AB1202 Lecture Summary2 … 11Aug’22

2.1 Multiplicative Method

For an experiment with multiple independent steps,

Total no. of outcomes
= product of no. of outcomes of all steps

Examples:

Experiment No. of outcomes

1. Toss 2 coins 4
2. Throw 3 dices 63

Nanyang Business School, chTan 2223 S1 T2 Q1,2,4,3

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2.1 / 2.2 Permutations & Combinations

No. of combinations:
R command:

T2 Q5, 6

No. of permutations:
R command:
Pn,k = n!/(n-k)!
T2 Q7
Difference: 1/k! WHY ???

Pn,k = k! Cn,k
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AB1202 Lecture Summary2 … 11Aug’22

Addition Rule: Union (∪) of events

What’s the
probability that a
card randomly
drawn from a
standard deck
will be either a
King or a Heart?

P(A U B)
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2.3 Conditional Probability

T2 Q9
Prob of A, given B:

Generally, P(A|B) ≠ P(B|A)

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AB1202 Lecture Summary2 … 11Aug’22

2.4 Statistical Independence

A & B are statistically independent if :

Events A & B are independent when the

occurrence of A has no effect on the probability of B
and vice-versa.
Statistically independence is a mutual relationship.
Calculate
P(A|B), P(A), P(B|A) & P(B).
Hence, determine if A & B are
statistically independent.
Nanyang Business School, chTan 2223 S1 Ans: ½ & 1/5

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2.4 Statistical Independence

T2 Q8,10
A & B are statistically independent if :

By definition (conditional probability):

Combining the above,

If A & B are independent:

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AB1202 Lecture Summary2 … 11Aug’22

Multiplication Rule: Intersection (∩) of events

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Multiplication Rule: Intersection (∩) of events

8/11

9/12
3/11

3/12
9/11

2/11

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AB1202 Lecture Summary2 … 11Aug’22

Conditional Probability: Practice Problem

Mr Tan and Ms Tan work together and have a choice of three

restaurants for their daily lunch: a steak house, an Italian restaurant and
a Chinese one. On any day, Ms Tan will go to the Chinese restaurant
with probability 0.4, the Italian with probability 0.5 and the steak house
with probability 0.1. If she goes to the Chinese restaurant, Mr Tan will
follow her with probability 0.6. If she goes to the Italian, he will follow
with probability 0.8 and if she goes to the steak house, he will follow with
probability 0.9.
a) What is the probability that
they have lunch together today?
b) If they had lunch together today,
what is the probability that they
had lunch in the Chinese restaurant?

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Conditional Probability: Practice Problem (Soln)

Ms Tan Mr Tan

0.6 C 0.24
C

0.8
I I 0.40
0.5

0.1 0.9
S S 0.09

0.73

a) P(had lunch together) = P(T) = 0.4(0.6) + 0.5(0.8) + 0.1(0.9) = 0.73

b) P(Chinese | had lunch together) = P(C|T) = P(C∩T) / P(T)
= 0.24 / 0.73
= 0.329
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