Ecological Indicators 152 (2023) 110374

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Ecological Indicators
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolind

Integrating forest cover change and carbon storage dynamics: Leveraging

Google Earth Engine and InVEST model to inform conservation in
hilly regions
Abdulla - Al Kafy a, Milan Saha b, c, *, Md. Abdul Fattah d, Muhammad Tauhidur Rahman e, Bushra
Monowar Duti f, Zullyadini A. Rahaman g, Arpita Bakshi d, S. Kalaivani h, Sk Nafiz Rahaman i, j,
Golam Shabbir Sattar k
a
Department of Geography & the Environment, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA
b
Department of Urban & Regional Planning, Bangladesh University of Engineering & Technology (BUET), Dhaka, Bangladesh
c
School of Environmental Science and Management, Independent University, Bangladesh
d
Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Khulna University of Engineering and Technology, Khulna, Bangladesh
e
Department of City and Regional Planning, King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals, KFUPM, Box 5053, Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia
f
Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA
g
Department of Geography & Environment, Faculty of Human Sciences, Sultan Idris Education University, Tanjung Malim 35900, Malaysia
h
School of Information Technology and Engineering, Vellore Institute of Technology, Vellore, India
i
Urban and Rural Planning Discipline, Khulna University, Khulna 9208, Bangladesh
j
Department of Geosciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, United States
k
Institute of Environmental Science, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi 6205, Bangladesh

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Forests are vital in combating climate change by storing and sequestrating CO2 from the atmosphere. Measuring
Land cover change the influence of land use/land cover (LULC) changes on the capacity of carbon storage (CS) within forest eco­
Carbon sequestration systems presents a significant challenge. This study employs remote sensing techniques to examine the changes
Forest habitats
in spatiotemporal patterns of CS in the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT), resulting from LULC alterations between
Spatiotemporal analysis
Sustainable development
1996 and 2021. LULC change patterns were identified for six different years utilizing the Google Earth Engine
(GEE). The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model was combined with GEE to
evaluate the changing patterns of CS. The study discovered that the CHT region experienced a loss of 21.65 × 106
Mg of CS, owing to a 21% reduction in vegetation cover (2862.85 km^2) during the study period. The central city
area (Chittagong) accounted for the most significant loss of CS (7.99 × 106 Mg), while the suburban areas of
Khagrachari (0.92 × 106 Mg) and Rangamati (3.53 × 106 Mg) contributed the least. The multiple regression
model revealed that elevation and vegetation characteristics significantly influenced CS. The findings underscore
the importance of developing policies and strategies that mitigate the adverse effects of land cover change on CS,
and advocate for sustainable forest management practices that strike a balance between ecological, social, and
economic concerns.

1. Introduction 2021). Approximately 45% of the organic carbon present in biomass and
soil is stored in forests, while land surfaces have taken in nearly 30% of
Forests are integral to the global carbon cycle, serving as a carbon atmospheric CO2 from 1990 to 2017 (Baul et al., 2021). Tropical forests
sink and capturing 7.6 billion metric tons of CO2 each year (Streiff, are particularly crucial to global carbon sinks, absorbing and storing

Abbreviations: CS, Carbon Storage; LULC, Land use/Land cover; CHT, Chittagong Hill Tracts; EVI, Enhanced Vegetation Index; NDVI, Normalized Difference
Vegetation Index; GEE, Google Earth Engine; InVEST, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs.
* Corresponding author at: Department of Urban & Regional Planning, Bangladesh University of Engineering & Technology (BUET), Dhaka, Bangladesh.
E-mail addresses: abdulla-al.kafy@localpathways.org, abdullaalkafy@utexas.edu (A.A. Kafy), milansaha023@gmail.com (M. Saha), mafattah.kuet@gmail.com
(Md.A. Fattah), mtr@kfupm.edu.sa (M.T. Rahman), bushraduti@gmail.com (B.M. Duti), zully@fsk.upsi.edu.my (Z.A. Rahaman), arpitabakshi36@gmail.com
(A. Bakshi), kalaivanis@vit.ac.in (S. Kalaivani), sknafizrahaman1@gmail.com (S. Nafiz Rahaman), gssattar@yahoo.com (G.S. Sattar).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110374
Received 15 October 2022; Received in revised form 12 May 2023; Accepted 16 May 2023
Available online 22 May 2023
1470-160X/© 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
A.A. Kafy et al.
terrestrial carbon and accounting for approximately 25% of the world’s
atmospheric carbon (Kreier, 2022). Moreover, forests contain organic
carbon, which comprises a significant portion of the net carbon in the
forest ecosystem, ranging from 36% to 60%, depending on the forest
type and location (Koutika, 2022). Regrettably, rapid land use/land
cover (LULC) change is destroying many forests worldwide, leading to
changes in soil organic carbon and contributing to approximately
25–30% of all greenhouse gas emissions (Olorunfemi et al. 2022).
Recent studies have also discovered that the world’s tropical forests
already exhibit reduced carbon absorption (Hubau et al. 2020). Over the
past few decades, the decline and degradation of forest ecosystems have
resulted in severe losses of global carbon reserves. The loss is particu­
larly concerning because clearing tropical forests removes vital carbon
sinks that sequester CO2 from the atmosphere and stabilize the climate
(Hoque et al. 2021). Although carbon storage (CS) from tropical forests
is expected to continue for several more decades, according to recent
climatic models, preserving and restoring forests is essential to
addressing climate change (Baul et al., 2021).
Forests can have varying impacts on the carbon cycle, ranging from
net emitters to net carbon sinks, depending on their unique character­
istics and regional settings. Forests serve as vital carbon sinks by
absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere and converting it into biomass
through photosynthesis. The sequestered carbon accumulates in forest
soils, biomass, deadwood, and litter. However, carbon is also naturally
released from forest ecosystems through respiration, oxidation, and
human activities (Waseem & Khayyam, 2019). The rapid growth of
human populations and urban settlements has created an increasing
challenge for forest lands and eco-friendly land cover (Almulhim &
Cobbinah, 2022). The transformation of forest land to other uses nega­
tively impacts terrestrial ecosystems, resulting in carbon emissions,
climate change, and global warming (Harris et al., 2021). Consequently,
severe natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods, and other calamities
occur, causing significant social and economic losses and contributing to
climate change on local and global scales (Amit et al., 2023; Senan et al.,
2022; Song and Zeng, 2017). Therefore, a comprehensive understanding
of the capacity of CS dynamics due to LULC change is crucial for
ecological and environmental management, climate change mitigation,
and sustainable development.
The UNDP and IPCC have established a clear link between LULC and
carbon sequestration and storage (UNDP, 2015; IPCC, 2019). To eval­
uate the ecosystem services (ES) of various LULC types, scientists have
introduced several models, with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem
Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model being the most advanced and
contemporary one for ES assessment (Sánchez-Canales et al., 2012;
Redhead et al., 2016; Leh et al., 2013; Keller et al., 2015). Researchers
have quantified and mapped CS and sequestration as one of the most
common regulatory services (Jiang et al. 2017; Kanime et al., 2013;
Stringer et al., 2012; Yang et al., 2020; Wang and Qie 2018). Although
previous research focused on the relationship between LULC and CS, the
majority of studies have been conducted in developed cities, coastal
regions, flood plains, arid and hilly regions (Fattah et al., 2021a; Zhao
et al., 2016; 2018; Lu et al., 2018; Favretto et al., 2016). Although some
studies have analyzed CS in developing countries (Adelisardou et al.,
2022; Liang et al., 2018b; Lininger et al., 2019), none have specifically
examined LULC-based CS dynamics in Bangladesh. In developing
countries, forest biodiversity is important in addressing climate change
by capturing carbon and regulating the worldwide climate (Liang et al.,
2021). A better understanding of how forest cover changes affect CS and
its impacts on environmental protection will help address climate
change and sustainable development in these countries (Hoque et al.,
2021). Forest cover change and its effects on CS in developing countries
are essential in the global context, as these nations are often the most
vulnerable to climate change (Ahmad et al., 2022; World Bank, 2021;
Begum et al., 2020).
Bangladesh is home to approximately 2.6 million hectares of tropical
forests, which comprise 17% of the country’s total land area and play a
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Ecological Indicators 152 (2023) 110374
significant role in carbon sequestration and storage (Koutika, 2022).
However, due to anthropogenic activities such as deforestation, the
country loses an average of 24,000 ha of forest area yearly. The Chit­
tagong Hill Tracts (CHT) region, which is the only extensively hilly re­
gion in Bangladesh and covers an area of 15,516 km2, has been
experiencing rapid LULC changes, particularly deforestation (Baul et al.,
2021). The reduction of forest cover in CHT can be attributed to a
combination of factors. Extensive deforestation for agricultural expan­
sion has played a significant role as local communities and commercial
enterprises clear forests to create more cultivable land (Ahmed et al.,
2021). Illegal logging for timber and fuelwood also contributes to forest
depletion, driven by high demand and limited enforcement of forestry
laws (Vasile & Iordăchescu 2022). Infrastructure development, such as
road construction and establishing new settlements, has led to habitat
fragmentation and loss (Liu et al., 2019). The reduction of forest cover
has far-reaching consequences that affect not only the local environment
but also the global carbon cycle and climate. Deforestation decreases CS
capacity, as forests serve as natural carbon sinks that absorb and store
atmospheric carbon dioxide (Pawlik et al., 2020). As a result, the loss of
these forests contributes to increased greenhouse gas emissions and
exacerbates global climate change (Hasan et al., 2019). The disruption
of the global carbon cycle also has implications for natural hazards such
as increased flooding and landslides due to reduced water absorption
capacity of the soil and destabilized slopes which significantly height­
ened vulnerability to natural hazards and put local communities at
greater risk, endangering lives and infrastructure (Brando et al., 2019).
Moreover, reducing biodiversity loss is a significant concern, as defor­
estation leads to habitat destruction and fragmentation, threatening the
survival of numerous plant and animal species (Shah et al., 2022).
Additionally, local communities that rely on forests for their livelihoods,
such as through the collection of non-timber forest products or
ecosystem services like water filtration, may face economic hardship
and declining quality of life (Tieminie et al., 2021). Lastly, the loss of
traditional knowledge and cultural values associated with these forests
is another consequence of deforestation, which can have long-lasting
effects on the social fabric of the region (Ogar et al., 2020).
This study addresses a critical research gap by providing a compre­
hensive assessment of the impact of LULC changes on CS in the CHT
region of Bangladesh from the year 1996 to 2021, a topic that has
received little attention in previous research. By employing the InVEST
model and mapping spatiotemporal vegetation cover dynamics, this
research contributes valuable methodological insights by adding novelty
for assessing CS potential and resiliency at the regional scale undergoing
rapid LULC changes. Mapping spatiotemporal vegetation cover dy­
namics will help identify potential areas for afforestation and assist
policymakers in landscape planning and management to minimize
possible future impacts. The intellectual merit of this study lies in its
focus on the understudied region of Bangladesh, highlighting the
importance of tropical forests in developing countries as essential con­
tributors to global carbon sequestration and storage. The broader im­
pacts of this study include its potential to inform policymaking and
landscape planning for more effective environmental management and
sustainable development in Bangladesh and other developing countries.
By identifying areas with high CS potential and addressing the drivers of
LULC change, this research can help policymakers develop targeted
forest conservation and restoration strategies, ultimately contributing to
global climate change mitigation efforts. Additionally, this study’s
findings can be used to raise awareness about the importance of forests
and their role in the global carbon cycle.
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Study area
The CHT encompasses an area of approximately 15,516 km2, rep­
resenting the only major hilly region in Bangladesh. Situated in the
A.A. Kafy et al. Ecological Indicators 152 (2023) 110374

southeastern part of the Chittagong Division, it shares borders with the Table 1
Chittagong district to the west, Myanmar to the southeast, Tripura to the Dataset descriptions.
north, and Mizoram to the east (Fig. 1). The region includes the districts Date Scene ID Sensor Cloud Path /
of Chittagong, Cox’s Bazar, Bandarban, Rangamati, and Khagrachari Acquired (Y/ Cover Row
and features a deep forest with rugged mountainous topography, wa­ M/D)
terfalls, and lakes. Home to a diverse array of ethnic groups, the CHT has 1996/04/06 LT51360441996097BKT02 Landsat 4–5 <5% 136/
a population of over 13.84 million people who largely depend on forests 2001/04/04 LT51360442001094BKT01 TM C1 Level- 44
for their livelihoods, either directly or indirectly (BBS, 2022). 2006/04/02 LT51360442006092BKT00 1
2011/04/08 LT51360442011058BKT00
Despite its natural beauty and significance, the CHT faces consider­ 2016/04/10 LC81360442016008LGN02 Landsat 8 OLI <5% 136/
able challenges due to human activities such as population growth, 2021/04/27 LC81360442021117LGN00 / TIRS C1 44
tourism expansion, landslides, and agriculture. More than 50% of the Level-1
CHT area is inhabited, with people clearing forests, leveling hills to
expand settlements, and constructing new infrastructure. These activ­
Atmospheric correction was essential for eliminating the impact of the
ities have led to dramatic changes in the landscape and land cover of the
atmosphere on the images, while radiometric correction helped adjust
districts within the CHT. Although the government and responsible
for sensor calibration changes over time. For a more comprehensive
authorities have implemented reforestation programs to replace lost
understanding of these corrections, readers are advised to refer to Pons
forest land, thousands of trees are cut down annually without permission
and Solé-Sugrañes (1994), Hadjimitsis et al. (2010), and Prie­
(Hasan et al., 2019).
to-Amparan et al. (2018). Following the corrections, the study area was
extracted from the Landsat images. A detailed methodological flow chart
2.2. Datasets of the study can be found in Fig. 2. Rainfall data for the years 1996–2021
were collected from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD).
To investigate the changes in LULC classes over time, this study The study region’s vegetation health was evaluated using the Enhanced
employed six Landsat satellite images captured at five-year intervals Vegetation Index (EVI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
between 1996 and 2021. The first four images, spanning from 1996 to (NDVI) via the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform.
2011, were sourced from Landsat 4–5 TM, while the last two images,
covering 2016 to 2021, were obtained from the Landsat 8 OLI sensor
(Table 1). The research was conducted within the 45 Datum WGS-84 2.3. LULC mapping using GEE
zone, and all images had less than 5% cloud coverage.
ERDAS Imagine was used to perform atmospheric and radiometric To produce LULC maps, the maximum likelihood supervised image
corrections on the satellite images to prepare them for analysis. classification method (MLSICM) was applied using the GEE. The

Fig. 1. Map depicting the geographical position of the study area.

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A.A. Kafy et al. Ecological Indicators 152 (2023) 110374

Fig. 2. Methodological flow chart of the study.

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A.A. Kafy et al. Ecological Indicators 152 (2023) 110374

MLSICM algorithm is founded on the Bayes theorem and assigns pixels accurate classification (Kafy et al., 2022). The Kappa Coefficient was
to each class based on the highest probability function (Majd et al., 90.18, 91.85, 92.63, 93.66, 93.57, and 93.32 for 1996, 2001, 2006,
2012; Ahmad and Quegan, 2012). It is a widely trusted and utilized 2011, 2016, and 2021, respectively, indicating an excellent result.
technique for identifying LULC features in remote sensing imagery since
Total number of corrected classified pixelx (diagonal)
it employs statistical methods to compare the spectral characteristics of Overall accuracy =
total number of reference pixels
various LULC types in the image with reference data or training samples.
Moreover, this method is versatile and can be implemented with × 100
different types of remote sensing data, including hyperspectral imagery (1)
(Oo et al., 2022; Fattah et al., 2021b).
The GEE platform provides access to an array of satellite data and Useraccuracy =
numberof correctlyclassifiedpixelxsineachcatagory(diagonal)
products. This cloud computing platform enables users to utilize more totalnumberof referencepixelsineachcategory(rowtotal)
computational capacity for image processing and analysis without ×100
storing images locally (Nasiri et al., 2022; Rahaman et al., 2022, 2023; (2)
Rahaman and Shermin, 2022). This study used the GEE platform to
identify five LULC types based on the corresponding LULC features

number of correctly classified pixelxs in each category (diagonal)

Producer accuracy = × 100 (3)
total number of reference pixels in each category (column total )

∑
Total number of Sample × Total Number of Corrected Sample − ( col . tot × row tot)
Kappa coefficient = 2 ∑ × 100 (4)
( Total number of Sample ) − ( col . tot × row tot )

outlined in Table 2. The band compositions for Landsat 5TM and Landsat 2.5. Assessing CS using InVEST model
8 OLI were natural color (red-band 3, green-band 2, and blue-band 1)
and false color (near-infrared-band 4, red-band 3, and green-band 2) as The InVEST model is a reliable technique that is frequently used to
well as natural color (red-band 4, green-band 3, and blue-band 2) and quantify regional CS for each LULC type (Hoque et al., 2021; Liang et al.,
false color (near-infrared-band 5, red-band 4, and green-band 3), 2021). The concentration of carbon was calculated for each grid cell of a
respectively. Previous research has extensively discussed the application region, depending on the carbon density pool which considers above­
of GEE platforms in similar contexts, and readers are advised to consult ground carbon concentration (Cm,a , Mg /km2 ) and below ground carbon
Tassi and Vizzari (2020), Pan et al. (2021), Iban and Sahin (2022) for a concentration (Cm,b , km2 ), soil organic carbon (Cm,s , km2 ) and dead
more in-depth understanding of LULC classification in GEE platforms. organic matter (Cm,d , km2 ) (Nelson et al., 2014). The CS density (C) for
To detect LULC changes, this study employed the Land Change each land use type in each cell can be measured by Eq. (5) (Aalde et al.,
Modeler (LCM), a tool that allows users to identify and analyze LULC 2006).
changes over time. This tool processes and analyzes satellite imagery to
generate precise and reliable maps of land cover changes. It incorporates ∑
n
C= Am *(Cm,a + Cm,b + Cm,s + Cm,d (5)
statistical and mathematical techniques to discern differences in the m=1
spectral characteristics of distinct land cover types.
To calculate storage of carbon (C) and carbon sequestration (S) for
the CHT area, Eq. (6) and Eq. (7) were employed, respectively. CS was
2.4. LULC accuracy assessment
denoted as CT2 and CT1 for the year T2 and T1, respectively. The bio­
physical data collected from field surveys and sampling were presented
Kappa statistics were employed in this study to assess the accuracy of
in Table 3 (Liang et al., 2018). A carbon sequestration model was
the LULC classes. More than 500 sample points were considered for each
established by analyzing the net change in pixel-by-pixel CS between
study year, collected from Google Earth imagery, and taken from every
existing and future LULC maps over the years.
district. Random sampling was used to determine the spatial distribution
of samples. Different sample sizes were considered for each LULC type, ∑
n
C= Cm,i,j (6)
as shown in Table S1. Overall accuracy (Eq. (1), user accuracy (Eq. (2), m=1
and producer accuracy (Eq. (3) were calculated along with Kappa Co­
efficient (Eq. (4). These metrics provide a comprehensive understanding S = CT2 − − CT1 , where T2 > T1 (7)
of the accuracy of LULC classification, with higher values indicating a
highly accurate classification (>85%), and lower values indicating a less

Table 2 Table 3
Land use land cover category. Carbon Concentration of each LULC Type.
LULC type Including land
LULC Class Carbon density (Mg / km2 ) References
Water Body Rivers, canals, lakes, ponds, permanent open water
Ca Cb Cs Cd
Vegetation Trees, shrubs, parks, playgrounds, mixed forest, grassland
Land Water body 0 0 11,900 123 (Ma et al., 2019)
Built-up Area Residential, commercial, rural settlements, industrial Vegetation land 410 5640 22,600 22 (Li et al., 2004)
infrastructure, transportation-related infrastructure Built-up land 210 4510 11,530 27 (Adelisardou et al., 2021)
Crop Land All types of cultivated land (crop field, urban agriculture) Crop land 4650 8070 10,840 100 (Razzaque, 2021)
Bare Land Open space, bare land, exposed soil Bare land 2260 9030 14,660 294 (Liang et al., 2021)

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A.A. Kafy et al. Ecological Indicators 152 (2023) 110374

Fig. 3. LUL changing scenario in CHT region.

3. Results and discussion
3.1. Changes in LULC scenario
The spatial distribution of land cover in the CHT region from 1996 to
2021 is depicted in Fig. 3. LULC statistics for each of the five districts are
presented in Table S2. Overall, the LULC change analysis for the entire
CHT region revealed a decline of 2862.86 km2 (21%) in vegetated areas
and 126.59 km2 (16%) in waterbody areas, while bare land, built-up
area, and agricultural land cover increased by 8% (2.3 km2), 388%
(466.27 km2), and 66% (2520.87 km2), respectively. Waterbody areas in
Bandarban and Chittagong districts increased by 275% (22.22 km2) and

6
A.A. Kafy et al.
Fig. 4. Temporal variations in LULC classes (1996–2021).
18% (13.77 km2), respectively, while those in Cox’s Bazar, Rangamati,
and Khagrachari districts declined by 49% (113.35 km2), 12% (52.71
km2), and 37% (3.07 km2). Vegetation cover in all districts decreased,
with the highest decline in vegetation cover recorded in Chittagong City
(1317.72 km2 or 64%), followed by Cox’s Bazar (667.79 km2), Ban­
darban (485.16 km2), Rangamati (409.93 km2), and Khagrachari (66.39
km2). The built-up area in Chittagong City, Bandarban, and Rangamati
increased by 144.24 km2, 10.87 km2, and 11.76 km2, respectively. The
built-up area in Cox’s Bazar increased by 330.09 km2, the highest in­
crease among the hilly districts in the Chittagong region. This is due to
two reasons: first, the expansion of the tourism industry increased the
built-up areas in the urban parts of Cox’s Bazar district; secondly, the
Rohingya influx in 2017 has intensified the loss of forest areas more than
ever. In 2017 and 2018, over one million Rohingya refugees, including
more than 400,000 children, fled to Cox’s Bazar (UN-OCHA, 2022).
Over 0.895 million Rohingya reside in Cox’s Bazar camp, the world’s
largest refugee camp, housing 456,712 children (UN-OCHA, 2022).
Every year, about 30,000 children are added. To accommodate these
refugees and provide wood fuel, 60 culms of bamboo and 6,800 tons of
fuelwood are used each month (UNDP Bangladesh, 2018), which has put
the vegetation cover in the Cox’s Bazar district in critical condition. The
Rohingya influx has also influenced the rise of agricultural land. Anjum
et al. (2021) reported that the increased population and expansion of the
tourism industry have been the reasons for the built-up expansion in
Bandarban, Rangamati, and Khagrachari districts. Chowdhury et al.
(2020) claimed that the Rohingya influx and expansion of the tourism
industries had caused the maximum built-up expansion in Cox’s Bazar
District. Rabby et al. (2022) reported a slowly decreasing rate of vege­
tation cover in the Khagrachari district. This study found that Kha­
grachari district had the lowest rate of destruction of vegetated areas
compared to other hilly districts in Chittagong.
The spatial distribution of the LULC transformation matrix is pre­
sented in Fig. 5, with the associated statistics shown in Fig. 6. Bandarban
district experienced a decline of 485.16 km2 in forest area, of which
452.95 km2 was converted into agricultural land (Fig. 4). Jhuming, or
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Ecological Indicators 152 (2023) 110374
shifting cultivation involving the cutting of trees on hill slopes, is
responsible for increased agricultural land in Bandarban. According to
Rabby et al. (2022), the increased population and tourism industries
have been causing the transformation of vegetation cover into built-up
areas in the Khagrachari district.
The results highlight the significant changes in LULC over time in the
CHT region, with a substantial decline in vegetation cover and water­
body areas and an increase in built-up and agricultural land. These
changes can be attributed to various factors, such as population growth,
tourism expansion, and the Rohingya influx, which have put pressure on
the natural resources in the region.
In light of these findings, policymakers and stakeholders must
consider the impact of human activities on the environment in the CHT
region. Sustainable land-use planning and resource management stra­
tegies should be developed to balance the needs of the growing popu­
lation and the preservation of the area’s natural resources. This includes
promoting responsible tourism, implementing reforestation and affor­
estation programs, and providing support for alternative livelihoods that
are less dependent on exploiting natural resources. Moreover, address­
ing the challenges posed by the Rohingya influx requires a coordinated
response from both national and international actors. Efforts should be
made to ensure adequate housing and fuel sources for refugees while
minimizing the environmental impact on the surrounding area. In the
long term, finding a durable solution to the Rohingya crisis will be
essential for alleviating pressure on the CHT region’s environment and
ensuring the sustainable development of hilly areas.
3.2. Changes in carbon sequestration scenario
Eco-friendly land cover, such as vegetation and waterbodies, can
absorb CO2 from the atmosphere through photosynthesis. In contrast,
human activities, such as LULC changes, have far-reaching conse­
quences for carbon sequestration and emission (Sha et al., 2022). This
study applied the InVEST model to map the historical CS scenario in the
CHT region (Fig. 7), with the spatial distribution of CS changes during
A.A. Kafy et al.
Fig. 5. LULC transformations over the years.
the study period presented in Fig. 8. The density of CS in CHT ranged
from 9.39 Mg/km2 to 22.40 Mg/km2 during the study period (Fig. 7).
The CS change analysis indicates that the loss of vegetation cover and
the increase in built-up area and agricultural land decreased the carbon
absorption capacity. In 1996, the entire CHT region had a CS of 495.93
× 106 Mg/year. From 1996 to 2001, CS declined by 1.6 × 106 Mg/year
but increased by 0.87 × 106 Mg/year from 2001 to 2006. From 1996 to
2021, the CS decreased by 16.3 × 106 Mg/year, with the highest decline
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Ecological Indicators 152 (2023) 110374
(6.06 × 106 Mg/year) occurring between 2006 and 2011. A district-by-
district gain-loss analysis revealed that Chittagong City suffered the
greatest CS losses estimated as 7.99 × 106 Mg during 1996–2021, fol­
lowed by Cox’s Bazar district with 5.36 × 106 Mg, Bandarban with 3.86
× 106 Mg, Rangamati with 3.53 × 106 Mg, and Khagrachari with 0.92 ×
106 Mg (Fig. 9). Chittagong City experienced the maximum CS loss due
to the most significant loss of vegetation cover. The massive Rohingya
influx in the Cox’s Bazar district is the primary reason for vegetation
A.A. Kafy et al.
Fig. 6. LULC transitions across districts in the CHT region.
cover loss, increased agricultural cover, and built-up areas, which
further contributed to the rapid decline of the CCC. This finding is
consistent with that of Islam et al. (2022), who found a rapid decline in
carbon sequestration capacity in Chittagong and Cox’s Bazar districts
during 1998–2018 due to the loss of hilly vegetation cover. Rasul (2009)
reported that agricultural land-use practices in the CHT region of
Bangladesh have been leading to the loss of ecosystem services such as
carbon sequestration, scenic beauty, water conservation, and biodiver­
sity protection.
The results demonstrate the significant decline in carbon sequestra­
tion capacity in the CHT region, primarily driven by the loss of vege­
tation cover, which emphasizes the need for effective land-use planning
and management strategies to minimize the environmental impacts of
human activities on the region’s CS capacity. Sustainable agricultural
practices, afforestation and reforestation programs, and responsible
tourism development should be implemented to mitigate the adverse
effects of LULC changes on carbon sequestration. Moreover, addressing
the environmental impacts of the Rohingya influx requires a coordinated
effort from national and international stakeholders to ensure that
adequate housing and fuel sources are provided for refugees while
minimizing the environmental impact. By adopting these measures, the
hilly region with a higher proportion of forest cover can work towards a
more sustainable future that balances its growing population’s needs
with preserving its valuable natural resources and ecosystem services.
3.3. Variations of carbon storage on different LULC
The distribution of CS across various LULC classes was identified in
the GIS environment and illustrated in Fig. 10. The results indicate that
vegetated covers are the dominant sources of CS. In 1996, vegetation
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Ecological Indicators 152 (2023) 110374
cover accounted for 79% (393.81 × 106 Mg) of CS in the total CHT re­
gion, whereas it accounted for 92% in Bandarban, 55% in Chittagong,
55% in Cox’s Bazar, 88% in Khagrachari, and 90% in Rangamati district.
Due to the rapid decline of vegetation cover, the CS in vegetated areas
has decreased. In 2021, the CS of vegetation cover dropped to 65%
(311.72 × 106 Mg) of the total CS in the CHT region. The CS capacity of
vegetation cover in Chittagong and Cox’s Bazar districts declined from
56.24 × 106 Mg to 20.18 × 106 Mg in Chittagong and from 27.18 × 106
Mg to 9.43 × 106 Mg in Cox’s Bazar by 2021. Similarly, the CS of
vegetation cover in other districts also declined.
Although the CS of water bodies and barren land cover has not
changed significantly, an increasing pattern of CS in cropland and built-
up areas has been observed. From 1996 to 2021, the CS of cropland
increased from 18% to 21% of the total storage. Chittagong City expe­
rienced a rise of 26.12 × 106Mg of CS for cropland cover, Rangamati
10.96 × 106Mg, and Cox’s Bazar 9.90 × 106 Mg. CS in the CHT region
increased by 7.59 × 106 Mg between 1996 and 2021, with Chittagong
City accounting for 2.24 × 106 Mg and Cox’s Bazar accounting for 4.98
× 106 Mg. Khagrachari exhibited a decline in CS in built-up areas by
0.01 × 106Mg. The CS for water bodies in Chittagong and Bandarban
districts increased by 0.16 × 106 Mg and 0.27 × 106 Mg, while it
declined by 1.26 × 106 Mg in Cox’s Bazar, 0.04 × 106 Mg in Kha­
grachari, and 0.65 × 106 Mg in Rangamati district.
The analysis demonstrated that the decline in vegetation cover is
responsible for the overall decrease in CS capacity across the study
districts. This finding aligns with a prior study by Islam et al. (2022),
who reported that the carbon stock of vegetation-covered areas in
Chittagong and Cox’s Bazar districts declined due to the loss of hilly
vegetation. They also claimed that the carbon stock of built-up areas in
these districts increased due to built-up expansion. In line with the
A.A. Kafy et al. Ecological Indicators 152 (2023) 110374

Fig. 7. Varitions of CS dynamics for 25 years.

10
A.A. Kafy et al. Ecological Indicators 152 (2023) 110374

Fig. 8. Temporal dynamics of CS from 1996 to 2021.

11
A.A. Kafy et al. Ecological Indicators 152 (2023) 110374

Fig. 9. CS variations across CHT districts.

Fig. 10. CS distribution among LULC classes.

present findings, previous studies have found a higher density of carbon greenhouse gas emissions and increasing carbon sequestration in
stock in densely vegetated cover areas (Liang et al., 2021; Ma et al., ecosystems.
2019; Solomon et al., 2018; Xu et al., 2016). This is particularly crucial One possible reason for the decline in CS in vegetated areas is
given the ongoing global efforts to mitigate climate change by reducing deforestation driven by multiple factors, such as agricultural expansion,

12
A.A. Kafy et al.
logging, and infrastructure development. Agricultural expansion can
lead to clearing forests and other vegetated areas for cropland, which
explains the increasing CS in cropland cover observed in this study.
Logging for timber and other forest products can also contribute to the
loss of vegetation cover and, subsequently, a reduction in CS capacity.
Infrastructure development, such as road construction and urbanization,
can further exacerbate the loss of vegetated areas, leading to increased
carbon emissions from built-up areas. Climate change might also play a
role in the observed variations in CS across different LULC types.
Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns can lead to shifts in
vegetation types, distribution, and growth rates, ultimately affecting CS
capacity. Additionally, more frequent and severe extreme weather
events, such as storms, floods, and landslides, can lead to the destruction
of vegetation and a decline in CS. The rapid decline of vegetation cover,
particularly in Chittagong and Cox’s Bazar districts, could be attributed
to local factors, such as the massive influx of Rohingya refugees, which
has put significant pressure on natural resources. The increased popu­
lation has led to an expansion of built-up areas and agricultural land to
accommodate the needs of the growing population, resulting in the loss
of vegetation cover and a decline in CS capacity. The consequences of
these situations are multifaceted. The decline in CS in vegetated areas
can result in a reduction in ecosystem services, such as climate regula­
tion, water conservation, and biodiversity protection. Furthermore, the
loss of vegetation cover can lead to soil erosion, decreased water quality,
and increased vulnerability to natural disasters, which can negatively
affect the livelihoods of local communities (Faisal et al., 2023).
To address these challenges, developing and implementing targeted
policies and management strategies that promote sustainable land-use
practices, conserve and restore vegetated areas, and enhance CS ca­
pacity in the CHT region is crucial. This may include promoting agro­
forestry systems, afforestation, and reforestation programs, and
establishing protected areas. Additionally, raising awareness of the
importance of CS and its role in mitigating climate change can help
garner support for conservation and restoration efforts.
3.4. Influence of ecological indicators on CS
A multi-linear regression model was employed to assess the complex
relationship between CS and ecological indicators, such as precipitation,
NDVI, EVI, and elevation in the study area. Figs. S1, S2, and S3
represent the spatiotemporal distribution of EVI, NDVI, and precipita­
tion for the study years, while Fig. S4 illustrates the elevation profile of
the study region. The multi-linear regression model was constructed
with ecological parameters as independent variables and CS as the
dependent variable, with the results summarized in Table S3.
The correlation coefficients for DEM, EVI, and NDVI suggest a pos­
itive influence of vegetation health and elevation on CS in the study
region. In Bandarban, vegetation health displayed a moderately positive
relationship with CS. A moderate influence of vegetation indices was
also observed in Khagrachari district. Solomon et al. (2018) identified
vegetation health as Ethiopia’s most crucial indicator of higher CS
concentrations. The correlation coefficients for EVI ranged from 0.431
to 0.493 and from 0.319 to 0.527 for NDVI in Khagrachari, indicating a
moderate influence on vegetation health. The strong positive influence
of dense vegetation on higher CS concentration has been reported in
several previous studies, including Xu et al. (2016), Ma et al. (2019),
Solomon et al. (2018) and Liang et al. (2021). Elevations in the Kha­
grachari district exhibited a weak positive correlation with CS, with
correlation values between 0.190 and 0.337. Elevation of Chittagong
and Cox’s Bazar districts had a more significant impact on CS than
vegetation health, implying that lower elevation in these districts was
more likely to have lower CS density. The built-up expansion was mostly
concentrated in lower elevated areas, resulting in lower CS. In the
Rangamati district, EVI was identified as the most influential ecological
parameter. Mwakisunga and Majule (2012) found that higher elevation
led to higher CS concentrations in the Tanzanian highlands. Similar
13
Ecological Indicators 152 (2023) 110374
findings were reported by Kobler et al. (2019) for the Northern Lime­
stone Alps and Enescu et al. (2022) for Romania. According to Ram­
anujan (2002), increased rainfall enhances carbon sequestration from
the atmosphere by promoting the decomposition of dead plant mate­
rials, resulting in natural fertilizers that help plants grow. This study
discovered that precipitation had a very weak correlation with CS
density in Bandarban and Khagrachari districts and a weak correlation
in other districts. Precipitation exhibited both positive and negative
correlations. A negative correlation was observed for the year 2021 in
Bandarban (− 0.099) and Chittagong (− 0.140) and for 2011 in Kha­
grachari district (− 0.096). The t-test value indicates a significant cor­
relation at a 0.01 confidence level for most of the ecological parameters.
The possible reasons behind the observed changes in CS dynamics
can be attributed to a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors.
Land-use change, deforestation, and urban expansion significantly
contribute to the decline in vegetation health and, consequently,
reduced CS capacity. As vegetation cover decreases, the capacity of the
ecosystem to sequester carbon from the atmosphere is diminished.
Elevation is also a crucial factor affecting CS dynamics. Higher elevation
areas typically have more densely vegetated cover and lower levels of
human disturbance, leading to higher CS concentrations. On the other
hand, lower elevated regions are more prone to urbanization and agri­
cultural expansion, resulting in reduced vegetation cover and lower CS
density. The influence of precipitation on CS density is more complex.
While increased rainfall can promote carbon sequestration by enhancing
plant growth and decomposition of dead plant materials, it can also have
negative effects depending on the specific conditions of the study area.
The negative correlation observed for 2021 in Bandarban and Chitta­
gong and for 2011 in Khagrachari district could be due to extreme
weather events, such as heavy rainfall causing soil erosion or flooding,
which can negatively impact vegetation health and reduce CS capacity.
To address these challenges and optimize CS, it is essential to consider
the complex relationship between ecological indicators and carbon
sequestration dynamics while developing land-use planning, conserva­
tion, and restoration strategies.
4. Limitations, strengths, and implications
While this study provides valuable insights into the changes in LULC
and their impact on CS in the CHT region of Bangladesh, several limi­
tations should be acknowledged. Firstly, the study relied on satellite
imagery from Landsat sensors to analyze land cover changes. Although
Landsat data is widely used for land cover analysis, it has spatial reso­
lution and spectral coverage limitations (Roy et al., 2021). Higher-
resolution imagery could provide more detailed information on land
cover dynamics, but it may not be available for the entire study period.
Additionally, the accuracy of the satellite data is subject to atmospheric
and radiometric corrections, which may introduce some uncertainties in
the analysis (Jenerowicz et al.,2023). Secondly, land cover classification
accuracy is an important consideration. While the study used the
MLSICM, which is a commonly employed technique, misclassifications
are still possible (Ha et al., 2020). The accuracy assessment based on
Kappa statistics estimates the classification quality but does not guar­
antee 100% accuracy (Pontius & Millones 2011). Furthermore, the study
focused specifically on the CHT region in Bangladesh, and the findings
may not be directly applicable to other areas with different ecological
characteristics. The drivers of LULC change in the CHT region, such as
population growth, the tourism industry, and the Rohingya influx, may
not be generalizable to other areas. Moreover, the study primarily
examined changes in LULC and their impact on CS. While this provides
valuable insights, other factors influencing carbon sequestration, such as
soil composition, topography, and climate variability, were not exten­
sively analyzed. Future studies could consider incorporating these
additional variables for a more comprehensive understanding of carbon
dynamics in the region.
Despite the limitations, this study has several notable strengths
A.A. Kafy et al.
contributing to its scientific value and reliability. Firstly, the study
employs a comprehensive methodology combining Landsat satellite
imagery and the MLSICM, allowing accurate and consistent land cover
mapping for 25 years, enabling long-term LULC changes analysis in the
CHT region. Secondly, the inclusion of the InVEST model in the study
provides a robust framework for quantifying CS and sequestration,
enhancing our understanding of the impact of land use changes on
carbon dynamics. Furthermore, the study’s focus on land use change and
its implications for CS and sequestration in hilly regions addresses a
critical research topic with significant environmental and climate
change implications. The study offers valuable insights for land man­
agement and conservation practices in similar areas by examining the
unique challenges and opportunities in the CHT region. Overall, the
study’s comprehensive methodology, utilization of the InVEST model,
accuracy assessment, and focus on an important research topic
strengthen its scientific value and contribute to understand land use
dynamics and carbon dynamics.
In terms of the future research scope, this study highlights the need
for further investigation into the specific implications of land use
changes on biodiversity, water resources, and ecosystem services in the
CHT region. Understanding these relationships can provide valuable
insights for sustainable land management and conservation strategies.
The outcomes of this study have implications beyond the CHT region, as
they contribute to the broader understanding of land use change and its
impact on CS in hilly areas. The findings can inform land management
policies and practices to mitigate carbon emissions and conserve valu­
able ecosystems.
In summary, while this study provides valuable insights into LULC
changes and their impact on CS in the CHT region, it is essential to
acknowledge the abovementioned limitations. Addressing these limita­
tions and further exploring the identified research gaps will enhance our
understanding of land use dynamics, carbon sequestration, and
ecosystem management not only in the CHT region but also in other
similar regions globally.
5. Conclusion
The study provides a comprehensive assessment of the impact of
LULC changes on CS in the CHT region of Bangladesh between 1996 and
2021. Employing the InVEST model, the research maps the spatiotem­
poral dynamics of vegetation cover and identifies potential areas for
afforestation, which can aid policymakers in landscape planning and
management to mitigate future impacts. The analysis revealed a sub­
stantial decline in CS from 495.93 × 106 Mg/year in 1996 to 479.63 ×
106 Mg/year in 2021, primarily driven by the loss of vegetation cover.
Chittagong City experienced the highest loss in CS (7.99 × 106 Mg),
followed by Cox’s Bazar district (5.36 × 106 Mg), and Bandarban (3.86
× 106Mg). Vegetation cover, a crucial contributor to CS, decreased from
79% in 1996 to 65% in 2021. Factors such as elevation, vegetation
health, and precipitation were found to influence the CS in the region
significantly. The findings demonstrates the importance of tropical for­
ests in developing countries as significant contributors to global carbon
sequestration and storage. In particular, the CHT region has experienced
rapid LULC changes due to deforestation, illegal logging, and infra­
structure development, which have implications for greenhouse gas
emissions, biodiversity loss, and local communities’ livelihoods.
The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and environ­
mentalists seeking to develop forest management plans that decrease
carbon emissions and increase CS through forest conservation and
reforestation efforts. The analysis also highlights the importance of
accurately monitoring and assessing forest cover changes to estimate CS
effectively. Additionally, the results can serve as a useful reference for
understanding the impacts of forest cover changes on CS in other regions
and contribute to global climate change mitigation and adaptation
efforts.
14
Ecological Indicators 152 (2023) 110374
While the research is focused on Bangladesh, the methodology
employed can be applied to other regions facing similar challenges.
Future research should address remote sensing limitations and include
additional ecological factors, such as soil quality and human activities,
which affect CS. By adopting sustainable land-use planning and man­
agement strategies, regions with growing populations can conserve and
restore vegetated areas, enhance CS capacity, and preserve valuable
natural resources and ecosystem services.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Abdulla-Al Kafy: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis,
Investigation, Methodology, Project administration, Resources, Super­
vision, Validation, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing.
Milan Saha: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Inves­
tigation, Methodology, Resources, Supervision, Validation, Writing –
review & editing. Md. Abdul Fattah: Conceptualization, Resources,
Supervision, Validation, Investigation, Methodology, Writing – review &
editing. Muhammad Tauhidur Rahman: Methodology, Resources,
Supervision, Validation, Writing – review & editing. Bushra Monowar
Duti: Conceptualization, Data curation, Investigation, Methodology,
Project administration, Writing – review & editing. Zullyadini A.
Rahaman: Conceptualization, Data curation, Investigation, Methodol­
ogy, Project administration, Writing – review & editing. Arpita Bakshi:
Conceptualization, Data curation, Investigation, Project administration,
Writing – review & editing. S. Kalaivani: Conceptualization, Data
curation, Investigation, Project administration, Writing – review &
editing. Sk Nafiz Rahaman: Conceptualization, Data curation, Meth­
odology, Writing – review & editing. Golam Shabbir Sattar: Concep­
tualization, Data curation, Methodology, Writing – review & editing.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Data availability
Data will be made available on request.
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi.
org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110374.
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