What is Complexity?

What is Complexity?

Complexity is that property of a system which makes it

difficult to formulate its overall behavior even when given
reasonably complete information about its elements and their
inter-relationships.
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 Structural Complexity
What is Complexity?

◼ Due to the large number of elements in a system and the

interrelationships between these elements.
◼ Also known as detail complexity.
◼ Sometimes refer to as technical complexity.
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 Behavioral Complexity
What is Complexity?

◼ Differences among individuals or groups due to values, goals,

interests etc. could give rise to complex system’s behaviour.
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 Dynamic Complexity
What is Complexity?

◼ In dynamic complexity, the effect is not immediately obvious at

the time the cause is introduced.
◼ The internal elements could change over time, e.g. people
change, things deteriorate etc., affecting the behavior of the
system.
◼ The environment that affects a system also changes over time.
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 Types of Problems
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Types of Problems and Complexities

Wicked Messes/
Social Messes/
High Complex Projects/
Wicked
Engineering Systems/
Complex and Chaotic Contexts
Large-Scale Systems
Behavioral
Complexity

Low
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Simple/ Tame Messes

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High
Low
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Structural Complexity
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Types of Problems
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Cynefin Framework
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Complicated
Complex
Simple
Cynefin Framework

◼ Complicated - at
least one answer
exists
◼ Complex - no right
answer
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◼ Chaotic
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Simple
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Chaotic
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Sense Making
Cynefin Framework
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Sense Making
Cynefin Framework
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LSSE Framework

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Principles in Complexity and LSSE

Principles in Complexity and LSSE

A Complexity Primer for Systems Engineers

INCOSE WHITE PAPER 2016
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Think like a gardener, not a watchmaker

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Consider the complexity of the environment and the solution,

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and think about evolving a living solution to the problem rather

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than constructing a system from scratch.

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Principles in Complexity and LSSE
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Combine courage with humility

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◼ It takes courage to acknowledge complexity, relinquish

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control, encourage variety, and explore unmapped territory. It

takes humility to accept irreducible uncertainty, to be
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skeptical of existing knowledge, and to be open to learning

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from failure.
◼ A combination of courage and humility enables the complex
Principles in Complexity and LSSE

systems engineer to risk genuine innovation and learn fast

from iterative prototyping of solutions in context.
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 Take an adaptive stance
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◼ Systems engineers should mimic how living systems cope with

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complexity by identifying and creating variation, selecting the

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best versions, and amplify the fit of the selected versions. This
means, for example, to think “influence” and “intervention” rather
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than “control” and “design.”

Designing or evolving a complex system requires recognition
Principles in Complexity and LSSE

that the designer may not ever be able to control or even

understand the system completely.
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Use free order

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◼ In architecting and
designing solutions, build
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in “order for free” using

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self-organization,
presuming it has been
Principles in Complexity and LSSE

modeled and can be

limited to desired effects.
This in particular applies
when the system being
designed must be resilient.
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Identify and use patterns

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◼ Patterns are exhibited by complex systems,

can be observed and understood, and are a
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key mechanism in the engineering of

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complex systems.
◼ Patterns are the primary means of dealing
Principles in Complexity and LSSE

specifically with emergence and side

effects—that is, the means of inducing
desired emergence and side effects, and the
means of avoiding undesired emergence
and side effects.
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Zoom in and zoom out

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◼ Because complex systems cannot be understood at a single

scale of analysis, systems engineers must develop the habit of
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looking at their project at many different scales, by iteratively

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zooming in and zooming out. Can problems be solved more

elegantly by addressing them at a higher or lower hierarchical
Principles in Complexity and LSSE

level?
◼ The complex systems engineer must be especially open to
solutions that arise from the bottom-up through self-
organization, rather than only seeking to impose order from the
top-down.
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See through new eyes

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◼ A complex situation often

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looks very different from the

perspectives of the variety of
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stakeholders. By empathizing
with these multiple
Principles in Complexity and LSSE

perspectives, a systems
engineer can sometimes find
creative ways to solve several
problems at once.
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 Collaborate
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◼ Collaboration includes
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information sharing, active

listening, establishment of
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trust to enable candid

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dialogue, and making

decisions transparent. A
collaborative mindset can
Principles in Complexity and LSSE

lead to deeper stakeholder

engagement practices that
may include crowdfunding
and crowdsourcing, to
enable co-creation and co-
evolutionary systems
design.
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Achieve Balance
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◼ Optimization is often counterproductive within a complex

system. Either the whole is sub-optimized when a part is
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optimized, or an optimized whole becomes rigid, unable to

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flex with changing conditions. Instead of optimizing,

complex systems engineers should seek balance among
Principles in Complexity and LSSE

competing tensions within the project.

◼ Systems engineers can leverage integrative thinking to
generate improved solutions and avoid binary either/or
tradeoffs. The goal is a system that would continue to
meet the need even if a number of current conditions
change.
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Learn from problems

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In a changing context, with an evolving system, where elements

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are densely interconnected, problems and opportunities will

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continually emerge. Moreover, they will emerge in surprising

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ways, due to phase transitions, cascading failures, fat tailed

distributions, and “black swan” (Taleb, 2007) events.
Principles in Complexity and LSSE

◼ A traditional approach to risk management and mitigation should

be augmented by a complexity mindset that balances risk
management with exploiting opportunity and expects and learns
from error.
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Meta-cognition
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◼ Meta-cognition, or reflecting on how one reflects, helps to

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identify bias, make useful patterns of thinking more frequent,

and improve understanding of a complex situation.
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Focus on regions of outcome space

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◼ Instead of zeroing in on an exact solution, focus on what range

of solutions will have the desired effects, and design to keep out
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of forbidden ranges.
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Understand what motivates autonomous agents

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◼ Changing rewards will shape collective behavior. Implement

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incentives that will move the system toward a more desired

state.
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Maintain adaptive feedback loops

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◼ Adaptive systems correct for

output variations via a feedback
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mechanism. Over time,

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feedback loops can either hit

the limit of their control space,
Principles in Complexity and LSSE

or may be removed in the

interest of maintaining stability.
To maintain robustness,
periodically revisit feedback
and ensure that adaptation can
still occur.
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Integrate problems
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◼ Focus on the relationships among problems rather than

addressing each problem separately. This allows fewer
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solutions that take care of multiple problems in an integrative

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fashion
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