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An advanced approach for estimation of PCU values on undivided urban roads

under heterogeneous traffic conditions

Article in Transportation Letters The International Journal of Transportation Research · December 2018
DOI: 10.1080/19427867.2018.1563268

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13 An Advanced Approach for Estimation of PCU Values on Undivided
14 Urban Roads under Heterogeneous Traffic Conditions

15

16 Abstract

17 Majority of the existing studies on PCU estimation are limited to inter-urban and
18 divided urban roads. Characteristics of traffic on undivided urban roads is
19 completely different from that on divided roads. Present study aims to estimate
20 the PCU values on undivided urban roads with varying traffic conditions.
21 Estimation of PCU requires speed information for individual vehicle categories.
22 Hence, a Universal Kriging-based speed prediction model was developed and
23 utilized for PCU estimation. The model was constructed based-on the classified
24 traffic volume and speed data which were collected by videography method on
25 undivided urban road segments in different cities in India. The proposed model
26 was utilized to study the effects of traffic volume, traffic composition and
27 carriageway width on PCU. An alternative approach of ‘Stream Equivalency
28 Factor’ has also been suggested in this paper. Use of this approach can simplify
29 the process of determining the homogeneous equivalent of a mixed traffic flow.

30 Keywords: Passenger Car Unit; Universal Kriging; Speed; Traffic volume; Traffic composition;
31 Urban roads; Carriageway width; Stream Equivalency Factor

32

33 1 Introduction

34 Traffic volume is one of the most fundamental parameters in the system of traffic flow

35 and it is defined as the actual number of vehicles observed or predicted to be passing a

36 point during a given time interval (Khisty and Lall 2002). Traffic volume information is

37 crucial for the transportation planners and engineers since it is among the prior

38 requirements in different phases of planning and designing of a roadway. However, it is

39 not always enough to express the traffic volume merely in terms of ‘vehicles’ because the

40 traffic composition may also vary with the time. With the aim of expressing the traffic
41 volume in a common unit, Highway Capacity Manual 1965 (Highway Research Board

42 1965) introduced the concept of Passenger Car Equivalent (PCE). Passenger Car

43 Equivalent (PCE) or Passenger Car Unit (PCU) is defined as “the number of passenger

44 cars that will result in the same operational conditions as a single heavy vehicle of a

45 particular type under specified roadway, traffic and control conditions” (Tranportation

46 Research Board 2010). Using the PCU factors, the heterogeneous traffic flow can be

47 converted to its equivalent homogeneous. Highway Capacity Manual (Transportation

48 Research Board 2016) encounters the influence of mixed traffic by proposing an

49 adjustment factor (fHV) which is governed by the proportion (PHV) and PCU (EHV) of

50 heavy vehicles as given in Equation 1.

1
51 f HV  (1)
1  PHV  E HV  1

52 PCU of heavy vehicle depends upon the type of terrain. It is 2.0 for level, 3.0 for rolling

53 and 5.0 for mountainous terrain. However, PCU values recommended in US HCM or

54 other capacity manuals of developed nations are specific to traffic conditions in those

55 countries. Traffic in India and many other developing countries has a higher scale of

56 heterogeneity in comparison with developed nations. Driving behaviour also differs

57 significantly between these two contexts. Hence, the PCU values suggested in Highway

58 Capacity Manual of developed nations, should not be adopted in heterogeneous traffic

59 conditions. Otherwise, it may lead to erroneous results (Fan 1990; De Luca and

60 Dell’Acqua 2014). There is a need to determine PCU factors which are compatible to the

61 local traffic conditions. A significant research efforts have been devoted on the

62 determination of PCU values for heterogeneous traffic conditions (Arkatkar and Arasan

63 2010; N. Y. Cao and Sano 2012; Chandra and Kumar 2003; Jin et al. 2015; Lan and

64 Chang 2005; Mehar, Chandra, and Velmurugan 2014; Mardani, Chandra, and Ghosh
65 2015). Most of these investigations have concluded that PCU is not static as assumed

66 earlier and it varies suggestively with the change in the traffic and other conditions.

67 Concentrating on the traffic condition, traffic volume and traffic composition are the two

68 factors which can together characterise a traffic stream. Literature (Basu, Maitra, and

69 Maitra 2006; Al-kaisy, Jung, and Rakha 2005; Mardani Nokandeh, Ghosh, and Chandra

70 2016) indicate that the change in PCU of a vehicle category is prominently governed by

71 these two factors. Other than the traffic flow parameters, road geometric features such as

72 carriageway width, may also play a considerable role in determining the PCU (Chandra

73 and Kumar 2003; Arasan and Arkatkar 2010). However, majority of these studies

74 reported in literature are limited to inter-urban roads and divided urban roads. Traffic

75 behaviour on undivided urban roads is completely different from that on divided roads.

76 On this background, the present study aims to determine PCU for undivided urban roads

77 and to examine the influence of traffic and geometric characteristics on PCU of individual

78 vehicle category. To this end, a novel Kriging surrogate based framework has been

79 presented and utilised in this work.

80 2 Methodology

81 In order to estimate the PCU values for undivided urban roads, a speed based PCU model

82 was adopted in the present study. Therefore before exercising the PCU model, there was

83 a prior need to model the classified vehicular speed. Hence, the present study is completed

84 in two phases: a) Estimation of classified speeds and b) Estimation of PCU values.

85 Methodology adopted in each of these phases is described below.

86 2.1 Estimation of classified speeds

87 In the absence of considerable side frictional activities like pedestrian cross flow

88 (Dhamaniya and Chandra 2014; Bak and Kiec 2012), on-street parking (Biswas, Chandra,
 89 and Ghosh 2017; Y. . Cao, Yang, and Zuo 2017), vehicular speed on a mid-block road

90 segment is solely governed by traffic flow conditions. The earlier investigations have

91 proposed different speed models to predict speed of individual vehicle type based on

92 traffic flow parameters. One such work was reported by Thomas et al. (Thomas,

93 Srinivasan, and Arasan 2012) who developed a linear speed-volume relationship in order

94 to simplify the model development process. It was assumed that for high (>5600 veh/h)

95 and medium (4000-5600 veh/h) traffic volume conditions, speed of a vehicle decreases

96 linearly with the increase in the classified traffic volumes. However in the case of low

97 volume condition (<4000 veh/h), traffic composition does not have any influence in

98 determining the classified speed. Hence, speed was modelled considering total traffic

99 volume only for low volume condition. Dhamaniya and Chandra (2013b) modelled speed

100 of a vehicle type based on the assumption that the speed has a linear relationship with the

101 classified densities. They estimated density by taking the ratio of volume to speed as

102 given in Equation 2.

m
Q 
103 Vi  c0   ci  i  (2)
i 1  Vi 

104 Qi and Vi are the hourly volume and the speed of vehicle category ‘i’ respectively. C0 and

105 ci are the regression coefficients and m is the number of vehicle types present in the mixed

106 traffic. This model is non-trivial and speed can be estimated only by using an iterative

107 approach. This is cumbersome from practical perspective and hence the model losses its

108 effectiveness specifically in the field application. Another common limitation associated

109 with both of these models (Thomas, Srinivasan, and Arasan 2012; Dhamaniya and

110 Chandra 2013b) resides in the assumption that the speed has a linear relationship with

111 other traffic flow parameters (either volume or density). Therefore, there is a space of

112 methodological improvement in developing the speed model in order to overcome the
113 shortcomings associated with other existing models. Moreover, the applicability of the

114 existing models are restricted to divided urban arterials only. Literature on the estimation

115 of classified speeds specifically for undivided urban roads are found missing.

116 This paper presents a Kriging surrogate based approach for estimation of

117 classified speeds on undivided urban roads under mixed traffic conditions. Kriging has

118 some innate advantages in model development over conventional techniques. Firstly, it

119 is a well-proven fact that the response predicted by Kriging is more accurate compared to

120 that of other conventional techniques like regression (Gaspar, Teixeira, and Soares 2014;

121 Mukhopadhyay et al. 2016). A bi-level approximation process: a) use of trend function

122 on a global scale and b) use of covariance function on a local scale, is the basis of

123 obtaining such high accuracy. To compare the performance of Kriging with the

124 conventional regression technique, Kriging yields more accurate predictions since it

125 further interpolates the residuals of the regression model. Additionally, in comparison

126 with other conventional approaches, Kriging requires significantly less volume of data to

127 construct the model (Kaymaz 2005; Denimal et al. 2016). Owing to all of these

128 advantages, Kriging technique has been utilized purposefully in the present study.

129 Methodology adopted to develop the Kriging model is described in the first section

130 however, the subsequent section discusses about the application of the model in

131 predicting speed at a given condition.

132 2.1.1 Development of the Kriging model

133 In this study, the speed of individual vehicle category was modelled based on the

134 classified traffic volumes. Classified traffic volumes which can describe overall traffic

135 volume as well as its composition characteristics, were judiciously chosen as input

136 variable q. The response vector composed of average speeds of individual vehicle
137 category was considered as v(q).

 q11 q12 . . q1b   v1 q 

q   v q 
 21 q 22   2 
138 q . .  & vq    .  (3)
   
 . .   . 
q n1 q nb   v n q 

139 n is the number of trials and b is the number of input variables which denotes the number

140 of vehicle types present in the mixed traffic. The present study intends to model v(q)

141 using Kriging approximation technique. Theoretical concepts of Kriging were first

142 introduced by Krige (1951) and the technique has been upgraded over the time (Matheron

143 1963; Cressie 1990). Presently, several forms of Kriging are available in Literature

144 (Knotters, Brus, and Oude Voshaar 1995; Mukhopadhyay et al. 2016; Zimmerman et al.

145 1999; Bhattacharyya 2017). Among them, Universal Kriging is utilized in this work. This

146 form of Kriging functions based on the combination of two distinct techniques; regression

147 and the stochastic process. Applying Kriging, the output response v(q) can be modelled

148 as:

149 V(q) = f T (q) + Z(q) (4)

150 The model comprises of the polynomial part fT(q)ß and the stochastic part Z(q) as well.

 = 1 , 2 ,...., a 
T
f(q) = {f1 (q),f 2 (q),....,f a (q)}T
151 and denote the functional and the

152 regression coefficient vector respectively and a is the number of elementary functions.

153 Z(q) is the covariance of Gaussian stationary process and derived as:

154 Z(q) = Cov(qi ,q j ) = σ2R(qi ,q j ); i, j =1,.....,b

155 (5)

156 where σ2 is the process variance and R(qi,qj) is the correlation between two input variables
157 qi and qj. Hence, the two unknown parameters ß and σ2 are to be estimated using these

158 two equations.

159  = (FT R -1F)-1 FT R -1Y (6)

1
160 σ2 = (V - Fβ)T R -1 (V - Fβ) (7)
n

161 F represents the vector composed of functional values at each trial point. R is the

162 correlation matrix composed of stationary correlations R for all possible combinations of

163 the trial points.

 R(q1 , q1 ) R(q1 , q 2 ) . . R(q1 , q n ) 

 R(q , q ) R(q , q ) . 
 2 1 2 2 
164 R= . . .  (8)
 
 . . . 
 R(q n , q1 ) . . . R(q n , q n ) 

165 The stationary correlation is defined as the product of one dimensional correlations R as

166 given in Equation 9.

b
167 R(qi , q j ) =  R(qic , q cj ,θ c ) (9)
c=1

168 R functions as per the Gaussian process which is governed by the Euclidean distance

169 between two points. θc , c = 1, … , b is the hyper-parameter. It is essential to determine the

170 optimal value of θc for satisfactory performance of Kriging model. For this purpose, the

171 technique of Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) has been utilized in the present

172 work.

173 2.1.2 Speed Prediction using the Kriging model

174 This part of the methodology describes the use of the model developed in predicting
175 speed. Speed at a given set of classified volumes q can be determined as:

176 v(q) = f T (q)β + r T (q)R -1 (V - Fβ) (10)

177 f(q) is determined by putting the new set of volumes 𝐪 = {q1 , q2 , … , qb } into the

178 functional vector. ß has been estimated previously using Equation 6. r(q) defines the

179 vector composed of the correlations between the new set of points q and all the trial points

180 considered in the development of model.

181 r T (q) = {R(q, q1 ), R(q, q 2 ),...., R(q, q n )} (11)

182 R(q,qi) is the product of correlations between individual elements of q and qi as given in

183 Equation 12.

b
184 R(q, q i ) =  R(q c , q ic ) (12)
c=1

185 The speed for a given set of classified volumes was predicted using this approach. Flow-

186 chart of the Kriging methodology for estimation of classified speed is given in Figure 1.

187 2.2 Methodology for estimation of PCU values

188 PCU which is required to convert a heterogeneous traffic volume to its equivalent number

189 of passenger cars, can be conceptualized in a number of ways. It can be estimated based

190 on delay (Craus, Polus, and Grinberg 1980), speed (Arkatkar and Arasan 2010; Basu,

191 Maitra, and Maitra 2006; Brooks 2010), headway (Ben-Edigbe and Ferguson 2005;

192 Kimber, McDonald, and Hounsell 1985; Rongviriyapanich and Suppattrakul 2005;

193 Werner and Morrall 1976), flow (Alecsandru, Ishak, and Qi 2013; Al-kaisy, Jung, and

194 Rakha 2005; Yeung, Wong, and Secadiningrat 2015) and occupancy (Mallikarjuna and

195 Rao 2006). In this work, a speed-based approach was adopted to estimate PCU since

196 speed is a good performance measure and it replicates the operating conditions on a road.
197 Also, the consideration of speed has some other inherent advantages from practical

198 perspective. Speed is accurately measurable in field and clearly perceived by other road

199 users. In case of a highly heterogeneous traffic condition, vehicles with diverse

200 dimensional characteristics take any lateral position on the carriageway in the space left

201 empty by other vehicles. In such situation, the extent of interaction among vehicles is also

202 governed by traffic composition. Small sized vehicles like motorized two-wheelers can

203 accept small lateral gap and hence get more opportunities to manoeuver. On the other

204 hand, larger vehicles get less manoeuvring opportunities and this stipulates for a higher

205 PCU value for these vehicle types. Therefore, the vehicle dimensional aspect should also

206 be considered along with the speed to define PCU of a vehicle type. In this context, the

207 present study adopted the PCU model suggested by Chandra and Kumar (2003) as given

208 in Equation 13.

Vc
( )
Vi
209 PCU i = (13)
Ac
( )
Ai

210 PCUi is the passenger car unit of a vehicle category i. Vc and Vi are the speed of passenger

211 car and vehicle category i respectively. Ac and Ai are the projected rectangular area of

212 passenger car and vehicle category i respectively. In this study, Vc and Vi were

213 determined using Kriging approximation technique as described in previous step while

214 Ac and Ai were measured directly in the field.

215 3 Field data

216 Traffic speed and volume data were collected at six mid-block locations on two lane

217 undivided urban roads in various parts of India. All sections have similar road geometry

218 except the carriageway width which varied from 5.5 m to 9.5 m. Details of these segments
219 are given in Table 1.

220

221

222 Table 1: Locations and geometric details of the selected road sections

Road segment Name of the road Carriageway width City

(meter)

1 Cross Road 5.5 Dehradun

2 Paschim Marg 6.2 Chandigarh

3 Subhash Road 7.0 Dehradun

4 Ring Road 7.0 Kolkata

5 Vigyan Path 9.0 Chandigarh

6 Palam Road 9.5 Delhi

223

224 Few criteria were carefully considered while selecting a section for data collection

225 purpose. These are:

226  The section should be straight with no grade.

227  The section should be free from any on-street parking, bus stop or pedestrian

228 cross-flow in the vicinity of the section ensuring minimal effect of side friction

229 on vehicle movements.

230  The section should be situated away from the influence of upstream/downstream

231 intersections

232 A longitudinal trap of 50 m was made on the road using self-adhesive tape at each

233 location. The vehicular movements on the selected road segment were captured using the
234 videography technique. A video camera was mounted on a 3.6 m high stand and this total

235 set up was placed at a suitable location to clearly capture the entire road segment. A four

236 hours of video was recorded at each location on typical weekdays with normal weather

237 condition. Later, recorded video files were played on a computer screen to extract the

238 data required for the analysis. The traffic volume was measured by counting the number

239 of vehicles crossing the section while speed of individual vehicle was measured from the

240 entry and exit time on the segment with an accuracy of 1/25 sec. All vehicles present in

241 the traffic stream were divided into five categories namely, small car (CS), big car (CB),

242 heavy vehicle (HV), motorized three wheeler (3W) and motorized two wheeler (2W). All

243 larger sized new generation cars (including SUV) with engine of displacement more than

244 2500 cc were considered as big car and the rest of all cars were taken under the category

245 of small car. Heavy vehicle category included the larger sized vehicles like buses and

246 trucks. For the estimation of PCU, small car category was selected as the standard vehicle

247 category. Figure 2 shows the average traffic composition observed at each of the road

248 segments of Table 1. The average projected rectangular areas of all these categories are

249 given in Table 2. Traffic volume (q) and average speed (v) of individual vehicle category

250 were extracted from the videos for each 5 min interval.

251 Table 2. Vehicle categories and their sizes

Heavy Three Two

Vehicle Type Small Car Big Car
Vehicle Wheeler Wheeler

Projected
Rectangular Area 5.36 8.11 24.54 4.48 1.20
(m2)
252
253 4 Analysis and Results

254 4.1 Estimation of classified speeds and PCU values

255 Based on the observed classified volume and speed data, speed of a vehicle category was

256 modelled using Kriging approximation technique described in ‘Methodology’ section.

257 Observed field data of road segment 3 and 4 were merged together since these two

258 segments have the same carriageway width of 7 m, a standard road width for a two lane

259 two way undivided urban road (Indian Roads Congress 1983). The speed and PCU values

260 were first estimated for these two roads. The model was constructed using randomly

261 selected 85% of the observed data. The remaining 15% of data set were utilised for testing

262 the accuracy of the model. Speeds predicted by the model at observed volume conditions

263 were compared with those measured in field as shown in Figure 3. Results showed an

264 excellent agreement between observed and predicted speeds for all vehicle categories.

265 Accuracy of the model was estimated based on two measurers; R2 and Root Mean Square

266 Error (RMSE) and these two parameters were found within acceptable limits (R2 > 0.85

267 and RMSE < 0.5) for each vehicle category as given in Table 3. Therefore, the speed of

268 different vehicle categories predicted by the Kriging model were used in Equation 13 to

269 estimate PCU. Projected areas of vehicle categories were taken from Table 2. Similar

270 analysis was performed repetitively for other road segments also and corresponding PCUs

271 were obtained.

272 Table 3: Measures of accuracy of the model developed in predicting speed for different
273 vehicle categories

Vehicle category Average

 Accuracy Heavy Three Two
Small car Big car
parameter vehicle wheeler wheeler

R2 0.91 0.94 0.90 0.89 0.94 0.91

RMSE 0.18 0.29 0.40 0.25 0.16 0.26

274

275 A sample estimation of PCU is given in Appendix.

276 4.2 Sensitivity analysis

277 In order to demonstrate the dynamic nature of PCU, traffic conditions were varied and

278 the change in PCU was carefully studied. Classified traffic volumes i.e. the input variables

279 of Kriging model were changed in such a manner that it would yield the influences of

280 traffic composition and traffic volume on PCU.

281 4.2.1 Effect of traffic volume on PCU

282 In the first instance, traffic composition was kept constant at some observed value and

283 traffic volume was varied within its observed limit of 500-3000 veh/h. A significant

284 change in PCU was observed for each of the vehicle categories as shown in Figure 4. But,

285 the nature of this change varies largely depending upon the vehicle category. This is

286 owing to the fact that the increase in the traffic volume results in the reduction of speed

287 for all vehicles however, the rate of reduction is not the same for all. For example, speed

288 of big cars and heavy vehicles reduces more rapidly compared to other vehicles as a result

289 of the increase in traffic volume. This is attributed to their physical size. Large sized

290 vehicles face more difficulties to manoeuvre at an increased traffic volume condition

291 (Zöbel and Weyand 2008). Hence, the PCU which is the ratio between speeds of the

292 standard car and a vehicle type, increases for big cars and heavy vehicles with the increase
293 in traffic volume. On the other hand, small sized vehicles like two wheelers and three

294 wheelers, have good manoeuvrability even at increased traffic volume. Therefore, the

295 reduction of speed is less for these categories compared to the standard car. Hence, PCU

296 for these vehicles, decreases with the increase in traffic volume. Similar analysis can be

297 done for different sets of traffic composition and the change in PCU can be studied.

298 4.2.2 Effect of traffic composition on PCU

299 In the second phase, the traffic volume was kept constant at a predefined value and the

300 composition was varied within the range observed in the field. Due to the limitation of

301 graphical representation, proportions of two vehicle categories were varied at a time in a

302 complementary manner keeping other proportions constant. Later, the proportion of other

303 vehicles were also varied. A significant variation in PCU was observed for different

304 categories of vehicle as shown in Figure 5. Increase in the proportion of large sized

305 vehicle reduces the speed of all vehicle types. However, this reduction rate is not the same

306 for all vehicle categories. As a result, PCU also changes accordingly. For example,

307 increase in the proportion of heavy vehicles decreases the PCU of two wheelers and there

308 wheelers but increases the PCU for other vehicles. Conversely, when the proportion of

309 small sized vehicles like two wheelers increases in the traffic stream, PCU decreases for

310 big cars and heavy vehicles and increases for other vehicle categories. This analysis can

311 be extended for the wide range of traffic composition and numerous graphs can be

312 generated.

313 4.3 Effect of carriageway width on PCU

314 The study intends to evaluate the effect of carriageway width on PCU of individual

315 vehicle. The PCU values estimated on different undivided urban roads (carriageway

316 width varying from 5.5 m to 9.5 m) are compared. Based on the field data, a Kriging-
317 based speed predication model was developed previously for each road segment. The

318 models developed were used repeatedly to determine the classified speeds for varying

319 traffic volumes and compositions. Classified speeds obtained through these models were

320 used in Equation 13 to determine the PCU. In order to observe the effect of carriageway

321 width on PCU, the influence of traffic characteristics should be removed first. Therefore,

322 classified traffic volumes were varied in a similar fashion for each street section. Thus, a

323 set of PCU values of a section was compared with another set of other section under the

324 same traffic condition. Classified traffic volumes on each section were varied in such a

325 manner that it would yield the PCU values corresponding to every possible combination

326 of traffic volume and its composition. Thus, five distinct sets of PCU (each containing

327 378 values) were formed for the streets of five carriageway widths viz. 5.5 m, 6.2 m, 7

328 m, 9 m and 9.5 m. Before determining the influence of carriageway width on PCU,

329 significance of the differences among these sets was checked by performing Analysis of

330 Variance (ANOVA) test at 95% confidence level. Results showed that the observed value

331 of F was less than the critical value Fcritical for all the cases as shown in Table 4. This

332 implies that the PCU of a vehicle category does not vary significantly with the

333 carriageway width on two-lane undivided urban roads and it is valid for all the vehicle

334 types. It is attributed to the similar variation in speed for all types of vehicles with the

335 change in carriageway width.

336 Table 4: Results of ANOVA test to check the significance of the variation in PCU
337 values for the roads of varying carriageway widths

Degree
Vehicle Source of Sum of Mean
of F Fcritical*
category variation squares squares
freedom
 Between
0.1129 4 0.0282
groups
Big car 0.8932
Within
59.5469 1885 0.0316
groups

Between
7.4446 4 1.8611
Heavy groups
1.4236
vehicle Within
2464.3796 1885 1.3074
groups
2.3766
Between
0.0158 4 0.0039
Three groups
0.7854
wheeler Within
9.4558 1885 0.0050
groups

Between
0.0005 4 0.0001
Two groups
0.4451
wheeler Within
0.5326 1885 0.0003
groups

*
338 confidence level = 95%

339 4.4 Development of Stream Equivalency Factor

340 The present study has forwarded a Kriging based approach for estimation of PCU values

341 for undivided urban roads. It is to be acknowledged that the approach requires a computer

342 to run the programme developed in this study. This may be considered as limitation of

343 the approach for field application. Also, the graphs (Figure 4 and 5) developed to

344 determine the PCU values, are based on some assumed conditions of traffic volume and

345 its compositions. Due to the limitation of graphical representation, proportions of all

346 vehicle categories could not be varied simultaneously. One way to address this issue is to

347 develop sufficient number of graphs so that a user can use them for any given traffic
348 conditions. However, dealing with such a large number of graphs is practically infeasible

349 for a user to determine PCU of a vehicle category. In this regard, the present study adopted

350 the concept of Stream Equivalency Factor which would simplify the process of

351 determining traffic volume in terms of PCU.

352 Stream Equivalency Factor (SEF) was first introduced by Dhamaniya and

353 Chandra (2013a) and was defined as the ratio of flow in PCU/h and flow in vehicle/h as

354 given in Equation 14.

flow in PCU/h
355 SEF = (14)
flow in veh/h

356 Using the Kriging based approach, PCU of all vehicle categories were estimated at given

357 classified traffic volumes in each 5 minutes interval. The 5 minute classified volumes

358 were then converted into equivalent PCUs using corresponding PCU values calculated

359 for this set of data. This exercise was repeated for all the data sets and the SEF was

360 calculated on each occasion. SEF was observed varying from 0.42 to 1.82. Figure 6

361 depicts the scatter plot between flow in veh/h and flow in PCU/h. It may be observed that

362 the data points are highly dispersed in Figure 6. The value of R2 was obtained as low as

363 0.18. The reason behind this dispersion is the effect of traffic volume and traffic

364 composition on SEF. As found earlier, the carriageway width does not have any

365 significant influence on PCU, therefore it was not considered as one of the possible

366 reasons for this dispersion. Hence, SEF was modelled considering traffic volume and

367 traffic composition as input variables as given in Equation 15.

1
368 SEF = 1 + a1 ∗ Pcb + a2 ∗ Phv + a3 ∗ P3w + a4 ∗ P2w + b ∗ N (15)

369 Pcb, Phv, P3w and P2w are the proportion (in fraction) of big car, heavy vehicle, three

370 wheeler and two wheeler respectively. Proportion of small car was not kept in the model

371 to overcome the problem of collinearity among the input variables. N is the hourly flow
372 rate (veh/h). a1, a2, a3, a4 and b are the coefficients. In developing the model, 85% of the

373 data set were used and the unknown coefficients were determined using ‘method of least

374 square’ algorithm. Results of the regression analysis for Equation 15 are given in Table

375 5.

376 Table 5: Regression results of Equation 15

Variable Coefficient t-statistic tcritical# R2

Pcb a1 = 0.580 5.929

Phv a2 = 2.568 16.654

P3w a3 = 0.123 7.111 ± 1.97 0.95

P2w a4 = -0.829 -26.483

1/N b = 46.918 16.948

#
377 df = 269, confidence level = 95%

378 All the input variables were found significant in determining SEF since the t-statistic

379 exceeded its critical value for each of the cases. Remaining 15% of the data were utilised

380 to validate the model. Values of SEF estimated (SEF1) using the model were compared

381 with those calculated (SEF2) using Equation 14. As may be seen in Figure 7, there is a

382 fair agreement between these two sets of SEF values obtained through different

383 approaches. Hence, the model (Equation 15 and Table 5) developed in this study can

384 estimate SEF with good accuracy.

385 The merit of this ‘Stream Equivalency Factor’ approach resides in its suitability for field

386 application as it does not involve handling of numerous graphs or use of any computer.

387 Although the SEF model (Equation 15) was developed using the PCU values which had
388 been obtained through Kriging based approach, user can determine equivalent

389 homogeneous flow (in PCU/h) without actually estimating the individual PCUs.

390 5 Conclusions

391 This paper has demonstrated a Kriging based approach for estimation of PCU values on

392 undivided urban roads under mixed traffic conditions. Speeds obtained through Kriging

393 model were found to be in good agreement with the observed speeds. These speeds were

394 used to estimate PCU of a vehicle category. Results of sensitivity analysis showed the

395 variation in PCU with the change in traffic condition. The study has also forwarded the

396 ‘Stream Equivalency Factor’ approach which can be used to convert a mixed traffic flow

397 into its equivalent homogeneous. Major finding of the study are summarised below.

398  PCU of a vehicle category is quite sensitive to traffic volume and its composition.

399 For a given traffic composition, increase in the volume increases PCU for big cars

400 and heavy vehicles whereas it decreases for two wheelers and three wheelers. For

401 the same traffic volume, increase in the proportion of heavy vehicle in the traffic

402 stream, results in a higher space occupancy on the road. Therefore, PCU of big

403 car and heavy vehicle increases with the increase in their proportions in the traffic

404 stream whereas it decreases for other vehicle categories. Opposite trend is

405 observed when the proportion of small sized vehicle like two wheeler increases in

406 the traffic stream.

407  Distinct sets of PCU values were determined for different urban road segments

408 with varying carriageway width. In order to check the significance of the

409 differences in these PCU values, ANOVA test was performed. Test results

410 showed that within the observed range (5.5 m to 9.5 m), the carriageway width

411 does not have any significant influence on PCU of a vehicle category.
412  In order to avoid the problem of handling numerous graphs, the approach of

413 ‘Stream Equivalency Factor’ was adopted in this study. A regression model based

414 on traffic volume and its composition was developed to determine SEF. This

415 alternative approach is suitable for field applications. Using this approach,

416 equivalent homogeneous flow (in PCU/h) can be determined without actually

417 estimating the PCU for each category of vehicle.

418  The methodology demonstrated here is quite versatile and can be extended for

419 other road categories (like divided urban roads, inter-urban roads etc.) also.

420  Among the road geometric factors, this study only examined the influence

421 carriageway width on PCU of different vehicle categories. PCU may vary with

422 other geometric factors (like gradient, horizontal curvature etc.) also. Influence of

423 these factors can be investigated in future studies.

424

425 Appendix

426 Example problem on estimation of PCU using proposed approach

427 Problem: Determine the PCU values of big car, heavy vehicle, three-wheeler and two-

428 wheeler for a mixed traffic stream with a traffic volume of 2500 veh/h and a composition

429 [35% CS, 10% CB, 10% HV, 5% 3W & 40% 2W].

430 Solution: PCU of individual vehicle can be determined using following steps.

431 Step 1: Volumes of individual vehicles (qCS, qCB, qHV, q3W and q2W) are calculated by

432 multiplying ‘traffic volume’ with their ‘proportions’ in the mixed traffic stream.
433 Step 2: Classified traffic volumes are taken as inputs in the Universal Kriging model

434 proposed in this study. The model predicts the speed of each vehicle category (VCS, VCB,

435 VHV, V3W and V2W) as given in Table 6.

436 Step 3: PCU of each vehicle category is determined using Equation 13. Speeds (VCS, VCB,

437 VHV, V3W and V2W) predicted by the Kriging model are taken as inputs in the equation.

438 Projected rectangular area of different vehicles are taken from Table 2. Hence, the PCU

439 estimated for big car, heavy vehicle, three-wheeler and two-wheeler are 1.59, 5.28, 1.02

440 and 0.23 respectively.

441 Table 6: Estimation of PCU for different vehicle categories

Given traffic volume (veh/h) 2500

Small Big Heavy Three- Two-

Vehicle category
car car vehicle wheeler wheeler

Given composition (%) 35 10 10 5 40

Classified traffic volume (veh/h) 875 250 250 125 1000

Classified speed (km/h) using Kriging

42.24 40.20 36.63 34.61 41.13
model

Projected rectangular area (m2) 5.36 8.11 24.54 4.48 1.20

PCU using Equation 13 1 1.59 5.28 1.02 0.23

442

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578
579 Figure Captions

580 Figure 1: Framework of Kriging methodology for estimation of classified speed

581 Figure 2: Average traffic composition observed at different road segments

582 Figure 3: Comparison of the observed and the predicted speed for a) small car, b) big
583 car, c) heavy vehicle, d) three wheeler and e) two wheeler

584 Figure 4: Effect of traffic volume on PCU of a) big car & heavy vehicle and b) three-
585 wheeler & two-wheeler

586 Figure 5: Effect of traffic composition on PCU of a) big car, b) heavy vehicle c) three-
587 wheeler and d) two-wheeler

588 Figure 6: Scatter plot between flow in veh/h and flow in PCU/h

589 Figure 7: Comparison between the calculated and the estimated SEF

590
Click here to access/download;Non-colour figure;Figure 1.tif
Colour figure (online version only) Click here to access/download;Colour figure (online version only);Figure 2.tif
Click here to access/download;Non-colour figure;Figure 3a.tif
Click here to access/download;Non-colour figure;Figure 3b.tif
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Click here to access/download;Non-colour figure;Figure 4a.tif
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Response to reviewer comments

Response to the Reviewers

We would like to thank the reviewers for their time and efforts in reviewing the
manuscript. Please find the point wise response to the reviewers’ concerns.

Reviewer #4:

1. The technical writing needs improvement and re-editing can further improve the
readability of the paper.

Our response: The manuscript has been read again and rewritten wherever it was
required.

2. Why iterative approach for speed estimation is cumbersome. If the accuracy of

predicted speed is better, in this age of technology such approach can be used by the
most. More explanation is needed.

Our response: Apart from iterative process, existing speed models have other
limitations also (as given in Line No 108-111) which are overcome by the
Kriging-based speed model developed in this study. As regards to the accuracy of
the model, Kriging interpolates the residuals of the regression model y(x) - f T (x)b
and hence yields more accurate predictions as compared to conventional
regression techniques (Gaspar et al. 2014).

3. There should be a better explanation of the "Kriging" approach. Highlight the

advantages from accuracy of prediction and practical use point of views.

Our response:

To better explain the Kriging approach, a framework of the methodology has

been included in the revised manuscript (Figure 1).

Advantages of Kriging model from accuracy point of view

 Unlike other conventional approaches, Universal Kriging performs a bi-level
approximation, first on a global scale by using the trend function (polynomial
part) and second on a local scale by using an appropriate covariance function.
This is the basis of obtaining high accuracy (Line No 119-124).

 (As mentioned in the response of Pt. 2) To compare the performance of

Kriging with the conventional regression technique, Kriging yields more
accurate predictions since it further interpolates the residuals of the
regression model y(x) - f T (x)b (Line No 124-126).

Advantages of Kriging model from practical-use point of view

 To achieve a desired accuracy of prediction, Universal Kriging requires

significantly less volume of data to construct the model compared to other
conventional approaches (Kaymaz 2005; Denimal et al. 2016) (Line No.
126-128).

 To use the Kriging model for estimation of PCU, the user does not need to go
through all complex calculations. A user only needs to provide the
information of classified traffic volumes as input to the script (which will be
uploaded to the GitHub server) and it will automatically yield the classified
speeds and corresponding PCUs.

4. Section 4, line 57, never start a sentence with a number.

Our response: Thank you for pointing it out. Sentences starting with a number
have been rephrased in the revised manuscript (Line No 260-262, 373-375).

5. It will be useful to include an example showing the application of the approach

described in the paper.

Our response: Thanks for the suggestion. An example demonstrating the

application of this approach has been included in the revised manuscript (Line
No. 427-443).
Reviewer #5:

1. Please elaborate on the points raised by the manuscript rating questions and any
further comments that the author/s need to address in this box.

Our response: To the best of our knowledge, the rating questions are for editorial
purposes and authors don’t have access to those rating questions. We hope that
we have understood the comment correctly.

Reviewer #6:

This is an interesting paper on PCU values using Kriging method for speed estimation.

Our response: Thank you so much for your kind appreciation.

1. Please add the mixed flow model that appears in the HCM 6th Edition.

Our response: Thanks for the suggestion. The model has been included in the
revised manuscript (Line No. 47-53).

2. In the HCM, PCU is highly related to the grade of the section, however, this variable
is not captured, at least directly, in your model. Please consider adding this limitation of
your method and suggest how to overcome it.

Our response: Among the road geometric factors, only the influence of
carriageway width on PCU was examined in this study. We agree with the
reviewer’s concern that few others geometric factors like gradient, horizontal
curvature etc. may have considerable influences on PCU. Present study obviates
those aspects by considering the road sections which are straight with no grade
(Line No. 225). Therefore, these can be taken up in future studies. This limitation
has been added in the revised manuscript (Line No. 421-424).

To capture the influence of gradient on PCU, these steps may be followed:

i. Traffic data is collected using videography at different road sections having
varying gradients. It is to be ensured that other road geometric factors
remain identical across these sections.

ii. Based on the collected classified traffic volume and speed data, Kriging-based
speed model is developed for each road section. Methodology given in this
study can be followed while developing this model.

iii. Predicted speeds through the Kriging model developed, are taken as inputs in
the PCU model (Chandra et al. 1995).

iv. Classified traffic volumes in the Kriging model, are varied in a similar fashion
for each road section. Thus, different sets of PCU values are formed
corresponding to different gradients.

v. ANOVA test is performed to check whether there is a significant variation in

PCU with the change in gradient.

vi. If there is a significant variation, a relationship between PCU and gradient is

determined for each vehicle category.

References

Chandra, S., Kumar, V., and Sikdar, P. K. (1995). “Dynamic PCU and estimation of
capacity of urban roads.” Indian Highways, Indian Road Congress, New Delhi, 23(4),

17–28.

Gaspar, B., Teixeira, A. P., and Soares, C. G. (2014). “Assessment of the efficiency of

Kriging surrogate models for structural reliability analysis.” Probabilistic Engineering

Mechanics, 37, 24–34.

Manuscript - Anonymous

1 An Advanced Approach for Estimation of PCU Values on Undivided

2 Urban Roads under Heterogeneous Traffic Conditions

4 Abstract

5 Majority of the existing studies on PCU estimation are limited to inter-urban and
6 divided urban roads. Characteristics of traffic on undivided urban roads is
7 completely different from that on divided roads. Present study aims to estimate
8 the PCU values on undivided urban roads with varying traffic conditions.
9 Estimation of PCU requires speed information for individual vehicle categories.
10 Hence, a Universal Kriging-based speed prediction model was developed and
11 utilized for PCU estimation. The model was constructed based-on the classified
12 traffic volume and speed data which were collected by videography method on
13 undivided urban road segments in different cities in India. The proposed model
14 was utilized to study the effects of traffic volume, traffic composition and
15 carriageway width on PCU. An alternative approach of ‘Stream Equivalency
16 Factor’ has also been suggested in this paper. Use of this approach can simplify
17 the process of determining the homogeneous equivalent of a mixed traffic flow.

18 Keywords: Passenger Car Unit; Universal Kriging; Speed; Traffic volume; Traffic composition;
19 Urban roads; Carriageway width; Stream Equivalency Factor

20

21 1 Introduction

22 Traffic volume is one of the most fundamental parameters in the system of traffic flow

23 and it is defined as the actual number of vehicles observed or predicted to be passing a

24 point during a given time interval (Khisty and Lall 2002). Traffic volume information is

25 crucial for the transportation planners and engineers since it is among the prior

26 requirements in different phases of planning and designing of a roadway. However, it is

27 not always enough to express the traffic volume merely in terms of ‘vehicles’ because the

28 traffic composition may also vary with the time. With the aim of expressing the traffic
29 volume in a common unit, Highway Capacity Manual 1965 (Highway Research Board

30 1965) introduced the concept of Passenger Car Equivalent (PCE). Passenger Car

31 Equivalent (PCE) or Passenger Car Unit (PCU) is defined as “the number of passenger

32 cars that will result in the same operational conditions as a single heavy vehicle of a

33 particular type under specified roadway, traffic and control conditions” (Tranportation

34 Research Board 2010). Using the PCU factors, the heterogeneous traffic flow can be

35 converted to its equivalent homogeneous. Highway Capacity Manual (Transportation

36 Research Board 2016) encounters the influence of mixed traffic by proposing an

37 adjustment factor (fHV) which is governed by the proportion (PHV) and PCU (EHV) of

38 heavy vehicles as given in Equation 1.

1
39 f HV  (1)
1  PHV  E HV  1

40 PCU of heavy vehicle depends upon the type of terrain. It is 2.0 for level, 3.0 for rolling

41 and 5.0 for mountainous terrain. However, PCU values recommended in US HCM or

42 other capacity manuals of developed nations are specific to traffic conditions in those

43 countries. Traffic in India and many other developing countries has a higher scale of

44 heterogeneity in comparison with developed nations. Driving behaviour also differs

45 significantly between these two contexts. Hence, the PCU values suggested in Highway

46 Capacity Manual of developed nations, should not be adopted in heterogeneous traffic

47 conditions. Otherwise, it may lead to erroneous results (Fan 1990; De Luca and

48 Dell’Acqua 2014). There is a need to determine PCU factors which are compatible to the

49 local traffic conditions. A significant research efforts have been devoted on the

50 determination of PCU values for heterogeneous traffic conditions (Arkatkar and Arasan

51 2010; N. Y. Cao and Sano 2012; Chandra and Kumar 2003; Jin et al. 2015; Lan and

52 Chang 2005; Mehar, Chandra, and Velmurugan 2014; Mardani, Chandra, and Ghosh
53 2015). Most of these investigations have concluded that PCU is not static as assumed

54 earlier and it varies suggestively with the change in the traffic and other conditions.

55 Concentrating on the traffic condition, traffic volume and traffic composition are the two

56 factors which can together characterise a traffic stream. Literature (Basu, Maitra, and

57 Maitra 2006; Al-kaisy, Jung, and Rakha 2005; Mardani Nokandeh, Ghosh, and Chandra

58 2016) indicate that the change in PCU of a vehicle category is prominently governed by

59 these two factors. Other than the traffic flow parameters, road geometric features such as

60 carriageway width, may also play a considerable role in determining the PCU (Chandra

61 and Kumar 2003; Arasan and Arkatkar 2010). However, majority of these studies

62 reported in literature are limited to inter-urban roads and divided urban roads. Traffic

63 behaviour on undivided urban roads is completely different from that on divided roads.

64 On this background, the present study aims to determine PCU for undivided urban roads

65 and to examine the influence of traffic and geometric characteristics on PCU of individual

66 vehicle category. To this end, a novel Kriging surrogate based framework has been

67 presented and utilised in this work.

68 2 Methodology

69 In order to estimate the PCU values for undivided urban roads, a speed based PCU model

70 was adopted in the present study. Therefore before exercising the PCU model, there was

71 a prior need to model the classified vehicular speed. Hence, the present study is completed

72 in two phases: a) Estimation of classified speeds and b) Estimation of PCU values.

73 Methodology adopted in each of these phases is described below.

74 2.1 Estimation of classified speeds

75 In the absence of considerable side frictional activities like pedestrian cross flow

76 (Dhamaniya and Chandra 2014; Bak and Kiec 2012), on-street parking (Biswas, Chandra,
 77 and Ghosh 2017; Y. . Cao, Yang, and Zuo 2017), vehicular speed on a mid-block road

78 segment is solely governed by traffic flow conditions. The earlier investigations have

79 proposed different speed models to predict speed of individual vehicle type based on

80 traffic flow parameters. One such work was reported by Thomas et al. (Thomas,

81 Srinivasan, and Arasan 2012) who developed a linear speed-volume relationship in order

82 to simplify the model development process. It was assumed that for high (>5600 veh/h)

83 and medium (4000-5600 veh/h) traffic volume conditions, speed of a vehicle decreases

84 linearly with the increase in the classified traffic volumes. However in the case of low

85 volume condition (<4000 veh/h), traffic composition does not have any influence in

86 determining the classified speed. Hence, speed was modelled considering total traffic

87 volume only for low volume condition. Dhamaniya and Chandra (2013b) modelled speed

88 of a vehicle type based on the assumption that the speed has a linear relationship with the

89 classified densities. They estimated density by taking the ratio of volume to speed as

90 given in Equation 2.

m
Q 
91 Vi  c0   ci  i  (2)
i 1  Vi 

92 Qi and Vi are the hourly volume and the speed of vehicle category ‘i’ respectively. C0 and

93 ci are the regression coefficients and m is the number of vehicle types present in the mixed

94 traffic. This model is non-trivial and speed can be estimated only by using an iterative

95 approach. This is cumbersome from practical perspective and hence the model losses its

96 effectiveness specifically in the field application. Another common limitation associated

97 with both of these models (Thomas, Srinivasan, and Arasan 2012; Dhamaniya and

98 Chandra 2013b) resides in the assumption that the speed has a linear relationship with

99 other traffic flow parameters (either volume or density). Therefore, there is a space of

100 methodological improvement in developing the speed model in order to overcome the
101 shortcomings associated with other existing models. Moreover, the applicability of the

102 existing models are restricted to divided urban arterials only. Literature on the estimation

103 of classified speeds specifically for undivided urban roads are found missing.

104 This paper presents a Kriging surrogate based approach for estimation of

105 classified speeds on undivided urban roads under mixed traffic conditions. Kriging has

106 some innate advantages in model development over conventional techniques. Firstly, it

107 is a well-proven fact that the response predicted by Kriging is more accurate compared to

108 that of other conventional techniques like regression (Gaspar, Teixeira, and Soares 2014;

109 Mukhopadhyay et al. 2016). A bi-level approximation process: a) use of trend function

110 on a global scale and b) use of covariance function on a local scale, is the basis of

111 obtaining such high accuracy. To compare the performance of Kriging with the

112 conventional regression technique, Kriging yields more accurate predictions since it

113 further interpolates the residuals of the regression model. Additionally, in comparison

114 with other conventional approaches, Kriging requires significantly less volume of data to

115 construct the model (Kaymaz 2005; Denimal et al. 2016). Owing to all of these

116 advantages, Kriging technique has been utilized purposefully in the present study.

117 Methodology adopted to develop the Kriging model is described in the first section

118 however, the subsequent section discusses about the application of the model in

119 predicting speed at a given condition.

120 2.1.1 Development of the Kriging model

121 In this study, the speed of individual vehicle category was modelled based on the

122 classified traffic volumes. Classified traffic volumes which can describe overall traffic

123 volume as well as its composition characteristics, were judiciously chosen as input

124 variable q. The response vector composed of average speeds of individual vehicle
125 category was considered as v(q).

 q11 q12 . . q1b   v1 q 

q   v q 
 21 q 22   2 
126 q . .  & vq    .  (3)
   
 . .   . 
q n1 q nb   v n q 

127 n is the number of trials and b is the number of input variables which denotes the number

128 of vehicle types present in the mixed traffic. The present study intends to model v(q)

129 using Kriging approximation technique. Theoretical concepts of Kriging were first

130 introduced by Krige (1951) and the technique has been upgraded over the time (Matheron

131 1963; Cressie 1990). Presently, several forms of Kriging are available in Literature

132 (Knotters, Brus, and Oude Voshaar 1995; Mukhopadhyay et al. 2016; Zimmerman et al.

133 1999; Bhattacharyya 2017). Among them, Universal Kriging is utilized in this work. This

134 form of Kriging functions based on the combination of two distinct techniques; regression

135 and the stochastic process. Applying Kriging, the output response v(q) can be modelled

136 as:

137 V(q) = f T (q) + Z(q) (4)

138 The model comprises of the polynomial part fT(q)ß and the stochastic part Z(q) as well.

 = 1 , 2 ,...., a 
T
f(q) = {f1 (q),f 2 (q),....,f a (q)}T
139 and denote the functional and the

140 regression coefficient vector respectively and a is the number of elementary functions.

141 Z(q) is the covariance of Gaussian stationary process and derived as:

142 Z(q) = Cov(qi ,q j ) = σ2R(qi ,q j ); i, j =1,.....,b

143 (5)

144 where σ2 is the process variance and R(qi,qj) is the correlation between two input variables
145 qi and qj. Hence, the two unknown parameters ß and σ2 are to be estimated using these

146 two equations.

147  = (FT R -1F)-1 FT R -1Y (6)

1
148 σ2 = (V - Fβ)T R -1 (V - Fβ) (7)
n

149 F represents the vector composed of functional values at each trial point. R is the

150 correlation matrix composed of stationary correlations R for all possible combinations of

151 the trial points.

 R(q1 , q1 ) R(q1 , q 2 ) . . R(q1 , q n ) 

 R(q , q ) R(q , q ) . 
 2 1 2 2 
152 R= . . .  (8)
 
 . . . 
 R(q n , q1 ) . . . R(q n , q n ) 

153 The stationary correlation is defined as the product of one dimensional correlations R as

154 given in Equation 9.

b
155 R(qi , q j ) =  R(qic , q cj ,θ c ) (9)
c=1

156 R functions as per the Gaussian process which is governed by the Euclidean distance

157 between two points. θc , c = 1, … , b is the hyper-parameter. It is essential to determine the

158 optimal value of θc for satisfactory performance of Kriging model. For this purpose, the

159 technique of Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) has been utilized in the present

160 work.

161 2.1.2 Speed Prediction using the Kriging model

162 This part of the methodology describes the use of the model developed in predicting
163 speed. Speed at a given set of classified volumes q can be determined as:

164 v(q) = f T (q)β + r T (q)R -1 (V - Fβ) (10)

165 f(q) is determined by putting the new set of volumes 𝐪 = {q1 , q2 , … , qb } into the

166 functional vector. ß has been estimated previously using Equation 6. r(q) defines the

167 vector composed of the correlations between the new set of points q and all the trial points

168 considered in the development of model.

169 r T (q) = {R(q, q1 ), R(q, q 2 ),...., R(q, q n )} (11)

170 R(q,qi) is the product of correlations between individual elements of q and qi as given in

171 Equation 12.

b
172 R(q, q i ) =  R(q c , q ic ) (12)
c=1

173 The speed for a given set of classified volumes was predicted using this approach. Flow-

174 chart of the Kriging methodology for estimation of classified speed is given in Figure 1.

175 2.2 Methodology for estimation of PCU values

176 PCU which is required to convert a heterogeneous traffic volume to its equivalent number

177 of passenger cars, can be conceptualized in a number of ways. It can be estimated based

178 on delay (Craus, Polus, and Grinberg 1980), speed (Arkatkar and Arasan 2010; Basu,

179 Maitra, and Maitra 2006; Brooks 2010), headway (Ben-Edigbe and Ferguson 2005;

180 Kimber, McDonald, and Hounsell 1985; Rongviriyapanich and Suppattrakul 2005;

181 Werner and Morrall 1976), flow (Alecsandru, Ishak, and Qi 2013; Al-kaisy, Jung, and

182 Rakha 2005; Yeung, Wong, and Secadiningrat 2015) and occupancy (Mallikarjuna and

183 Rao 2006). In this work, a speed-based approach was adopted to estimate PCU since

184 speed is a good performance measure and it replicates the operating conditions on a road.
185 Also, the consideration of speed has some other inherent advantages from practical

186 perspective. Speed is accurately measurable in field and clearly perceived by other road

187 users. In case of a highly heterogeneous traffic condition, vehicles with diverse

188 dimensional characteristics take any lateral position on the carriageway in the space left

189 empty by other vehicles. In such situation, the extent of interaction among vehicles is also

190 governed by traffic composition. Small sized vehicles like motorized two-wheelers can

191 accept small lateral gap and hence get more opportunities to manoeuver. On the other

192 hand, larger vehicles get less manoeuvring opportunities and this stipulates for a higher

193 PCU value for these vehicle types. Therefore, the vehicle dimensional aspect should also

194 be considered along with the speed to define PCU of a vehicle type. In this context, the

195 present study adopted the PCU model suggested by Chandra and Kumar (2003) as given

196 in Equation 13.

Vc
( )
Vi
197 PCU i = (13)
Ac
( )
Ai

198 PCUi is the passenger car unit of a vehicle category i. Vc and Vi are the speed of passenger

199 car and vehicle category i respectively. Ac and Ai are the projected rectangular area of

200 passenger car and vehicle category i respectively. In this study, Vc and Vi were

201 determined using Kriging approximation technique as described in previous step while

202 Ac and Ai were measured directly in the field.

203 3 Field data

204 Traffic speed and volume data were collected at six mid-block locations on two lane

205 undivided urban roads in various parts of India. All sections have similar road geometry

206 except the carriageway width which varied from 5.5 m to 9.5 m. Details of these segments
207 are given in Table 1.

208

209

210 Table 1: Locations and geometric details of the selected road sections

Road segment Name of the road Carriageway width City

(meter)

1 Cross Road 5.5 Dehradun

2 Paschim Marg 6.2 Chandigarh

3 Subhash Road 7.0 Dehradun

4 Ring Road 7.0 Kolkata

5 Vigyan Path 9.0 Chandigarh

6 Palam Road 9.5 Delhi

211

212 Few criteria were carefully considered while selecting a section for data collection

213 purpose. These are:

214  The section should be straight with no grade.

215  The section should be free from any on-street parking, bus stop or pedestrian

216 cross-flow in the vicinity of the section ensuring minimal effect of side friction

217 on vehicle movements.

218  The section should be situated away from the influence of upstream/downstream

219 intersections

220 A longitudinal trap of 50 m was made on the road using self-adhesive tape at each

221 location. The vehicular movements on the selected road segment were captured using the
222 videography technique. A video camera was mounted on a 3.6 m high stand and this total

223 set up was placed at a suitable location to clearly capture the entire road segment. A four

224 hours of video was recorded at each location on typical weekdays with normal weather

225 condition. Later, recorded video files were played on a computer screen to extract the

226 data required for the analysis. The traffic volume was measured by counting the number

227 of vehicles crossing the section while speed of individual vehicle was measured from the

228 entry and exit time on the segment with an accuracy of 1/25 sec. All vehicles present in

229 the traffic stream were divided into five categories namely, small car (CS), big car (CB),

230 heavy vehicle (HV), motorized three wheeler (3W) and motorized two wheeler (2W). All

231 larger sized new generation cars (including SUV) with engine of displacement more than

232 2500 cc were considered as big car and the rest of all cars were taken under the category

233 of small car. Heavy vehicle category included the larger sized vehicles like buses and

234 trucks. For the estimation of PCU, small car category was selected as the standard vehicle

235 category. Figure 2 shows the average traffic composition observed at each of the road

236 segments of Table 1. The average projected rectangular areas of all these categories are

237 given in Table 2. Traffic volume (q) and average speed (v) of individual vehicle category

238 were extracted from the videos for each 5 min interval.

239 Table 2. Vehicle categories and their sizes

Heavy Three Two

Vehicle Type Small Car Big Car
Vehicle Wheeler Wheeler

Projected
Rectangular Area 5.36 8.11 24.54 4.48 1.20
(m2)
240
241 4 Analysis and Results

242 4.1 Estimation of classified speeds and PCU values

243 Based on the observed classified volume and speed data, speed of a vehicle category was

244 modelled using Kriging approximation technique described in ‘Methodology’ section.

245 Observed field data of road segment 3 and 4 were merged together since these two

246 segments have the same carriageway width of 7 m, a standard road width for a two lane

247 two way undivided urban road (Indian Roads Congress 1983). The speed and PCU values

248 were first estimated for these two roads. The model was constructed using randomly

249 selected 85% of the observed data. The remaining 15% of data set were utilised for testing

250 the accuracy of the model. Speeds predicted by the model at observed volume conditions

251 were compared with those measured in field as shown in Figure 3. Results showed an

252 excellent agreement between observed and predicted speeds for all vehicle categories.

253 Accuracy of the model was estimated based on two measurers; R2 and Root Mean Square

254 Error (RMSE) and these two parameters were found within acceptable limits (R2 > 0.85

255 and RMSE < 0.5) for each vehicle category as given in Table 3. Therefore, the speed of

256 different vehicle categories predicted by the Kriging model were used in Equation 13 to

257 estimate PCU. Projected areas of vehicle categories were taken from Table 2. Similar

258 analysis was performed repetitively for other road segments also and corresponding PCUs

259 were obtained.

260 Table 3: Measures of accuracy of the model developed in predicting speed for different
261 vehicle categories

Vehicle category Average

 Accuracy Heavy Three Two
Small car Big car
parameter vehicle wheeler wheeler

R2 0.91 0.94 0.90 0.89 0.94 0.91

RMSE 0.18 0.29 0.40 0.25 0.16 0.26

262

263 A sample estimation of PCU is given in Appendix.

264 4.2 Sensitivity analysis

265 In order to demonstrate the dynamic nature of PCU, traffic conditions were varied and

266 the change in PCU was carefully studied. Classified traffic volumes i.e. the input variables

267 of Kriging model were changed in such a manner that it would yield the influences of

268 traffic composition and traffic volume on PCU.

269 4.2.1 Effect of traffic volume on PCU

270 In the first instance, traffic composition was kept constant at some observed value and

271 traffic volume was varied within its observed limit of 500-3000 veh/h. A significant

272 change in PCU was observed for each of the vehicle categories as shown in Figure 4. But,

273 the nature of this change varies largely depending upon the vehicle category. This is

274 owing to the fact that the increase in the traffic volume results in the reduction of speed

275 for all vehicles however, the rate of reduction is not the same for all. For example, speed

276 of big cars and heavy vehicles reduces more rapidly compared to other vehicles as a result

277 of the increase in traffic volume. This is attributed to their physical size. Large sized

278 vehicles face more difficulties to manoeuvre at an increased traffic volume condition

279 (Zöbel and Weyand 2008). Hence, the PCU which is the ratio between speeds of the

280 standard car and a vehicle type, increases for big cars and heavy vehicles with the increase
281 in traffic volume. On the other hand, small sized vehicles like two wheelers and three

282 wheelers, have good manoeuvrability even at increased traffic volume. Therefore, the

283 reduction of speed is less for these categories compared to the standard car. Hence, PCU

284 for these vehicles, decreases with the increase in traffic volume. Similar analysis can be

285 done for different sets of traffic composition and the change in PCU can be studied.

286 4.2.2 Effect of traffic composition on PCU

287 In the second phase, the traffic volume was kept constant at a predefined value and the

288 composition was varied within the range observed in the field. Due to the limitation of

289 graphical representation, proportions of two vehicle categories were varied at a time in a

290 complementary manner keeping other proportions constant. Later, the proportion of other

291 vehicles were also varied. A significant variation in PCU was observed for different

292 categories of vehicle as shown in Figure 5. Increase in the proportion of large sized

293 vehicle reduces the speed of all vehicle types. However, this reduction rate is not the same

294 for all vehicle categories. As a result, PCU also changes accordingly. For example,

295 increase in the proportion of heavy vehicles decreases the PCU of two wheelers and there

296 wheelers but increases the PCU for other vehicles. Conversely, when the proportion of

297 small sized vehicles like two wheelers increases in the traffic stream, PCU decreases for

298 big cars and heavy vehicles and increases for other vehicle categories. This analysis can

299 be extended for the wide range of traffic composition and numerous graphs can be

300 generated.

301 4.3 Effect of carriageway width on PCU

302 The study intends to evaluate the effect of carriageway width on PCU of individual

303 vehicle. The PCU values estimated on different undivided urban roads (carriageway

304 width varying from 5.5 m to 9.5 m) are compared. Based on the field data, a Kriging-
305 based speed predication model was developed previously for each road segment. The

306 models developed were used repeatedly to determine the classified speeds for varying

307 traffic volumes and compositions. Classified speeds obtained through these models were

308 used in Equation 13 to determine the PCU. In order to observe the effect of carriageway

309 width on PCU, the influence of traffic characteristics should be removed first. Therefore,

310 classified traffic volumes were varied in a similar fashion for each street section. Thus, a

311 set of PCU values of a section was compared with another set of other section under the

312 same traffic condition. Classified traffic volumes on each section were varied in such a

313 manner that it would yield the PCU values corresponding to every possible combination

314 of traffic volume and its composition. Thus, five distinct sets of PCU (each containing

315 378 values) were formed for the streets of five carriageway widths viz. 5.5 m, 6.2 m, 7

316 m, 9 m and 9.5 m. Before determining the influence of carriageway width on PCU,

317 significance of the differences among these sets was checked by performing Analysis of

318 Variance (ANOVA) test at 95% confidence level. Results showed that the observed value

319 of F was less than the critical value Fcritical for all the cases as shown in Table 4. This

320 implies that the PCU of a vehicle category does not vary significantly with the

321 carriageway width on two-lane undivided urban roads and it is valid for all the vehicle

322 types. It is attributed to the similar variation in speed for all types of vehicles with the

323 change in carriageway width.

324 Table 4: Results of ANOVA test to check the significance of the variation in PCU
325 values for the roads of varying carriageway widths

Degree
Vehicle Source of Sum of Mean
of F Fcritical*
category variation squares squares
freedom
 Between
0.1129 4 0.0282
groups
Big car 0.8932
Within
59.5469 1885 0.0316
groups

Between
7.4446 4 1.8611
Heavy groups
1.4236
vehicle Within
2464.3796 1885 1.3074
groups
2.3766
Between
0.0158 4 0.0039
Three groups
0.7854
wheeler Within
9.4558 1885 0.0050
groups

Between
0.0005 4 0.0001
Two groups
0.4451
wheeler Within
0.5326 1885 0.0003
groups

*
326 confidence level = 95%

327 4.4 Development of Stream Equivalency Factor

328 The present study has forwarded a Kriging based approach for estimation of PCU values

329 for undivided urban roads. It is to be acknowledged that the approach requires a computer

330 to run the programme developed in this study. This may be considered as limitation of

331 the approach for field application. Also, the graphs (Figure 4 and 5) developed to

332 determine the PCU values, are based on some assumed conditions of traffic volume and

333 its compositions. Due to the limitation of graphical representation, proportions of all

334 vehicle categories could not be varied simultaneously. One way to address this issue is to

335 develop sufficient number of graphs so that a user can use them for any given traffic
336 conditions. However, dealing with such a large number of graphs is practically infeasible

337 for a user to determine PCU of a vehicle category. In this regard, the present study adopted

338 the concept of Stream Equivalency Factor which would simplify the process of

339 determining traffic volume in terms of PCU.

340 Stream Equivalency Factor (SEF) was first introduced by Dhamaniya and

341 Chandra (2013a) and was defined as the ratio of flow in PCU/h and flow in vehicle/h as

342 given in Equation 14.

flow in PCU/h
343 SEF = (14)
flow in veh/h

344 Using the Kriging based approach, PCU of all vehicle categories were estimated at given

345 classified traffic volumes in each 5 minutes interval. The 5 minute classified volumes

346 were then converted into equivalent PCUs using corresponding PCU values calculated

347 for this set of data. This exercise was repeated for all the data sets and the SEF was

348 calculated on each occasion. SEF was observed varying from 0.42 to 1.82. Figure 6

349 depicts the scatter plot between flow in veh/h and flow in PCU/h. It may be observed that

350 the data points are highly dispersed in Figure 6. The value of R2 was obtained as low as

351 0.18. The reason behind this dispersion is the effect of traffic volume and traffic

352 composition on SEF. As found earlier, the carriageway width does not have any

353 significant influence on PCU, therefore it was not considered as one of the possible

354 reasons for this dispersion. Hence, SEF was modelled considering traffic volume and

355 traffic composition as input variables as given in Equation 15.

1
356 SEF = 1 + a1 ∗ Pcb + a2 ∗ Phv + a3 ∗ P3w + a4 ∗ P2w + b ∗ N (15)

357 Pcb, Phv, P3w and P2w are the proportion (in fraction) of big car, heavy vehicle, three

358 wheeler and two wheeler respectively. Proportion of small car was not kept in the model

359 to overcome the problem of collinearity among the input variables. N is the hourly flow
360 rate (veh/h). a1, a2, a3, a4 and b are the coefficients. In developing the model, 85% of the

361 data set were used and the unknown coefficients were determined using ‘method of least

362 square’ algorithm. Results of the regression analysis for Equation 15 are given in Table

363 5.

364 Table 5: Regression results of Equation 15

Variable Coefficient t-statistic tcritical# R2

Pcb a1 = 0.580 5.929

Phv a2 = 2.568 16.654

P3w a3 = 0.123 7.111 ± 1.97 0.95

P2w a4 = -0.829 -26.483

1/N b = 46.918 16.948

#
365 df = 269, confidence level = 95%

366 All the input variables were found significant in determining SEF since the t-statistic

367 exceeded its critical value for each of the cases. Remaining 15% of the data were utilised

368 to validate the model. Values of SEF estimated (SEF1) using the model were compared

369 with those calculated (SEF2) using Equation 14. As may be seen in Figure 7, there is a

370 fair agreement between these two sets of SEF values obtained through different

371 approaches. Hence, the model (Equation 15 and Table 5) developed in this study can

372 estimate SEF with good accuracy.

373 The merit of this ‘Stream Equivalency Factor’ approach resides in its suitability for field

374 application as it does not involve handling of numerous graphs or use of any computer.

375 Although the SEF model (Equation 15) was developed using the PCU values which had
376 been obtained through Kriging based approach, user can determine equivalent

377 homogeneous flow (in PCU/h) without actually estimating the individual PCUs.

378 5 Conclusions

379 This paper has demonstrated a Kriging based approach for estimation of PCU values on

380 undivided urban roads under mixed traffic conditions. Speeds obtained through Kriging

381 model were found to be in good agreement with the observed speeds. These speeds were

382 used to estimate PCU of a vehicle category. Results of sensitivity analysis showed the

383 variation in PCU with the change in traffic condition. The study has also forwarded the

384 ‘Stream Equivalency Factor’ approach which can be used to convert a mixed traffic flow

385 into its equivalent homogeneous. Major finding of the study are summarised below.

386  PCU of a vehicle category is quite sensitive to traffic volume and its composition.

387 For a given traffic composition, increase in the volume increases PCU for big cars

388 and heavy vehicles whereas it decreases for two wheelers and three wheelers. For

389 the same traffic volume, increase in the proportion of heavy vehicle in the traffic

390 stream, results in a higher space occupancy on the road. Therefore, PCU of big

391 car and heavy vehicle increases with the increase in their proportions in the traffic

392 stream whereas it decreases for other vehicle categories. Opposite trend is

393 observed when the proportion of small sized vehicle like two wheeler increases in

394 the traffic stream.

395  Distinct sets of PCU values were determined for different urban road segments

396 with varying carriageway width. In order to check the significance of the

397 differences in these PCU values, ANOVA test was performed. Test results

398 showed that within the observed range (5.5 m to 9.5 m), the carriageway width

399 does not have any significant influence on PCU of a vehicle category.
400  In order to avoid the problem of handling numerous graphs, the approach of

401 ‘Stream Equivalency Factor’ was adopted in this study. A regression model based

402 on traffic volume and its composition was developed to determine SEF. This

403 alternative approach is suitable for field applications. Using this approach,

404 equivalent homogeneous flow (in PCU/h) can be determined without actually

405 estimating the PCU for each category of vehicle.

406  The methodology demonstrated here is quite versatile and can be extended for

407 other road categories (like divided urban roads, inter-urban roads etc.) also.

408  Among the road geometric factors, this study only examined the influence

409 carriageway width on PCU of different vehicle categories. PCU may vary with

410 other geometric factors (like gradient, horizontal curvature etc.) also. Influence of

411 these factors can be investigated in future studies.

412

413 Appendix

414 Example problem on estimation of PCU using proposed approach

415 Problem: Determine the PCU values of big car, heavy vehicle, three-wheeler and two-

416 wheeler for a mixed traffic stream with a traffic volume of 2500 veh/h and a composition

417 [35% CS, 10% CB, 10% HV, 5% 3W & 40% 2W].

418 Solution: PCU of individual vehicle can be determined using following steps.

419 Step 1: Volumes of individual vehicles (qCS, qCB, qHV, q3W and q2W) are calculated by

420 multiplying ‘traffic volume’ with their ‘proportions’ in the mixed traffic stream.
421 Step 2: Classified traffic volumes are taken as inputs in the Universal Kriging model

422 proposed in this study. The model predicts the speed of each vehicle category (VCS, VCB,

423 VHV, V3W and V2W) as given in Table 6.

424 Step 3: PCU of each vehicle category is determined using Equation 13. Speeds (VCS, VCB,

425 VHV, V3W and V2W) predicted by the Kriging model are taken as inputs in the equation.

426 Projected rectangular area of different vehicles are taken from Table 2. Hence, the PCU

427 estimated for big car, heavy vehicle, three-wheeler and two-wheeler are 1.59, 5.28, 1.02

428 and 0.23 respectively.

429 Table 6: Estimation of PCU for different vehicle categories

Given traffic volume (veh/h) 2500

Small Big Heavy Three- Two-

Vehicle category
car car vehicle wheeler wheeler

Given composition (%) 35 10 10 5 40

Classified traffic volume (veh/h) 875 250 250 125 1000

Classified speed (km/h) using Kriging

42.24 40.20 36.63 34.61 41.13
model

Projected rectangular area (m2) 5.36 8.11 24.54 4.48 1.20

PCU using Equation 13 1 1.59 5.28 1.02 0.23

430

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566
567 Figure Captions

568 Figure 1: Framework of Kriging methodology for estimation of classified speed

569 Figure 2: Average traffic composition observed at different road segments

570 Figure 3: Comparison of the observed and the predicted speed for a) small car, b) big
571 car, c) heavy vehicle, d) three wheeler and e) two wheeler

572 Figure 4: Effect of traffic volume on PCU of a) big car & heavy vehicle and b) three-
573 wheeler & two-wheeler

574 Figure 5: Effect of traffic composition on PCU of a) big car, b) heavy vehicle c) three-
575 wheeler and d) two-wheeler

576 Figure 6: Scatter plot between flow in veh/h and flow in PCU/h

577 Figure 7: Comparison between the calculated and the estimated SEF

578

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