Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Scientific American 2023-10
Scientific American 2023-10
Scientific American 2023-10
Help Us Talk
to Animals
New Origins
of Wine
The Geoengineering
Gamble Begins
Will Humans
Ever Live
in Space?
Here’s what it would take
to leave planet Earth
OCTOBER 2023
SCIENTIFICAMERICAN.COM
CONTENTS
OCTOBER 2023 VOLUME 329, NUMBER 3
44
52 FORUM
Life on Earth could be exceptional or
completely mundane. The universe can
help us understand this. BY MARIO LIVIO
53 THE SCIENCE OF HEALTH
How to figure out if moderate alcohol
drinking is too risky for you.
BY LYDIA DENWORTH
54 MIND MATTERS
To stay sharp as you age, learn new skills.
BY RACHEL WU AND
JESSICA A. CHURCH
56 THE UNIVERSE
Astronomers should broaden their
conception of a habitable zone for
livable planets. BY PHIL PLAIT
60 Q&A
An actor-turned-astrophysicist discusses
her work, her life and her unusual career
path. BY REBECCA BOYLE
62 OBSERVATORY
Give Rosalind Franklin a Nobel.
BY NAOMI ORESKES
8
63 METER
An artificial intelligence writes poetry for
the “meat-brains.” BY JONATHAN KATZ
64 REVIEWS
An AI psychological thriller. Nature’s
Scientific American (ISSN 0036-8733), Volume 329, Number 3, October 2023, published monthly, except for a July/August issue, by Scientific
seductive poisons. Evolution and the American, a division of Springer Nature America, Inc., 1 New York Plaza, Suite 4600, New York, N.Y. 10004-1562. Periodicals postage paid at New
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America, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Scientific American is part of Springer Nature, which owns or has commercial relations with thousands of scientific publications (many of them
68 HISTORY can be found at www.springernature.com/us). Scientific American maintains a strict policy of editorial independence in reporting developments
BY MARK FISCHETTI in science to our readers. Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
2 SC I E N T I F IC A M ER IC A N OC TOBER 2 02 3
© 2023 Scientific American
FROM THE EDITOR
Introducing the big podcast platforms. We’ve hired some brilliant editorial staff-
ers to increase the number of news, commentary, graphics, multi-
media and feature stories we publish online. Thank you for your sup-
Our Redesign port of Scientific American in whatever forms you enjoy our work.
In our cover story, we ask (and pretty much answer) whether
humans can ever live off-planet. It’s fascinating to think about all
the ways our bodies and minds are adapted to life on Earth. On
page 22 science journalist Sarah Scoles introduces us to “analog
OU MAY HAVE noticed we have a new logo. How do you astronauts” who participate in mock space missions and the sci-
BOARD OF ADVISERS
Robin E. Bell Rita Colwell Jennifer A. Francis Hopi E. Hoekstra John Maeda Martin Rees
Research Professor, Lamont- Distinguished University Senior Scientist and Acting Alexander Agassiz Professor Chief Technology Officer, Astronomer Royal and Professor
Doherty Earth Observatory, Professor, University of Deputy Director, Woodwell of Zoology and Curator of Everbridge of Cosmology and Astrophysics,
Columbia University Maryland College Park and Climate Research Center Mammals, Museum of Satyajit Mayor Institute of Astronomy,
Emery N. Brown Johns Hopkins Bloomberg Carlos Gershenson Comparative Zoology, Senior Professor, University of Cambridge
Edward Hood Taplin Professor School of Public Health Research Professor, National Harvard University National Center for Biological Daniela Rus
of Medical Engineering and of Kate Crawford Autonomous University of Ayana Elizabeth Johnson Sciences, Tata Institute Andrew (1956) and Erna Viterbi
Computational Neuroscience, Research Professor, University Mexico and Visiting Scholar, Co-founder, Urban Ocean Lab, of Fundamental Research Professor of Electrical
M.I.T., and Warren M. Zapol of Southern California Santa Fe Institute and Co-founder, The All We Can John P. Moore Engineering and Computer
Professor of Anesthesia, Annenberg, and Co-founder, Alison Gopnik Save Project Professor of Microbiology and Science and Director,
Harvard Medical School AI Now Institute, Professor of Psychology and Christof Koch Immunology, Weill Medical CSAIL, M.I.T.
Vinton G. Cerf New York University Affiliate Professor of Chief Scientist, MindScope College of Cornell University Meg Urry
Chief Internet Evangelist, Nita A. Farahany Philosophy, University Program, Allen Institute for Priyamvada Natarajan Israel Munson Professor of
Google Professor of Law and of California, Berkeley Brain Science Professor of Astronomy and Physics and Astronomy and
Emmanuelle Charpentier Philosophy, Director, Duke Lene Vestergaard Hau Meg Lowman Physics, Yale University Director, Yale Center for
Scientific Director, Max Planck Initiative for Science & Society, Mallinckrodt Professor of Director and Founder, TREE Donna J. Nelson Astronomy and Astrophysics
Institute for Infection Biology, Duke University Physics and of Applied Physics, Foundation, Rachel Carson Professor of Chemistry, Amie Wilkinson
and Founding and Acting Jonathan Foley Harvard University Fellow, Ludwig Maximilian University of Oklahoma Professor of Mathematics,
Director, Max Planck Unit for Executive Director, University Munich, and Lisa Randall University of Chicago
the Science of Pathogens Project Drawdown Research Professor, University Professor of Physics,
of Science Malaysia Harvard University
4 SC I E N T I F IC A M ER IC A N OC TOBER 2 02 3
© 2023 Scientific American
CONTRIBUTORS
FRANCESCO FRANCHI
WINE’S TRUE ORIGINS,
PAGE 38
Graphics designer and journal-
ist Francesco Franchi occa-
sionally drinks wine—but only
the good stuff. He’s more inter-
ested in cycling the hills around
Milan, Italy, where he lives. The
story of the grapes we turn into
wine stretches back across the
SARAH SCOLES entirety of human history, so
WHY WE’LL NEVER Franchi’s first task for devising
LIVE IN SPACE, a graphic on their 200,000-
PAGE 22 year, continent-spanning evo-
Would you take a one-way trip lution was to connect time and
to Mars? “This used to be space on the page, he says.
one of my favorite questions “What I like most is to try to
to liven up a dinner party,” says develop stories merging differ-
journalist Sarah Scoles, a fre- ent languages,” using precise
quent contributor to Scientific combinations of illustration,
American, who has written two photography, data and text,
books about the search for he says. “You have to show
extraterrestrial intelligence. the relationship, the cause
When Scoles was a bit younger and effect.”
and less risk-averse, her
TAVIS COBURN
answer was always yes. Scoles
COVER OF SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN LOIS PARSHLEY
lives in rural Colorado and
Space travel and sci-fi have always captured Tavis Coburn’s imagi- TALKING WITH ANIMALS,
enjoys “a little bit of suffering”
nation. A child of the 80s, he grew up on Star Wars, popular sci- PAGE 44
in her outdoor adventures. But
ence magazines and comic books. Now as a digital artist based in It all began with a mated pair
it’s unlikely that Martian colo-
Toronto (self-portrait above), he paints possible futures with the of Sandhill Cranes nesting in
nies will be seeking intrepid
retro feel of decades past. Recently, while illustrating a new ver- the backyard. “We shared our
volunteers any time soon, she
sion of The Right Stuff (Tom Wolfe’s 1979 book about the pilots mornings out on my deck,”
writes in this month’s cover
who became astronauts for the U.S.’s first human spaceflight), says Lois Parshley, an investi-
story. By immersing herself in
Coburn reflected on the audacity of the first space missions. gative journalist. One morning
an “analog astronaut” conven-
“The fact that they got those guys up in the air and back with slide the cranes both began call-
tion at Biosphere 2 in Arizona
rulers and compasses and math in their heads—it’s a pretty ing—“it was a startlingly loud
and speaking with experts in
astounding feat,” he says. For the cover of this month’s Scientific noise”—for minutes at a time.
the field, she grappled with the
American, Coburn turned his eye to the future of space travel, Then they flew away and never
massive biological, technologi-
imagining the lives of the first humans to settle down off-world. returned. The mystery of what
cal and political problems fac-
He sought to contrast advanced technology with the banal monot- Parshley had witnessed
ing humanity’s future in space.
ony of daily life. “Even though the new planet offers awe-inspiring launched her into a feature
In the face of galactic optimism,
vistas, memories of Earth flood the settlers’ minds every day.” story about decoding animal
she says, it’s easy to forget just
communication. Nowadays
how big these hurdles are—
the field is all about artificial
and that we have “no guarantee
intelligence; it’s hard to find
that there’s the motivation or
researchers who aren’t using it,
ability to actually solve them.”
she says. As scientists collect
terabytes on terabytes of
whale clicks and crow caws,
they’re hoping that deep learn-
ing can find patterns and
meaning in the sounds that
human beings have always
missed. “It’s a huge open
“One of my favorite questions to liven up door,” Parshley says, leading
to captivating questions that
a dinner party used to be: Would you may change our understanding
of how animals experience
take a one-way trip to Mars?” the world.
—Sarah Scoles
Illustration by Tavis Coburn OC TOBER 2 02 3 SC I E N T I F IC A M ER IC A N.COM 5
© 2023 Scientific American
LETTERS
EDITORS@SCIAM.COM
As I read of the multiplicity of projects ex- Politicians can lie by speaking the truth
perimenting with living tissues in Ball’s in a way that misleads. They’ve told us
article, I realized that this is the comple- Social Security (SS) benefits will need
May 2023
mentary situation to that of engineers to be cut by 2034 because the SS trust
“playing around” with artificial intelli- funds will reach a dangerous low. They
gence. Both groups have little idea of what me that these factors may have further con- claim it’s a difficult problem.
will emerge from their activities and how temporary analogues in such accusations If nothing changes in the SS program,
it will affect the rest of us. as “pizzagate,” the conspiracy theory that its reserves will be depleted by 2034. But
ARNOLD BANNER VIA E-MAIL falsely claimed Hillary Clinton and other raising the annual wage-base increase by
high-ranking Democrats operated a secret a small amount would fix that. Who ben-
PERSECUTION PARALLELS child-sex-trafficking ring. efits by not solving this problem? People
“Witch Hunts,” by Silvia Federici and Alice Most of the triggers for this kind of earning much more than the SS wage cap.
Markham-Cantor, is a brilliant history charge appear to be present in pizzagate: EMANUEL V. POLIZZI MACUNGIE, PA.
of this horrifying and continuing assault There is widespread conspiratorial ru-
against mostly women that often accom- mormongering. There are threatened ORESKES REPLIES: In my column, I did
panies economic upheaval. The Supreme white males, who are often economically not say that all was well with the U.S. So-
Court’s decision to overturn the national marginalized and facing alleged “replace- cial Security system. As several letter writ-
right to an abortion has released what ment” by nonwhite people, as well as de- ers noted, demographic changes demand
amounts to another contemporary “witch motion from favored patriarchal hege- adjustments to the system. My point was
hunt” that targets women who seek this mony by feminism and increased influ- that the required changes are not dramatic,
procedure and the medical practitioners ence of women in politics and business. but some people are exaggerating them be-
who perform it. In many states, these And there is even a quasireligious element cause their antigovernment ideoloy leads
women and professionals are subject to with the false claim that Clinton and her them to look for an excuse to dismantle an
arrest and, for the latter, disbarment from acolytes performed “Satanism.” extremely effective program.
their medical profession. Women travel I think that many similar modern in- Ray is right that the numbers look large,
to other states for an abortion, and those dictments of what amounts to female and when taken out of context, they are
who help them are also subject to arrest. witchcraft could easily be found. frightening. But as any modeler or manager
I wish the authors had included this GERALD A. DONALDSON SOUTHPORT, N.C. can tell you, in large systems, small changes
present outrage in their article. Consider- can have large effects, especially over time.
ing the current amount of gun violence, SOLVENT SECURITY As Polizzi notes, the looming shortfall could
I suspect this country will soon see more “Social Security and Science,” by Naomi be fixed with a small change in the wage
murders of women who want to or do Oreskes [Observatory], asserts that base—the level at which workers stop pay-
have an abortion and of professionals “Social Security isn’t a drain on the federal ing Social Security tax on their income.
who perform the procedure. budget; it pays for itself through a dedi- This last point highlights an odd feature
JIM BOTTA DELMAR, N.Y.
Some of the causative factors at play in cen- “The Supreme Court’s decision to overturn
turies of accusations of female witchcraft
include economic hardship and disloca- the national right to an abortion has released
tion, the need for an alien scapegoat, or another contemporary ‘witch hunt’ that targets
“other,” and a strongly patriarchal social
structure. While I was reading Federici and
women who seek this procedure.”
Markham-Cantor’s analysis, it occurred to JIM BOTTA DELMAR, N.Y.
6 SC I E N T I F IC A M ER IC A N OC TOBER 2 02 3
© 2023 Scientific American
®
ESTABLISHED 1845
of the system. Most of our taxes keep in- EDITOR IN CHIEF Laura Helmuth
creasing as our income increases. But with MANAGING EDITOR Jeanna Bryner COPY DIRECTOR Maria-Christina Keller CREATIVE DIRECTOR Michael Mrak
ASTROPHYSICS
Out with
a Bang
A nearby supernova gives
stunning details of a
dying star’s last days
al Gemini Observatory in Hawaii and the England had studied the galaxy in the ear- es in on itself and explosively ejects its out-
Lick Observatory in California. ly 2010s using new and archival images er layers after they bounce off its durable
Itagaki had seemingly seen the super- from the Hubble Space Telescope. By core, leaving behind a neutron star or a
NOIRLab/NSF/AURA
nova erupting within the Pinwheel Galaxy, zooming in on those archival images, black hole. Red supergiants can grow puffy
also called M101—an initial assessment Pledger managed to identify the exact star late in life and blow off shells of gas and
that follow-up observations confirmed. that had exploded. dust from their outer atmosphere before
From there astrophysicists wanted to The star was a red supergiant about 420 they explode. When the supernova even-
8 SC I E N T I F IC A M ER IC A N OC TOBER 2 02 3
© 2023 Scientific American
tually erupts, it expands outward and mass in the years before the explosion. Azalee Bostroem of the University of Ari-
crashes into those lingering shells, pro- That’s actually “more than we would ex- zona, who has co-authored multiple stud-
ducing a discernible shock wave, which pect from a red supergiant star,” Jacob- ies of 2023ixf. “And it’s telling us a little bit
teams of astronomers detected coming son-Galán says. “It points, maybe, to our about which stars explode as which type of
from 2023ixf. “It’s not the first time we’ve ignorance about how red supergiants supernovae.” Researchers also want to
seen this happen,” Hosseinzadeh says. evolve and die in the last few years before know where the bright burst of energy
“But the detail has never been this good.” [their] explosion.” seen during a supernova comes from—
From those observations, Wynn Jacob- Red supergiants’ dying days are crucial whether it’s entirely from the explosion or
son-Galán of the University of California, for understanding how supernovae enrich partly from the impact of the supernova
Berkeley, and his colleagues calculated galaxies. How these stars lose mass “has a shock wave on the surrounding debris.
that the star lost almost 1 percent of its big influence on how galaxies evolve,” says “All these things are linked with how much
material is left on the star when it ex- Berkeley. The exploding star’s ejecta then tion’s National Optical-Infrared Astrono-
plodes,” Bostroem says. expands in an hourglass shape as it im- my Research Laboratory and her col-
Supernova 2023ixf has also given as- pacts this disk. The varied orientations of leagues showed that the star had substan-
trophysicists their earliest-ever detailed debris disks with respect to their explod- tially swelled and shrunk in size over a
glimpse of the intricate interactions be- ing host star suggest a surprising number period of about 1,000 days before burst-
tween a supernova’s shock wave and the of ways that type II supernovae can evolve. ing. Red supergiants are known to pulsate
material the star had previously shed. “It tells you that these events are diverse,” in this way in the denouement of their life;
Specifically, scientists had debated wheth- Vasylyev says. take Betelgeuse, a red supergiant in the
er the ejected gas and dust would form The nearby supernova could also help constellation Orion, which has been flick-
a sphere or some more asymmetrical scientists predict when other red supergi- ering dramatically in recent years.
shape—such as a flattened disk—around ants will explode. Before 2023ixf went su- Astrophysicists consider these fluctua-
the star. The results for 2023ixf suggest pernova, it had been pulsating. Monika tions to be a murky omen of an eventual
the latter, says Sergiy Vasylyev of U.C. Soraisam of the National Science Founda- explosion, but theoretically a star’s pulsa-
ANIMAL BEHAVIOR
A Hell
of a Meal
Why giant salamanders
just keep eating their young
commonly because of whole-clutch canni- Deforestation of the salamanders’ protections around streams will take de-
balism: the male had gobbled up hundreds woodland habitat may be to blame, the cades, Hopkins says. In the short term, con-
of eggs. These cannibal dads had bulging study findings suggest. Whole-clutch can- servationists could keep the numbers up by
bellies and a tendency to regurgitate the nibalism was three times more common in rearing hellbender larvae for release and
eggs when handled, the team reported in areas with low upstream forest cover than avoiding this danger at the nest.
the American Naturalist. in those with greater coverage. Vegetation —Carolyn Wilke
10 SC I E N T I F IC A M ER IC A N OC TOBER 2 02 3
© 2023 Scientific American
In Reason
tions should have nothing to do with its go- Short of seeing a supernova in our own
We Trust
ing supernova. The two phenomena are galaxy—every modern astronomer’s
caused by “totally different” mechanisms, dream—this bright, brief spectacle in the
Soraisam says. Yet such instabilities re- Pinwheel Galaxy may be the best opportu-
main poorly understood, leaving the pos- nity for many years to come to test current
sibility that there may indeed be some models for type II supernovae and to bet-
kind of link. “That’s the intriguing thing ter see the creative destruction unleashed
about 2023ixf,” Soraisam says. “Very close on the cosmos. “This is being studied in
to the explosion, we are still seeing very such detail and with such precision,” Ja-
regular variability.” If scientists can deter- cobson-Galán says. “It really is going to be
mine a link between the size shifts and the one of the best-studied supernovae of the
explosion, it could help them predict when 21st century.”
other red supergiant stars will explode. —Jonathan O’Callaghan Christian nationalists have declared
war on our public schools. They’re:
• Banning books and sex education
• Passing “Don’t Say Gay” laws
their various monomers tend to separate
Linked Up A new from one another like oil and water.
• Funneling millions of tax dollars to
unaccountable religious schools
process recycles The new process solves this problem by
adding chemicals called universal dynamic
Color shows
underground
temperature
(degrees
Celsius)
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
CLIMATE CHANGE shows how underground hotspots may ly affected. “For a lot of things in the sub-
threaten the very same structures that surface, it’s kind of ‘out of sight, out of
Weather emit the heat in the first place: the tem-
perature changes can make the ground ex-
mind,’” says Grant Ferguson, an engineer-
ing geologist at the University of Saskatch-
Underground
Alessandro F. Rotta Loria (temperature data); OpenStreetMap (base map) (CC BY-SA 2.0)
pand and contract enough to cause dam- ewan, who wasn’t involved in the new
age. “Without [anyone] realizing it, the study. But the underground world teems
Warming underneath city of Chicago’s downtown was deform- with living things that have adapted to
ing,” says study author Alessandro F. Rot- subterranean existence, such as worms,
cities is weakening buildings ta Loria, a civil and environmental engi- snails, insects, crustaceans and salaman-
in slow motion neer at Northwestern University. ders. These creatures are used to “very
The findings expose a “silent hazard” static conditions,” says Peter Bayer, a geo-
CITY STREETS, SIDEWALKS and roofs all for civil infrastructure in cities with softer scientist at Germany’s Martin Luther Uni-
absorb heat, making some urban zones up ground—especially those near water— versity Halle-Wittenberg, who was also
to six degrees Fahrenheit hotter than rural Rotta Loria says. “There might have been not involved in the new study. Above-
ones during the day—and 22 degrees F structural issues caused by this under- ground temperatures often swing wildly
hotter at night. These “urban heat islands” ground climate change that happened, and throughout the year, but the subsurface
can creep underground as city heat diffuses we didn’t even realize it,” he adds. Although should naturally hover around the local
downward, and basements, subway tun- it’s not an immediate danger to human annual average, he explains. In Chicago,
nels and other subterranean infrastructure lives, this previously unknown effect shows that’s about 52 degrees F.
also constantly radiate warmth into the the impacts of a lesser-known component The subsurface has “a memory that air
surrounding earth. That underground of climate change. The findings were pub- temperatures don’t have,” Ferguson says.
heat is building up as the planet warms. lished in Communications Engineering. As these once stable temperatures rise be-
A new study of downtown Chicago Humans aren’t the only ones potential- cause of climate change and urban devel-
1 2 SC I E N T I F IC A M ER IC A N OC TOBER 2 02 3
© 2023 Scientific American
“We could basically ings to tilt. In recent decades this hidden
with either alone up to 1,000 times more bacteria in the biofilm than vinegar alone and
up to 100,000 times more than honey alone.
Oxymel could be particularly valuable for chronic wound infec-
Honey and vinegar, a traditional medicinal combina- tions, the researchers say. These long-lived skin lesions are common
MEDICINE
tion known as oxymel, dates to the ancient world. in people with diabetes or burn trauma, and they often contain orga-
Apothecaries in the Middle Ages sold it, Hippocrates prescribed it nized colonies of stubbornly antibiotic-resistant bacteria. It is esti-
and the physician-philosopher Ibn-Sīnā extolled its virtues. Today mated that 1 to 2 percent of the population in developed countries will
such a mixture sounds likelier to dress a salad than a lesion—but experience a chronic wound during their lifetime, and the rate appears
with antibiotic-resistant bacteria on the rise, scientists are eagerly to be increasing as diabetes becomes more common.
seeking new ways to fight intransigent infections. Now a study in “Chronic wounds are a huge burden on the health-care system,”
Microbiology suggests oxymel may indeed help. says Andrew Vardanian, a plastic surgeon at UCLA Health, who spe-
“In modern medicine both honey and acetic acid are used individ- cializes in complex wounds. “We need alternatives because some
ually to treat infected wounds,” but they are typically not combined, treatments don’t work for certain patients.” Additionally, long-term
says study co-author Erin Connelly, an interdisciplinary researcher antibiotic use on a stubborn infection can make the bacteria more
at the University of Warwick in England, who studies the antimicro- drug-resistant. Oxymel would also be much cheaper than existing
bial properties of historic remedies. Honey stresses bacteria and infection treatments, Vardanian explains.
fights infections with its high sugar content and acidity. Similarly, Next the researchers plan to investigate why the combination of
vinegar’s active component, acetic acid, is a natural antiseptic that honey and vinegar works better than either alone, which remains a
breaks down bacterial DNA and proteins. mystery for now. If oxymel proves successful in treating humans, this
Neither compound is particularly effective alone, Connelly and her inexpensive old remedy would be an important addition to the arse-
team found. The researchers applied low doses of honey and acetic nal for fighting resistant infections. —Leo DeLuca
14 SC I E N T I F IC A M ER IC A N OC TOBER 2 02 3
© 2023 Scientific American
Power Trips says Mark Hebblewhite, a habitat ecologist
at the University of Montana, who was not
Expertise.
Tough new wildlife involved with the new work. The proof-of-
concept kinetic tracker works by means of Insights.
tracker runs on a magnetic pendulum that swings around a
copper coil, generating electricity as the Illumination.
animal power tagged animal moves. The dogs and bison in
the study were active enough to create the Choose the subscription
energy to transmit one location ping per day that’s right for you.
To study the behavior of for 14 days and 17 days, respectively. One of
CONSERVATION
elusive animals, scien- the wild pony’s trackers lasted at least 146 PRINT
tists routinely tag them with GPS location days but didn’t produce enough power for DIGITAL
trackers. But such devices’ battery capacity daily transmissions, the researchers report- 170+ YEAR ARCHIVE
limits how long they operate, often bringing ed in PLOS ONE.
an early end to vital conservation work. The limited power generated by the ani-
Solar-powered trackers break easily, mals’ movements means the technology Scan to learn more
making them a poor choice for devices isn’t ready for prime time just yet, says ecol-
strapped to larger mammals—and they ogist Emily Studd of British Columbia’s
don’t work for nocturnal creatures. So biol- Thompson Rivers University, who wasn’t in-
ogist Rasmus Worsøe Havmøller of the Uni- volved in the study. When researchers want
versity of Copenhagen and his colleagues to keep close tabs on animals, they often
turned to another abundant power source: need GPS fixes more than once a day. But
kinetic energy generated by an animal’s Studd says that “with a bit more develop-
movements. Their kinetic tracker, which ment, this could be a game changer for wild-
Havmøller’s team recently tested on do- life animal research and monitoring.”
mestic dogs, a wild pony and a European bi- Havmøller and his colleagues hope con-
son, could theoretically survive for the en- servation workers can one day use this
tire life span of an active animal. It is also technology to track species such as tigers,
lighter and cheaper to make than its bat- leopards and wolves, which can easily de-
tery-powered counterparts. stroy solar-powered trackers—and which
The design “is ingenious and exciting,” hunt and travel at night. —Rachel Crowell
M. K. Ranjitsinh/Science Source
MATERIALS SCIENCE
Fireproof
Fungi
Mycelium sheets could
keep buildings from burning
burn, then that stops the fire,” says Chris mercial buildings, which can produce car- waste it leaves behind is compostable.
Hobbs, a polymer chemist at Sam Houston bon monoxide and other toxic products “If the product reaches the end of its
State University in Texas, who was not in- when it combusts. life, you can just chuck that mycelium in
volved in the new study but says he consid- The RMIT team has been reaching out your garden,” Kandare says. “Just toss it
ers the material promising. to mushroom farmers to see whether they in the green beans.”
Scientists have known about myceli- could scale the technology for commer- —Timmy Broderick
16 SC I E N T I F IC A M ER IC A N OC TOBER 2 02 3
© 2023 Scientific American
made of pure collagen extracted from the
Fish Eye Collagen fish skin.
NEWS AROUND THE WORLD
beasts evolved powered flight thanks to among the most important. This tissue study. This fusion makes the wings resilient
specialized membranes called patagia con- takes on a variety of shapes in different bat enough for powered flight, Feigin says; sim-
necting their limbs and digits to the rest of species, tending to be broader in fruit-eat- ilar, weaker membranes in other airborne
their body. A new study of bat embryos in ing species and narrower in ones that hunt mammals limit them to gliding. A chance
BMC Bioloy reveals a crucial step in how flying insects. To detect whether these mutation might have been the key that
these once land-bound animals evolved shapes came from an ancestral bat wing or opened the sky to bats. —Riley Black
can control every finger design feasible only in laboratory settings, not in daily life. But in
the new system, wires pass through the titanium bolt and into the
robotic arm. A processor in the prosthesis then uses an artificial-
Most bionic limbs are controlled by electrical signals intelligence algorithm to translate the muscle signals into control
ROBOTICS
generated by muscles moving near the attachment signals for joints in the arm and hand.
site. But when an arm is amputated above the elbow, the remaining The man has been using the prosthesis in his daily life for more
muscles aren’t enough to control every joint in an artificial hand. than three years to grasp objects and pour drinks. “This is the first
“The higher the amputation, the more joints you have to replace, nerve-based prosthetic hand that the patient can go home with,”
and the fewer muscles you have to do it,” says Max Ortiz Catalán, says bioengineer Cynthia Chestek of the University of Michigan, who
a bionicist at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden. was not involved in the project. The team is working to optimize the
Now Ortiz Catalán’s team has developed a bionic system that al- controllability of the prosthesis and to integrate sensory feedback.
lowed a man with an above-elbow amputation to control every finger Still, attaching the device requires major surgery that carries a
of a robotic arm, as described recently in Science Translational Med- risk of infection. “Not all amputees are going to want a titanium bolt
icine. To create more muscle signals to prompt the prosthetic, the through their skin,” Chestek says. Also, the prosthesis has so far
researchers dissected the nerve bundles that carry signals from the been demonstrated just once. “It’s only one participant, but it
man’s brain to muscles in his upper arm. The fibers were then spread shows some exciting results,” says prosthetic scientist Laura Miller
out and attached to new muscle targets in his remaining arm, includ- of the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Her group is planning to
ing muscle tissue grafted from his thigh. They also anchored a titanium collaborate with Ortiz Catalán on a larger trial. “We’re excited to do
fixture into the remaining upper-arm bone, making the prosthesis this type of procedure with more people,” she says.
more comfortable than typical fitted socket attachments. — Simon Makin
WHY
WE’LL
NEVER
LIVE IN
SPACE
The technological, biological,
psychological and ethical challenges
to leaving Earth BY SARAH SCOLES
ILLUSTRATION BY TAVIS COBURN
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SCII E N T I F IIC
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N ASA WANTS ASTRONAUT boots back on the moon a few years from now,
and the space agency is investing heavily in its Artemis program to
make it happen. It’s part of an ambitious and risky plan to establish
a more permanent human presence off-world. Companies such as
United Launch Alliance and Lockheed Martin are designing infra-
structure for lunar habitation. Elon Musk has claimed SpaceX will colonize Mars. But are
any of these plans realistic? Just how profoundly difficult would it be to live beyond Earth—
especially considering that outer space seems designed to kill us?
Humans evolved for and adapted to conditions on
Earth. Move us off our planet, and we start to fail—
physically and psychologically. The cancer risk from
cosmic rays and the problems that human bodies ex-
IN 1991 EIGHT PEOPLE ENTERED EIOSPHERE 2 AND
lived inside for two years. This strange facility is a
3.14-acre oasis where scientists have re-created differ-
ent terrestrial environments—not unlike an over-
perience in microgravity could be deal-breakers on grown botanical garden. There’s an ocean, mangrove
their own. Moreover, there may not be a viable eco- wetlands, a tropical rainforest, a savanna grassland
nomic case for sustaining a presence on another and a fog desert, all set apart from the rest of the plan-
world. Historically, there hasn’t been much public et they’re mimicking. One goal, alongside learning
support for spending big money on it. Endeavors to- about ecology and Earth itself, was to learn about how
ward interplanetary colonization also bring up thorny humans might someday live in space, where they
ethical issues that most space optimists haven’t fully would have to create a self-contained and self-sustain-
grappled with. ing place for themselves. Biosphere 2, located on Bio-
At this year’s Analog Astronaut Conference, none sphere 1 (Earth), was practice. The practice, though,
of these problems seemed unsolvable. Scientists and didn’t quite work out. The encapsulated environment
space enthusiasts were gathered at Biosphere 2, a min- didn’t produce enough oxygen, water or food for the
iature Earth near Tucson, Ariz., which researchers had inhabitants—a set of problems that, of course, future
built partly to simulate a space outpost. Amid this moon or Mars dwellers could also encounter. The first
Sarah Scoles is a crowd, the conclusion seemed foregone: living in space mission and a second one a few years later were also
Colorado-based science
journalist, a contributing is humans’ destiny, an inevitable goal that we must disrupted by interpersonal conflicts and psychologi-
editor at Popular Science, reach toward. cal problems among the residents.
and a senior contributor The conference attendees know it’s a big dream. Today the people who participate in projects like
at Undark. She is author But their general outlook was summed up by Phil Biosphere 2—simulating some aspect of long-term
of Making Contact (2017)
and They Are Already Hawes, chief architect for Biosphere 2, who gave the space travel while remaining firmly on Earth—are
Here (2020), both pub- opening talk at the meeting. He recited a toast made called analog astronauts. And although it’s a niche pur-
lished by Pegasus Books. by the first team to camp out here decades ago: “Here’s suit, it’s also popular: There are analog astronaut facil-
Her book Countdown: to throwing your heart out in front of you and run- ities in places such as Utah, Hawaii, Texas and Antarc-
The Blinding Future
of Nuclear Weapons
ning to catch up with it.” tica. People are building or planning them in Oman,
(Public Affairs) will The question remains as to whether we can—and Kenya and Israel. And they all share the goal of learn-
be out in 2024. will—ever run fast enough. ing how to live off Earth while on Earth.
24 SC I E N T I F IC A M ER IC A N OC TOBER 2 02 3
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The people who are mingling on Biosphere’s patio, shrink. That’s why they must do hours of exercise ev-
where the desert sunset casts a pink light on the hab- ery day, using specialized equipment that helps to
itat’s glass exterior, are part of that analog world. simulate some of the forces their anatomy would feel
Some of them have participated in simulation proj- on the ground—and even this training doesn’t fully
ects or have built their own analog astronaut facili- alleviate the loss.
ties; others are just analog-curious. They are astron- Perhaps the most significant concern about bod-
omers, geologists, former military personnel, mail ies in space, though, is radiation, something that
carriers, medical professionals, FedEx employees, is manageable for today’s astronauts flying in
musicians, artists, analysts, lawyers and the owner of low-Earth orbit but would be a bigger deal for people
the Tetris Company. On this night many have donned traveling farther and for longer. Some of it comes
Star Wars costumes. As the sun goes down, they from the sun, which spews naked protons that can
watch the rising moon, where many here would like damage DNA, particularly during solar storms.
to see humans settle. “[That] could make you very, very sick and give you
acute radiation syndrome,” says Dorit Donoviel, a
HUMAN EODIES REALLY CAN ’T handle space. Space- professor at the Baylor College of Medicine and di-
flight damages DNA, changes the microbiome, dis- rector of the Translational Research Institute for
rupts circadian rhythms, impairs vision, increases the Space Health (TRISH).
risk of cancer, causes muscle and bone loss, inhibits Future astronauts could use water—perhaps
the immune system, weakens the heart, and shifts flu- pumped into the walls of a shelter—to shield them-
ids toward the head, which may be pathological for the selves from these protons. But scientists don’t always
brain over the long term—among other things. know when the sun will be spitting out lots of parti-
At the University of California, San Fran-
cisco, medical researcher Sonja Schrepfer has
dug into two of the conditions that afflict space
Perhaps the most significant concern
explorers. Her research, using mice floating
within the International Space Station, has re-
is radiation, something that is
vealed that blood vessels leading to the brain manageable for today’s astronauts
get stiffer in microgravity. It’s part of why to-
day’s astronauts can’t simply walk out of their
flying in low-Earth orbit but would be
capsules once they return to Earth, and it would
play out the same way on Mars—where there’s
a bigger deal for people traveling
no one to wheel them to their new habitat on farther and for longer.
arrival. Schrepfer and her colleagues did, how-
ever, uncover a molecular pathway that might prevent cles. “So if, for example, astronauts are exploring the
those cardiovascular changes. “But now the question surface of the moon, and there is a solar particle event
I try to understand is, Do we want that?” she says. coming, we probably have the capability of predicting
Maybe the vessels’ stiffening is a protective mecha- it within about 20 to 30 minutes max,” Donoviel says.
nism, Schrepfer suggests, and limbering them up That means we need better prediction and detec-
might cause other problems. tion—and we’d need astronauts to stay close to their
She also wants to figure out how to help astronauts’ H 2O shield.
faltering immune systems, which look older and have If you didn’t get to safety in time, the nausea would
a harder time repairing tissue damage than they come first. “You would vomit into your spacesuit,”
should after spending time in space. “The immune Donoviel says, “which now becomes a life-threaten-
system is aging quite fast in microgravity,” Schrepfer ing situation” because the vomit could interfere with
says. She sends biological samples from young, healthy life-support systems, or you might breathe it in. Then
people on Earth up to orbit on tissue chips and tracks comes the depletion of cells such as neutrophils and
how they degrade. red blood cells, meaning you can’t battle germs or give
Vision and bone problems are also among the more your tissues oxygen effectively. You’ll be tired, anemic,
serious side effects. When astronauts spend a month unable to fight infection, and throwing up. Maybe
or more in space, their eyeballs flatten, one aspect of you’ll die. See why lots of kids want to be astronauts
a condition called spaceflight-associated neuro- when they grow up?
ocular syndrome, which can cause long-lasting dam- There’s another type of radiation, galactic cosmic
age to eyesight. Bones and muscles are built for life on rays, that even a lot of water won’t block. This radia-
Earth, which involves the ever present pull of gravi- tion is made of fast-moving elements—mostly hydro-
ty. The work the body does against gravity to stay up- gen but also every natural substance in the periodic ta-
right and move around keeps muscles from atrophy- ble. The rays burst forth from celestial events such as
ing and stimulates bone growth. In space, without a supernovae and have a lot more energy and mass than
force to push against, astronauts can experience bone a mere proton. “We really cannot fully shield astro-
loss that outpaces bone growth, and their muscles nauts” from them, Donoviel says. And inadequately
ical Neuropsychiatry laid out the psychological risks in supply and cutting of costs of space activity,”
that astronauts face on their journey, according to ex- Weinzierl says, “but who’s on the other side?” Space
isting research on spacefarers and analog astronauts: companies have historically been insular: specialists
poor emotional regulation, reduced resilience, in- creating things for specialists, not marketing wares or
creased anxiety and depression, communication prob- services to the broader world. Even commercial un-
lems within the team, sleep disturbances, and de- dertakings such as SpaceX are supported mostly by
creased cognitive and motor functioning brought on government contracts. Company leaders haven’t al-
by stress. To imagine why these issues arise, picture ways thought through the capitalism of their ideas;
yourself in a tin can with a small crew, a deadly envi- they’re just excited the rockets and widgets work.
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“Technical feasibility does not equal a strong business people don’t place much value on astronaut adven-
case,” Rousseau says. tures. A 2018 Pew poll asked participants to rate the
Today private spaceflight companies target tour- importance of nine of NASA’s key missions as “top
ists for business when they’re not targeting federal priority,” “important but lower priority,” or “not too
contracts. But those tourists aren’t protected by important/should not be done.” Just 18 and 13 per-
the same safety regulations that apply to government cent of people thought sending humans to Mars and
astronauts, and an accident could stifle the space tour- to the moon, respectively, was a top priority. That
ism industry. Stifling, too, is the fact that only so many placed those missions at the bottom of the list in
people with money are likely to want to live on a place terms of support, behind more popular efforts such
like Mars rather than take a short joyride above the at- as monitoring Earth’s climate, watching for danger-
mosphere, so the vacation business case for permanent ous asteroids and doing basic scientific research on
space outposts breaks down there as well. space in general.
People tend to liken space exploration to expansion A 2020 poll from Morning Consult found that just
on Earth—pushing the frontier. But on the edge of ter- 7 to 8 percent of respondents thought sending hu-
restrial frontiers, people were seeking, say, gold or mans to the moon or Mars should be a top priority.
more farmable land. In space, explorers can’t be sure Although history tends to remember the previous
of the value proposition at their destination. “So we moon exploration era as a time of universal excite-
have to be a little bit careful about thinking that it will ment for human spaceflight, polls from the time
Kike Calvo/Universal Images Group via Getty Images
just somehow pay off,” Weinzierl points out. demonstrate that that wasn’t the case: “Consistently
Weinzierl and Rousseau find the idea of a
sustained human presence in space inspiring,
but they’re not sure when or how it will work
from a financial perspective. After all, inspi-
On the edge of terrestrial frontiers,
ration doesn’t pay invoices. “We’d love to see people were seeking, say, gold or
that happening,” Rousseau says—he thinks
lots of people would. “As long as we’re not the
more farmable land. In space,
ones footing the bill.”
Many taxpayers would probably agree.
explorers can’t be sure of the value
As hard as it is for space fans to believe, most proposition at their destination.
OCTOBER 202 3 SC I E N T I F IC A M ER IC A N.COM 27
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throughout the 1960s, a majority of Americans did happening because money is going to the moon or
not believe Apollo was worth the cost, with the one Mars or Alpha Centauri.
exception to this a poll taken at the time of the Apollo And an even simpler ethical question is, “Should
11 lunar landing in July 1969,” wrote historian Roger we actually send people on these sorts of things?”
Launius in a paper for Space Policy. “And consistent- Green says. Aside from incurring significant risks of
ly throughout the decade 45–60 percent of Ameri- cancer and overall body deterioration, astronauts aim-
cans believed that the government was spending too ing to settle another world have a sizable chance of los-
much on space, indicative of a lack of commitment to ing their lives. Even if they do live, there are issues with
the spaceflight agenda.” what kind of an existence they might have. “It’s one
thing just to survive,” Green says. “But it’s an-
other thing to actually enjoy your life. Is Mars
Harmful extraterrestrial microbes going to be the equivalent of torture?”
could return with astronauts or If people make the attempt, we will also have
to acknowledge the risks to celestial bodies—
equipment—a planetary-protection the ones humans want to travel to as well as this
one, which they may return to if they haven’t
risk called backward contamination. purchased a one-way ticket. The moon, Mars or
Europa could become contaminated by micro-
When space agency officials discuss why people scopic Earth life, which NASA has never successfully
should care about human exploration, they often say eradicated from spacecraft, although it tries as part of
it’s for the benefit of humanity. Sometimes they cite a “planetary protection” program. And if destination
spin-offs that make their way to citizens as terrestri- worlds have undetected life, then harmful extraterres-
al technology—such as how telescope-mirror inno- trial microbes could also return with astronauts or
vations improved laser eye surgery. But that argument equipment—a planetary-protection risk called back-
doesn’t do it for Linda Billings, a consultant who ward contamination. What obligation do explorers
works with NASA. If you were interested in further- have to keep places as they found them? Setting aside
ing a technology, she suggests, you could invest di- the question of whether we can establish ourselves be-
rectly in the private sector instead of obliquely yond Earth, we also owe it to ourselves and the uni-
through a space agency, where its development will verse to consider whether we should.
inevitably take longer, cost more and not be automat-
ically tailored toward earthly use. “I don’t see that ON THIS QUESTION, SCIENCE-FICTION scholar Gary
NASA is producing any evidence that [human settle- Westfahl casts doubt on space travel’s inherent value.
ment of space] will be for the benefit of humanity,” In his vast analyses of sci-fi, he has come to view the
she says. logic and drive of the enterprise as faulty. “I inevitably
encountered the same argument: space travel rep-
HETHER TAX DOLLARS SHOULD support resents humanity’s destiny,” he says of the impetus for
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people did before Walmart and Amazon. Communi- the real world once the isolation was over: “reentry, Celestial bodies, includ-
cation with those beyond their immediate sphere is not to the atmosphere but to the planet,” she told the ing our moon, are at risk
of contamination by
slow and difficult. They have a strict but straightfor- conference audience. She didn’t remember how to go
microscopic Earth life.
ward and prescribed work schedule. Everything is a about having friends, hobbies or a job and had trouble
struggle; there are no conveniences. Unlike in a mod- dealing with requests coming from lots of sources in-
ern, digitally connected environment, their attention stead of just mission control. In the Q&A period after
isn’t split in many directions—they are focused on the the talk, Tara Sweeney, a geologist in the audience,
present. Or at least that’s how analog astronaut Ash- thanked Kowalski for talking about that part of the ex-
ley Kowalski felt during the SIRIUS 21 endeavor, an perience. Sweeney had just returned from a long stay
eight-month-long joint U.S.-Russia “lunar mission” in Antarctica and also didn’t quite know how to rein-
that took place in a sealed space in Moscow. tegrate into life in a more hospitable place. They had
Kowalski’s talk at the Analog Astronaut Confer- both missed “Earth,” the real world. But it was hard to
ence at Biosphere 2 was called “Only Eight Months.” come back.
The goal of those eight months was to study the med- Still, the Analog Astronaut Conference crowd re-
ical and psychological effects of isolation. She and her mained optimistic. “Where do we go from here?” con-
teammates regularly provided blood, feces and skin ference founder and actual astronaut Sian Proctor
samples so researchers could learn about their stress asked at one point. On cue, the audience members
levels, metabolic function and immunological chang- pointed upward and said, “To the moon!”
es. Researchers also had them take psychological tests, Analog-astronaut work can’t solve space travel’s
sussing out their perception of time, changes in cog- hardest problems—the intractable medical troubles,
nitive abilities and shifts in interpersonal interac- the in-red money questions, the touchy ethical quan-
NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio
tions. Inside they had to eat like astronauts would, daries. But while we all wait to see whether we’ll ever
guzzling tubes of Sicilian pizza gel and burger gel. truly migrate off this planet, and whether we should,
Kowalski would squeeze them into rehydrated soup these grounded astronauts will continue to escape
to make meals heartier. Via their greenhouse, they got Earth, for a time at least, without leaving it.
about a bowl of salad between the six of them every
three weeks. FROM OUR ARCHIVES
Kowalski missed freedom and food and friends, of Lunar Land Grab. Adam Mann; July 2019. ScientificAmerican.com/
course. But the real struggle came with her return to magazine/sa
30 SC I E N T I F IC A M ER IC A N OC TOBER 2 02 3
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OCTOBER 202 3 SC I E N T I F IC A M ER IC A N.COM 31
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O N THE CRISP afternoon of February 12, 2023, two
men parked a Winnebago by a field outside Reno,
Nev. They lit a portable grill and barbecued a fist-
sized mound of yellow powdered sulfur, creating
a steady stream of colorless sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas.
Rotten-egg fumes permeated the air as they used a shop vac to pump the gas
into a balloon about the diameter of a beach umbrella. Then they added
enough helium to the balloon to take it aloft, attached a camera and GPS sen-
sor, and released it into the sky. They tracked the balloon for the next several
hours as it rose into the stratosphere and drifted far to the southwest, cross-
ing over the Sierra Nevada Mountains before popping and releasing its gaseous
contents. The contraption plummeted into a cow pasture near Stockton, Calif.
The balloon released only a few grams of SO2, but comes clear that humans are unlikely to reduce emis-
the act was a brazen demonstration of something long sions quickly enough to keep global warming below
considered taboo—injecting gases into the strato- 1.5 degrees Celsius, some scientists say SRM might be
sphere to try to slow global warming. Once released, less scary than allowing warming to continue unabat-
SO2 reacts with water vapor to form droplets that be- ed. Proposals for cooling the planet are becoming
come suspended in the air—a type of aerosol—and more concrete even as the debate over them grows in-
act as tiny mirrors, reflecting incoming sunlight back creasingly rancorous.
to space. Luke Iseman and Andrew Song, founders of SRM replicates a natural phenomenon created by
solar geoengineering company Make Sunsets, had large volcanic eruptions. When Mount Pinatubo
sold “cooling credits” to companies and individuals; erupted in the Philippines in 1991, it blasted 20 mil-
a $10 purchase would fund the release of a gram of SO2, lion tons of SO2 into the stratosphere, creating an
which they said would offset the warming effects of a “aerosol parasol” that cooled the planet by about
Douglas Fox writes metric ton of atmospheric carbon dioxide for a year. 0.5 degree C over the next year or so before the drop-
about biology, geology They had planned a launch in Mexico but switched to lets settled back to Earth. Studies suggest that if SRM
and climate science from
California. He wrote the the U.S. after the Mexican government forbade them. were deployed at sufficient scale—maybe one quar-
November 2022 article Many people recoil at the notion of solar geoengi- ter of a Pinatubo eruption every year, enough to block
“The Coming Collapse,” neering, or solar radiation management (SRM), as 1 or 2 percent of sunlight—it could slow warming and
which revealed that it’s often called. The idea that humans should try to even cool the planet a bit. Its effects would be felt
Antarctica’s Thwaites
Ice Shelf could splinter
fix the atmosphere they’ve messed up by messing within months, and it would cost only a few billion
apart in less than with it some more seems fraught with peril—an act dollars annually. In comparison, transitioning away
a decade. of Faustian arrogance certain to backfire. But as it be- from fossil fuels is expected to take decades, and the
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CO2 emitted until then could make warming worse.
Using machines to remove billions of tons of CO2 from
the skies, a process called direct-air capture, could slow
How Sulfur Dioxide
warming but would be fighting itself—the machines Hides the Sun
might increase the world’s energy consumption by up Volcanoes, wildfires, and other sources produce sulfur dioxide (S02). As
to 25 percent, potentially creating more greenhouse the gas rises to the stratosphere, chemical reactions create tiny sulfuric
gas emissions. Because SRM could produce effects acid particles (H2SO4). The aerosols can linger in the atmosphere for up
quickly, it has political appeal. It’s “the only thing po- to three years, reflecting incoming energy from the sun and thereby less-
litical leaders can do that would have a discernible in- ening the warming of land and ocean surfaces.
fluence on temperature within their term in office,”
says Ken Caldeira, a climate scientist emeritus at the Oxygen Sunlight
Carnegie Institution for Science, who is also a senior
Hydrogen
scientist at Breakthrough Energy, an organization
OH O2 H2O
founded by Bill Gates.
Caldeira and others say SRM should be pursued Sulfur
with extreme caution—if at all. It could noticeably
whiten our blue sky. It could weaken the stratospher-
ic ozone layer that protects us and Earth’s biosphere
from ultraviolet radiation. It might change weather SO2 HSO3 HO2 SO3 H 2O H2SO4
patterns and move the monsoons that water crops for
billions of people. And it wouldn’t do anything to rem-
edy other CO2-related problems such as ocean acidifi-
cation, which is harming the ability of corals, shellfish Stratosphere Aerosol particles
and some plankton to form skeletons and shells. deflect some
of the incoming
Critics also say that the very idea of an escape hatch
Troposphere sunlight, resulting
such as SRM could undermine support for reducing in the cooling
greenhouse gas emissions. Like a prescription drug, if Earth’s surface of Earth’s surface
SRM were used responsibly—temporarily and in
small doses—it could be beneficial, easing what is like-
ly to be a dangerously hot century or two and buying
humanity some extra time to transition to renewable al regulations that could pave the way for experimen-
energy. But it also has potential for abuse. At higher tation. And in June the Biden administration released
doses it could increasingly distort the climate, altering a report outlining what an SRM research program
weather patterns in ways that pit nation against na- could look like.
tion, possibly leading to war. Even if SRM reduced average temperatures, it
For all these reasons, more than 400 scientists have wouldn’t reset the climate to its preindustrial state, says
signed an open letter urging governments to adopt a David Keith, head of climate systems engineering at the
worldwide ban on SRM experiments. But other scien- University of Chicago, who has studied the idea for over
tists are proceeding, if reluctantly. “All the scientists I two decades. But it could lessen the hurt coming for us.
know who are working on this—none of them want to
be working on it,” says Alan Robock, a climatologist at THE IDEA THAT HUMANS can change the planet’s at-
Rutgers University. Robock, who previously showed mosphere for their own purposes has a long history. In
the world how a nuclear winter could shroud Earth, 1962 the U.S. military started Project Stormfury, an at-
studies SRM out of a sense of obligation. “If some- tempt to weaken hurricanes by seeding their clouds
body’s tempted to do this in the future,” he says, they with silver iodide particles. From 1967 to 1972 the U.S.
“should know what the consequences would be.” Air Force dabbled in weather-control warfare over
Experts who support trials note that unabated Vietnam and Laos; in a highly classified effort called
warming is just as consequential. In a recent report, Operation Popeye, several aircraft flew daily missions
the World Meteorological Organization estimated a to spray lead and silver iodide powder into monsoon
66 percent chance that by 2027 the world’s average an- clouds. The goal was to increase rainfall, which would
nual temperature will briefly exceed 1.5 degrees C muddy up the Ho Chi Minh Trail, a network of coarse
above preindustrial levels—a dangerous threshold be- roads, interrupting Vietcong supply lines.
yond which extreme damage to the environment oc- Almost as soon as scientists understood that rising
curs. On February 27, 2023, a few days after Iseman CO2 could warm the planet, some of them proposed
and Song sent barbecued sulfur into the sky, 110 cli- making Earth more reflective to counter the effect. In
mate scientists, including climate change pioneer 1965 scientists reported to President Lyndon B. John-
James Hansen, published a different open letter urg- son that warming caused by rising CO2 could be ad-
ing government support for SRM research. The fol- dressed by spreading reflective particles across the
lowing day the United Nations called for internation- oceans. In 1974 Russian climatologist Mikhail Budyko
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ic aerosols, says Sarah Doherty, an atmospheric scien- standing of how ozone is destroyed. They have flown
tist at the University of Washington who studies ma- through volcanic eruption plumes. And they have
rine-cloud brightening. “It may turn out that doing a helped to create the scientific foundation on which
little bit of each [method] would allow you to maxi- SRM is based. But these high-altitude albatrosses will
mize benefits and minimize risks,” she says. never carry tons and tons of SO2.
Planes capable of that job could be developed with
TRATOSPHERIC AEROSOL INJECTION is the largely existing technologies, says Wake Smith, a for-
Aerosols
in the
stratosphere
Silver iodide
Surface Marine particles cause
heating clouds Clouds ice droplets to
sprayed with form and fall
seawater
aerosols
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er crucial variable is the rate at which droplets cause They, along with Greenpeace Sweden and several oth-
chemical reactions that destroy ozone. When research- er environmental groups, persuaded the government
ers try to predict the effects of stratospheric injection, to cancel it. The protests were never about the environ-
they plug in their best estimates for such variables. The mental impact of the test, MacMartin says. What hap-
problem is that most studies use similar estimates. pened, he says, is that “the entire conversation about
“The big question,” Keith says, “is, Are we wrong?” ‘Oh, my God, do we even want to go down this path?’
To address this uncertainty, Keith recommends got stapled onto that experiment.”
running large “ensembles”—hundreds of different
versions of the same model in which different combi- ANY SRM OPPONENTS would like to ban exper-
nations of numbers are plugged in. Scientists have done
only a few such studies of SRM effects. Keith hopes to
oversee more ensemble work at the University of Chi-
M iments outright. Yet some scientists are con-
tinuing the research because they believe it’s
the responsible thing to do. “The people who should
cago. The range of climate outcomes this research pro- be advocating for experiments the most are the people
duces could then be plugged into models that predict who think that bad stuff would happen,” Caldeira says.
how SRM could affect crop yields, forest fires, storms, “The most valuable experiment that somebody could
or the spread of malaria and other diseases. do now is one [showing] that there would be really
Still, no matter how many large ensembles scien- horrible consequences.” And if SRM is going to be
tists run, it’s impossible to know how SRM will work studied and perhaps even rolled out, it’s better to start
until it’s been tested in the real world—and tested at a sooner and more gradually, so the downsides can be
much larger scale than two guys releasing a balloon understood. Ironically, SRM might have more public
outside Reno. In 2011 Keith and Caldeira published an support if it were delayed until climate impacts be-
analysis suggesting that a meaningful stratospher- come extreme, but at that point it would have to be
ic-injection trial would take a decade. Several hundred done urgently and rapidly. “There’s a real mismatch
thousand tons of SO2 would have to be injected every between what is politically and environmentally
year—enough, theoretically, to reverse 10 percent of risky,” Caldeira says.
the warming caused by a doubling of preindustrial CO2 Even small experiments will need the legitimacy of
levels. The minimum viable experiment, in other being funded and regulated by government, Kelly
words, “would be indistinguishable from a deploy- Wanser says. She is executive director of Silver Lining,
ment,” Caldeira says. a nonprofit organization that is encouraging the Na-
Smaller experiments could reduce uncertainties in tional Science Foundation and other government bod-
the models. Scientists could get a better understanding ies to establish funding for SRM research and set up
of injection equipment, for example, by building it and rules defining how and when experiments can be per-
using it to release anywhere from a few kilograms to a formed. Scientists would like that kind of governance,
few metric tons of SO2 into the stratosphere. That work Ricke says. After all, it has long existed for other sen-
could reveal whether ejected droplets remain the same sitive science areas, such as medical studies in humans,
size while aloft, details about chemical reactions, and and has improved the quality of that research. The goal
what effects they have on ozone. In fact, scientists have would be an international body, similar to the Inter-
been doing studies like this since the 1960s, releasing governmental Panel on Climate Change, that would
tracers such as zinc sulfide powder or sulfur hexaflu- set research priorities while considering the interests
oride gas into the stratosphere to study air currents. of rich and poor nations. Absent that structure, legit-
But when the subject of inquiry is SRM, barriers to imate science is not progressing, Ricke says, and
even small experiments become extreme. In early 2021 “rogue activities are starting to emerge.”
Keith and Frank Keutsch, an atmospheric chemist at Two months after the Reno balloon release, on
Harvard, were planning the first SRM field trial. The April 10, Iseman and Song visited the Berkeley Mari-
Stratospheric Controlled Perturbation Experiment na in California to launch three more stratospheric bal-
(SCoPEx) was designed to mimic a trail of aerosol re- loons, funded by $2,840 of cooling credits purchased
leased by a stratospheric aircraft. A self-propelled bal- by customers. “A 747 emits this amount in a couple of
loon would ascend 20 kilometers, release half a kilo- minutes,” Iseman said as he held high the first balloon
gram of sulfate into the wake of its propeller, then fly in his right hand, with San Francisco Bay shimmering
back through the aerosol trail to monitor how it evolved. in the background and a camera crew filming. Then he
The experiment would release only 0.3 percent of the let it go. A few days later the two men attended an
amount emitted by a commercial transatlantic flight. Earth Day event in San Francisco, where they helped
The researchers planned for the first launch, slated for children launch their own small balloons, coated with
June 2021 in northern Sweden, to merely test the equip- chalk dust, which could aerosolize. “Our goal,” Iseman
ment without releasing any gas. It never happened. said, “is to make 1,000 new geoengineers.”
In February 2021 the Sámi Council, a group repre-
senting Indigenous reindeer herders in the region, FROM OUR ARCHIVES
protested to the Swedish government that they had not What Should Carbon Cost? Gilbert E. Metcalf; June 2020.
been notified of the test occurring in their airspace. ScientificAmerican.com/magazine/sa
Win
38 SC I E N T I F IC A M ER IC A N OC TOBER 2 02 3
© 2023 Scientific American
Origins
© 2023 Scientific American
W ITH JUST A sniff and a sip, trained sommeliers can often tell what
region a wine came from: Douro in Portugal, Barossa in Australia,
Napa or Sonoma in California. Experts in a specific locale can name
the hillside—even how far up the hill—where a wine’s grapes were
grown because of the terroir, the combination of soil, topography
and microclimate that imparts a characteristic taste. The geographic and genetic journeys
that brought those grapes to those places, however, have been poorly understood.
A massive new study gives us the clear- vines in the central Mediterranean Sea re-
est picture yet of the prehistory of wine, gion, cleaving vine habitat into two isolat-
overturning several commonly accepted ed areas: one to the west of the sea (today
narratives about when and where humans Portugal, Spain and France) and one to the
cultivated grapevines to make the world’s east (roughly Israel, Syria, Turkey and
wines. A large international group of re- Georgia). Around 56,000 years ago the
local wild grapevines. The earliest cross-
breeding probably happened in what is
now Israel and Turkey, creating muscat
grapes, which are high in sugar—good for
eating and fermenting. Gradually the table
grape was genetically transformed into dif-
searchers collected and analyzed 2,503 eastern region separated again into small- ferent wine grapes in the Balkans, Italy,
unique vines from domesticated table and er isolated areas: the Caucasus (Georgia, France and Spain.
wine grapes and 1,022 wild grapevines. By Armenia and Azerbaijan) and western But if people in the Caucasus already
extracting DNA from the vines and deter- Asia (Israel, Jordon and Iraq). had wine grapes, why didn’t they bring
mining the patterns of genetic variations Until recently, researchers also thought them to Europe? “We just don’t know yet,”
among them, they found some surprises. humans domesticated grapevines from Chen says. People migrating from there—
For centuries grape growers in different wild progenitors as long as 8,000 years ago notably Yamnaya nomads 4,000 to 5,000
communities passed down lore about as an early agricultural revolution spread years ago—might have brought vines, but
where their grapes came from. Some gov- across what is now western Asia and Eu- the genetic analysis shows that Caucasus
ernments, particularly in Europe, desig- rope. Some experts thought vines were grapes have had very little influence on the
nated appellations—strictly circum- first cultivated in Iberia (primarily Portu- makeup of European wine grapes.
40 SC I E N T I F IC A M ER IC A N OC TOBER 2 02 3
© 2023 Scientific American
Primitivo grapes are harvested in Puglia,
one of Italy’s famous wine regions.
OC TOBER 2 02 3 SC I E N T I F IC A M ER IC A N.COM 41
© 2023 Scientific American
How PALEOLITHIC
200 thousand years ago 56 21
MESOLITHIC AND NEOLITHIC
11 8 7.7 6.9
Grapevines Early modern human expansion Modern human migration widens Advent of agriculture
Evolved
Wild grapevines from antiquity split
about 200,000 years ago into two Ice Age limits human and Agriculture reaches Eastern Europe
primary genetic lines, named west- grapevine populations
ern and eastern, and spread natu- Agriculture reaches Iberia
rally across Eurasia. Humans who Agriculture reaches Southern France
migrated there first domesticated WILD GRAPEVINES (Vitis sylvestris)
wine and table grapes around 11,000 WILD GRAPEVINES—WESTERN GROUP
years ago as agriculture began to
develop. Subsequent cultivation Each bar represents a genetically Humans crossbreed vines
and crossbreeding led to six geo- distinct group of grapevines.
graphic lineages that largely make
up the varietals we enjoy today. Humans crossbreed vines
Number of vines
WESTERN GROUP 100
10
WESTERN GROUP 1
ps
Al
EASTERN GROUP
WESTERN GROUP 2
Source:
Za
“Dual
gr
os
of Traits in Grape-
nt
ain
vine Evolution,” by
s
Crimson
Seedless
U.S.
CULTIVATED VINES DIVERSIFY Missionaries and
People in Europe produced wine explorers probably
grapes by breeding local wild brought domesticated
grapes with table grapes that vines from Eurasia to the
migrating farmers brought Americas, Argentina, South
there (arrows). Four genetically Africa and Australia between
distinct wine-grape groups the 14th and 16th centuries.
developed in different
regions (dotted circles).
Eastern Group 1
Eastern Group 1 and Balkan Group
Number of vines Vine dispersal route and Western split about Number of vines
European Group 8,000 years ago
100 Eastern Group 1 Table grapes split about 100
6,900 years ago BALKAN
10 Eastern Group 2 Wine grapes 10
GROUP ORIGIN
WESTERN EUROPEAN
GROUP ORIGIN
First
CAUCASUS crossbreeding
DOMESTICATION CENTER by humans
EASTERN
GROUP 2
IBERIAN
GROUP ORIGIN MUSCAT
Eastern Group 1 and GROUP ORIGIN
EASTERN
Iberian Group GROUP 1
split about 7,700
years ago
WESTERN ASIAN Eastern Group 1 and
DOMESTICATION CENTER Muscat Group split about
OC TOBER 2 02 3 SC I E N T I F IC A M ER IC A N.COM 43
10,500 years ago
© 2023 Scientific American
BEHAVIOR
Talking
with
44 SC I E N T I F IC A M ER IC A N OCTOBER
OC TOBER 2 02 3
many Indigenous cultures have long be- power of AI to reshape our understanding rectly identify a small subset of individual
lieved that animals can intentionally com- of animals, he thinks, will have a similar ef- whales from the codas 99 percent of the
municate, Western scientists traditionally fect. “These tools are going to change the time. Next the team set an ambitious new
have shied away from research way that we see ourselves in re- goal: listen to large swathes of the ocean in
that blurs the lines between hu- Lois Parshley is an lation to everything.” the hopes of training a computer to learn to
mans and other animals for fear investigative journalist. speak whale. Project CETI, for which Gero
of being accused of anthropo- Her climate reporting WHEN SHANE GERO got off his serves as lead biologist, plans to deploy an
can be found on X
morphism. But with recent (formerly known as research vessel in Dominica underwater microphone attached to a buoy
breakthroughs in AI, “people Twitter) and Mastodon after a recent day of fieldwork, to record the vocalizations of Dominica’s
realize that we are on the brink @loisparshley he was excited. The sperm resident whales around the clock.
46 SC I E N T I F IC A M ER IC A N OC TOBER 2 02 3
© 2023 Scientific American
As sensors have gotten cheaper and as an ethogram. With the right training, Hawaiian Crow’s vocabulary. “This species
technologies such as hydrophones, bio- machine-learning models could help parse has been removed from its natural environ-
loggers and drones have improved, the these behaviors and perhaps discover nov- ment for a very long time,” he says. He is de-
amount of animal data has exploded. el patterns in the data. Scientists writing in veloping an inventory of all the calls the cap-
There’s suddenly far too much for biolo- the journal Nature Communications last tive birds currently use. He’ll compare that
gists to sift through efficiently by hand. AI year, for example, reported that a model to historical recordings of the last wild Ha-
thrives on vast quantities of information, found previously unrecognized differenc- waiian Crows to determine whether their
though. Large language models such as es in Zebra Finch songs that females pay at- repertoire has changed in captivity. He
ChatGPT must ingest massive amounts of tention to when choosing mates. Females wants to know whether they may have lost
text to learn how to respond to prompts: prefer partners that sing like the birds the important calls, such as those pertaining to
ChatGPT-3 was trained on around 45 tera- females grew up with. predators or courtship, which could help
bytes of text data, a good chunk of the entire explain why reintroducing the crow to the
Library of Congress. Early models required YOU CAN ALREADY use one kind of AI- wild has proved so difficult.
humans to classify much of those data with powered analysis with Merlin, a free app Machine-learning models could some-
labels. In other words, people had to teach from the Cornell Lab of Ornithology that day help us figure out our pets, too. For a
the machines what was important. But the identifies bird species. To identify a bird by long time animal behaviorists didn’t pay
next generation of models learned how to sound, Merlin takes a user’s recording and much attention to domestic pets, says Con
“self-supervise,” automatically learning converts it into a spectrogram—a visual- Slobodchikoff, author of Chasing Doctor
what’s essential and independently creat- ization of the volume, pitch and length of Dolittle: Learning the Language of Animals.
ing an algorithm of how to predict what the bird’s call. The model is trained on When he began his career studying prairie
words come next in a sequence. Cornell’s audio library, against which it dogs, he quickly gained an appreciation for
In 2017 two research groups discovered compares the user’s recording to predict their sophisticated calls, which can de-
a way to translate between human languag- the species identification. It then com- scribe the size and shape of predators. That
es without the need for a Rosetta stone. The pares this guess to eBird, Cornell’s global experience helped to inform his later work
discovery hinged on turning the semantic database of observations, to make sure it’s as a behavioral consultant for misbehaving
relations between words into geometric a species that one would expect to find in dogs. He found that many of his clients
ones. Machine-learning models are now the user’s location. Merlin can identify completely misunderstood what their dog
able to translate between unknown human calls from more than 1,000 bird species was trying to convey. When our pets try to
languages by aligning their shapes—using with remarkable accuracy. communicate with us, they often use mul-
the frequency with which words such as But the world is loud, and singling out timodal signals, such as a bark combined
“mother” and “daughter” appear near each the tune of one bird or whale from the ca- with a body posture. Yet “we are so fixated
other, for example, to accurately predict cophony is difficult. The challenge of iso- on sound being the only valid element of
what comes next. “There’s this hidden un- lating and recognizing individual speakers, communication, that we miss many of the
derlying structure that seems to unite known as the cocktail party problem, has other cues,” he says.
us all,” Raskin says. “The door has been long plagued efforts to process animal vo- Now Slobodchikoff is developing an AI
opened to using machine learning to de- calizations. In 2021 the Earth Species Proj- model aimed at translating a dog’s facial ex-
code languages that we don’t already know ect built a neural network that can separate pressions and barks for its owner. He has no
how to decode.” overlapping animal sounds into individu- doubt that as researchers expand their stud-
The field hit another milestone in 2020, al tracks and filter background noise, such ies to domestic animals, machine-learning
when natural-language processing began as car honks—and it released the open- advances will reveal surprising capabilities
to be able to “treat everything as a lan- source code for free. It works by creating a in pets. “Animals have thoughts, hopes,
guage,” Raskin explains. Take, for exam- visual representation of the sound, which maybe dreams of their own,” he says.
ple, DALL-E 2, one of the AI systems that the neural network uses to determine Farmed animals could also benefit from
can generate realistic images based on ver- which pixel is produced by which speaker. such depth of understanding. Elodie F.
bal descriptions. It maps the shapes that In addition, the Earth Species Project re- Briefer, an associate professor in animal be-
represent text to the shapes that represent cently developed a so-called foundational havior at the University of Copenhagen, has
images with remarkable accuracy—exact- model that can automatically detect and shown that it’s possible to assess animals’
ly the kind of “multimodal” analysis the classify patterns in datasets. emotional states based on their vocaliza-
translation of animal communication will Not only are these tools transforming re- tions. She recently created an algorithm
probably require. search, but they also have practical value. If trained on thousands of pig sounds that uses
Many animals use different modes of scientists can translate animal sounds, they machine learning to predict whether the an-
communication simultaneously, just as hu- may be able to help imperiled species. The imals were experiencing a positive or nega-
mans use body language and gestures Hawaiian Crow, known locally as the ‘Alalā, tive emotion. Briefer says a better grasp of
while talking. Any actions made immedi- went extinct in the wild in the early 2000s. how animals experience feelings could spur
ately before, during, or after uttering The last birds were brought into captivity to efforts to improve their welfare.
sounds could provide important context start a conservation breeding program. Ex- But as good as language models are at
for understanding what an animal is trying panding on his work with the New Caledo- finding patterns, they aren’t actually deci-
to convey. Traditionally, researchers have nian Crow, Rutz is now collaborating with phering meaning—and they definitely ar-
cataloged these behaviors in a list known the Earth Species Project to study the en’t always right. Even AI experts often
48 SC I E N T I F IC A M ER IC A N OC TOBER 2 02 3
© 2023 Scientific American
New Caledonian Crows, which are famous for their toolmaking abilities, have regionally distinctive vocalizations that could one day be deciphered using AI.
stalk the brambles. A courtship progressed, pond in Alaska with a pair of wild Sandhill pain of losing a loved one. It’s a moment
the male solicitous and preening. Soon ev- Cranes they nicknamed Millie and Roy. ripe for translation.
ery morning one bird flapped off alone to They assured me that they, too, had seen the Perhaps the true value of any language
forage while the other stayed behind to tend birds react to death. After one of Millie and is that it helps us relate to others and in so
their eggs. We fell into a routine, the birds Roy’s colts died, Roy began picking up doing frees us from the confines of our own
and I: as the sun crested the hill, I kept one blades of grass and dropping them near his minds. Every spring, as the light swept
eye toward the windows, counting the days offspring’s body. That evening, as the sun back over Yuncker and Happ’s home, they
Jean-Paul Ferrero/Auscape International Pty Ltd/Alamy Stock Photo
as I imagined cells dividing, new wings slipped toward the horizon, the family be- waited for Millie and Roy to return. In 2017
forming in the warm, amniotic dark. gan to dance. The surviving colt joined its they waited in vain. Other cranes vied for
Then one morning it ended. Some- parents as they wheeled and jumped, throw- the territory. The two scientists missed
where behind the house the birds began to ing their long necks back to the sky. watching the colts hatch and grow. But last
wail, twining their voices into a piercing cry Happ knows critics might disapprove of summer a new crane pair built a nest. Be-
until suddenly I saw them both running their explaining the birds’ behaviors as fore long, their colts peeped through the
down the hill into the stutter start of flight. grief, considering that “we cannot precise- tall grass, begging for food and learning
They circled once and then disappeared. I ly specify the underlying physiological cor- to dance. Life began a new cycle. “We’re
waited for days, but I never saw them again. relates.” But based on the researchers’ close always looking at nature,” Yuncker says,
Wondering if they were mourning a observations of the crane couple over a de- “when really, we’re part of it.”
failed nest or whether I was reading too cade, he writes, interpreting these striking
much into their behavior, I reached out to reactions as devoid of emotion “flies in the FROM OUR ARCHIVES
George Happ and Christy Yuncker, retired face of the evidence.” The Orca’s Sorrow. Barbara J. King; March 2019.
scientists who for two decades shared their Everyone can eventually relate to the ScientificAmerican.com/magazine/sa
INNOVATIONS IN
ENVIRONMENTAL
HEALTH EQUITY
The Geography
SPECIAL REPORT
of Injustice
THE AIR WE breathe, the water we drink, the temperature outside—all are
S3 HARD TRUTHS FROM HARD DATA influenced by where we live, and each has a distinct effect on our health. Over
The father of environmental justice the past few decades an abundance of research has shown that the environ-
reflects on the movement he created. ment can have dramatic impacts on health and that those who have the
BY YESSENIA FUNES healthiest environments tend to have the most privilege. Conversely, those
who bear the brunt of environmental health threats tend to have limited
S8 BREATHTAKING BIAS power to bring about real change.
Air pollution is concentrated in the most Robert D. Bullard, known as the father of environmental justice, was one
vulnerable communities, and reducing it of the first people to systematically document the connection between race
could improve health equity worldwide. and exposure to pollution. His work showed clearly how U.S. policies such as
BY JYOTI MADHUSOODANAN redlining had burdened majority-Black communities with far more contam-
inated air and water than their white neighbors were exposed to. Because of
S13 CHANGING THE ENVIRONMENT those same historical policies, people of color on average live in neighbor-
These four researchers are highlighting hoods with higher surface heat than do non-Hispanic white people. One
environmental inequities and improving result of these urban heat islands is that people who already have a higher risk
the health of their communities. of respiratory and heart disease end up living in environments that exacer-
BY KATHERINE BOURZAC bate those illnesses.
Around the world, people breathing the most toxic air are consistently the
S16 A GROWING FUNGAL THREAT poorest and most disadvantaged. This pattern is apparent at every level, from
Valley fever hits outdoor workers the smallest towns to the largest countries. Wealthy nations have shown that
disproportionately hard. reducing air pollution saves lives, and some poorer countries are proving that
BY ASHLI BLOW clean energy can fuel economic development.
Snakebite envenomation is one of the deadliest tropical diseases. Like so
S18 A FANGED CRISIS many other conditions, it is most dangerous to the people with the fewest
More people die from snakebite resources because they are least able to protect themselves from being bitten
envenomation than from almost or to access the best care. New treatments could save lives and limbs.
any other neglected tropical disease. The climate crisis is changing the range and prevalence of many diseases.
BY CASSANDRA WILLYARD Valley fever has expanded into new locations, and those working outdoors in
construction sites and dusty agricultural fields are the most at risk. The ill-
S26 ISLANDS OF ILLNESS ness also disproportionately affects Latino, Asian and Indigenous American
People of color and people in poverty people, who are more likely to contract it than white people and who often
disproportionately live in urban “heat experience more severe symptoms.
islands” that take a severe toll on health. Solutions exist, and they require better understanding and a fresh ap-
BY MELBA NEWSOME proach. Innovative researchers are devising healthier buildings, designing
clinical trials with community involvement, and monitoring the air and
water to empower people to protect themselves. They are creating a move-
ment toward a more livable and more just world.
This report, published in Scientific American and Nature,
is supported by Takeda Pharmaceuticals. It was produced
independently by the editors of Scientific American, who
—LAUREN GRAVITZ,
take sole responsibility for the editorial content. CONTRIBUTING EDITOR
EDITORIAL
MANAGING EDITOR PHOTOGRAPHY EDITOR SENIOR COPY EDITOR PREPRESS AND QUALITY MANAGER
Jeanna Bryner Monica Bradley Angelique Rondeau Silvia De Santis
CHIEF FEATURES EDITOR SENIOR GRAPHICS EDITOR SENIOR COPY EDITOR PUBLISHER AND VP
Seth Fletcher Jen Christiansen Aaron Shattuck Jeremy A. Abbate
SENIOR EDITOR ASSOCIATE GRAPHICS EDITOR ASSOCIATE COPY EDITOR DIRECTOR, CONTENT PARTNERSHIPS
Josh Fischman Amanda Montañez Emily Makowski Marlene Stewart
CONTRIBUTING EDITOR
Lauren Gravitz
S2 SC I E N T I F IC A M ER IC A N OC TOBER 2 02 3
© 2023 Scientific American
INNOVATIONS IN ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH EQUITY
Black people face some of the highest cancer and asthma rates in the U.S., statistics that ing Black plaintiffs in the case “Negresses.”
are inarguably linked to the environment in which someone lives, works and plays. But That’s a fancy, dressed-up way of calling
until Robert D. Bullard began collecting data in the 1970s, no one fully understood how you the N-word. The racial undertone was
a person’s surroundings can affect their health. And no one, not even Bullard, knew how so thick. It was almost as if that case were
segregated the most polluted places really were. brought too soon.
Bullard was the first scientist to publish systematic research on the links between race
and exposure to pollution, which he documented for a 1979 lawsuit. “This is before every- What was the public response to your ini-
one had [geographic information system] mapping, before iPads, iPhones, laptops, Goo- tial studies?
gle,” he says. “This is doing research way back with a hammer and a chisel.” Communities on the ground, the ones
In 2021 Texas Southern University in Houston established the Robert D. Bullard Cen- who were being poisoned and ignored,
ter for Environmental and Climate Justice, where Bullard now serves as executive direc- started to come together. Grassroots and
tor. He has written 18 books on the topic, and his work helped to launch a movement. civil rights groups began to build coali-
Environmental justice—the idea that everyone has the right to a clean and healthy envi- tions and collaborate. By 1990 we were
ronment, no matter their race or class—has been embraced by advocates around the organizing the First National People of
world and is influencing international climate negotiations. SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN Color Environmental Leadership Sum-
asked Bullard about his work and its impact in the U.S. and beyond. mit. The industry attacked us. Some of us
An edited version of the interview follows. were sued. Some of us were intimidated
and threatened. But we’ve kept fighting
Your early work signaled the start of My job was to design the study, collect because we have justice on our side. A lot
a new field. How would you describe it? the data, and present maps that showed of people tried to debunk our work, but
I do what’s called “kickass sociology.” I’ve where all the landfills, incinerators and they never could. We had to fight with
tried to pattern my work after a kickass solid waste sites were located in Houston some of our environmental allies: conser-
Black sociologist: W.E.B. DuBois, who from the 1920s up to 1979. We found that vation groups that were mostly white and
showed how someone can be a teacher, five out of five of the city-owned landfills affluent. They’re with us now, but they
scholar, researcher, author, social critic and were in predominantly Black neighbor- were not always.
activist. He helped to found the NAACP [in hoods, as were three out of four of the pri-
1909]—the oldest and largest civil rights vately owned landfills. Six out of eight of How have you built on those first studies?
organization in the U.S.—and he did some the city’s incinerators were in Black neigh- I expanded my Houston study. I wanted
of the first empirical research in sociology. borhoods. Black people made up only to know whether the Houston example
25 percent of Houston’s population at the was an outlier. That’s how the first book
Your first paper, in 1979, was the first to time, yet 82 percent of the garbage in the on environmental justice came about. I
use hard data to quantify environmen- city was dumped on them. wrote Dumping in Dixie in 1989, but it
tal racism. What prompted you to look We lost in court because we couldn’t took me a year to get that book printed. I
into this? prove it was intentional discrimination. It had clear data showing that this discrim-
The study was done in support of Bean v. was easier to show scientifically that this ination was happening from Houston to
Southwestern Waste Management Corpo- pattern reflected a form of discrimination Dallas, to the Louisiana Cancer Alley, to
ration, the first U.S. lawsuit to challenge and not random data, but it’s more difficult the Alabama Black Belt, to West Virginia.
environmental racism using civil rights to prove it in court. But the publishers said, “There’s no such
law. The lawyer for that case was Linda thing as environmental injustice. Every-
McKeever Bullard, my wife at the time, and When you saw how widespread this pol- body is treated the same. The environ-
she needed numbers to back up the argu- lution was in Black communities, what ment is neutral.”
ment that locating solid waste landfills in did you think? All of what we’ve done since the Hous-
a particular neighborhood was a form of I was surprised. I was amazed and shocked. ton study has intentionally challenged the
discrimination. The community was mid- But I was even more surprised and shocked dominant paradigm. We argue that com-
dle class, suburban and an unlikely place and disappointed that the judge didn’t see munities that have somehow been left out
for a garbage dump. It was also predomi- it. This was 40-something years ago. The and left behind should be first in line when
nantly Black. judge was an old white man who was call- we talk about protection. Regulations
should protect the most vulnerable popu-
lations, especially children of color.
Black people made up only 25 percent Now environmental justice is not just in
of Houston’s population [in the 1970s], the U.S. It’s global. It has been adopted into
environmental reparations efforts. We talk
yet 82 percent of the garbage about making our communities whole
because of the damage the fossil-fuel
in the city was dumped on them. industry has caused. We talk about repair-
S4 SC I E N T I F IC A M ER IC A N OC TOBER 2 02 3
© 2023 Scientific American
Hazardous Divisions
Few studies have assessed the racial composition of waste- studies, the researchers found that a link between race and loca-
adjacent neighborhoods. But building on Robert D. Bullard and tion of hazardous waste sites (host areas) in the U.S. persists.
his colleagues’ 2007 work, Michael Mascarenhas and his collab- Also, income growth in host areas was much less than in nonhost
orators extended the analysis to include 2010 census data. Their areas even though both experienced the same increase in per-
results are stark. More than 30 years after Bullard’s Houston centage of residents who lived below the poverty line.
Community composition
of areas in the U.S.
that DO NOT host a
commercial hazardous
waste facility. 24.0% (2000)
10.3% (2000) 7.8% (2000)
28.3% (2010)
10.8% (2010) 10.3% (2010)
Rest of Population
Percent Asian and Pacific Islander Percent Native American
55.1% (2010)
59.0% (2000) 5.2% (2010) 0.9% (2010)
Community composition 4.1% (2000) 0.9% (2000)
of areas in the U.S.
that DO host a
commercial hazardous
waste facility.**
Source: “Toxic Waste and Race in Twenty-First Century America: Neighborhood Poverty and Racial Composition in the Siting of Hazardous
Community composition
of areas in the U.S.
Waste Facilities,” by Michael Mascarenhas, Ryken Grattet and Kathleen Mege, in Environment and Society, Vol. 12; 2021 (data)
ing our communities. In a global sense, What about global environmental ganizing. Our principles of environmental
reparations have translated into the Loss racism and the importance of using a justice resonated with the Global South.
and Damage Fund, a pot of money estab- global lens? Those countries that have contributed the
lished by higher-income countries at the We held our First National People of Color least to climate change are feeling that pain
2022 United Nations Climate Change Con- Environmental Leadership Summit in and suffering right now, as they have been
ference. The fund aims to mitigate harm 1991, and representatives attended from for decades.
more developed countries have caused in the vast majority of U.S. states, as well as The environmental and climate justice
less developed nations, which have con- several foreign countries and tribal na- framework that we use for the research in
tributed the least to climate change. tions. Our principles of environmental jus- the U.S. has expanded to universities
They’re feeling the pain and suffering first, tice—which include the safety of workers, across the world: South Africa, Australia,
worst and longest. It took 27 climate sum- the rights of Indigenous peoples and the Scotland. In some cases, they use not a
mits before the Loss and Damage Fund was honoring of nature—have been translated racial lens but an equity lens that looks at
adopted as a policy. into half a dozen languages. And globally, gender, income, former colonization sta-
The road to where we are now has not in countries that have suffered because of tus, and market forces that have stripped
been a bed of roses. We’ve always had colonialism, imperialism and racism, people of the power to decide for them-
detractors and people who have been well communities are now applying that same selves whether they want a new project in
funded in fights against us. environmental justice lens to their or- their communities.
This research is supported by the frame- How did race come to be such a defining taxes as a white person, those taxes were
work that we set in place, one that uses a com- factor in the U.S. for who gets clean air or not spent in a way that gave them equal pro-
munity-university partnership. The people water and who does not? tection and treatment.
who are most negatively impacted also carry Racism is deeply ingrained in America’s The Civil Rights Act was wasn’t passed
knowledge and solutions. These decisions DNA. Race has always played a significant until 1964. Racial redlining drew a line
affect their homes, their families and their part in who’s free, who gets educated and around Black and brown neighborhoods,
lives, so it’s important that they remain in- who is a citizen. There was slavery, then labeling them as dangerous and undesir-
volved. Community science is probably the emancipation and Jim Crow segregation, able for loans. That prevented our neigh-
fastest-growing part of the global climate where “separate but equal” was codified. If borhoods from benefiting from infrastruc-
and environmental justice movement. a Black person, for example, paid the same ture such as sewer and water systems.
Unbalanced Exposure Composition of U.S. counties* with Composition of U.S. counties with
Source: “Convergence of COVID-19 and Chronic Air Pollution Risks: Racial/Ethnic and Socioeconomic Inequities in the U.S.,” by Jayajit Chakraborty, in Environmental Research, Vol. 193; 2021 (data)
LOW exposure to COVID-19 and HIGH exposure to COVID-19 and
A range of variables, including air pollution and COVID-19
HIGH level of respiratory risks HIGH level of respiratory risks
infections, can affect respiratory health. Those risks from hazardous air pollutants from hazardous air pollutants
are not evenly divided. An analysis by Jayajit Chakraborty,
published in 2021, shows that people of color—as well
as people who are poor and uninsured—are overrep-
Composition of U.S. counties with Composition of U.S. counties with
resented in areas that experienced both high levels of LOW exposure to COVID-19 and HIGH exposure to COVID-19 and
hazardous air pollution and high rates of COVID early LOW level of respiratory risks LOW level of respiratory risks
in the pandemic. from hazardous air pollutants from hazardous air pollutants
12.7% 15.0%
1.6% 1.1% 8.8% 8.5%
70.3% 60.0%
2.4% 1.0% 1.1% 0.8%
85.5% 83.3%
0.8% 0.9% 1.5% 4.5%
*Study included 3,107 U.S. counties. Nearly 50% (1,515 counties) did not yield statistically significant results and are not included in these charts.
†
Demographics labels reflect terminology used in the source.
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Climate Vulnerability
Countries that emit more carbon dioxide per capita tend to be less vulnerable to the
effects of those emissions than other regions are. This conclusion is based on data
We’re now seeing the legacies of that from the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative’s country index, which quantifies a
racism. Neighborhoods that were redlined country’s vulnerability to climate hazards based on a number of variables—exposure,
100 years ago are hotter today because of sensitivity and ability to adapt across six areas: food, water, health, ecosystem service,
urban heat islands [see “Islands of Illness,” human habitat and infrastructure. Higher index values reflect higher levels of vulnera-
bility. When a country’s index value is plotted against its per capita carbon emissions,
on page S26]. They have no tree canopy or
a trend becomes visible and illustrates the vulnerability of less industrialized nations.
parks or green space. They’re more prone
to flooding because they lack flood protec-
More vulnerable
Niger
tion. They are more prone to industrial
Somalia
pollution. And we’ve learned that the same Chad
neighborhoods were more prone to COVID Central African Republic
The countries most vulnerable to climate
hospitalizations and deaths.
0.6 change are doing the least to cause it.
These are all examples of how past
racism keeps getting transferred forward:
it increases vulnerability.
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INNOVATIONS IN ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH EQUITY
Deaths attributable to Absolute number of global air-pollution-attributable Air-pollution-attributable deaths by Countries with highest
air pollution, by cause deaths (2019, middle-range estimate) sociodemographic index (SDI). SDI absolute number of air-
is an indicator of development, based pollution-attributable deaths.
on per capita income, educational (Death rate per 100,000
Cardiovascular attainment and fertility rate. people is in parentheses.)
diseases 3.55 million
n China (130)
llio
High SDI mi
5
1.8
Chronic respiratory li on
diseases 1. 3 1 m il
India (120)
n
llio
2.1
High-middle SDI
i
7m
Respiratory infec-
8m
Pakistan (105)
1.6
tions and tuberculosis
illio
Nigeria (92)
n
Neoplasms
Indonesia (72)
1.96
Neonatal disorders
6.67 millions deaths Middle SDI
m
il li
ease and lung cancer. These minute parti- er in pollution hotspots than in neighbor- together in one-room homes. And when
Source: Institute for Health Metrics Evaluation. Used with permission. All rights reserved (data)
cles slip through layers of lung tissue to ing areas. “Many of those very local hot- the same space is used for cooking, living
enter blood vessels and affect major or- spots of air pollution are inequitably dis- and sleeping, the entire family is exposed
gans such as the heart, kidneys and liver. tributed, in the U.S. especially, on the ba- to cookstove fumes. Cookstove fuel differs
They cause inflammation that touches ev- sis of race and socioeconomic status,” across classes, too. Poorer families burn
ery part of the body, including the brain, Brauer says. crop waste or freshly gathered wood, both
and have been linked to heart disease, Globally, the degree of risk from dead- of which create more smoke than the dry
neurodegenerative illnesses and even de- ly air correlates with a person’s income wood used by wealthier families. In cities,
mentia. “It seems as though pretty much and social class. The pattern can be seen at Brauer says, richer people live in homes
every organ system can be affected by pol- every scale, whether looking at the differ- set back from busy roads, whereas those
lution,” says environmental health re- ence in wealth across nations, neighbor- with fewer means are more likely to live
searcher Michael Brauer of the Universi- hoods within a city or neighbors in a small near factories and highways.
ty of British Columbia and the University town. When Brauer was conducting stud- Another pattern that researchers see
of Washington. ies of air quality in villages across Mexico over and over again is that those breathing
People who feel the health impacts and India, he could tell which families more toxic air are also those who are most
most keenly are those who live or work were most likely to breathe more danger- likely to experience societal stressors:
near sources of pollution, such as oil refin- ous air based solely on signs of poverty. poverty, racism, limited health-care ac-
eries, coal-burning power plants or free- “We see this pattern across the world, cess, and more. The combination increas-
ways with smoke-spewing trucks. Num- and you can even see it within a single vil- es their risk of disease. Researchers are
bers can swing wildly from day to day, but lage,” Brauer says. He has noticed that only now beginning to tease apart how the
PM 2.5 levels can get six to eight times high- poorer families tend to live crowded chronic stress of discrimination makes
Rates of death from air pollution are falling, although they A closer look reveals that the rate of death from indoor particulates has dropped sharply over
remain much higher in countries and territories with low the past few decades thanks to cleaner cookstoves. Mortality from outdoor particulates,
levels of income and education and high fertility rates. however, is rising everywhere except in regions with high-SDI groups.
Both Household and Outdoor Pollution Household Air Pollution from Solid Fuels Outdoor Particulate-Matter Pollution
Deaths Attributable to Air Pollution (per 100,000 people)
200
Low SDI
Low SDI
Low-middle SDI
150
Middle SDI
100
Source: Institute for Health Metrics Evaluation. Used with permission. All rights reserved ( data)
gins to worsen. “We’ve gone through this worse and never improve,” Brauer says. can significantly reduce blood flow to the
in high-income countries,” Brauer says. “We really do see improvement.” brain, which influences stroke risk. But a
“But many low- and middle-income coun- Such improvements happen when study tracking more than 9,000 residents
tries are still in the earlier phases of this arc nations prioritize clean air and healthy in Beijing found that living amid greenery
of industrial development.” citizens over short-term profits. Some mitigated this potential harm. And other
Recognizing this problem has prompt- high-income countries have introduced research has shown that plants might also
ed some low- and middle-income coun- stringent policies to control pollution that minimize heart disease risk from PM 2.5.
tries to make changes. Rwanda, for exam- have already led to measurable health im- Today, armed with cleaner technolo-
ple, has focused on off-grid solar-powered provements. In the U.S., one estimate gies and an awareness of toxic air’s deadly
systems to provide electricity to rural ar- found that laws controlling vehicle ex- effects, there’s a chance that less industri-
eas. As of 2021, nearly 50 percent of the haust lowered mortality from traffic-re- alized countries could continue to choose
country had access to electricity, with lated PM 2.5 by 2.4 times between 2008 progress without pollution. “This is not
much of that a result of solar power. India, and 2017. In London, the creation of an an either-or situation,” Anenberg says.
too, is working to increase the amount of ultralow-emission zone in the central part “We can do both of these at the same
electricity it gets from renewable sources. of the city has reduced the amount of sick time.” For clean and healthy air, this may
In May the Indian government announced leave by an estimated 18 percent. be the only way to achieve true equity.
plans to pause proposals for new coal- Another way to offset the health effects
Jyoti Madhusoodanan is a science journalist
burning power plants for the next five of pollution and simultaneously clean up based in Portland, Ore. She covers science, health
years and focus instead on renewable ener- some of our environmental mess is and health equity for Nature, Undark, Science, and
gy. “It’s not a case that places get worse and through planting trees. Exposure to PM 2.5 other outlets.
S1 2 SC I E N T I F IC A M ER IC A N OC TOBER 2 02 3
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INNOVATIONS IN ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH EQUITY
JOHNNYE LEWIS the same language to talk about these living there have been exposed for de-
problems, and tribal members were paying cades. At high doses, uranium in drinking
CLINICAL TRIALS DRIVEN BY with their health. water can cause kidney damage, and
COMMUNITY PARTNERSHIPS “I wanted to build a common language exposure to contaminated air can lead
After Johnnye Lewis moved to New Mexico to move toward solutions,” Lewis says. to lung cancer and other respiratory
in 1989, she learned about the legacy of the In 1919 Congress permitted companies diseases. Preliminary results suggest
land. She took a job as a consultant for Los to excavate ore deposits on tribal lands that prenatal and early childhood expo-
Alamos National Laboratory, where she with little oversight. Today, after sure to uranium can impair neu-
helped study the ecological and health decades of mining for vana- ral development.
impacts of nuclear research. That work, dium, gold, uranium, and In her role as an envi-
along with her involvement in community other metals, at least ronmental toxicolo-
efforts to reconstruct historic radiation- 160,000 abandoned gist and director of
exposure doses during the nuclear era, led mines remain in the University of
her to start attending community meetings. the western U.S. New Mexico MET-
She listened to residents discuss their con- More than 500 ALS Superfund
cerns about the aftereffects of the atomic abandoned ura- Research Center,
bomb, which was developed nearby, as well nium mines, Lewis is connect-
as ongoing health impacts from uranium along with 1,100 ing research with
mining on Navajo Nation land. It seemed to uranium waste interventions that
Lewis that scientists, politicians and mem- sites, are on Navajo could immediately
bers of Indigenous groups weren’t using land, and people help people. Studies
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BERENDINA VAN WENDEL DE JOODE Van Wendel de Joode’s research led
the Costa Rican government to provide
PESTICIDE PROTECTOR clean water to a community whose ground-
Anyone who works on or lives near a water is contaminated with pesticides
banana plantation in Costa Rica is and Escherichia coli. After her work with
subject to relatively high pesticide agronomists showed that plastic fruit
exposure. That’s because farmers bags were just as effective against
don’t leave anything to chance. Every insect damage when treated with mus-
time a banana tree sprouts a leaf, it’s tard or without any chemicals at all,
newly vulnerable to fungal infection, growers began phasing out the
so farmers spray fungicide from crop insecticide-treated versions.
dusters and enclose growing fruits in Van Wendel de Joode is building
plastic bags loaded with insecticide to maps of aerial-pesticide hotspots
deter bugs. to show which ones are near inhabited
Berendina van Wendel de Joode areas. And her team has started a pilot
has been working to change that. In the program to test a play-based learning
1990s, as part of an internship, she program for schoolchildren, including
moved to Costa Rica from her home One of van Wendel de Joode’s proj- those with pesticide-induced neurode-
country of the Netherlands to study ects is the Infants’ Environmental Health velopmental delays.
farmworker exposure to the herbicide Study, a large-scale study of 300 The next generation of Costa Rican
paraquat. She returned to Costa Rica in mother- child pairs in the Matina District environmental epidemiologists is now
2004 and has been at the National Uni- of Limón Province. The project aims to being trained by van Wendel de Joode,
versity of Costa Rica ever since. determine which factors—such as how says Ana Maria Mora, a physician and
Van Wendel de Joode focuses her far a child’s home is from a plantation epidemiologist at the University of Cali-
research on how prenatal and childhood or whether their parent works in agricul- fornia, Berkeley’s Center for Environmen-
exposure to pesticides affects health ture—lead to higher chemical exposures tal Research and Community Health.
and development in rural areas of the and how that affects overall health and Mora worked with van Wendel de
country. It’s a complex problem: in the neurodevelopment. So far early results Joode and holds her former mentor in
populations van Wendel de Joode works have revealed that women with evidence high regard. “She’s passionate about
with, environmental-health dangers from of fungicide exposure during pregnancy Costa Rica and improving people’s
pesticide exposure are layered on top of had infants with more respiratory infec- health,” Mora says. “As a Costa Rican
limited education, poverty and low tions and impaired neurodevelopment citizen, I feel incredibly grateful for what
food security. at age one. she’s done.”
by scientists at the center found that trials by researchers seeking “clean” data. closely with those who have the most
arsenic and uranium can displace zinc in Community members in the Red Water at stake. She “has developed that rapport
proteins that repair damaged DNA, which Pond Road area also helped Lewis and her with the community, and we trust her,”
might increase cancer risk. Lewis’s group team design the Navajo Birth Cohort Keyanna says. “It’s taken a long time to
is now testing whether zinc supplements Study, which followed pregnant women do that.”
could counteract this displacement and and their babies through the children’s Lewis started out in community engage-
improve people’s health. first year of life, tracing their development, ment, working on recycling and food co-op
Lewis tailored the trial, as she does health and environmental exposure to projects before returning to academics and
with all her projects, to the needs of the toxic metals. The study, which began specializing in toxicology. She says her
people she works with. She and her team in 2013, has been extended and will con- background and her recognition of the
have consulted with the Red Water Pond tinue to track the children as part of the interconnection between the environment
Road community, whose tribal land is National Institutes of Health’s ongoing and human health have helped her work
sandwiched between two abandoned ura- National Environmental Influences on with Indigenous communities. They, in
nium mines in New Mexico, to design mul- Child Health Outcomes initiative. turn, have helped her improve the science.
tiple clinical trials. With community mem- Teracita (Terry) Keyanna, who grew up “Science is a special training I have, but it
bers’ guidance, for example, the scientists in Red Water Pond, says other scientists should just be one piece coming to the
built their preliminary zinc trial to include had informed them that the land was con- table,” Lewis says.
both elders and people with chronic condi- taminated but then left without address-
Katherine Bourzac is a journalist based in
tions such as kidney damage—groups that ing the problem, something that has
San Francisco, who covers environment, climate,
have had the highest exposure to metals made it hard for residents to trust outsid- chemistry, health and computing for Nature,
but are usually excluded from such clinical ers. Lewis has proved herself by working Science News, and other publications.
A Growing Fungal Threat them to new areas. This may be one way
Coccidioides has expanded into the Pacific
Northwest from the southwestern states,
Valley fever hits outdoor workers disproportionately hard such as California, Arizona and New Mex-
BY ASHLI BLOW ico, where it is endemic. Researchers at the
University of California, Irvine, predict that
Farmworkers in California’s Central Val- search on the condition has remained lim- if warming trends continue and droughts
ley know that when the tule fog settles over ited, but it’s clear that the disease dispro- persist, Valley fever could eventually
the ground after a heavy rain, some of them portionately strikes people in the most vul- stretch as far north as the U.S.-Canada bor-
are about to get sick. Within a few weeks of nerable populations. der and as far northeast as North Dakota.
the dense fog’s arrival, many of the labor- After decades of neglect, however, Amanda Gomez-Weaver, a doctoral stu-
ers grow tired and develop headaches and there’s a new push at both the local and fed- dent in environmental health sciences at the
fevers. Each time, those who have evaded eral levels to find out more about the extent University of California, Berkeley, has been
illness wonder whether they will be next. of Valley fever’s threat. In addition, a small investigating the correlation between cli-
Experienced farmworkers expect this af- group of researchers is working to under- mate-influenced dust exposure and Valley
fliction, but when Rosalinda Guillen ar- stand how to treat and even prevent it. That fever epidemiology. Previous research had
rived from Washington State 25 years ago, knowledge can’t come soon enough, Guil- indicated that spores can become airborne
she had never seen anything like it. She len says: “All we really know is that farm- anytime dirt is disrupted, making people
watched, helpless, as other farmworkers workers may already be sick.” working in construction and agriculture
coughed and tried to catch their breath. particularly susceptible. Gomez-Weaver
That was the first time Guillen, a season- GROWING EVIDENCE has also found a strong association between
al farmworker and agricultural justice lead- Valley fever thrives both in dirt and in hu- Valley fever incidence and ambient dust, in-
er, heard the term “Valley fever.” The dis- man lungs. After a heavy rain, the fast- dicating that spores become suspended in
ease is caused by two species of shapeshift- growing Coccidioides spreads through the the air and linger there much like other at-
ing fungus in the genus Coccidioides, both of wet soil like mold through bread. When it mospheric particulates. This work has con-
which flourish when exposed to moist dries out, its spores mingle with dusty top- vinced her that anyone who spends most of
springs and arid summers—like those in the soil and can be inhaled as airborne patho- their day in dusty outdoor areas in the west-
San Joaquin Valley, where the fever got its gens. Once they’re in the lungs, those ern U.S. would need a Coccidioides vaccine
name. Guillen had not encountered such a spores take on a wholly different form, each to remain uninfected. To date, however, no
thing in her home state. But because of dri- morphing into a reproductive cell in which vaccine is available for any fungal disease.
er landscapes and warming temperatures, new spores multiply. The full cells burst A vaccine, Gomez-Weaver says, “would be
the fungus’s range appears to be spreading. within five days, releasing spores that trav- the most powerful tool in our arsenal.”
No one knows for sure whether wind is el throughout the body. The fungus can
moving Coccidioides north or whether it has cause coughing, fevers, body aches, fatigue, THE DATA GAP
been there undisturbed until now. But even rashes and appetite loss. In up to 10 per- Valley fever’s mortality rate is about one
as researchers have been discovering it in cent of those infected, some symptoms can death per 1,000 infections, according to in-
new pockets throughout the western U.S., last for years. The Centers for Disease Con- fectious disease physician John Galgiani,
many state health departments have failed trol and Prevention report that about 200 director of the University of Arizona’s Val-
to track it. What limited data exist indicate people die from the disease every year. ley Fever Center for Excellence. It doesn’t
that 40 percent of cases become symptom- Bridget Barker, a mycologist and genet- need to be so high. There are medications
atic, and among those the people most at icist at Northern Arizona University, has to treat it, but patients often receive incor-
risk of life-threatening disease are Latino, spent her decades-long career figuring out rect diagnoses.
Asian and Native American people, who how to detect Coccidioides and understand Physicians and other health-care prac-
contract Valley fever at two to four times the its role in the larger ecosystem. She and her titioners who work where Valley fever is
rate of white people. That increased risk team designed a probe to extract it from the prevalent often don’t know to test for it, be-
seems to be primarily attributable to their soil so they can analyze it. Their research has cause there’s a general lack of awareness
frequent exposure and long hours spent in revealed the fungus’s resilience: Coccidioides about the disease and because its symp-
dusty outdoor locations, although genetic needs moisture to grow, flourishing when toms can be mistaken for other respiratory
variations haven’t yet been ruled out. the rains arrive, then stagnating when the illnesses, such as pneumonia. Patients usu-
Many of those affected lack basic health ground dries up again. Its spores remain in ally end up with antibiotics or other medi-
care, and some are afraid to seek medical the topsoil, where they can survive for years. cations that kill bacteria but not fungi.
help for fear of employer retaliation or even Barker and others refer to this process as The CDC estimates that only one in 33
deportation. As a result, Valley fever is un- the “grow-and-blow” cycle: once the fun- cases is reported and has suggested that
dersurveilled and underdiagnosed, and its gus stops growing and becomes dehydrat- hundreds of thousands of infections have
study and treatment are underfunded. Re- ed, wind picks up the spores and carries probably been missed over the past 10
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INNOVATIONS IN ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH EQUITY
years. Because the organization does not tenuated live spores of Coccidioides that Galgiani believes that if funding allows, a
mandate that public health departments can’t reproduce but still prompt an immune human version of his vaccine could be ready
report Valley fever—only 26 states have reaction in the body. The response they elic- for approval within eight years. That fund-
submitted case numbers—it has no data at it is so robust that a veterinary pharmaceu- ing may finally be within reach. After Valley
all from some states where the fungus is en- tical company has licensed the rights to the fever’s annual incidence surpassed 20,000
demic, such as Texas and Idaho. vaccine and is seeking approval from the cases in 2019, two congressional represen-
Farmworkers and laborers who toil in Department of Agriculture for its use in pets. tatives—Kevin McCarthy of California and
the dusty outdoors, most often people of Galgiani has now moved on to humans. David Schweikert of Arizona—called on
color, have been trying to get the attention One potential benefit of a Valley fever the National Institutes of Health to make a
of state and federal agencies for decades. vaccine is that it could be a one-and-done substantial investment in Valley fever re-
“If something is harming us,” Guillen says, kind of thing—unlike those for influenza search. Last year the NIH complied, dedi-
“it’s hard to prove based on the way that or even tetanus, which must be updated cating $4.5 million in funding to the cause.
data-collecting systems are structured.” regularly. According to studies by microbi- It’s about time, Guillen says. She has
ologist Deborah Fuller of the University of seen how agricultural workers are made
PROOF OF CONCEPT Washington School of Medicine, people vulnerable just by the dint of their sur-
To show that a vaccine could be effective pro- who get Valley fever develop lifelong immu- roundings, toiling in jobs that expose them
tection against Coccidioides, Galgiani and nity. That, Fuller says, “is the golden egg.” to agrochemicals, dehydration, extreme
his team started by focusing on an immu- Fuller’s team is pursuing both DNA- and heat, and more. Growing up in Washington
nization for dogs with the infection. Dogs RNA-based vaccines, each of which would State, working in the fields herself starting
are vulnerable to the disease, too. Because prompt the body to produce proteins that at age 16, she never had to worry about Val-
they explore the environment through their trigger an immune response. Fuller notes ley fever. But now she’s watching it creep in
noses and can inhale large quantities of fun- that any vaccine against Coccidioides would and threaten the people she’s tried so hard
gal spores in a short time, they contract Val- serve a greater purpose than just fighting to protect. She’s fighting to make sure some
ley fever more often than humans do, and Valley fever: it could allow researchers to of the most invisible workers are seen.
their symptoms can be more severe. understand immune response to other fun-
The canine vaccine Galgiani helped to gal diseases and provide insight into how to Ashli Blow is a journalist who covers environmental sci-
develop has already proved itself. It uses at- better treat such conditions. ence and justice with a focus on climate adaptation.
A Fanged Crisis
More people die from snakebite envenomation than
from almost any other neglected tropical disease
BY CASSANDRA WILLYARD
Inside a two-story brick building, not far one by counteracting a venomous bite.
from the orchids and iguanas of the botani- Despite the existence of such antivenom,
cal garden in Medellín, Colombia, wildlife however, people continue to die. Aspril-
technician Jorge Asprilla demonstrates la’s work is part of a project aiming to
how to extract venom from a snake. First, change that.
he uses a metal hook with an extended han- Snakebites aren’t limited to low-in-
dle to snag a five-foot-long pit viper. Then come countries. Australia, for instance,
he has to grab its head without getting bit- has more venomous snakes than nonven-
ten—a skill he has perfected after working omous ones. But because of lifestyle fac-
for more than 25 years with dozens of ven- tors and access to health care, the country
omous snake species. records relatively few deaths from snake-
Soon Asprilla has the snake’s spade- bites every year. In many low-income
shaped head firmly in his grasp and its nations, dangerous bites are a pervasive
muscular body pinned between his legs. threat. Most people bitten by snakes live
The snake in his grip is known locally as a in poverty, many of them in rural areas far
mapaná, and this species is responsible from good medical care. They are rice
for most of the snakebites in Colombia. farmers who tend to their fields in bare
Asprilla has been bitten twice since he feet, herders who walk their cattle in the
started working at the University of bush, families who sleep on the floor in
Antioquia’s serpentarium, but he isn’t one homes with abundant entry points for
to elaborate on the experience. “Duele snakes and the rodents they feed on.
mucho,” he says. (“It hurts a lot.”) “These people, these farmers, are voice-
Venomous snakes bite about 5,000 less. They don’t have any good representa-
people a year in Colombia; between 20 tion,” says Abdulrazaq Habib, an infectious
and 40 of those bitten die from their and tropical disease doctor at Bayero Uni-
injuries. And although Colombia has the versity in Kano, Nigeria. For many victims,
ability to produce and distribute anti- antivenom comes too late or not at all.
venom—the antidote for venomous snake- Exactly how many people are bitten,
bites—about 20 percent of the victims and how many of those people die, is dif-
who need antivenom don’t receive it. ficult to determine. Official records often
Globally as many as 2.7 million people are underestimate the incidence. Victims
envenomed by snakes every year. Of these, might die before they reach the clinic, or
up to 400,000 are permanently disabled, they might seek care from a traditional
and estimates suggest that 81,000 to healer. Even those who do go to the doc-
138,000 die. Venomous snakebites may tor might not be counted. In many coun-
receive less attention from health organi- tries, doctors aren’t obligated to report
zations than contagious viruses and bac- snakebites to the government. Estimates
terial infections, but their toxic effects based on household surveys aren’t always
make them one of the deadliest neglected accurate, either. What is clear is that India
tropical diseases. and Pakistan bear the brunt of the impact.
Asprilla moves the hook into the ma- According to one estimate, in 2019 more
paná’s mouth, just behind its pallid, than 75 percent of the people who died
curved fangs. As he massages the snake’s from snakebites globally were residents of
head with his hand, a bead of gold venom those countries. In India, venomous The mapaná, a species of pit viper, is responsible
oozes out of a tooth. This liquid is respon- snakes kill some 50,000 people a year. In for most of the venomous snakebites in
Colombia. Here wildlife technician Jorge Asprilla
sible for both life and death: it can kill a the U.S., although 7,000 or 8,000 people is preparing to collect mapaná venom to use for
human in days, and it can be used to pro- are bitten by venomous snakes every year, antivenom production.
duce the antivenom that might save some- about five of them die.
U9M2CZ
The World Health Organization, under a patient, some of those antibodies will
pressure from some of its member states, bind to the various components of
added snakebite envenoming to its list of the snake venom and neutralize it. Be-
neglected tropical diseases in 2017 and, two cause different kinds of snakes carry dif-
years later, laid out a strategy for prevention ferent toxins, the antivenom typically
and control. The organization aims to halve must match the species. The approach
the number of deaths and cases of disability prevents venom from causing damage,
by 2030. But the world has made little prog- but it can’t reverse damage that has al-
ress toward that goal, which many experts ready been done, so it works best in the
believe is unrealistic. first couple of hours after the bite. That
On the surface, reducing snakebite means a person must reach a treatment
deaths seems easy, says David Williams, facility quickly, the facility must have the
a toxinologist who assesses antivenoms appropriate antivenom in stock, and a
for the WHO. Dig a bit deeper, however, doctor must administer it. The system is
and the true complexity of the problem labor-intensive, inefficient and littered
emerges. Not every country has the same with obstacles.
variety of venomous snakes. Species with Antivenom production in Colombia
different toxins require different anti- has dwindled in recent years from three
venoms. The world produces less anti- sources down to one. Colombia’s National
venom than it needs, and production Institute of Health produces about 10,000
quality varies. The cost to manufacture to 20,000 vials a year. That’s not enough,
the remedy is more than most patients can according to calculations by Sebastián
afford. And those bitten often live in re- Estrada-Gómez, a toxinologist at the Uni-
mote areas where they can’t access anti- versity of Antioquia who helped to create
venom quickly. the antivenom company Tech Life Saving,
The most intractable obstacle, however, a spin-off of the university and part of a
is apathy. Snakebite envenomings are “the biotech development firm called Tech
most neglected among the neglected,” says Innovation Group. With help from an
snakebite expert Mohammad Abul Faiz, angel investor, Estrada-Gómez has
a retired physician and current president started to produce antivenom just outside
of the Toxicology Society of Bangladesh. Medellín with his “crew”: Diabla, Elisa,
Few politicians seem to care about solving Margara, and more than a dozen other
the problem. sleek, brown and white horses that are
Ending the snakebite crisis will require part of his antivenom production. The
education, cooperation, research and, government provides liquid antivenom,
most of all, money. Countries need to but Estrada-Gómez is working to make a Erney Arboleda stands next to the coffee tree
make the problem a priority, Williams freeze-dried product that doesn’t require where he was bitten by a snake commonly known
says: “If they choose not to invest in [the refrigeration and has a longer shelf life. as an eyelash viper. He killed the viper to show
physicians at the city hospital, an hour’s drive away,
problem], then, to be perfectly honest, it
what species had bitten him. After a local search
doesn’t matter what the rest of us do. We THINK LOCAL for the antidote, he was treated three hours later,
will never change anything.” Sri Lanka, an island nation slightly larger then kept under observation at the hospital for four
than West Virginia, is home to about 100 days before being sent home to rest.
PRODUCTION WOES species of snakes, roughly a quarter of
Antivenom production today is a mod- which are venomous. Experts estimate
ernized version of a technique first used that as many as 60,000 people there are
120 years ago. Technicians inject minus- bitten by venomous snakes every year, of the venomous snakebites in India. Sri
cule quantities of venom into horses or and 200 of those people die. The country Lanka also is home to all these snakes, but
sheep over several weeks, then harvest gets nearly all its antivenom from India, its most frequent envenoming is from the
their blood and extract the antibodies— the largest producer and exporter of hump-nosed pit viper, for which no com-
all of them. In most cases, Williams says, antivenom in the world. mercially available antivenom exists.
“What you’re getting in the vial is not just Indian antivenom targets the “big Although its bites are rarely fatal, they can
antibodies that are specific to the venom four” species of venomous snakes in the cause excruciating pain and swelling. In
of the snake but antibodies for all the other region: the Indian cobra, the common some cases, they can lead to kidney dam-
antigens that horse was ever exposed to.” krait, Russell’s viper and the saw-scaled age. Tissue death around the bite may
Once the antivenom gets injected into viper. These four species account for most require skin grafts or amputation. The
S20 SC I E N T I F IC A M ER IC A N OC TOBER 2 02 3
© 2023 Scientific American
bites are most severe in small children. its own antivenom. About a decade ago col- venom production facilities in the world.
Complicating the problem even fur- laborators from the U.S., Costa Rica and Sri The institute produced more than 3,000
ther, antivenom against the same species Lanka formed a partnership to do just that. vials of antivenom targeting five species,
may not work equally well in different lo - A U.S.-based nonprofit called Animal including the hump-nosed pit viper. Re-
cales. Some evidence suggests that anti- Venom Research International helped to searchers at the University of Peradeniya
venom developed using venom from set up Sri Lanka’s first serpentarium and in Sri Lanka then used those vials to launch
Indian Russell’s vipers, for instance, is train staff to extract venom. Sri Lankan a clinical trial. The trials are ongoing, and
less effective against venom from Sri technicians collected the venom and no results have been published.
Lankan Russell’s vipers. shipped it to the Clodomiro Picado Insti- But Kalana Maduwage, a physician and
In an ideal world, Sri Lanka would make tute in Costa Rica, one of the premier anti- antivenom researcher who was part of the
project, says that data showed just a single rian government spent only $192,000 on potential complications, it’s not uncom-
vial of the anti venom can neutralize its antivenom program, which is enough mon for physicians in these small clinics
hump-nosed viper bites. For Russell’s money to treat about 4 percent of the to doubt their ability to treat a snakebite
viper bites, the antivenom seems to pro- country’s snakebites. To halve the num- and send patients to a larger hospital. One
duce fewer allergic reactions than other ber of deaths, as the WHO hopes to do, survey found that only a third of Indian
available options. Nigeria would have to spend about 50 health-care professionals knew how to
The ultimate goal was to transfer the times that amount. correctly manage adverse reactions to
technology from Costa Rica to Sri Lanka. When free antivenom is not available, antivenom. “Invariably what happens is
Maduwage even trained in Costa Rica to the cost to individuals can be prohibitive. that these patients are then sent off to
learn how to produce the antivenom. But The therapy runs anywhere from $60 to larger hospitals,” Ralph says. The result-
when he got back to Sri Lanka, he and his $150 per vial, and a patient might need ing delay in treatment can be a matter of
colleagues couldn’t get funding to push the more than one. Yet 40 percent of the life or death.
project forward. The serpentarium still Nigerian population makes less than $2 The health-care workers’ lack of trust
exists, and Maduwage, who is now based a day. Antivenom, Habib says, “is a cata- in antivenom spills over into the general
at the University of New England in Armi- strophic health expenditure.” On top of public. “If you invite the community to
dale, Australia, says the Sri Lankan gov- that, patients must also cover the high cost come to the hospital and you are not able
ernment is willing to buy the antivenom if of bite-associated injuries, which have to to provide services, then why will they
the country can produce it. But the team be treated at a hospital. Because carpet come?” Faiz says.
needs at least $10 million to build the pro- viper bites cause bleeding and tissue decay, This fear and mistrust can be coun-
duction facility. He understands why in- some victims may need blood transfusions. tered with education campaigns. When
vestors might be hesitant. Antivenom is Unluckier ones may need dead tissue sliced snakebite cases ballooned in Baringo
expensive to produce, and demand in Sri out of their wound or a limb amputated. County, Kenya, in 2018, Doctors Without
Lanka is limited, so it could take years to Because hospital costs are so high, Borders stepped in. The organization
turn a profit, Maduwage says. “This is not many people try to avoid hospitals alto- helped to train 200 health-care workers
an easy money-making project.” gether. “Victims visit traditional healers to manage snakebites and taught commu-
The lack of profitability is an obstacle not first,” Habib says. “It’s cheaper and prob- nity members how to avoid bites and pro-
just in Sri Lanka but worldwide, says José ably more accessible.” It’s also ineffective. vide first aid for victims. Julien Potet, an
María Gutiérrez Gutiérrez, a toxinologist The therapies these healers provide— adviser on policy for neglected tropical
and former director of the Clodomiro Pic- sucking venom from the wound, applying diseases at Doctors Without Borders in
ado Research Institute. The problem might tourniquets and offering charred animal Paris, says that training, combined with
be one that the market alone can’t solve. bones called “black stones”—not only better antivenom access, made a signifi-
Rather he says there needs to be greater delay access to care but also can lead to cant difference in Baringo County. It’s
involvement by the public sector, an additional medical complications. only one example, Potet says, but it shows
approach that has worked well in Costa Even when antivenom is accessible, what is possible.
Rica. The Clodomiro Picado Institute, obstacles persist. The therapy can cause
which is publicly funded, not only provides life-threatening anaphylaxis or other aller- NEW ADVANCES
enough antivenom to meet Costa Rica’s gic reactions because of horse proteins in Snakebite envenomation may be one of
needs but also ships antivenom throughout the antivenom or contamination during the most neglected tropical diseases, but a
Central America as well as to countries in production. The risk of a reaction can be 40 growing number of people are paying
South America and sub-Saharan Africa. percent or more depending on the patient’s attention and working from all angles to
The country has an abundance of venomous susceptibility, the number of vials admin- try to improve patients’ outcomes. A vari-
snakes but has managed to keep snakebite istered and the purity of the antivenom. In ety of tools are moving forward, from tests
deaths low, with three or fewer a year. serious cases, doctors might have to pro- to detect venom in the blood, to antiven-
vide adrenaline to counteract the reaction oms that are easier to produce, to oral med-
COSTLY CURE or even intubate the patient. When hospi- ications that could help even before victims
Bolstering antivenom production will tals aren’t properly equipped to deal with arrive at the hospital.
address only part of the problem. The these complications, antivenom can kill. In Sri Lanka, delayed care isn’t a result
remedy must be not just accessible but Worries over these outcomes have of transportation difficulties or avoidance
affordable. It is often neither. In Nigeria, made some doctors and nurses too ner- by doctors—people who have been bitten
for example, a small and bad-tempered vous to use antivenom therapies. Ravikar typically make it to the hospital within an
snake called the West African carpet viper Ralph, a physician at the Christian Medi- hour. Once there, however, the country’s
is responsible for most of the country’s cal College in Vellore, India, says that snakebite management guidelines advise
bites. The government supplies anti- snakebite patients often travel from a physicians to wait for a patient to develop
venom free of cost, but there is not enough remote area to their closest medical cen- signs of systemic envenoming, such as
to help everyone in need. In 2017 the Nige- ter for treatment. But given all the bleeding or kidney failure, to avoid caus-
S22 SC I E N T I F IC A M ER IC A N OC TOBER 2 02 3
© 2023 Scientific American
These powdered antivenom samples being developed by the company Tech Life Saving are shelf-stable for up to two years.
ing unnecessary side effects in case the ments are also pricey, and different hearing people talk about a universal
snake was not venomous or didn’t release combinations of antibodies would still be antivenom for decades,” the WHO’s Wil-
any venom. (For some species of venom- required for each snake species. liams says, adding that the process takes
ous snakes, roughly half of bites are “dry” Ophirex, a California-based biotech an inordinate amount of time. “We’re still
bites with no venom.) “By the time the company, aims to eliminate that problem waiting to see it happen.” Ideally, he
patient develops clinical features, organ and is pursuing a near-universal therapy. would like to see more money and energy
damage has already started,” Maduwage Because snake venom is such a motley spent on improving existing antivenom
says. That’s why he started working on a combination of molecules, Ophirex is tar- production to enhance potency and safety.
rapid bedside test to detect snake venom geting what seems to be a common com- Jean-Philippe Chippaux, an expert on
in blood. “I know how to develop this ponent: an enzyme called secretory phos- snakebites and former director of research
point-of-care device. I have the technol- pholipase A2 (sPLA2) that occurs in at the French National Research Institute
ogy,” he says. “It was hindered by finances 95 percent of snake venoms. In 2021 the for Sustainable Development, agrees.
and funding.” company began a randomized, double- Even if new drugs existed, hospitals
Researchers are also working on better blinded, placebo-controlled study—the would have to stock them, physicians
antidotes. Snake venom consists of a com- gold standard of clinical trials—to evalu- would have to be trained to use them, and
plex concoction of toxins, made from doz- ate the safety and efficacy of its drug vare- patients would have to be able to afford
ens of different proteins and peptides. spladib in people who had been bitten by them, Chippaux says. “I don’t mind re-
Monoclonal antibodies, which are lab- venomous snakes. If it works, the therapy searchers experimenting with new, shiny
made antibodies produced in human won’t be a panacea, but it might buy peo- tools as long as they don’t suck all the
cells, could be manufactured faster than ple time to reach the hospital, Potet says. money out of the field,” he adds.
antivenoms—in days instead of months— These therapies will be valuable tools In theory, reducing snakebite deaths—
and could avoid some of the allergic reac- if they prove safe and effective, but ap - even by the amount suggested by the
tions they cause. But monoclonal treat- proval is probably years away. “I’ve been WHO—is not impossible. Better anti-
Y8M6A7V
S24 SC I E N T I F IC A M ER IC A N OC TOBER 2 02 3
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INNOVATIONS IN ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH EQUITY
S26 SC I E N T I F IC A M ER IC A N OC TOBER 2 02 3
© 2023 Scientific American
INNOVATIONS IN ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH EQUITY
Hot Zones and Racial Bias
Today people of color live in hotter urban neighborhoods than do other groups. WHO IS AFFECTED TODAY?
These areas have fewer shade trees and parks, have more houses with minimal air The ratings in the HOLC maps were based, to a
conditioning, and are closer to heat-generating large roadways. These patterns degree, on the racial background of people in a
have roots in “redlining,” the refusal of banks and other financial institutions to particular neighborhood. Places with large Black
invest in these neighborhoods. In the 1930s the Home Owners’ Loan Corporation populations were more likely to be rated “hazardous.”
(HOLC) began drawing maps that rated certain areas as bad for loans. The maps Currently those areas are likely to have the hottest
city temperatures, and they have retained their
led to a more industrial, heat-retaining environment in some places. Summer tem-
historic population characteristics and a low rate of
peratures in formerly redlined neighborhoods are now about 2.6 degrees Celsius investment in improved conditions. In a 2022
(4.7 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than the average for their cities, according to a analysis, places that had a “best” rating on the old
study in Climate. The difference is largest in the Southeast and the West. maps were two-thirds white; places that had the
lowest map ratings were 61 percent Black or Hispanic.
A (“Best”) 66%
Sources: “The Effects of Historical Housing Policies on Resident Exposure to Intra-Urban Heat: A Study of 108 US Urban Areas,” by Jeremy S. Hoffman et al., in Climate, Vol. 8; 2020 (temperature data);
B (“Still Desirable”)
Black* Hispanic White Rest of
(non- Population
Each dot represents the
temperature of a single Hispanic)
C (“Definitely Declining”)
neighborhood, derived
from satellite data
D (“Hazardous”) 32% 29% 14% 25%
−5 −4 −3 −2 −1 1 2 3 4
Degrees cooler City average Degrees warmer Calculated present-day (2020) population of historic
Present-Day Summer Temperature Compared to City Average (°C) HOLC rated “D” regions: 8,251,378 people
*
Demographics labels reflect terminology used in the source.
Midwest Northeast
A A
B B
C C
D D
−5 −4 −3 −2 −1 1 2 3 4 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1 1 2 3 4
West South
A A
B B
C C
D D
−5 −4 −3 −2 −1 1 2 3 4 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1 1 2 3 4
Graphic by Jen Christiansen and Miriam Quick OCTOBER 202 3 SC I E N T I F IC A M ER IC A N.COM S27
© 2023 Scientific American
This section
was produced
independently
with support from
www.ScientificAmerican.com/InnovationsIn/environmental-health-equity
International Code Council (ICC), an asso- and local governments, resulting in a con- codes. It should also provide more funding
ciation of building safety professionals. Af- fusing patchwork. A 2020 study by the Fed- for jurisdictions to meet hazard-resistant
ter rigorous testing of building methods, eral Emergency Management Agency codes, in addition to energy-efficient ones.
postdisaster surveys and other research, ex- (FEMA) found that 65 percent of counties, It shouldn’t take deadly hurricanes, tor-
perts develop a consensus set of model codes cities and towns have not adopted the most nadoes or floods for governments to decide
updated every three years. The codes apply recent codes and that 30 percent of new con- to adopt strong building codes. These mea-
to locally relevant hazards, from how high to struction is happening in places that have no sures are part of climate resilience, good
raise a house to avoid flooding in Louisiana code or have not updated theirs in 20 years. fiscal planning and common sense. They
to how much shaking a building in San Although San Antonio, Tex., has up-to- should be in place before disaster strikes.
W proposed in 1543 that the sun able universe at a staggering trillion or more.
was the center of our solar
model devised by Greek astronomer Aris- “Goldilocks” region that is nei- Mario Livio worked for
If the multiverse exists, odds are the
Within the Milky Way, roughly 20 per- laws and constants prevailing in any given
system, he did more than cent of sunlike or smaller stars harbor an universe would preclude life’s emergence.
resurrect the “heliocentric” Earth-size world orbiting in a
24 years with the Hubble
tarchus of Samos. He took humanity down ther too hot nor too cold for liq- Space Telescope and is
a peg. The ensuing “Copernican principle” uid water to persist on a rocky a fellow of the American
If so, we inhabit a rare subclass
of universes that allows for life.
In other words, we—humans,
our planet, our universe—may
tells us that we are nothing special. Earth planetary surface. At least a few Association for the be special after all.
is just another ordinary world revolving hundred million planets in our Advancement of Science. Our astronomical search for
Livio is also author
around an ordinary star. galaxy may be habitable. With of seven popular science life beyond the solar system
Scientific revelations in the centuries each advance in our knowl- books, including, most may tell us where the Coperni-
that followed have only underscored our edge, our existence is reduced recently, Galileo and the can principle breaks down. Ex-
mediocrity. In the mid-19th century Charles to mere cosmic flotsam. Science Deniers (Simon & trapolating from what we know
Schuster, 2020).
Darwin realized that rather than being the Increasing numbers of phy- about how stars are born, live
“crown of creation,” humans are simply a sicists have begun to suspect—often and die—and how a subset of them host
natural product of evolution by means of against their most fervent hopes—that our potentially habitable Earth-size planets—
natural selection. Early in the 20th century entire universe may be but one member of one can estimate the relative likelihood of
Harlow Shapley showed that the entire solar a mind-bogglingly huge ensemble of uni- life’s emergence in the universe as a func-
system lives in the Milky Way’s sleepy outer verses: a multiverse. Interestingly, though, tion of time.
suburbs rather than the comparatively bus- if a multiverse truly exists, it suggests a Because low-mass stars are the most
tling galactic center. A few years later Edwin limit to Copernican humility. Many re- numerous and longest-lived, in the future
Hubble demonstrated that even our galaxy searchers speculate that random chance life in the cosmos is much more likely to
is unexceptional—one of many bundles of rather than fundamental laws sets the val- arise on a planet orbiting a low-mass star,
stars, planets, gas and dust. Estimates put ues for some of the three dozen physical such as a red dwarf, rather than on a planet
Ut voluptatem quatis quia lorem sipum delit as eatibus dolore con ent. orbiting a bulkier star akin to our sun. In
Is life common throughout the cosmos? Worlds orbiting red dwarf stars may offer vital clues. other words, life on Earth appears to be
very premature and rather special.
Many factors could inhibit the forma-
tion of the chemical building blocks of life.
For instance, red dwarf stars tend to emit
strong flares and stellar winds that could
strip planets of their atmospheres, thwart-
ing the environmental conditions and
availability of precursors that life-creating
chemistries need to percolate. Current and
near-future astronomical searches for bio-
signatures in the atmospheres of exoplan-
ets, which now focus on worlds around low-
mass red dwarfs, offer valuable clues as to
whether life can exist in such settings.
Each blow to the Copernican principle
and our own perceived physical significance
was a tremendous expansion in our knowl-
edge. The Copernican principle teaches us
humility, yes, but also reminds us to keep our
curiosity and passion for exploration alive.
52
52 SC
SCIIEENNTTIIFFIC
ICAAM
MER
ERIC
ICAANN OC
OCTOBER
TOBER2202
0233 Illustration by Ron Miller
© 2023 Scientific American
THE SCIENCE OF HEALTH
W thing. I enjoy a glass or two, message is clear: the chances of harm be-
though rarely more. I have gin with the first drop.
seen the terrible toll of alcohol This radical shift in thinking made
use disorder and know the headlines. Then my own doctor advised
risks. Or I thought I did. I judged my drink- me to cut back. I was willing, but I wanted
ing “moderate” and relatively benign. to understand what, exactly, I was risking
A decade ago scientists and public with each sip of sauvignon blanc.
cally disappeared. Other studies got similar
results. By 2022 the World Heart Federation
stated that alcohol did not protect people.
Still, the increased risk for light and mod-
erate drinkers must be considered in con-
text. The Canadian guidelines estimate one
additional premature death in 1,000 could
health experts agreed with me. A drink or Previous health advice was designed to be attributed to alcohol for those who have
two a day was safely within most public stop people from becoming alcoholics, two drinks a week. That risk increases to one
health guidelines, and research even sug- says psychologist Tim Stockwell of the in 100 among people who have six drinks
gested that a little alcohol could protect University of Victoria, a former director of weekly. People take similar risks every day.
against cardiovascular disease. the Canadian Institute for Substance Use The lifetime odds of dying in a car accident
But earlier this year the World Health Research, who has helped develop guide- are one in 93, yet we still drive. We eat bacon.
Organization (WHO) stated any amount lines for three countries over 25 years. “It We even go skydiving. “We choose those
of alcohol was dangerous. “There is no safe wasn’t so much how you protect your body things because we want to do them in spite
amount that does not affect from cancer, liver disease, or of the known risks,” Hartz says. “That’s
health,” the group declared. Lydia Denworth is an losing a few months or even where alcohol needs to be lumped.”
Canadian authorities rede- award-winning science years of life expectancy.” The choice is personal. (For people with
fined moderate-risk drinking journalist and contribut- Now a growing body of re- alcohol use disorder, the option is absti-
ing editor for Scientific
as three to six drinks a week, American. She is author search says any alcohol raises the nence.) People have long derived pleasure
down from a daily level of two of Friendship: The Evolu- chance of premature death from from alcohol. I am one of them, although
for women and three for men. tion, Biology, and Extra- a variety of causes. About half my definition of “moderation” has shifted
The U.S. now recommends a ordinary Power of Life’s of cases of liver disease are at- with the guidelines. I recognize that wine is
Fundamental Bond
limit of one drink a day for (W. W. Norton, 2020) tributed to drinking. Alcohol is not benign, and I have cut my consumption
women (that is, 12 ounces of and several other books also a potent carcinogen. It can in half. But the occasional glass is a risk
beer, five ounces of wine or 1.5 of popular science. cause cancer because it breaks worth taking—for me.
Stay Sharp as You Age they can increase both real-world skills and
cognitive abilities over the long term.
If, as these studies indicate, interrupted
Older people show significant cognitive benefits learning is indeed a common feature of
from learning new skills adulthood, many important implications
BY RACHEL WU AND JESSICA A. CHURCH follow. Older adults are often assumed to
be on a downward slope with unrecover-
able loss. “Use it or lose it,” the saying goes.
N MANY ADULTS, learning and think- younger by the program’s end. And amaz- Our work suggests that we need to apply a
I ing plateau and then begin to decline as ingly, they continued to improve long after
early as age 30. People start to perform the classes were over.
slightly worse in tests of cognitive abil- In this intervention, the researchers
ities such as processing speed, the rate provided an encouraging learning environ-
at which someone does a mental task. The ment to 24 older adults between 58 and 86
slide becomes steeper in their mid-60s. years of age. Before and after, they tested
These changes are often ascribed to nor- participants’ cognitive abilities, including
more hopeful mindset and vocabulary
when discussing older people. Decline, as
we so often see it, may not be inevitable.
The question now is: How can society
maximize adults’ chances to keep learning?
Educators and scientists know how to edu-
cate children and adolescents, and we can
mal aging. But they may instead represent cognitive flexibility and working memory. adapt that knowledge to pursue existing op-
something more like the “summer slide” (Whereas cognitive flexibility supports tions and develop challenging, useful and
that some schoolchildren experience in ac- multitasking and attention, working mem- inclusive learning opportunities for adults.
ademic progress during summer break. Af- ory helps people with short-term tasks Researchers who work on the developmen-
ter formal education and job such as dialing a phone num- tal and aging ends of the life span should
training end, many adults un- Rachel Wu is an ber.) The older adults enrolled share perspectives and communicate find-
dergo years of reduced learning associate professor of in at least three classes that met ings with one another. Finally, societies
opportunities. Work by one of psychology at the Uni- weekly, with each session last- could provide resources and paths toward
versity of California,
us (Wu) suggests that the ces- Riverside. She studies ing two hours, to learn three lifelong learning—particularly for older
sation of learning is indeed a cognitive aging and learn- new skills. Course options in- adults who are underserved or disadvan-
setback—but this decline can ing across the life span. cluded drawing, iPad use, pho- taged—to ensure that everyone can benefit.
be addressed. A three-month Jessica A. Church tography, Spanish-language Let’s shift the conversation about adults
intervention Wu and her col- is an associate professor learning and music composi- from staving off loss and decline, or mere-
leagues designed enhanced of psychology at the tion. Once a week the partici- ly maintaining what people have, to learn-
participants’ memory and cog- University of Texas at pants also discussed issues re- ing, growing and thriving.
Austin. She studies
nitive flexibility so drastically cognitive development lated to learning barriers, moti- JOIN THE CONVERSATION ONLINE
that their abilities came to re- and learning in children vation and successful aging. Visit Scientific American on Facebook and Twitter
semble those of adults 30 years and adolescents. Over the course of the inter- or send a letter to the editor: editors @sciam.com
An illustration of
TOI-700 d, the first
Earth-size habitable-
zone planet discovered
by NASA’s Transiting
Exoplanet Survey
Satellite. This world
orbits a star 100
light-years away in the
constellation Dorado.
Phil Plait is a
mistake, scientists are humans, and we want the answer to one professional
As an idea, it’s pretty useful. All life on
of the biggest questions of the scientific age: Are we alone? astronomer and Earth needs liquid water, and because
We may get an answer soon. Our technology is just on the science communicator we’re unaware as yet of any other way life
cusp of detecting exoplanetary biosignatures, telltale signs in Colorado. He writes might occur, that’s a good place to start.
the Bad Astronomy
of life such as molecules in planetary atmospheres that could Newsletter. Follow
Measuring habitable zones, however,
indicate the presence of biology. Until then, though, it’s useful him on Twitter isn’t straightforward. Calculating the ra-
to investigate everything we can about these planets and @BadAstronomer diation a planet receives from its star is
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easy; that depends on well-understood
physics. The hard part is the planet itself. The concept of a habitable zone is
A dark planet absorbs more light and
heats up, whereas a lighter-toned one will
woefully incomplete for the purpose of
reflect more light and be colder. determining where life might exist. So
A planet’s atmosphere plays an even
bigger role: if it’s loaded with greenhouse is it time to kick it to the galactic curb?
gases, then the planet needs to be farther
out from the star to be clement. Just look spacecraft showed huge plumes of water are alien fishies swimming in Titanic
at Venus—our sibling world in many erupting off the surface of Saturn’s icy lakes a billion kilometers from the sun?
ways, similar to Earth in size and mass— moon Enceladus. Probably generated by Needless to say, these are well outside
to see how important that is. Lead would Saturn’s tidal activity, similar to what the sun’s quote-unquote habitable zone,
melt on our evil twin’s surface because of warms Europa, these geysers point to the yet it’s possible that life may abound in-
its overwhelmingly thick atmospheric presence of immense pockets of subsur- side these prima facie frozen moons.
blanket of carbon dioxide. It’s not exactly face liquid water, if not another ocean. Clearly, the concept of a habitable zone is
an Earth-like planet. Now we think there could be many woefully incomplete for the purpose of
So on its own, finding a planet in a such sub-ice oceans inside the moons of determining where life might exist. So is
star’s nominal habitable zone is no guar- the solar system’s outer planets and even it time to kick it to the galactic curb?
antee it will be, well, habitable, even if it’s in some of the larger objects orbiting the Let’s not throw out the extraterrestri-
a small (and presumably) rocky world sun past Neptune. al baby with the subsurface bathwater!
like our own. A lot more must be known, In fact, we know of quite a few rogue Some years ago a team of planetary as-
including whether it even has an atmo- planets meandering through interstellar tronomers wrote that the term needs
sphere, what that atmosphere is com- space, which were probably ejected from modifying and suggested it be replaced
posed of, and more. This problem is so their original planetary systems as the with “temperate zone.” I think this idea is
complicated that astronomers argue over worlds there first formed and gravita- a fine one, still highly useful if we’re look-
where our sun’s habitable zone even tionally interacted with one another. The ing for Earth-like planets, which, to be
starts, and we’re literally inside it. What’s ones we find tend to be gas giants even clear, we are. It might not include frozen
more, the habitable zone might not be the more massive than Jupiter. If they have moons of gas-giant planets or worlds
only place where liquid water can exist in icy moons, those, too, could be heated where life as we don’t know it may evolve,
a solar system. enough to have subsurface oceans. So you but as long as we are aware of these limita-
In the 1970s the Voyager 2 spacecraft might not even need to have a star to have a tions, it’s still handy. Renaming the con-
flew by Jupiter’s moon Europa and saw habitable world! cept could solve some things.
surface features that hinted at the pres- To throw even more cold water on hab- The habitable zone, even by any other
ence of a liquid-water ocean underneath itable zones, there are other liquids to name, was never meant to be an ironclad
its frozen surface. We’ve since collected ponder as well. Saturn’s largest moon Ti- rule. It was always a guideline, an idea to
extremely compelling evidence of sub- tan is too cold to have liquid water on its inform astronomers that they might be
surface Europan liquid water kept warm surface, but Cassini observations in 2006 onto something interesting when a plan-
by the moon’s interaction with Jupiter’s showed vast lakes of liquid methane et is found in a certain spot. It’s not a de-
immense gravity. there. Methane is a carbon-based mole- vice for measuring potentially habitable
Europa isn’t the only ocean moon, ei- cule, so many of the ingredients for life are worlds so much as a way to bookmark
ther. In 2005 images from the Cassini perforce there. Who knows whether there them for future observations.
It’s easy to want to draw lines in the
sand—a planet this far from its star is in-
Our Solar System’s
Habitable Zone
Earth hospitable, but a planet that far is great—
Earth isn’t the only orb but nature almost never behaves that way.
in the sun’s habitable zone It generally works on a spectrum, with
(blue), the circumstellar fuzzy borders and even larger overlaps.
region where sufficient Sun It’s always good to keep that in mind when
starlight can support
liquid water on a world’s
reading about scientific discoveries.
surface. Our lifeless moon A planet being in its star’s habitable
Mars
lies within it as well, zone might not be sufficient, or even nec-
and by some estimates essary, to make it habitable, but it’s still a
freeze-dried Mars does,
pretty good place to start when looking
too, showing the limits
of the concept. for life. We just need to make sure we
don’t stop there.
T in the world are the Academy Award in 1993. It’s time the Naomi Oreskes is a
Award for work in film and the Nobel Assembly did the same of science at Harvard
of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences chemist and crystallographer (Princeton University
grants posthumous awards for people Rosalind Franklin, whose author of The Big Myth
who won in their category but died before research laid the foundation (Bloomsbury, 2023).
professor of the history
Nobel Prize for work in science thing and awarded a post- University. She is author ate the matching strand.
and medicine. The Academy humous Nobel Prize to British of Why Trust Science?
Press, 2019) and co-
information when the helical
strands separate and re-cre-
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METER EDITED BY DAVA SOBEL
from predators. Predators in be used as a narcotic. Histori- use disorder and how grief fu-
turn adapted to those toxins to cally, nutmeg’s supposed medi- eled his research into ethanol’s
gain an advantage in their fight cinal properties (it was con- toxic hold over so many. As we
Most Delicious Poison:
for survival. But at our earliest The Story of Nature’s Toxins— sidered an important ingredient patronize nature’s dangerous
opportunity, humans also From Spices to Vices in the treatment for plague, al- pharmacy, we must “walk on
sought to profit from these sub- by Noah Whiteman. though it didn’t work very well) a knife’s edge between healing
stances: scrapings from a Ne- Little Brown Spark, 2023 ($30) made it such a valuable spice and harm.” —Dana Dunham
IN BRIEF
Eve: How the Female Body Drove Christmas and Other Horrors: Alfie & Me: What Owls Know,
200 Million Years of Human Evolution A Winter Solstice Anthology What Humans Believe
by Cat Bohannon. edited by Ellen Datlow. by Carl Safina.
Knopf, 2023 ($35) Titan, 2023 ($27.99) W. W. Norton, 2023 ($32.50)
Struggling to see how deeply Editor Ellen Datlow collects It won’t take long to feel en-
ingrained patriarchal thinking diabolical tales embracing amored of the newly adopt-
is in science? Look no further winter solstice, the shortest ed member of Carl Safina’s
than studies of animals and day of the year, when cultures family: a baby screech owl.
humans. For decades it was around the world conjure sin- A beloved science writer,
acceptable to exclude female ister stories of vengeful spir- Safina presents accounts
subjects entirely (because its. The burning bones of a of Alfie’s growth, eventual
of their menstrual cycles and the chance of wood demon in a Finnish sauna reveal the release and even motherhood that show
pregnancy). Eve uses this maddening les- emptiness of a future son-in-law. During tender concern for Alfie’s quality of life
son as a jumping-off point to tell an alter- the apocalypse in the cold of Quebec, a beyond mere physical benchmarks. Don’t
native evolutionary history of our species. woman comforts a monster who eats the expect a dramatic, sensational plot; here
We meet extinct matriarchs such as Don- violent and the cruel. Thieves practicing the the quiet message is that nature doesn’t
na, the squirrel-like progenitor of live birth, Welsh folk tradition of Mari Lwyd encoun- need to serve us humans beyond existing
and Ardi, who was the first to walk on two ter two resurrected 19th-century highway- for itself. Safina’s humble sense of wonder
legs. Exploring human anatomy through men. The theme of hubris—of people obliv- and his appreciation for Indigenous prac-
the female body is a refreshing change in ious to impending tragedy and supersti- tices and knowledge combine in a joyful
perspective, and readers will gain a fuller tion—heightens our fascination with folklore celebration of not just Alfie’s adoption but
appreciation for “women’s bodies, from tits spirits that manifest as catalysts for reflec- the interconnectedness between nature
to toes.” —Maddie Bender tion and change. —Lorraine Savage and humans. — Sam Miller
In the past decade researchers dog, man, beach But recently that tactic has
found that feeding a program lots been flipped on its head.
of images with descriptive labels Instead of attaching labels
attached would lead the AI to to images, AI can now create
assign those labels to previously novel images from labels.
unseen pictures. It’s what allows Algorithms with this capability
your phone to find pictures of a dog, man, beachh are what is referred to as
person or a pet from a text search. “generative” models.
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AST YEAR THE Internet got its series and tricked people into believing Pentagon briefly inspired a dip in the
Once trained, the AI can read any given text prompt, start with an image of pure noise, and reduce the noise until it has a new image that matches the written description.
So,
“MAN AND DOG
AT THE BEACH”
becomes:
Though powerful, these The images developers use And because these models But the technology
models aren’t considered to train them include pull from human-made just keeps improving.
truly intelligent. They cannot copyrighted material, raising works scavenged from the Convincing
yet create something they questions around plagiarism Internet, they can reinforce AI-generated text,
haven’t seen before. and intellectual property. existing biases based on video and audio seem
class, race, gender and age. inevitable. In this
Complicated or truly
novel prompts can disinformation age,
give them trouble. AI-generated content
will force us to
What? question what we see
and hear.
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