Surname 1

Student’s Name
Professor’s Name
Course
Date
Business Analytics
Question One
1a) Develop moving Average Model k=3

#N/A
#N/A
159.66666
7
350
343.33333
3
286.66666
7
206.66666
7
410
430
403.33333
3
310
543.33333
3
560
550
400
583.33333
3
586.66666
7
610
533.33333
3
763.33333
3
758.33333
3
765
698.33333
3
963.33333
3
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Moving Average
1500
1000
Actual
Value

500 Forecast
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Data Point

b) Develop an exponential smoothing model

Exponential Smoothing

1500 Actual
Forecast
1000
Value

500

0
Data Point

c) Regression Model for forecasting Sales

Sales= Constant+ Time β1+ Customer Satisfaction β2+ Advertising β3
d) Compare the models

Abst Pct
Forecast Error Absolute Squared Err

159.6666 460.3333 460.3333 211906.7 74.247311

67 33 33 78 8
350 -250 250 62500 250
-
343.3333 203.3333 203.3333 41344.44 145.23809
33 33 33 44 5
286.6666 93.33333 93.33333 8711.111 24.561403
67 33 33 11 5
206.6666 503.3333 503.3333 253344.4 70.892018
67 33 33 44 8
410 -210 210 44100 105
43.333333
430 -130 130 16900 3
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403.3333 26.66666 26.66666 711.1111 6.2015503

33 67 67 11 9
Ac
Fo
tu
r e
0 al
c a
1st

310 590 590 348100 65.5555556

-
543.3333 193.3333 193.3333 37377.77 55.238095
33 33 33 78 2
560 -160 160 25600 40
22.222222
550 -100 100 10000 2
55.555555
400 500 500 250000 6
-
583.3333 173.3333 173.3333 30044.44 42.276422
33 33 33 44 8
-
586.6666 66.66666 66.66666 4444.444 12.820512
67 67 67 44 8
8.9552238
610 60 60 3600 8
533.3333 566.6666 566.6666 321111.1 51.515151
33 67 67 11 5
-
763.3333 258.3333 258.3333 66736.11 51.155115
33 33 33 11 5
-
758.3333 68.33333 68.33333 4669.444 9.9033816
33 33 33 44 4
765 135 135 18225 15
698.3333 601.6666 601.6666 362002.7 46.282051
33 67 67 78 3

1723.666 5350.333
TOTAL 67 33 2121429 1195.953
AVERA 82.07936 254.7777 101020.4 56.950142
GE 51 78 29 9
Bias MAD MSE MAPE

e) Multiple Linear Regression

Regressio
n
Statistics
Multiple R 0.364331
R Square 0.132737
Adjusted 0.05014
 Surname 4

R Square
Standard
Error 318.8178
Observati
ons 24

ANOVA
Significa
df SS MS F nce F
Regressio 326697. 163348 1.6070
n 2 2 .6 53 0.224173
213454 101644
Residual 21 1 .8
246123
Total 23 8

Coefficie Standar P- Lower Upper Lower Upper

nts d Error t Stat value 95% 95% 95.0% 95.0%
- -
960.676 0.8832 0.3871 1149.3 2846.3 1149.3
Intercept -848.488 3 2 17 -2846.32 47 2 47
-
X 10.2269 1.6446 0.1149 38.087 4.4487 38.087
Variable 1 16.8194 6 13 37 -4.44874 53 4 53
-
X 0.07700 0.6138 0.5458 0.1128 - 0.1128
Variable 2 -0.04727 1 9 81 -0.2074 62 0.2074 62

Sales= -848.488+16.8184 C-0.04727A

Question Two
2(a) What profit can be anticipated with a demand of 10,000 phones?

Amount
510000
Sales (10,000*510) 0
Less Variable Cost 463000
(10000*463) 0
Contribution 470000
200000
Less Fixed Cost 0
Net Profit/Loss -
153000
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2(b) Use a Data Table to vary demand from 10,000 to 100,000 in increments of 10,000 to
assess the sensitivity of profit to demand.
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70
1,53,00,00 2,04,00,00 2,55,00,00 3,06,00,00 3,57,00
51,00,000 1,02,00,000
Sales 0 0 0 0 0
Less Variable 1,38,90,00 1,85,20,00 2,31,50,00 2,77,80,00 3,24,10
46,30,000 92,60,000
Cost 0 0 0 0 0
Contribution 4,70,000 9,40,000 14,10,000 18,80,000 23,50,000 28,20,000 32,90,0
Less Fixed Costs 20,00,000 20,00,000 20,00,000 20,00,000 20,00,000 20,00,000 20,00,0
Net Profit/Loss -15,30,000 -10,60,000 -5,90,000 -1,20,000 3,50,000 8,20,000 12,90,0
70,000 80,000 90,000 1,00,000
3,57,00,00 4,08,00,00 4,59,00,00
5,10,00,000
0 0 0
3,24,10,00 3,70,40,00 4,16,70,00
4,63,00,000
0 0 0
32,90,000 37,60,000 42,30,000 47,00,000
20,00,000 20,00,000 20,00,000 20,00,000
12,90,000 17,60,000 22,30,000 27,00,000

2(c) Use Goal Seek to determine the access price per phone that the publisher must charge to
break even with a demand of 40,000 phones.

3©
Demand 40,000
Unit Price 510
Unit Cost 463
Fixed Cost 20,00,000
Sales Revenue 20400000
Variable Cost 18520000
Profit 1880000

Therefore, $463 for

a demand of
40,000 copies will
give a profit of
$1880000

In scenario 1:
The goal seek
function will be;
 Surname 6

Demand 15000
Unit Price 620
Unit Cost 500
Fixed Cost 2,000,000
Sales Revenue 9300000
Variable Cost 7500000
Profit 1800000

A demand of 15000 copies at a unit price of $500 will give a net profit of -$1800000
Question Three

Net Present Value of the

Costs
Discounting
Cost Rate(3%) Amount

Non-hybrid 28,000.00 0.03 20,834.63

Hybrid 31,000.00 0.03 23,066.91

Additional Costs
Non-Hybrid Hybrid
Fuel City Highway City Highway
(20*2.19) (30*2.19) (42*2.19) (40*2.19)

43.80 65.70 91.98 87.60

Assuming 9000
miles 5,400.00 3,600.00 5,400.00 3,600.00

496,692.0 315,360.0
Annual Fuel Costs 236,520.00 236,520.00 0 0

Average Annual 812,052.0

Costs 473,040.00 0

Therefore, there is no cost saving on fuel by adopting the Hybrid version

Question Four
Taking a principle of 100 in each case;
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a) Savings a/c: Value of 100 after 4 years is;

100*109/100*107/100*104/100*112/100=$135.
85
Amount-Principal
135.85-100= 35.85 or 35.85%

b)Bond: Value of 100 after 4 years will be:

100*110.3/100*111.8/100*109.4/100*107.6/100=$145.16
Return
145.16-100=$45.16 0r 45.16%

c) Stock Value of 100 after 4 years

100*106/100*105.3/100*104.1/100*107.9/100=$125.374
Return
125.374-100=$25.374 0r 25.374%

d)Housing: Value of 100 after 4 years will be:

100*112.4/100*113.9/100*111.4/100*109.6/100=$156.31
Return
156.31-100=$56.31 0r 56.31%

e) Crypto: Value of 100 after 4 years will be:

100*103.4/100*105.6/100*107.2/100*111.1/100=$130.045
Return
130.045-100=$30.045 0r 30.045%

Savings
A/c 35.85
Bonds 45.16
Stock 25.374
Housing 56.31
Crypto 30.045
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Given that investment in housing cannot exceed 30%

and Investment in crypto must be atleast 10%
Therefore, Investor must allocate his $50,000 in the following manner to maximize
return

Investme Compound Rate of Proportio Amount(

nt Return n $)
Housing 56.31 30 15000
Crypto 30.045 10 5000
Bonds 45.16 60 30000