often prof-
fered as an explanation for the narrowing gaps in mortality
and health disparities between Blacks and Whites with
advancing age, the theory necessarily implies an aggregate
change within older Blacks, given the healthier surviving
population. When the survival effect begins to manifest, the
impact of additional cumulative disadvantages diminishes
(Kim & Miech, 2009), instantiating the age-as-leveler hy-
pothesis in comparison between Blacks and Whites. Thus,
looking solely within Blacks, it is reasonable to expect that
as a group, their cognitive change may show a substantive
difference around/after certain advanced age as the sur-
vival effect begins to manifest in cognitive health (Zahodne
et al., 2016) and as additional disadvantages start to wane
in influence. That is, when frail/disadvantaged individuals
become unavailable for study, we may see the cognitive
health and changes of oldest Blacks to be different—specif-
ically, the slope will be less steep, showing a nonlinear age-
graded pattern. In addition, based on previous studies (Kim
& Miech, 2009; Lariscy, 2017; Markides & Machalek,
1984), it is likely that the survival effect for health occurs
earlier (possibly in mid-70) than for mortality (~85).
Based on this central framework guiding the analyses
of this study, we explored whether this nonlinear age pat-
tern holds across four cognitive domains/abilities—in-
ductive reasoning, declarative and working memory, and
perceptual speed. These measures were chosen for several
reasons. First, reasoning, memory, and speed are domains
of cognitive ability considered to be sensitive to aging
(Salthouse, 2010). Additionally, previously published
studies using the BSBA data (e.g., Allaire et al., 2009) had
used these cognitive domains as part of their criteria for
mild cognitive impairment classification. Second, to facil-
itate ease of comparison across studies as these are com-
monly explored domains and commonly used measures in
cognitive aging literature. For example, in Tucker-Drob
and colleagues’ (2019) meta-analysis of the cognitive
change literature, the domains derived for evaluation in-
cluded speed, memory, and reasoning. Third, to ensure a
more comprehensive coverage as variability across cog-
nitive domains/tasks was also evidenced in the literature
(Hultsch et al., 2002; Mella et al., 2018).
In sum, this study utilized data from the BSBA–Patterns
of Cognitive Aging (BSBA–PCA), which was initiated to ex-
amine changes in the relationships between health, psycho-
social factors, and cognition in Blacks across two waves at
approximately 3 years (33 months) apart. We hypothesized
that participants’ change/decline in cognitive performance
from Wave 1 to 2 across four domains/abilities (inductive
reasoning, declarative and working memory, and percep-
tual speed) is contingent upon the age at which they en-
tered our study for testing, hence, attempted to characterize
an age-graded pattern of change/decline visualizing older
Blacks’ cognitive change as a group from ages 50 to 95. We
1491
believed that this age-graded pattern would not be linear but
rather, there would be a substantive difference in the linear
decline between Waves 1 and 2 around/after age 70–75
due to the selective survival effect. That is, the change/de-
cline rate for young-old individuals would be faster but the
change/decline rate for individuals after age 75 would be
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less steep when the effect begins to manifest. BSBA–PCA
data allowed us to account for the unique effects of stress,
financial strain, social support, and cardiovascular diseases
risk that are often experienced by Blacks (Hummer et al.,
2004). Therefore, perceived stress, financial strain, social
support received and given, and cardiovascular risk were
included in the analyses, together with sex, as covariates.
Furthermore, in light of the evidence (Aiken-Morgan et al.,
2018) that years of education have an effect on the global
cognitive stability in Blacks, education was also included
as a covariate.
Method
Participants
At Wave 1, the BSBA–PCA had 602 participants (74.58%
female, n = 449), reported ages ranged from 48 to 95
(M = 69.12; SD = 9.76). At Wave 2, there were 450 partici-
pants (77.3% female, n = 348), reported ages ranged from
51 to 96 (M = 71.43, SD = 9.21). One hundred and fifty-
two individuals were excluded after Wave 1 due to death
(n = 58), unable to be found (n = 54), moved out beyond
recruitment area (n = 21), too sick to participate (n = 13),
and refusal (n = 6). T test analyses showed that individuals
who were excluded were not significantly different from
those who stayed in terms of sex, age, years and quality
of education, financial strain (measured by income needs),
perceived stress, working memory score, and social sup-
port received. However, they had a lower family income
(t(576) = −2.09, p = .037), lower baseline Mini-Mental
State Examination scores (t(600) = −2.23, p = .026), in-
ductive reasoning (t(423) = −2.61, p = .009), declarative
memory (t(575) = −2.74, p = .006), and perceptual speed
(t(583) = −2.80, p = .005), showed higher scores for car-
diovascular risk (t(584) = 2.06, p = .039), and provided
less social support to friends and family (t(600) = −3.59,
p < .001). For more details of the study procedure, refer to
Aiken-Morgan and colleagues (2018).
Measures
Cognitive measures
The four cognitive domains were defined following the
procedure outlined by prior published studies using the
BSBA–PCA data (Allaire et al., 2009; Gamaldo et al.,
2010). Inductive reasoning tested participants’ logical
ability to identify related items. It required abstract
reasoning and problem-solving skills, and was as-
sessed using the Letter Series Test and Shipley Institute
1492 Journals of Gerontology: PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCES, 2021, Vol. 76, No. 8

of Living Scale Abstraction Test. Declarative memory
measured participants’ semantic processing ability and
memory, and was assessed using the Hopkins Verbal
Learning Task, Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Task, and
Immediate Recall Test. Working memory required at-
tention and short-term memory as it measured parti-
excluded due to errors in/missing date of birth informa-
tion, leaving n = 444 (76.1% female, n = 338), meas-
ured ages ranged from 51.5 to 95.5 years old (M = 70.1;
SD = 9.2) included for analyses. Participants’ demo-
graphic, health, and cognitive information can be found
in Table 1.

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cipants’ ability to retain and manipulate information.
It was assessed using the Alpha Span Task, Operation
Span Task, and Backward Digit Span task. Perceptual
speed was assessed using the Number Comparison Test,
Identical Pictures Test, and Digit Symbol Substitution
Test, which tested participants’ ability to accurately and
logically compare and react to stimuli. All the tests were
assessed as total scores and all test scores were stand-
ardized to a mean of 50 and an SD of 10. Composite
scores for the cognitive domains were computed by
taking the sum of all the standardized test scores as-
sessing that domain. High scores represent high cogni-
tive performance.
The data have a hierarchical structure in which the
repeated measures are nested within individuals. We hy-
pothesized that at least for some domains/abilities, Black
adults’ slope of cognitive change/decline is contingent
upon the age at which they entered our study for testing.
This contingency should yield an age-graded pattern
slopes from the age of 50 to 95 such that across this age
distribution, the trend is nonlinear or does not follow
an accelerated declining pattern. To test this, a multilevel
model (MLM), allowing for simultaneous modeling of
the within-person (level 1) two-wave effect, between-
person (level 2) individual differences, and cross-level
interaction (age-effect), was fitted separately with each
of the inductive reasoning, declarative memory, working

Education and Covariates Table 1. Demographic, Health, and Cognitive Characteristics

Number of years of education was assessed. Sex was of the Samples (n = 444)
coded as 0 = male and 1 = female. The Perceived Stress
Frequency Range Mean SD
Scale (Cohen et al., 1983) was used to measure the global
feelings and thoughts about one’s situation in life during Average age, yearsa 51.5–95.5 70.7 9.2
the past month. It has 14 items and participants were >50–55 31
asked to appraise on a 5-point scale (0 = never to 4 = very >55–65 39
often) how often they perceived situations such as “un- >65–70 43
able to control important things,” “unable to control irri- >70–75 89
tations,” and “felt difficulties were piling up so high and >75–80 87
could not be overcome” happened. Total possible score >80–85 83
ranged from 0 to 48. Participants were asked to rate how >85–90 51
well their income covered needs (financial strain) on a >95 5
4-point scale (0 = not very well, 1 = poorly but I get by, Education 3–20 11.7 2.9
2 = pretty well, and 3 = very well). Social support was Average perceived stress 3.5–44.5 18.7 7.4
Average financial strain 0–3 1.4 0.7
measured by five items asking participants how frequently
Average support received 0–14.5 7.6 3.0
(0 = never to 3 = often) they provided/received household
Average support given 0–15 7.6 2.9
services, financial assistance, transportation, and com-
Average cardiovascular 0–6 2.1 1.4
panionship and advice to/from friends and family. Total
risk
possible score ranged from 0 to 15. Cardiovascular risk
Wave 1 cognitive
factor (CVRFS) was measured as a sum of self-reported
composites
number of diagnoses including diabetes, cardiovascular Inductive reasoning 74–170 103.2 18.7
disease, high blood pressure, stroke, heart attack, angina, Declarative memory 96–224 152.1 23.1
and circulation problems. The CVRFS composite score Working memory 110–271 151.7 20.9
ranged from 0 = no/low risk to 7 = high risk. Covariates Perceptual speed 88–245 151.9 24.9
were assessed at both waves and the averages were used Wave 2 cognitive
for analyses. composites
Inductive reasoning 67–178 100.7 18.2
Declarative memory 100–252 150.1 22.1
Statistical Analyses Working memory 89–212 150.1 20.5
Perceptual speed 97–222 150.2 23.3
Participants’ Wave 1 and 2 ages in year (to the nearest
two decimals) on testing dates were calculated. Average Notes: Average = average across Waves 1 and 2.
age during the study period was used as the age variable a
Age in fraction of a year calculated as the difference between testing/survey
for analyses. For the present study, six participants were date and date of birth.
Journals of Gerontology: PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCES, 2021, Vol. 76, No. 8
memory and perceptual speed composite score as out-
come variable. The effect of age on the Wave 1 to Wave
2 change in outcome variables was tested in each model.
A significant positive effect of age on the change means
that the older a person was, the less they declined be-
tween the first and second time they were tested. Such a
result indicates a nonlinear age-graded pattern across the
entire age distribution.
Following the procedures outlined by Singer and
Willett (2003), PROC MIXED on SAS 9.4 (SAS
Institute, 2013) with full information maximum likeli-
hood was used to generate parameter estimates and sig-
nificance scores for all analyses. A variable for wave of
measurement (0 = Wave 1 and 1 = Wave 2) was created
to assess changes in outcome variables within-person
across study time. Average age during the study was
grand-mean centered at 70.71, and treated as a person-
level variable, along with years of education at Wave
0 and sex. All other covariates (perceived stress, finan-
cial strain, support received/given, and cardiovascular
risk) were grand-mean centered and entered as within-
person variables. Mixed (fixed and random) effect un-
conditional means models were first fitted to partition
the outcome variances and examine whether there were
sufficient clustering and between-person changes to be
explained by additional predictors. Intraclass correla-
tion coefficients (ICCs) were computed using level 1
and level 2 variance parameters from the MLMs. Then,
mixed-effect unconditional growth models were fitted
with wave as the time predictor. This allowed for esti-
mation of within-person changes across the study time
points. All covariates were simultaneously added to this
unconditional growth model and a cross-level interac-
tion (between average study age and wave) was tested to
see if the rate of change was nonuniform (i.e., nonlinear)
across the age distribution.
Results
ICCs of .622 for declarative memory, .587 for working
memory, and .735 for perceptual speed indicate fair amounts
of clustering of Waves 1 and 2 scores within-person for these
Table 2. Unconditional Means Models
Inductive reasoning
Coefficient (SE)
Initial status
Intercept 101.49*** (0.76)
Within-person 236.81*** (19.19)
Between-person
Initial level/intercept 103.05*** (20.35)
Note: ***p < .001.
1493
cognitive abilities, and much of the variabilities in scores
(~59%–74%) were due to between-person differences (see
Table 2 for parameter estimates of the unconditional means
models). A moderately low ICC of .305 indicates less clus-
tering of Wave 1 and 2 scores within-person for inductive
reasoning. The inductive reasoning scales used in this study
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are well-established measures that have high (~.90) test–re-
test reliability (Kaya et al., 2012; Kyllonen et al., 2019).
Thus, despite this lower ICC that suggests high within-person
variability, a prior study (Allaire & Marsiske, 2005) has ar-
gued that within-person variability might be a consistent
and reliable feature within a particular measure rather than
an indication of random error or noise. In addition, litera-
ture has documented an ICC of .36 for inductive reasoning
(Dzierzewski, 2007), which puts our moderately low ICC in
alignment with previous work.
The random intercept only Age as Moderator models in-
dicate that age (on its own) had a significant negative main
effect on how individuals performed over the study time
(see Table 3). For every additional year in average age in the
study, an average person’s cognitive score in each domain/
ability decreased by between 0.27 and 0.81 points (spe-
cifically: inductive reasoning: −0.44, SE = 0.12, p < .001;
declarative memory: −0.27, SE = 0.12, p = .029; working
memory: −0.28, SE = 0.12, p = .020; perceptual speed:
−0.81, SE = 0.11, p < .001). The time predictor, wave, did
not significantly characterize changes in inductive rea-
soning, declarative memory, working memory, and percep-
tual speed abilities, possibly because of the hypothesized
interaction between age and wave. Indeed, for inductive
reasoning, there was a significant positive interaction be-
tween age and wave (0.34, SE = 0.14, p = .015), suggesting
that older individuals in this study tended to have less neg-
ative change in inductive reasoning ability across an ap-
proximate 3-year period. Using predicted scores generated
from the Age as Moderator model for inductive reasoning,
Figure 1 visualizes this age-graded trend across the entire
age distribution, indicating a leveling of decline at approx-
imately 70–75 years old.
To further explore the effect of the approximately
3-year study time period on change in inductive reasoning
ability conditioned on different average ages, the region of
Declarative memory Working memory Perceptual speed
Coefficient (SE) Coefficient (SE) Coefficient (SE)
Fixed effects
150.77*** (0.97) 150.60*** (0.86) 150.81*** (1.07)
Variance components
192.79*** (13.49) 251.20*** (18.94) 154.44*** (10.60)
316.69*** (28.87) 176.43*** (24.15) 427.78*** (34.62)
1494 Journals of Gerontology: PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCES, 2021, Vol. 76, No. 8

significance was estimated using the Plot of Conditional
Effects and Johnson–Neyman Technique in R (Bachl, 2015;
Figure 2). The conditional effect suggests that for Black
adults ~64 years and younger, the change in inductive rea-
soning ability across study time was significantly nega-
tive, whereas for those older than 63.71, the change was
likely that older Blacks’ cognitive health does not follow
the accelerated decline trend found in general older White
population across tasks of fluid intelligence.
This study looked only within Black adults to examine
if, as a group, their cognitive change across adulthood
(in various domains) shows a unique age-graded pattern

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nonsignificant.
Discussion
Longitudinal studies have shown that cognitive de-
cline in older adulthood is inevitable and becomes faster
with increasing age. Studies using data from the Swedish
Adoption/Twin Study of Aging (e.g., Finkel et al., 2007)
and the Seattle Longitudinal Study (SLS; e.g., Gerstorf
et al., 2011) demonstrate that older cohorts decline
faster than younger in many cognitive domains/abilities.
However, given the literature in cognitive aging and spe-
cifically these two longitudinal data sets, which captured
predominately White participants, this conclusion is not
necessarily generalizable to other racial groups. Literature
looking at the disparity between Blacks and Whites sug-
gests that during late adulthood, differences in mortality
rates and functional and health disadvantages disappear
(Kim & Miech, 2009; Markides & Machalek, 1984). The
convergence point for mortality rates is said to be around
85 and for health and functional disadvantages is around
71. This leveling phenomenon is supported by the selec-
tive survival theory (Markides & Machalek, 1984), which
implies that Blacks who survive past an advancing age are
healthier and more robust (Gibson, 1994). Thus, it is very
rather than a linear or accelerated decline across the age
distribution. As hypothesized, cognitive change over an
approximately 3-year period assessed by inductive rea-
soning ability showed age-graded differences in the rate
of decline. After accounting for the effects of education
and health and social stressors/supports unique to Blacks,
advancing age actually moderated the negative effect of
the 3-year time period on inductive reasoning ability such
that around 70–75, the decline leveled out and around
80–85, there was a slight general upward tendency. This
is akin to and consistent with Kim and Miech’s (2009)
study looking at the age trajectories difference in func-
tional health between Blacks and Whites. They found that
after controlling for SES, the effect of cumulative disad-
vantages still exits among young and middle-aged Black
adults—that is, their slope of health change remained
steep until after ~71, Blacks’ slope of health change be-
came less steep.
However, we did not find significant age-graded differ-
ences in cognitive ability assessed by declarative memory,
working memory, or perceptual speed. These findings did
not complement the literature that suggests a single general
factor of cognitive ability (see Tucker-Drob et al., 2019).
Tucker-Drob and colleagues’ (2019) meta-analysis indicates
that studies found significant correlations in longitudinal

Table 3. Age as Moderator Models

Inductive reasoning Declarative memory Working memory Perceptual speed

Coefficient (SE) Coefficient (SE) Coefficient (SE) Coefficient (SE)

Fixed effects
Initial status
Intercept 100.43*** (1.67) 145.05*** (1.97) 146.71*** (1.72) 144.46*** (1.86)
Age −0.44*** (0.12) −0.27* (0.12) −0.28* (0.12) −0.81*** (0.11)
Sex 1.25 (1.72) 8.57*** (2.21) 5.26** (1.84) 9.14*** (2.08)
Education 1.92*** (0.27) 1.67*** (0.34) 2.16*** (0.30) 2.76*** (0.32)
Perceived stress −0.07 (0.09) −0.25** (0.09) −0.02 (0.09) −0.30*** (0.08)
Financial strain 0.22 (0.83) −0.44 (0.87) 0.38 (0.87) 0.22 (0.81)
Support received −0.54* (0.21) −0.50* (0.23) −0.53* (0.22) −0.57** (0.20)
Support given 0.30 (0.23) 0.25 (0.25) 0.60* (0.24) 0.62** (0.22)
Cardiovascular risk 0.25 (0.52) −0.54 (0.61) −1.10* (0.55) −1.53** (0.58)
Slope
Intercept/wave −0.89 (1.26) −1.15 (1.04) 0.10 (1.27) −1.44 (0.94)
Age (interaction) 0.34* (0.14) −0.17 (0.11) 0.03 (0.14) 0.15 (0.10)
Variance components
Within-person 240.15*** (20.63) 184.79*** (14.70) 269.91*** (21.74) 159.81*** (12.44)
Between-person
Initial level/intercept 53.11** (18.50) 263.65*** (27.39) 86.64*** (20.82) 240.35*** (24.45)

Note: *p < .05. **p < .01. ***p < .001.

Journals of Gerontology: PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCES, 2021, Vol. 76, No. 8
Figure 1. Visualizing change in inductive reasoning. Note: Change in in-
ductive reasoning across study time by age (average age in the study as
moderator) shows an age-graded trend, indicating a leveling of decline
at approximately 70–75 years old.
Figure 2. Conditional effect of study time on change in inductive rea-
soning. Note: Conditional effect of the time predictor (wave) as a
function of average age during study time. Gray area denotes the confi-
dence intervals. Significance region is denoted by area where the con-
fidence intervals do not cross zero.
changes among cognitive abilities, suggesting age-related
cognitive changes are likely to occur in tandem such that
individuals who show decline in one domain are likely to
show decline in another domain as well. The reasons for our
contrasting results can elude simple answers, as Salthouse
(2010) pointed out that we may never have a definitive
answer as to the number of different types of age-related
cognitive and neuropsychological variables influencing
changes. Nonetheless, we speculate the following for why
age-graded pattern was only found for inductive reasoning
in this study. First, it is possible that some crystallized intel-
ligent abilities (e.g., experience and logical strategy which
tend to improve with age) were used to facilitate the comple-
tion of reasoning tasks such that participants in this study
showed a slower rate of decline in inductive reasoning with
advanced age. This might be particularly salient within
the Black population because they often acquire unidenti-
fied learning strategies from life experiences that common
neuropsychological testing does not assess (Whitfield &
1495
Aiken-Morgan, 2008). Second, it is also possible that early-
life education attainment played a role in older individ-
uals’ reasoning ability. Studies (Gerstorf et al., 2011; Schaie
et al., 2005) have suggested that educational processes and
structures at different historical times may have bestowed
individuals with different training and analytic ability that
Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/psychsocgerontology/article/76/8/1489/6066580 by OP Jindal Global University user on 18 September 2023
is subsequently reflected in cohort differences in psycho-
metric tests. Whitfield and colleagues (2010) also found
that education can be a source of variability across fluid
mechanic and crystallized-pragmatic abilities among Black
adults. In addition, some consider education as reflective of
life experience beyond age and this often serves as a proxy
for cognitive reserves that protect against manifestation of
brain disease (Siedlecki et al., 2009). Third, the results of
survival effect might simply manifest more strongly on in-
ductive reasoning because of the required problem-solving
skill that often builds on life experience. Notwithstanding,
studies not supporting a single general factor of cognitive
ability are not unprecedented in the literature. For example,
Finkel and colleagues’ (2007) Swedish Adoption/Twin
Study of Aging did not find a significant difference between
younger and older age cohorts in the rate of decline for
processing speed ability despite finding significant cohort
differences for several other abilities.
Gerstorf and colleagues’ (2011) study looking at cohort
differences in the rate of cognitive aging found typical linear
decline with acceleration in five cognitive domains: spatial ori-
entation, word fluency, verbal meaning, number ability, and
inductive reasoning. One reason this study found the opposite
pattern for the rate of change/decline for inductive reasoning
may be that, as emphasized throughout, the age-graded pat-
tern found seems to be unique to older Black adults. Gerstorf
and colleagues’ (2011) study utilized data from the SLS, the
racial breakdown of which was not clearly stated. Using a
population sample like the SLS can produce nationally rep-
resentative results, but because the Black sample size may be
relatively small, it could easily mask the unique effect specific
to the population of older Black adults.
Taken together, there are clinical and preventive im-
plications for Blacks’ cognitive health if as a racial group
they do not follow the general linear or accelerated cog-
nitive age-graded pattern. Common cognitive intervention
programs generally target older adults 65+ years old, but if
decline is most significant among younger and middle-aged
Blacks, these help and prevention efforts may come too late.
Early interventions for cognitive maintenance or improve-
ment may be more relevant and urgently needed for Black
adults. Besides maintenance and preventive efforts, equally
important is the effort to improve early life and equal ed-
ucational opportunity and quality for Blacks. Among the
covariates examined in this study, education appears to be
a clear protective factor against cognitive decline. Prior re-
search has also demonstrated the well-established and cu-
mulative association between educational attainment in
early life and better health-related outcomes in later life
(Kye et al., 2014), and education as a proxy for cognitive
1496
reserve (Siedlecki et al., 2009). Irrefutably, societal and in-
stitution efforts to push for equitable educational resources
for Black youth are much needed (Orfield & Lee, 2005).
Furthermore, this negative decelerating age-graded pattern
of change/decline in Black adults also raises the question
of whether there are specific sociodemographic or psycho-
logical characteristics associated with those oldest Blacks
who defy the negative effect of chronological age on cogni-
tive health. These characteristics could be protective factors
worth further exploration, and could also have important
implications for improving the cognitive health of other ra-
cial groups. Nonetheless, future studies can explore other
characteristics such as personality traits, family and work
environment, and social network, etc., that might be associ-
ated with cognitive health among the oldest Blacks.
One limitation of this current study is that there are
only two time points per individual, which disallowed di-
rect assessment of within-person longitudinal trajectories.
If more waves of data were available, individuals’ growth
trajectories could be estimated and an age convergence test
could be implemented to verify if individuals’ longitudinal
growth merges onto a common trajectory. Another limita-
tion is that this study did not find the unique age-graded
pattern in three (declarative memory, working memory,
and perceptual speed) of the four cognitive abilities tested.
Although this may simply be a result of limitation in the
power to identify the age-graded pattern from only two
time points per person, it certainly limits our ability to rule
out the possibility of a chance finding and conclude for cer-
tain that this represents specific differences among different
cognitive domains. Future research with more measure-
ments for each individual may be needed to explore differ-
ences in decline in these cognitive domains for older Blacks.
In sum, findings from this study suggest that among
older Blacks, the decline of inductive reasoning ability
slows down after/around age 70. This might shift the focus
of cognitive intervention programs as early interventions
for cognitive maintenance or improvement may be more
urgently needed for Blacks.
Funding
This work was supported by the National Institute on
Aging (R01 AG24108 and AG24108-S1 to K. E. Whitfield
and J. C. Allaire; 02AG059140 and P30AG059298 to R. J.
Thorpe Jr.; and R01 AG054363 to R. J. Thorpe Jr. and
K. E. Whitfield) and the National Institute on Minority
Health and Health Disparities (U54MD000214 to R. J.
Thorpe Jr.).
Conflict of Interest
None declared.
Journals of Gerontology: PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCES, 2021, Vol. 76, No. 8
Acknowledgments
Special thanks to the BSBS-PCA staff for data collection
and data entry. The data will be made available upon re-
quest. The study reported in this manuscript was not
preregistered.
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