PRESIDENTIAL

ELECTIONS

2022 - 2026
DOCUMENT APPROACH

After the second presidential round, Colombia has elected Gustavo Petro as the President of the Republic for the period 2022-2026. For this reason, Valure - Public and
Government Affairs - presents the following report, which analyzes the results of the second-round of elections and establishes an overview of the new government’s
challenges in Congress, economy, international relations, security and peace , environment, health, among others.

Vaure prepared this report from the electoral results of the second-round, held on June 19th, and from the proposals presented by the president-elect in his
government program and different pronouncements.
 CONTENT

I GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS

II ELECTION RESULTS

III WHO ARE GUSTAVO PETRO AND FRANCIA MARQUEZ?

IV WHAT IS PETRO'S CIRCLE OF INFLUENCE?

V WHAT ARE THE PRESIDENT'S CHALLENGES WITH

CONGRESS?

VI WHAT WILL BE THE FOCUS IN STRATEGIC AREAS?

I GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS

The presidential election's second round presented an atypical scenario in which, for the first time, the
presidency was disputed between a left-wing candidate and an alternative one. Gustavo Petro has
consolidated himself over the last four years as the prominent opposition leader and the figure who
capitalized on the discontent of some sectors of society. On the other hand, Rodolfo Hernandez has
been characterized as an outsider politician and maintains a discourse focused on the fight against
corruption and the political class.

A high level of polarization in the country marked the government of President Ivan Duque. The
previous had its origin in a social crisis that was driven by the rise of Latin American mobilization
groups, especially the wave of massive protests in Chile (2019) and the impact of the pandemic on the
economy, productive activity, and society. This situation generated a significant erosion in the
government and the image of President Duque. With this scenario, the electorate identified with
candidates who proposed drastic changes in governing and managing the country's affairs.

The elections in Colombia took place at a time when the Latin American left has increasingly gained
more ground; such is the case of the past elections in Chile, Peru, and Honduras, countries where the
elected leaders represent a solid opposition to right-wing governments. Thus, the presidents of Chile,
Gabriel Boric; Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador; and Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, expressed their
congratulations to the president-elect and affirmed that a new stage of binational relations would
begin.
I GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS
Concerning the second-round results, the Colombian president, Ivan Duque, sent a congratulatory message to the president-elect, Gustavo Petro, and agreed on a
meeting in the coming days to "start a harmonious, institutional and transparent transition”.

Rodolfo Hernandez recognized Gustavo Petro's victory and expressed his support for the new government, which will begin on August 7. According to the
Opposition Statute, Hernández and his vice-presidential formula, Marelen Castillo, are expected to occupy their corresponding seats in the Congress of the
Republic.

The elected president, Gustavo Petro, has the challenge of uniting Colombia around a country vision project. For this, he must reach a consensus with different
political and social sectors that allow him to have a wide governance margin.

Election day passed without significant disturbances to public order. However, the rainy season in the country made it difficult to distribute electoral material in
some country areas (Atlántico and Valle del Cauca).
II RESULTS
GUSTAVO Pacto RODOLFO Liga
PROTEST
Historico Anticorrupción
PETRO HERNÁNDEZ VOTE ◉ The difference in votes between Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernandez was 704,900 votes,
equivalent to a variation of more than 3 percentage points.
11’279.265 47,30%
50,45% 10’574.365 2,24 %
◉ The percentage of participation during the second presidential round reached 58.07%,
representing a higher rate than the citizen participation in the first-round day (54%),
carried out last May 29th.
501.904
◉ Compared to the 2018 election, voter turnout increased by nearly 5 percentage points in
Z the second round.

VALID % INFORMED
99,95%
% OF
58,07% ◉ The protest vote reached 501,904 (2.24%), representing a higher rate than the first round
VOTES POLLING PLACES PARTICIPATION
22’355.534 (366,623). For its part, abstentionism stood at 41.93%, data corresponding to 16,351,427
citizens, a number lower than that presented in the first presidential round.

COMPARISON PARTICIPATION
◉ Compared to the first round, the increase in electoral participation was decisive for
2022 SECOND ROUND 58,07 % Gustavo Petro to reach the presidency.

2018 SECOND ROUND 53,1 %

 II RESULTS
◉ Both Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernandez obtained majorities in 16 of the 32 departments,
respectively. For his part, Hernández consolidated the support of the Colombian electorate What was the behavior of the
abroad.
voters in the regions of
Colombia?
◉ Compared to the first round, voter behavior remained in most of the country's departments,
except for Antioquia and the polling stations located abroad, where former candidate Federico
Gutiérrez prevailed on the first round.

◉ Regarding the main cities, Gustavo Petro won in Bogotá, Cali, Cartagena, and Barranquilla,
territorial entities in which he increased the vote by more than 10 percentage points compared
to the first presidential round. For his part, Rodolfo Hernandez won in Medellín, with 62.55% of
the votes.

◉ The results in the country’s main cities show a trend of significant citizen support for the GUSTAVO
“Pacto Histórico" coalition ahead of the local elections that will take place next year. PETRO

RODOLFO
HERNÁNDEZ

BOGOTA CALI CARTAGENA MEDELLIN BARRANQUILLA

III ¿WHO IS GUSTAVO PETRO?
◉ Gustavo Petro is an economist from the Externado University of Colombia and a specialist in Public Administration
from the Higher School of Public Administration (ESAP, by its acronym in Spanish).
◉ His public life began as a member of the M-19 guerrilla group between 1978-1990. Later, once demobilized from the
illegal armed group and after the National Constituent Assembly, he was elected as Congressman in the House of
Representatives. However, in 1994 and facing death threats against him, he was appointed by the government of
Cesar Gaviria as a diplomat in Brussels.

◉ In 1996 he was elected again in the House of Representatives. During his time as a congressman, Petro projected himself as the prominent opposition leader
to the government of Alvaro Uribe. Later, he participated in the movement that brought together the Colombian left-wing and led to the formation of the "Polo
Democrático Alternativo" Party. In 2006, with the endorsement of this new party, he was elected Senator and, in 2009, he formally launched his candidacy for
the Presidency of the Republic, after winning the party's internal elections.
◉ Later, Petro resigned from the party and founded the movement “Progresistas” with which he became mayor of Bogota for the period 2012 to 2015. However,
after two years of government, he was disqualified and dismissed by the then General Inspector, Alejandro Ordoñez, due to problems with implementing a new
garbage collection model. However, the IACHR granted precautionary measures, and he was reinstated in office until the end of his government.
◉ In 2017, he launched his presidential candidacy for the "Colombia Humana" movement after collecting 800,000 signatures, obtaining more than 8 million
votes in the second round, compared to more than 10 million for Ivan Duque. The second-place obtained in those elections guaranteed him a seat in the
Senate.
◉ In these elections, he was a candidate for the "Pacto Historico" coalition after winning the inter-party consultation with more than 4 million votes.
III ¿WHO IS FRANCIA MARQUEZ?
◉ Her public life began in 2018 as a candidate for the House of Representatives for the
constituency of Afro-Descendant Communities. Subsequently, she received the
Goldman Environmental Prize, the most significant environmental award in the world. ◉ Francia Marquez is a lawyer from the Santiago de Cali
◉ In 2021 she was elected president of the National Committee for Peace, University and a recognized social leader in the country.
Reconciliation, and Coexistence of the National Peace Council, an entity in charge of
promoting the Peace Agreement with the FARC.
◉ Before being selected as Gustavo Petro's vice-presidential formula, Marquez was a
presidential candidate for the “Pacto Historico" coalition. She obtained more than
785,000 votes in the inter-party consultation, the third-highest vote in all inter-party
consultations.

WHAT WILL BE YOUR ROLE AS VICE PRESIDENT?

◉ According to recent pronouncements, Francia Marquez will accompany the president-elect on matters
related to equality. Subsequently, and once the creation of the Ministry of Equality is approved, she could
lead that entity.
◉ During the campaign, Marquez played a fundamental role by positioning herself as an outsider politician
and a figure far removed from traditional political dynamics, unlike Gustavo Petro, who made agreements
with the traditional political class.
IV WHAT IS PETRO'S CIRCLE OF INFLUENCE?

JORGE I. OSPINA DANIEL QUINTERO

Mayor of Cali Mayor (suspended) of
Medellin

GUSTAVO BOLÍVAR EDUARDO NORIEGA

Senator Coordinator of the
campaign in the Caribbean CLARA LÓPEZ
region Former Minister

VINICIO ALVARADO VERONICA ALCOCER

Strategist Gustavo Petro´s Wife
ARMANDO BENEDETTI
Private Secretary y Senator ERNESTO SAMPER
2018-2022 Former President (1994-1998)

AUGUSTO RODRÍGUEZ
ALFONSO PRADA
Main advisor ROY BARRERAS
Chief of debate
v

Senator and former chief

Teachers union of debate
V WHAT ARE THE PRESIDENT'S CHALLENGES
WITH CONGRESS?
1 MAJORITY IN CONGRESS ENDORSES
Gustavo Petro reaches the Presidency of the Republic without an absolute majority in Congress. His political
movement, “Pacto Historico”, got 20 seats in the Senate and 27 in the House of Representatives. Although the
number of members elected by this coalition was significant, they won’t be able to consolidate majorities in
Congress. Petro faces the challenge of gaining support and reaching consensus within the legislative to promote
his agenda, particularly from the so-called "hinge" parties (Liberal, Centro Esperanza, and Alianza Verde), which Angelica Lozano Ariel Avila Fabian Diaz
will be decisive in making the legislative agenda of the new government viable. In this scenario, it is essential to
remember that initiatives that seek to modify the Constitution or those of a statutory nature must have absolute
majorities; there will be a significant challenge to the Petro government's agenda.

2 GOVERNMENT SUPPORT
Inti Asprilla Andres Calle Juan Carlos Lozada

Following the provisions of Law 1909 of 2018, in the month following the start of the Government, political
organizations must choose to declare themselves in opposition, independence or Government. In this line, the
political associations considered "government" to the extent that they endorsed the candidacy of Gustavo Petro:
Pacto Historico, ASI, Democratic Pole, Patriotic Union, Mais, and Renaciente Colombia. On the other side, the
remaining political forces with a presence in Congress, for the most part, will choose to declare themselves in Katherine Miranda Catherine Juvinao Pacto Historico bench
opposition, except for the so-called "hinge" parties (Liberal and Centro Esperanza) that will most likely declare
themselves independent and will be the parties to be convinced.
V WHAT ARE THE PRESIDENT'S CHALLENGES
WITH CONGRESS?
3 MODERATE THE SPEECH
To consolidate alliances, Gustavo Petro must moderate his speech to gain the
support of some centrist congress members. It is pertinent to mention that
Petro has constantly appealed during his campaign to a traditional anti-
political narrative, which in practice would generate notable challenges in
terms of governability because the traditional parties have a representative
number of members in this Institution.
5 POLITICAL DEBATES
Gustavo Petro is one of the political figures who declared himself in
opposition during the governments of Alvaro Uribe, Juan Manuel Santos, and
Ivan Duque. In this sense, it is possible that the traditional political
structures that still be part of the Congress to assemble an alternative
agenda to the Presidency in which they will promote the exercise of political
control.
4 AGENDA
In line with the programmatic agenda promoted by Gustavo Petro and Francia
Marquez, it is expected that they encourage and construct a legislative agenda
marked by environmental, economic, and social issues. The legislative plan will
process initiatives to approve International Agreements on the matter and / or
enact policies focused on promoting the rights of minorities, such as the Escazú
Agreement and tax reform with a significant impact on great fortunes.
6 OPPOSITION STATUTE
Article 24 of the Opposition Statute establishes that the candidate who follows
the President-elect in votes will have the right to occupy a seat in the Senate and
vice-presidential formula, a seat in the House of Representatives. In this case,
Rodolfo Hernandez and Marelen Castillo would be part of the Congress with a
mainly anti-establishment and anti-corruption agenda, in line with the discourse
handled during the campaign. However, occupying this seat is voluntary.
VI WHAT WILL BE THE FOCUS ON ECONOMICS?

◉ Structural reforms:
◉ Tax reform capable of collecting an additional 5.5% of GDP;
1 Tax reform

◉
◉
Eliminate the exploration and exploitation of non-renewable natural resources.
Democratize unproductive large estates.
2 Maintain Free Trade
Agreements (FTA)

3
Protectionist economy.
Basic salary for those who
◉ Greater regulation and taxes on large companies. cannot find work
◉ Pension reform that unifies the private and public systems.

4
◉ On different occasions, the president-elect has mentioned that he would use the Central Bank to meet
the goals of employment and growth. However, recently, he promised to respect the entity's
Increase tax rate on
independence. wealth

5
◉ Unify the different state financial entities under the same holding company. The new public financing
system would seek to "democratizing credit" by granting cheap loans, to the population that cannot Protectionist economy.
access the financial system and to the business models of informal workers.

6 Modify VAT
VI WHAT WILL BE THE FOCUS ON INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS?

1 Reestablish diplomatic
relations with Venezuela
◉ Return of the Latin American integration discourse, through creating a regional agenda to

2
advance climate change, the fight against poverty and productivity. Thus, the president-elect will
Compliance with and seek to approach other Latin American governments with which it shares the same ideological
promotion of climate tendency: President Gabriel Boric in Chile, Alberto Fernández in Argentina, Nicolás Maduro in
agreements Venezuela, and Pedro Castillo in Peru.

3
◉ It will maintain the relationship with the great world powers. Among his proposals, Petro
Prioritize the mentions the need to strengthen cooperation relations with the UN, the European Union, the
diplomat career United States, and the countries of the Pacific basin, especially China, Japan, South Korea, and
Southeast Asia.

4 Maintain Free Trade ◉ Review and renegotiate the Free Trade Agreements (FTA). Petro has stated its intention to
renegotiate the FTA with the United States in other pronouncements based on anti-drug policy
Agreements (FTA) and climate change.
VI WHAT WILL BE THE FOCUS ON DEFENSE AND PEACE?

◉ Structural reform of the Military Forces and the National Police. For the latter, he plans to unlace it from the Ministry of Defense and transfer it to the
Ministry of Internal affairs.

◉ Reform of the Justice System and control entities. Among the modifications, the change of the Inspector Office to the judiciary stands out; that is, the
entity would start to function as an "anti-corruption prosecutor's office”.

◉ Change in anti-drug policy as an issue related to public health, not a criminal procedure. Thus, it will seek to reorient international cooperation to
support the regions affected by the conflict and drug trafficking and not "finance the drug war". Additionally, and although it is not part of his
government program, Petro proposed the possibility of creating a Special Justice for Peace for drug traffickers in which they are granted legal benefits.

Disassemble the
1 Police Riot Control
Unit (ESMAD)
3 Agreement with the
ELN guerilla. 5 Reform of the Military
Forces and the National
Police

2 Justice reform and

control entities 4 Policy to combat
drugs 6 Compulsory
military service
VI WHAT WILL BE THE FOCUS ON HEALTH?

◉ Structural reform to the health system eliminates intermediation between Health Promotion
1 Maintain current
health system

2
Entities (EPS, for its acronym in Spanish) and users. Thus, the health system will be public and Eliminate the Health
work under a single model financed by progressive taxes and equitable contributions. Promotion Entities
◉ Preventive and predictive care model. (EPS)

◉ Deepening the price control policy for the pharmaceutical industry.

3
Control policy for the
pharmaceutical
industry.
VI WHAT WILL BE THE FOCUS ON LABOR AND SOCIAL SECURITY?

1 Increase in
retirement age

◉ Unified pension system in which a payment is granted to all persons of retirement age. This implies

2
the nationalization of private pension funds or individual savings regimes.
Radical pension
reform ◉ The State would become an employer of last resort; the National Government would employ all the
people who cannot find work in the private sector. This measure would imply a significant increase
in public spending, considering that the State will have to employ more than 2.9 million people..

3 Maintain private
pension funds
VI WHAT WILL BE THE FOCUS ON EDUCATION?

◉ In terms of education, the new president proposes a public and free program. Its primary focus is to improve access and permanence
in educational institutions. For the above, it presents:

◉ Active search for the out-of-school population.

◉ Transportation

◉ Expansion and improvement of infrastructure.

◉ Additionally, regarding higher education, Petro proposes significantly increasing the budget to strengthen the network of public
universities, SENA, and colleges with technical offers.

Colombian Institute of

1 Educational Credit and

Technical Studies Abroad
(ICETEX) reform
2 Universal, free and
quality education
VI WHAT WILL BE THE FOCUS ON ENVIRONMENT
AND MINING-ENERGY SECTOR?
1 Ratify the Escazú
Agreement

◉ Eliminate dependence on oil, coal and all mining operations in the next 15 years. In that
sense, Petro seeks to prohibit the exploration of the extractive industry and preserve the
contracts currently signed.
2 Fracking

◉ Change Ecopetrol's vocation by giving it a leading role in the energy transition process.
The company will be responsible for supplying the national territory for the next 15 years
(with existing deposits) and will be responsible for developing transition technologies
3 New exploration
contracts
towards clean energy.

◉ It will prioritize public policies against climate change, giving them a central space on the
agenda and importance to environmental programs over the balance of the economy.
4 Promote sustainable
mobility

5 Glyphosate spraying

6 Promote the use of

clean energy
VI WHAT WILL BE THE FOCUS ON AGRICULTURAL
SECTOR?

1 National industry of
fertilizers and inputs
◉ Recovery of the productivity of the Colombian countryside. Gustavo Petro seeks to develop a

2
national fertilizer and input industry, promote agroecology and prohibit the use of high-impact
Tariffs for agricultural toxic substances.
goods and supplies
◉ Food sovereignty through planting planning, using native seeds and creating agricultural belts in
the cities.

3 Promote the cannabis

value chain
◉ Rebuild and strengthen agricultural institutions, especially those related to land adaptation,
irrigation districts, financing, and monitoring of the supply of the agri-food system for local
consumption.

4 Transgenic seeds
◉ Protectionist economic policy in which intelligent tariffs are established on agri-food and agro-
industrial goods and supplies.
VI WHAT WILL BE THE FOCUS ON TRANSPORT
AND INFRASTRUCTURE?
◉ Develop an electric rail network and improve river transport.

◉ Develop specialized logistics platforms (intermodal Railroads-Rivers)

◉ Electric mobility in public transport system and encourage electric vehicles and charging stations.

◉ Collective projects to integrate productive initiatives in urban areas or return to places of origin aimed at promoting the repopulation of
municipalities.

◉ National urban policy that will reuse the built city and recycle existing urban fabrics, structures and activities.

1 Multimodal transport
system 2 Construction of
tertiary roads 3 Repopulation of
municipalities
VI WHAT WILL BE THE FOCUS ON THE INFORMATION
AND COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY (ICT)
SECTOR

◉ Fiber optic expansion with priority in rural areas. 1 Create an

Aerospace agency

◉ Free software and emerging technologies for the public and private sectors (metaverse,

2
blockchain, 5G connectivity, artificial intelligence, machine learning, among others).
5G connectivity
◉ Aerospace agency to manage a satellite to improve connectivity.

3 Free Software
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@ValureSidegap Valure Valure – AP&DG

Carrera 14 No. 76-26 Oficina 604

Bogotá, Colombia