TXT-tool 1.081-6.

1
A Comparative Study of the Binary
Logistic Regression (BLR) and Artificial
Neural Network (ANN) Models
for GIS-Based Spatial Predicting
Landslides at a Regional Scale

Jie Dou, Hiromitsu Yamagishi, Zhongfan Zhu,

Ali P. Yunus and Chi Wen Chen
Abstract
This teaching tool is to present how to generate the landslide susceptibility
maps using binary logistic regression (BLR) and artificial neural network
(ANN) methods at a regional scale. The study area is one of most
landslide-prone areas in Japan. First, the landslide inventory data from the
National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention
(NIED) were randomly partitioned into two parts: training and testing
data. Then, 10 m DEM data and geology map were analyzed to extract the
landslide predisposing factors. Next, the susceptibility maps were
produced in a geographic information system (GIS) environment. Then,
the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) was used to assess the model
accuracy. Validation results show that both of two methods can be
obtained with acceptable results. The maps can provide useful information
for the future planning of hazard mitigation.

Keywords


Landslides susceptibility Logistic regression (LR)


Artificial neural network (ANN) Predisposing factors


Hazard map Osado of Sado Island

Contents
1 Introduction........................................................ 140 2.2 Landslide Inventory .......................................... 141
2 Case Study and Data......................................... 140 2.3 Landslide Predisposing Factors........................ 143
2.1 Case Study Area ............................................... 140 3 Methods............................................................... 143

Z. Zhu
J. Dou (&)
C.W. Chen College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal
Center for Spatial Information Science, University of University, Beijing, China
Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan
e-mail: douj888@gmail.com A.P. Yunus
Department of Geology, Aligarh Muslim University,
H. Yamagishi Aligarh, India
Shin Engineering Consultant Co.Ltd., 2-8-30,
Sakaedori, Shiroishi-ku Sapporo 003-0021, Japan C.W. Chen
National Science and Technology Center for Disaster
Reduction, Taipei, Taiwan

© Springer International Publishing AG 2018 139

K. Sassa et al. (eds.), Landslide Dynamics: ISDR-ICL Landslide
Interactive Teaching Tools, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-57774-6_10

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140 J. Dou et al.

3.1 Binary Logistic Regression (BLR)................... 143 the most commonly used methods for the
3.2 Back-Propagation for Feed-Forward Artificial assessment of probability of landslide occurrence
Neural Network (ANN).................................... 145
4 Implementation of Landslide Susceptibility at medium and regional scales. The advantage of
Mapping .............................................................. 146 BLR over other multivariate analysis methods is
4.1 Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using BLR that it is independent on data distribution and can
Mode ................................................................. 146 handle a variety of data sets such as continuous,
4.2 Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using ANN
Model................................................................ 147 categorical, and binary data. One of the signifi-
4.3 The Validation of the Landslide Susceptibility cant advantages of ANN is that it imposes less
Models .............................................................. 150 restrictive requirements with respect to the
5 Conclusion .......................................................... 150 available information concerning the character of
References .................................................................. 150
the relationships between the processed data and
the type of distribution. It has robustness to deal
with noisy or incomplete patterns and high fault
1 Introduction
tolerance compared with LR (Shi et al. 2012).
Furthermore, ANN is a complex and flexible
Japan is subject to several types of natural disasters
non-linear statistical method as Kanungo et al.
that include earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic erup-
(2006) noted the method can obtain high pre-
tions, and typhoons. In addition, it is also suscep-
diction accuracy for a classification, particularly
tible to numerous landslides, owing to geologic
with adequate samples. In this study, we use
settings called a subduction zone. Therefore, most
these two methods to produce LSM.
of the rocks have been affected by faulting and
The outline of the teaching tool is shown in
folding considerably. In addition, Japan is located
Fig. 1. We first prepare the predisposing factors,
at temperate monsoon climate zone, and then much
such as slope, aspect, etc. Then the BLR and ANN
rains are documented in the rain seasons association
model are used to create landslide susceptibility
with typhoon. This trend is expected to continue
maps. Finally, the accuracy is estimated using the
and may increase in the future with the influence of
Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) and
unplanned urbanization and economic develop-
historical data. This tool provides a common
ment, deforestation. To mitigate from landslide
useful way to create landslide hazard maps for
disasters, susceptibility, hazard, and risk must be
future planning of risk mitigation.
prepared (Turner and Schuster 1996). Hence, pre-
dicting landslide has become an important and
challenging issue in the risk mitigation research
2 Case Study and Data
(Chang and Chao 2006; Dou et al. 2014, 2015a,
2015b; Zhu et al. 2015, 2016).
2.1 Case Study Area
The landslide susceptibility maps (LSM) de-
lineate the earth’s surface into zones of varying
The study area is located in a mountainous region
degrees of stability based on the evaluated sig-
of Sado Island of Niigata Prefecture, in the Japan
nificance of the conditioning factors inducing
Sea (Fig. 2). Sado Island is composed of two
instability. LSM plays an important role in risk
parallels, elongated ridges approximately north-
mitigation. LSM also provide an important basis
east (NE) to the southwest (SW) as shown in
for the measure aimed at decreasing the risks
Fig. 2, which are locally named Osado and
associated with landslides (Ayalew et al. 2005;
Kosado and cover approximately 856 km2. In
Dou et al. 2014).
this tool, we concentrate on the Osado Island.
In literature, binary logistic regression
Climate is humid, subtropical with warm sum-
(BLR) and artificial neural network
mers and cold winters. The average temperature
(ANN) methods are considered to be the two of
is 13.7 °C and the annual precipitation is

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A Comparative Study of the Binary Logistic Regression (BLR) … 141

Fig. 1 Flowchart shows overall methodology adopted for this tool

approximately 1550 mm (Yamagishi 2008). The
elevation varies from sea level to 1172 m with a
mean of 333 m. The highest point of the island is
the peak of Mt. Kimpoku in Osado. The geology
of the island is Neogene terrestrial and marine
volcanic: rhyolitics (dacitics) and andesitics,
associated with pyroclastics and rhyolitic intru-
sives. Most of the coastal slopes are rugged
rocky, and some shores are recently formed
semi-consolidated and unconsolidated sand and
gravel. Consisting principally of mountains, hills,
and upheaved benches and active faults, study
area is prone to landsliding and debris disasters
(Yamagishi 2008). In the Osado area, the land-
slides are triggered mostly by rainfall and partly
by snow melting. The landslide types are mostly
deep-seated, translational and rotational slides as
shown in Fig. 3, excluding the rock falls. Most of
the deep-seated landslides are inventoried in the
rhyolitics and dacitics. The landslide
susceptibility may also be influenced by rainfall,
snow melting, geology, slope aspect, and slope
angle.
2.2 Landslide Inventory
The first step is to build the landslide inventory
map. In this tool, a total of 825 known landslides
(Fig. 4) was first obtained for the model devel-
opment; these landslides were interpreted by the
landslide experts at the National Research Insti-
tute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention
(NIED), Japan. NIED has been producing these
landslide inventory since the year 2000 from the
interpretation of multiple aerial photographs. The
landslides are depicted as boundary polygons in
GIS shape file format and are available at NIED
archives. It is observed from the landslide
inventory map that most landslide areas are

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142
Fig. 2 False color composite
3D view of the study area
greater than 0.01 km2. The total area of land-
slides is about 57 km2, and accounts for
approximately 15% of the Osado area. The areas
of all the mapped landslides display a frequency
distribution that can be described by a power law
for approximately three orders of area with a
good fit (R2 = 0.95) (Fig. 5 in Osado). In this
study, the landslide distribution was examined
only for medium to large landslides
(2.34  103–8.48  105 m2) with a significant
rollover value (1.13  104 m2). The power law
can be used to examine and describe the
khangdq@gmail.com
J. Dou et al.
dominant landslide areas (Guzzetti et al. 2002).
In this tool, we show that the landslide inventory
from NIED offers further strong support for the
theory that landslide frequency-area statistics are
power law for landslides that exceed a smallest
length scale. The exponent of the power law (1.6)
indicates that the large landslide areas are
dominant.
Different sampling strategies are available to
construct the reliable landslide susceptibility
maps. Several previous researches preferred to
use ‘points’ to represent the spatial location of
A Comparative Study of the Binary Logistic Regression (BLR) …
Fig. 3 Examples of
identified major landslide
types in the Kosado Island:
a rotational slide that severely
damaged the agricultural
roads, b translational slide in
the hilly terrains that carved
the dense vegetation
landslides (Tien Bui et al. 2012). Dai and Lee
(2003) delineated only the source areas during
the landslide susceptibility assessments and
excluded both the transport and the deposition
zones of existing landslides. Comparisons of
such sampling strategies are however beyond the
purpose of this research. Here, we adopted one of
the most popular methods- the polygon of land-
slide to represent the spatial location (Yalcin
et al. 2011). For building models, the landslide
inventory was randomly partitioned into two
groups: a training dataset (70%) and a validation
dataset (30%).
2.3 Landslide Predisposing Factors
Landslides occurrence are influenced by the
interaction of topographic, hydrological and
geological factors (Costanzo et al. 2012; Dou
et al. 2014), therefore, the selection of the pre-
disposing factors is considered to be a funda-
mental step in the susceptibility modeling.
According to the previous studies (Ayalew
et al. 2005; Dou et al. 2015d; c) in this study,
these six predisposing factors including slope
angle, slope aspect, drainage density network,
distance to the geologic boundaries, distance to
fault and lithology (Fig. 6) have high relationship
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143
with landslide occurrence. Hence, we extract
these six predisposing factors to produce the
landslide susceptibility mapping.
Additionally, the source data for the landslide
predisposing factors may vary in their scale and
affect the accuracy of landslide susceptibility
models. To be commensurate with the diversity
of the data source and difference in the scales, we
converted all the factors to a raster format with a
resolution of 10 m.
3 Methods
3.1 Binary Logistic Regression (BLR)
Binary logistic regression (LR) is one of the most
frequently used multivariate analysis methods for
creating landslide susceptibility mapping models.
The dependent variable in the LR method is a
function of the probability and can be computed
as follows (Lee and Pradhan 2006):
P
expð bxÞ
PðY ¼ 1jxÞ ¼ P x ð1Þ
1 þ exp ð bxÞ
where P is the estimated probability of landslide
occurrence and ranges from 0 to 1; Y is an
indicator variable, X is the independent
144 J. Dou et al.

Fig. 4 a Landslide inventory map for the study area overlaying the aerial ortho-photographs provided by the
randomly divided into two groups overlaid the shaded Midori Net Niigata and Sado city acquired in 2005. The
relief (10 m DEM): training dataset and validation yellow line is the primary slide and blue line is secondary
samples: b the enlargement of a landslide location one

variables,X = (x0 ; x1 ; x2 ; . . .xn Þ,x0 ¼ 1; b is

regression coefficient.
To linearize the mentioned method as well as
remove the 0/1 boundaries for the original
dependent variable, the estimated P(probability)
is transformed by the following formula:
 
0 P
P ¼ ln ð2Þ
1P

The alteration is referred to as the logit

transformation. Theoretically, the logit transfor-
Fig. 5 Probability distribution of landslide areas in the
Osado Island
mation of binary data can ensure that the

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A Comparative Study of the Binary Logistic Regression (BLR) … 145

Fig. 6 Landslide predisposing factors: a slope angle, b slope aspect, c drainage density, d lithology, e distance to
geological boundaries, and f distance to faults

dependent variable is continuous and the logit
transformation is boundless. Moreover, it can
ensure that the probability surface will be con-
tinuous within the range [0, 1]. Using the logit
transformations, the standard linear regression
models can be obtained as follows:
 
0 P
P ¼ ln
1P
¼ b0 þ b1 x 1 þ b2 x 2 þ


þ bn x n þ e
where, b0 is the constant or intercept of the for-
mula, b1 ; b2 ; . . .bn represents the slope coeffi-
cients of the independent parameters, x1 ; x2 ; . . .xn
in the logistic regression and e is standard error.
3.2 Back-Propagation
for Feed-Forward Artificial
Neural Network (ANN)
ð3Þ ANN has also been successfully implemented for
evaluating landslide susceptibility by several

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146 J. Dou et al.

researchers (Zare et al. 2013; Dou et al. 2015e).
Our tool focuses on a particular type of ANN
model, known as a back-propagation neural
network. Back-propagation neural network
(BPNN) algorithm is used in the feed-forward
ANN. This is typically used to train the network
among the different types of ANN models
including radial basis function (RBF), general
regression neural networks (GRNN), and proba-
bilistic neural networks (PNN). The BPNN
algorithm is simply a gradient-descent algorithm
(also called a generalized delta rule) that uses to
minimize the total error or mean error of target
computed by the neural network. This algorithm
is a neural network that is composed of three
layers, input, hidden, and output. The structure of
a typical three layer BPNN is displayed in Fig. 7.
The input layer propagates components of a
special input vector after weighting synaptic
weights to each node in the hidden layer. Each
hidden layer computes outputs corresponding to
these weighted sums through a non-linear/linear
function, e.g., log-sigmoid, purelin, or
tan-sigomid (Prasad et al. 2012). The details can
be referred to the reference (Dou et al. 2015d).
4 Implementation of Landslide
Susceptibility Mapping
4.1 Landslide Susceptibility Mapping
Using BLR Mode
In this tool, the forward stepwise logistic
regression approach was used to incorporate
predictor variables with a main contribution to
the presence of landslides, using the SPSS 20
software. In the training dataset 578 landslides
represented the presence of landslide points and
were assigned the value 1. In agreement with the
equal proportions of landslide and non-landslide,
the same number of non-landslide points were

Fig. 7 An example of
structure of a typical
three-layer feed forward Inputs Hidden Neurons Output Neurons Output layer

BPNN Elevation yh1(u) yo1(u)

Slope angle yh2(u)

Slope aspect yh3(u)

yo2(u)
Total Curvature yh4(u)

Plan curvature yh5(u)

Landslide susceptibility

yo3(u)
Profile curvature yh6(u)

SPI
yh7(u)

CTI yh8(u)

Drainage density
yh9(u)
network
Distance to drainage
network yh10(u)

Density of geological yh11(u)

boundaries
Distance to geological yh12(u)
boundaries
Distance to fault yh13(u)

Lithology yh14(u) yon(u)

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A Comparative Study of the Binary Logistic Regression (BLR) … 147

Table 1 Coefficients, statistics of the factors and the multi-collinearity diagnosis indexes for variables used in the
logistic regression equation
Predisposing factors Coefficient S.E. Wald df P-value Exp Collinearity
(B) statistics
Tolerance VIF
Slope angle 1.209 0.193 39.364 1 0 3.351 0.977 1.023
Slope aspect 0.283 1.574 0.032 1 0.085 1.327 1 1
Drainage density 0.123 0.429 0.082 1 0.077 1.131 0.999 1.001
Lithology 0.879 1.564 1.442 1 0.023 0.153 0.994 1.006
Distance of geological 0.853 0.571 0.013 1 0.093 2.347 0.973 1.028
boundaries
Distance to faults −0.441 0.888 0.247 1 0.061 0.643 0.988 1.012
Constant 0.791 0.121 42.699 1 0.000 2.206

randomly sampled from the landslide-free area
and assigned the value 0.
The result is shown in Table 1. It shows that
all the predisposing factors have a P-value less
than 0.1, indicating a statistical correlation
between factors and the susceptibility of land-
slides at the 90% confidence level. Additionally,
it is necessary to examine the effect of correlation
because logistic regression is sensitive to
collinearity among the independent variables.
The variance inflation factor (VIF) and tolerance
(TOL) are widely used indexes of the degree of
multi-collinearity. A VIF value greater than or
equal to 5 and a TOL value less than 0.2 indi-
cates a serious multi-collinearity problem
(O’brien 2007). In this tool, both of these indexes
were calculated (Table 1), the maximum VIF and
minimum TOL were 1.028 and 0.973, respec-
tively. Therefore, there is no multi-collinearity
between these variables in the study.
Lastly, the regression coefficients of the pre-
dictors were imported to generate the landslide
susceptibility map (Fig. 8) in GIS. The map of
classes are also applied the natural break classi-
fication to divide the boundaries of each class.
4.2 Landslide Susceptibility Mapping
Using ANN Model
In this tool, the three layers of the BPNN were
simulated using the Matlab R2012a software. To
select the number of hidden neurons, we ran-
domly set the neurons and run the 10 times of
network to choose the average value of R2 for
reducing the effect of initial value in the BP
network. From Fig. 9, when the number of hid-
den neurons is 10 that R2 has the highest values
(0.96) as shown in Table 2. Hence, the numbers
of hidden neurons were selected as 10. The
structures of the networks required in the BPNN
were constructed as 6-10-1
(input-hidden-output). The weights between the
layers were obtained by training the BPNN net-
work to compute the contribution of each
landslide-conditioning factor. To test the stability
of the BPNN model, it was iterated ten times,
each with a random set of landslide data selected
from the entire data pool. The results were found
to be similar. The standard deviation was 0.0032.
Hence, the random samples did not have a sig-
nificant influence on the results. In this case, the
average values were computed only to interpret
the results.
When the BPNN reached the minimum
RMSE values (0.001), the entire study area was
fed into the network to assess the landslide sus-
ceptibility mapping. The weights for minimum
error were recorded in the process and weights of
each factor were determined for the study area.
The set of landslide index values obtained in
each pixel were then converted to raster in GIS
environment. We used the six factors (slope
angle, slope aspect, drainage density network,

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148 J. Dou et al.

Fig. 8 LSM maps produced by the BLR method. Maps maps (b). Referred to the Fig. 4b, we can see that the
indicate the spatial probability of landslide occurrence in landslides locates in the extremely high areas
six classes (a). The right map is enlargements of the LSM

Fig. 9 Number of hidden

neurons influences the back
propagation network:
coefficient of determination
R2 has the largest value (0.96)
when the number of hidden
neurons is 10

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A Comparative Study of the Binary Logistic Regression (BLR) … 149

Table 2 Results of 10 times running the back propagation network model for selection of the number of hidden
neurons
Number of hidden neurons Coefficient of determination (R2)
Minimum Maximum Average
3 0.67 0.93 0.83
4 0.73 0.95 0.86
5 0.68 0.92 0.84
6 0.64 0.91 0.86
7 0.76 0.94 0.87
8 0.69 0.92 0.85
9 0.63 0.94 0.89
10 0.84 0.97 0.96
11 0.78 0.96 0.93
12 0.74 0.95 0.92

Fig. 10 LSM maps produced by the BPNN method. LSM maps. At the right map, the black is the main scarp
Maps indicate the spatial probability of landslide occur- and the blue line is the almost dissected crown
rence in six classes. The right map is enlargements of the

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150
distance from the geologic boundary, distance to
fault and lithology) to produce the landslide
susceptibility mappings as shown in Fig. 10.
4.3 The Validation of the Landslide
Susceptibility Models
It is critical to verify the accuracy of any prediction
model. Without the validation, the predicted
model and LSM maps lack in the necessary sci-
entific significance (Chung and Fabbri 1993).
LSM results can be validated using the known
landslide locations. For the verification, the total
landslides were divided into two groups, training
data, and validation data. We verified the accuracy
of the BLR and BPNN model using a receiver
operating characteristic (ROC) curve.
A ROC plot of sensitivity (true positive rate is
the portion of false positives out of the total
actual positives) and 1-specificity (false positive
rate is the portion of false positives out of the
total actual negatives) was made for the model
validation (Swets 1988). The area under the ROC
curve (AUC) can characterize the quality of a
forecasting system by describing the system’s
ability to correctly predict the occurrence or
non-occurrence of a predefined event (Swets
1988). The AUC value varies from 0.5 to 1.0. An
ideal model has an AUC value of 1.0. For the
proposed model, the AUC value (0.82) was
higher using BPNN than 0.78 using BLR model
(Fig. 11). Moreover, the AUC is significantly
Fig. 11 ROC curves for landslide susceptibility maps
produced using the BLR and BPNN methods
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J. Dou et al.
different from 0.5 because the p-value is 0.00
implying that the BPNN classified the group
significantly better than by chance.
5 Conclusion
Landslide susceptibility mapping is essential to
describe the propensity of a landslide in the area.
The LSM maps were then produced by applying
both the BLR and BPNN methods for the pre-
disposing factors. Both methods can achieve the
acceptable results. In addition, we noticed that
the maps prepared from using BPNN can obtain
a bit higher accuracy than BLR. This result is
well agreement with the other researchers. This
tool may be used to tackle similar issues of
landslide hazard mitigation in other susceptible
areas in any landslide-prone countries.
Additionally, the results of such studies can
provide helpful information for the disaster
managers, and for the decision makers in the
landslide-prone area. These maps can be useful
for them to select the suitable spatial locations to
implement reconstruction and urban develop-
ment landslide prevention and mitigation within
the hilly terrain (Hadji et al. 2013). The urban
planners can use such maps to avoid develop-
ment in landslide threatened areas; the practice
will represent the most efficient and economic
way to decrease future damages and loss of lives.
Acknowledgements We would like to express our deep
appreciation to Midori NET Niigata and Sado City for pro-
viding the ortho photographs of Sado Island and the NIED
for providing the landslide data. Here, Dou highly appreci-
ates Dr. Takashi Ougchi’s and Dr. Yuichi S. Hayakawa’s
guidance and support from the University of Tokyo.
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