Population Responses to Environmental Changes
1st Semester - Module 3C
I. KEEPING UP WITH CLIMATE CHANGE
A. Impact of High Levels of Climate Warming to Species Range
Shifts
1. Species:
 changed the timing of their life cycles during the year
 shifted their geographic distributions toward higher latitudes
and elevations
 Moved away from the equator
 May lag behind climate change if they are habitat specialists
or immobile species
 are also affected to different extents by nonclimatic factors
and by multispecies interactions, which themselves depend on
a diversity of environmental drivers
 may also show individualistic physiological responses to
different aspects of the climate, such as different sensitivities
to maximum and minimum temperatures at critical times of
their life cycles.
2. Real and apparent elevation lags may arise if:
 New conditions occur in locations that cannot be reached
easily (eg, mountain peaks)
3. Three processes that are likely to generate the high diversity of
range shifts among species:
 time delays in species’ responses
 Individualistic physiological constraints
 alternative and interacting drivers of change
4. Note:
 Individual species vary greatly in their rates of change,
suggesting that the range shift of each species depends on
multiple internal species traits and external drivers of change.
 mean latitudinal shifts are not consistently lagging behind the
climate
Taxonomic differences are not consistent predictors of recent

response rates
 Much greater variation is associated with differences among
species within a taxonomic group than between taxonomic
groups
B. Climate Change and Species Migration
1. Objective: Find out how phenological mismatch between
migratory herbivores and their forward species may alter resource
availability and plant rates
2. Findings:
 Warmer temperatures and shorter winters are causing
earlier snowmelt and advanced spring growing conditions.
 Phenological mismatch occurs when two species typically a
producer and consumer become separated in the timing of
their activities.
 Mismatch in timing between geese and their forage
resources had a greater impact on vegetation than a similar
shift in the timing of the growing season.
 Delayed grazing and an earlier growing season had similar
effects and generally resulted in greater biomass and
increase in fluorescence production.
 Early migratory arrival and grazing negatively impacted
plant resources with reductions in above- ground biomass
stem heights tillers and root biomass.
 Consistent directional changes in mismatch may be
needed to produce measurable effects on vegetation.
 Climate driven changes in the timing of goose arrival may
have greater consequences for coastal forage resources
than a similar shift in the timing of local spring conditions.
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II. SPECIES EXTINCTION DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
A. Responses to Climate Change + Drivers of Species Extinction
and Survival
 Specific changes in climate that are associated with the
widespread local extinctions that have already occurred.
 Locations with local extinctions had larger and faster changes in
hottest yearly temperatures than those without sites with local
extinctions had significantly smaller changes in mean annual
temperatures.
 Niche shifts appear to be far more important for avoiding
extinction than dispersal.
 The absolute increases in hottest temperatures during the year
are most strongly associated with local extinction, more so than
changes in precipitation or in other temperature-related
variables.
 Niche shifts have allowed many populations to survive dramatic
changes in temperatures.
 Dispersal alone may be insufficient to save most species
considered here.

B. Ecosystem at Risk from Climate Change

 As you increase the temperature we see an increase in those
extinction risk and so there's quite a substantial risk if we
continue on our current course.
 When you alter the entire earth temperature there are a lot of
effects

III. CHANGE IN PHENOLOGY (Clearest demonstration

of the shifting climate)
A. Predicting Phenological Shifts in a Changing Climate
 Peak abundance occurs earlier in the year when warming
increases the mean environmental temperature, but is delayed
when warming increases the amplitude of seasonal fluctuations.
 Warming does not necessarily lead to a longer activity period in
high-latitude species because it elevates summer temperatures
above the upper limit for reproduction and development.
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  An increase in the mean temperature is more detrimental to low-latitude species adapted to high mean temperatures and low-amplitude seasonal
fluctuations.
 An increase in seasonal fluctuations is more detrimental to high-latitude species adapted to low mean temperatures and high-amplitude
fluctuations.

B. Spatiotemporal Variation in Avian Migration Phenology

 Species that advanced arrival dates the earliest in response to warming were those that migrate more slowly, short distance migrants, and
species with broader climatic niches.
 Species must be more phenologically sensitive in less seasonal environments to maintain the same degree of precision in phenological timing.

C. Measuring Plant Phenology from Ground to Space

1. Plant Phenology
 capture the timing of when plants grow buds, leaf out, flower, fruit and die back
 study of the timing of life-cycle events (phenophases) often triggered by seasonal changes in rainfall, temperature and day length

2. Importance:
 we can track changes in timing of specific phenophases for a plant each year

3. Tools:
a. Individual plants - Naked eye + notepad
b. Across state, country, globe - Phenocams
 placed in fixed locations
 programmed to take pictures of specific areas every day
 spares us humans from having to man the tree house day and night
 allows us to estimate phenophase events across huge areas, including entire sections of forests and grasslands
 we can compare the dates of plants turning green in the spring and dying back and losing their leaves in the fall

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