Module 4: Paper

Arizona State University

OGL 321
 In Module 4, we are presented with a comprehensive guide on how to approach the topic

of uncertainty in project management. The readings offer a comprehensive understanding of the

various factors involved in addressing uncertainty and provide us with knowledge-based

techniques for working through it. The module covers the fundamentals of uncertainty and

breaks it down to its core definition, helping us gain a better understanding of the concept.

Additionally, the module includes two blog posts that offer further insight into the specific

elements of managing uncertainty in project management. These blog posts provide us with a

deeper understanding of the topic, allowing us to approach uncertainty with a greater level of

confidence and competence. The specifics of the content covered in the readings and blog posts

will be outlined below, providing us with a comprehensive understanding of how to manage

uncertainty in project management.

After examining the reading materials and blog options, I decided to reflect on my

personal experiences with uncertainty in my work. I work in the finance industry where we

handle 20-30 project setups a month during the off season and double that amount during our

peak season. Managing uncertainty is a crucial part of each project. For instance, some clients

follow the standard policies for their project codes, but others may receive special permission to

deviate from them. This creates a lot of uncertainty for me as I may need to tackle various

challenges while assisting a team. Throughout the reading, I recognized my own tendency

towards Faulty Pattern Recognition. The text states that due to superficial similarities, we often

mistakenly think a new situation is similar to a problem we have faced before. In my experience,

I have come across many challenging situations in my project setups and out of habit, I tend to

assume that one setup is similar to another in terms of uncertainty. However, the text reminds us
that relying on our prior experiences and knowledge can lead us to overlook potential challenges

and not fully consider the uniqueness of each situation. Furthermore, through my project work, I

have honed my analytical skills and become a better listener for questions. I view myself as a

valuable resource for project teams and as the text points out, common experience shows that we

can't find answers until we truly understand the question. This idea ties in with my tendency to

presume I know what uncertainties to expect while working with project teams and anticipate the

questions they may have about the project setup. However, this approach may lead me to

overlook the actual questions requiring answers. The text instructs us to reframe the problem in

order to be better equipped to handle any uncertainties that may arise. Additionally, as a project

manager, it's crucial to remain open to the possibility of uncertainties even in situations where

one may feel confident in their problem-solving abilities. I have always recognized the

significance of decision-making, but haven't given it as much attention in my studies. After

participating in the Harvard Simulations, I realized how greatly a project's success or failure can

depend on the decisions made by a project manager. Despite having ideal resources, schedule,

and budget, a project manager's failure to carefully consider the consequences of their decisions

can result in project failure, including uncertainty. This is especially prevalent during times of

turmoil within the team. As Sarah Hoban discusses in her blog post "Leading Through Crisis,"

both workers and leaders have had to adapt to new challenges and ways of working. From her

writing, I learned that the project manager bears the ultimate responsibility of managing

uncertainty within the team. The leader must not only communicate changes to the team, but also

develop a strategy to address uncertainty and resolve any staff issues. In Harvard Simulation C,

upper management unexpectedly moved up the deadline by 5 weeks. As the project manager in

the simulation, I had to balance keeping the team motivated and meeting management
expectations. I believe that as a manager in any industry or role, one is driven by results and

tends to have higher expectations to deliver for upper management or clients, often leading to a

narrow focus on data and outcomes. However, the simulations have shown me that as a project

manager, it's important to be aware of and responsive to the well-being of the team. Without the

team, the work cannot be completed and expectations from management cannot be met. In

addition to decision-making, Project Management Tips also provided ways to track decisions

made throughout the project. The article "Lessons Learned: Start at the Beginning" emphasized

that every project is unique, but proper tracking can help identify similarities between past and

current projects. Quigley and Lauck stated that "documenting lessons learned can help minimize

the number of repeated mistakes or oversights." (2021). I found this to be particularly important

in this course and the simulations. As I progress through the semester and each Harvard

simulation, I have been keeping a record of the decisions I make and their outcomes. By

documenting these decisions, I can refer back to them for future simulations.

The resources in module four provide guidance on handling uncertainty and decision-

making in project management. I was previously aware of the impact of decisions on a project

but lacked an understanding of the challenges a project manager faces in balancing decisions for

their team and the project's success. The role of a project manager in the Harvard simulation, as

well as in real projects, involves following senior management guidelines while also making

staffing decisions. To be successful, I need to continue documenting decisions and their

outcomes, be aware of the various uncertainties that may arise during the project, and not make

assumptions that challenges will be the same or that past success guarantees future success.
References

Cleden, David. Managing Project Uncertainty, Taylor & Francis Group, 2016. ProQuest Ebook

Central, http://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/asulib-ebooks/detail.action?docID=438596.

Created from asulib-ebooks on 2022-11-06 20:22:13.

Hoban, Sarah. “Leading through Crisis.” Sarah M. Hoban, 15 May 2022,

https://www.sarahmhoban.com/blog/leading-through-crisis. Accessed 6 Nov. 2022.

Landau, Peter, et al. “ProjectManager Blog Archives.” ProjectManager, 16 Sept. 2022,

https://www.projectmanager.com/blog/page/3.