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Mehtodalgy
Literature Review
In recent years, countries worldwide have actively researched the power field.
Deep learning technology has brought new opportunities and challenges to
power load forecasting [5]. The power system’s main task is to provide a safe
and reliable power supply for the consumers. Therefore, energy forecasting is
of considerable significance to the power field. Accurate power load
forecasting is of great importance for saving energy, reducing power
generation costs, and improving social and economic benefits. With the
development of power reform and the deepening of power marketization,
energy load forecasting has become more critical in the power system. It is
also essential to increase power demand forecasting accuracy for the power
system’s stable and efficient operation. Nonrenewable energy sources such as
coal, oil, natural gas, fossil fuels, nuclear, minerals, etc., cannot be regenerated
in a short period, and their consumption rate far exceeds their regeneration
rate.
The author in [6] present a technique for predicting power factor variations in
three phase electrical power systems, using machine learning algorithms. The
proposed model was developed and tested in medium voltage installations and
was found to be fairly accurate thus representing a cost reduced approach for
power quality monitoring.
Yang et al. [9] have reported that the number of publications on the prediction
of electric power demand or consumption has been steadily increasing for 20
years, from eight in 1999 to 148 in 2018 [1]. Power demand forecasting for
the amount of electric power transaction EPT needs to be predicted by time,
day, month, year, and so on because the predicted value can be deferent
according to time scale. There are deep correlations among electric power
demand, amount of EPT, and optimal.
A model with [8] paper designated date, temperature and special day as
variables to predict the amount of electric power transaction (EPT) of the
Korea Electric Power company. They proposed single deep learning
algorithms and hybrid deep learning algorithms. The former included multi-
layer perceptron (MLP), convolution neural network (CNN), long short-term
memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), support vector machine
regression (SVR), and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system
(ANFIS). Then selected a high-accuracy algorithm after measuring root mean
square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percent error (MAPE).
In [7] paper, the prediction of PPF using the ANFIS was conducted. Two
input variables, control rod position, and neutron flux were collected while the
PPF was calculated using TRIGLAV code as the data output. These input-
output datasets were used for ANFIS model generation, training, and testing.
In this study, four ANFIS model with two types of input space partitioning
methods shows good predictive performances with R2 values in the range of
6%e97%, reveals the strong relationship between the predicted and actual PPF
values.
Using nonlinear regression and fuzzy c-means clustering, Chen et al. [23] also
seeks to predict the subsequent day's energy consumption whilst factoring in
the trends which exist within the time-based characteristics. The study looks at
how features diversify and which factors influence this. Whilst the hypothesis
that a consistent energy pattern can play a crucial role in increasing the
accuracy levels of predictions is stated clearly from the outset; it is unclear
whether any new learning are gained from this other than the applicable
techniques themselves. As expected, incorporating weather statistics improves
the extrapolations. Prediction windows are predetermined and cover what is
described as "different typical seasons respectively". Revisiting the use of
data-driven techniques seen in Eneyew et al. [21], Yiyi et al. [24] looks at
predicting the daily usage of electricity in a residential dwelling for 17 months
from 2013 to 2015. The homes involved have indoor sensors to record
environmental settings to predict daily consumption through a 1-Dimensional
Convoluted Neural Network (CNN) and an LSTM recurrent solution. Outliers
were removed from the dataset with a Principal Component Analysis (PCA),
reducing the number of independent variables used in the study to 16.
With respect to the time prediction there is many techniques, among various
techniques for predicting electric power demand, STLF is an essential
component of energy management systems (EMS) because it provides input
data for load flow and accidental analysis [3].
The authors in [1] present several solutions to implementation deep
learning algorithm (genetic algorithm two-stage approach) to predict
or forecast the exceeding level of loads (for a month time ) so the
capacity volume to be contracted in the following month can be
optimized, also the network charge for can be minimized. The model
was using multiple output artificial neural network prediction to
deliver significant benefits to customers. On other side the
maximum demands of customers are predicted with the deep
learning model (hybrid approach), simultaneously, to determine the
optimal capacity contract. In that paper a short-term load
forecasting (STLF) technique to forecast the maximum load taken
from the grid. The STLF technique usually aims to predict the load
up to one week ahead.
Hernandez et al. (2014) [11] have explained that weekly, daily, and hourly
forecasts are the most important forecasts. Among the four forecasts they
emphasize prediction of power demand for the next 24h because power
companies require accurate forecasting power demand.
Artificial intelligence including deep learning and machine learning has been
widely researched in various fields such as autonomous driving vehicle [12],
global horizontal irradiance [13], stock prices [14], wind speed [15], traffic
flow [16], and prediction of EPT amount and demand.
Various works has been surveyed and classified in [8]. A machine learning
techniques (MLTs) in [17] had been used to build a prediction model of the
electrical disturbances that may occur in the system. The proposed system is
used for features selection and classification of an open source electrical
disturbances dataset available online. Ant colony optimization is used for the
features selection and 5 MLTs are adopted for classification; k-nearest
neighbor, artificial neural networks, decision tree, logistic regression, and
naïve bayes.
Other related studies have researched short-term forecasting with different
approaches and various timelines used for the target prediction. Oprea [18]
forecasts the consumption of electric energy for the following 24 hours while
Khan et al. [19] focuses on several different periods in the near future for a
multitude of energy types. Short term forecasting can generally expect to
attain a high level of accuracy as predictions are likely to mirror present
trends. Khan et al. [19] focuses on the forecasting of power through a fusion
of 3 different machine learning approaches. As noted within the report,
"Combinations of prediction methods are receiving increasing attention".
Therefore ensemble learning is joining multiple different models to get a more
robust learning outcome. The study presents a combination of CatBoost with
both Support Vector Regresso (SVR) and Multilayer Perception(MLP). Each
model is trained independently, with the results concatenated for final
forecasting figure. Oprea [18] incorporates a NoSQL database (Mongo DB) to
merge energy consumption data from a residential building containing smart
meters with weather patterns of the same timeframe. The study looks at
implementing a feed-forward. Artificial Neural Network (ANN), with the
option of bench-marking against numerous other pre-existing algorithms.
During the initial analysis of the data, the factors that influence consumption,
such as weather characteristics, day of the week, and time of the year, are
given a ranking number representing how significant they are in the amount of
energy used within the building. Next, the application of K means clustering
partitions, customers into groups where the consumption levels are similar.
The aggregation of data into 24-hour values means that the consumption for
the building as a whole for the next 24 hours can be predicted.
It is interesting to note that whilst Oprea [19] analyses the building as a whole,
Shapi et al. [20] splits the study between 2 separate commercial type
customers and also drills down into the data as opposed to aggregating it.
Predicting energy consumption within a smart building begins with analyzing
the data collected from Internet of Things (IoT) meter sensors attached to
electrical sockets. The data can then be stored and examined on a granular
minute by minute level. The combination of K Nearest Neighbour(KNN),
Support Vector Machine(SVM), and an ANN within the methodology allows
the prediction of maximum demand based on electricity statistics, measuring
the spread of the distribution, and making forecasts based on predictions on
patterns mined within the data. The dataset is for a minimal amount of time
and only encompasses from June 2018 until December 2018 (for two different
tenants). Again this is in contrast to Oprea [18] whose study has a much more
comprehensive dataset containing over 6 million rows of data for 114 New
England based apartments with consumption readings also recorded on a
minute per-minute basis.
Time horizon selection. Numerous papers consider load forecasting, and
most of the works are mainly related to long-term optimization of the
electricity purchase and distribution process by suppliers and distributors. In
general, load forecasting has been investigated by utilities and electricity
suppliers, where long-term load forecasts (LTLFs) are used to predict the
annual peak of the power system [26] to manage future investments in terms
of modernization and launch new units to maintain the stability of nationwide
electricity demand over time periods of up to 20 years . Medium-term load
forecasts (MTLFs) use hourly loads to predict the weekly peak load for both
power and system operation planning [27]. Short-term load forecasts (STLFs)
usually aim to predict the load up to one week ahead, while very short-term
load forecasts (VSTLFs) are used for a time horizon of less than 24 h. Both
STLF and VSTLF have engaged the attention of most researchers since they
provide necessary information for day-to-day utilities’ operations [28]. These
forecasts also become useful when dealing with smart grids, microgrids, peak
load anticipation, and intelligent buildings [29].
Most recent works include some classical techniques, such as autoregression
(AR) models [30], linear regression models [31], seasonal ARIMA models,
which have been used to forecast load consumption [32]. Unfortunately, their
capability to solve time series with complex seasonality and nonlinear series is
limited, in favor of artificial neural network (ANN) techniques and expert
systems [33]. Interestingly, the load forecasting field is one of the most
successful applications of ANNs in power systems. Neural Networks are able
to deliver better performance when dealing with highly nonlinear series
resulting from, e.g., the non-integer seasonality appearing as a result of
averaging ordinary and leap years (365.25 days).
Feature extraction is another interesting approach. It entails proposing new
features from the original ones to enhance relevant information. In this
context, disregarding temporal information results in the loss of time-related
information and redundancy of features.In this context [34], Luo et al.
developed an integrated artificial intelligence-based approach that was
combined with an evolutionary algorithm to enhance an adaptive deep neural
network model. The proposal was tested on hourly energy consumption data.
Liang et al. [35] presented a hybrid model. Such model combined empirical
mode decomposition, minimal redundancy, maximal relevance and general
regression neural network with fruit fly optimization algorithm. This
approach, called EMD-mRMR-FOA-GRNN, was validated using load data
from the Chinese city of Langfang. Finally, a systematic time series feature
extraction method called hierarchical time series feature extraction was
proposed by Ouyanf et al. [36]. This model was used for supervised binary
classification tasks and only used user registration information and daily
energy consumption data to detect anomaly consumption users with an output
of stealing probability. The performance of this proposal was tested using data
from over 100,000 customers.
In this work the electrical power system and actual energy consumption data
of cement plant(Lebda cement plant / libya) was selected for analysis of a
model for PF prediction, there is two feeder supply the system (11 kV) as
shown in fig (). The block diagram of the cement plant
The obtaining data for analysis from this plant was by means of three phase
analyzer (Vips),where the data are stored for(52 monitoring day with time
period of one hour for each day) in flash memory RAM. Recording is done
along with real time measurement for (each phase and for the total three
phases of each feeder) the power factor calculations [6]. Figures () shows the
measurement data where the PF data plotted as a function of measurement
time.
This purpose is to provide a reliable prediction of PF fluctuations by using
(ML) technique; in particular linear regression models have been used.
For this function to be stable and to be a good and reliable estimate of the
target variable, it is very important that these predictors are correlated with it.
Therefore, the first step would be to perform a correlation analysis between
these variables. The correlation is a statistical measure that indicates the extent
to which two or more variables move together.
It can be observed that the highest correlation was obtained between phase
currents and power factor whereas a weak correlation factor is observed
between phase voltages and PF. Therefore, the use of only phase currents to
predict PF is justified.
ML normality
decision maker
Data Visualisation( Histograms and KDE analysis)
Training and mean square Errors
Evaluation and Results of Developed Models
Fitting results discussion
The plots in Figure 10 show a rather good fit between model predicted data
and actual measured PF values. These results validate the satisfactory
performance of the proposed model where only phase currents were taken into
account.
Conclusion
In this work a new approach to predict power factor variations has been
proposed relaying only on phase currents (without considering phase voltages)
thus simplifying thedata acquisition procedure and consequently reducing the
time and costs for a simplified power quality analysis at consumer facilities. It
also was shown that Random Forest model gives a very good result for
different sites (with different electrical loads). The root Mean Square Error
and the coefficient of determination obtained were quite acceptable. The
prediction results demonstrate the viability for use this model for PF variations
prediction using only phase currents as input variables in power systems
where the PF reflects the power consumption from the grid. Finally, the
developed model can be modified to adequately predict PF variations when
phase currents do not show a high correlation as a result of specific
installation conditions and to consider the presence of grid-connected
renewable energy sources.