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AMA1110 101 Note9
AMA1110 101 Note9
Probability
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Example: All 420 employees of a company
Marginal Probability were asked if they are smokers or nonsmokers
and whether or not they are university graduates.
University Not a University
graduate graduate Total
Definition: Marginal (or simple) probability is the Smoker 35 80 115
probability of a single event without consideration of Nonsmoker 130 175 305
any other event. Total 165 255 420
If one employee is selected at random from this
company, find the probability that this employee is
(a) a university graduate; (b) a nonsmoker; (c) a
university graduate and smoker; and (d) a university
graduate or a nonsmoker.
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Theorem: If A and B are two events with P (A) ”= 0
and P (B) ”= 0, then Example: A box contains 100 DVDs manufactured on
2 machines:
P (A fl B)
P (A|B) = . Defective Good Total
P (B)
Machine A 9 51 60
Machine B 6 34 40
Total 15 85 100
P (A|B) ”= P (B|A)
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Theorem: The probability that both of the two events
A and B occur is
Example: Suppose that a box contains 8 red balls and
P (A fl B) = P (A)P (B|A) = P (B)P (A|B) . 4 white balls. We draw 2 balls from the box without
replacement. If we assume that at each draw each
ball in the box is equally likely to be chosen, what is
Theorem: If two events A and B are independent,
the probability that both drawn balls are red?
then
P (A fl B) = P (A) P (B).
P (B|A) = P (B)
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Example: In a college, the number of junior students
is five times of the number of senior students. The
Theorem (Law of total probability): Assume that B1 ,
probability that a senior student will be taking com-
B2 , . . ., Bn is a collection of events with
puter science is 0.20 and the probability that a junior
(a) P (Bi ) > 0 for all i; student will be taking computer science is 0.30. If
u a student is selected randomly, find the probability
(b) P (Bi Bj ) = 0 whenever i ”= j; that: (a) he/she is a senior computer science student?
t t t (b) he/she is a computer science major student? (c)
(c) B1 B2 ··· Bn = S
he/she is a junior given that he/she is a computer
Then for any event A, science student?
P (A) = P (B1 ) P (A|B1 ) + P (B2 ) P (A|B2 ) Solution: Let A = the selected student is a senior
+ · · · + P (Bn ) P (A|Bn ) . B = the selected student is a junior
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P (B fl C)
P (B|C) =
P (C)
P (B) P (C|B)
=
P (C)
5
6 ◊ 0.30 15
= 1 5 = .
6 ◊ 0.20 + 6 ◊ 0.30 17
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Example: Calculate P (B|T ) and P (B|T ) given that
Solution:
P (B)P (T |B)
P (B|T ) =
P (B)P (T |B) + P (B)P (T |B)
0.02 ú 0.99
=
0.02 ú 0.99 + 0.98 ú 0.05
= 0.2878;
P (B)P (T |B)
P (B|T ) =
P (B)P (T |B) + P (B)P (T |B)
0.02 ú 0.01
=
0.02 ú 0.01 + 0.98 ú 0.95
= 0.00021.
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