Section 3.

6
Conditional Probability
Extra examples
Example
Text books are available in two forms – electronic and hard
copy. Forty-two (42) percent of students like to study using electronic
text books, 65% of students like to use hard copies of text books and
33% like to use electronic text books and hard copies of text books.

What is the probability that a student likes electronic copies if it is

known that the student likes hard copies?

Define events: Identify info: 𝑃 𝐸 = 0.42

𝑬: 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑐 𝑐𝑜𝑝𝑦 𝑃 𝐻 = 0.65
𝑯: ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑐𝑜𝑝𝑦
𝑃 𝐸 ∩ 𝐻 = 0.33
 𝑬: 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑐 𝑐𝑜𝑝𝑦
𝑯: ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑐𝑜𝑝𝑦
What is the probability that a student likes 𝑃 𝐸 = 0.42
electronic copies if it is known that the student
𝑃 𝐻 = 0.65
likes hard copies?
𝑃 𝐸 ∩ 𝐻 = 0.33

𝑃 𝐸∩𝐻 0.33
𝑃 𝐸|𝐻 = = = 0.5077
𝑃 𝐻 0.65
Example A sample of 600 people was taken and their gender
and incomes (𝑋) recorded. The information is given in
the table below.

ഥ
𝑴 𝑴

𝑨
𝑩
𝑪
Suppose a woman is chosen. What is the probability that she earns
at least R60 000?
ഥ
𝑴 𝑴

𝑨 95
𝑩 265
𝑪 240
380 220 600

160ൗ
ഥ
𝑃 𝐶 ∩ 𝑀 600 160
ഥ
𝑃 𝐶|𝑀 = = =
ഥ
𝑃 𝑀 380ൗ 380
600
Alternative Method Suppose a woman is chosen. What is the
probability that she earns at least R60 000?

ഥ
𝑃 𝐶|𝑀
ഥ
𝑴 𝑴
160
𝑨 Not95working =
with all 600 380
𝑩 Ignore the
265 The
people.
men
new sample
𝑪 240
size is 380.

380 220 600

If a person is randomly selected and you are told that they earn less than
R60 000, what is the probability that the person is a male?
ഥ
𝑴 𝑴

𝑨 95
𝑩 265
𝑪 240
𝑃 𝑀|𝐴∪𝐵 380 220 600
20 + 120
𝑃 𝑴 ∩ 𝑨∪𝑩 600
140
= = =
𝑃 𝑨∪𝑩 95 + 295 360
600
Alternative Method If a person is randomly selected and you are
told that they earn less than R60 000, what is
the probability that the person is a male?

140
𝑃 𝑀|𝐴∪𝐵 =
360 ഥ
𝑴 𝑴

𝑨 95
𝑩 265
𝑪 Ignore people earning at least R60 000. 240
No380
longer working
220 with all 600600
people.
Example
Eighty-two (82) percent of the time Mrs Mkhize’s young
son pushes the shopping trolley when they go shopping. Unfortunately,
when he pushes the trolley he bumps the shelves 14% of the time. Mrs
Mkhize is taking her son shopping today. What is the probability that he
pushes the trolley and bumps into shelves?

Define events: Identify info:

𝑻: 𝑠𝑜𝑛 𝑝𝑢𝑠ℎ𝑒𝑠 𝑡𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑦 𝑃 𝑇 = 0.82
𝑩: 𝑏𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑠 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑜 𝑠ℎ𝑒𝑙𝑣𝑒𝑠 𝑃 𝐵 | 𝑇 = 0.14
 𝑻: 𝑠𝑜𝑛 𝑝𝑢𝑠ℎ𝑒𝑠 𝑡𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑦
What is the probability that he pushes
the trolley and bumps into shelves? 𝑩: 𝑏𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑠 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑜 𝑠ℎ𝑒𝑙𝑣𝑒𝑠

𝑃 𝑇 = 0.82

𝑃 𝐵 | 𝑇 = 0.14
𝑃 𝑇∩𝐵

= 𝑃 𝑇 . 𝑃 𝐵|𝑇

= 0.82 0.14

= 0.1148
Example 𝑃 𝑇2 | 𝑇1 = 0.75 𝑃 𝑇1 = 0.7

Kesh enters a game in which he has 3 balls to throw at a target. The

probability that he hits the target on his 1st throw is 0.7. If he hits the
target on the 1st throw, there is a 75% chance that he will hit the target
on his second throw. If Kesh the target on the first two throws, there is a
85% chance that he will hit the target on his 3rd throw. What is the
probability that Kesh hits targets on all three attempts?
𝑇1 : Hits target on throw 1
𝑃 𝑇3 | 𝑇1 ∩ 𝑇2 = 0.85
Events: 𝑇2 : Hits target on throw 2
𝑇3 : Hits target on throw 3
 𝑃 𝑇1 = 0.7
What is the probability that Kesh hits
𝑃 𝑇2 | 𝑇1 = 0.75
targets on all three attempts?
𝑃 𝑇3 | 𝑇1 ∩ 𝑇2 = 0.85

𝑃 𝑇1 ∩ 𝑇2 ∩ 𝑇3

= 𝑃 𝑇1 . 𝑃 𝑇2 | 𝑇1 . 𝑃 𝑇3 | 𝑇1 ∩ 𝑇2

= 0.7 0.75 0.85

= 0.44625
Example You roll a fair die 3 times. What is the probability that you get a
1 on the first roll, a 3 on the second roll and an odd number on the
third roll?

Events: 𝑃 𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐴3

𝐴1 : Get a 1 on the 1st roll = 𝑃 𝐴1 . 𝑃 𝐴2 | 𝐴1 . 𝑃 𝐴3 | 𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2

𝐴2 : Get a 3 on the 2nd roll = 𝑃 𝐴1 . 𝑃 𝐴2 . 𝑃 𝐴3

𝐴3 : Get an odd number on
1 1 3
the 3rd roll =
6 6 6
At a large manufacturing company, 15% of the employees are office staff
and the rest work on the production lines. Of the office staff, 13% lie
about the number of hours that they work. Of the production line
workers, 24% lie about the number of hours that they work. If an
employee is randomly selected and is found to be lying about the hours
he/she works, what is the probability that he/she is an office worker?

𝑃 𝑂 = 0.15
𝐿 : Lies about hours worked
Events 𝑃 𝐿 | 𝑂 = 0.13
𝑂 : Is an office worker
𝑃 𝐿 | 𝑂ത = 0.24
 If an employee is randomly selected and is found to be lying about the
hours he/she works, what is the probability that he/she is an office worker?

Find: 𝑃 𝑂 | 𝐿 𝑃 𝑂∩𝐿
=
𝑃 𝐿

Numerator:
𝑃 𝑂 = 0.15
=𝑃 𝑂 𝑃 𝐿|𝑂
𝑃 𝐿 | 𝑂 = 0.13
= 0.15 0.13
𝑃 𝐿 | 𝑂ത = 0.24
= 0.0195
Denominator:
𝑃 𝑂 = 0.15
= 𝑃 𝑂 𝑃 𝐿|𝑂 + 𝑃 𝑂ത 𝑃 𝐿|𝑂ത
𝑃 𝐿 | 𝑂 = 0.13
= 0.15 0.13 + 0.85 0.24
𝑃 𝐿 | 𝑂ത = 0.24
= 0.2235

0.0195 0.0195
Find: 𝑃 𝑂 | 𝐿 = = = 0.0872
𝑃 𝐿 0.2235
Bob can go to work by one of 3 modes of transport. He goes by car 50%
of the time, by bus 30% of the time and by train 20% of the time. If he
goes by car there is a 40% chance he will be late. If he goes by bus
there is a 25% chance that he will be late. The train is more expensive
than the other modes of transport but is late only 2% of the time.

If Bob is late today, what is the probability that he came by bus?

𝑪: car
𝑳: Gets to work late
2 events 𝑩: bus
Mode of transport
𝑻: train
 𝑃 𝐶 = 0.5 𝑃 𝐵 = 0.3 𝑃 𝑇 = 0.2

Bob can go to work by one of 3 modes of transport. He goes by

car 50% of the time, by bus 30% of the time and by train 20% of
the time. If he goes by car there is a 40% chance he will be late. If
he goes by bus there is a 25% chance that he will be late. The
train is more expensive than the other modes of transport but is
late only 2% of the time.

𝑃 𝐿 | 𝐵 = 0.25 𝑃 𝐿 | 𝐶 = 0.4
𝑃 𝐿 | 𝑇 = 0.02
 If Bob is late today, what is the 𝑃 𝐶 = 0.5 𝑃 𝐿 | 𝐶 = 0.4
probability that he came by bus? 𝑃 𝐵 = 0.3 𝑃 𝐿 | 𝐵 = 0.25
𝑃 𝑇 = 0.2 𝑃 𝐿 | 𝑇 = 0.02
𝑃 𝐵|𝐿

𝑃 𝐵∩𝐿 Multiplication rule

=
𝑃 𝐿

𝑃 𝐵 𝑃 𝐿|𝐵 0.3 0.25 0.075

= = =
𝑃 𝐿 𝑃 𝐿 𝑃 𝐿
 𝑪 𝑩 𝑻 𝑃 𝐶 = 0.5 𝑃 𝐿 | 𝐶 = 0.4
𝑃 𝐵 = 0.3 𝑃 𝐿 | 𝐵 = 0.25
𝑃 𝑇 = 0.2 𝑃 𝐿 | 𝑇 = 0.02

𝑃 𝐿 = 0.279
𝑃 𝐿∩𝐶 + 𝑃 𝐿∩𝐵 + 𝑃 𝐿∩𝑇

=𝑃 𝐶 𝑃 𝐿|𝐶 +𝑃 𝐵 𝑃 𝐿|𝐵 +𝑃 𝑇 𝑃 𝐿|𝑇

= 0.5 0.4 + 0.3 0.25 + 0.2 0.02

If Bob is late today, what is the probability that he came by bus?

0.075
𝑃 𝐵|𝐿 =
𝑃 𝐿

0.075
=
0.279

= 0.269