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Section A Group 1 Final Submission
Section A Group 1 Final Submission
Section-A | Group 1
4. Merger Motives
5. Due Diligence
6. Deal Structuring & Analysis
8. Deal Outcome
9. Market Reaction
Strengths Weaknesses
• Strong product portfolio
• Investment in its Research and S • Intense Competition in the Indian market
• Dependence on a Limited Product Range,
This makes them vulnerable to market
Development division
• Global Distribution network
• Strong Market share in Oral care and W fluctuations and consumer preferences
• Bad Media reputation - Some of the facts
Nutritional supplements segments claimed by the nutritional products of GSK
were later disproved in the media.
Threats
• Regulatory Challenges - Several health
T Opportunities
• Growing number of health-conscious
regulatories may impose regulations leading
to some products potentially being deemed
unhealthy
O consumers
• Increase in the disposable income of the
average Indian consumer
• Economic uncertainties - high interest, tax • Possibility to exploit rural markets
rate on products would deter potential
buyers from consumer health products
Macro, Industry & Firm Analysis
SWOT Analysis - Acquirer - HUL
Strengths Weaknesses
• Wide product portfolio
•Innovative FMCG company – R&D
S •Declining Market share - Competitors
focusing on a particular product & eating
investment highest up HUL’s share
•Extensive & integrated distribution
system
W •Product cannibalization –
e.g., pepsodent and closeup
•Strong financial positioning •Controversial products like skin lightening
•Strong Social Media presence creams
Threats
•Intense competition in each category
T Opportunities
•Online retailing (possibility) vs OTC store
•Very low margin cause of intense price wars
•Switching costs are low
• Multiple new local businesses which are
O •Complementary business tie – ups and
acquisitions: building brand loyalty through
product differentiation without increasing
based on changing trends and consumer the price.
preferences. E.g., natural products, healthier •Opportunity of the potential rural market
products
Macro, Industry & Firm Analysis
PESTEL Analysis – Pharmaceutical Industry
Macro, Industry & Firm Analysis
Porter's 5 Forces Analysis – Consumer Healthcare
Macro, Industry & Firm Analysis
Value chain Analysis : Target
Strategic partnerships
Technological Capabilities
GSK's commitment to research, innovation and diverse product portfolio helps in possessing valuable, rare and
inimitable resources and capabilities that contributes to its competitive advantage in the industry.
Macro, Industry & Firm Analysis
VRIO Analysis of Acquirer
VALUE RARE INIMITABLE ORGANIZED
Strong market penetration
among Indian rural areas
HUL’s strong financial capital and it’s access to one of the most advanced supply chain networks in the world can help
GSK to advance the reach of it’s product
Corporate Strategies - HUL
Corporate Strategies – GSK CH
Merger Motives – HUL
Acquiring GSK will provide HUL an opportunity to diversify its product portfolio and
Market expansion and
enter new markets related to healthcare, prescription medicines, vaccines, and
diversification
consumer healthcare products
By acquiring GSK, HUL could gain access to GSK's R&D expertise, infrastructure, and
Strengthening research and resources. This could enhance HUL's capabilities in developing innovative products,
development capabilities accelerating new product launches, and staying competitive in the evolving
consumer healthcare market.
By acquiring GSK, HUL leverages GSK's distribution channels and expand its reach
Access to distribution
into new geographic regions. This would provide HUL with an opportunity to
networks and market reach
increase its market share and grow its customer base.
Synergies and cost HUL potentially identified areas where overlap exists between the two companies
efficiencies and streamline processes, supply chains, and administrative functions.
HUL and GSK have strong brands and product portfolios.
Brand and product
This could create cross-selling opportunities and enhance market positioning for
complementarity
the combined entity.
Financial gains for HUL HUL’s foods and refreshments business will cross Rs 10,000 Crores, compared to
post-merger Britannia Industries Ltd having consolidated revenue of Rs 9,990 Crores.
Merger Motives – GSK CH
GSK will reap the benefits of the Hindustan Unilever’s distributorship, vast market
Increased Marketing power
access, visibility, and its awareness of its consumers.
HUL would provide their distribution channels and would also keep their margins
Increased Supply Chain making it a win-win situation for both entities.
efficiencies Export of GSK India products would be handled by Unilever India Exports Limited
(UIEL), a subsidiary of HUL.
GSK decided to divest GSK India’s energy drink products to obtain capital in return.
Financial gains for GSK A combination of divestment was made by GSK in India, Bangladesh and other
post-merger territories against which the company will receive a total consideration of £3.1
Billion approximately.
Post the deal, GSK’s losing market share and the threat of competition from other
Avoiding threat of
Key players like Mondelez International (Bournvita), Pediasure (Abbott Nutrition)
competition
and Complan (H.J. Heinz) shall be effectively dealt with.
Due Diligence
a) Market Price Method ( 50% weightage) Pre-announcement closing price GSK Rs. 6531
Healthcare
b) Comparable companies Market Multiple
GSK share fundamental value post deal Rs. 7540
Method ( 50% weightage)
Average Growth of HUL stock between Dec ~18%
2018 & 1 April 2020
DEAL TERMS / RESULTS
Following the issue of new HUL shares, Unilever's holding in HUL will be diluted from 67.2% to 61.9%
The merger includes the totality of operations within GSK CH India, including a consignment selling contract to
distribute GSK CH India's over-the-counter and oral health products in India
This deal makes GSK consumers the largest subsidiary of Hindustan Unilever in terms of market valuation
Brands owned by GSK CH India (Boost, Viva & Maltova) to be retained by merged entity
Operational Rights:- GSK Consumer Healthcare will Limited will carry out its function independently; HUL will get
distribution rights to the following brands for a 5-year period: Sensodyne, Eno, Crocin
Horlicks brand in India and international markets currently owned by GSK plc ( including group companies) is
being acquired by Unilever
With 8.2 million outlets, HUL's wide network will expand the reach of Horlicks three-fold to untapped parts of the
country
HUL will upgrade and unlock the northern and western regions of India for GSK where it lacks the resources
Post Merger Integration
Very Much Not at All
Multi- Cultural Cultural
Perception of Attractiveness
Attractive
Related
Integration Assimilation
Integration Assimilation
Relatedness
Attractive
Unrelated
Separation Deculturation
Separation Deculturation
Not
Structure: GSK Asia retains the marketing and R & D rights. The residual entity
was be led by a GSK Consumer MD. The merger was carried out by 2 units: The
first handled core integration and the second handled the core nutrition portfolio
Emphasis & Timeline: Integration of IT, sales, distribution was emphasized. Due
to Covid 19 supply chain &manufacturing integration was delayed. Integration time
period was extended
Culture & HR related issues: Many of GSK ‘s India’s top executives come from the
HUL,cultural integration was easy.3500 employees of GSK CH was retained post
integration
Market Reaction
Deal Announcement Date : 3rd December 2018
• For a period of 6 months before and after the merger the stocks return is plotted and
• The stock price increases post the announcement of the deal which shows the positive
compared with the market index, the Nifty50 in this case.
reaction of the investors in the merger.
• There is a rally in the stock price of GSK Consumer healthcare following the merger with
• 5.06% rise in the HUL stock on the announcement day
a consistently higher returns over the next period of 6 months, the remaining noise could
• This signals that the market views this deal as being positive for both the companies HUL
be explained by the movement in the market index
and GSK Consumer health care, at least in the short run.
• 5.76% rise in the stock on the announcement day
Market Reaction
GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare – Cumulative abnormal returns
Day Date PriceGLSM ReturnGLSM PriceNifty50 ReturnNifty50 ExpGLSM ResGLSM CAR
12 Dec 19, 2018 7,802.25 -0.07% 10,967.30 0.54% 0.339% -0.409% 0.03473
11 Dec 18, 2018 7,807.50 0.19% 10,908.70 0.19% 0.203% -0.013% 0.03882
10 Dec 17, 2018 7,792.50 0.34% 10,888.35 0.77% 0.428% -0.088% 0.03895
9 Dec 14, 2018 7,766.10 0.19% 10,805.45 0.13% 0.180% 0.010% 0.03982
8 Dec 13, 2018 7,751.05 0.90% 10,791.55 0.50% 0.323% 0.577% 0.03972
7 Dec 12, 2018 7,682.20 2.03% 10,737.60 1.79% 0.823% 1.207% 0.03396
6 Dec 11, 2018 7,529.40 0.42% 10,549.15 0.58% 0.354% 0.066% 0.02188
5 Dec 10, 2018 7,497.85 -0.24% 10,488.45 -1.92% -0.614% 0.374% 0.02122
4 Dec 07, 2018 7,515.70 0.56% 10,693.70 0.87% 0.466% 0.094% 0.01749
3 Dec 06, 2018 7,473.75 -2.23% 10,601.15 -1.69% -0.525% -1.705% 0.01655
2 Dec 05, 2018 7,644.60 1.94% 10,782.90 -0.80% -0.180% 2.120% 0.03360
1 Dec 04, 2018 7,498.90 -0.64% 10,869.50 -0.13% 0.079% -0.719% 0.01240
0 Dec 03, 2018 7,547.40 3.84% 10,883.75 0.06% 0.153% 3.687% 0.01960
-1 Nov 30, 2018 7,268.20 0.82% 10,876.75 0.17% 0.195% 0.625% -0.01728
-2 Nov 29, 2018 7,209.05 0.23% 10,858.70 1.21% 0.598% -0.368% -0.02352
-3 Nov 28, 2018 7,192.40 1.31% 10,728.85 0.40% 0.284% 1.026% -0.01984
-4 Nov 27, 2018 7,099.05 -1.04% 10,685.60 0.54% 0.339% -1.379% -0.03010
-5 Nov 26, 2018 7,173.70 1.47% 10,628.60 0.97% 0.505% 0.965% -0.01631
-6 Nov 22, 2018 7,069.70 -1.14% 10,526.75 -0.69% -0.137% -1.003% -0.02596
-7 Nov 21, 2018 7,151.40 0.06% 10,600.05 -0.53% -0.076% 0.136% -0.01593
-8 Nov 20, 2018 7,147.35 -0.05% 10,656.20 -1.00% -0.257% 0.207% -0.01729
Regression Parameters
-9 Nov 19, 2018 7,150.75 -0.64% 10,763.40 0.76% 0.424% -1.064% -0.01937 Intercept 0.00129608
-10 Nov 16, 2018 7,196.45 2.80% 10,682.20 0.62% 0.370% 2.430% -0.00873 X Variable 1 0.38710069
-11 Nov 15, 2018 7,000.45 -3.12% 10,616.70 0.38% 0.277% -3.397% -0.03303 R Square 0.02236922
-12 Nov 14, 2018 7,225.55 0.20% 10,576.30 -0.06% 0.106% 0.094% 0.00094 Standard Error 0.01741351
Market Reaction
Hindustan Unilever Limited – Cumulative abnormal returns
Day Date Price_HUL Return_HUL PriceNifty50 ReturnNifty50 Exp_HUL Res_HUL CAR
12 Dec 19, 2018 1,844.80 0.22% 10,967.30 0.54% 0.531% -0.311% 0.0474
11 Dec 18, 2018 1,840.75 -0.54% 10,908.70 0.19% 0.256% -0.796% 0.0505
10 Dec 17, 2018 1,850.70 -0.53% 10,888.35 0.77% 0.711% -1.241% 0.0584
9 Dec 14, 2018 1,860.55 0.27% 10,805.45 0.13% 0.208% 0.062% 0.0708
8 Dec 13, 2018 1,855.55 0.89% 10,791.55 0.50% 0.499% 0.391% 0.0702
7 Dec 12, 2018 1,839.10 2.46% 10,737.60 1.79% 1.513% 0.947% 0.0663
6 Dec 11, 2018 1,794.90 -0.05% 10,549.15 0.58% 0.562% -0.612% 0.0569
5 Dec 10, 2018 1,795.80 -1.56% 10,488.45 -1.92% -1.402% -0.158% 0.0630
4 Dec 07, 2018 1,824.30 1.27% 10,693.70 0.87% 0.790% 0.480% 0.0645
3 Dec 06, 2018 1,801.50 -2.52% 10,601.15 -1.69% -1.222% -1.298% 0.0597
2 Dec 05, 2018 1,848.10 2.24% 10,782.90 -0.80% -0.522% 2.762% 0.0727
1 Dec 04, 2018 1,807.65 -0.98% 10,869.50 -0.13% 0.004% -0.984% 0.0451
0 Dec 03, 2018 1,825.60 4.08% 10,883.75 0.06% 0.153% 3.927% 0.0549
-1 Nov 30, 2018 1,754.00 -0.82% 10,876.75 0.17% 0.240% -1.060% 0.0157
-2 Nov 29, 2018 1,768.50 2.10% 10,858.70 1.21% 1.057% 1.043% 0.0263
-3 Nov 28, 2018 1,732.20 -0.06% 10,728.85 0.40% 0.421% -0.481% 0.0158
-4 Nov 27, 2018 1,733.30 -0.61% 10,685.60 0.54% 0.531% -1.141% 0.0207
-5 Nov 26, 2018 1,744.00 4.11% 10,628.60 0.97% 0.868% 3.242% 0.0321
-6 Nov 22, 2018 1,675.10 -0.88% 10,526.75 -0.69% -0.436% -0.444% -0.0004
-7 Nov 21, 2018 1,689.95 -0.24% 10,600.05 -0.53% -0.310% 0.070% 0.0041
-8 Nov 20, 2018 1,694.00 -0.43% 10,656.20 -1.00% -0.680% 0.250% 0.0034 Regression Parameters
-9 Nov 19, 2018 1,701.40 0.73% 10,763.40 0.76% 0.703% 0.027% 0.0009 Intercept 0.00106277
-10 Nov 16, 2018 1,689.10 -0.99% 10,682.20 0.62% 0.593% -1.583% 0.0006 X Variable 1 0.78578702
-11 Nov 15, 2018 1,706.05 -0.55% 10,616.70 0.38% 0.405% -0.955% 0.0165 R Square 0.1852744
-12 Nov 14, 2018 1,715.50 2.66% 10,576.30 -0.06% 0.059% 2.601% 0.0260 Standard Error 0.01121252
Market Reaction
Cumulative Abnormal Return (CAR) Analysis
GSK CH HUL
Day Range CAR T-Statistic Significance Day Range CAR T-Statistic Significance
•Market Reaction Model: Taking the data from -13 to -1 months from deal announcement date to get an unbiased correlation with
the market index, we obtained regression equation for both the stocks. Based on these equations, we calculated the predicted
returns and thus, the resultants abnormal returns.
•The Cumulative Absolute Return for HUL is largely positive on days just before and after the days of announcement. However the
CAR for GSK CH was in the negative ranges leading upto the merger but became and stayed positive after the announcement which
could imply positive market
•For both, even as we increase the event horizon but still it is insignificant considering significance of 95% (1.96)
-t to 0 days included to account for information leakage and 0 to t days included for information lag according to the market
inefficiency theory
Similar Deals
SDC Filters
Target Industry Drugs
Target Country India
Acquirer Country India
Time period considered 2010- Present
One of the biggest deals in the Among the highest Among the 48% of the
industry. premiums paid deals in which 100% is
54x the average deal value ~3x the average deal acquired
Similar Deals: Target Specifications
The target is having a next income • Most of the targets are Pharma
almost 2x of the average target preparations companies
• 77% of the target companies are
profitable. Low proportion of
distress sales
Unique Aspects about the Deal
The deal value was at almost 54x of the average deal value in the industry. This was among the
largest deals in the timeframe considered
The deal premium is significantly higher than the industry average. The target is in a strong
financial position, and this would have influenced this
Acquisition by a consumer products company is not common in the industry. This was among a
handful of those deals
Deal was done at a relatively shorter duration of 15 months despite the COVID restrictions
overlapping the time
Deal Verdict
• In December 2018, when HUL announced the
acquisition of GSK Consumer, the former’s
shares were around ₹1,717 each. But only in
May 2020 did GSK Consumer’s parent
company GlaxoSmithKline Plc (GSK) sell the
HUL shares it had received as compensation.
The good news is that the share sale was
concluded at ₹1,905 per share.