0 Seirmodel

Kermack-McKendrick Model
Threshold and Severity of an Epidemic

Exposed Group introduced
Institute oI Mathematics, UP Diliman 1
< Epidemiology is the scientific study of how
diseases occur, how it can be acquired by an
individual, and how it can be controlled and
possibly be eradicated so as not to infect, or even
kill, a large number of the population.
< athematical models are used to represent
epidemiological processes.
< Simulations based on these models are made
to "repeat an occurrence of epidemic in a
laboratory. This also gives scientists an idea
about the asymptotic behavior of the disease.
< Susceptibles (S) people capable of acquiring the
disease
< nfectives () people infected by the disease and
has the ability to transmit to susceptibles
< Removals (R) people who have passed through
the disease and will not be infected again.
SUSCEPTIBLES
(x)
INFECTIVES
(y)
REMOVALS
(z)
< The total population size remains constant for the entire
period of study, i.e., if N is the population size, then
x
n
+ y
n
+ z
n
= N.
< The disease is transmitted directly from infective to
susceptible.
< There is a homogenous mixing of the population.
< A susceptible becomes infective immediately after
transmission.
< A proportion of the infectives remain infective at the end
of the sampling interval. (The Reed-Frost model
assumes that all infectives become removals after the
sampling interval)
< Even if we assume homogeneous mixing of
population, a susceptible may or may not be
infected depending to some factors such as:
virulence of the organism, extent to which they are
discharged, natural resistance of the susceptible,
to name a few.
< There should be at least one infective.
< The whole population is analyzed and classified
into groups at a particular time we term as a
sampling interval
< x
n
: number of susceptibles at the nth sampling
interval
< y
n
: number of infectives at the nth sampling
interval
< z
n
: number of removals at the nth sampling
interval
< onstant contact rate: a = - ln (1 p), where p is
the probability that a susceptible will be infected.
1 p = e
-a
: probability that a susceptible will
not be infected.
< onstant proportion that an infective remains
infective: b
< x
n+1
= exp(-ay
n
)x
n
: number of susceptibles who
avoids contact from all infectives on the (n+1)st
sampling interval.
< y
n+1
= (1- exp(-ay
n
))x
n
+ by
n
: number of
infectives on the (n+1)st sampling interval.
< z
n+1
= (1-b)y
n
+z
n
: number of removals on the
(n+1)st sampling interval.
< The threshold value is the least number of susceptibles
for the disease to propagate.
< Example:
Let y
0
= 1. Since
y
n+1
= (1- exp(-ay
n
))x
n
+ by
n
Then y
1
= (1- exp(-a))x
0
+ b
y
1
1 = (1 e
-a
)x
0
+ b 1 >=0
x
0
>= (1 b)(1 e
-a
)
-1
= x
*
x
*
is the threshold value.
The value can be used to determine a strategy
to deter epidemic. n order that a disease will
not propagate, we must increase x
*
by:
1. ncreasing the numerator (1-b), by improved scrutiny and
treatment of population thus increasing the probability of
being a removal;
2. Decrease the denominator (1-e
-a
), by quarantine reducing
contacts between individuals;
3. Reducethe susceptible population below x
*
,through
immunization and vaccination, making susceptibles
automatically removals, in a sense.
< as t C, x
n
x
C
. What is x
C
?
< Although we can solve this using our existing
model, it is also of interest its continuous model.
< onsider smooth functions S(t), (t), and R(t) and
a very small interval h such that x
n
= S(nh), y
n
=
(nh), and z
n
= R(nh)
< Rescaling a and b
a = rh and b = 1 hv
< Set t = nh
S(t+h) = e
-rh(t)
S(t)
(t+h) = (1 - hv) (t) + (1 - e
-rh(t)
) S(t)
R(t+h) = R(t) + (1 - (1 - hv)) (t)
S(t+h) S(t) = (1 - e
-rh(t))
) S(t) -rh(t) S(t)
(t+h) (t) = - hv (t) + (1 - e
-rh(t)
) S(t)
R(t+h) = R(t) + (1 - (1 - hv)) (t)
ntegrating, with initial conditions S
0
, and
0
at t=0:
< Exposed (E) : susceptibles who are infected by
the disease but are not yet infectious.
< Latent period: the period when a susceptible is
infected by is not yet infectious.
Latent period nfection period
ncubation period
< easles
< umps
< Polio
< Hepatitis B
< nfluenza
< hicken Pox
< ADS
< w
n
: number of exposed in the nth sampling
interval. We assume of course that eventually all
exposed will become infective.
< c : proportion from the exposed who becomes
infective; (1 c) is the proportion that an exposed
remains exposed.
< x
n+1
= exp(-ay
n
)x
n
< w
n+1
= (1- exp(-ay
n
))x
n
+ (1-c)w
n
< y
n+1
= cw
n
+ (1-b)y
n
< z
n+1
= by
n
+ z
n
< f we assume and initial number of infective of 1
then the threshold value is based on the removal
rate, b, and proportion of becoming infective from
exposed, c.
< threshold value, h
*
= (1 b)(1 c)
-1
using the
same process as that in the SR model.
< Recurrent diseases
< Example: sexually transmitted diseases
(gonorrhea, mumps)
< Bargo, .. The Reed-Frost Model. Undergraduate Research. 2002.
< Brown, D. and Rothery, P. Models in Biology: Mathematics, Statistics and
Computing. John Wiley and Sons Ltd. 1993.
< Fowler, A.. Mathematical Models in the Applied Sciences. ambridge
University Press. 1997.
< Hethcote, W. Mathematics of Infectious Diseases. SA Review 42(4), pp.
599-653. www.math.rutgers.edu/~leenheer/hethcote.pdf
< Hoppensteadt, F.. and Peskins, .S. Theory of Epidemics: Mathematics in
Medicine and the Life Science. Springer-Verlag. 1992. pp. 67-81.
< Santos, . The SEIR Model. Undergraduate Research. 2002.
< Allen, L. and artin, . The Black Death, AIDS, and Mathematics: What's
the connection?.
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Kermack-McKendrick Model

Threshold and Severity of an Epidemic

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