What will TV be like in three years? Insiders predict future 17/08/23 13.

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What will TV look like in three years?

These industry insiders share their
predictions

Illustration by Elham Ataeiazar

The media industry is in the middle of change. There’s little doubt legacy
cable TV will continue to bleed millions of subscribers each year as
streaming takes over as the primary way the world watches television.

Still, the details of what’s about to happen to a transitioning industry are

unclear. CNBC spoke with more than a dozen leaders who have been
among the most influential decision-makers and thinkers in the TV
industry over the past two decades to get a sense of what they think will
happen in the next three years.

CNBC asked the same set of questions to each interviewee. The following
is a sampling of their answers.

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In three years, will legacy TV effectively die?

Peter Chernin, The North Road Company CEO: It will continue to be in

decline. It will be crappier. Budgets will get cut. More scripted
programming will migrate away to streaming. There will be more repeats.
But it will continue to exist. One of the really interesting questions here –
this will be fascinating – the core of linear TV is sports rights. The NFL
deal starts next season and is double the price of the previous one. That
will suck even more money out of programming budgets. Then you’ve got
the NBA deal, those renewal talks will happen this year. That will probably
double in price. So you’ve got increasing prices of the most high-profile
sports and declining number of homes watching. That will eat away at
everything else.

Peter Chernin

Getty Images for Malaria No More 2013

Kevin Mayer, Candle Media co-CEO: It only has a few years left. It’s
nearing the end. For entertainment that has no need to be viewed at any
specific time, that’s already done. It’s already largely shifted to streaming.
Next will be the end of scripted programming on broadcast networks.
There’s zero need for that. That’s going to come to a close in the next two
or three years. When ESPN finally pulls the plug, the bundle is effectively
over. And that will happen relatively soon. Linear TV is in its final death
throes.

Barry Diller, IAC chairman: It’s dying, but while syndication is around,
even if its diminished, it will still be here. The tail end of these things lasts
much longer than anyone predicts.

Ann Sarnoff, former Warner Bros. chairwoman and CEO: The linear
bundle will definitely be around in three years, but the number of
subscribers will continue to decline, and the average age of the viewers

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will continue to increase steadily. One big X factor regarding how the
cable channel universe evolves will be sports and how big a role streaming
services play in sports. The fragmentation of sports rights is good for the
leagues but confusing for consumers. The most passionate sports fans
will subscribe to everything and find their sport wherever it is, but
fragmentation creates a delicate tightrope for the leagues to walk in terms
of maintaining mass appeal and engagement, which have driven a stellar
sports advertising business.

Bill Simmons, The Ringer founder: Three years feels way too short to
me. I think it’s going to play out like it has with terrestrial radio and digital
audio. Five years ago, you could have said radio would absolutely be dead
soon, and nobody would have challenged you. But it’s still limping along
even with much heavier competition from podcasts, streaming, TikTok and
everyone else. Even with ad markets dwindling and the advertising being
much more localized, it’s not close to being dead yet. It’s like when
Michael Corleone says how Hyman Roth has been dying of the same heart
attack for the last 20 years. That’s radio. And linear TV will be the same
way. It will have a Hyman Roth death, not a Sonny Corleone death.

Bill Simmons at the 2017 Code Conference on May 31, 2017.

Asa Mathat for Vox Media

Jeff Zucker, former CNN president: It will continue to exist. Obviously it

will have fewer subs than it does today. News and sports will keep it alive.

Richard Plepler, former HBO CEO: While linear is obviously not the wave
of the future, cash flow is cash flow, which means it still hangs on to some
form of life.

Bela Bajaria, Netflix chief content officer: Since I started in this

business in 1996, people have always talked about linear TV dying.
Definitely the pie will be smaller in three years. But there are so many

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people who watch linear TV, especially sports and news. It will be smaller,
but not gone.

Kathleen Finch, Warner Bros. Discovery U.S. networks chief content

officer: Linear TV will absolutely still be here. When you look at the size
and scope of the linear TV business, it’s huge. People still like to sit down
as a group in front of the TV. It’s very communal. And advertisers love it —
whether they’re selling a new movie coming out or launching a car sale.
The linear TV business will be healthy for a long time. Obviously people’s
habits are changing, but as a business, it’s a large, robust, high-margin
business. One of the other things so important about linear is it provides
the financial ecosystem to feed a lot of streaming platforms. In our group
at WBD, it makes about 4,000 hours a year of content, and it’s a huge
amount of content that we make to feed the networks. A lot get a second
life on streaming – or a first life based on what we determine. To fund the
content just for streaming is a bit of a challenge. But because we really
have a great margin with a dual revenue system, we super serve that
audience on linear.

Byron Allen, founder, chairman, and CEO of Entertainment Studios and

Allen Media Group, speaks during the Milken Institute Global Conference
in Beverly Hills, California, on May 2, 2022.

Patrick T. Fallon | Afp | Getty Images

Byron Allen, Allen Media Group chairman and CEO: I think linear TV will
exist for a very, very long time. I believe that all of these various platforms
– they’re not instead of, they’re additive. Look at human behavior and how
we consume content, we’ve only made a richer landscape. When there
was the industrial revolution, it was fueled by oil and gas. This is the digital
revolution, and it’s fueled by content. Local TV will still be here and much
needed. You need local news. And let’s not forget the networks — ABC,
CBS, Fox, NBC, the big four broadcasters — have locked up the true
religion of America, the NFL, for the next 11 years. So you will be watching
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those networks for sports. Not just on streaming. I think that contract tells
you the bundle is here for a while.

Wonya Lucas, Hallmark Media president and CEO: I don’t think this is
the death of linear. I just don’t. I think that linear will still be alive and
thriving. I do think there will be some shakeout in terms of which services
survive and which ones don’t and which ones are bundled together, and
there will be some consolidation. I don’t think everyone can have
independence. But I think when we start bundling the cost of all the
streaming services, you’re looking at the same cost of a cable package at
some point.

Chris Winfrey, Charter Communications CEO: It won’t be effectively

dead, but it will be significantly more expensive and have fewer
subscribers. A lot of that has to do with the rising cost of sports rights.
The new NFL rights extension deal will generate about twice as much cost
per year starting in the 2023-24 season. That cost is now being
distributed over an increasingly smaller base of subscribers, which is
pushing up the overall cost of content. But in the next three years, there
will still be customers who can afford it. It’ll just be much, much smaller
and more expensive. Eventually there will have to be a restructuring of the
business.

In three years, which major streaming services will

definitely exist?

Ex-CNN boss Zucker: Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Apple and the
Disney suite [Hulu, ESPN+ and Disney+]. The fifth could be a combo of
the remainders: HBO Max, Paramount+ and Peacock.

Jeff Bewkes, former Time Warner CEO: Netflix, Amazon, Disney, HBO
Max. Maybe one more that doesn’t make much money or is about break
even and hovers near death.

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North Road’s Chernin: All of them with the caveat that there may be
some combination of Paramount, Peacock and HBO Max. The big guys
don’t want to buy any of them with exception with HBO.

IAC’s Diller: There’s only one streaming service that’s dominant, now and
forever, and that’s Netflix. But many others will exist.

Chairman and Senior Executive of IAC/InterActiveCorp and Expedia Group

Barry Diller walks to a morning session at the Allen & Company Sun Valley
Conference on July 07, 2021 in Sun Valley, Idaho.

Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images

Jeffrey Hirsch, Starz President and CEO: Disney, Netfilix, Warner Bros.
Discovery, Amazon ... and of course, Starz.

Candle Media’s Mayer: Apple TV+, Disney+, Netflix, Amazon Prime, Max,
probably. Paramount+ will be folded in, Peacock will folded in. Maybe
they’ll be combined with a smaller service like Starz.

The Ringer’s Simmons: You have Hulu, Peacock and Paramount out
there as candidates to get swallowed up by a bigger streamer, but who’s
doing it? Apple never does anything. Amazon doesn’t need to do
anything. HBO/Discovery just went through two mergers in six years.
Netflix never does anything. Disney/ESPN seems more likely to shed stuff
than buy stuff. So unless Comcast goes on a crazy spending spree, I don’t
see anything changing — I think everyone will still be around, just with less
employees and way less original content.

Netflix’s Bajaria: Netflix, of course. Disney+ has such a strong library.

Many of the others will be interesting. You’re already seeing Showtime and
Paramount+ come together. Does Hulu stay in Disney, or does Comcast
buy their share out? Does Warner Bros. Discovery stay with Discovery+
and HBO Max, or does it merge with another company? There will be a lot

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of movement and changes in the streaming landscape.

Will there be a cable-like bundle of several major

streaming services?

Candle Media’s Mayer: Yes, I think so. I don’t know if we’ll see bundles
between entertainment companies, but there will be some version of a
bigger bundle of content you’ll be able to buy at your choice.

Aryeh Bourkoff, LionTree chairman and CEO: It’s more about self-
bundling content and other offerings to generate platform and brand
loyalty from the consumer. What I think you will also see is the eventual
release of exclusive premium content to multiple platforms to better
monetize the best content, but the most successful platform relationships
will be self-bundled.

Ex-Time Warner boss Bewkes: I doubt it. I don’t see why you’d need it.
Any aggregator’s role would be taking any of the leading streamers and
attaching what are laggard, subscale channels. I’m not sure it’s
compelling.

Randall Stephenson, then-chairman and chief executive officer of AT&T

and Jeff Bewkes, then-chairman and chief executive officer of Time
Warner, a few days after the AT&T acquisition of Warner was announced
in October 2016.

Patrick T. Fallon | Bloomberg | Getty Images

IAC’s Diller: I do think there will probably be a more efficient way of

buying more streaming services, but I don’t think it will be analogous to
the cable bundle. One central warehouse who deals with all players and
sends one bill — that I don’t think is going to happen. I think it will be
somewhat chopped up. But there may be multiplicity, where there may be
a much easier way to access a group of streamers than dealing with them

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individually.

Naveen Chopra, Paramount Global CFO: I think it’s very possible but not
necessarily inevitable. On one hand, bundles have tremendous value in
terms of increasing acquisition costs, lowering churn and the convenience
for consumers. It’s something we definitely embrace. We’ve done a lot of
bundles and partnerships that we’ve been very successful with, whether
that’s with Sky in Europe or Walmart or T-Mobile in the U.S. A broader
bundle that incorporates multiple streaming services could offer some of
the same benefits. But there are two really big things you have to solve in
trying to effectuate that kind of bundle. The economics is one dimension,
and the other is the user interface and customer relationship. Today,
streaming services have independent user interfaces and streamers like
to own the relationship with the customer. So, you have to give up some
economics to be part of that bundle and still have a way of sharing
information and enough control over the UI to help build and maintain
audiences around the content. There is some experimentation going on
with all of these things, and with all sorts of challenges. But I definitely
think there’s a possibility of a cable bundle with streaming. It takes time to
evolve.

Ex-Warner Bros. boss Sarnoff: It’s hard to understand the economics of

how that will work. Can there be an aggregator so people wouldn’t have to
subscribe to a bunch of different offerings? The problem is always who
goes in the middle. That’s the thing: most media companies have wanted
to move away from someone controlling their audience, like cable
operators, and determining the value of the programming. Bundling
makes sense from a consumer perspective, but as a supplier, it’s much
more complicated. Paying one rate is simpler, but there’s an imperfect
value equation in there for the content supplier/programmer.

Ann Sarnoff attends the 32nd Annual WP Theater’s Women of

Achievement Awards Gala at The Edison Ballroom on March 27, 2017 in

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New York City.

Mike Pont | WireImage | Getty Images

North Road’s Chernin: I don’t know. A full-blown stand-alone bundle is

hard to do. There’s not an obvious aggregator who is going to benefit.
Whose best interest is it to subsidize losses to bundle these things
together? It’s pretty tough to figure out the economics. The big guys
won’t want to take a discount. It would take very complex negotiations.

Mark Lazarus, NBCUniversal Television and Streaming chairman: I

think bundles are definitely in the future. It’s sort of already headed in that
direction. What’s not there is the ability to replicate the cable bundle user
experience. It’s cumbersome, to have to go in and out of every app. It’s
buffering. You can’t flip between any two channels, which is
instantaneous. It needs to get to a point where the user interface or user
experience lets you seamlessly enter or exit content if we’re going to live
up to consumer expectations.

Starz’s Hirsch: Yes. In 18 to 24 months, you’ll start to see a repackaging

of the linear business into the digital business. The value of aggregation is
really important. You’ll start to see more people partnering up. Right now,
everyone is seen as a channel. Ultimately, the big folks will become
platforms, much like Amazon is doing today. The big guys are going to
become platforms. You’re seeing it now with Showtime as a tile within
Paramount+. Other companies’ content will become branded tiles within
the larger streaming platforms.

Starz CEO Jeffrey Hirsch

Source: Starz

Which companies will dominate as the main hub of

streaming?

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The Ringer’s Simmons: I believe Apple will be the dominant platform

because of its connectivity to user behavior through Apple TV and our
phones. They make it so goddamn easy; their main page allows you to
order movies, see all the new releases, see where you left off on any show
or movie you were watching on every other platform … it’s amazing. That’s
the only streamer that acts like a one-stop shop for everything I care
about. And they will get better and better at perfecting that. Plus, you can
keep logging into your different platforms on there through your iPhone.
It’s really smart. All roads lead through Apple.

North Road’s Chernin: YouTube, Amazon and Apple.

Candle Media’s Mayer: There will be three categories. The cable guys
could repackage streaming offerings. They’re already doing that with their
linear offerings. You’ve got the telcos (T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon), and
then you’ve got the big digital players — Google, Apple and Amazon.

Kevin Mayer, co-founder and co-chief executive officer of Candle Media,

chairman of DAZN Group, speaks at the Milken Institute Asia Summit in
Singapore, on Thursday, Sept. 29, 2022.

Bryan van der Beek | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Starz’s Hirsch: You’re seeing Amazon become a platform, and Warner is

now starting to become a platform. In the next three years, we’ll also see
compression technology that will allow wireless companies to be true
aggregators of streaming services — T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon. They’ll
become real challengers.

Charter’s Winfrey: There are a number of platforms — Roku, Apple TV

and Amazon Fire — that are trying to aggregate streaming content. But I
think cable has a real advantage. It’s what Comcast and Charter are
putting together with our joint venture, Xumo. We will take the voice
remote from Comcast, the technology assets from Sky and Xfinity, the

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leading live video app in Spectrum TV — you combine all that with the fact
that Comcast and Charter have a much broader array of programming
relationships than anyone else in the market. We also have a powerful
distribution channel to deliver this operating platform, both to existing
customers who pay for broadband and TV and new sales from our
different sales channels — stores, platforms — to put these boxes and
smart TV sets in customers’ hands. I think we have the best set of assets
and existing relationships to be able to put it together that none of these
other platforms can do.

LionTree’s Bourkoff: There hasn’t yet been an aggregator that has

incorporated all of video, audio and gaming content — and we don’t
foresee one anytime soon. That would be the beacon for consumers in
their search for entertainment, in the broadest sense. Absent that, any
other aggregation tool would have a different definition for different
customers. For example, younger demographics are increasingly moving
towards short-form content on TikTok, YouTube and other platforms.
Would that be included? The definition of content we want to consume
and where we consume it is always changing, particularly in a mature,
scarce environment.

Allen Media Group’s Allen: I don’t know if there will be a primary

aggregator of this content, but I do believe the consumer is very smart
and resourceful and will figure out how to get their needs met at a very
efficient price. The key here is to look at the world’s biggest streamer,
which is YouTube, and how it is completely free. Good luck putting
something in that search bar and it doesn’t come up.

What happens to cable entertainment networks? Will

they be sold? Shut down? Or will it look the same?

Paramount’s Chopra: I do think there’s the potential for additional

consolidation of cable networks over time. I think in the near term, we’re

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going to see an evolution of the type and mix of programming you see on
cable networks, given the audience declines in that area. The economics
of producing expensive original content isn’t going to work for every cable
network. They will have to look at different formats, relying on more lower-
cost content, library content, etc., but it will definitely evolve.

Ex-Time Warner boss Bewkes: If you’re a network with news and sports,
those can last. General entertainment network subscribers and cash flow
will decline. Some might get sold to private equity to harvest cash flow in
the three or four years. It’s not like they’ll go bankrupt, but they’re not
good for public equity ownership.

Warner Bros. Discovery’s Finch: It’s hard for me to say because things
seem to change so quickly in this industry. One of the most valuable
things is a brand that stands for something. Brands really, really matter. A
more generic cable network that lives on older content doesn’t
necessarily offer something to someone on a nightly consistent basis.
People don’t surf the way they used to. That’s not really how people are
wired to watch content anymore. They come to a decision based on how
they feel. So it’s true it is more challenging if you’re more of a general
entertainment network. You need highly specialized content. Without it,
you can’t survive or drive the kind of ad revenue that we can. When you
have a HGTV you have endemic advertisers. If you’re Home Depot or
Lowe’s, you have to be on HGTV.

Charter’s Winfrey: The question comes down to what is the value of the
content they’re providing? If they’re providing reruns but you can’t find it
elsewhere, then it still provides value to the customer. But what you have
today is programmers selling us content at increasingly higher prices and
asking us to distribute that to largely all of our customers, and at the same
time, selling that exact same content either into streaming platforms or
creating a direct-to-consumer product themselves at a much lower cost.
And many of those services have a much lower security threshold than

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cable, so customers are able to share passwords and access the same
content for free. So, our willingness to continue to fund that for
programmers when that content is available for free elsewhere is
declining. That means within the linear video construct, you’ll see an
increasing number of distributors deciding it no longer makes sense to
carry certain content, because customers are already can access it either
for free in a pirated fashion or just paying for it at a lower rate.

NBCUniversal’s Lazarus: I don’t think it’s a one-size-fits-all strategy in

the future. I think we’ll see some networks combine, like we’ve done.
Some will close down that don’t make meaningful contributions to the
bottom line. There’s so many networks today. Even with the erosion of the
pay-TV bundle down to 50 million, these networks are still a meaningful
contributor of revenue and EBITDA to companies like ours. So closing
them isn’t necessarily a great answer because you’re giving up profit.
Even if it’s a declining profit, it’s still profit. I think that part gets lost a bit in
the conversation now. Yes, we are managing a decline and streamers are
there to make up for lost revenue and profitability, but those businesses
still kick off, in many cases, hundreds of millions of dollars in profit.
Companies just don’t give that up.

What’s one thing that will become a TV standard that

doesn’t exist today?

North Road’s Chernin: Windowing. That’s the most likely change. Right
now, the current economic model is two things: pure vertical integration,
where you produce and own everything, and long-term exclusive licenses.
Neither make sense. You can’t produce enough good content and it’s
wildly overexpensive. What’s the value of 5- to 10-year-old shows? Right
now, a huge amount of money is spent for those shows. Media companies
would be better off doing three-year licenses and saving 20% to 30% on
the cost. Cable networks will be interested in buying old reruns from other
streaming platforms. It’ll be brand-new programming to a different

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audience. What defines programming is what’s new. When “Sopranos”

aired in syndication on A&E, it’s didn’t make HBO any weaker. You’ll see
streamers start selling programming to cable and to one another, and it
will produce value both to the company that owned it and the company
that bought it in syndication.

The Ringer’s Simmons: I believe Apple, out of nowhere, will start making
their own awesome televisions that have Apple TV embedded in them. It’s
kind of incredible that this hasn’t happened yet. They have every other
piece of the streaming puzzle in place — literally, all of it — except for the
actual TV. Why would they want Samsung, LG and whomever else to keep
innovating on their smart TVs and eventually cut Apple out of the entire
ecosystem? They’ll just make a better TV and crush them. I wish I could
bet on this.

Ex-Warner Bros. boss Sarnoff: A “metaverse” which offers commerce,

gaming, social interaction, sports, news and entertainment is inevitable,
but I think we’re quite a ways from that being the primary way people
consume media. It will be interesting to watch the metaverse evolve in
parallel to streaming and other direct entertainment offerings. The
offering that best engages and entertains the consumer will win.

Chairman, WarnerMedia Jeff Zucker attends CNN Heroes at American

Museum of Natural History on December 08, 2019 in New York City.

Mike Coppola | Getty Images

Ex-CNN boss Zucker: The ability to bet and/or gamble while you’re
watching sports on TV will be much easier. You’ll be able to go through
the TV to place a bet with a remote control, or your voice. It requires
partnership from the betting companies, but that shouldn’t be a problem.

Starz’s Hirsch: Content without borders. Artificial intelligence technology

will make subbing and dubbing of content simple. AI will allow you to

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watch content in your home language without a third-party dubbing it for

you. The world shrinks that way from a content perspective.

Netflix’s Bajaria: More people will have access to incredible global stories
on demand. The average person will gain access to more content than
ever before.

Entertainment Studios’ Allen: I think we’re going to see more AI

integrated into content, and it’s going to be more intuitive, so when people
watch the content it’ll be far more advanced in recommending content for
you. I think AI is going to help understand the touch points in content and
how to make it better and more compelling and engaging.

Charter’s Winfrey: Unified search. You’ll have a discovery and

recommendation engine combined with a voice remote that allows for a
seamless experience for the customer living inside a single platform. That
will allow a viewer to pick and choose what content they want month to
month — either live video or streaming.

LionTree’s Bourkoff: Sports is being unlocked in a big way. It’s the last
major bastion of content that must be watched live, which begs a different
approach. As owners of valuable IP, professional sports leagues may
increasingly go direct, either on their own or via a partnership model, and
monetize in other ways — from advertising and sponsorships to
commerce and experiences, including gaming and sports betting. We are
witnessing early stages of this dynamic with deals like “NFL Sunday
Ticket” on YouTube and the MLS deal with Apple TV.

Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler, center, runs for extra
yardage while Tennessee Titans linebacker Monty Rice, left, and safety
Andrew Adams (47) attempt a tackle during the second half at SoFi
Stadium on Sunday, Dec. 18, 2022 in Los Angeles, CA.

Allen J. Schaben | Los Angeles Times | Getty Images

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Warner Bros. Discovery’s Finch: There is something that is beginning to

exist now that I’m absolutely fascinated to see where it goes. It’s the
technology that allows viewers to choose the content they watch as they
are watching. Like the Netflix show “Kaleidoscope.” Handing the editorial
decision-making to fans is so seductive. It’s an opportunity for a piece of
content to be watched multiple times. There’s just a few pieces of content
that’s tried this, but the technology is there, and it’s an exciting new
development in content creation and consumption. It gives the audience
an interactive way to view these things. It’s just beginning to be utilized
and a lot of people are experimenting.

NBCUniversal’s Lazarus: Much of TV consumption is being done on the

biggest, best screen in your home. It’s all coming through your living room
flat-screen TV. What we see, and I think will change over the next three
years, is the amount of customization people are able to have to curate
their own abilities and to bundle themselves. How do you order your
streaming apps? While it’s not a seamless user experience to go between
Peacock and Netflix or something else, you can place them in whatever
order you want on the screen. The degree of customization is there.
That’s coming to the individual streamers, too. We’re working on a lot of
customization for our consumers. Consumers would like to have that
interactivity. If you’re on a live sports channel, you can curate your own
replays and then bounce back to live. It’s the next iteration of interactivity.

WATCH: CNBC’s full interview with IAC Chairman Barry Diller

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Disclosure: CNBC is part of NBCUniversal, which is owned by Comcast.

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