Business Statistics

Managerial Report

Case Name: HAMILTON COUNTY JUDGES

Case Questions:

Prepare a report with your rankings of the judges. Also, include an analysis of the likelihood

of appeal and case reversal in the three courts. At a minimum, your report should include the

following:

1. The probability of cases being appealed and reversed in the three different courts.

2. The probability of a case being appealed for each judge.

3. The probability of a case being reversed for each judge.

4. The probability of reversal given an appeal for each judge.

5. Rank the judges within each court. State the criteria you used and provide a rationale for

your choice. Who is the top-ranked judge, (i) overall and, (ii) court-wise?

Question 1: Probability of cases being appealed and reversed in the three different courts:

Answer:
 Common Pleas Court

Total Cases Appealed Total Cases Reversed Total Cases Disposed Probability of Appeal Probability of Reversal
1673 191 43850 0.0381
0.00435

Domestic Relations Court

Total Cases Appealed Total Cases Reversed Total Cases Disposed Probability of Appeal Probability of Reversal
106 17 30499 0.0035
0.00055

Municipal Court

Total Cases Appealed Total Cases Reversed Total Cases Disposed Probability of Appeal Probability of Reversal

513 103 109188 0.0046 0.00094

To Calculate the probability of cases being appealed and reversed in each court, we will be
using the following formulas:

 Probability of Appeal (P(Appeal)) = Number of Appealed Cases / Total Cases

Disposed
 Probability of Reversal (P(Reversal)) = Number of Reversed Cases / Total Cases
Disposed

By using the formulas, we have calculated the probability of cases being appealed and
reversed in 3 courts as shown in the table.
 We observe from the probabilities of reversed is least in Municipal court which
means it had least reversals to the judge’s decision which implies it was better as
compared to others as we can even see that the total cases disposed is also highest
for Municipal court.

Probability of the Probability of the Probability of case

Different Courts Judges case being case being reversal given an appeal
appealed reversed P(R|A)
Common Pleas Court Fred Cartolano 0.045 0.0039 0.087
Thomas Crush 0.035 0.0029 0.084
 Patrick Dinkelacker 0.034 0.0063 0.1818
Timothy Hogan 0.0307 0.0035 0.116
Robert Kraft 0.0404 0.0022 0.055
William Mathews 0.0401 0.0079 0.197
William Morrissey 0.039 0.0072 0.1818
Norbert Nadel 0.0442 0.0067 0.152
Arthur Ney Jr. 0.0388 0.0043 0.112
Richard Niehaus 0.0408 0.0047 0.1167
Thomas Nurre 0.0226 0.0013 0.0588
John O'Connor 0.0434 0.00404 0.093
Robert Ruehlman 0.045 0.0056 0.1241
J. Howard Sundermann 0.0279 0.0046 0.1666
Ann Marie Tracey 0.0404 0.0041 0.1023
Ralph Winkler 0.0284 0.0019 0.0681
Penelope Cunningham 0.0025 0.00036 0.1428
Domestic Relations Patrick Dinkelacker 0.0031 0.00066 0.2105
Court Deborah Gaines 0.0054 0.00102 0.1875
Ronald Panioto 0.00246 0.00023 0.0937
Mike Allen 0.0069 0.00065 0.09302
Nadine Allen 0.00435 0.00076 0.1764
Timothy Black 0.00516 0.00075 0.1463
David Davis 0.0056 0.00064 0.1162
Leslie Isaiah Gaines 0.0066 0.0025 0.3714
Karla Grady 0.00152 0 0
Deidra Hair 0.0057 0 0
Dennis Helmick 0.00367 0.0006 0.1724
Timothy Hogan 0.00563 0.0009 0.1538
James Patrick Kenney 0.0021 0.0004 0.1666
Municipal Court
Joseph Luebbers 0.0053 0.0015 0.28
William Mallory 0.0045 0.0011 0.2368
Melba Marsh 0.00413 0.0009 0.2058
Beth Mattingly 0.0043 0.0003 0.0769
Albert Mestemaker 0.0056 0.0018 0.3214
Mark Painter 0.0031 0.0013 0.4285
Jack Rosen 0.0052 0.0017 0.3171
Mark Schweikert 0.0061 0.0011 0.1818
David Stockdale 0.00409 0.0007 0.1818
John A. West 0.0012 0.0006 0.5
Questions 2, 3, and 4: The probability of a case being appealed, reversed, and reversal given an
appeal for each judge.

Answer:

So, to find the probabilities of the cases being appealed, reversed, and reversal given an
appeal for each judge by following formulas:

1. Probability of cases being appealed for each Judge:

This can be calculated by dividing the number of appealed cases by the total number of
cases disposed of by each judge.
P(A) = Number of Appealed Cases / Number of cases disposed
2. Probability of cases being reversed for each Judge:
This can be calculated by dividing the number of reversed cases by the total number of
cases disposed of by each judge.
P(R) = Number of Reversed Cases / Number of cases disposed
3. Probability of reversal given an appeal for each judge:
This can be calculated by dividing the number of reversed cases by the total number of
appealed cases of each judge
P(R|A) = Number of Reversed Cases / Number of Appealed Cases.

All the probabilities of the judges are calculated in the table above by which we can derive various
conclusions and also suggest where there is improvement necessary.

Question 5: Rank the judges within each court. State the criteria you used and provide a rationale for

your choice. Who is the top-ranked judge, (i) overall and, (ii) court-wise

Answer:

(i) Overall:

 I have done the analysis of judges in 2 criteria which are P(R|A) and P(A) as I found them the
most appropriate factors to rank the judges.
 If the P(R|A) is the lowest for the judge then he should be the top-ranked judge as he will be
having the lowest reversal to all the appealed cases and he made the right judgments but as
we have seen in the data there are 2 judges with 0 reversals so it becomes difficult to rank
them with P(R|A).
 Hence, I have used P(A) criteria as this tells us that from all the decisions given by the judge
only a few were appealed by the people hence this is the second most suitable criteria to
rank the judge.
 So, I will be considering both P(R|A) and P(A) to rank the judges.

Judges P(R|A) Rankings

Karla Grady 0 1
Deidra Hair 0 2
Robert Kraft 0.055118 3
 Thomas Nurre 0.058824 4
Ralph Winkler 0.068182 5
Beth Mattingly 0.076923 6
Thomas Crush 0.084034 7
Fred Cartolano 0.087591 8
John O'Connor 0.093023 9
Mike Allen 0.093023 10
Ronald Panioto 0.09375 11
Ann Marie Tracey 0.102362 12
Arthur Ney Jr. 0.112 13
David Davis 0.116279 14
Timothy Hogan 0.116667 15
Richard Niehaus 0.116788 16
Robert Ruehlman 0.124138 17
Penelope Cunningham 0.142857 18
Timothy Black 0.146341 19
Norbert Nadel 0.152672 20
Timothy Hogan 0.153846 21
J. Howard Sundermann 0.166667 22
James Patrick Kenney 0.166667 23
Dennis Helmick 0.172414 24
Nadine Allen 0.176471 25
Patrick Dinkelacker 0.181818 26
William Morrissey 0.181818 27
Mark Schweikert 0.181818 28
David Stockdale 0.181818 29
Deborah Gaines 0.1875 30
William Mathews 0.197802 31
Melba Marsh 0.205882 32
Patrick Dinkelacker 0.210526 33
William Mallory 0.236842 34
Joseph Luebbers 0.28 35
Jack Rosen 0.317073 36
Albert Mestemaker 0.321429 37
Leslie Isaiah Gaines 0.371429 38
Mark Painter 0.428571 39
John A. West 0.5 40

Probability of the case being

Judges Rankings
appealed
John A. West 0.0012 1
Karla Grady 0.00152 2
James Patrick Kenney 0.0021 3
Ronald Panioto 0.00246 4
Penelope Cunningham 0.0025 5
Patrick Dinkelacker 0.0031 6
Mark Painter 0.0031 7
Dennis Helmick 0.00367 8
David Stockdale 0.00409 9
Melba Marsh 0.00413 10
Beth Mattingly 0.0043 11
Nadine Allen 0.00435 12
William Mallory 0.0045 13
Timothy Black 0.00516 14
Jack Rosen 0.0052 15
Joseph Luebbers 0.0053 16
Deborah Gaines 0.0054 17
David Davis 0.0056 18
Albert Mestemaker 0.0056 19
Timothy Hogan 0.00563 20
Deidra Hair 0.0057 21
Mark Schweikert 0.0061 22
Leslie Isaiah Gaines 0.0066 23
Mike Allen 0.0069 24
Thomas Nurre 0.0226 25
J. Howard Sundermann 0.0279 26
Ralph Winkler 0.0284 27
Timothy Hogan 0.0307 28
Patrick Dinkelacker 0.034 29
Thomas Crush 0.035 30
Arthur Ney Jr. 0.0388 31
William Morrissey 0.039 32
William Mathews 0.0401 33
Robert Kraft 0.0404 34
Ann Marie Tracey 0.0404 35
Richard Niehaus 0.0408 36
John O'Connor 0.0434 37
Norbert Nadel 0.0442 38
Fred Cartolano 0.045 39
Robert Ruehlman 0.045 40

(ii) Court-Wise

Common Pleas Court:

Judges P(R|A) Rankings
 Robert Kraft 0.055118 1
Thomas Nurre 0.058824 2
Ralph Winkler 0.068182 3
Thomas Crush 0.084034 4
Fred Cartolano 0.087591 5
John O'Connor 0.093023 6
Ann Marie Tracey 0.102362 7
Arthur Ney Jr. 0.112 8
Timothy Hogan 0.116667 9
Richard Niehaus 0.116788 10
Robert Ruehlman 0.124138 11
Norbert Nadel 0.152672 12
J. Howard Sundermann 0.166667 13
Patrick Dinkelacker 0.181818 14
William Morrissey 0.181818 15
William Mathews 0.197802 16

Municipal Court
Judges P(R|A) Rankings
Karla Grady 0 1
Deidra Hair 0 2
Beth Mattingly 0.076923 3
Mike Allen 0.093023 4
David Davis 0.116279 5
Timothy Black 0.146341 6
Timothy Hogan 0.153846 7
James Patrick Kenney 0.166667 8
Dennis Helmick 0.172414 9
Nadine Allen 0.176471 10
Mark Schweikert 0.181818 11
David Stockdale 0.181818 12
Melba Marsh 0.205882 13
William Mallory 0.236842 14
Joseph Luebbers 0.28 15
Jack Rosen 0.317073 16
Albert Mestemaker 0.321429 17
Leslie Isaiah Gaines 0.371429 18
Mark Painter 0.428571 19
John A. West 0.5 20

Decision Relations Court:

Judge P(R|A) Rank

 Ronald Panioto 0.09375 1

Penelope Cunningham 0.142857 2

Deborah Gaines 0.1875 3

Patrick Dinkelacker 0.210526 4

Other Criteria:

By Finding these descriptive statistics we can determine changes and the average of the values and
see whether it is positively skewed.

Municipal Court P(R|A)

Mean 0.206311
Standard Error 0.029414
Median 0.1791
Mode 0
Standard Deviation 0.131543
Sample Variance 0.017304
Kurtosis 0.112778
Skewness 0.556956
Range 0.5
Minimum 0
Maximum 0.5
Sum 4.12622
Count 20
 Common Pleas Court P(R|A)

Mean 0.1185125
Standard Error 0.011351703
Median 0.114
Mode 0.1818
Standard Deviation 0.045406811
Sample Variance 0.002061779
Kurtosis -1.01379976
Skewness 0.365094146
Range 0.142
Minimum 0.055
Maximum 0.197
Sum 1.8962
Count 16

Domestic Relations P(R|A)

Mean 0.158625
Standard Error 0.0258045
Median 0.16515
Mode N/A
Standard Deviation 0.051609
Sample Variance 0.00266349
Kurtosis -1.3924952
Skewness -0.55272856
Range 0.1168
Minimum 0.0937
Maximum 0.2105
Sum 0.6345
Count 4
 CONCLUSION

We have done our analysis on the basis of how many reversals a judge got given the number of
appeals we classified a judge as efficient if they have a low number of appeals and the low number
of reversals of those appeals.

Through analysis, we found that:

1. The best performing Judge was Karla Grady as she got only 8 appeals and 0 reversals. Deidra
Hair also had zero reversals so we found the probability of appealed cases which shows that
Karla Grady followed well in both the criteria and also as she has given a smaller number of
cases disposed of and had a higher number of appeals so she is ranked second.

2. Common Pleas Court was the best-performing court as it had the lowest rate of appeals
overturned and as appeals are often the result of mistakes made by judges this shows that
they were very accurate and efficient in their judgment.

3. Through this report we can further predict and forecast the number of appeals and their
reversal for judges and predict their future performance using further analysis.

4. Descriptive probability can also be the judging factor for the given data, I have found the
mean and median also and also found that the mean is higher than the median which tells
us that it is positively skewed and even checks the underperforming judges who are placed
lower than mean and median.

5. Top Performing Judges of Each Court:

 Domestic Relations Court: Ronald Panioto
 Common Pleas Court: Robert Kraft
 Municipal Court: Karla Grady