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Chapter 5 - Estimating Project Times Costs - 2023
Chapter 5 - Estimating Project Times Costs - 2023
Costs
5–2
1
Estimating Projects
• Estimating
The process of forecasting or approximating the time
and cost of completing project deliverables.
The task of balancing expectations of stakeholders
and need for control while the project is implemented.
• Types of Estimates
Top-down (macro) estimates: analogy, group
consensus, or mathematical relationships
Bottom-up (micro) estimates: estimates of elements
of the work breakdown structure
5–3
EXHIBIT 5.1
5–4
2
Factors Influencing the Quality of Estimates
Equipment down-
time, national
holidays, vacations, Planning Horizon*
and legal limits
Other
Project
(Nonproject)
Duration
Factors
Quality of
Organization Estimates People
Culture
padding estimates is skills
tolerated vs place a of the
premium on accuracy people
Padding Project Structure
Estimates and Organization
dedicated
project team
*(mốc kế hoạch) the amount of time an organization will look into the
5–5
vs. matrix
future when preparing a strategic plan
Padding Estimates
3
Estimating Guidelines for Times,
Costs, and Resources
1. Have people familiar with the tasks make the estimate.
2. Use several people to make estimates.
3. Base estimates on normal conditions, efficient methods, and
a normal level of resources.
4. Use consistent time units in estimating task times.
5. Treat each task as independent, don’t aggregate.
6. Don’t make allowances for contingencies.
a future event or circumstance that is possible but cannot be
predicted with certainty, such as a natural disaster, or employee
theft
7. Adding a risk assessment helps avoid surprises
to stakeholders
stakeholders (các bên liên quan): project team, project
managers, executives, project sponsors, customers, and users
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5–8
4
Top-Down versus Bottom-Up Estimating
TABLE 5.1
5–9
5–10
5
Top-Down Approaches for Estimating Project
Times and Costs Project
• Consensus methods Estimate
Times
the pooled experience of senior and/or middle managers to estimate the
total project duration and cost; Costs
Ratio methods
Ref: https://xaydungso.vn/tu-van/chi-phi-xay-nha
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6
Ratio methods
13
FIGURE 5.1
5–14
7
Example: Function Point Count Method
TABLE 5.2
5–15
Given this count and the fact that 1 person-month has historically
been equal to 5 function points, the job will require 132 person
TABLE 5.3
months (660/5 = 132). 5–16
8
Learning curves
17
TABLE A5.1
5–18
9
Learning Curves Cumulative Values
TABLE A5.2
5–19
10
Template methods, Range estimates: Support
Cost Estimate Worksheet
FIGURE 5.2
5–21
• This approach begins with a top-down estimate for the project and then
refines estimates for phases of the project as it is implemented.
• Some projects by their nature cannot be rigorously defined because of
the uncertainty of design or the final product, such as construction
projects
• A detailed estimate is developed for the immediate phase and a macro
estimate is made for the remaining phases of the project. FIGURE 5.3
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11
Top-Down and Bottom-Up Estimates
FIGURE 5.4
5–23
Level of Detail
• Level of detail is different for different levels of management.
• Excessive detail is costly.
1. Fosters a focus on departmental outcomes
2. Creates unproductive paperwork
3. If the levelof the WBS is increased by one, the number of cost
accounts may increase geometrically.
• Insufficient detail is costly.
1. Lack of focus on goals
2. Wasted effort on nonessential activities
• Level of detail in the WBS varies with the complexity of the project.
WBS has built-in flexibility.
Participating organization units may expand their portion of
the structure to meet their special needs.
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12
Types of Costs
• Direct Costs
Costs that are clearly chargeable to a specific work
package.
– Labor, materials, equipment, and other
• Direct (Project) Overhead Costs
Fixed operating expenses that aren't linked to a product or
a service.
Costs incurred that are directly tied to an identifiable project
deliverable or work package.
– Salary, rents, supplies, specialized machinery
• General and Administrative Overhead Costs
Be organization costs that are not directly linked to a
specific project: advertising, accounting, and senior
management above the project level
5–25
FIGURE 5.5
5–26
13
Three Views of Cost
• Different
perceptions of
costs and
budgets vary
depending on
their users.
• The project
manager must
be very aware to
sett up the
project budget
and to
communicate
these differences
to others.
FIGURE 5.6
5–27
Refining Estimates
• Reasons for Adjusting Estimates
Interaction costs are hidden in estimates.
– the time necessary to coordinate activities is
typically not reflected in independent estimates
Normal conditions do not apply.
– Resource shortages, outsource certain tasks can
increase costs
Things go wrong on projects: Design flaws
Changes in project scope and plans.
• Adjusting Estimates
Time and cost estimates of specific activities are
adjusted as the risks, resources, and situation
particulars become more clearly defined.
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Creating a Database for Estimating
Saving historical
data—estimates and
actuals—provides a
knowledge base for
improving project
time and cost
estimating. FIGURE 5.7
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Key Terms
5–30
15
WBS Figure
TABLE 5.4
5–31
Assignment
32
16
3–33
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