ICY0006 Probability Theory and Statistics

Margarita Spit²akova

Department of Software Science

Tallinn University of Technology

2019/20 Fall semester

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margarita.spitsakova@ttu.ee Introduction 1 / 17
Contents

1 About this course

About statistics

Goals and learning outcomes

Literature

2 Arrangement

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Next section

1 About this course

About statistics

Goals and learning outcomes

Literature

2 Arrangement

ioc.pdf

margarita.spitsakova@ttu.ee Introduction 3 / 17
Next subsection

1 About this course

About statistics

Goals and learning outcomes

Literature

2 Arrangement

ioc.pdf

margarita.spitsakova@ttu.ee Introduction 4 / 17
What is Statistics?
Statistics is a discipline which is concerned with:
designing experiments and other data collection,
summarizing information to aid understanding,
drawing conclusions from data, and
estimating the present or predicting the future.
Statistics is an important tool for sciences:
medicine.
psychology,
education,
sociology,
engineering,
physics,
etc.
Statistics is extensively used in
business,
industry and
government.

It is very desirable to understand and practise statistical thinking.

NB! This is important even if you do not use statistical methods directly. ioc.pdf

margarita.spitsakova@ttu.ee Introduction 5 / 17
What is Statistics?
Statistics is a discipline which is concerned with:
designing experiments and other data collection,
summarizing information to aid understanding,
drawing conclusions from data, and
estimating the present or predicting the future.
Statistics is an important tool for sciences:
medicine.
psychology,
education,
sociology,
engineering,
physics,
etc.
Statistics is extensively used in
business,
industry and
government.

It is very desirable to understand and practise statistical thinking.

NB! This is important even if you do not use statistical methods directly. ioc.pdf

margarita.spitsakova@ttu.ee Introduction 5 / 17
Dictionary denition

Statistics [pl.noun, treated as sing.]

the practice or science of collecting and analyzing numerical data in large quanti-
ties, especially for the purpose of inferring proportions in a whole from those in a
representative sample.

Statistic [noun]
a fact or piece of data from a study of a large quantity of numerical data.
Example: the statistics show that the crime rate has increased.

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margarita.spitsakova@ttu.ee Introduction 6 / 17
Dictionary denition

Statistics [pl.noun, treated as sing.]

the practice or science of collecting and analyzing numerical data in large quanti-
ties, especially for the purpose of inferring proportions in a whole from those in a
representative sample.

Statistic [noun]
a fact or piece of data from a study of a large quantity of numerical data.
Example: the statistics show that the crime rate has increased.

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margarita.spitsakova@ttu.ee Introduction 6 / 17
What Are Statistics

Statistics include numerical facts and gures. For instance:

The largest earthquake measured 9.2 on the Richter scale.
Men are at least 10 times more likely than women to commit murder.
One in every 8 South Africans is HIV positive.
By the year 2020, there will be 15 people aged 65 and over for every new baby born.
Excerpt From: David Lane (Editor). Introduction to Statistics. iBooks.

However, statistics are not only facts and gures; they are something more than that.
In the broadest sense, "statistics" refers to a range of techniques and procedures for analysing,
interpreting, displaying, and making decisions based on data. (See examples on the following
slides.)

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What Are Statistics

Statistics include numerical facts and gures. For instance:

The largest earthquake measured 9.2 on the Richter scale.
Men are at least 10 times more likely than women to commit murder.
One in every 8 South Africans is HIV positive.
By the year 2020, there will be 15 people aged 65 and over for every new baby born.
Excerpt From: David Lane (Editor). Introduction to Statistics. iBooks.

However, statistics are not only facts and gures; they are something more than that.
In the broadest sense, "statistics" refers to a range of techniques and procedures for analysing,
interpreting, displaying, and making decisions based on data. (See examples on the following
slides.)

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margarita.spitsakova@ttu.ee Introduction 7 / 17
What Are Statistics

Example 1
A new advertisement for Ben and Jerry's ice cream introduced in late May of last year resulted
in a 30% increase in ice cream sales for the following three months. Thus, the advertisement
was eective.

A major aw is that ice cream consumption generally increases in summer regardless
of advertisements.

This eect is called a history eect and leads people to interpret outcomes as the
result of one variable when another variable is actually responsible.

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What Are Statistics

Example 1
A new advertisement for Ben and Jerry's ice cream introduced in late May of last year resulted
in a 30% increase in ice cream sales for the following three months. Thus, the advertisement
was eective.

A major aw is that ice cream consumption generally increases in summer regardless
of advertisements.

This eect is called a history eect and leads people to interpret outcomes as the
result of one variable when another variable is actually responsible.

ioc.pdf

margarita.spitsakova@ttu.ee Introduction 8 / 17
What Are Statistics

Example 2
The more churches in a city, the more crime there is. Thus, churches lead to crime.

Here, a aw is that both increased churches and increased crime rates can be explained
by larger populations. In bigger cities, there are both more churches and more crime.

This eect is called a third-variable problem. Namely, a third variable can cause both
situations; however, people erroneously believe that there is a causal relationship
between the two primary variables rather than recognize that a third variable can
cause both.

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margarita.spitsakova@ttu.ee Introduction 9 / 17
What Are Statistics

Example 2
The more churches in a city, the more crime there is. Thus, churches lead to crime.

Here, a aw is that both increased churches and increased crime rates can be explained
by larger populations. In bigger cities, there are both more churches and more crime.

This eect is called a third-variable problem. Namely, a third variable can cause both
situations; however, people erroneously believe that there is a causal relationship
between the two primary variables rather than recognize that a third variable can
cause both.

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Why to Study Statistics
Some examples of claims we can read/hear daily
Almost 85% of lung cancers in men and 45% in women are tobacco-related.
Condoms are eective 94% of the time.
Native Frenchmen are signicantly more likely to be hit crossing the street than are
Germans.
People tend to be more convincing when they look others directly in the eye and speak
loudly and quickly.
Women make 75 cents to every euro a man makes when they work the same job.
A surprising new study shows that eating egg whites can increase one's life span.
There is an 80% chance that in a room full of 30 people that at least two people will
share the same birthday. 79.48% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

Which claims above are true?

Many of the numbers in claims like above do not represent careful statistical analysis.
They can be misleading and push you into decisions that you might nd cause to regret.
For these reasons, learning about statistics is a long step towards taking control of your
life. ioc.pdf

margarita.spitsakova@ttu.ee Introduction 10 / 17
Why to Study Statistics
Some examples of claims we can read/hear daily
Almost 85% of lung cancers in men and 45% in women are tobacco-related.
Condoms are eective 94% of the time.
Native Frenchmen are signicantly more likely to be hit crossing the street than are
Germans.
People tend to be more convincing when they look others directly in the eye and speak
loudly and quickly.
Women make 75 cents to every euro a man makes when they work the same job.
A surprising new study shows that eating egg whites can increase one's life span.
There is an 80% chance that in a room full of 30 people that at least two people will
share the same birthday. 79.48% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

Which claims above are true?

Many of the numbers in claims like above do not represent careful statistical analysis.
They can be misleading and push you into decisions that you might nd cause to regret.
For these reasons, learning about statistics is a long step towards taking control of your
life. ioc.pdf

margarita.spitsakova@ttu.ee Introduction 10 / 17
Next subsection

1 About this course

About statistics

Goals and learning outcomes

Literature

2 Arrangement

ioc.pdf

margarita.spitsakova@ttu.ee Introduction 11 / 17
Course objectives
This course is designed to give students a working knowledge and understanding of descriptive
and inferential statistics and how statistics is applied in the sciences, social sciences, and
business. The following topics will be covered:
1 Descriptive Statistics
2 Probability
3 Probability Distributions
4 Estimation and Tests of Hypotheses for One Population
5 Estimation and Tests of Hypotheses for Two or More Populations
6 Bivariate Analysis

to develop skills in presenting quantitative data using appropriate displays, tabulations and
summaries,
to appreciate the nature of sampling variation and the role of statistical methods in
quantifying variation, setting condence limits, and testing hypotheses,
to select and use appropriate statistical methods in the analysis of simple datasets and
apply them using a standard statistical software (from the set R, SPSS, Excel etc.),
to understand and interpret output from statistical analyses,
to present ndings based on statistical analysis in a clear, concise and understandable
manner. ioc.pdf

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Course objectives

On completion of the course you are expected:

to develop skills in presenting quantitative data using appropriate displays, tabulations and
summaries,
to appreciate the nature of sampling variation and the role of statistical methods in
quantifying variation, setting condence limits, and testing hypotheses,
to select and use appropriate statistical methods in the analysis of simple datasets and
apply them using a standard statistical software (from the set R, SPSS, Excel etc.),
to understand and interpret output from statistical analyses,
to present ndings based on statistical analysis in a clear, concise and understandable
manner.

ioc.pdf

margarita.spitsakova@ttu.ee Introduction 12 / 17
Course objectives

On completion of the course you are expected:

to develop skills in presenting quantitative data using appropriate displays, tabulations and
summaries,
to appreciate the nature of sampling variation and the role of statistical methods in
quantifying variation, setting condence limits, and testing hypotheses,
to select and use appropriate statistical methods in the analysis of simple datasets and
apply them using a standard statistical software (from the set R, SPSS, Excel etc.),
to understand and interpret output from statistical analyses,
to present ndings based on statistical analysis in a clear, concise and understandable
manner.

ioc.pdf

margarita.spitsakova@ttu.ee Introduction 12 / 17
Course objectives

On completion of the course you are expected:

to develop skills in presenting quantitative data using appropriate displays, tabulations and
summaries,
to appreciate the nature of sampling variation and the role of statistical methods in
quantifying variation, setting condence limits, and testing hypotheses,
to select and use appropriate statistical methods in the analysis of simple datasets and
apply them using a standard statistical software (from the set R, SPSS, Excel etc.),
to understand and interpret output from statistical analyses,
to present ndings based on statistical analysis in a clear, concise and understandable
manner.

ioc.pdf

margarita.spitsakova@ttu.ee Introduction 12 / 17
Course objectives

On completion of the course you are expected:

to develop skills in presenting quantitative data using appropriate displays, tabulations and
summaries,
to appreciate the nature of sampling variation and the role of statistical methods in
quantifying variation, setting condence limits, and testing hypotheses,
to select and use appropriate statistical methods in the analysis of simple datasets and
apply them using a standard statistical software (from the set R, SPSS, Excel etc.),
to understand and interpret output from statistical analyses,
to present ndings based on statistical analysis in a clear, concise and understandable
manner.

ioc.pdf

margarita.spitsakova@ttu.ee Introduction 12 / 17
Course objectives

On completion of the course you are expected:

to develop skills in presenting quantitative data using appropriate displays, tabulations and
summaries,
to appreciate the nature of sampling variation and the role of statistical methods in
quantifying variation, setting condence limits, and testing hypotheses,
to select and use appropriate statistical methods in the analysis of simple datasets and
apply them using a standard statistical software (from the set R, SPSS, Excel etc.),
to understand and interpret output from statistical analyses,
to present ndings based on statistical analysis in a clear, concise and understandable
manner.

ioc.pdf

margarita.spitsakova@ttu.ee Introduction 12 / 17
Next subsection

1 About this course

About statistics

Goals and learning outcomes

Literature

2 Arrangement

ioc.pdf

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Study material

Primary material:
David M. Lane (primary author and editor) et al.
Introduction to Statistics., Rice University, University of Houston Clear Lake, and Tufts
University, Web Version (2.0).
http://onlinestatbook.com/Online_Statistics_Education.pdf
Web page of the course;
http://cs.ioc.ee/ITKStat/

ioc.pdf

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Study material

Primary material:
David M. Lane (primary author and editor) et al.
Introduction to Statistics., Rice University, University of Houston Clear Lake, and Tufts
University, Web Version (2.0).
http://onlinestatbook.com/Online_Statistics_Education.pdf
Web page of the course;
http://cs.ioc.ee/ITKStat/

Additional material:
B. C. Bruce.
Introductory Statistics and Analytics: A Resampling Perspective., John Wiley & Sons,
2014.
ISBN 9781118881354
Richard D. De Veaux.
Intro Stats, (4th ed.). Pearson, 2012
ISBN 978-0321825278.

ioc.pdf

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Next section

1 About this course

About statistics

Goals and learning outcomes

Literature

2 Arrangement

ioc.pdf

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Contact

Instructor: Margarita Spit²akova

e-mail: margarita.spitsakova@taltech.ee

Course web site:

http://cs.ioc.ee/ITKStat/

Slack:
http://itkstat.slack.com/

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