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LR 1 Intro
LR 1 Intro
An Introduction to Statistics
(based largely on PS Mann Chapter 1)
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About this course
• Lecture Sessions
• Tutorial Sessions
• Assessment
– Final exam
– Coursework (On-line)
• Resources on myelearning
• Recommended Text
• Study methods
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• Statistics is the science of collecting, analyzing,
presenting, and interpreting data, as well as of
making decisions based on such analyses.
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• Statistics is the science of collecting, analyzing,
presenting, and interpreting data, as well as of
making decisions based on such analyses.
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The word “Statistics” is used in two ways:
• Numbers or ‘numerical facts:
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Like many fields of study, Statistics has two aspects:
theoretical and applied.
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What can you discern about these two data sets?
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Suppose you see a 6-foot lady walking down the street
• Your first thought? “she is tall for a lady”
• How did you come up with this? Do you have the height of every lady
on the planet?
• No! But based on your experience, of the women you have seen, this
particular one seems unusual. Why?
• This is an example of Inferential Statistics in daily life
• The required areas of knowledge of Inferential Statistics to be covered
in this course are as follows:
– Estimation;
– Tests of Hypotheses;
– Regression and Correlation Analysis.
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Population
– the collection of all elements of interest (all women)
Sample
– the selection of a few elements from this population is called a sample
(all women you have seen)
Inferential Statistics
– deals with making generalizations or inferences about populations
based on results obtained from samples (she is tall for a woman)
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Suppose that we wish to find answers to such questions as:
• Did the number of persons living below the poverty line decline over
the last decade?
• Are serious crimes more prevalent today than ten years ago?
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How do we collect information? Via a survey.
Census = a survey that includes every element of
the target population
Sample survey = a survey that collects
information from a portion of the population
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Specialized agencies exist in both the private and public sectors that
undertake the collection and dissemination of data. These include:
• Statistical Institute of Jamaica
• Central Statistical Office (Trinidad and Tobago)
• Central Banks (Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, Jamaica, OECS etc)
• Planning Units/Ministries of Governments across the Caribbean
• Elections and Boundaries Commissions in each country of the
Caribbean
• CARICOM
• Association of Caribbean States (ACS)
• Organization of American States (OAS)
• CAREC
• PAHO/WHO
• UNESCO
• UNDP
• IADB
• World Bank. 21
Any statistical decision problem possesses five
components, namely:
• a clear specification of the question to be answered and
a clear definition of the data that is to be considered
• a decision on how to select a sample -the sampling
procedure and the design of the experiment
• the collection of data
• the establishment of a procedure for making inferences
(generalizations) about a population based on the
sample information
• a provision for measuring the goodness or reliability of
the inference. 22
Statistical Investigation
Conceptually, the activities involved in executing a statistical investigation can be
organized into four stages namely:
Experiment/Survey Design
• defining the population
• selecting the sampling method
• deciding on the sample size
• defining the data to be collected from the sample
• deciding on the form of collection
• designing an instrument for the collection of data.
Information Quantification
• data collection
• audit of data in the field
• coding of data
• audit of the coded data
• data entry to create the dataset
• validation of the dataset
• summary of data into tables and charts
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Statistical Investigation (cont’d)
Making the Inference
• select the appropriate method for making the
generalization
• computing the summary measures from the dataset
• making the generalization (inference) based on the
results of the sample survey
Reliability Attestation
• testing the inference to quantify the likelihood of error.
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Next Steps
• Each Lecture Outline will be posted onto the website on the
weekend, after the weekly lectures are complete.
• These are Lecture Outlines only, which means you have to use
these broad topics, read the relevant chapter in the Mann and do a
complete review.
• The Mann chapters all contain some excellent review questions that
you should attempt.
• The tutorial sheets will ask some questions on material that was not
explicitly covered in the lecture but is within the relevant Chapter of
the Mann.