Ecological Indicators 153 (2023) 110474

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Ecological Indicators
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolind

Assessment and prediction of carbon storage based on land use/land cover

dynamics in the coastal area of Shandong Province
Huiling Zheng a, *, Huifeng Zheng b
a
College of Marine Geosciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, Shandong 266100, China
b
People’s Liberation Army of China Unit 93617, Beijing 101400, China

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) promote regional carbon storage capacity or trigger carbon depletion,
Carbon storage which in turn exhibited significant impact on global climate change. Understanding the impacts of LULC on
Coastal area of Shandong Province changes of carbon storage in coastal areas plays a critical role in the conservation of regional ecosystems and
InVEST model
sustainable socio-economic development. The present study acted the coastal area of Shandong Province as an
Land use and land cover
PLUS model
example to analyze the relationship between LULC and carbon storage combined with the Integrated Valuation of
Temporal-spatial evolution Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model. We further
predicted the variation of carbon storage through the change of LULC types under three scenarios in 2030. Our
results showed that cropland (which decreased by 9.41%) and built-up land (which increased by 7.66%) un­
derwent the most significant changes over the past 20 years, while forest, grassland, wetland, water and bare
land underwent less changes. As the dominant land type, cropland was also the most important carbon pool with
medium carbon storage. Areas with high carbon storage were distributed in the mountains and hills, where the
main land types were grassland and forest. In addition, wetland located in the Yellow River Delta also stores large
amounts of carbon. Accordingly, areas with low carbon storage were widely distributed in built-up land of urban
metropolitan regions. We pinpointed that the carbon storage in the coastal area of Shandong Province lost
47.96×106Mg due to the increasing of built-up land and the decreasing of cropland and forest, while ecological
protection measures would effectively enhance regional carbon storage. Specifically, the regional carbon storage
could be increased by 6.64×106Mg when the conversion of cropland, forest and grassland into built-up land was
reduced by 20% and the conversion of wetland and water into built-up land was reduced by 30% (under the
ecological priority scenario (EP)). We believe the present study could be a valid reference for administrators to
develop policies in more reasonable planning of land use and urban development to achieve carbon peaking and
carbon neutrality (“Dual Carbon” goals).

1. Introduction Studies have shown that as an important component of global carbon

Global warming caused by escalating atmospheric CO2 concentra­
tions degrades ecosystem services and biodiversity, thereby impacting
both human life and ecological health(Bellard et al., 2022; Li et al.,
2022b). Therefore, enhancing carbon storage and reducing carbon
emissions has become a key issue for social development (Makkonen
et al., 2015; Stankovic et al., 2021). Carbon sequestration in terrestrial
ecosystems has been emphasized in the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) and Kyoto Protocol, which has
drawn the attention of scholars and decision-makers(Cao et al., 2003;
Kantzas et al., 2022).
storage and emissions, terrestrial ecosystems play an important role in
mitigating climate change, which is subjected to land use and land cover
(LULC)(Fraissinet et al., 2023; Groshans et al., 2018; Liang et al.,
2021b). Being the most intuitive and widespread representation of
surface systems(Zhao et al., 2021), LULC covers four types of carbon
storage carriers, including aboveground biomass, belowground biomass,
soil biomass and dead biomass(Houghton, 2012; Jiang et al., 2017; Lai
et al., 2016). The carbon sequestration capacity of different LULC types
exhibited significant difference, which may directly shape the distribu­
tion of vegetation and soil, and in turn altering the carbon storage of
terrestrial ecosystems(He et al., 2018; Kertész et al., 2019; Landman,

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: zhl5765@stu.ouc.edu.cn (H. Zheng).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110474
Received 17 February 2023; Received in revised form 25 May 2023; Accepted 29 May 2023
Available online 9 June 2023
1470-160X/© 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-
nc-nd/4.0/).
H. Zheng and H. Zheng
2010; Zhang et al., 2015; Zhu et al., 2022). For example, Zhang et al.
(2015) showed that the change of LULC caused a loss of 279 Tg of carbon
storage in China’s terrestrial ecosystems from 1980 to 2010(Zhang et al.,
2015). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) also reported
that the change of LULC led to carbon release to the atmosphere at a rate
of 1.5 Pg/a. Therefore, it is efficient to understand the characteristics of
regional carbon storage and carbon balance changes from the perspec­
tive of LULC types, including the changes of carbon balance caused by
LULC structural changes(Tang et al., 2020), carbon storage potential
under various future scenarios(Liang et al., 2021b; Pan et al., 2020) and
the impact of land resource management on carbon balance(Nie et al.,
2020; Zhou et al., 2020).
For the above contents, scholars have adopted various methods to
validate in different areas. In particular, field surveys were mainly
applied to small-scale areas(Wang et al., 2005), while the geographical
method based on carbon density and LULC types was employed in large
and medium-scale areas(Quesada et al., 2018). CA-Markov is widely
used in IDRISI Selva(Nurwanda et al., 2016), FLUS(Tan et al., 2020) and
PLUS(Liang et al., 2021a) to simulate the type of LULC. The Integrated
Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model is
applied to evaluate the carbon storage of ecosystem due to its simplicity
of use, flexibility of parameter settings and accuracy of results analysis
(Thompson, 2018). What’s more, the combination of PLUS model based
on the CA-Markov algorithm and InVEST model has new insight on
LULC prediction and carbon storage assessment. For instance, Liang
et al. (2021) analyzed the characteristics of LULC and the changes of
carbon storage in the Loess Plateau of China. The results showed that
regional carbon storage would increase with the implementation of
ecological protection measures(Liang et al., 2021b). In Nanning and
Hainan Island, China, the expansion of urban built-up land area is the
leading factor in the reduction of carbon storage(Liu et al., 2022a; Nie
et al., 2020). Therefore, there are differences in the carbon storage of
various regions. The carbon storage of tropics changed significantly than
temperate zones due to its higher carbon density(Cruz et al., 2022;
Djomo et al., 2011). However, large amounts of tropical forests have
been cut down for the sake of economic benefits(Kiat et al., 2020), which
has led to a decrease in regional carbon storage(Bonini et al., 2018;
González-González et al., 2021; Hairiah et al., 2020; Kabuanga et al.,
2021; Tang et al., 2021; Tsozué et al., 2019; Zhang et al., 2002).
Compared with the tropics, the south and north temperate zones span
43◦ 8′ of latitude respectively, accounting for 52% of the global total
area. Wang et al. (2020) showed that temperate zones had the highest
(27.0%) soil organic carbon sequestration in the ecosystem, which was
affected by latitude(Wang and Huang, 2020). In general, the dynamic
characteristics of land types and carbon storage in temperate zones
deserved more attention.
The coastal area of Shandong Province is located in the temperate
zone and stores a large amount of carbon due to its various land types.
Thus, it plays an important role in the regional and global carbon cycle
and energy flow(Zhu et al., 2022). Given the land types of terrestrial and
marine in the study area, there are many researches about the rela­
tionship and conversion between LULC(Zhang et al., 2018) and soil
organic carbon(Dai et al., 2014). For instance, Cong et al. (2018)
analyzed the carbon sequestration capacity of Rizhao based on land use
data and found that the increase of forest from 1995 to 2015 resulted in a
net increase of 3.9×104t in the total regional carbon sequestration(Cong
and Sun, 2018). Li (2019) analyzed the characteristics of land use and
carbon storage changes in Shandong Peninsula from 2000 to 2015. The
results showed that the vegetation carbon storage in the region was in
the “carbon sink” stage due to the increase of wetland, while the soil
carbon storage decreased due to the increase of built-up land(Li, 2019).
Overall, the relationship of LULC and carbon storage in the coastal area
of Shandong Province is still poorly understood. It is well known that
coastal areas, as the transitional zone between terrestrial and marine,
have the most frequent human activities, which lead them to become
vulnerable areas of ecosystems(Hou and Xu, 2011). In recent years, the
2
Ecological Indicators 153 (2023) 110474
rapid economic development in the coastal areas of Shandong has led to
a population explosion and an increase in the scope and intensity of land
use, which threaten the ecosystem carbon storage service(Wu and Hou,
2015). Meanwhile, the regional development path under the influence
of “Dual Carbon” goals will be different from the past.
Here, we analyzed the characteristics of LULC and carbon storage in
the coastal area of Shandong Province from 2000 to 2020 based on the
PLUS and InVEST model. Furthermore, the influence mechanism of
LULC on carbon storage was revealed. At last, we predicted the variation
of carbon storage through the change of LULC types in 2030 under
different scenarios (natural trend scenario (NT), built-up land priority
scenario (BP) and ecological priority scenario (EP)). The results of this
study provide a scientific basis to optimize future land use allocation and
improve the ecosystem service function in the coastal area of Shandong
Province. In addition, the study will help to form an integrated and
regulated development model, which can provide practical guidance for
other similar coastal areas in eastern China(Xiang et al., 2022).
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Study area
Seven coastal cities in Shandong Province (Binzhou, Dongying,
Weifang, Yantai, Weihai, Qingdao and Rizhao) were selected as study
area (35◦ 48′ -38◦ 12′ N, 117◦ 32′ -122◦ 21′ E) (Fig. 1). There are Jiaodong
Hill in the east and Lu Mountain and Yi Mountain in the west. The
Yellow River flows into the Bohai Sea through Binzhou and Dongying,
forming the Yellow River Delta at its mouth, which is one of the four
major deltas (Yangtze River Delta, Yellow River Delta, Pearl River Delta
and Liao River Delta) in China. The climate belongs to warm-temperate
monsoon climate, with an average annual temperature of 11–14 ◦ C and
an annual precipitation of 650–850 mm. Total population reached 38.61
million in 2020, and the regional GDP (Gross Domestic Product) was
3,660.3 billion, accounting for 50% of that in Shandong Province. The
development of the economy and the increasing of population were
deeply influenced by human activities since the 21st century(Zhang
et al., 2019), which led to dramatic change in LULC types and carbon
storage.
2.2. Data sources
LULC raster datasets (30 m*30 m) in 2000, 2010 and 2020 were
derived from GlobalLand (www.globallandcover.com), which have been
classified into 7 land types. The carbon density data of LULC types were
divided into four categories: aboveground, belowground, soil organic,
and dead organic (Table 1)(Chuai et al., 2013; Dai et al., 2014; Li et al.,
2004; Liu et al., 2022a; Ma et al., 2019; Zhu et al., 2022).
The driving factor data for simulating future LULC types come from
the Geospatial Data Cloud (https://www.gscloud.cn), the Resource and
Environmental Science and Data Center of the Chinese Academy of
Sciences (https://www.resdc.cn), and OpenStreetMap (https://www.
openstreetmap.org) (Table 2).
2.3. Research methods
2.3.1. Analysis of LULC dynamics
The present study used LULC transfer matrix for LULC change
analysis. We used the Field Calculator in ArcGIS10.2 and Origin2022 to
map the spatial location of LULC types and the matrix of LULC con­
versions. The transfer matrix is described as follows:
⎡
p11 ⋯ p1n
⎤
P=⎣ ⋮ ⋱ ⋮ ⎦ (1)
pn1 ⋯ pnn
where P represents the LULC transfer matrix between years and the
H. Zheng and H. Zheng Ecological Indicators 153 (2023) 110474

Fig. 1. Location of the study area (This figure is created using ArcGIS 10.2 http://gisserver.domain.com:6080/arcgis/services).

(1) Forecasting LULC demand using Markov model.

Table 1
Carbon density of each LULC type (Mg/hm2). (2)
t2− t1
Dt2 = Dt1 × P a

LULC Type Aboveground Belowground Soil organic Dead organic

where Dt2 denotes LULC demand at t2; Dt1 denotes LULC status at t1;
Cropland 7.74 5.26 57.83 1.32 P represents the LULC transfer matrix between years; and a denotes the
Forest 28.38 10.82 95.35 2.15
difference between the starting and ending years for calculating P.
Grassland 14.29 15.19 75.7 8.46
Wetland 20.75 13.6 160.42 2.65
Water 0 0 0 0 (2) Future LULC simulation and validation.
Built-up land 0 0 20.78 0
Bare land 1.82 0 15.88 0 The random forest classification is an integrated decision tree-based
classifier that takes a random sample from the LULC expansion map,
calculates the relationship between the expansion of each LULC type and
Table 2 driver, and obtains the probability of expansion for each LULC type at
Details of driving factors data. different image pixel, with the following equation(Liang et al., 2021a):
Data Type Year Resolution Sources ∑M
(m)
I(hn (x) = d)
Pdi,k (x) = n=1 (3)
M
DEM 2010 30 Geospatial Data Cloud (http://www.
Slope gscloud.cn) where Pi,k represents the probability of expansion of LULC type k at
location i; the value of d is 1 or 0, where 1 means that conversion of other
Precipitation 2000 1000 Resource and Environmental Science types to type k occurred at that location and 0 means no conversion; x is
Temperature 2010 and Data Center of the Chinese the vector of drivers; I(hn(x) = d) is the indicator function of the set of
GDP Academy of Sciences decision trees; hn(x) is the predicted type of the nth decision tree of
Population (http://www.resdc.cn)
vector x; and M is the total number of decision trees.
Density
NDVI CA model influences LULC competition through an adaptive factor to
achieve the required amount of any type, while the combination of
Road network 2020 1000 OSM (https://www.openstreetmap.
multi-type random patch seeds and a descending threshold allows for
Railway org) the temporal-spatial dynamic simulation of the automatic generation of
network LULC patches. The CA model equation is as follows(Sang et al., 2011):
River system
S(t+1) = f (St , N) (4)
Note: DEM refers to Digital Elevation Model, GDP refers to Gross Domestic
Product and NDVI refers to Normalized Difference Vegetation Index.
where St and S(t+1) represent the state of LULC cell at moments t and t +
1, respectively; N represents the neighborhood of the cell; and f repre­
element; pij in the matrix represents the probability or absolute area of sents LULC conversion rule.
transfer from type i to type j.
2.3.3. Carbon storage estimation with the InVEST model
2.3.2. LULC simulation with PLUS model Table 1 contains carbon density of aboveground, belowground, soil
We used the Land Expansion Analysis Strategy (LEAS) module in the organic, and dead organic biomass for different LULC types, which were
PLUS model to calculate the development probability of various LULC used for calculation, and the equation is as follows(Clerici et al., 2019;
types, which was combined 10 factors. Then, future LULC types were Lai et al., 2016):
simulated based on CA-Markov model.

3
H. Zheng and H. Zheng
∑
n during the two periods was attributed to the accelerating rapid devel­
C= Ai *(Cai + Cbi + Csi + Cdi )
i=1
where C represents total carbon storage; i represents LULC type; n
represents the number of LULC types; Ai represents the area of LULC type
i; and Cai, Cbi, Csi, and Cdi represent the carbon density of the above­
ground, belowground, soil organic, and dead organic biomass of LULC
type i, respectively.
Spatial auto-correlation captures the possibility that the values of
spatial variable at nearby locations are similar(Li et al., 2016). In this
study, the global Moran’s I index was used to reflect cluster character­
istics of carbon storage(Bosso et al., 2022; Liu et al., 2022b). Values of
Moran’s I range from − 1 to 1 after variance normalization and repre­
sents different meanings of spatial correlation(Li et al., 2022c).
i. Moran’s I >0, indicates a positive spatial correlation and perfect
clustering of similar values.
ii. Moran’s I = 0, indicates the space is no autocorrelation (perfect
randomness).
iii. Moran’s I <0, indicates a negative spatial correlation and clus­
tering of dissimilar values.
3. Results
3.1. Dynamic characteristics of LULC and carbon storage
3.1.1. Dynamic characteristics of LULC
As shown in Table 3, cropland was the dominant LULC type in the
coastal area of Shandong Province, with a high fraction of 77.31%
(2000), 72.71% (2010) and 67.90% (2020) respectively. Correspond­
ingly, forest and grassland exhibited relatively small fraction ranged
from 6.21% to 6.43%, and were major concentrated in the Jiaodong Hill,
Yi Mountain, Lu Mountain and Wulian Mountain (Fig. 2). Wetland and
water ranged accounted for about 8% to 10.33%, and were mainly
located in the Yellow River Delta and the south of Laizhou Bay. The area
of wetland continued to increase under the influence of Yellow River
Delta Ecological Reserve. In addition, the proportion of built-up land
increased from 8.22% in 2000 to 15.88% in 2020, concentrated in the
central urban areas of municipalities, which reflected the rapid devel­
opment of the city economy.
From 2000 to 2020, the total conversion area of LULC in the coastal
area of Shandong Province reached at 21,277.52 km2. The area of
conversion in different periods was 13,860.96 km2 (2000–2010) and
14,321.67 km2 (2010–2020) respectively (Fig. 3). At different periods,
the most dominant type of conversion was cropland to built-up land,
which was mainly influenced by the growth of population and the
development of regional economy. Statistics showed that GDP of the
study area increased from 424.9 billion in 2000 to 3,660.2 billion in
2020, with an increase of 8.61 times, and the population also increased
by 16% (Data from: Shandong statistical yearbook, http://tjj.shandong.
gov.cn/col/col6279/index.html), which led to the expansion of built-
up land. In addition, some cropland has been converted to water as a
result of environmental protection policies. From 2000 to 2010,
3,511.64 km2 and 2,432.69 km2 of cropland were transferred to built-up
land and water, respectively. From 2010 to 2020, the conversion of
cropland to built-up land increased to 6,131.08 km2, but only 764.96
km2of cropland was converted to water. Such significant variation
Table 3
Changes of LULC in the coastal area of Shandong Province from 2000 to 2020.
Year Cropland Forest Grassland
km2 % km2 % km2 % km2
2000 84188.93 77.31 4578.70 4.20 2424.74 2.23
2010 79172.08 72.71 2413.56 2.22 4353.42 4.00
2020 73944.19 67.90 2788.56 2.56 4092.24 3.76
Ecological Indicators 153 (2023) 110474
(5) opment of three town clusters of Qingdao-Weifang-Rizhao, Yantai-
Weihai and Dongying-Binzhou after the approval of the development
plan of Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone in 2011. In contrast,
the area of cropland converted to water in 2000–2010 was larger than
that in 2010–2020, which was due to the establishment of the Yellow
River Delta National Nature Reserve in 1992, when the ecological
restoration area of water and wetland was more obvious, while the
conversion trend in the latter period slowed down.
3.1.2. Carbon storage dynamic characteristics
Carbon storage in the coastal area of Shandong Province was
743.18×106Mg, 711.65×106Mg and 695.22×106Mg in 2000, 2010 and
2020 respectively, showing a decreasing trend and a cumulative loss of
47.96×106Mg. Through the value of Moran’I index in 2000 (0.3069),
2010 (0.3272) and 2020 (0.3229) with a p-value of 0, we found that
carbon storage was obviously clustering in spatial distribution. The
areas with high-density carbon storage were mainly distributed in the
Jiaodong Hill, Lu Mountain, Yi Mountain, Wulian Mountain and the
Yellow River Delta, with the highest value of 197.44 Mg/hm2. The areas
with low-density carbon storage were mainly located in the north of
Binzhou City, the south of Laizhou Bay and city center, with the lowest
value of 0 Mg/hm2 (Fig. 4). In general, the spatial distribution pattern of
carbon storage remained relatively stable during the past 20 years.
We divided the change value of carbon storage into three categories:
increase (3.55 ~ 17.77), decrease (− 3.55 ~ − 17.77) and basically stable
(− 3.55 ~ 3.55) to further analyze the local variation characteristics. As
shown in Fig. 5, changes of carbon storage in most areas were concen­
trated in − 3.55 to 3.55, and the LULC type corresponded to cropland.
The category of increasing was only 4.68%, which concentrated in the
mountains, hills and wetlands at the mouth of the Yellow River, while
the category of decreasing accounted for 12.80%, locating in the built-
up land of the city center and the water of the Yellow River Delta.
During the different periods, the changes of value were similar, with
about 45% of the regions was basically stable, 35% of the regions
decreasing and 15% of the regions increasing. Whereas, differences were
reflected in spatial distribution. Significant changes from 2000 to 2010
were concentrated in the Yellow River Delta, south part of Laizhou Bay
and Qingdao City. While the spatial distribution was fragmented from
2010 to 2020, which was scattered in the Yellow River Delta, south of
Laizhou Bay and urban centers.
3.2. Response of carbon storage to LULC changes
Both the area and carbon density of different LULC types would
affect regional carbon storage. For example, the carbon density of
cropland in the coastal area of Shandong Province was 72.15 Mg/hm2,
with a large area, which resulted its carbon storage accounted for more
than 75% of the total regional carbon storage. Wetland has the highest
carbon density of 197.42 Mg/hm2, the area increased by 8345.48 km2
from 2000 to 2020, which led to a significant increase in carbon storage
of 17.34×106Mg. The conversion between different LULC types in the
coastal area of Shandong Province was complex, and the overall carbon
storage change was the result of a combination of carbon storage
changes along multiple pathways. Cropland, forest and built-up land
where the major types affected carbon storage, however, there were
certain differences in the influence processes. Most importantly, wetland
Wetland Water Built-up land Bare land
% km2 % km2 % km2 %
1365.26 1.25 7346.86 6.75 8945.51 8.22 41.37 0.04
1706.84 1.57 9535.72 8.76 11518.05 10.58 184.34 0.17
2077.93 1.91 8625.69 7.92 17290.98 15.88 74.48 0.07
4
H. Zheng and H. Zheng Ecological Indicators 153 (2023) 110474

Fig. 2. Distribution of LULC in the coastal area of Shandong Province from 2000 to 2020 (This figure is created using ArcGIS 10.2 http://gisserver.domain.com:6
080/arcgis/services).

Fig. 3. Transfer matrix of LULC changes in the coastal area of Shandong Province from 2000 to 2020 (This figure is created using Origin2022 https://www.originlab
.com/2022).

would not be ignored for their impact on carbon storage.
From 2000 to 2020, the loss of carbon storage in the coastal area of
Shandong Province due to the conversion of cropland to other types was
66.29×106Mg (Table 4). The conversion of cropland to built-up land
was the largest, at 8767.26 km2, resulting in a loss of carbon storage of
45.04×106Mg. The average rate of cropland to built-up land accelerated
significantly after 2010, which led to the average rate of carbon storage
loss was more than 1.75 times of the previous period. Conversion of
cropland to water has resulted in a loss of carbon storage of
21.14×106Mg. In addition, the carbon loss caused by the conversion of
cropland to bare land was only 0.11×106Mg, which was due to its
conversion area being only 20.46 km2. In contrast, the conversion of
cropland to forest, grassland and wetland led to an increase in carbon
storage of 17.26×106Mg with the help of the national ecological policy.
Of these, conversion of cropland to wetland triggered the largest in­
crease (12.10×106Mg) due to the high carbon density of wetland.
Although the implementation of ecological policy has increased the
regional carbon storage, it was far from enough to compensate for the

5
H. Zheng and H. Zheng Ecological Indicators 153 (2023) 110474

Fig. 4. Distribution of carbon storage in the coastal area of Shandong Province from 2000 to 2020 (This figure is created using ArcGIS 10.2 http://gisserver.domain.
com:6080/arcgis/services).

Fig. 5. Distribution of carbon storage changes in the coastal area of Shandong Province during different periods (This figure is created using ArcGIS 10.2 http://giss
erver.domain.com:6080/arcgis/services).

Table 4
Changes in carbon storage from the conversion of cropland to other types.
LULC Type 2000–2010 2010–2020 2000–2020

Area(km2) Carbon(×106Mg) Area(km2) Carbon(×106Mg) Area(km2) Carbon(×106Mg)

Cropland → Forest 72.12 0.47 461.36 2.98 385.73 2.49

Cropland → Grassland 907.72 3.77 611.85 2.54 642.07 2.66
Cropland → Wetland 914.80 11.46 108.22 1.36 966.29 12.10
Cropland → Water 2432.69 − 17.55 764.96 − 5.52 2930.44 − 21.14
Cropland → Built-up land 3511.64 − 18.04 6131.08 − 31.50 8767.26 − 45.04
Cropland → Bare land 134.83 − 0.73 19.89 − 0.11 20.46 − 0.11

6
H. Zheng and H. Zheng
loss of carbon storage caused by the conversion of cropland into built-up
land.
The conversion of forest to other land types from 2000 to 2020
resulted in a loss of carbon storage of 9.85×106Mg (Table 5). Among
them, the conversion of forest to cropland caused the largest carbon loss
of 5.10×106Mg. Although the conversion area of forest to grassland was
twice as many as that of forest to cropland, the carbon loss induced by
the former conversion was only 3.42×106Mg because of the carbon
density of grassland was higher than cropland. In addition, the con­
version of forest to wetland may increase regional carbon storage,
however, the conversion area was almost 0 due to the large difference in
properties between the two land types, which led to the increase of
carbon storage was also 0. In general, forest has a high carbon seques­
tration capacity, and we can ensure the dynamic balance of regional
carbon storage by maintaining the stability of its area.
From 2000 to 2020, the decreasing carbon storage in the coastal area
of Shandong Province caused by the continuous increase of built-up land
was 47.80×106Mg (Table 6). The conversion of cropland to built-up
land caused more than 90% of the carbon loss, and the conversion of
forest, grassland and wetland to built-up land resulted in a reduction of
carbon storage in the range of 0.89–0.98×106Mg. Although the con­
version of water to built-up land increased carbon storage by
1.23×106Mg, it’s just a very minimal impact. As water is of high
ecological value and should generally be more protected, the conversion
suggests that the expansion of built-up land in the study area is not
justified. It was worth noting that, using 2010 as the cut-off year, the rate
of conversion of other LULC types to built-up land increased signifi­
cantly in 2010–2020 compared to the period of 2000–2010, which
resulted in an accelerated rate of carbon storage loss.
3.3. LULC and carbon storage changes under different future scenarios
In order to verify the reliability of PLUS model on the simulation
results of LULC types, this paper obtained the development probability
of each category based on 2000 and 2010 LULC data respectively,
combined with 10 factors of natural and socio-economic. We simulated
the LULC distribution map in 2010 and 2020 through CA-Markov model,
and comparing with actual LULC distribution pattern in 2010 and 2020
separately. The accuracy validation values were 0.8696 and 0.8347, the
Kappa coefficients were 0.7102 and 0.6303, and the FOMs were 0.2098
and 0.1371, which indicated the PLUS model could be used to simulate
future LULC types in the study area.
We constructed LULC types in 2030 under the natural trend scenario
(NT), the built-up land priority scenario (BP) and the ecological priority
scenario (EP). Among them, NT assumed the future LULC conversion
would continue the change trend of previous period (2000–2020). BP
supposed the economic development would accelerate, and the con­
version probability of cropland, forest, grassland and bare land to built-
up land was increased by 20%, while the conversion probability of built-
up land to other land types was reduced by 20%. The EP, which was
combined with “Dual Carbon” goals proposed in 2020. Ecological pro­
tection was given an important position and the conversion of forest,
grassland, wetland to other land types was limited. Specifically, the
conversion probability of cropland, forest and grassland to built-up land
Table 5
Changes in carbon storage from the conversion of forest to other types.
LULC Type 2000–2010
2 6
Area(km ) Carbon(×10 Mg)
Forest → Cropland 880.88 − 5.69
Forest → Grassland 1412.89 − 3.26
Forest → Wetland 0.11 0.00
Forest → Water 11.11 − 0.15
Forest → Built-up land 43.84 − 0.51
Forest → Bare land 9.30 − 0.11
Ecological Indicators 153 (2023) 110474
was reduced by 20%, and the conversion probability of wetland and
water to built-up land was reduced by 30%(Li et al., 2022a).
As shown in Table 7, the area of built-up land has expanded rapidly
to over 20,000km2under three scenarios by 2030, while the area of
cropland decreased in the same scenarios. In particular, the largest
reduction of cropland was observed in BP, followed by NT, and the
smallest reduction was in EP. Affected by the change of LULC types, the
carbon storage was 674.34×106Mg (NT), 667.76×106Mg (BP) and
680.98×106Mg (EP), which was lower than that in 2020. It indicated
that carbon emissions in the coastal area of Shandong Province were still
increasing under different scenarios.
Although the changing values of LULC types and carbon storage in
three scenarios were different, the spatial distribution pattern was
relatively stable. During the simulated scenarios, the existing built-up
land was gradually expanding outward, with the same as the core and
expansion areas of Qingdao metropolitan area, Yantai-Weihai metro­
politan area and Dongying-Binzhou metropolitan area to form a more
stable development area. In addition, the distribution of cropland was
wide, while forest and grassland were concentrated in the Jiaodong Hill,
Lu Mountain, Yi Mountain and Wulian Mountain. Moreover, wetland in
the Yellow River Delta gradually expanded (Fig. 6). Corresponding to
the spatial distribution pattern of LULC types, the high-value areas of
carbon storage were distributed in the mountainous and hilly areas and
the wetland in the Yellow River Delta, while the low-value areas were
concentrated in the central city of each metropolitan and the water in
the Yellow River Delta. What’s more, the medium-value areas of carbon
storage corresponded to the spatial distribution pattern of cropland
(Fig. 7).
Generally, compared with the three scenarios, carbon storage under
EP was the largest, while the negative ecological impact of economic
development dominated by the expansion of built-up land was
increasing(Carpio et al., 2021). In order to accomplish the “Dual Car­
bon” goals, administrators need to adopt eco-development measures.
4. Discussion
4.1. Evolution mechanism of carbon storage
The LULC system is one of the highly complex social-ecological
systems whose development and evolution are largely regulated by
human activities, while their combined effects simultaneously act on
human society(Kalantari et al., 2019). This paper analyzed the rela­
tionship between land use and carbon storage in the coastal area of
Shandong Province. The results showed that the variation of carbon
storage reflected the conversion of LULC. Specifically, there are three
types of variations in carbon storage: stable, increasing and decreasing.
The carbon storage of cropland remained stable because the carbon
density and area changed inconspicuously. Regions where carbon stor­
age has increased, the LULC type has changed from cropland to forest or
grassland. Furthermore, the conversion of cropland and water to
wetland at the mouth of the Yellow River also increased regional carbon
storage. Finally, there were two types of LULC conversion with
decreasing carbon storage: the conversion of cropland to water and the
expansion of built-up land in urban centers.
2010–2020 2000–2020
2 6
Area(km ) Carbon(×10 Mg) Area(km2) Carbon(×106Mg)
76.74 − 0.50 789.64 − 5.10
234.35 − 0.54 1483.47 − 3.42
0.43 0.00 0.05 0.00
5.89 − 0.08 17.98 − 0.25
17.10 − 0.20 84.51 − 0.98
6.38 − 0.08 9.11 − 0.11
7
H. Zheng and H. Zheng Ecological Indicators 153 (2023) 110474

Table 6
Changes in carbon storage from the conversion of other types to built-up land.
LULC Type 2000–2010 2010–2020 2000–2020
2 6 2 6
Area(km ) Carbon(×10 Mg) Area(km ) Carbon(×10 Mg) Area(km2) Carbon(×106Mg)

Cropland → Built-up land 3511.64 − 18.04 6131.08 − 31.50 8767.26 − 45.04

Forest → Built-up land 43.84 − 0.51 17.10 − 0.20 84.51 − 0.98
Grassland → Built-up land 43.41 − 0.40 130.59 − 1.21 96.00 − 0.89
Wetland → Built-up land 21.12 − 0.37 31.79 − 0.56 50.69 − 0.90
Water → Built-up land 157.12 0.33 474.85 0.99 594.08 1.23
Bare land → Built-up land 0.02 0.00 30.72 0.01 0.96 0.00

Table 7
Future LULC and carbon storage under three different scenarios.
Type 2030NT 2030BP 2030EP

Area(km2) Carbon(×106Mg) Area(km2) Carbon(×106Mg) Area(km2) Carbon(×106Mg)

Cropland 69589.16 502.09 68182.48 491.94 70729.18 510.31

Forest 2864.62 39.16 2941.14 40.21 2895.35 39.58
Grassland 3917.15 44.51 3876.17 44.05 3946.64 44.85
Wetland 2159.35 42.63 2152.67 42.50 2179.03 43.02
Water 8239.91 0 8120.23 0 8337.06 0
Built-up land 22062.97 45.85 23561.41 48.96 20745.20 43.11
Bare land 60.92 0.11 59.97 0.11 61.61 0.11

Note: NT refers to the natural trend scenario, BP refers to the built-up land priority scenario and EP refers to the ecological priority scenario.

Fig. 6. Distribution of LULC in the coastal area of Shandong Province under different future development scenarios (This figure is created using ArcGIS 10.2
http://gisserver.domain.com:6080/arcgis/services). Note: the meanings of NT, BP and EP are the same as in Table 7.

In general, the interconversion of LULC types caused changes in the
soil carbon sink and vegetation carbon sink of the ecosystem, which led
to changes in the total regional carbon storage(Kong et al., 2019; Zhou
and Shi, 2006). The specific change process was that the increase of
LULC type with high-density carbon and the decrease of LULC type with
low-density carbon improved the regional carbon storage(Tao et al.,
2015; Zhu et al., 2021), such as the conversion of cropland, grassland
and water to wetland could improve carbon storage. And our study
showed that the area of wetland increased from 1365.26 km2 to
2077.93 km2 during the past 20 years, which led to an increase of carbon
storage by 24.53×106Mg. However, the increase of LULC type with low-
density carbon and the decrease of LULC type with high-density carbon
reduced the regional carbon storage(Tao et al., 2015; Zhu et al., 2021),
which was typical of the decline of cropland and the expansion of built-
up land. In the coastal area of Shandong Province, while the expansion
of built-up land has been closely linked to economic and social devel­
opment, it has brought with the negative impact of reduced carbon
storage. This is consistent with the findings of other scholars. Li et al
(2020) takes Wuhan City as an example, the study showed that urban
expansion led to a decrease of 2.62 Tg of carbon storage in Wuhan from
2000 to 2015(Li et al., 2020). Xiang et al (2022) similarly found that the
encroachment of cropland by built-up land from 2000 to 2020 was the
main reason for the decrease in carbon storage in Chongqing (–5.78 Tg)
(Xiang et al., 2022). Although cropland was the main land type and an

8
H. Zheng and H. Zheng
Fig. 7. Distribution of carbon storage in the coastal area of Shandong Province under different future scenarios (This figure is created using ArcGIS 10.2 http://giss
erver.domain.com:6080/arcgis/services). Note: the meanings of NT, BP and EP are the same as in Table 7.
important carbon pool in the coastal area of Shandong Province, it was
encroached by built-up land with a high rate(Liu and Wang, 2021),
which triggered carbon depletion. This is because the massive
encroachment of cropland by built-up land and the problems of urban­
ization process have led to the decline of regional ecological carbon
storage service. Similar conclusions are reflected in the research of Sadat
et al (2020), which found that urbanization and the growth of built-up
land had a significant effect on reducing carbon storage in Qaem
Shahr County, Iran(Sadat et al., 2020). Given the close relationship
between LULC and carbon storage, the latter needs to be involved as an
important factor in the process of coupled human-land development to
achieve the optimal trade-off(Hobbs et al., 2016).
4.2. Optimization strategies
Future LULC and carbon storage benefits vary significantly between
scenarios in the same region, and the same scenario may have very
different carbon storage capacities in different regions due to differences
in current conditions. Carbon storage in the coastal area of Shandong
Province under the EP was higher than the other two scenarios, but
lower than that in 2020, which illustrated the EP pattern was conducive
to regional low-carbon development. Therefore, in order to achieve the
“Dual Carbon” goals, governments could take measures from three as­
pects of cropland utilization, built-up land development and wetland
protection based on our study.
First of all, cropland was the dominant land type in the coastal area
of Shandong Province, which need to be planned reasonably in the
future. Studies have shown that forest has a powerful carbon sink
function, and the same as cropland(Armenteras et al., 2019; Bullock and
Woodcock, 2021; Sasaki et al., 2021). On the one hand, crops in crop­
land can absorb carbon by their own growth, and on the other hand,
farmland soil could sequester carbon and return straw to the field, thus
increase the soil carbon storage(Wu et al., 2022). Based on the trans­
formation principle, Jiang et al (2017) found that the enhanced pro­
tection of cropland helped slow down the decline in carbon storage and
density in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration(Jiang
et al., 2017). Therefore, to achieve the effect of carbon sequestration on
cropland, it is necessary to ensure the area of cropland and prohibit the
9
Ecological Indicators 153 (2023) 110474
occupation irrationally. Furthermore, the carbon sink function of crop­
land should also be improved through increasing crop yield (such as
cultivating corn)(She et al., 2016) and increasing soil carbon by
applying organic fertilizers.
Secondly, based on the Development of Shandong Peninsula Urban
Agglomeration planning (2021–2035), the development of Qingdao
metropolitan area, Yantai-Weihai metropolitan area and Dongying-
Binzhou metropolitan area will lead to a high-speed expansion of
built-up land. Therefore, it is necessary to plan and optimize it.
Compared with the construction industry, high-tech industries and
intelligence-intensive industries occupy smaller areas of cropland, forest
or grassland(Liu et al., 2022c). And the development of technology-
oriented industries will optimize the regional economic development
pattern. Moreover, administrators could also enhance the complexity of
LULC functions to increase carbon storage of built-up land, such as
building productive cities(Ma et al., 2021; Song et al., 2021).
At last, our findings showed that the wetland was beneficial to
enhance carbon storage. Therefore, we can play the role of wetland by
increasing wetland area, optimizing wetland vegetation and establishing
wetland ecological index evaluation system in the future.
4.3. Limitations and prospects
The present study complements and refines the understanding of the
correlation between LULC and carbon storage and the results of simu­
lation scenarios can provide theoretical references for regional devel­
opment planning and land use planning. However, there are still some
shortcomings, for example, the data of carbon density was derived from
previous research, which was not as accurate as those obtained from
field surveys. Therefore, it’s necessary to obtain multi-year dynamic
carbon density data through continuous monitoring or field investiga­
tion for future research. In addition, the model of CA-Markov can’t
quantify the relevant planning and policy measures, which will affect
the results of LULC simulation. Because the regional land use patterns
are influenced by local policies(Li et al., 2020), it is necessary to opti­
mize the LULC simulation model to integrate qualitative and quantita­
tive factors. What’s more, although we have proposed recommendations
for regional low-carbon development from three aspects, the effects of
H. Zheng and H. Zheng
related measures need to be further explored in future studies. At last,
ecosystem services contain provisioning, regulating and cultural ser­
vices(He et al., 2021), while we only analyzed the carbon sequestration
of regulating service. Therefore, exploring the ecosystem service char­
acteristics of comprehensive provisioning services (e.g. water produc­
tion, food production), regulating services (e.g. carbon sequestration)
and cultural services (e.g. local recreation) is a future research direction.
5. Conclusions
This paper analyzed the relationship between LULC and carbon
storage in the coastal area of Shandong Province from 2000 to 2020
based on the InVEST and PLUS model. On this basis, we simulated the
variation of carbon storage through the change of LULC types under
three scenarios in 2030 and put forward some suggestions for regional
development. The main conclusions are as follows.
(1) Cropland was the dominant land type in the coastal area of
Shandong Province, which was decreased by 9.41% over the past
20 years, while the area of built-up land increased by 7.66%, and
the variations of other land types were inconspicuous.
(2) Affected by the interconversion of different LULC types, the
carbon storage in the study area lost 47.96×106Mg, which was
due to the expansion of built-up land and the decline of cropland
and forest. In terms of its spatial distribution, carbon storage was
clustering affected by the LULC types. Specifically, the areas with
high carbon storage were located in the Jiaodong Hill, Lu
Mountain, Yi Mountain and Wulian Mountain, whose main land
types were grassland and forest. In addition, with the imple­
mentation of ecological protection measures, wetland located in
the Yellow River Delta also stores large amounts of carbon. While
the areas with low carbon storage were widely distributed in
built-up land of urban centers.
(3) In 2030, the value of carbon storage under different simulated
scenarios (NT, BP, EP) was lower than those in 2020. In partic­
ular, regional carbon storage could be increased by 6.64×106Mg
under the EP.
Overall speaking, the influence mechanism of LULC and carbon
storage is reflected through the change of area and carbon density. With
the context of the “Dual Carbon” goals, EP is the most suitable path for
the future planning in the coastal area of Shandong Province. Therefore,
it’s effective to maintain the area of cropland and enhance the carbon
sequestration capacity of crops. Moreover, the government needs to
transform economic development mode and appropriately control the
expansion of built-up land and strengthen the intensive use of built-up
land in the core area to reduce the impact of urban expansion on the
carbon balance. At the same time, as an important ecological resource,
the wetland should be strengthened in the future to enhance their car­
bon storage capacity. All in all, carbon emission and carbon storage are
important elements to achieve the “Dual Carbon” goals, which should be
combined in future research.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Huiling Zheng: Conceptualization, Methodology, Software, Writing
– original draft, Visualization. Huifeng Zheng: Investigation, Data
curation, Writing – review & editing.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
10
Ecological Indicators 153 (2023) 110474
Data availability
Data will be made available on request.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank editor-in-chief, editor and anony­
mous reviewers for their valuable reviews.
Additional information
LULC raster datasets (30 m*30 m) in 2000, 2010 and 2020 were
derived from GlobalLand (www.globallandcover.com). The data of DEM
was derived from the Geospatial Data Cloud (http://www.gscloud.cn).
The temperature, precipitation, GDP, population density and NDVI were
derived from the Resource and Environmental Science and Data Center
of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (http://www.resdc.cn). The road
network, railway network and river system were come from Open­
StreetMap (https://www.openstreetmap. org).
References
Armenteras, D., Murcia, U., Gonzalez, T.M., Baron, O.J., Arias, J.E., 2019. Scenarios of
land use and land cover change for NW Amazonia: Impact on forest intactness. Glob.
Ecol. Conserv. 17, 13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00567.
Bellard, C., Marino, C., Courchamp, F., 2022. Ranking threats to biodiversity and why it
doesn’t matter. Nature Communications 13. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-
30339-y.
Bonini, I., Marimon, B.H., Matricardi, E., Phillips, O., Petter, F., Oliveira, B., Marimon, B.
S., 2018. Collapse of ecosystem carbon stocks due to forest conversion to soybean
plantations at the Amazon-Cerrado transition. For. Ecol. Manage. 414, 64–73.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2018.01.038.
Bosso, L., Smeraldo, S., Russo, D., Chiusano, M.L., Bertorelle, G., Johannesson, K.,
Butlin, R.K., Danovaro, R., Raffini, F., 2022. The rise and fall of an alien: why the
successful colonizer Littorina saxatilis failed to invade the Mediterranean Sea.
Biological Invasions 24, 3169–3187. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-022-02838-y.
Bullock, E.L., Woodcock, C.E., 2021. Carbon loss and removal due to forest disturbance
and regeneration in the Amazon. Sci. Total Environ. 764, 10. https://doi.org/
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142839.
Cao, M.K., Prince, S.D., Li, K.R., Tao, B., Small, J., Shao, X.M., 2003. Response of
terrestrial carbon uptake to climate interannual variability in China. Glob. Change
Biol. 9, 536–546. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00617.x.
Carpio, A., Ponce-Lopez, R., Lozano-Garcia, D.F., 2021. Urban form, land use, and cover
change and their impact on carbon emissions in the Monterrey Metropolitan area.
Mexico. Urban CLim. 39, 17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100947.
Chuai, X.W., Huang, X.J., Lai, L., Wang, W.J., Peng, J.W., Zhao, R.Q., 2013. Land use
structure optimization based on carbon storage in several regional terrestrial
ecosystems across China. Environ. Sci. Policy 25, 50–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
envsci.2012.05.005.
Clerici, N., Cote-Navarro, F., Escobedo, F.J., Rubiano, K., Villegas, J.C., 2019. Spatio-
temporal and cumulative effects of land use-land cover and climate change on two
ecosystem services in the Colombian Andes. Sci. Total Environ. 685, 1181–1192.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.275.
Cong, W.C., Sun, X.Y., 2018. A study on carbon sequestration capacity based on GIS and
InVEST model in Rizhao City. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation 38, 200–205.
Cruz, J.D., Blanco, C.J.C., de Oliveira, J.F., 2022. Modeling of land use and land cover
change dynamics for future projection of the Amazon number curve. Sci. Total
Environ. 811, 13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152348.
Dai, J.R., Yu, C., Zhang, J., Ning, Z.G., Wang, Z.H., Cheng, X., 2014. Analysis on soil
organic carbon storage and the potential for carbon sequestration in the Blue
Economic Zone of Shandong Peninsula. Journal of Jilin University. Earth Science
Edition 44, 1659–1668.
Djomo, A.N., Knohl, A., Gravenhorst, G., 2011. Estimations of total ecosystem carbon
pools distribution and carbon biomass current annual increment of a moist tropical
forest. For. Ecol. Manage. 261, 1448–1459. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
foreco.2011.01.031.
Fraissinet, M., Ancillotto, L., Migliozzi, A., Capasso, S., Bosso, L., Chamberlain, D.E.,
Russo, D., 2023. Responses of avian assemblages to spatiotemporal landscape
dynamics in urban ecosystems. Landsc. Ecol. 38, 293–305. https://doi.org/10.1007/
s10980-022-01550-5.
González-González, A., Villegas, J.C., Clerici, N., Salazar, J.F., 2021. Spatial-temporal
dynamics of deforestation and its drivers indicate need for locally-adapted
environmental governance in Colombia. Ecol. Indic. 126, 12. https://doi.org/
10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107695.
Groshans, G.R., Mikhailova, E.A., Post, C.J., Schlautman, M.A., 2018. Accounting for soil
inorganic carbon in the ecosystem services framework for United Nations sustainable
development goals. Geoderma 324, 37–46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
geoderma.2018.02.009.
H. Zheng and H. Zheng
Hairiah, K., van Noordwijk, M., Sari, R.R., Saputra, D.D., Widianto, Suprayogo, D.,
Kurniawan, S., Prayogo, C., Gusli, S., 2020. Soil carbon stocks in Indonesian (agro)
forest transitions: Compaction conceals lower carbon concentrations in standard
accounting. Agriculture Ecosystems Environmental Research Letters 294.
He, Y., Kuang, Y., Zhao, Y., Ruan, Z., 2021. Spatial correlation between ecosystem
services and human disturbances: A case study of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao
Greater Bay Area. China. Remote Sens. 13 (6), 1174.
He, Q.S., Zeng, C., Xie, P., Liu, Y.L., Zhang, M.K., 2018. An assessment of forest biomass
carbon storage and ecological compensation based on surface area: A case study of
Hubei Province. China. Ecol. Indic. 90, 392–400. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
ecolind.2018.03.030.
Hobbs, T.J., Neumann, C.R., Meyer, W.S., Moon, T., Bryan, B.A., 2016. Models of
reforestation productivity and carbon sequestration for land use and climate change
adaptation planning in South Australia. J. Environ. Manage. 181, 279–288. https://
doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.06.049.
Hou, X., Xu, X., 2011. Spatial patterns of land use in coastal zones of China in the early
21st century. Geographical Research 30, 1370–1379.
Houghton, R.A., 2012. Carbon emissions and the drivers of deforestation and forest
degradation in the tropics. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain. 4, 597–603. https://doi.
org/10.1016/j.cosust.2012.06.006.
Jiang, W., Deng, Y., Tang, Z., Lei, X., Chen, Z., 2017. Modelling the potential impacts of
urban ecosystem changes on carbon storage under different scenarios by linking the
CLUE-S and the InVEST models. Ecol. Model. 345, 30–40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
ecolmodel.2016.12.002.
Kabuanga, J.M., Kankonda, O.M., Saqalli, M., Maestripieri, N., Bilintoh, T.M., Mweru, J.
P.M., Liama, A.B., Nishuli, R., Mane, L., 2021. Historical changes and future
trajectories of deforestation in the Ituri-Epulu-Aru Landscape (Democratic Republic
of the Congo). Land 10, 24. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10101042.
Kalantari, Z., Ferreira, C.S., Page, J., Goldenberg, R., Olsson, J., Destouni, G., 2019.
Meeting sustainable development challenges in growing cities: Coupled social-
ecological systems modeling of land use and water changes. J. Environ. Manage.
245, 471–480.
Kantzas, E.P., Val Martin, M., Lomas, M.R., Eufrasio, R.M., Renforth, P., Lewis, A.L.,
Taylor, L.L., Mecure, J.-F., Pollitt, H., Vercoulen, P.V., Vakilifard, N., Holden, P.B.,
Edwards, N.R., Koh, L., Pidgeon, N.F., Banwart, S.A., Beerling, D.J., 2022.
Substantial carbon drawdown potential from enhanced rock weathering in the
United Kingdom. Nat. Geosci. 15 (5), 382–389.
Kertész, Á., Nagy, L.A., Balázs, B., 2019. Effect of land use change on ecosystem services
in Lake Balaton Catchment. Land Use Pol. 80, 430–438. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
landusepol.2018.04.005.
Kiat, P.E., Malek, M.A., Shamsuddin, S.M., 2020. Net carbon stocks change in biomass
from wood removal of tropical forests in Sarawak. Malaysia. J. King Saud Univ. Sci.
32, 1096–1099. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jksus.2019.09.012.
Kong, J.Q., Du, Z.Y., Yang, R., Su, Y.Z., 2019. Prediction of land use change and its
influence on carbon stocks in the Middle Reaches of Heihe River. Journal of Desert
Research 39, 87–97.
Lai, L., Huang, X.J., Yang, H., Chuai, X.W., Zhang, M., Zhong, T.Y., Chen, Z.G., Chen, Y.,
Wang, X., Thompson, J.R., 2016. Carbon emissions from land-use change and
management in China between 1990 and 2010. Sci. Adv. 2, 8. https://doi.org/
10.1126/sciadv.1601063.
Landman, W., 2010. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. S. Afr. Geogr. J. 92,
86–87. https://doi.org/10.1080/03736245.2010.480842.
Li, H., 2019. Analysis on the Influence of Land Use/Cover Change on ecosystem Carbon
Storage in the Coastal Area of Shandong Peninsula. Ludong University, Yantai,
Shandong, China.
Li, G., Fang, C., Li, Y., Wang, Z., Sun, S., He, S., Qi, W., Bao, C., Ma, H., Fan, Y., Feng, Y.,
Liu, X., 2022b. Global impacts of future urban expansion on terrestrial vertebrate
diversity. Nature Communications 13. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29324-
2.
Li, C., Gao, B.P., Wu, Y.M., Zheng, K.J., Wu, Y., 2022a. Dynamic simulation of landscape
ecological risk in mountain towns based on PLUS model. Journal of Zhejiang A&F
University 39, 84–94. https://doi.org/10.11833/j.issn.2095-0756.20210237.
Li, H., Huang, K., Fu, Q.Y., Lin, Y.F., Chen, J., Deng, C.R., Tian, X.D., Tang, Q., Song, Q.
C., Wei, Z., 2022c. Airborne black carbon variations during the COVID-19 lockdown
in the Yangtze River Delta megacities suggest actions to curb global warming.
Environ. Chem. Lett. 20, 71–80. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10311-021-01327-3.
Li, L.u., Song, Y., Wei, X., Dong, J., 2020. Exploring the impacts of urban growth on
carbon storage under integrated spatial regulation: A case study of Wuhan. China.
Ecol. Indic. 111, 106064.
Li, K.R., Wang, S.Q., Cao, M.K., 2004. Vegetation and soil carbon storage in China. Sci.
China Ser. D-Earth Sci. 47, 49–57. https://doi.org/10.1360/02yd0029.
Li, W.Y., Zhu, C.M., Wang, H., Xu, B.G., 2016. Multi-scale spatial autocorrelation analysis
of cultivated land quality in Zhejiang province. Transactions of the Chinese Society
of. Agricultural Engineering 32, 235–246. https://doi.org/10.11975/j.issn.1002-
6819.2016.23.033.
Liang, X., Guan, Q.F., Clarke, K.C., Liu, S.S., Wang, B.Y., Yao, Y., 2021a. Understanding
the drivers of sustainable land expansion using a patch-generating land use
simulation (PLUS) model: A case study in Wuhan. China. Comput. Environ. Urban
Syst. 85, 14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2020.101569.
Liang, Y.J., Hashimoto, S., Liu, L.J., 2021b. Integrated assessment of land-use/land-cover
dynamics on carbon storage services in the Loess Plateau of China from 1995 to
2050. Ecol. Indic. 120, 14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106939.
Liu, Y., Tian, J., Zheng, W., Yin, L., 2022b. Spatial and temporal distribution
characteristics of haze and pollution particles in China based on spatial statistics.
Urban CLim. 41, 101031.
11
Ecological Indicators 153 (2023) 110474
Liu, K., Wang, J., 2021. Driving mechanism of land conduct on urban spatial expansion
in China: Empirical analysis based on 273 prefecture-level cities. Resources Science
43, 764–775.
Liu, Q., Yang, D.D., Cao, L., Anderson, B., 2022a. Assessment and Prediction of Carbon
Storage Based on Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics in the Tropics: A Case Study of
Hainan Island. China. Land 11, 24. https://doi.org/10.3390/land11020244.
Liu, Y.Z., Yang, R.J., Sun, M.Y., Zhang, L., Li, X.H., Meng, L.Y., Wang, Y.Z., Liu, Q.,
2022c. Regional sustainable development strategy based on the coordination
between ecology and economy: A case study of Sichuan Province. China. Ecol. Indic.
134, 10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108445.
Ma, W., de Jong, M., de Bruijne, M., Mu, R., 2021. Mix and match: Configuring different
types of policy instruments to develop successful low carbon cities in China. J. Clean
Prod. 282, 125399.
Ma, T.T., Li, X.W., Bai, J.H., Ding, S.Y., Zhou, F.W., Cui, B.S., 2019. Four decades’
dynamics of coastal blue carbon storage driven by land use/land cover
transformation under natural and anthropogenic processes in the Yellow River Delta.
China. Sci. Total Environ. 655, 741–750. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
scitotenv.2018.11.287.
Makkonen, M., Huttunen, S., Primmer, E., Repo, A., Hilden, M., 2015. Policy coherence
in climate change mitigation: An ecosystem service approach to forests as carbon
sinks and bioenergy sources. Forest Policy Econ. 50, 153–162. https://doi.org/
10.1016/j.forpol.2014.09.003.
Nie, X., Lu, B., Chen, Z.P., Yang, Y.W., Chen, S., Chen, Z.H., Wang, H., 2020. Increase or
decrease? Integrating the CLUMondo and InVEST models to assess the impact of the
implementation of the Major Function Oriented Zone planning on carbon storage.
Ecol. Indic. 118, 106708 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106708.
Nurwanda, A., Zain, A., Rustiadi, E., 2016. Analysis of land cover changes and landscape
fragmentation in Batanghari Regency, Jambi Province. Procedia - Social Behavioral
Sciences 227, 87–94.
Pan, Z.Z., He, J.H., Liu, D.F., Wang, J.W., 2020. Predicting the joint effects of future
climate and land use change on ecosystem health in the Middle Reaches of the
Yangtze River Economic Belt. China. Appl. Geogr. 124, 10. https://doi.org/10.1016/
j.apgeog.2020.102293.
Quesada, B., Arneth, A., Robertson, E., de Noblet-Ducoudre, N., 2018. Potential strong
contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the
terrestrial carbon cycle. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 11. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-
9326/aac4c3.
Sadat, M., Zoghi, M., Malekmohammadi, B., 2020. Spatiotemporal modeling of urban
land cover changes and carbon storage ecosystem services: case study in Qaem Shahr
County. Iran. Environment Development and Sustainability 22, 8135–8158. https://
doi.org/10.1007/s10668-019-00565-4.
Sang, L.L., Zhang, C., Yang, J.Y., Zhu, D.H., Yun, W.J., 2011. Simulation of land use
spatial pattern of towns and villages based on CA-Markov model. Math. Comput.
Model. 54, 938–943. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mcm.2010.11.019.
Sasaki, N., Myint, Y.Y., Abe, I., Venkatappa, M., 2021. Predicting carbon emissions,
emissions reductions, and carbon removal due to deforestation and plantation forests
in Southeast Asia. J. Clean Prod. 312, 12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
jclepro.2021.127728.
She, W., Huang, H., Guan, C.Y., Chen, F., Chen, G.H., 2016. The current carbon sink
structure of China’s staple crop production and its optimization approach. Strategic
Study of CAE 18, 114–122. https://doi.org/10.15302/J-CESS-2016014.
Song, Q.J., Liu, T.L., Qi, Y., 2021. Policy innovation in low carbon pilot cities: lessons
learned from China. Urban CLim. 39, 19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
uclim.2021.100936.
Stankovic, M., Ambo-Rappe, R., Carly, F., Dangan-Galon, F., Fortes, M.D., Hossain, M.S.,
Kiswara, W., Luong, C.V., Phan, M.T., Mishra, A.K., Noiraksar, T., Nurdin, N.,
Panyawai, J., Rattanachot, E., Rozaimi, M., Htun, U.S., Prathep, A., 2021.
Quantification of blue carbon in seagrass ecosystems of Southeast Asia and their
potential for climate change mitigation. Sci. Total Environ. 783, 10. https://doi.org/
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146858.
Tan, Z., Guan, Q.Y., Lin, J.K., Yang, L.Q., Luo, H.P., Ma, Y.R., Tian, J., Wang, Q.Z.,
Wang, N., 2020. The response and simulation of ecosystem services value to land
use/land cover in an oasis. Northwest China. Ecol. Indic. 118, 10. https://doi.org/
10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106711.
Tang, L.P., Ke, X.L., Zhou, Q.S., Wang, L.Y., Koomen, E., 2020. Projecting future impacts
of cropland reclamation policies on carbon storage. Ecol. Indic. 119, 10. https://doi.
org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106835.
Tang, X.J., Woodcock, C.E., Olofsson, P., Hutyra, L.R., 2021. Spatiotemporal assessment
of land use/land cover change and associated carbon emissions and uptake in the
Mekong River Basin. Remote Sens. Environ. 256, 13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
rse.2021.112336.
Tao, Y., Li, F., Wang, R.S., Zhao, D., 2015. Effects of land use and cover change on
terrestrial carbon stocks in urbanized areas: a study from Changzhou. China. J. Clean
Prod. 103, 651–657. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.07.055.
Thompson, T.M., 2018. Modeling the climate and carbon systems to estimate the social
cost of carbon. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev.-Clim. Chang. 9, 12. https://doi.org/10.1002/
wcc.532.
Tsozué, D., Nghonda, J.P., Tematio, P., Basga, S.D., 2019. Changes in soil properties and
soil organic carbon stocks along an elevation gradient at Mount Bambouto, Central
Africa. Catena 175, 251–262. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2018.12.028.
Wang, S.Q., Huang, Y., 2020. Determinants of soil organic carbon sequestration and its
contribution to ecosystem carbon sinks of planted forests. Glob. Change Biol. 26,
3163–3173. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15036.
Wang, Q.X., Masataka, W., Zhu, O.Y., 2005. Simulation of water and carbon fluxes using
BIOME-BGC model over crops in China. Agric. For. Meteorol. 131, 209–224. https://
doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2005.06.002.
H. Zheng and H. Zheng
Wu, L., Hou, X., 2015. Analysis of land use change in the coastal zone of Circum the
Bohai Sea Region during 2000 to 2010. Marine Sciences 39, 101–110.
Wu, H.Y., Meng, Y., Huang, H.J., Chen, W.K., 2022. Estimation and spatio-temporal
divergence of the low-carbon performance of cropland use in China. Journal of
Natural. Resources 37, 1148–1163. https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20220504.
Xiang, S., Wang, Y., Deng, H., Yang, C., Wang, Z., Gao, M., 2022. Response and multi-
scenario prediction of carbon storage to land use/cover change in the main urban
area of Chongqing. China. Ecol. Indic. 142, 109205.
Zhang, W.J., Sun, X.Y., Shan, R.F., 2019. Effects of land use change on habitat quality
based on InVEST model in Shandong Peninsula. Environmental Ecology 1, 15-23.
CNKI:SUN:HJSX.0.2019-05-005.
Zhang, M., Huang, X.J., Chuai, X.W., Yang, H., Lai, L., Tan, J.Z., 2015. Impact of land use
type conversion on carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems of China: A spatial-
temporal perspective. Sci Rep 5, 13. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep10233.
Zhang, C.H., Ju, W.M., Wang, D.J., Wang, X.Q., Wang, X., 2018. Biomass carbon stocks
and economic value dynamics of forests in Shandong Province from 2004 to 2013.
Acta Ecologica Sinica 38, 1739–1749.
Zhang, Q.F., Justice, C.O., Desanker, P.V., 2002. Impacts of simulated shifting cultivation
on deforestation and the carbon stocks of the forests of central Africa. Agriculture,
12
Ecological Indicators 153 (2023) 110474
Ecosystems Environmental 90, 203–209. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-8809(01)
00332-2.
Zhao, Z.Q., Sharifi, A., Dong, X., Shen, L.D., He, B.J., 2021. Spatial variability and
temporal heterogeneity of surface urban heat island patterns and the suitability of
local climate zones for land surface temperature characterization. Remote Sens. 13,
30. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13214338.
Zhou, T., Shi, P.J., 2006. Indirect impacts of land use change on soil organic carbon
change in China. Advance in Earth Sciences 21, 138–143.
Zhou, J.J., Zhao, Y.R., Huang, P., Zhao, X., Feng, W., Li, Q.Q., Xue, D.X., Dou, J., Shi, W.,
Wei, W., Zhu, G.F., Liu, C.F., 2020. Impacts of ecological restoration projects on the
ecosystem carbon storage of inland river basin in arid area. China. Ecol. Indic. 118,
13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106803.
Zhu, L.Y., Hu, K., Sun, S., Liu, Y.H., Liang, J.X., 2022. Research on the spatiotemporal
variation of carbon storage in the coastal zone of Liaoning Province based on InVEST
model. Geoscience 36, 96–104.
Zhu, G.F., Qiu, D.D., Zhang, Z.X., Sang, L.Y., Liu, Y.W., Wang, L., Zhao, K.L., Ma, H.Y.,
Xu, Y.X., Wan, Q.Z., 2021. Land-use changes lead to a decrease in carbon storage in
arid region. China. Ecol. Indic. 127, 10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
ecolind.2021.107770.