CURRENT BUSINESS CONDITIONS FUTURE BUSINESS CONDITIONS

ST. CLOUD AREA ST. CLOUD AREA

Aug/Sep 2023 vs. Three Months Ago 6 Months from Now vs. Aug/Sep 2023
BUSINESS June Aug/Sep BUSINESS June Aug/Sep
OUTLOOK SURVEY 2023 2022 OUTLOOK SURVEY 2023 2022
Summary Aug/Sep 2023 Decrease No Change Increase Diffusion Diffusion Diffusion Summary Aug/Sep 2023 Decrease No Change Increase Diffusion Diffusion Diffusion
(%) (%) (%) Index Index3 Index3 (%) (%) (%) Index Index3 Index3
What is your evaluation of: What is your evaluation of:

Level of business activity for 24.1 44.8 31 6.9 -14.7 24.3 Level of business activity for 27.6 31 41.4 13.8 15.7 33.3
your company your company

Number of employees on Number of employees on

your company's payroll 6.9 72.4 20.7 13.8 -2.9 24.2 your company's payroll 17.9 53.6 28.6 10.7 18.7 25.9

length of the workweek for 3.4 89.7 6.9 3.5 8.8 3 length of the workweek for 6.9 86.2 6.9 0 6.2 -6.4
your employees your employees

Capital expenditures (equip., Capital expenditures (equip.,

machinery, structures, etc.) by 3.6 60.7
Type something 35.7 32.1 35.3 36.4 machinery, structures, etc.) by 14.3 60.7
Type something 25 10.7 43.8 23.4
your company your company

Employee compensation 0 46.4 53.6 53.6 50 57.6 Employee compensation 0 48.3 51.7 51.7 56.3 51.6
(wages and benefits) by your (wages and benefits) by your
company company
Prices received for your Prices received for your
companyʼs products 6.9 58.6 34.5 27.6 23.6 54.5 companyʼs products 3.4 51.7 44.8
Type something 41.4 25 58.1

National business activity 8.3 62.5 29.2 20.9 -24.2 13.3 National business activity 29.2 45.8 25 -4.2 -6.5 11.1

Your companyʼs difficulty 10.7 Type something

67.9 21.4 10.7 0 13 Your companyʼs difficulty 10.7 Type something
67.9 21.4 10.7 6.7 10.4
attracting qualified workers attracting qualified workers

*Source: SCSU Department of Economics *Source: SCSU Department of Economics

Notes: (1) reported numbers are percentages of businesses surveyed. (2) rows may not sum to 100 because of “not applicable” Notes: (1) reported numbers are percentages of businesses surveyed. (2) rows may not sum to 100 because of “not applicable”
and omitted responses. (3) diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the and omitted responses. (3) diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the
percentage indicating a decrease. A positive diffusion index is generally consistent with economic expansion. percentage indicating a decrease. A positive diffusion index is generally consistent with economic expansion.

Strong survey results move KEY RESULTS

St. Cloud back toward growth 60

55

Business leaders positive on national economy

50
45

over the summer, but still question the road ahead

BY KING BANAIAN AND
MANA KOMAI MOLLE
St. Cloud State University
Business leaders
reported stronger local
results in the last St. Cloud
Quarterly Business Survey.
Thirty-one percent said
their business activity
expanded over the
summer, while 24% said
it had declined. Hiring
improved, with continuing
strength in wages paid,
capital spending and
prices received for
products.
► Few leaders felt
40
35
30
national business activity survey questions expecting it to retreat in
had decreased, while continued to show the next six months, which 25
29% felt it had increased, weakness. Most notably, would mean they expect 20
consistent with national future capital expenditure recession by the end of 15
economic reporting over plans fell dramatically the year or very early in 10
the summer. (perhaps due to higher 2024. “[E]conomic caution 5
The future outlook borrowing costs and has impacted many of the
0
is murkier. Forty-one tighter credit conditions.) businesses we work with
Future Business Activity Future Prices Received Future Difficulty
percent said their business 45% of business still this year,” said one survey
Attracting Qualified
activity would expand over expect to receive higher respondent. Workers
the next six months, while prices for their products, Business leaders cited
28% said it would decline; while only one firm rising interest rates as an
the resulting diffusion thought it would receive issue. One respondent Sep. 2023 June 2023 Sep. 2022
index is little changed from lower prices. indicated that rising rates
our survey in May/June ► There was no real “and lack of housing continues to be strong.” or simply withdraw their
when we first predicted a change in the future inventories has negatively Thus while national predictions from earlier
recession would occur in expectation of national impacted home loan data are pushing the cable in the year, local business
St. Cloud. business activity, with volumes. Surprisingly, news experts to postpone leaders seem much more
► Almost all underlying slightly more respondents consumer loan demand the recession to 2024 wary.

We asked:
BY KING BANAIAN
AND MANA KOMAI MOLLE Which of the following best describes your
Special Question #1
What are your employees’
main priorities?
Which of the following best describes your
Special Question #2

St. Cloud State University

current/prospective employeesʼ main main priorities in relationship with your
Traditional workplace
practices shifted during
priorities? employees?
and after the COVID-19
pandemic amid pandemic- 9 6

related pressure and a 5.5

8
tight labor market. Certain 5
cultural elements such as 7 4.5
flexibility, work-life balance,
4
supportive environment, 6
3.5
autonomy, and freedom 5
were prioritized; others, 3

such as social interactions, 4 2.5

workplace vitality, and 2
organizational cohesion, were 3
1.5
de-emphasized. 2 1
The pandemic has now
0.5
receded and the U.S. labor 1
4.12 4.33 5.95 3.34 2.81 3.27 2.27 1.57
market is showing signs of 0
0 8.05 5.74 6.08 6.08 6.24 5.18 5.21 4.23 2.5
moderation in response to the
t

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Federal Reserve’s continuous

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interest rate hikes. Although the

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U.S. economy added 187,000

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jobs in August, unemployment

W

rate grew to 3.8%, wage

increases moderated, and labor
force participation increased
from 62.6 to 62.8 partly due to
concerns about an economic
downturn. Which cultural shifts
should stay, and which should
change back?
Intelligent leadership
requires deliberate assessment
of cultural shifts and strategic
adjustments of employee-
employer relationships,
interactions, expectations, and development are tied in third “Which of the following beneficial to every business,”
priorities. place. best describes your current/ one respondent said. Payroll
Survey respondents indicate “This is my assessment, not prospective employees’ main costs take the third place.
that, from the employers’ the employees,” one respondent priorities? The bottom of the list again
point of view, benefits and said. Diversity and inclusion According to our survey belongs to diversity and
compensations are employees’ was considered the employees’ responses, employee inclusion based on our survey
highest priority. “Money, least important consideration engagement and retention is responses.
money, money,” one employer from the employers’ point of the employers’ highest priority “Which of the following
responded. The second view. “Our team is very career followed by employee well- best describes your main
place belongs to a positive focused and foregoes flexibility being in second place. “The priorities in relationship with
work environment. Work-life for the culture,” another … employee is happier and your employees?”
balance and career growth and employer responded. more productive, which is

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 Private Employment vs LEI forecast
St. Cloud MSA, 2013-2023

110,000

Every three months, two St. Cloud State 105,000

University economists analyze the latest business
and worker data, as well as the results from a survey
of local business leaders. The result is the St. Cloud
Area Quarterly Business Report. It has been published 100,000
four times a year since 1999. For the first year,
St. Cloud LIVE is the publishing partner for this
content. 95,000

MEET THE AUTHORS:

90,000

85,000
KING BANAIAN
College of Education
and Learning Design
6/1/2013

12/1/2013

6/1/2014

12/1/2014

6/1/2015

12/1/2015

6/1/2016

12/1/2016

6/1/2017

12/1/2017

6/1/2018

12/1/2018

6/1/2019

12/1/2019

6/1/2020

12/1/2020

6/1/2021

12/1/2021

6/1/2022

12/1/2022

6/1/2023

12/1/2023
320-308-4797

MANA KOMAI MOLLE Leading economic

indicators trending upward
St. Cloud State University
Department of Economics
320-308-4781
BY KING BANAIAN AND recession with a greater
King Banaian specializes in analyzing data and
writing about it in the second portion of this report.
MANA KOMAI MOLLE
St. Cloud State University
lag in our model than
does stock prices or
Impact of Indicators on
Mana Komai Molle collects and analyzes the survey results. St. Cloud Leading
responses to the St. Cloud Area Business Outlook The St. Cloud Index More recent results
Survey, covered in an early portion of the report. of Leading Economic suggest claims may be Economic Indicators
Only Molle has access to the confidential list of Indicators turned increasing. July 2023
surveyed businesses and the returned surveys. sharply higher in the Professional
Questions about the survey can be directed to her. most recent quarter employment, which
Special questions asked in the survey may at times after three quarters of includes the highly-
deal with public policy but do not reflect a political flat performance. The predictive area of
agenda of either of the authors. strength of responses for temporary help
both current and future employment, was down
conditions from the St. over the last three months.
ONLINE Cloud Area Quarterly We do not have specific
Business Survey were data in this area for St.
For the full report, largely responsible for Cloud. The American
log on to the gains, reversing their Staffing Association
www.stcloudlive.com. negative reads from May reports that around the
and June. time of our data temporary Type something

Two other positive help hirings was flat, and

contributors were down about 4% from year-
the positive recent ago levels.
performance of the New business
St. Cloud Stock Price incorporations for our
index and earlier region have also trended Type something
performance of initial lower though still well
claims of unemployment above the averages of
insurance. Initial claims the second half of the
predict growth or 2010s.

Advertising for jobs St. Cloud JobSpot Posting Index, 2020-23

shows rapid decline

(Dec. 2020 = 100); Source: GSDC, Dayta Marketing, SCSU

140

BY KING BANAIAN AND
MANA KOMAI MOLLE
St. Cloud State University
Since 2016 the Greater
St. Cloud Development
Corp. has hosted the
GSDC JobSpot resource
page that allows area
businesses to post jobs
that they have available
and provide a portal
for jobseekers to apply
for them. Over time
the number of jobs
has expanded as well
as engagement from
potential employees.
130
in major metropolitan vaccines) advertising
markets to show the use of was accelerating on the 120
its site by both employers site. That acceleration
continued through 2021 110
and employees.
Dayta Marketing, a and into 2022. 100
local firm, provides GSDC Since late 2022,
with support for JobSpot however, advertising 90
as part of GSDC’s St. of positions declined
Cloud Shines initiative. precipitously. A significant 80
With our partnership with user of JobSpot 70
GSDC, we approached is Amazon, whose
Dayta Marketing to warehouse opened in 60
acquire data on the use of December 2021. Between
JobSpot. The graph above it ending its startup 50
shows our first result. As phase and the slowing of
40
we have only data since purchases online, Amazon
late 2019 and needed has undoubtedly curtailed 30
some baselining, we are some of its advertising.
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21

Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22

Apr-23
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21

May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23

May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23

The use of the Internet
for matching workers and
firms was accelerated
during the pandemic
and is now accepted as
a preferred means to
advertise and search. The
online jobmatching firm
Indeed now creates data
only able to graph job However, that does not
postings since December account for all (or even a
2020. The graph above majority) of the decline in
shows that even from advertising. This might be actively seeking workers, partnership with Dayta visitors to the site who
the very strong levels at because businesses may a story that would match Marketing and the GSDC click on specific jobs, for
the end of the first year be finding other avenues our data on the difficulty as we continue to explore instance, that might tell us
of the pandemic (but for advertising jobs than of finding qualified workers the data that the website about labor supply, a very
before the widespread JobSpot. Or it might be from the survey. generates. We are able elusive measure for our
availability of COVID-19 a sign that firms are less We anticipate further to look at the number of work. Stay tuned!

St. Cloud St. Cloud 11 Stock Price Index

Stock
(Nov. 1994 = 100)

Price
1200

1150

Index
1100 We have left the
LEI business climate
1050 meter at four (out of
six), which is the same
1000
The St. Cloud 11 Stock Price as the previous (June)
Index rose 9.5% in the three QBR.
950
months ending July 31, 2023.
The close was near the high 900
since we started calculating
this index in 1994. Nine of the 11 850
stocks rose, led by New Flyer.
The company’s St. Cloud facility 800
recently announced an increased

Recruiting
backlog of orders for its electric 750
buses. The stock was up 54% in
700
for you.
the quarter.
The St. Cloud index slightly
8/26/2020
9/25/2020
10/26/2020
11/24/2020

7/28/2021
8/26/2021
9/27/2021

6/28/2022
7/28/2022
8/26/2022
9/27/2022
12/24/2020
1/27/2021
2/26/2021
3/29/2021
4/28/2021
5/27/2021
6/28/2021

10/26/2021
11/24/2021
12/27/2021
1/26/2022
2/25/2022
3/28/2022
4/27/2022
5/26/2022

10/26/2022
11/28/2022
12/28/2022
1/30/2023
3/1/2023
3/30/2023
5/1/2023
5/31/2023
6/30/2023
8/1/2023
8/30/2023

outperformed the S&P 500, which

rose 9.4% in the same period,
while the Dow Jones 30 Industrials
index fell 14.6%.
jobshq.com