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Analyze Phase
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233
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Analyze Phase
Welcome to Analyze
Now that we have completed the Measure Phase we are going to jump into the Analyze Phase.
Welcome to Analyze will give you a brief look at the topics we are going to cover
cover.
Certified Lean Six Sigma Black Belt Book Copyright OpenSourceSixSigma.com

234
Welcome to Analyze
Overview
These are the

deliverables for the W
W elcom
elcomee to
to Ana
Analy
lyze
ze
Analyze Phase.
““X
X”” Sifting
Sifting
Inferentia
Inferentiall Sta
Statistics
tistics
Intro
Intro to
to Hypothesis
Hypothesis Testing
Testing
Hypothesis
Hypothesis Testing
Testing N
NDD P1
P1
Hypothesis
Hypothesis Testing
Testing N
NDD P2
P2
H
Hypothesis
H th
th ii Testing
Hypothesis TTesting
T ti
ti N
NNND
D P1
P1
Hypothesis
Hypothesis Testing
Testing N
NNND
D P2
P2
W
W ra
rapp Up
Up &
& Action
Action Items
Items
Analyze Phase Roadmap

Process Owner
Champion/
Identify Problem Area
Determine Appropriate Project Focus

Define
Estimate COPQ
Establish Team
Measure
Assess Stability, Capability, and Measurement Systems
Identify and Prioritize All X’s

Analyze
Prove/ Disprove Impact X’s Have On Problem

Improve
Identify, Prioritize, Select Solutions Control or Eliminate X’s Causing Problems
Implement Solutions to Control or Eliminate X’s Causing Problems

ol
Contro
I l
Implement
t Control
C t l Plan
Pl tto Ensure
E Problem
P bl D
Doesn’t
’t Return
Rt
Verify Financial Impact

235
Understanding Six Sigma
Analyze Phase Process Map
Vital Few X’s Identified
State Practical Theories of Vital Few x’s Impact on Problem
Translate Practical Theories into Scientific Hypothesis
Select Analysis Tools to Prove/ Disprove Hypothesis
Collect Data
Perform Statistical Tests
State Practical Conclusion
Statistically
Significant?
N
Y
Update FMEA
N
Practically
Significant?
Root
Cause
N
Y
Identify Root Cause
Ready for Improve and Control
This provides a process look at putting “Analyze” to work. By the time we complete this phase you will
have a thorough understanding of the various Analyze Phase concepts.
We will build upon the foundational work of the Define and Measure Phases by introducing
techniques to find root causes, then using experimentation and Lean Principles to find solutions to
process problems. Next you will learn techniques for sustaining and maintaining process performance
using control tools and finally placing your process knowledge into a high level Process Management
tool for controlling and monitoring process performance.

236
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Analyze Phase
“X” Sifting
Now we will continue in the Analyze Phase with “X Sifting” – determining what the impact of the
inputs to our process are.

237
“X” Sifting
Overview
The core
fundamentals of this W
W elcom
elcomee to
to Ana
Analy
lyze
ze
M
Multi-Va
ulti-Vari
ri Ana
Analysis
lysis
phase are Multi-Vari
Analysis and ““X
X”” Sifting
Sifting
Classes and Cla
Classes
sses aand
nd Ca
Causes
uses
Causes. Inferentia
Inferentiall Sta
Statistics
tistics
We will examine the Intro

Intro to
to Hy
Hypothesis
pothesis Testing
Testing
meaningg of each of
these and show you Hy
Hypothesis
pothesis Testing
Testing N
NDD P1
P1
how to apply them.
Hy pothesis Testing
Hypothesis Testing N
NDD P2
P2
Hy
Hypothesis
pothesis Testing
Testing N
NNND
D P1
P1
Hy
Hypothesis
pothesis Testing
Testing N
NNND
D P2
P2
W
W ra
rapp Up
Up &
& Action
Action Item
Itemss
Multi-Vari Studies
In the Define Phase we used Process Mapping to identify all the

possible “ X’s” on the horizon. In the Measure Phase we used the X-Y
Diagram, FMEA and Process Map to narrow our investigation down
to the probable “ X’s” .
The XXXXXXXXXX
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when
when wewe first
first start
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The
Thequantity
quantityofofX’s
Xs
XX XX XX X
keep
after reducing
we think as
you
about
workY=f(X)
the project
+e
The
Thequantity
quantityofofX’s
Xs
remaining
when we apply
after
XXX
leverage
DMAIC
(The vital
few)
In the Define Phase you use tools like Process Mapping to identify all possible “X’s”
X s . In the Measure
Phase you use tools to help refine all possible “X’s” like the X-Y Diagram and FMEA.
In the Analyze Phase we start to “dis-assemble” the data to determine what it tells us. This is the fun
part.

238
“X” Sifting
Multi-Vari Definition
Vari Studies – is a tool that graphically displays patterns of variation

Multi-Vari
Multi variation. Multi-Vari
Multi Vari Studies are
used to identify possible X’s or families of variation. These families of variation can hide within a
subgroup, between subgroups, or over time.
The Multi-Vari Chart helps in screening factors by using graphical techniques to logically subgroup
discrete X’s (Independent Variables) plotted against a continuous Y (Dependent). By looking at the
pattern of the graphed points, conclusions are drawn from about the largest family of variation.
Multi-Vari Chart can also be used to assess capability

capability, stability and graphical relationships between
X’s and Y’s.
The use of a Multi-Vari Chart is to illustrate analysis of variance data graphically.
A picture can be worth a thousand words, or numbers.

- Multi-Vari Charts are useful in visualizing two-way interactions.
Multi-Vari Charts reveal information such as:

- Effect of work shift on Y’s.
- Impact of specific machinery, or material on Y’s.
- Effect of noise factors on Y’s, etc.
At this point in DMAIC, Multi-Vari Charts are intended to be used as a passive study, but later in the
process they can be used as a graphical representation where factors were intentionally changed. The
only caveat with using MINITABTM to graph the data is that the data must be balanced. Each source of
variation
i ti mustt have
h th
the same numberb off d
data
t points
i t across titime.

239
“X” Sifting
Multi-Vari Example
To put Multi-Vari studies in practice follow an example of an injection molding process.
You are probably asking yourself what is Injection Molding? Well basically an injection molding
machine takes hard plastic pellets and melts them into a fluid. This fluid is then injected into a
mold or die, under pressure, to create products, such as piping and computer cases.
Method
Typically, we start Sa mpling pla ns should encom pa ss a ll three types of
with a data collection
va ria tion: W ithin,, Betw een a nd Tem pora
p l.
sheet
h t th
thatt makes
k
sense based on our
1). Create Sampling Plan
knowledge of the
process. Then follow 2). Gather Passive Date
the steps. 3). Graph Data
If we only see minor 4). Check to see if Variation is Exposed
variation in the
5) Interpret Results
5).
sample, it is time to go
back and collect No
additional data. When Is
Yes
Crea
Create
te Ga
Gather
ther Is
your data collection Pa
Gra
Graph
ph Va
Varia
riation
tion Interpret
Interpret
Sa
Sammpling
pling Passive
ssive Da Results
represents at least Da Data
ta Ex
Exposed
posed Results
Pla
Plann Datata
80% of the variation
within the
process then you should have enough information to evaluate the graph.
graph
Remember for a Multi-Vari Analysis to work the output must be continuous and the sources of
variation discrete.

240
“X” Sifting
Sources of Variation
Within unit, between
unit and temporal are W ithin unit or Positiona l
the classic causes of – W ithin piece variation related to the geometry of the part.
variation. A unit can – Variation across a single unit containing many individual parts
be a single piece or
such as a wafer containing many computer processors.
a grouping of pieces
– Location in a batch process such as plating.
depending on
whether they were
Between unit or Cyclica l
created
t d att unique
i
times. – Variation among consecutive pieces.
– Variation among groups of pieces.
Multi-Vari Analysis – Variation among consecutive batches.
can be performed on
other processes, Tempora l or Over time Shift-to-Shift
simply identify the
g
categorical sources – Day-to-Day
of variation you are – W eek-to-W eek
interested in.
Machine Layout & Variables

In this example there are 4 widgets created with each die cycle. Therefore, a unit is 4 widgets that
were created at that unique time.
M a ster Injection
Pressure
% O x ygen
Dista nce to ta nk
Injection Pressure
Per Ca vity
Fluid Level
#1
#2
Am bient
Die
#3 Temp
Tem p
#4
Die
Relea se
An example of Within Unit Variation is measured by differences in the 4 widgets from a single
die cycle. For example, we could measure the wall thickness for each of the 4 widgets.
Between Unit Variation is measured by differences from sequential die cycles. An example of
Between Unit Variation is, comparing the average of wall thickness from die cycle to die cycle.
Temporal Variation is measured over some meaningful time period. For example, we would
compare the average of all the data collected in a time period say the 8 o’clock hour to the 10
o’clock hour.
241
“X” Sifting
Sampling Plan
To continue with this Monday W ednesday Friday
example, the Multi-Vari Die Die Die Die Die Die Die Die Die
Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle
sampling plan will be to #1 #2 #3 #1 #2 #3 #1 #2 #3
gather data for 3 die cycles
Cavity #1
on 3 different days for 4
widgets inside the mold.
Cavity #2
If you find this initial

Cavity #3
sampling
p gp plan does not
show the variation of
Cavity #4
interest, it will be necessary
to continue sampling, or
make changes to the
sampling plan. Monday W ednesday Friday
Die Die Die Die Die Die Die Die Die
Within-Unit Encoding Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle
#1 #2 #3 #1 #2 #3 #1 #2 #3
Comparing individual data
Cavity #1
points within a die cycle is
Within Unit Variation.
Cavity #2
Examples of measurement
could be wall thickness, Cavity #3
diameter or uniformity of
thickness to name a few Cavity #4
Monday W ednesday Friday

Between-Unit Encoding Die Die Die Die Die Die Die Die Die
#1 #2 #3 #1 #2 #3 #1 #2 #3
Comparing the averages
from each die cycle is Cavity #1
called Between Unit
Variation. Cavity #2
Cavity #3
Cavity #4
Monday W ednesday Friday

Temporal Encoding Die Die Die Die Die Die Die Die Die
#1 #2 #3 #1 #2 #3 #1 #2 #3
Comparing the average
of all the data within a Cavity #1
day and plot 3 time

Cavity #2
periods is known as
Temporal Variation
Variation.
Cavity #3
Cavity #4

242
“X” Sifting
Using Multi-Vari to Narrow X’s
Gather the list of potential X’s and assign to one of the families of
variation.
– This information can be pulled from the X-Y Diagram from the
Measure Phase.
If an X spans one or more families, assign %’s to the supposed split.
Now let’s
let s use the same information from the X-Y
X Y Diagram that was created in the Measure Phase Phase. The
following exercise will help you assign one of the variables to the family of variation. f you find yourself
with a variable or (X) then assign percentages to split. Use your best judgment for the splits. Don’t
assume that the true X’s causing variation have to come from one in the list.
Step 1 - Graph the data from the process in Multi-Vari form.
Step 2 - Identify the largest family of variation.
Step 3 - Establish statistical significance through the appropriate

statistical testing.
Step 4 - Focus further effort on the X’s associated with the family of
largest variation.
Remember
R b ththe goa l isi nott to
t onlyl
figure out w ha t it is, but w ha t it is not!

243
“X” Sifting
Data Worksheet
Now create the Multi-Vari
Chart in MINITABTM.
Open the MINITABTM

Project “Analyze Data
Sets.mpj” and select the
worksheet
“MVInjectionMold.mtw”.
Take a few minutes to look
through the worksheet to
see the balanced structure.
Create the Multi-Vari Chart
in MINITABTM .
After you create the graph

as indicated, take a few
minutes
i t to t create
t graphsh
using a different order.
Always use the graph that
shows the variation in the
easiest manner to interpret.
Run Multi-Vari
Here is the graph that should have been generated.

244
“X” Sifting
Identify The Largest Family of Variation
To find an example of
within unit variation, look
at Unit 1 in the second
time period. Notice the
spread of data is 0.07.
Now let’s try and find

between unit variation
variation,
compare the averages of
the units within a time
period. All three time
periods appear similar so
looking at the first time
period it appears the
spread of the data is
0.18 units.
To determine temporal
variation, compare the
averages between time periods. It appears time period 3 and 2 have a difference of 0.06.
To determine within unit variation, find the unit with the greatest variation like Unit 1 in the second
time p
period. Notice the spread
p of data is 0.07. It appears
pp the second unit in the third.
Notice that the shifting from unit to unit is not consistent, but it certainly jumps up and down. The
question at this point should be: Does this graph represent the problem I’m working on? Do I see at
least 80% of the variation? Read the units off the Y axis or look in the worksheet. Notice the spread
of the data is 0.22 units. If the usual spread of the data is 0.25 units, then this data set represents
88% of the usual variation which tells us our sampling plan was sufficient to detect the problem.
Root Cause Analysis

y
Focus further effort on the
X’s associated with the
family of greatest variation.
After the analysis we now

know the largest source of
variation is occurring die
cycle to die cycle we can
focus our effort on those
X’s that we suspect have
the greatest impact. In this
case, the pattern of Die Cycle to Die Cycle –
variation is not consistent Something is Cha nging!
within the small scope of
d t we gave gathered.
data th d
Additional data may be
required, or this process
may be ready for
experimentation.
245
“X” Sifting
Call Center Example
Let’s try another example, A company with two call centers wants to compare two methods of
open the MINITABTM handling calls at each location at different times of the day.
worksheet “CallCenter.mtw”.
This example is a One method involves a team to resolve customer issues, and the other
transactional application of method requires a single subject-matter expert to handle the call
alone.
the tool.
In this p
particular case,, a • Output (Y)
company with two call – Call Time
centers wants to compare
two methods of handling • Input (X)
calls at each location at – Call Center (GA,N V)
different times of the day. – Time of Day (10:00, 13:00, 17:00)
One method involves a team – Method (Expert, Team)
to resolve customer issues,
and the other method
requires a single subject-
matter expert to handle the
call alone.
Method What is the largest

source of variation…
Method?
Location?
Time?
Location Is the largest

source of variation
more or less
obvious?
Notice the Multi-

Vari graph plotted
is dependent on the
order in which the
variable column
names are entered
into MINITABTM.

246
“X” Sifting
Call Center Example
To display individual data

points click the “Options”
button. This helps to see
the quantity of data and
to identify unusually long
or short calls.
It is not necessaryy to
force fit any one tool to
your project. For
transactional projects
Multi-Vari may be difficult
to interpret purely
graphically. We will re-
visit this data set later
when working through
Hypothesis Testing.
M lti V i Exercise
Multi-Vari E i
Ex ercise objective: To practice Six Sigma techniques learned

to date in your teams.
1 Open files named MVA Cell Media

1. Media.MTW
MTW and
MVA Cell Media.XLS
2. Perform Capability Analysis, use the column labeled volume.
There is only a lower specification limit of
500 ml. ?
– Are the data normal? _______
– Is
I the
th process capable?
bl ? _______
3. W hat is the issue that needs work in terms of Six Sigma
terminology?
– Shift Mean? _______
– Reduce variation? _______
– Combination of mean and variation? _______
– Change specifications? _______

247
“X” Sifting
MVA Solution
Do you recall the reason
why Normality is an Check for norm a lity …
issue? Normality is
required if you intend to
use the information as a
predictive tool. Early in
the Six Sigma process
there is no reason to
assume that
th t your data
d t Probability
ProbabilityPlot
Plotof
ofVolume
Volume
Normal
Normal
will be Normal. 99.9
99.9
Mean
Mean 514.7
514.7
StDev 6.854
Remember, if it is not 99 StDev 6.854

99 NN 144
144
AADD 0.495
0.495
95
Normal it usually makes 95
90
90
80
P-Value
P-Value 0.212
0.212
finding potential causes

80
70
Percent
70
Percent
60
60
50
50
easier. Let’s work the 40
40
30
30
20
20
problem now. Is that 10
10
5
5
First check the data for normal? l 1

1
0.1
0.1
490 500 510 520 530 540
Normality. Since the P- 490 500 510
Volume
Volume
520 530 540
value is greater than

0.05, the data are
considered Normal.
COPQ and Lean
Having a graphical
summary is quite Another method to check norm a lity is…
nice since it
provides a picture
of the data as well
as the summary
statistics The
statistics.
Summary
Summaryfor
forVolume
graphical summary Volume
AAnderson-Darling
nderson-D arlingNNormality
ormalityTest
Test
command in AA-Squared
-S quared
PP-V-Value
alue
0.49
0.49
0.212
0.212
MINITABTM is an MMean
ean
SStDev
tD ev
514.71
514.71
6.85
6.85
VVariance 46.97
alternative method ariance
SSkew
kewness
Kurtosis
ness
46.97
-0.084725
-0.084725
-0.696960
Kurtosis -0.696960
to check for NN
MMinimum 500.64
144
144
inimum 500.64
Normality. Notice 1st
1stQQuartile
MMedian
uartile
edian
509.70
509.70
515.32
515.32
3rd
3rdQQuartile 520.12
that the P-value in 504
504
510
510
516
516
522
522
528
528
95%
MMaximum
uartile
aximum
520.12
529.39
529.39
95%CConfidence
onfidenceInterv
Intervalalfor
forMMean
ean
this window is the 513.58
513.58 515.84
515.84
95% C onfidence Interv al for M edian
same as the 513.90
513.90
516.37
516.37
95% C onfidence Interv al for StDev
95% C onfidence Interv al for S tD ev
previous. Mean
9 5 % C onfidence Inter vals
9 5 % C onfidence Inter vals 6.14
6.14
7.75
7.75
Mean
Median
Median
Notice that even 513.5
513.5
514.0
514.0
514.5
514.5
515.0
515.0
515.5
515.5
516.0
516.0
516.5
516.5
though the data are

Normal, the
distribution is quite wide.
wide If you had a process where you were filling bottles wouldn’t
wouldn t you expect
the process to be Normal?

248
“X” Sifting
MVA Solution
Now it is time to
perform the
process
capability. For
subgroup size is
enter 12 since all
12 bottles are
filled at the same
time. Also, use
500 milliliters as
the upper spec
limit in order to
see how bad the
capability was
from a
manufacturers
prospective.
Under the
“Options” tab you
can select the “Benchmark Z’s (sigma level)” of the process, or you can leave the default as
“Capability stats”. Just for fun you can run MINITABTM to generate the Capability Analysis using 500
as the upper spec limit, then run it again as the lower spec limit and see what happens to the
statistics
statistics.
MVA Solution
Is this process is in trouble?

Process
P
Process Capability
C bilit of
Capability off Volume
V l
Volume
The answer is yes, since the
USL
USL Z bench value is negative!
PProcess
rocessDData Within
LS
LSLL
ata
**
W ithin
Ov
O verall
erall
That is very bad. To correct
Target
Target
UUSSLL
**
500
500
PPotential
otential(Within)
(Within)CCapability
apability this problem the process has
Z.Bench
Z.Bench -2.89 -2.89
SSample
ampleMMean
SSample
ampleNN
ean 514.709
514.709
144
144
Z.LS L
Z.LS L ** to be set in such a manner
Z.U
Z.USSLL -2.89
-2.89
SStD
tDev
SStD
ev(Within)
tDev
(Within) 5.08411
ev(O
(Ovverall)
5.08411
erall) 6.86575
6.86575
CCpk
pk -0.96
-0.96 that none of the bottles are
OOvverall
erallCCapability
Z.Bench
Z.Bench
apability
-2.14
-2.14
ever under filled, while trying
Z.LS
Z LSLL
Z.LS
Z.U
Z.USSLL
**
-2.14
-2.14
to minimize the amount of
PPpk
pk
CCpm
pm
-0.71
-0.71
**
overfill.
To answer step three of this

500
500 504
504 508
508 512
512 516
516 520
520 524
524 528
528 exercise, it is a combination
OObserv
bservededPPerformance
erformance EExp.
xp.Within
WithinPPerformance
erformance EExp.
xp.OOvverall
erallPPerformance
erformance of reducing variation and
PPPPMM << LS
LSLL ** PPPPMM <<LS
LSLL ** PPPPMM <<LS
LSLL **
PPPPMM >> UUSSLL 1000000.00
1000000.00 PPPPMM >>UUSSLL 998092.41
998092.41 PPPPMM >>UUSSLL 983915.86
983915.86 shifting the Mean. The Mean
PPPPMM Total
Total 1000000.00
1000000.00 PPPPMM Total
Total 998092.41
998092.41 PPPPMM Total
Total 983915.86
983915.86
cannot be shifted however,
until
til th
the variation
i ti iis reduced
d d
REDUCE V ARIATIO N !! - then shift m ea n dramatically.

249
“X” Sifting
Perform an MVA
The order in which you enter the factors will
produce different graphs. The “classical”
method is to use Within, Between and over-
time (Temporal) order.
MVA Solution
The graph shows the variation within a unit is consistent across all the data. The variation between
units also looks consistent across all the data. What seems to stand out is the machine may be set
up differently from first shift to second. That should be easy to fix! What is the largest source of
variation? Within Unit Variation is the largest
largest, Temporal is the next largest (and probably easiest to
fix) and Between Unit Variation comes in last.
So to fix this process

your game plan should
W ha t is the la rgest source of va ria tion?
be based on the
Multi-Vari
Multi-Vari Chart
Chart for
for Volume
Volume by
by Within
Within--Temporal
Temporal
information in the Excel
11 22 11 22 11 22
file and involve 800 1100 1400 1700 2000 2300 W
800 1100 1400 1700 2000 2300 Within
ithin
additional information 530
530 11
22
you have about the 525
525
33
44
process. 55
66
520
520
77
Volume
Volume
88
This example was 515
515 99
based on a real process 510

10
10
11
11
510
where the nasty culprit 12
12
was actually the location 505

505
of the in-line scale. No 500

500
one wanted to believe 11 22 11 22

Between
11 22
Between
that a high price scale Panel
Panel variable:
variable: Temporal
Temporal
could be generating
significant variation.
The in-line scale weighed the bottles and either sent them forward to ship or rejected them to be
topped off. The wind generated by the positive pressure in the room blew across the scale making
the weights recorded fluctuate unacceptably. The filling machine was actually quite good, there
were a few adjustments made once the variation from the scale was fixed. Once the variation in
the data was reduced, they were able to shift the Mean closer to the specification of 500 ml.

250
“X” Sifting
Data Collection Sheet
The data used in the Multi-Vari Analysis must be balanced for R

Rememberb th the d
data
t usedd
MIN ITABTM to generate the graphic properly. in the Multi-Vari Analysis
must be balanced for
The injection molding data collection sheet was created as follows: MINITABTM to generate
– 3 time periods the graphic properly.
– 4 widgets per die cycle
– 3 units per time period The injection molding data
collection sheet was
created to include:
3 time periods
4 widgets per die cycle
3 units per time period
for a total of 36 rows of
data. (3 times 4 times 3)
The data sheet is now

balanced meaning that there
is an equal number of data
points for each condition in the
data table and ready for data
to be entered.
If you were to label the units 1

– 9 instead of 1 – 3 per time
period,
i d MINITABTM would ld
generate an error message
and would not be able to
create the graphic. Think in
terms of generic units instead
of being specific in labeling.

251
“X” Sifting
Classes of Distributions
By now you are
convinced that M ulti-Va ri is a tool tha t helps screen X ’s by visua lizing
Multi-Vari is a tool three prima ry sources of va ria tion. La ter w e w ill
that helps screen perform Hypothesis Tests ba sed on our findings.
X’s by visualizing
three primary
sources of At this point we will review classes and causes of distributions that
variation. At this can also help us screen X’s to perform Hypothesis Tests.
point we will review
classes and causes – N ormal Distribution
of distributions that
– N on-normality – 4 Primary Classifications
can also help us
screen X’s to 1. Skewness
perform Hypothesis
Tests. 2. Multiple Modes
3 Kurtosis
3.
4. Granularity
The Normal (Z) Distribution
Please review the

characteristics of Cha ra cteristics of norm a l distribution (Ga ussia n curve) a re:
the Gaussian – It is considered to be the most important distribution in statistics.
curve shown
– The total area under the curve is equal to 1.
here…
– The distribution is mounded and symmetric; it extends indefinitely in
both directions, approaching but never touching the horizontal axis.
– All processes will exhibit a normal curve shape if you have pure
random variation (white noise).
– The Z distribution has a Mean of 0 and a Standard Deviation of 1.
– The Mean divides the area in half, 50%
on one side and 50% on
the other side.
– The Mean, Median and
Mode are at the same
data point.
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6

252
“X” Sifting
Normal Distribution
This Normal Curve is W hy do w e ca re?

NOT a plot of our
– ON LY IF, we need accurate estimates of mean and standard deviation.
observed data!!!
• Our theoretical distribution should MOST accurately represent our
This theoretical
sample distribution in order to make accurate inferences about our
curve is estimated population.
based on our data’s
Mean and Standard
Deviation. Many
Hypothesis Tests
that are available
assume a Normal
Distribution. If the
assumption is not
satisfied we cannot
use them to infer
anything about the
future.
However, just
because a
distribution of sample data looks Normal does not mean that the variation cannot be reduced and a
new Normal Distribution created.
Non-Normal Distributions
Data may follow

Non-normal
Distributions for a 2 Kurtosis
variety of reason, 1 Sk ew ed
or there may be
multiple sources of
variation causing
data that would
otherwise be
normal to appear 4 Gra nula rity
not Normal. 3 M ulti-M oda l

253
“X” Sifting
Skewness Classification
When a distribution P t ti l Ca
Potentia C uses off Sk ew ness
is not symmetrical,
then it’s Skewed. Left Sk ew Right Sk ew
Generally a Skewed 60
distribution longest 40
50
tail points in the
Frequency
Frequency
30 40
direction of the 20 30
Skew. 10
20
10
0 0
10 15 20 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
1-1 N atural Limits

1-2 Artificial Limits (Sorting)
1-3 Mixtures
1 4 N on-Linear
1-4 on Linear Relationships
1-5 Interactions
1-6 N on-Random Patterns Across Time
Mixed Distributions 1-3
M ix ed Distributions occur when data comes from multiple sources

that are supposed to be the same yet are not.
M a chine A M a chine B
O pera tor A O pera tor B
Pa y ment M ethod A Pa y ment M ethod B Combined
Interview er A Interview er B
Sa m ple A
+ Sa mple B
=
What causes Mixed Distributions? Mixed Distributions occur when data comes from several sources
that are supposed to be the same but are not.
Note that both distributions that formed the combined Skewed Distribution started out as Normal
Distributions.

254
“X” Sifting
1-4 Non-Linear Relationships
Just because on Linea r Rela tionships occur w hen the X a nd Y sca les
N on-Linea
your Input (X) a re different.
is Normally
Distributed 10
about a Mean,
the Output (Y)
may not be
Normally
Distributed.
Y
M a rgina l Distribution
5
of Y
0 50 100
X
M a rgina l Distribution
of X
1 5 IInteractions
1-5 t ti
Intera ctions occur when two inputs interact with each other to
have a larger impact on Y than either would by themselves.
Interaction Plot for Process Output Aerosol Hairspray
On
35
Temperature
Spray
Off
30
Room T
25
No Spray
No Fire With Fire
If you find that two inputs have a large impact on Y but would not effect Y by themselves
themselves, this is
called a Interaction.
For instance, if you spray an aerosol can in the direction of a flame what would happen to room
temperature? What do you see regarding these distributions?

255
“X” Sifting
1-6 Time Relationships / Patterns
Th distribution
The di t ib ti is
i dependent
d d t on time.
ti Time
relationships
occur when the
30
distribution is
dependent on
M a rgina l Distrribution
time, some
25
examples are
tool wear,
wear
chemical bath
of Y
depletion, stock
20 prices, etc.
10 20 30 40 50
Tim e
O
Often
ften seen
seen w w hen
hen tooling
tooling requires
requires ““w
w aarm ing up”
rming up”,, tool
tool w
w ea
ear,
r,
chemica l ba th depletions, a mbient tem pera ture effect on tooling.
chemica l ba th depletions, a m bient tem pera ture effect on tooling.
Non-Normal Right (Positive) Skewed
Moment coefficient of Skewness will be close to zero for symmetric

distributions, negative for left skewed and positive for right skewed.
To measure Skewness we use Descriptive Statistics. When looking at a symmetrical distribution,

Skewness will be close to zero. If the distribution is skewed to the left it will have a negative number,
if skewed to the right, it should be positive.

256
“X” Sifting
Kurtosis 2
K t i refers
Kurtosis f tto th
the sha
h pe off the
th ta
t ils.
il Platykurtic are
flat with short-
– Leptokurtic tails.
– Platykurtic
• Different combinations of distributions causes the resulting overall
shapes.
Leptok urtic Pla tyk urtic

Pea k ed w ith Long-Ta ils Fla t w ith Short-Ta ils
Platykurtic
M ultiple M ea ns shifting over tim e produces a

pla tea u of the da ta a s the shift ex hibits this
shift. Ca uses:
2 -1 . M ix tures: (Com bined

Da ta from M ultiple
Processes)
Multiple Set-Ups
Multiple Batches
Multiple Machines
Tool W ear (over time)
2 -2
2 Sorting or Selecting:
Scrapping product that falls
outside the spec limits
2 -3 Trends or Pa tterns:
Lack of Independence in the
data (example: tool wear,
chemical bath)
2 -4 N on Linea r
Rela tionships
Chemical Systems
Negative coefficient of Kurtosis indicates Platykurtic distribution.

257
“X” Sifting
Leptokurtic
Positive
Kurtosis value Distributions
Di t ib ti overla
l ying
i ea ch
h other
th ththa t hah ve very
indicates different va ria nce ca n ca use a Leptok urtic
Leptokurtic distribution.
distribution. Ca uses:
2 -1 . M ix tures: (Com bined

Da ta from M ultiple
Processes)
Multiple Set-Ups
Set Ups
Multiple Batches
Multiple Machines
Tool W ear (over time)
2 -2 Sorting or Selecting:
Scrapping product that falls
outside the spec limits
2 -3 Trends or Pa tterns:
Lack of Independence in the data
(example: tool wear, chemical
bath)
2 -4 N on Linea r
Rela tionships
Chemical Systems
Multiple Modes 3
Rea sons for M ultiple M odes:
3-1 Mixtures of distributions ((most likely)

y)
3-2 Lack of independence – trends or patterns
3-3 Catastrophic failures (example: testing

voltage on a motor and the motor shorts
out so we get a zero reading etc.)
Make mine a la mode!
Multiple Modes have such dramatic combinations of underlying sources that they show distinct
modes. They may have shown as Platykurtic, but were far enough apart to see separation.
Celebrate! These are usually the easiest to identify causes.

258
“X” Sifting
Bimodal Distributions
Thi iis an example

This l off a Bi
Bi- 2 Different Distributions
Modal Distribution. -2 different m a chines
Interestingly each peak is -2 different opera tors
actually a Normal Distribution, -2 different a dm inistra tors
but when the data is viewed
as a group it is obviously not
Normal.
Extreme Bi-Modal (Outliers)
Descriptive Statistics
Variable: ExtremeBiMod
Anderson-Darling
Anderson Darling Normality Test
A-Squared: 22.657
P-Value: 0.000
Mean 28.8144
StDev 7.5702
Variance 57.3081
Skewness 1.37767
Kurtosis 2.66E-03
N 127
22 26 30 34 38 42 46
Minimum 22.6294
1 t Quartile
1st Q til 24 2649
24.2649
Median 25.2902
3rd Quartile 26.5494
95% Confidence Interval for Mu Maximum 45.3291
95% Confidence Interval for Mu
27.4851 30.1438
24.6 25.6 26.6 27.6 28.6 29.6 30.6 95% Confidence Interval for Sigma
6.7398 8.6359
95% Confidence Interval for Median
25 0263
25.0263 25 7491
25.7491
If you see an extreme outlier, it usually has its on cause or own source of variation. It’s relatively
easy to isolate the cause by looking on the X Axis of the Histogram.

259
“X” Sifting
Bi-Modal – Multiple Outliers
Having multiple outliers is

more difficult to correct. Descriptive Statistics
This action typically means Variable: C11
multiple inputs.
Anderson-Darling Normality Test
A-Squared: 20.899
P-Value: 0.000
Mean 26.2507
StDev 4.8453
Variance 23.4767
Skewness 3.17250
Kurtosis 9.11483
N 108
22 26 30 34 38 42 46
Minimum 22.6294
1st Quartile 24.1285
Median 25.0534
3rd Quartile 25.9709
95% Confidence Interval for Mu Maximum 46.0000
95% Confidence Interval for Mu
25.3265 27.1750
25 26 27 95% Confidence Interval for Sigma
4.2740 5.5943
24.8365 25.2971
Granular 4
Gra nula r da ta is ea sy to see w hen plotted w ith

a Dot Plot.
– Use Caution!
• It looks “ N ormal” but it is only symmetric and not continuous.
– Causes:
• 4-1 Measurement system resolution (Gage(G R&R)
& )
• 4-2 Categorical (step-type function) data
Now let’s take a moment and Notice the P-value in the Normal Probability Plot, it is definitely smaller
than 0.05!
There simply is not enough resolution in the data.

260
“X” Sifting
Normal Example
N otice the contra st to the previous pa ge!
Conclusions Regarding Distributions
N on-normal Distributions are not BAD!!!
N on
on-normal
normal Distributions can give more root cause
information than N ormal data (the nature of why…)
Understanding what the data is telling us is KEY !!!
W ha t do you w a nt to k now ???
Hey
y Honey,
y I found the key….
y
Here is what to conclude regarding distributions.

261
“X” Sifting
At this point, you should be able to:
Perform a Multi-Vari Analysis

Interpret and a Multi-Vari Graph
Identify when a Multi-Vari Analysis is applicable
Interpret
I t t what
h t Skewed
Sk d Data
D t looks
l k like
lik
Explain how data distributions become Non-normal
when they are really Normal
You have now completed Analyze Phase – ”X” Sifting.
Notes

262
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Analyze Phase
Inferential Statistics
Now we will continue in the Analyze Phase with Inferential Statistics

Statistics.

263
Overview
The core
W elcome
elcome to
to Ana
Analyze
lyze
phase are Inferential
Statistics, Nature of ““X
X”” Sifting
Sifting Inferential
Statistics
Sampling and
Central Limit Inferentia
Inferentiall Sta
Statistics
tistics N
Nature
ature of
of Sampling
Sampling
Theorem.
Intro
Intro to
to Hypothesis
Hypothesis Testing
Testing Central
Central Limit
Limit Theorem
Theorem
We will examine the
meaning of each of
these and show you Hypothesis
Hypothesis Testing
Testing N
NDD P1
P1
how to apply them.
Hypothesis
Hypothesis Testing
Testing N
NDD P2
P2
Hypothesis
Hypothesis Testing
Testing N
NNND
D P1
P1
Hypothesis
H h i Testing
Hypothesis TTesting
i N
NNND
D P2
P2
W
W ra
rapp Up
Up &
& Action
Action Items
Items
Nature of Inference
in·fer·ence (n.) “ The act or process of deriving logical conclusions

from premises known or assumed to be true. The act of reasoning
from factual knowledge or evidence.” 1 1. Dictionary.com
Inferentia l Sta tistics – To draw inferences about the process or

population being studied by modeling patterns of data in a way that
account for randomness and uncertainty in the observations. 2
2. W ikipedia.com
Putting the pieces of

the puzzle
together….
One objective of Six Sigma is to move from only describing the nature of the data or descriptive
statistics to that of inferring what will happen in the future with our data or Inferential Statistics.

264
5 Step Approach to Inferential Statistics
1 . W ha t do you w a nt to k now ?
2 . W ha t tool w ill give you tha t informa tion?
3 . W ha t k ind of da ta does tha t tool require?
4 . How w ill you collect the da ta ?
5 . How confident a re you of your da ta summa ries?
So many
questions….?
As with most things you have learned associated with Six Sigma – there are defined steps to be
taken.
Types of Error
1 . Error in sa mpling
– Error due to differences among samples drawn at random from the
population (luck of the draw).
– This is the only source of error that statistics can accommodate.
2 . Bia s in sa mpling
– Error due to lack of independence among random samples or due to
systematic sampling procedures (height of horse jockeys only).
3 . Error in mea surement
– Error in the measurement of the samples (MSA/ GR&R)
4 . La ck of mea surement va lidity
– Error in the measurement does not actually measure what it intends to
measure (placing a probe in the wrong slot measuring temperature
with a thermometer that is just next to a furnace).
Types of error contribute to uncertainty when trying to infer with data.
There are four types of error that are explained above.

265
Population, Sample, Observation
Popula tion
– EVERY data point that has ever been or ever will be generated from a given
characteristic.
Sa m ple
– A portion (or subset) of the population, either at one time or over time.
X
X X
X X
O bserva tion
– An
A individual
i di id l measurement.
t
Let’s just review a few definitions: A population is EVERY data point that has ever been or ever will
be generated from a given characteristic. A sample is a portion (or subset) of the population, either
at one time or over time. An observation is an individual measurement.
Significance
Significa nce is all about differences. In general, larger differences

(or deltas) are considered to be “ more significant.”
Pra ctica l difference and significance is:
– The amount of difference, change, or improvement that will be of
practical, economic, or technical value to you.
– The amount of improvement required to pay for the cost of making the
improvement.
Sta tistica l difference and significance is:
– The magnitude of difference or change required to distinguish
between a true difference, change, or improvement and one that
could have occurred by chance.
Six Sigma decisions will ultimately have a return on resource
investment (RORI)* element associated with them.
– The key question of interest for our decisions “ is the benefit of making
a change worth the cost and risk of making it?”
* RORI includes not only dollars and assets but the time and participation of your teams.

266
The Mission
Mean Shift Variation Both

Reduction
Your mission, which you have chosen to accept, is to reduce cycle time, reduce the error rate,
reduce costs, reduce investment, improve service level, improve throughput, reduce lead time,
increase productivity… change the output metric of some process, etc…
In statistical terms, this translates to the need to move the process Mean and/or reduce the process
Standard Deviation
You’ll be making decisions about how to adjust key process input variables based on sample data,
not population data - that means you are taking some risks.
How will you know your key process output variable really changed, and is not just an unlikely
sample? The Central Limit Theorem helps us understand the risk we are taking and is the basis for
using sampling to estimate population parameters.
A Distribution of Sample Means
Imagine you have some population. The individual values of this population form some distribution.
Take a sample of some of the individual values and calculate the sample Mean.
Keep taking samples and calculating sample Means.
Plot a new distribution of these sample Means.
The Central Limit Theorem says that as the sample size becomes large, this new distribution (the
sample Mean distribution) will form a Normal Distribution, no matter what the shape of the
population distribution of individuals.

267
Sampling Distributions—The Foundation of Statistics
Popula tion • Samples from the population, each with five observations:
3
5 Sa mple 1 Sa mple 2 Sa mple 3
2
12 1 9 2
10 12 8 3
1 9 5 6
6
12 7 14 11
5 8 10 10
6
12 7 .4 9 .2 6 .4
14
3 • In this example, we have taken three samples out of the
6 population, each with five observations in it. W e computed a
11
9 Mean for each sample. N ote that the Means are not the same!
10 • W hy not?
10
12
• W hat would happen if we kept taking more samples?
Every statistic derives from a sampling distribution. For instance, if you were to keep taking samples
from the population over and over, a distribution could be formed for calculating Means, Medians,
Mode, Standard Deviations, etc. As you will see the above sample distributions each have a
diff
different
t statistic.
t ti ti ThThe goall h
here iis tto successfully
f ll make
k iinferences
f regarding
di ththe statistical
t ti ti l ddata.
t
Constructing Sampling Distributions

To demonstrate how sampling distributions work we will create some random data for die rolls.
Create a sample of 1,000 individual rolls of a die that we will store in a variable named “Population”.
From the p
population,
p , we will draw five random samples.
p

268
Sampling Distributions
To draw random samples from the population follow the command shown below and repeat 4 more
times for the other columns.
Calc> Random Data> Sample from Columns…
Sampling Error
Ca lcula te the M ea n a nd Sta nda rd Devia tion for ea ch column Now compare
a nd compa re the sa mple sta tistics to the popula tion. the Mean and
Standard
Stat > Basic Statistics > Display Descriptive Statistics…
Deviation of the
samples of 5
Descriptive Sta tistics: Popula tion, Sa mple1 , Sa mple2 , Sa m ple3 , Sa mple4 , Sa mple5 observations to
the population.
Variable N N* Mean SE Mean StDev Minimum Q1 Median Q3 Maximum What do you
see?
Population 1000 0 3.5510 0.0528 1.6692 1.0000 2.0000 4.0000 5.0000 6.0000
Sample1
Sa pe 5 0 3.400
3 00 0.927
0 9 2.074
0 1.000
000 1.500
500 3.000
3 000 5.500
5 500 6.000
6 000
Sample2 5 0 4.600 0.678 1.517 2.000 3.500 5.000 5.500 6.000
Sample3 5 0 4.200 0.663 1.483 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.500 6.000
Sample4 5 0 3.800 0.917 2.049 2.000 2.000 3.000 6.000 6.000
Sample5 5 0 3.600 0.872 1.949 1.000 2.000 3.000 5.500 6.000
Ra nge in M ea n 1 .2 Ra nge in StDev 0 .5 9 1

269
Sampling Error
Create 5 more columns of data sampling 10 observations from the population

population.
Calc> Random Data> Sample from Columns…
Sampling
p g Error - Reduced
Calculate the Mean and Standard Deviation for each column and compare the sample statistics to
the population.
Stat > Basic Statistics > Display Descriptive Statistics…
Variable N N* Mean SE Mean StDev Minimum Q1 Median Q3 Maximum
S
Sample6
l 6 10 0 3 600
3.600 0 653
0.653 2 066
2.066 1 000
1.000 1 750
1.750 3 500
3.500 6 000
6.000 6 000
6.000
Sample7 10 0 4.100 0.567 1.792 1.000 2.750 4.500 6.000 6.000
Sample8 10 0 3.200 0.442 1.398 1.000 2.000 3.500 4.250 5.000
Sample9 10 0 3.500 0.563 1.780 1.000 2.000 3.500 5.250 6.000
Sample10 10 0 3.300 0.616 1.947 1.000 1.750 3.000 5.250 6.000
Range in mean 0.9 Range in StDev 0.668
W ith 1 0 observa tions, the differences

betw een sa m ples a re now m uch sm a ller.
Can you tell what is happening to the Mean and Standard Deviation? When the sample size
increases, the values of the Mean and Standard Deviation decrease.
What do you think would happen if the sample increased? Let’s try 30 for a sample size.

270
Sampling Error - Reduced
Do you notice
anything different?
Look how much

smaller the range of
the Mean and
Standard deviations.
Did the sampling
error get reduced?
Va ria ble N M ea n StDev

Sa mple 1 1 3 0 3 .7 3 3 1 .8 1 8
Sa mple 1 2 3 0 3 .8 0 0 1 .5 6 2
Sa mple 1 3 3 0 3 .4 0 0 1 .8 6 8
Sa mple 1 4 3 0 3 .6 6 7 1 .7 6 8
S mple
Sa l 15 30 3 .1
167 1 .4
487
Ra nge in M ea n 0 . 6 3 Ra nge in StDev 0 .3 8 1
In theory, if w e k ept ta k ing sa m ples of size n= 5 a nd

n= 1 0 a nd ca lcula ted the sa mple M ea ns, w e could see
how the sa m ple M ea ns a re distributed.
Simula te this in M IN ITABTM by crea ting ten colum ns of

1 0 0 0 rolls of a die:
Feeling lucky…?
Now instead of looking at the effect of sample size on error, we will create a sampling distribution
of averages. Follow along to generate your own random data.

271
For ea ch row , ca lcula te the M ea n of five columns.
Repea
p tt this
Repea this com
commmaand
nd
to
to ca
calcula
lculate
te the
the M
Meaeann
of
of C1
C1-C1
-C100,, aand
nd store
store
result
result in
in M
Meaeann 1100
The commands shown above will create new columns that are now averages from the columns of
random population data. We have 1000 averages of sample size 5 and 1000 averages of sample
size
i 1010.
Crea te a Histogra m of C1 , M ea n5 a nd M ea n1 0 .
Graph> Histogram> Simple…..
Multiple
p Graph…On
p separate
p graphs…Same
g p X,, including
g same bins
In MINITABTM
follow the above
commands. The
Histogram being
generated makes
it easy to see
what happened
when the sample
size was
Select
Select ““Sa
Sam meeX X ,,
including
increased.
including sasammee
bins”
bins” to
to fa
facilita
cilitate
te
com
compapa rison
rison

272
Different Distributions
Sa m ple M ea ns
1. W hat is different about the

three distributions?
2. W hat happens as the

number of dice increases?
Individua ls
Observations
As the sample size (number of dice) increases from 1 to 5 to 10, there

are three points to note:
1. The center remains the same.
2. The variation decreases.
3. The shape of the distribution changes - it tends to become
normal.
The M ea n of the sa m ple The Sta nda rd Devia tion of the
M ea n distribution: sa m ple M ea n distribution, a lso
k now n a s the sta nda rd error.
Good new s: the M ea n of the Better new s: I ca n reduce m y

sa mple M ea n distribution is the uncerta inty
y a bout the p
popula
p tion
m ea n of the popula tion. m ea n by increa sing m y sa m ple
size n.
Central Limit Theorem

If all possible random samples, each of size n, are taken from any
population with a Mean μ and Standard Deviation σ, the distribution
of sample Means will:
have a Mean
Everything we have gone have a Std Dev
through with sampling error
and sampling distributions
was leading up to the and be normally distributed when the parent population is
normally distributed, or will be approximately normal for samples
Central Limit Theorem. of size 30 or more when the parent population is not normally
distributed
distributed.
This improves with samples of larger size.
Bigger is Better!

273
So What?
So how does this theorem help me understa nd the

risk I a m ta k ing w hen I use sa mple da ta , instea d of
popula tion da ta ?
Recall that 95% of N ormally Distributed data is within ± 2 Standard

Deviations from the Mean. Therefore, the probability is 95% that my
sample Mean is within 2 standard errors of the true population Mean.
A Practical Example
Let’s sa y your project is to reduce the setup time for a

la rge ca sting:
– Based on a sample of 20 setups, you learn that your baseline

average is 45 minutes, with a Standard Deviation of 10
minutes.
– Because this is just a sample, the 45 minute average is just an
estimate of the true average.
– Using the central limit theorem
theorem, there is 95% probability that
the true average is somewhere between 40.5 and 49.5
minutes.
– Therefore, don’t get too excited if you made a process change
that resulted in a reduction of only 2 minutes.
What is the likelihood of getting a sample with a 2 second difference? This could be caused either
by implementing changes or could be a result of random sampling variation, sampling error. The
95% confidence interval exceeds the 2 second difference (delta) seen as a result. What is the delta
caused from? This could be a true difference in performance or random sampling error
error. This is why
you look further than only relying on point estimators.

274
Sample Size and the Mean
W hen ta k ing a sa mple w e ha ve only estima ted the

true M ea n :
– All we know is that the true Mean lies somewhere within the
theoretical distribution of sample Means or the t-distribution which are
analyzed using t-tests.
– T-tests measure the significance of differences between Means.
Theoretica l distribution of
sa mple M ea ns for n = 2
Distribution of
Theoretica l distribution of
individua ls in the
sa mple M ea ns for n = 1 0
popula tion
Standard Error of the Mean
The Sta nda rd Devia tion for the distribution of M ea ns is

ca lled the sta nda rd error of the M ea n a nd is defined a s:
– This formula shows that the Mean is more stable than a single
observation by a factor of the square root of the sample size.

275
Standard Error
The ra te of cha nge in the sta nda rd error a pproa ches zero
a t a bout 3 0 sa mples.
Sta nda rd Errror
0 5 10 20 30
Sa m ple Size
This is w hy 3 0 sa mples is often recommended w hen

genera ting summa ry sta tistics such a s the M ea n a nd
Sta nda rd Devia tion.
This is a lso the point a t w hich the t a nd Z distributions

become nea rly equiva lent.
When comparing standard error with sample size, the rate of change in the standard error
approaches zero at about 30 samples. This is why a sample size of 30 comes up often in discussions
on sample size.
This is the point at which the t and the Z distributions become nearly equivalent. If you look at a Z
table and a t table to compare
p Z=1.96 to t at 0.975 as sample
p approaches
pp infinite degrees
g of freedom
they are equal.

276
Explain the term “Inferential Statistics”
Explain the Central Limit Theorem
Describe what impact sample size has on your

estimates of population parameters
Explain Standard Error
You have now completed Analyze Phase – Inferential Statistics.
Notes

277
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Analyze Phase
Introduction to Hypothesis Testing
Now we will continue in the Analyze Phase with “Introduction

Testing”.

278

Overview
The core
W elcome
elcome to
to Ana
Analyze
lyze
phase are
Hypothesis Testing, ““X
X”” Sifting
Sifting
Tests for Central
Tendency, Tests for Hypothesis
Inferentia
Inferentiall Sta
Statistics
tistics Hypothesis Testing
Testing Purpose
Purpose
Variance and
ANOVA. Tests
Tests for
for Centra
Centrall Tendency
Tendency
Intro
Intro to
to Hypothesis
yyp
Hypothesis Testing
gg
Testing
We will examine the Tests
Tests for
for Va
Varia
riance
nce
meaning of each of Hypothesis
Hypothesis Testing
Testing N
NDD P1
P1
these and show you AN
ANOVA
OVA
how to apply them. Hypothesis
Hypothesis Testing
Testing N
NDD P2
P2
Hypothesis
Hypothesis Testing
Testing N
NNND
D P1
P1
Hypothesis
Hypothesis Testing
Testing N
NNND
D P2
P2
W
W ra
rapp Up
Up &
& Action
Action Items
Items
Six Sigma Goals and Hypothesis Testing
Our goal is to improve our Process Capability, this translates to the need to move the process Mean
(or proportion) and reduce the Standard Deviation.
Because it is too expensive or too impractical (not to mention theoretically impossible) to
collect population data, we will make decisions based on sample data.
Because we are dealing with sample data, there is some uncertainty about the true
population parameters.
Hypothesis Testing helps us make fact-based decisions about whether there are different population
parameters or that the differences are just due to expected sample variation.
Process Capability of Process Before Process Capability of Process After
LSL USL LSL USL

P rocess Data Within P rocess Data Within
LSL 100.00000 Ov erall LSL 100.00000 Ov erall
Target * Target *
USL 120.00000 P otential (Within) C apability USL 120.00000 P otential (Within) C apability
Sample M ean 108.65832 Cp 1.42 S ample M ean 109.86078 Cp 2.14
Sample N 150 C PL 1.23 S ample N 100 C PL 2.11
StD ev (Within) 2.35158 C PU 1.61 S tD ev (Within) 1.55861 C PU 2.17
StD ev (O v erall) 5.41996 C pk 1.23 S tD ev (O v erall) 1.54407 C pk 2.11
C C pk 1.42 C C pk 2.14
O v erall C apability O v erall C apability
Pp 0.62 Pp 2.16
PPL 0.53 PPL 2.13
PPU 0.70 PPU 2.19
P pk 0.53 P pk 2.13
C pm * C pm *
96 100 104 108 112 116 120 102 105 108 111 114 117 120
O bserv ed P erformance E xp. Within P erformance E xp. O v erall P erformance O bserv ed P erformance Exp. Within P erformance E xp. O v erall P erformance
P P M < LS L 6666.67 P P M < LSL 115.74 P P M < LSL 55078.48 P P M < LS L 0.00 P P M < LSL 0.00 P P M < LSL 0.00
PPM > USL 0.00 PPM > USL 0.71 P P M > U SL 18193.49 P P M > U SL 0.00 P P M > U S L 0.00 P P M > U S L 0.00
P P M Total 6666.67 P P M Total 116.45 P P M Total 73271.97 P P M Total 0.00 P P M Total 0.00 P P M Total 0.00

279
Purpose of Hypothesis Testing
The purpose of appropriate Hypothesis Testing is to integrate the Voice of the Process with the
Voice of the Business to make data-based decisions to resolve problems.
Hypothesis Testing can help avoid high costs of experimental efforts by using existing data. This
can be likened to:
Local store costs versus mini bar expenses.
There may be a need to eventually use experimentation, but careful data analysis can
indicate a direction for experimentation if necessary.
The probability of occurrence is based on a pre-determined statistical confidence.

Decisions are based on:
Beliefs (past experience)
Preferences (current needs)
Evidence (statistical data)
Risk (acceptable level of failure)
The Basic Concept for Hypothesis Tests
Recall from the discussion on classes and cause of distributions that a data set may seem Normal,
yet still be made up of multiple distributions.
Hypothesis Testing can help establish a statistical difference between factors from different
distributions.
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
freq
0.4
03
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
x
Did my sample come from this population? Or this? Or this?
Because of not having the capability to test an entire population, having to use a sample is the
closest we can get to the population. Since we are using sample data and not the entire population
we need to have methods what will allow us to infer the sample if a fair representation of then
population.
When we use a proper sample size, Hypothesis Testing gives us a way to detect the likelihood that
a sample came from a particular distribution. Sometimes the questions can be: Did our sample
come from a population with a mean of 100? Is our sample variance significantly different than the
variance of the population? Is it different from a target?

280
Significant Difference
Are the two distributions “ significantly” different from each

other? How sure are we of our decision?
How do the number of observations affect our confidence in

detecting population Mean?
μ1 μ2
Sa mple 1 Sa mple 2
Do you see a difference between Sample 1 and Sample 2? There may be a real difference between
the samples shown; however, we may not be able to determine a statistical difference. Our
confidence is established statistically which has an effect on the necessary sample size. Our ability
to detect a difference is directly linked to sample size and in turn whether we practically care about
such a small difference.
Detecting Significance
Sta tistics provide a methodology to detect differences.

– Examples
p might
g include differences in suppliers,
pp , shifts or
equipment.
– Two types of significant differences occur and must be well
understood, pra ctica l and sta tistica l.
– Failure to tie these two differences together is one of the most
common errors in statistics.
H O : The sk y is not fa lling.
H A : The sk y is fa lling.
We will discuss the difference between practical and statistical throughout this session. We can
affect the outcome of a statistical test simply by changing the sample size.

281
Practical vs. Statistical
Pra ctica l Difference: The difference which results in an

improvement of practical or economic value to the company.
– Example, an improvement in yield from 96 to 99 percent.
Sta tistica l Difference: A difference or change to the process that

probably
b bl ((withith some d
defined
fi d ddegree off confidence)
fid ) did nott h
happen
by chance.
– Examples might include differences in suppliers, markets or servers.
W e w ill see tha t it is possible to rea lize a sta tistica lly

significa
g nt difference w ithout rea lizing g a pra
p ctica lly y
significa nt difference.
Lets take a moment to explore the concept of Practical Differences versus Statistical Differences.
Detecting Significance
During the Measure Phase, it is important that the nature M ea n Shift

of the problem be well understood.
In understanding the problem, the practical difference to

be achieved must match the statistical difference.
g in the Mean or in
The difference d can be either a change
the variance.
Detection of a difference is then accomplished using

statistical Hypothesis Testing.
Va ria tion
An important concept to understand is the process of Reduction
detecting a significant change. How much of a shift in the
Mean will offset the cost in making a change to the
process?
This is not necessarily the full shift from the Business

Case of your project. Realistically, how small or how large
a delta is required? The larger the delta, the smaller the
necessary sample will be because there will be a very
small overlap of the distributions. The smaller the delta is, the larger the sample size has to be to be
able
bl tto d
detect
t t a statistical
t ti ti l diff
difference.

282
Hypothesis Testing
A Hypothesis
H T t is
th i Test i an a priori
i i theory
th relating
l ti tot differences
diff b
between
t variables.
i bl
A statistical test or Hypothesis Test is performed to prove or disprove the theory.
A Hypothesis Test converts the practical problem into a statistical problem.

Since relatively small sample sizes are used to
estimate population parameters, there is always a
chance of collecting a non
non-representative
representative sample
sample.
Inferential Statistics allows us to estimate the
probability of getting a non-representative sample
DICE Example
You have rolled dice before haven’t you? You know dice that you would find in a board game or in
Las Vegas.
Well assume that we suspect a single die is “Fixed.” Meaning it has been altered in some form or
fashion to make a certain number appear more often that it rightfully should.
Consider the example on how we would go about determining if in fact a die was loaded.
If we threw the die five times and got five one’s, what would you conclude? How sure can you be?
The pprobability
y of g
getting
g jjust a single
g one. The p
probability
y of g
getting
g five ones.
W e could throw it a number of times and track how many each face
occurred. W ith a standard die, we would expect each face to occur 1/ 6 or
16.67% of the time.
If we threw the die 5 times and got 5 one’s, what would you conclude? How
sure can you be?
– Pr (1 one) = 0.1667 Pr (5 ones) = (0.1667)5 = 0.00013
There are approximately 1.3 chances out of 1000 that we could have gotten
5 ones with a standard die.
Therefore, we would say we are willing to take a 0.1% chance of being
wrong about our hypothesis that the die was “ loaded” since the results do not
come
co e cclose
ose to ou
our p
predicted
ed cted outco
outcome.
e

283
Hypothesis Testing
When it comes to Hypothesis

Hypothesis, you must look at
three focus points to help validate your claim.
These points are Type I, Type II and Sample
Size. α
DECISIONS
β n
How Likely is Unlikely?
A differences
Any diff between
b observed
b dddata and
d claims
l i made
d under
d H0 may b
be reall or d
due to chance.
h
Hypothesis Tests determine the probabilities of these differences occurring solely due to chance and
call them P-values.
The a level of a test (level of significance) represents the yardstick against which p-values are
measured and H0 is rejected if the P-value is less than the alpha level.
Th mostt commonly
The l used
d a llevels
l are 5%
5%, 10% and
d 1%
1%.
Hypothesis Testing Risk

The alpha risk or Type 1 Error (generally called the “Producer’s Risk”) is the probability that we
could be wrong in saying that something is “different.” It is an assessment of the likelihood that
the observed difference could have occurred by random chance. Alpha is the primary decision-
makingg tool of most statistical tests.
Alpha risk can also be Actua l Conditions

explained as: The risk with N ot Different Different
implementing a change when (Ho is True) (Ho is False)
you should not.
N ot Different Correct Type II
Alpha risk is typically lower
than beta risk because you are ((Fail to Reject
j Ho)) Decision Error
more hesitant to make a Sta tistica l
mistake about claiming the Conclusions
significance of an X (and
Different
Type 1 Correct
therefore spending money) as
(Reject Ho) Error Decision
compared to overlooking an X
(which is never revealed).
There of ttwo
o ttypes
pes of error T
Type
pe I with
ith an associated risk eq
equal
al to alpha (the first letter in the Greek
alphabet), and of course named the other one Type II with an associated risk equal to beta.
The formula reads: alpha is equal to the probability of making a Type 1 error, or alpha is equal to
the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is true.

284
Alpha Risk
Alpha (α ) risk s a re ex pressed rela tive to a reference

distribution.
Distributions include:
– t-distribution The
The aa-level
-level is
is represented
represented by
by
– z-distribution the
the clouded
clouded aarea
reas.
s.
Sa
Sammple
ple results
results in
in this
this aarea
rea
– χ2 - distribution lea
leadd to
to rejection
rejection of H00..
of H
– F-distribution
Region R i
Region
of of
DO UBT DO UBT
Accept a s cha nce differences
Hypothesis
yp Testing
g Risk
The beta risk or Type 2 Error (also called the “Consumer’s Risk”) is the probability that we could
be wrong in saying that two or more things are the same when, in fact, they are different.
Actua l Conditions
N ot Different Different
(Ho is True) (Ho is False)
N ot Different Correct Type II

(Fail to Reject Ho) Decision Error
Sta tistica l
Conclusions
Different
Type 1 Correct
(Reject Ho) Error Decision
Another way to describe beta risk is failing to recognize an improvement. Chances are the sample
size was inappropriate or the data was imprecise and/or inaccurate.
Reading the formula: Beta is equal to the probability of making a Type 2 error.
Or: Beta is equal to the probability of failing to reject the null hypothesis given that the null
hypothesis is false.

285
Beta Risk
Beta and sample

size are very Beta Risk is the probability of failing to reject the null hypothesis
closely related. when a difference exists.
When calculating
Sample size in Distribution if H 0 is
true
MINITABTM, we
always enter the Reject H 0
“power” of the test α = Pr(Type 1 error)
which
hi h iis one
α = 0.05
minus beta. In
doing so, we are H0 value
establishing a
sample size that
Accept H 0
will allow the β= Pr(Type II error) Distribution if H a is
proper overlap of true
distributions.
μ
Critica
Criticall va
value
lue of
of
test
test sta
statistic
tistic
Distinguishing between Two Samples
Recall from the Central Limit Theorem as the Theoretical Distribution

number of individual observations increase the of Means
Standard Error decreases. δ When n = 2
δ=5
In this example when n=2 we cannot S=1
distinguish the difference between the Means
(> 5% overlap
overlap, P-value
P value > 0.05).
0 05)
When n=30, we can distinguish between the

Means (< 5% overlap, P-value < 0.05) There is
a significant difference.
Theoretical Distribution
of Means
When n = 30
δ=5
S=1

286
Delta Sigma—The Ratio between d and S
Delta (d) is the size of the difference between

two Means or one Mean and a target value.
Large Delta
Sigma (S) is the sample Standard Deviation of
the distribution of individuals of one or both of
δ
the samples under question.
When & S is large, we don’t need statistics

b
because th
the diff
differences are so llarge.
If the variance of the data is large, it is difficult

to establish differences. We need larger
sample sizes to reduce uncertainty.
Large S
We want to be 95% confident in all of our estimates!
All samples are estimates of the population. All statistics based on samples are estimates of the
equivalent population parameters. All estimates could be wrong!
These are typical questions you will experience or hear during sampling. The most common answer
is “It depends.”. Primarily because someone could say a sample of 30 is perfect where that may
actually be too many. Point is you don’t know what the right sample is without the test.
Question: “How many samples should we take?”

Answer: “Well, that depends on the size of your delta and
Standard Deviation”.
Question: “How should we conduct the sampling?”

Answer: “Well, that depends on what you want to know”.
Question: “Was the sample we took large enough?”

Answer: “Well, that depends on the size of your delta and
Standard Deviation”.
Question: “Should we take some more samples just to be sure?”

Answer: “No, not if you took the correct number of samples the
first time!”

287
The Perfect Sample Size

The minimum sample size
required to provide exactly 5%
overlap (risk). In order to
distinguish the Delta.
Note: If you are working with non-

Normal Data, multiply your
calculated sample size by 1.1.
40 50 60 70
Popula tion
40 50 60 70
Hypothesis Testing Roadmap – Continuous Data
H
Here iis a H
Hypothesis
th i T Testing
ti roadmap
d ffor C
Continuous
ti D
Data.
t Thi
This iis a greatt reference
f ttooll while
hil you
are conducting Hypothesis Tests.
N orm a l
u s
i n uo
nt
Co Da ta
Test of Equa l Va ria nce 1 Sa m ple Va ria nce 1 Sa m ple t-test
Va ria nce Equa l Va ria nce N ot Equa l
2 Sa m ple T O ne W a y AN O VA 2 Sa m ple T O ne W a y AN O VA

288
s
ou
t i nu
n
Co D a ta N on N orma l
Test of Equa l Va ria nce M edia n Test
M a nn-W hitney Severa l M edia n Tests
Hypothesis Testing Roadmap – Attribute Data
Attribute Da ta
u te
t t r ib
A a ta
D
One Fa ctor Tw o Fa ctors
Two Samples Two or More Samples
One Sample
One Sa mple Tw o Sa mple Chi Squa re Test

Proportion Proportion (Contingency
Ta ble))
Minitab:
Stat - Basic Stats - 2 Proportions Minitab:
If P-value < 0.05 the proportions Stat - Tables - Chi-Square Test
are different If P-value < 0.05 at least one
proportion is different
Chi Squa re Test

(Contingency
Ta ble)
Minitab:
Stat - Tables - Chi-Square Test
If P-value < 0.05 the factors are not
independent

289
Common Pitfalls to Avoid
W hile
hil using
i H Hypothesis
th i T Testing
ti ththe ffollowing
ll i ffacts
t should
h ld bbe b
borne in
i
mind at the conclusion stage:
– The decision is about Ho and N OT Ha.
– The conclusion statement is whether the contention of Ha was upheld.
– The null hypothesis (Ho) is on trial.
– W hen a decision has been made:
• N othing has been proved.
• It is just a decision.
• All decisions can lead to errors (Types I and II).
– If the decision is to “ Reject Ho,” then the conclusion should read “ There
is sufficient evidence at the α level of significance
g to show that “ state the
alternative hypothesis Ha.”
– If the decision is to “ Fail to Reject Ho,” then the conclusion should read
“ There isn’t sufficient evidence at the α level of significance to show that
“ state the alternative hypothesis.”
Notes

290
Articulate the purpose of Hypothesis Testing

Explain the concepts of the Central Tendency
Be familiar with the types of Hypothesis Tests
You have now completed Analyze Phase – Introduction to Hypothesis Testing.
Notes

291
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Analyze Phase
Hypothesis Testing Normal Data Part 1
Now we will continue in the Analyze Phase with “Hypothesis

Hypothesis Testing Normal Data Part 1”
1.

292
Overview
The core
W elcom
elcomee to
to Ana
Analy
lyze
ze
phase are
Hypothesis Testing, ““X
X”” Sifting
Sifting
Tests for Central
Tendency, Tests for Inferentia
Inferentiall Sta
Statistics
tistics
Variance and
ANOVA.
Intro
Intro to
to Hypothesis
Hy pothesis Testing
Testing Sa
Sample
p Size
mple Size
We will examine the
meaning of each of Hypothesis
Hypothesis Testing
Testing N
NDD P1
P1 Testing
Testing M
Mea
eans
ns
these and show you Ana
Analy
lyzing
zing Results
Results
Hypothesis Testing
Testing N
NDD P2
P2
Hy pothesis Testing
Hypothesis Testing N
NNND
D P1
P1
Hypothesis
H th i Testing
Hypothesis Testing
T ti N
NNND
D P2
P2
W
W ra
rapp Up
Up &
& Action
Action Items
Item s
Test of Means (t-tests)
T-tests are used to compare a Mean against a target and to compare Means from two different
samples and to compare paired data. When comparing multiple Means it is inappropriate to use a t-
test. Analysis of variance or ANOVA is used when it is necessary to compare more than two Means.
t-tests a re used:
– To compare
p a Mean against
g a target.
g
• i.e.; The team made improvements and wants to compare
the mean against a target to see if they met the target.
– To compare Means from two different samples.

• i.e.; Machine one to machine two.
• i.e.;
i S
Supplier
li one quality
lit tto supplier
li ttwo quality.
lit
– To compare paired data.

• Comparing the same part before and after a given process.
They don’t
The d ’t look
l k the
same to me!

293
1 Sample t
Here we are looking for the region in which we can be 95% sure our true population Mean will lie
lie.
This is based on a calculated average, Standard Deviation, number of trials and a given alpha risk of
.05.
A 1-sample t-test is used to compare an expected population mean to a
In order for the Mean target.
of the sample to be
considered not
significantly different
than the target,
target the
target must fall within Target μsample
the confidence
interval of the sample MIN ITABTM performs a one sample t-test or t-confidence interval for the Mean.
Mean.
Use 1-sample t to compute a confidence interval and perform a hypothesis
test of the Mean when the population Standard Deviation, σ, is unknown. For
a one or two-tailed 1-sample t:
– H0 : μsample = μtarget If p-va lue > 0 .0 5 fa il to reject H o

– Ha: μsample ≠, <, > μtarget If p-va lue < 0 .0 5 reject H o
1 Sample t-test Sample Size
T One common pitfall in

statistics is not understanding
Ta rget what the proper sample size
Popula tion should be. If you look at the
graphic, the question is: Is
n= 2 Ca n not tell the X there a difference between my
X X
difference
X
XX
X
process Mean and the desired
betw een the sa m ple X
a nd the ta rget. X X X X
X X target. If we had population
n= 3 0 Ca n tell the data, it would be very easy –
X
difference X no they are not the same, but
betw een the sa m ple XX
a nd the ta rget. X X they may be within an
X XX acceptable tolerance (or
S specification window). If we
SE Mean =
n took a sample of 2 can we tell
a difference? NoNo, because the
spread of the distribution of averages from samples of 2 will create too much uncertainty and make it
very difficult to statistically say there is a difference.
If you remember from earlier, 95% of the area under the curve of a Normal Distribution falls within plus
or minus 2 Standard Deviations. Confidence intervals are based on your selected alpha level, so if you
selected an alpha of 5%, then the confidence interval would be 95% which is roughly plus or minus 2
Standard Deviations. Using your eye to guesstimate you can see that the target value falls within plus
or minus 2 Standard Deviations of the sampling distribution of sample size 2
2.
If you used a sample of 30, could you tell if the target was different? Just using your eye it appears
that the target is outside the 95% confidence interval of the Mean. Luckily, MINITABTM makes this very
easy…

294
Sample Size
IInstead
t d off going
i To determine proper sa mple size in M IN ITABTM :
through the dreadful
hand calculations of
sample size we will
use MINITABTM.
Three fields must be
filled in and one left
blank in the sample Three fields m ust be filled
in a nd one left bla nk .
size window.
MINITABTM will solve
for the third. If you
want to know the
sample size, you must
enter the difference,
which is the shift that
mustt be
b detected.
d t t d It isi
common to state the
difference in terms of
“generic” Standard Deviations when you do not have an estimate for the Standard Deviation of the
process. For example, if you want to detect a shift of 1.5 Standard Deviations enter that in difference
and enter 1 for Standard Deviation. If you knew the Standard Deviation and it was 0.8, then enter it
for Standard Deviation and 1.2 for the difference (which is a 1.5 Standard Deviation shift in terms of
real values)
values).
If you are unsure of the desired difference, or in many cases simply get stuck with a sample size that
you didn’t have a lot of control over, MINITABTM will tell you how much of a difference can be
detected. You as a practitioner must be careful when drawing Practical Conclusions because it is
possible to have statistical significance without practical significance. In other words- do a reality
check. MINITABTM has made it easy to see an assortment of sample sizes and differences.
Try the example shown.

shown
Pow er a nd Sa m ple Size
Notice that as the sample size
1 -Sa m ple t Test
increases, there is not as big an
effect on the difference. If it was only Testing M ea n = null (versus not = null)
necessary to see a difference of 0.9, Ca lcula ting pow er for M ea n = null + difference
why bother taking any more samples Alpha = 0 .0 5 Assum ed Sta nda rd Devia tion = 1
than 15? The Standard Deviation Sa m ple
entered has an effect on the
Size Pow er Difference
difference calculated.
10 0 .9 1 .1 5 4 5 6
Take a few moments and explore 15 0 .9 0 .9 0 0 8 7
The va rious sa mple
different Standard Deviation sizes in 20 0 .9 0 .7 6 4 4 6 sizes show how much
MINITABTM to see their effect on
25 0 .9 0 .6 7 5 9 0 of a difference ca n be
difference.
30 0 .9 0 .6 1 2 4 5 detected a ssuming a
35 0 .9 0 .5 6 4 0 8
Sta nda rd Devia tion = 1 .
40 0 .9 0 .5 2 5 6 4

295
1-Sample t Example
1 . Pra ctica l Problem:

• W e are considering changing suppliers for a part that we currently
purchase from a supplier that charges us a premium for the hardening
process.
• The proposed new supplier has provided us with a sample of their
product. They have stated that they can maintain a given characteristic
of 5 on their product.
• W e want to test the samples and determine if their claim is accurate.
2 . Sta tistica l Problem:

Ho: μN .S. = 5
Ha: μN .S.
S ≠ 5
3 . 1 -sa mple t-test (popula tion Sta nda rd Devia tion unk now n,
compa ring to ta rget).
α = 0.05 β = 0.10
Let’s now try a 1-sample t example.
Step 1: Take a moment and review the practical problem

Step 2: The Statistical Problem is: The null hypothesis is the Mean of the new supplier is equal to 5.
The alternative hypothesis is the Mean of the new supplier is not equal to 5. This is considered a 2-
tailed test if you’ve heard that terminology before.
Step 3: Our selected alpha level is 0.05 and beta is 0.10.
4 . Sa mple Size:
• O pen the M IN ITABTM w ork sheet:
Ex h_Sta t.M TW
• Use the C1 colum n: Va lues
– In this ca se, the new supplier
sent 9 sa mples for eva lua tion.
– How much of a difference ca n
be detected w ith this sa mple?

296
Hypothesis Testing
Follow along in
MINITABTM, as you can
see, we will be able to
detect a difference of
1.23 with the sample of
9.
If this was not good

enough you would need
enough, M IN ITABTM Session W indow
to request additional Pow er a nd Sa mple Size
samples. 1 -Sa mple t Test
Testing m ea n = null (versus not = null)
This m ea ns w e w ill only be Ca lcula ting pow er for m ea n = null +
a ble to detect a difference of difference
only 1 .2 4 if the popula tion ha s Alpha = 0 .0 5 Assum ed sta nda rd
a Sta nda rd Devia tion of 1 unit. devia tion = 1
Sa mple
9 0 .9 1 .2 3 7 4 8
Example: Follow the Road Map
Now refer to the road map for Hypothesis Testing, you must first check for Normality. In MINITABTM
select “Stats>Basic Statistics>Normality Test”. For the “Variable Fields” double-click on “Values” in
the left-hand box. Once this is complete select “OK”.
Since the P-value is greater than 0.05 we fail to reject the null hypothesis that the data are Normal.
5 . Sta te Sta tistica l Solution
Probability Plot of Values

Normal
99
Mean 4.789
StDev 0.2472
95 N 9
AD 0.327
90
P-Value 0.442
80
70
Percent
60
50
40
30
20
Are
Are the
the
10
da
datata in
in the
the
va
values
lues
column
l
colum n
4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 norma
norm al? l?
Values

297
1-Sample t Example
Perform the one sample t-t
test. In MINITABTM select
Stat>Basic Statistics>1-
Sample t. From the left-
hand box double-click on
“Values”.
Click “ Gra phs”
In the “Options” button
th
there iis a selection
l ti ffor th
the -Select
S l t a ll 3
alternative hypothesis, the Click “ O ptions
default is not equal which
corresponds to our - In CI enter 9 5
hypothesis. If your
alternative hypothesis was
a greater than or less than,
you would have to change
y g
the default.
Histogram of Values
Based of the graph we can

Histogram
Histogramof
ofValues
say there is a statistical (with
(withHo
Hoand
and95%
Values
95%t-confidence
t-confidenceinterval
intervalfor
forthe
themean)
mean)
difference or reject the null 2.0
2.0
hypothesis for the following
reason: 1.5
1.5
ency
ency
A Histogram is not 1.0

10
1.0
FFreque
reque
especially interesting when

0.5
0.5
there are so few data points
but it does show the 95% 0.0
0.0 __
XX
confidence interval of the Ho
Ho
data along with the 4.4

4.4 4.5
4.5 4.6
4.6 4.7
4.7
Values
4.8
Values
4.8 4.9
4.9 5.0
5.0 5.1
5.1
hypothesized value of 5
noted as the Ho or null N ote our ta rget M ea n (represented by red Ho) is outside our
hypothesis. popula tion confidence bounda ries w hich tells tha t there is
significa nt difference betw een popula tion a nd ta rget M ea n.

298
Box Plot of Values
Boxplot
Boxplotof
ofValues
Values
(with
(withHo
Hoand
and95%
95%t-confidence
intervalfor
forthe
themean)
mean)
__
XX
Ho
Ho
4.4
4.4 4.5
4.5 4.6
4.6 4.7
4.7 4.8
4.8 4.9
4.9 5.0
5.0 5.1
5.1
Values
Values
The Box Plot shows a different representation of the data

data, but the conclusion is the same
same.
Individual Value Plot (Dot Plot)
I di id l Value
Individual V l Pl t off Values
Plot V l
(with Ho and 95% t-confidence interval for the mean)
_
X
Ho
4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1

Values
As you will see the conclusion is the same, but the Dot Plot is just another representation of data.

299
Session Window
Ho Ha
n
(X i − X ) 2
One-Sample T: Values
s= ∑
i =1 n −1
Test of mu = 5 vs not = 5 S
SE Mean =
n
Variable N Mean StDev SE Mean 95% CI T P

Values 9 4.78889 0.24721 0.08240 (4.59887, 4.97891) -2.56 0.034
T-Ca lc = O bserved – Ex pected over SE M ea n

T-Ca lc = X -ba r – Ta rget over Sta nda rd Error
T Ca lc = 4 .7
T-Ca 7 8 8 9 – 5 over .0
0 8 2 4 = - 2 .5
56
N – sa mple size
M ea n – ca lcula te ma thema tic a vera ge
StDev – ca lcula ted individua l sta nda rd devia tion (cla ssica l m ethod)
SE M ea n – ca lcula ted sta nda rd devia tion of the distribution of the m ea ns
Confidence Interva l tha t our popula tion a vera ge w ill fa ll betw een 4 .5 9 8 9 , 4 .9 7 8 9
Shown here is the MINITABTM Session Window output for the 1

1-Sample
Sample tt-test.
test
Evaluating the Results
Since the P-va lue of 0 .0 3 4 is less tha n 0 .0 5 , reject the null

hypothesis.
Ba sed on the sa mples given there is a difference betw een the

a vera ge of the sa mple a nd the desired ta rget.
X Ho
6 . Sta te Pra ctica l Conclusions

The new supplier’s cla im tha t they ca n meet the ta rget
of 5 for the ha rdness is not correct.

300
Manual Calculation of 1- Sample t
Let’s compa re the ma nua l ca lcula tions to w ha t the

com puter ca lcula tes.
– Ca lcula te t-sta tistic from da ta :
X − Target 4 . 79 − 5 . 00
t= = = − 2 . 56
s 0 . 247
n 9
– Determ ine critica l t-va lue from t-ta ble in reference

section.
• W hen the a lterna tive hypothesis ha s a not equa l
sign, it is a tw o-sided test.
• Split the α in ha lf a nd rea d from the 0 .9 7 5 colum n
in the t-ta ble for n -1 (9 - 1 ) degrees of freedom .
Here are the manual calculations of the 1

1-samle
samle tt, verify that MINITABTM is correct.
correct
Manual Calculation of 1- Sample t
degrees of T - Distribution
freedom
.600 .700 .800 .900 .950 .975 .990 .995
1 0.325
0 325 0.727
0 727 1.376
1 376 3.078
3 078 6.314
6 314 12.706
12 706 31.821
31 821 63.657
63 657
2 0.289 0.617 1.061 1.886 2.920 4.303 6.965 9.925
3 0.277 0.584 0.978 1.638 2.353 3.182 4.541 5.841
4 0.271 0.569 0.941 1.533 2.132 2.776 3.747 4.604
5 0.267 0.559 0.920 1.476 2.015 2.571 3.365 4.032
6 0.265 0.553 0.906 1.440 1.943 2.447 3.143 3.707

7 0.263 0.549 0.896 1.415 1.895 2.365 2.998 3.499
8 0.262 0.546 0.889 1.397 1.860 2.306 2.896 3.355
9 0.261 0.543 0.883 1.383 1.833 2.262 2.821 3.250
10 0.260 0.542 0.879 1.372 1.812 2.228 2.764 3.169
μ
-2.56
2 56
-2.306 2.306
α/2=.025 α/2 =.025
0
If the ca lcula ted t-va lue lies a ny w here Critical Regions
in the critica l regions
regions, reject the null hypothesis
hypothesis.
– The da ta supports the a lterna tive hy pothesis tha t the
estima te for the M ea n of the popula tion is not 5 .0 .

301
Confidence Intervals for Two-Sided t-test
Here iis th
H the fformula
l ffor th
the
confidence interval. Notice The formula for a tw o-sided t-test is:
we get the same results as
MINITABTM. s s
X − t α/2, n −1 ≤ μ ≤ X + t α/2,n −1
n n
or
X ± t crit SE
S mean = 4.788
88 ± 2.306
2 306 * .0824
0824
4.5989 to 4.9789
4.5989 X Ho
4.9789
4.7889
1-Sample t Exercise
Ex ercise objective: Utilize what you have learned to

conduct and analyze a one sample t-test using
MIN ITABTM .
1. The last engineering estimation said we would achieve

a product with average results of 32 parts per million
(ppm).
2. W e want to test if we are achieving this performance

level, we want to know if we are on target, with 95%
confidence in our answer. Use data in column “ ppm
VOC”
3. Are we on Target?

302
1-Sample t Exercise: Solution

Since we do not know the
population Standard
Deviation, we will use the 1
sample t-test to determine if
we are at target.

After selecting column C1 and
setting “Hypothesis Mean” to
32.0, click “Graphs” and select
“Histogram of data” to get a
good visualization of the
analysis.
Depending on the test you are

running you may need to
select “Options” to set your
desired confidence Interval
and hypothesis. In this case
the MINITABTM Defaults are
what we want.

303
B
Because we used d th
the
option of “Graphs”, we get a Histogram of ppm VOC
nice visualization of the (with Ho and 95% t-confidence interval for the mean)
data in a Histogram AND a 10
plot of the null hypothesis

relative to the confidence 8
level of the population

6
Mean.
cy
Frequenc
4
Because the null
hypothesis is within the
2
confidence level, you know
we will “fail to reject” the 0 _
X
null hypothesis and accept Ho
the equipment is running at 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
the target of 32.0.
32 0 ppm VOC

In MINITABTM’s Session Window (ctrl – M), you can see the P-value of 0.201. Because it is above
0.05, we “fail to reject” the null hypothesis so we accept the equipment is giving product at a target of
32.0 ppm VOC.

304
Hypothesis Testing Roadmap
N orma l
s
ou
nu
o n ti ta
C Da
Test of Equa l Va ria nce 1 Sa mple Va ria nce 1 Sa mple t-test
2 Sa mple T O ne W a y AN O VA 2 Sa mple T O ne W a y AN O VA
2 Sample t-test
Notice the
difference in the A 2-sample t-test is used to compare two Means.
hypothesis for two
two- Stat > Basic Statistics > 2-Sample t
tailed vs. one-tailed MIN ITABTM performs an independent two-sample t-test and generates a
test. This confidence interval.
terminology is only
used to know which Use 2-Sample t to perform a Hypothesis Test and compute a confidence
column to look interval of the difference between two population Means when the
down in the t-table. population Standard Deviations, σ’s, are unknown.
Two tailed test:

– H0 : μ1 = μ2 If p-va lue > 0 .0 5 fa il to reject
Ho
– Ha: μ1 ≠ μ2 If p-va lue < 0 .0 5 reject H o
One tailed test:

– H0 : μ1 = μ2
– Ha: μ1 > or < μ2
μ1 μ2

305
Sample Size
In MINITABTM
select “Stat>Power To determine proper sa mple size in M IN ITABTM :
and Sample
Size>2-Sample t”.
Follow the same
steps that were
taken for 1-sample
t.
Three fields m ust be filled
in a nd one left bla nk .
As you can see we

used the same Pow er a nd Sa m ple Size
command here just
2 -Sa m ple t Test
as in the 1-sample t.
Do you think the Testing M ea n 1 = M ea n 2 (versus not = )
results are Ca lcula ting pow er for M ea n 1 = M ea n 2 + difference
different?
Alpha = 0 .0 5 Assum ed Sta nda rd Devia tion = 1
Correct, the results Sa m ple
are different.
10 0 .9 1 .5 3 3 6 9
The va rious sa mple
15 0 .9 1 .2 2 6 4 4
sizes show how
20 0 .9 1 .0 5 1 9 9 m uch of a
25 0 .9
9 0 .9
93576 difference ca n be
30 0 .9 0 .8 5 1 1 7 detected a ssum ing
35 0 .9 0 .7 8 6 0 5
the Sta nda rd
Devia tion = 1 .
40 0 .9 0 .7 3 3 9 2
The sa m ple size is for ea ch group.

306
2-Sample t Example
Over the next several

lesson pages we will 1 . Pra ctica l Problem:
explore an example for • W e have conducted a study in order to determine the effectiveness of
a 2-Sample t-test. a new heating system. W e have installed two different types of
Step 1. Read Practical
dampers in home ( Damper = 1 and Damper = 2).
Problem • W e want to compare the BTU.In data from the two types of dampers
to determine if there is any difference between the two products.
Stepp 2. The null
hypothesis is the Mean 2. S
Sta tistica
i i l Problem:
P bl
of BTU.In for damper 1 Ho:μ1 = μ2
is equal to the Mean of Ha:μ1 ≠ μ2
BTU.In for damper 2.
The alternative 3 . 2 -Sa m ple t-test (population standard deviations unknown).
hypothesis is the α = 0.05 β = 0.10
Means are not equal.
Step 3. We will use the
2-Sample t-test since No, not that kind of damper!
the population
Standard Deviations
are unknown.
Now in Step 4.
Open the worksheet 4 . Sa mple Size:
in MINITABTM • Open the MIN ITABTM worksheet: Furnace.MTW
called:
g the data to see how the data is coded.
• Scroll through
“Furnace
Furnace.MTW”
MTW”
• In order to work with the data in the BTU.In column, we will need
How is the data to unstack the data by damper type.
coded?
The only way we

can work with the
data in the BTU.In
i b
is by unstacking
t ki ththe
data by damper
type.

307
2-Sample t Example
We will unstack the data in BTU

BTU.In,
In in “Using
Using subscripts in:”
in: select “Damper”
Damper . Store the unstacked
data in “After the last column in use”. Check the “Name the columns containing the unstacked data”
box. Then click “OK”.
Notice the “unstacked” data for each damper. WE NOW HAVE TWO COLUMNS.

308
2-Sample t Example
Now let us perform a 2 Sample t Example

Example. In MINITABTM select “Stat>Power
Stat>Power and Sample size>2-
size>2
Sample t”.
For the field “Sample Sizes:” enter 40 space 50 because our data set has unequal sample sizes
which is not uncommon. The smallest difference that can be detected is based on the smallest
sample size, so in this case it is: 0.734.
M inita b Session W indow
Pow er a nd Sa mple Size

2 -Sa mple t Test
Testing mea n 1 = mea n 2 (versus not
=)
Ca lcula ting pow er for mea n 1 = mea n
2 + difference
Alpha = 0 .0 5 Assumed sta nda rd
devia tion = 1
Sa mple
40 0 .9 0 .7 3 3 9 1 9
50 0 .9 0 .6 5 4 7 5 2
The sa mple size is for ea ch group.
Example: Follow the Roadmap…

309
Normality Test – Is the Data Normal?
Probability
ProbabilityPlot
Plotof
ofBTU.In_1
BTU.In_1
Normal
Normal
99
99
Mean
Mean 9.908
9.908
StDev
StDev 3.020
3.020
95
95 NN 40
40
AAD
D 0.475
0.475
90
90 P-Value
P-Value 0.228
0.228
80
80
70
70
Percent
Percent
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
55
11
55 10
10 15
15 20
20
BTU.In_1
BTU.In_1
The data is considered Normal since the P-value is greater than 0.05.
Probability
ProbabilityPlot
Plotof
ofBTU.In_2
BTU.In_2
Normal
Normal
99
99
Mean
Mean 10.14
10.14
StDev
StDev 2.767
2.767
95
95 NN 50
50
AAD
D 0.190
0.190
90
90 P-Value
P-Value 0.895
0.895
80
80
70
70
Percent
Percent
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
55
11
22 44 66 88 10
10 12
12 14
14 16
16 18
18
BTU.In_2
BTU.In_2
This is the Normality Plot for damper 2. Is the data Normal? It is Normal, continuing down the
roadmap…

310
Test of Equal Variance (Bartlett’s Test)
In MINITABTM select “Stat>ANOVA>Test Variance . This will allow us to perform a

Stat>ANOVA>Test for Equal Variance”
Bartlett’s Test.
Test for Equal Variances for BTU.In

F-Test
Test Statistic 1.19
1 P-Value 0.558
Damper
Levene'ss Test
Levene
Test Statistic 0.00
Sa mple 1 2
P-Value 0.996
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

95% Bonferroni Confidence Intervals for StDevs
Sa mple 2
1
Damper
5 10 15 20
BTU.In
The P-value of 0.558 indicates that there is no statistically significant difference in variance.
Bartlett’s Test (>2) (f-test 2-samples)

311
2 Sample t-test Equal Variance
Let’s
Let s continue along the roadmap…
roadmap Perform the 2
2-Sample
Sample tt-test;
test; be sure to check the box “Assume
Assume
equal variances”.
Box Plot
Boxplot
Boxplotof
ofBTU.In
BTU.Inby
byDamper
Damper
20
20
15
15
BBTU.In
TU.In
10
10
55
11 22
Damper
Damper
5 . Sta te sta tistica l conclusions: Fa il to reject the null

hypothesis.
pra ctica l conclusions: There is no difference
6 . Sta te p
betw een the da mpers for BTU’s in.
The Box Plots do not show much of a difference between the dampers.

312
Minitab Session Window

Take a moment and review the MINITABTM Session Window
Window.
Ca lcula ted
Avera ge n
(X i − X)
2
s= ∑i =1 n −1
S
SE Mean= (N 1 – 1 ) + (N 2 -1 )
n
Tw
Tw o-
o- Sa
Sammple
ple T-Test
T-Test
((Varia
(Va riances
nces Equa
Equal)l)
)
H
Hoo:: μμ11 == μμ22
N -1 .4 5 0 0 .9 8 0
Num
umber
ber of
of H
Haa:: μμ11≠≠ or
or << or
or >> μμ22
Sa
Samples
mples -0 .3 8
T-Ca lc = O bserved d – Ex pected d divided by s

T-Ca lc = Estim a te for difference – Ta rget for dista nce over s
T-Ca lc = (9 .9 1 – 1 0 .1 4 ) /
T-Ca
T Ca lc = -0
0 .2 3 5 / s
Exercise

conduct
d t andd analyze
l a 2 sample
l tt-test
t t using
i
MIN ITAB .
TM
1. Billy Bobs Pool Care has conducted a study on the

effectiveness of two chlorination distributors in a swimming
pool. (Distributor 1 & Distributor 2).
2. The up and coming Billy Bob Jr., looking to prove himself,

wants a comparison done on the Clor.Lev_Post data from the
two types of distributors in order to determine if there is any
difference between the two products.
3. W ith 95% confidence is there a significant difference

between the two distributors?

313
2 Sample t-test: Solution
1. W hat do we want to know: W ith 95% confidence is there a

significant difference between the two distributors?
2. Statistical Problem:
Ho:μ1 = μ2
Ha:μ1 ≠ μ2
3. 2-Sample t-test (population Standard

Deviations unknown).
α = 0.05 β = 0.10
4. N ow we need to look at the data to

determine the Sample Size but lets see
how the data is formatted first.
• “ Unstack data in” choose Clor.Levl_Post

• “ Using subscripts in” choose Distributor
To unstack the data follow the steps here. This will generate two new columns of data shown on the
next page…

314
By unstacking
the data we how
have the • Clor.Lev_Post_1 =
Clor.Lev data Distributor 1
separated by the
distributor it
came from. Now • Clor.Lev_Post_2 =
let’s
let s move on to Distributor 2
trying to
determine correct
sample size.
Follow path in MINITABTM.

315
We wantt to
W t determine
d t i whath t is
i the
th
smallest difference that can be
detected based on our data.
Fill in the three areas and leave

“Differences:” blank so that
MINITABTM will tell us the differences
we need.
The smallest difference that can be

calculated is based on the smallest sample
size.
In this case:
.7339 rounded to.734

316
Check Normality for Clor

Clor.Lev_Post_1
Lev Post 1
The results show us a P-value of 0.154 so our data is Normal. Recall if the P-value is greater than
.05 then we will consider our data Normal.
Probability Plot of Clor.Lev_Post_1

Normal
99
Mean 16.78
StDev 3.240
95 N 40
AD 0.542
90
P-Value 0.154
80
70
ent
60
Perce 50
0
40
30
20
10
1
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28
Clor.Lev_Post_1
Check Normality for Clor.Lev_Post_2
The results show us a P-value of 0.961 so our data is also Normal.
Probability Plot of Clor.Lev_Post_2

Normal
99
Mean 17.22
StDev 2.980
95 N 50
AD 0.149
90
P-Value 0.961
80
70
Percent
60
50
40
30
20
10
1
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
Clor.Lev_Post_2

317
Test for Equal Variances
MINITABTM Path: “Stat >

ANOVA > Test for Equal
Variances…”
For the “Response:” we select

our stacked column
“Clor.Lev_Post”
For our “Factors:” we select our

stacked column “Distributor”

318
Look at the P
P-value
value of 0.574.
0 574
This tells us that there is no statistically significant difference in the variance in these two data sets.
What does this mean….We can finally run a 2 sample t–test with equal variances?
Test for Equal Variances for Clor.Lev_Post

F-Test
Test Statistic 1.18
1 P-Value 0.574
Distributor
Levene's Test
Test Statistic 0.00
P-Value 0.986
2
2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5

95% Bonferroni Confidence Intervals for StDevs
1
Distributor
10.0 12.5 15.0 17.5 20.0 22.5 25.0 27.5

Clor.Lev_Post
For “Samples:” enter “Clor.Lev_Post” For “Subscripts:” enter “Distributors”

319
Look at the Box Plot and Session Window

Window.
There is NO significant difference between the Distributors.
Boxplot
Boxplotof
ofClor.Lev_Post
Clor.Lev_Postby
byDistributor
Distributor
Hmm, we’re 28
28
26
26
a lot alike! 24
24
22
22
Clor.Lev_Post
Clor.Lev_Post
20
20
18
18
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
11 22
Distributor
Distributor
The Box Plots show VERY little difference between the Distributors,, also not the P-value in the
Session Window– there is no difference between the two Distributors.
N orma l
s
u ou
n tin a
Co Da t
Test of Equa l Va ria nce 1 Sa m ple Va ria nce 1 Sa mple t-test

320
Unequal Variance Example
Open MINITABTM worksheet: “2

2 sample unequal variance data”
data
Don t just sit there….

Don’t there
open it!
Normality Test
Let’s compa re the da ta Probability

ProbabilityPlot
Plotof
ofSample
Sample33
Normal
Normal
in Sa mple one a nd 99.9
99.9 Mean
Mean
4.852
4 852
4.852
Sa mple three columns.

StDev 3.134
99 StDev 3.134
99 N 100
N 100
AD 0.274
95 AD 0.274
95 P-Value 0.658
P-Value 0.658
90
90
80
80
70
Percent
70
Percent
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
5
5
1
1
Probability
ProbabilityPlot
Plotof
ofSample
Sample11
Normal
o a
Normal
0.1
01
0.1
-5
-5 00 55 10
10 15
15
99.9
99.9
Mean 4.853 Sample
Sample33
Mean 4.853
StDev
StDev 1.020
1.020
99
99 NN 100
100
AD 0.374
95
AD 0.374
95 P-Value 0.411
P-Value 0.411
90
90
80
80
70
Percent
70
Percent
60
60
50
50
40
OOur
ur da
datata sets
sets aare
40
30
30
20
20 re
norm a lly distributed.
10
10
5
5 norma lly distributed.
1
1
0.1
0.1
11 22 33 44 55 66 77 88
Sample
Sample11

321
Test for Equal Variance
Stat>ANOVA>Test of Equal Variance

Sta
Standa
ndard
rd Devia
Deviation
tion Test for Equal Variances for Stacked
of
of Sa
Samples
m ples
95% Confidence Intervals for Sigmas Factor Levels
1 2 3 4
WW ee use
use F-Test
F-Test Sta
Statistic
tistic
F-Test Levene's Test
beca
because
use ourour da
datata is
is Test Statistic: 0.106 Test Statistic: 67.073
norm
normaallylly distributed.
distributed. P-Value : 0.000 P-Value : 0.000
P-Va
P-Value
lue isis less
less tha
thann
00.0
.055,, our
our vavaria
riances
nces aarere Boxplots of Raw Data
not
not equa
equal.l.
1
0 5 10 15
Stacked
M
Media
edians
ns of
of Sa
Sam ples
mples
This is the output from MINITABTM. Notice that even though the names of the columns in
MINITABTM were Sample p 1 and Sample
p 3,, MINITABTM used Factor levels 1 and 2 to differentiate
the outcome. We have to interpret the meaning for factor levels properly, it is simply the difference
between the samples labeled one and three in our worksheet.
2-Sample t-test Unequal Variance
UN CHECK
“ Assum e equa
q l
va ria nces” box .
You can see there is very little difference in the 2-Sample t-tests.

322
Boxplot
Boxplot of
of Stacked
Stackedby
by C4
C4
15
15 Indica te
Sa mple
M ea ns
10
10
Stacked
Stacked
55
00
-5
-5
11 22
C4
C4
The Box Plot shows no difference between the Means. The overall box is smaller for sample on the
left,, which is an indication for the difference in variance.
Individual
Individual Value
Value Plot
Plotof
of Stacked
Stackedvs
vs C4
C4
15
15
IIndica
di te
10
10
Sa mple
M ea ns
Stacked
Stacked
55
00
-5
-5
11 22
C4
C4
By looking at this Individual Value Plot you can notice a big spread or variance of the data.

323
Tw
Tw o-Sa
o-Sammple
ple T-Test
T-Test
(Va
(Varia
riances
nces N
Not
ot Equa
Equal)
l)
Ho:
Ho: μμ11 == μμ22 (P-Va
(P-Value
lue >> 00.0
.055))
Ha:: μμ11 ≠≠ or
Ha or << or
or >> μμ22 (P-Va
(P-Value
lue << 00.0
.055))
Stat>Basic Stats> 2 sample T (Deselect Assume Equal Variance)
What does the P-value of 0.996 mean? After conducting a 2-sample t-test there is no significant
difference between the Means.
N orma l
s
u ou
n t in a
Co Da t
Test of Equa l Va ria nce 1 Sa mple Va ria nce 1 Sa m ple t-test
2 Sa mple
p T O ne W a y AN O VA 2 Sa m p
ple T O ne W a y AN O VA

324
Paired t-test
• A Pa ired t-test is used to com pa re the m ea ns of tw o m ea surem ents

from the sa m e sa m ples genera lly used a s a before a nd a fter test.
Stat > Basic Statistics > Paired t
• M IN ITABTM perform s a pa ired t-test. This is a ppropria te for testing the
difference betw een tw o M ea ns w hen the da ta a re pa ired a nd the
pa ired differences follow a norm a l distribution.
• Use th
U the PPa iired
d t com m a nd
d to
t com pute
t a confidence
fid interva
i t l a ndd
perform a Hy pothesis Test of the difference betw een popula tion M ea ns
w hen observa tions a re pa ired. A pa ired t-procedure m a tches responses
tha t a re dependent or rela ted in a pa ir-w ise delta
m a nner. This m a tching a llow s y ou to a ccount for (δ)
va ria bility betw een the pa irs usua lly resulting in
a sm a ller error term , thus increa sing the sensitivity
of the Hypothesis Test or confidence interva l.
– H o : μ δ = μo
– H a : μδ ≠ μo
μbefore μafter
• W here μδ is the popula tion M ea n of the differences a nd μ0 is the
hypothesized M ea n of the differences, typica lly zero.
Example
1 . Pra ctica l Problem :

• W e are interested in changing the sole material for a popular
brand off shoes for
f children.
• In order to account for variation in activity of children wearing the
shoes, each child will wear one shoe of each type of sole material.
The sole material will be randomly assigned to either the left or
right shoe.
Ho: μδ = 0
Ha: μδ ≠ 0
3 . Pa ired t-test (comparing data that must remain paired).
α = 0.05 β = 0.10
JJustt checking
h ki your souls,
l
er…soles!

325
Example (cont.)
4 . Sa mple Size: Now let’s open

• How much of a difference ca n be detected w ith 1 0 “EXH_STAT
sa mples? Delta.MTW” for
analysis. Use
columns labeled
Mat-A and Mat-B.
EXH_STAT DELTA.MTW
Paired t-test
t test Example
In MINITABTM
open
“Stat>Power
Now that’s
and Sample
size>1-
a tee test!
Sample t”.
E t in
Enter i th
the
appropriate
Sample Size, M IN ITABTM Session W indow
Power Value Pow er a nd Sa mple Size
and Standard 1 -Sa mple t Test
Deviation.
Testing mea n = null (versus not = null)
Ca lcula ting pow er for mea n = null +
diff
difference
This mea ns w e w ill only be a ble to devia tion = 1
detect a difference of only 1 .1 5 if the
Sa mple
Sta nda rd Devia tion is equa l to 1 .
10 0 .9 1 .1 5 4 5 6
Given the sample size of 10 we will be able to detect a difference of 1.15. If this was your process you
would need to decide if this was good enough. In this case, is a difference of 1.15 enough to
practically want to change the material used for the soles of the children’s shoes.

326
Paired t-test Example
For the next test we

5 . Sta te Sta tistica l Solution must first calculate
Calc>Calculator
the difference
between the two
columns. In
MINITABTM open
“Calc>Calculator”.
We p placed Mat-B
first in the equation
shown because it
was generally higher
than the values for
Mat-A.
W e need to ca lcula te the difference

betw een the tw o distributions.
distributions W e a re
concerned w ith the delta , is the Ho
outside the t-ca lc (confidence interva l).
P i d t-test
Paired tt tE Example
l
Follow ing the Hy pothesis Test roa dm a p, w e first test the

AB-Delta distribution for norm a lity .
Probability
ProbabilityPlot
Plotof
ofAB
ABDelta
Delta
Normal
Normal
99
99
Mean
Mean 0.41
0.41
StDev
StDev 0.3872
0.3872
95
95 NN 10
10
AAD
D 0.261
0.261
90
90 P-Value
P-Value 0.622
0.622
80
80
70
70
Percent
ercent
60
60
50
50
40
40
P
30
30
20
20
10
10
55
11
-0.5
-0.5 0.0
0.0 0.5
0.5 1.0
1.0 1.5
1.5
AAB
B Delta
Delta

327
1-Sample t
Stat > Basic Statistics > 1-Sample t-test…

Since there is only one
colum n, AB Delta , w e do
not test for equa l
va ria nce per the
Hypothesis Testing
roa dm a p.
Check this da ta for

sta tistica l significa nce in
its depa rture from our
ex pected va lue of zero.
Box Plot
M IN ITABTM Session W indow

Box Plot of AB Delta
O ne-Sa mple T: AB Delta
Test of m u = 0 vs not = 0
Va ria ble N M ea n StDev SE
M ea n
AB Delta 1 0 0 .4 1 0 0 0 0 0 .3 8 7 1 5 5
0 .1 2 2 4 2 9
9 5 % CI T P
(0 .1
1 3 3 0 4 6 , 0 .6
6 8 6 9 5 4 ) 3 .3
3 5 0 .0
009
5 . Sta te Sta tistica l Conclusions: Reject the null hypothesis
6 . Sta te Pra ctica l Conclusions: W e a re 9 5 % confident tha t

there is a difference in w ea r betw een the tw o ma teria ls.
Analyzing the Box Plot we see that the null hypothesis falls outside the confidence interval, so we
reject the null hypothesis. The P-value is also less than 0.05. Given this we are 95% confident that
there is a difference in the wear between the two materials used for the soles of children’s shoes.

328
Paired T-Test
Another w a y to a na lyze this da ta is to use the pa ired t-test

comma nd.
Stat>Basic Statistics>Paired T-test
Click
Click on
on ““Gra
Graphs”
phs” aand
nd select
select
the
the gra
graphs
phs yyou
ou w
w ould
ould lik
likee
to
to genera
generate.
te.
Distinguishing between Two Samples
Boxplot
Boxplotof
ofDifferences
Differences
(with
(withHo
Hoand
and95%
95%t-confidence
intervalfor
forthe
themean)
mean)
The
The P-Va
P-Valuelue of
of from
from
this
thi
this Pa
PPaired
iiredd T-Test
T T t tells
T-Test ttells
ll
us
us the
the difference
difference in in
mmaateria
terials
ls is
is
_
X
X
_ sta
statistica
tistically
lly significa
significant. nt.
Ho
Ho
-1.2
-1.2 -0.9
-0.9 -0.6
-0.6 -0.3
-0.3 0.0
0.0
Differences
Differences
Pa
Paired
ired T-Test
T-Test aand
nd CI:
CI: MMaat-A,
t-A, M
Maat-B
t-B
Pa
Paired
ired TT for
for M
Maat-A
t-A -- M
Maat-B
t-B
N
N MMeaeann StDev
StDev SE
SE M Meaeann
M
Maat-A
t-A 1100 1100.6.6330000 22.4 .4551133 00.7
.7775522
M
Maat-B
t-B 1100 1111.0.0440000 22.5 .5118855 00.7
.7996644
Difference
Difference 1100 -0
-0.4
.41100000000 00.3
.38877115555 00.1.12222442299
9955%
% CI
CI for
for m
mea
eann difference:
difference: ((-0
( 0.6
(-0 .68866995544,, -0
-00.1
.13333004466))
T-Test
T-Test of
of m
meaeann difference
difference == 00 (vs
(vs not
not == 00): ): T-Va
T-Value
lue == -3-3.3
.355 P-Va
P-Value
lue == 00.0
.00099
As you will see the conclusions are the same, but just presented differently.

329
If you analyze this as a 2

2-sample
sample tt–test
test it simply compares the means of Material A to Material B B.
The power of the paired test is that it increases the sensitivity of the test without having to look at a
series of other factors.
The w rong w a y to a na lyze this da ta is to use a 2 -

sa mple t-test:
M IN ITABTM Session W indow
Tw o-sa mple T for M a t-A vs M a t-B

N M ea n StDev SE M ea n
M a t-A 1 0 1 0 .6 3 2 .4 5 0 .7 8
M a t-B 1 0 1 1 .0 4 2 .5 2 0 .8 0
Difference = m u (M a t-A) - m u (M a t-B)
Estim a te for difference: -0 .4 1 0 0 0 0
9 5 % CI for difference: (-2 .7 4 4 9 2 4 , 1 .9 2 4 9 2 4 )
T-Test of difference = 0 (vs not =): T-Va lue = -0 .3 7
P-Va lue = 0 .7 1 6 DF = 1 8
Both use Pooled StDev = 2 .4 8 5 1
Paired t-test Exercise

conduct
d t andd analyze
l a paired
i d tt-test
t t using
i MIN ITABTM .
1. A corrugated packaging company produces material which

has creases to make boxes easier to fold. It is a critical to
quality characteristic to have a predictable Relative Crease
Strength. The quality manager is having her lab test some
samples labeled 1-11. Then those same samples are being
sent to her colleague at another facility who will report their
measurements on those same 1-11 samples.
2. The US quality manager wants to know with 95% confidence

what the average difference is between the lab located in
Texas and the lab located in Mexico when measuring
Relative Crease Strength.
3. Use the data in columns “ Texas” & “ Mexico” to determine the

answer to the quality manager’s question.

330
Paired t-test Exercise: Solution
Because the two labs

ensured to exactly report
measurement results for
the same parts and the
results were put in the
correct corresponding row,
we are able to do a paired
t-test.
The first thing we must do

is create a new column
with the difference
between the two test
results.
Calc>Calculator
We must confirm the

differences (now in a new Summary for TX_MX-Diff
calculated column)) are from A nderson
nderson-Darling
Darling Normality Test
a Normal Distribution. This A -Squared

P-V alue
0.45
0.222
was confirmed with the Mean

StDev
0.22727
0.37971
Anderson-Darling Normality V ariance
Skewness
0.14418
-0.833133
Test by doing a graphical Kurtosis
N
-0.233638
11
summary under Basic Minimum -0.50000
1st Q uartile -0.10000
Statistics. Median 0.40000
3rd Q uartile 0.50000
-0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 Maximum 0.70000
95% C onfidence Interv al for Mean
-0.02782 0.48237
95% C onfidence Interv al for Median
-0.11644 0.50822
95% C onfidence Interv al for StDev
95% Confidence Intervals
0.26531 0.66637
Mean
Median
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6

331
Paired t-test Exercise: Solution
As w e’ve seen before, this 1 Sa m ple T a na lysis is found

w ith:
Stat>Basic Stat>1-sample T
Even though the M ea n difference is 0 .2 3 , w e ha ve a 9 5 % confidence

interva l tha t includes zero so w e k now the 1 -sa mple T test’s null
hypothesis w a s “ fa iled to be rejected” . W e ca nnot conclude the tw o
la bs ha ve a difference in la b results
results.
Histogram
Histogramof
ofTX_MX-Diff
TX_MX-Diff
(with
(withHo
Hoand
and95%
95%t-confidence
intervalfor
forthe
themean)
mean)
55
44
33
Frequency
Frequency
The P-va lue is grea ter tha n 22

0 .0 5 so w e do not ha ve the
9 5 % confidence w e w a nted to 11
confirm a difference in the la b
mea ns. This confidence 00 __
XX
interva
te a l cou
could
d be reduced
educed w ith
t Ho
Ho
more sa mples ta k en nex t time -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75
-0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75
a nd a na lyzed by both la bs. TX_MX-Diff
TX_MX-Diff

332
Continuous Data Roadmap
N orma l
s
ou
nu
o n ti ta
C Da
Test of Equa l Va ria nce 1 Sa mple Va ria nce 1 Sa mple t-test
Notes

333
Determine appropriate sample sizes for testing Means

Conduct various Hypothesis Tests for Means
Properly Analyze Results
You have now completed Analyze Phase – Hypothesis Testing Normal Data Part 1.
Notes

334
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Analyze Phase

Hypothesis Testing Normal Data Part 2”
2.

335
Overview
We are now
moving into W
W elcome
elcome to
to Ana
Analy
lyze
ze
Hypothesis
Testing Normal ““X
X”” Sifting
Sifting
Data Part 2 where
we will address Inferentia
Inferentiall Sta
Statistics
tistics
Calculating
Sample Size, Intro
Intro to
to Hypothesis
Hypothesis Testing
Testing
Variance Testing
and Analyzing Hypothesis
Hypothesis Testing
Testing N
NDD P1
P1
Results. Ca
Calcula
lculate
te Sa
Sample
mple Size
Size
We will examine Hypothesis

Hypothesis Testing
Testing N
NDD P2
P2 Va
Varia
riance
nce Testing
Testing
the meaning of Ana
Analyze
lyze Results
Results
each of these and Hypothesis
Hypothesis Testing
Testing N
NNND
D P1
P1
show you how to
apply
l th
them. Hypothesis
H h i Testing
Hypothesis TTesting
i N
NNND
D P2
P2
W
W ra
rapp Up
Up &
& Action
Action Items
Items
Tests of Variance
Tests of Va ria nce are used for both normal and non-normal
data.
N orma l Da ta
– 1 Sample to a target
– 2 Samples – F-Test
– 3 or More Samples Bartlett’s Test
N on-N orm a l Da ta
– 2 or more samples Levene’s
Levene s Test
The null hypothesis states there is no difference between the

standard deviations or variances.
– Ho: σ1 = σ2 = σ3 …
– Ha = at least on is different

336
1-Sample Variance
A 1 -sa mple va ria nce test is used to compa re a n ex pected

popula tion va ria nce to a ta rget.
Stat > Basic Statistics > Graphical Summary
g va ria nce lies inside the confidence interva l,, fa il

If the ta rget
to reject the null hypothesis.
– H o: σ2 Sa m ple = σ2 Ta rget
– H a : σ2 Sa m ple ≠ σ2 Ta rget
Use the sa mple size ca lcula tions for a 1 sa mple t-test since
they a re ra rely performed w ithout performing a 1 sa mple t-
test a s w ell.
1 Sample t-test Sample Size

• W e a re considering cha nging supplies for a pa rt tha t w e
currently purcha se from a supplier tha t cha rges a
premium for the ha rdening process a nd ha s a la rge
va ria nce in their process.
• The p proposed
p new supplier
pp ha s provided
p us w ith a
sa mple of their product. They ha ve sta ted they ca n
ma inta in a va ria nce of 0 .1 0 .

H o : σ2 = 0 .1 0 or H o: σ = 0 .3 1
H a : σ2 ≠ 0 .1 0 H a : σ ≠ 0 .3 1
3 . 1 -sa mple va ria nce:

α = 0 .0 5 β = 0 .1 0
The Statistical Problem can be stated two ways:

The null hypothesis: The variance is equal to 0
0.10
10 and the alternative hypothesis: The variance is
not equal to 0.10
OR
The null hypothesis: The Standard Deviation is equal to 0.31 and the alternative hypothesis: The
Standard Deviation is not equal to 0.31

337
1-Sample Variance
4 . Sa mple Size:
• O pen the M IN ITABTM w ork sheet: Ex h_Sta t.M TW
• This is the sa me file used for the 1 Sa mple t ex a mple.
– W e w ill a ssume the sa mple size is a dequa te.
Stat > Basic Statistics > Graphical Summary
Take time and notice the

Standard Deviation of 0.31 Reca ll the ta rget Sta nda rd Devia tion is 0 .3 1 .
falls within 95% confidence
interval. Based off this data Summary
Summaryfor
forValues
Values
the statistical solution is “fail to AAnderson-Darling
nderson-D arling NNormality
AA-Squared
-S quared
ormality Test
0.33
Test
0.33
reject the null”
null . PP-Value
-V
V alue
l 00.442
0.442
442
MMean
ean 4.7889
4.7889
StD ev
StDev 0.2472
0.2472
What does this mean from a VVariance
ariance
Skew ness
Skewness
0.0611
0.0611
-0.02863
-0.02863
practical stand point? They Kurtosis
Kurtosis
NN
-1.24215
-1.24215
99
can maintain a variance of MMinimum

inimum
1st
4.4000
4.4000
1stQQuartile
uartile 4.6000
4.6000
0.10 that is valid. MMedian
edian
3rd
4.7000
4.7000
3rdQQuartile
uartile 5.0500
5.0500
4.4
4.4 4.6
4.6 4.8
4.8 5.0
5.0 MMaximum
aximum 5.1000
5.1000
Typically, shifting a Mean is 95%

95%CConfidence
onfidence Interv
4.5989
al for
Interval
4.9789
forMMean
ean
4.5989 4.9789
easier
i tto accomplish
li h iin a 95%
95%CConfidence
onfidence Interv al for
Interval forMMedian
edian
4.6000 5.0772
process than reducing 95%
95%Confidence
ConfidenceIntervals
Intervals
95%
4.6000
95%CConfidence
onfidence Interv
5.0772
al for
Interval forSStDev
tD ev
variance. The new supplier Mean

Mean
0.1670
0.1670 0.4736
0.4736
would be worth continuing the Median

Median
relationship to see if they can 4.6
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.8
4.9
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.1
5.1
increase the Mean slightly

while maintaining the reduced
variance.

338
Test of Variance Example

W e want to determine the effect of two different storage methods on
the rotting of potatoes. You study conditions conducive to potato rot
by injecting potatoes with bacteria that cause rotting and subjecting
them to different temperature and oxygen regimes. W e can test the
data to determine if there is a difference in the Standard Deviation of
the rot time between the two different methods.
2 . Sta tistica l Problem :

Ho: σ1 = σ2
Ha: σ1 ≠ σ2
3 . Equa l va ria nce test (F-test since there are only 2 factors.)
The Statistical problem is:

The null hypothesis: The Standard Deviation of the first method is equal to the Standard Deviation of
the second method
method.
The alternative hypothesis: The Standard Deviation of the first method is not equal to the Standard
Deviation of the second method.
These hypotheses can also be stated in terms of variance.
Now open the

data set 4 . Sa m ple Size:
“EXH_AOV.MT α = 0 .0 5 β = 0 .1 0
W”.
Stat > Power and Sample Size > One-Way ANOVA…
Follow along in
MINITABTM. EXH_AOV.MTW

O ne-w a y AN O VA
Alpha = 0 .0 5 Assum ed sta nda rd devia tion
= 1 N umber of Levels = 2
Sa mple M a x im um
Size Pow er SS M ea ns Difference
50 0 .9 0 .2 1 4 3 5 0 0 .6 5 4 7 5 2
The sa mple size is for ea ch level.

339
Normality Test – Follow the Roadmap
Ch k ffor N
Check Normality.
lit
5 . Sta tistica l Solution:
Stat>Basic Statistics>Normality Test
According to the
graph we have Ho: Da ta is norm a l
Normal data. Ha : Da ta is N O T norm a l Stat>Basic Stats> Normality Test
(Use Anderson Darling)
Probability
ProbabilityPlot
Plotof
ofRot
Rot11
Normal
Normal
99.9
99.9
Mean
Mean 4.871
4.871
StDev
StDev 0.9670
0.9670
99
99 NN 100
100
AAD
D 0.306
0.306
95
95 P-Value 0.559
P-Value 0.559
90
90
80
80
70
Percent
70
Percent
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
55
11
0.1
0 1
0.1
22 33 44 55 66 77 88
Rot
Rot11

340
Test of Equal Variance
Now conduct the test for

equal variance. Stat>ANOVA>Test for Equal Variance
What is the statistical solution? Fail to reject.
Test
Testfor
forEqual
EqualVariances
Variancesfor
forRot
Rot11
F-Test
F-Test
Test
TestStatistic
Statistic 0.74
0 74
0.74
11 P-Value
P-Value 0.298
0.298
Factors
Lev ene's Test

Factors
Levene's Test
Test
TestStatistic
Statistic 0.53
0.53
P-Value
P-Value 0.469
0.469
22
Use
Use F-Test
F-Test for
for 22 sa mmples
sa0.7 ples0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4
0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4
norm
normaally
lly distributed
distributed da data
ta.. 95%
95%Bonferroni
BonferroniConfidence
ConfidenceIntervals
Intervalsfor
forStDevs
StDevs
P-Va
P-Value
lue >>00.0
.055 (.2
((.29988))
Assum
Assume e Equa
Equall Va
Va1 ria
riance
nce 1
Factors
Factors
22
22 33 44 55 66 77
Rot
Rot11
6 . Pra ctica l Solution:

The difference betw een the Sta nda rd Devia tions from the tw o
sa mples is not significa nt.

341
Normality Test
Perform another test using the column Rot.
Probability
Probability Plot
Plot of
of Rot
Rot
Normal
Normal
99
99
Mean
Mean 13.78
13.78
StDev
StDev 7.712
7.712
95
95 NN 18
18
AADD 0.285
0.285
90
90 P-Value
P-Value 0.586
0.586
80
80
70
70
Percent
Percent
60
60
50
50
40
40 The
The P-value
P-value is
is >> 0.05
0.05
30
30 We
We can
can assume
assume ourour
20
20 data
data is
is Normally
normally
10
10 Distributed.
distributed.
55
11
-5
-5 00 55 10
10 15
15 20
20 25
25 30
30 35
35
Rot
Rot
Test for Equal Variance (Normal Data)
Test for equa l va ria nce using Temp a s fa ctor.

342
Test of Equal Variance
Test
Testfor
forEqual
EqualVariances
Variancesfor
forRot
Rot
F-Test
F-Test
Test
TestStatistic
Statistic 0.68
0.68
10
10 P-Value
P-Value 0.598
0.598
Lev ene's Test
Levene's Test
Temp
Tem p
Test
TestStatistic
Statistic 0.05
0.05
P-Value
P-Value 0.824
0.824
16
16
22 44 66 88 10
10 12
12
95%
95%Bonferroni
ConfidenceIntervals
Intervalsfor
forStDevs
StDevs Ho:
Ho: σ
σ11 == σσ22
Ha
Ha:: σ
σ11≠≠ σ
σ22
10
10
P-Va
P-Value
lue >> 00.0
.055,, There
There isis no
no
sta
statistica
tistically
lly significa
significant nt difference.
difference.
Temp
Tem p
16
16
00 55 10
10 15
15 20
20 25
25
Rot
Rot
You can see there is no statistical difference for variance in Rot based on temperature as a factor.
Since the data is Normally Distributed and we have 2 samples, use F-Test statistic.
Evaluating the Results
Use
Use F-
F- Test
Test for
for 22
sa
samples
mples ofof N
N orma
ormally lly
Distributed
Distributed da
datata..

343
Continuous Data - Normal
Another method for testing for equal variance will allow more than one factor. The Labels are the
factors. The data is the Output.
Test For Equal Variances
Stat>ANOVA>Test for Equal Variance
This time we have Rot as the response and Temp and Oxygen as the factors.

344
Test For Equal Variances Graphical Analysis
This graph
Thi h shows
h a ttestt off
equal variance which Test
Testfor
forEqual
EqualVariances
Variancesfor
forRot
Rot
displays Bonferroni 95% Temp
Temp Oxygen
Oxygen
confidence for the response Bartlett's
Bartlett'sTest
Test
Standard Deviation at each 22 Test
TestStatistic
Statistic 2.71
2.71
P-Value
P-Value 0.744
0.744
level. As you will see the 10 66 Lev ene's Test
Levene's Test
10
Bartlett’s and Levene’s test Test
TestStatistic
Statistic 0.37
0.37
P-Value
P-Value 0.858
0.858
are displayed in the same 10
10
Session Window. The

asymmetry of the intervals 22
is due to the Skewness of
16
16 66
the chi-square distribution.
10
10
For the potato rot example,
you fail to reject the null 00 20
20 40
40 60
60 80
80 100
100 120120 140
140
95% Bonferroni
onferroniConfidence
ConfidenceIntervals
Intervalsfor
forStDevs
hypothesis of the variances 95%B StDevs
being equal.
P-va lue > 0 .0 5 show s insignifica nt
difference betw een va ria nce
Test For Equal Variances Statistical Analysis
Test for Equal Variances: Rot versus Temp, Oxygen
95% Bonferroni confidence intervals for standard deviations
Temp Oxygen N Lower StDev `Upper

10 2 3 2.26029 5.29150 81.890
10 6 3 1.28146 3.00000 46.427
10 10 3 2.80104 6.55744 101.481
16 2 3 1.54013 3.60555 55.799
16 6 3 1.50012 3.51188 54.349
16 10 3 3.55677 8.32666 128.862
Use this if
Bartlett s Test (normal distribution)
Bartlett's
da ta is N orma l
Test statistic = 2.71, p-value = 0.744
a nd for Fa ctors < 2
Levene's Test (any continuous distribution) Use this if

Test statistic = 0.37, p-value = 0.858 da ta is N on-norma l
And for fa ctors > 2
Does the Session Window have the same P-values as the Graphical Analysis?

345
Tests for Variance Exercise
Ex ercise objective: Utilize what you have learned to conduct

and analyze a test for equal variance using MIN ITABTM .
1. The quality manager was challenged by the plant director as to why

the VOC levels in the product varied so much. After using a Process
Map, some potential sources of variation were identified. These
sources included operating shifts and raw material supplier. Of
course, the q
qualityy manager
g has already y clarified the Gage
g R&R
results were less than 17% study variation so the gage was
acceptable.
2. The quality manager decided to investigate the effect of the raw

material supplier. He wants to see if the variation of the product
quality is different when using supplier A than supplier B. He wants
to be 95% confident the variances are similar when using the two
suppliers.
3. Use data ppm VOC and RM Supplier to determine if there is a

difference between suppliers.
Tests for Variance Exercise: Solution
First we want to do a graphical summary of the two samples from the two suppliers.

346
I “Variables:”
In “V i bl ” enter
t ‘‘ppm
VOC’
In “By variables:” enter ‘RM

Supplier’
We want to see if the 2

samples are from Normal
populations.
l ti
The P-value is greater than 0.05 for both Anderson-Darling Normality Tests so we conclude the
samples are from Normally Distributed populations because we “failed to reject” the null hypothesis
that the data sets are from Normal Distributions.
Summary for ppm VOC Summary for ppm VOC

RM Supplier = A RM Supplier = B
A nderson-Darling N ormality Test A nderson-Darling N ormality Test
A -S quared 0.33 A -S quared 0.49
P -V alue 0.465 P -V alue 0.175
M ean 37.583 M ean 30.500

S tDev 7.090 S tD ev 6.571
V ariance 50.265 V ariance 43.182
S kew ness 0.261735 S kew ness -0.555911
Kurtosis -0.091503 Kurtosis -0.988688
N 12 N 12
M inimum 25.000 M inimum 19.000

1st Q uartile 33.250 1st Q uartile 25.000
M edian 35.500 M edian 31.500
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 3rd Q uartile 42.000 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 3rd Q uartile 37.000
M aximum 50.000 M aximum 38.000
95% C onfidence Interv al for M ean 95% C onfidence Interv al for M ean
33.079 42.088 26.325 34.675
95% C onfidence Interv al for M edian 95% C onfidence Interv al for M edian
33.263 42.000 25.000 37.000
95% Confidence Intervals 95% Confidence Intervals
95% C onfidence Interv al for S tD ev 95% C onfidence Interv al for S tDev
Mean 5.022 12.038 Mean 4.655 11.157
Median Median
32 34 36 38 40 42 25.0 27.5 30.0 32.5 35.0 37.5
Are both Da ta Sets a re N orma l?

347
Continue to
determine if
they are of
equal variance.
For “Response:”
p
enter ‘ppm VOC’
For “Factors:” enter

‘RM Supplier’
Note MINITABTM
defaults to 95%
confidence
co de ce interval
te a
which is exactly the
level we want to test
for this problem.

348
Because the 2 populations

were considered to be Test for Equal Variances for ppm VOC
Normally Distributed, the F- F-Test
test is used to evaluate Test Statistic 1.16
A P-Value 0.806
whether the variances
RM Supplier
Lev ene's Test
(Standard Deviation Test Statistic 0.02

P-Value 0.890
squared) are equal. B
4 6 8 10 12 14
The P-value of the F-test 95% Bonferroni Confidence Intervals for StDevs
was greater than 0.05 so we

“fail to reject” the null
hypothesis. A
RM Supplier
So once again in English: B
The variances are equal

between
bet ee the
t e results
esu ts from
o tthe
e 20 25 30 35
ppm VOC
40 45 50
two suppliers on our

product’s ppm VOC level.
N orma l
u s
uo
n tin a
Co D a t
Test of Equa l Va ria nce 1 Sa mple Va ria nce 1 Sa m ple t-test
2 Sa mple T O ne W a y AN O VA 2 Sa m ple T O ne W a y AN O VA

349
Purpose of ANOVA
Ana llysis
A i off Va
V ria
i nce (AN O VA) is
i used
d to
t investiga
i ti tet a ndd
m odel the rela tionship betw een a response va ria ble a nd
one or m ore independent va ria bles.
Ana lysis of Va ria nce ex tends the tw o sa m ple t-test for

testing the equa lity of tw o popula tion M ea ns to a more
genera l nullll hypothesis
h th i off com pa ringi the
th equa lity
lit off more
tha n tw o M ea ns, versus them not a ll being equa l.
– The cla ssifica tion va ria ble, or fa ctor, usua lly ha s three
or m ore levels (If there a re only tw o levels, a t-test
ca n be used).
– Allow s you to ex a mine differences a mong m ea ns
using multiple com pa risons.
– The AN O VA test sta tistic is:
Avg SS between S2 between
= 2
Avg
g SS within S within
What do we want to know?
Is the between group variation large enough to be distinguished from the within group variation?
delta X (Betw een Group Va ria tion)
(δ)
T
Tota l (O vera ll) Va
V ria
i tion
i
W ithin Group Va ria tion

(level of supplier 1 )
X
X
X X
X
X X X
μ1 μ2

350
Calculating ANOVA
Take a moment to review the formulas for an ANOVA

ANOVA.
W here:
G - the number of groups (levels in the study )
x ij = the individua l in the jth group
n j = the number of individua ls in the jth group or level
X = the gra nd M ea n
X j = the M ea n of the jth group or level
Tota l (O vera ll) V a ria tion
delta
(δ) W ithin Group Va ria tion
(Betw een Group Va ria tion)
Between Group Variation Within Group Variation Total Variation

g g nj g nj
∑j=1
nj (Xj − X ) 2 ∑ ∑ (X ij − X)2 ∑ ∑ (X
j=1 i =1
ij − X )2
j =1 i =1
Calculating ANOVA
The a lpha risk increa ses a s the number of M ea ns

i
increa ses w ith a pa ir-w
i i t-test
ise t t t scheme.
h The
Th formula
f l for
f
testing m ore tha n one pa ir of M ea ns using a t-test is:
1 − (1 − α )
k
where k = number of pairs of means

so, for 7 pairs of means and an α = 0.05 :
1 - (1 - 0.05) = 0.30
7
or 30% alpha risk
The reason we don’t use a t-test to evaluate series of Means is because the alpha risk increases as the
number of Means increases. If we had 7 pairs of Means and an alpha of 0.05 our actual alpha risk
could be as high as 30%. Notice we did not say it was 30%, only that it could be as high as 30% which
is quite unacceptable.

351
Three Samples
We have three potential suppliers that claim to have equal levels of quality
quality. Supplier B provides a
considerably lower purchase price than either of the other two vendors. We would like to choose the
lowest cost supplier but we must ensure that we do not effect the quality of our raw material.
File>Open Worksheet > ANOVA.MTW
Supplier A Supplier B Supplier C

3.16 4.24 4.58
4.35 3.87 4.00
3.46 3.87 4.24
3.74 4.12 3.87
3.61 3.74 3.46
W
W ee w
w ould
ould lik
likee test
test the
the da
data
ta to
to determ
determine
ine w
w hether
hether
there is a difference betw een the three suppliers.
there is a difference betw een the three suppliers.
Follow the Roadmap…Test for Normality
Compare P-values. All three suppliers sa mples

Probability Plot of Supplier A
Normal a re norm a lly distributed.
99
Mean 3.664
95
StDev
N
0.4401
5 Supplier A P-Value 0.568
90
AD
P-Value
0.246
0.568
Supplier B P-Value 0.385
80 Supplier C P-Value 0.910
70
Percent
60
50
40
30 Probability Plot of Supplier B
20 Normal
99
10 Mean 3.968
5 StDev 0.2051
95 N 5
AD 0.314
1
90 Probability
P-Value 0.385 Plot of Supplier C
25
2.5 30
3.0 80 35
3.5 40
4.0 45
4.5 Normal
70
Supplier A 99
Mean 4.03
Percent
60
StDev 0.4177
50
95 N 5
40
AD 0.148
30 90
P-Value 0.910
20
80
10 70
Percent
60
5
50
40
1 30
3.50 3.75 4.00 20 4.25 4.50
Supplier B
10
1
3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
Supplier C

352
Test for Equal Variance…
Before testing for

Equal Variance, you Test for Equa l Va ria nce (m ust sta ck da ta first):
must first stack the
worksheet.
According to the data

there is no significant
Test
Testfor
forEqual
EqualVariances
Variancesfor
forData
difference in the Data
variance of the 3 Test

Bartlett's
Bartlett'sTest
TestStatistic
Statistic
Test
2.11
2.11
suppliers. Supplier
SupplierAA P-Value
P-Value
Lev ene's Test
Levene's
0.348
Test
0.348
Test
TestStatistic
Statistic 0.59
0.59
P-Value
P-Value 0.568
0.568
Suppliers
Suppliers
Supplier
SupplierBB
Supplier
pp CC
Supplier
0.0
0.0 0.2
0.2 0.4
0.4 0.6
0.6 0.8
0.8 1.0
1.0 1.2
1.2 1.4
1.4 1.6
1.6 1.8
1.8
95%
95%Bonferroni
ConfidenceIntervals
Intervalsfor
forStDevs
StDevs
ANOVA in MINITABTM
Follow along in MINITABTM.
Stat>ANOVA>One-Way Unstacked
Enter Sta ck ed Supplier

pp da ta
in Response.
Click on Gra ph, Check Box Plots

353
ANOVA
What does this graph

tell us?
Boxplot of Supplier A, Supplier B, Supplier C
There doesn’t seem 4.6
to be a huge
difference here. 4.4
4.2
4.0
Data
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
Supplier A Supplier B Supplier C
ANOVA Session Window
Looking at the P-value the conclusion is we fail to reject the null hypothesis. According to the data
there is no significant difference between the Means of the 3 suppliers.
N
Norm
ormaall da
data
ta P-va
P-value
lue >>
Stat>ANOVA>One Way
y .0
.055 N
Noo Difference
Difference
Test for Equal Variances: Suppliers vs ID

One-way ANOVA: Suppliers versus ID
Analysis of Variance for Supplier
Source DF SS MS F P
ID 2 0.384 0.192 1.40 0.284
Error 12 1.641 0.137
T t l
Total 14 2
2.025
025
Individual 95% CIs For Mean
Based on Pooled StDev
Level N Mean StDev ----------+---------+---------+------
Supplier 5 3.6640 0.4401 (-----------*-----------)
Supplier 5 3.9680 0.2051 (-----------*-----------)
Supplier 5 4.0300 0.4177 (-----------*-----------)
----------+---------+---------+------
Pooled StDev = 0.3698 3.60 3.90 4.20

354
ANOVA
Before looking up the f critical value you must first know what the degrees of freedom are
are. The purpose
of the ANOVA’s test statistic uses variance between the Means divided by variance within the groups.
Therefore, the degrees of freedom would be 3 suppliers minus 1 for 2 degrees of freedom. The
denominator would be 5 samples minus 1 (for each supplier) multiplied by 3 suppliers, or 12 degrees of
freedom. As you can see the critical F value is 3.89, and since the calculated f of 1.40 not close to the
critical value we fail to reject the null hypothesis.
T t for
Test f Equal
E l Variances:
V i Suppliers
S li vs ID
One-way ANOVA: Suppliers versus ID
Analysis of Variance for Supplier
Source DF SS MS F P
ID 2 0.384 0.192 1.40 0.284
Error 12 1.641 0.137 F-Ca lc F-Critica l
Total 14 2.025
Individual 95% CIs For Mean
D/N 1 2 3 4
Based on Pooled StDev 1 161.40 199.50 215.70 224.60
2 18 51
18.51 19 00
19.00 19 16
19.16 19 25
19.25
L
Level
l N Mean
M StDev
StD ----------+---------+---------+------
3 10.13 9.55 9.28 9.12
Supplier 5 3.6640 0.4401 (-----------*-----------) 4 7.71 6.94 6.59 6.39
5 6.61 5.79 5.41 5.19
Supplier 5 3.9680 0.2051 (-----------*-----------)
6 5.99 5.14 4.76 4.53
Supplier 5 4.0300 0.4177 (-----------*-----------) 7 5.59 4.74 4.35 4.12
8 5.32 4.46 4.07 3.84
----------+---------+---------+------
9 5.12 4.26 3.86 3.63
Pooled StDev = 0.3698 3.60 3.90 4.20 10 4.96 4.10 3.71 3.48
11 4.84 3.98 3.59 3.36
12 4.75 3.89 3.49 3.26
13 4.67 3.81 3.41 3.18
14 4.60 3.74 3.34 3.11
15 4.54 3.68 3.29 3.06
Sample Size
Let’s check on how much difference we can see with a sample of 5.
Will having a
sample of 5 show
a difference?
After crunching
the numbers, a
sample of 5 can
only detect a
difference of 2.56
Standard Pow er a nd Sa m ple Size
Deviations Which
Deviations. O ne-w a y AN O VA
means that the
Alpha = 0 .0 5 Assum ed Sta nda rd Devia tion = 1
Mean would have N um ber of Levels = 3
to be at least 2.56 Sa m ple M a x im um
Standard Size Pow er SS M ea ns Difference
Deviations until we 5 0 .9 3 .2 9 6 5 9 2 .5 6 7 7 2
could see a
The sa mple size is for ea ch level.
difference. To help
elevate this
problem a larger sample should be used. If there is a larger sample you would be able to have a
more sensitive reading for the Means and the variance.

355
ANOVA Assumptions
1 . O bserva
b tions
ti a re a dequa
d tely
t l described
d ib d by
b the
th m odel.
d l
2 . Errors a re norm a lly a nd independently distributed.
3 . Homogeneity of va ria nce a m ong fa ctor levels.
In one-w a y AN O VA, m odel a dequa cy ca n be check ed

by either of the follow ing:
1 . Check the da ta for N orma lity a t ea ch level a nd for
hom ogeneity of va ria nce a cross a ll levels.
2 . Ex a m ine the residua ls (a residua l is the difference in
w ha t the m odel predicts a nd the true observa tion).
1 . N orma l plot of the residua ls
2 . Residua ls versus fits
3 . Residua ls versus order
If the model is a dequa te, the residua l plots w ill be structureless.
Residual Plots
To generate the residual plots in MINITABTM select “Stat>ANOVA>One-way Unstacked>Graphs”,
then select “Individual value plot” and check all three types of plots.
Stat>ANOVA>One-Way Unstacked>Graphs

356
Histogram of Residuals
Histogram
Histogramof
ofthe
theResiduals
Residuals
(responses
(responsesare
areSupplier
SupplierA,
A,Supplier
SupplierB,
B,Supplier
SupplierC)
C)
55
44
FFrequency
requency
33
22
11
00
-0.6
06
-0.6 -0.4
04
-0.4 -0.2
02
-0.2 00.0
0.0
0 0.2
0 2
0.2 0.4
0 4
0.4 0.6
0 6
0.6
Residual
Residual
The Histogra m of residua ls should

show a bell sha ped curve.
Normal Probability Plot of Residuals

The Normality plot of the residuals should follow a straight line on the probability plot. (Does a
pencil cover all the dots?)
N orm a lity plot of the residua ls should follow a stra ight line.
Results of our ex a m ple look good.
The norm a lity a ssum ption is sa tisfied.
Normal
NormalProbability
ProbabilityPlot
Plotof
ofthe
theResiduals
Residuals
(responses
(responsesare
areSupplier
SupplierA,
A,Supplier
SupplierB,
B,Supplier
SupplierC)
C)
99
99
95
95
90
90
80
80
70
70
Percent
Percent
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
55
11
-1.0
-1.0 -0.5
-0.5 0.0
0.0 0.5
0.5 1.0
1.0
Residual
Residual

357
2-Sample t Example
Now let us perform a 2 Sample t Example

Example. In MINITABTM select “Stat>Power
Stat>Power and Sample size>2-
size>2
Sample t”.
For the field “Sample Sizes:” enter 40 space 50 because our data set has unequal sample sizes
which is not uncommon. The smallest difference that can be detected is based on the smallest
sample size, so in this case it is: 0.734.

2 -Sa mple t Test
Testing mea n 1 = mea n 2 (versus not
=)
Ca lcula ting pow er for mea n 1 = mea n
2 + difference
devia tion = 1
Sa mple
40 0 .9 0 .7 3 3 9 1 9
50 0 .9 0 .6 5 4 7 5 2
Example: Follow the Roadmap…

358
Residuals versus Fitted Values
The plot of Residua ls Versus the Fitted Va lues ex a m ines consta nt

va ria nce.
The plot should be structureless w ith no outliers present.
O ur ex a m ple does not indica te a problem.
Residuals
ResidualsVersus
Versusthe
theFitted
FittedValues
Values
((responses
(responsesare
areSupplier
SSupplier
li A,AA,Supplier
SSupplier
li B,BB,Supplier
SSupplier
li C) C)
0.75
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.25
Residual
Residual
0.00
0.00
-0.25
-0.25
-0.50
-0.50
3.65
3.65 3.70
3.70 3.75
3.75 3.80
3.80 3.85
3.85 3.90
3.90 3.95
3.95 4.00
4.00 4.05
4.05
Fitted
FittedValue
Value
ANOVA Exercise

conduct and analyze a one way AN OVA using
MIN ITABTM .
1. The quality manager was challenged by the plant director as

to why the VOC levels in the product varied so much. The
quality manager now wants to find if the product quality is
different because of how the shifts work with the product.
2. The quality manager wants to know if the average is different

for the ppm VOC of the product among the production shifts.
3. Use Data in columns “ ppm VOC” and “ Shift” to determine

the answer for the quality manager at a 95% confidence
level.

359
ANOVA Exercise: Solution

First we need to do a graphical summary of the samples from the 3 shifts
shifts.
Stat>Basic Stat>Graphical Summary
We want to see if the

3 samples are from
Normal populations.
In “Variables:” enter
‘ppm VOC’
In “By Variables:”
e te ‘Shift’
enter S t

360
The P-value is greater than 0.05 Summary

Summaryfor
forppm
ppmVOC
VOC
Shift
Shift==11
P-Value 0.446
for both Anderson-Darling A nderson-Darling N ormality Test

Anderson-Darling Normality Test
A -Squared
A-Squared
P -V alue
0.32
0.32
0.446
N ormality Tests so we conclude

P-Value 0.446
M ean 39.500
Mean 39.500
S tDev 6.761
StDev 6.761
V ariance 45.714
the samples are from normally

Variance 45.714
S kew ness 0.58976
Skewness 0.58976
Kurtosis -1.13911
Kurtosis -1.13911
N 8
N 8
distributed populations because M inimum

Minimum
1st Q uartile
1st Quartile
M edian
Median
32.000
32.000
33.500
33.500
38.000
38.000
we “ failed to reject” the null

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 3rd Q uartile 46.500
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 3rd Quartile 46.500
M aximum 50.000
Maximum 50.000
95% C onfidence Interv al for M ean
95% Confidence Interval for Mean
hypothesis that the data sets are

33.847 45.153
33.847 45.153
32.936 48.129
95% Confidence Intervals 32.936 48.129
from N ormal distributions.

95% Confidence Intervals 95% C onfidence Interv al for S tD ev
95% Confidence Interval for StDev
Mean 4.470 13.761
Mean 4.470 13.761
Median
Median
35 40 45 50
35 40 45 50
Summary Summary
Summaryfor
forppm
ppmVOC P-Value 0.658
Summaryfor
forppm
ppmVOC
VOC P-Value 0.334 VOC
Shift
Shift
Shift==22 Shift==33
A nderson-Darling N ormality Test A nderson-D arling Normality Test
Anderson-Darling Normality Test Anderson-Darling Normality Test
A-Squared 0.37 A-Squared 0.24
P -V alue 0.334 P -V alue 0.658
P-Value 0.334 P-Value 0.658
M ean 34.625 M ean 28.000
Mean 34.625 Mean 28.000
S tD ev 5.041 S tD ev 6.525
StDev 5.041 StDev 6.525
Variance 25.411 Variance 42.571
S kew ness -0.74123 S kew ness 0.06172
Skewness -0.74123 Skewness 0.06172
Kurtosis 1.37039 Kurtosis -1.10012
Kurtosis 1 37039
1.37039 Kurtosis -1
1.10012
10012
N 8 N 8
N 8 N 8
Minimum 25.000 Minimum 19.000
1st Quartile 31.750 1st Quartile 22.000
Median 35.500 Median 28.000
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 3rd Q uartile 37.000 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 3rd Q uartile 32.750
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 3rd Quartile 37.000 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 3rd Quartile 32.750
M aximum 42.000 M aximum 38.000
Maximum 42.000 Maximum 38.000
95% C onfidence Interv al for M ean 95% C onfidence Interv al for M ean
95% Confidence Interval for Mean 95% Confidence Interval for Mean
30.411 38.839 22.545 33.455
30.411 38.839 22.545 33.455
95% C onfidence Interv al for M edian 95% C onfidence Interv al for M edian
95% Confidence Interval for Median 95% Confidence Interval for Median
30.614 37.322 20.871 33.322
95% Confidence Intervals 30.614 37.322 95% Confidence Intervals 20.871 33.322
95% Confidence Intervals 95% C onfidence Interv al for S tDev 95% Confidence Intervals 95% C onfidence Interv al for S tDev
95% Confidence Interval for StDev 95% Confidence Interval for StDev
Mean 3.333 10.260 Mean 4.314 13.279
Mean 3.333 10.260 Mean 4.314 13.279
Median Median
Median Median
30 32 34 36 38 40 20.0 22.5 25.0 27.5 30.0 32.5 35.0

30 32 34 36 38 40 20.0 22.5 25.0 27.5 30.0 32.5 35.0
First w e need to determine if

our da ta ha s equa l va ria nces.
Stat > ANOVA > Test for Equal Variances…
N ow w e need to test the

va ria nces.
For “ Response:” enter ‘ppm VO C’
For “ Fa ctors:” enter ‘ Shift’

361
The P-va lue of the F-test w a s grea ter tha n 0 .0 5 so w e

“ fa il to reject” the null hypothesis.
Test
Testfor
forEqual
EqualVariances
Variancesfor
forppm
ppmVOC
VOC
Bartlett's
Bartlett'sTest
Test
Test
TestStatistic
Statistic 0.63
0.63
11 P-Value
P-Value 0.729
0.729
Lev ene's Test
Levene's Test
Test
TestStatistic
Statistic 0.85
0.85
P-Value
P-Value 0.440
0.440
Shift
Shift
22
33
22 44 66 88 10
10 12
12 14
14 16
16 18
18
95%
95%Bonferroni
ConfidenceIntervals
Intervalsfor
forStDevs
StDevs
Are the va ria nces a re equa l…Yes!
W e need to use the One-W ay AN OVA to

determine if the means are equal of
product quality when being produced by
the 3 shifts. Again, we want to put 95.0
for the confidence level.
Stat > ANOVA > One-Way…
For “ Response:” enter ‘ppm VOC’
For “ Factor:” enter ‘Shift’
Also be sure to click “ Graphs” to select “ Four

in one” under residual plots.
Also, remember to click “ Assume equal

variances because we determined the
variances”
variances were equal between the 2 samples.

362

We must look at the residual plots to be sure our ANOVA analysis is valid
valid.
Since our residuals look Normally Distributed and randomly patterned, we will assume our analysis is
correct.
Residual Plots for ppm VOC

Normal Probability Plot Residuals Versus the Fitted Values
99
N 24 10
AD 0.255
90 P-Value 0.698
5
Residual
Percent
50 0
10 -5
1 -10
-10 0 10 30 35 40
Residual Fitted Value
Histogram of the Residuals Residuals Versus the Order of the Data

4.8 10
3.6 5
Frequency
Residual
2.4 0
1.2 -5
0.0 -10
-10 -5 0 5 10 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Residual Observation Order
Since the P-value of the ANOVA test is less than 0.05, we “reject” the null hypothesis that the Mean
product quality as measured in ppm VOC is the same from all shifts.
We “accept” the alternate hypothesis that the Mean product quality is different from at least one shift.
Don’t miss that

shift!
Since the confidence intervals

of the Means do not overlap
between Shift 1 and Shift 3, we
see one of the shifts is
delivering a product quality
g
with a higher level of pp
ppm
VOC.

363
Be able to conduct Hypothesis Testing of Variances
Understand how to Analyze Hypothesis Testing Results
You have now completed Analyze Phase – Hypothesis Testing Normal Data Part 2.
Notes

364
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Analyze Phase
Hypothesis Testing Non-Normal Data
Part 1

Hypothesis Testing Non
Non-Normal
Normal Data Part 1”
1.

365
Hypothesis Testing Non-Normal Data Part 1
Overview
The core
W elcom
elcomee to
to Ana
Analy ze
lyze
phase are Equal
Variance Tests and ““X
X”” Sifting
Sifting
Tests for Medians.
Inferentia
Inferentiall Sta
Statistics
tistics
We will examine the
meaning of each of Intro
Intro to
to Hypothesis
Hypothesis Testing
Testing
these and show you
Hypothesis Testing
Testing N
NDD P1
P1
Hypothesis
Hypothesis Testing
Testing N
NDD P2
P2
Equal
Equal Variance
Variance Tests
Tests
Hypothesis
Hypothesis Testing
Testing N
NNND
D P1
P1
Tests
Tests for
for Medians
Medians
Hypothesis
Hypothesis Testing
Testing N
NNND
D P2
P2
W
W ra
rapp Up
Up &
& Action
Action Item
Itemss
Non-Normal Hypothesis Tests
At this point we have covered the tests for determining significance for Normal Data. We will continue
to follow the roadmap to complete the test for Non-Normal Data with Continuous Data.
Later in the module we will use another roadmap that was designed for Discrete data.
Recall that Discrete data does not follow a Normal Distribution, but because it is not
Continuous Data, there are a separate set of tests to properly analyze the data.
We can test ffor anything!!

y g

366
1 Sample t
Why do we care if a data set is Normally Distributed?
When it is necessary to make inferences about the true nature of the
population based on random samples drawn from the population.
When the two indices of interest (X-Bar and s) depend on the data
being Normally Distributed.
For problem solving purposes, because we don’t want to make a bad
decision – having Normal Data is so critical that with EVERY statistical
test the first thing we do is check for Normality of the data
test, data.
Recall the four primary causes for Non-normal data:
Skewness – Natural and Artificial Limits
Mixed Distributions - Multiple Modes
Kurtosis
Granularity
We will focus on skewness for the remaining tests for Continuous Data.
s
u ou
n
o n ti ta
C Da N on N orm a l
Test of Equa l Va ria nce M edia n Test
M a nn-W hitney Severa l M edia n Tests
Now we will continue down the Non-Normal side of the roadmap. Notice this slide is primarily for tests
of Medians.

367
Sample Size
Levene’s test of equal variance, used to compare the estimated

population Standard Deviations from two or more samples
with N on-N ormal distributions.
– Ho: σ1 = σ2 = σ3 …
– Ha: At least one is different.
You have already seen this command in the last module, this is simply the application for Non-
Normal data. The question is: are any of the Standard Deviations or variances statistically different?
Follow the Roadmap…
O pen the M IN ITABTM w ork sheet EX H_AO V.M TW
P-Va
P-Value
lue << 00.0
.055 (0
(0.0
.000))
Assum
Assumee da
datata is
is not
not
N
N orma
ormally
lly distributed.
distributed.
Probability Plot of Rot 2

Normal
99.9
Mean 1.023
StDev 1.407
99 N 100
AD 7.448
95 P-Value <0.005
90
80
70
Percent
60
50
40
30
20
10
5
EXH_AOV.MTW 0.1
-5.0 -2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0
Rot 2

368
Test of Equal Variance Non-Normal Distribution
Stat>ANOVA>Test for Equal Variance Use

Use Levene’s
Levene’s Sta Statistics
tistics for
for N
N on-
on-
N
Norm
orma a ll Da
Datata
P-Va
P-Valuelue >>00.0.055 (0
(0.8
.86600)) Assum
Assumee
va
varia
riance
nce isis equa
equal.l.
H
Hoo:: σ1
σ1 == σ2σ2 == σ3σ3 … …
H
Haa:: At
At lea
least st one
one is is different.
different.
Test
Testfor
forEqual
EqualVariances
Variancesfor
forRot
Rot22
F-Test
F-Test
Test
TestStatistic
Statistic 1.75
1.75
11 P-Value
P-Value 0.053
0.053
Factors2
Factors2
Lev ene's Test
Levene's Test
Test
TestStatistic
Statistic 0.03
0.03
P-Value
P-Value 0.860
0.860
22
1.0
1.0 1.2
1.2 1.4
1.4 1.6
1.6 1.8
1.8 2.0
2.0 2.2
2.2
95%
95%Bonferroni
ConfidenceIntervals
Intervalsfor
forStDevs
StDevs
11
Factors2
Factors2
22
00 22 44 66 88 10
10
Rot
Rot22
Next we test for equal variance

variance. In MINITABTM select: “Stat>ANOVA>Test Variance”.
Since the data was not Normal, we need to know that the only correct test statistic is the Levene’s
test and not the F-test. Had there been more than two variances tested, then Bartlett’s and Levene’s
tests would have appeared.
Test of Equal Variance Non-Normal Distribution
W hen testing 2 samples with N ormal distribution

distribution, use f-test:
– To determine whether two N ormal distributions have equal
variance.
W hen testing >2 samples with N ormal distribution, use Bartlett’s test:
– To determine whether multiple N ormal distributions have equal
variance.
i
W hen testing 2 or more samples with N on-N ormal distributions, use

Levene’s test:
– To determine whether two or more distributions have equal
variance.
Our focus for this module when working with N on-N ormal distributions.

369
Hypothesis Test Exercise
Ex ercise objective: To practice solving problem

presented using the appropriate Hypothesis Test.
A credit card company wants to understand the need for

customer service personnel. The company thinks there is
variability impacting the efficiency of its customer service staff.
The credit card company has two types of cardscards. The company
wants to see if there is more variability in one type of customer
card than another. The Black Belt was selected and told to give
with 95% confidence the answer of similar variability between
the two card types.
1. Analyze the problem using the Hypothesis Testing roadmap.

2. Use the columns named CallsperW k1 and CallsperW k2.
3. Having a confidence level of 95% is there a difference in
variance?
Test for Equal Variance Example: Solution
First test to see if the data is Normal or Non-Normal.
Stat>Basic Statistics>Normality Test

370
Since there are two

variables we need to
perform a Normality Test on
CallsperWk1 and
CallsperWk2.
First select the variable

‘CallsperWk1’ and Press
“OK”.
Follow the same steps for

‘CallsperWk2’.
For the Data to be Normal the P-value must be greater than 0.05.
Based off the P-value, the variables being analyzed is Non-normal Data.

371

Since we know the variables are Non-
Non
normal Data, continue to follow the
Roadmap.
The next step is to test Calls/Week for

equal variance.
Before performing a Levene’s Test we

have to stack the columns for
CallsperWk1 and CallsperWk2
because currently the data is in
separate columns.
After stacking the Calls/ W eek

columns the next step in the
Roadmap is performing a
Levene’s Test.
Stat>ANOVA>Test for Equal Variances
As you can see the data illustrates a P-value of 0.247 which is more than 0.05. As a result, there
is no variance between CallperWk1 and CallperWk2.
Therefore with a 95% confidence level we reject the null hypothesis.

372
Nonparametric Tests
A non-parametric test makes no assumptions about Normality.
For a Skewed distribution:

- The appropriate statistic to describe the central tendency is the Median, rather than
the Mean.
- If just one distribution is not Normal, a non-parametric should be used.
Non-parametric Hypothesis Testing works the same way as parametric testing. Evaluate the P-
value in the same manner
~ ~ ~
Target X X1 X2
MINITABTM’s Nonparametrics
1-Sample Sign: performs a one-sample sign test of the Median and calculates the corresponding
point estimate and confidence interval. Use this test as an alternative to one-sample Z and one-
sample t-tests.
1-Sample Wilcoxon: performs a one-sample Wilcoxon signed rank test of the Median and
calculates the corresponding point estimate and confidence interval (more discriminating or efficient
than the sign test)
test). Use this test as a nonparametric alternative to one-sample
one sample Z and one-sample
one sample t- t
tests.
Mann-Whitney: performs a Hypothesis Test of the equality of two population Medians and
calculates the corresponding point estimate and confidence interval. Use this test as a
nonparametric alternative to the two-sample t-test.
Kruskal-Wallis: performs a Hypothesis Test of the equality of population Medians for a one-way
design. This test is more powerful than Mood’s Median (the confidence interval is narrower, on
average)
g ) for analyzing
y g data from many yp
populations,
p , but is less robust to outliers. Use this test as an
alternative to the one-way ANOVA.
Mood’s Median Test: performs a Hypothesis Test of the equality of population Medians in a one-
way design. Test is similar to the Kruskal-Wallis Test. Also referred to as the Median test or sign
scores test. Use as an alternative to the one-way ANOVA.
There are 5 basic nonparametric tests that

MINITABTM calculates. Each one has a
counterpart in normal Hypothesis Testing.

373
1-Sample Sign Test
Here iis a littl

H little trick!
t i k! Dividing
Di idi This test is used when you want to compare the Median of one
the sample size from a t-test distribution to a target value.
estimate by 0.864 should give – Must have at least one column of numeric data. If there is more than
you a large enough sample one column of data, MIN ITABTM performs a one-sample W ilcoxon
regardless of the underlying test separately for each column.
distribution…most of the time. The hypotheses:
– H0 : M = M target
For instance, having a – Ha: M ≠ M target
sample size of 23 using the t- Interpretation of the resulting p-value is the same.
test method, the sample size
would increase by 3. If there
N ote: For the purpose of calculating sample size for a non-
is a Normal Distribution parametric (Median) test use:
(assuming) this number
would increase by 1. n
Truthfully, it is really possible n non-parametric = t test
to decrease
0.864
the sample size depending on the distribution selected for the alternative.
1-Sample Example
1 . Pra ctica l Problem:

O facility
Our f ili requires
i a cycle
l time
i ffrom an iimproved
d process off 63 minutes.
i Thi
This
process supports the customer service division and has become a bottleneck to
completion of order processing. To alleviate the bottleneck the improved process
must perform at least at the expected 63 minutes.
2 . Sta tistica l Problem :

Ho: M = 63
Ha: M ≠ 63
3 . 1 -Sa mple Sign or 1 -Sa mple W ilcox on
O pen the M IN ITABTM da ta file: DISTRIB1 .M TW

Sta t>N on pa ra m etric> 1 sa m ple sign …
Or
Sta t> N on pa ra m etric> 1 sa m ple W ilcox on
4 . Sa m ple Size:
This data set has 500 samples (well in excess of necessary sample size).
The Statistical Problem is: The null hypothesis is that the Median is equal to 63 and the
alternative hypothesis is the Median is not equal to 63.
Open the MINITABTM Data File: “DISTRIB1.MTW”. Next you have a choice of either performing a
1-Sample Sign Test or 1-Sample Wilcoxon Test because both will test the Median against a
target. For this example we will perform a 1-Sample Sign Test.

374
1-Sample Example
Stat>Non parametric> 1 Sample Sign …
For a tw o ta iled test, choose the

not equa l for the a lterna tive
hypothesis.
=
Sign Test for M edia n: Pos Sk ew
Sign test of M edia n = 6 3 .0 0 versus = 6 3 .0 0
N Below Equa l Above P M edia n
Pos Sk ew 5 0 0 37 0 463 0 .0 0 0 0 6 5 .7 0
As you can see the P-value is less than 0.05, so we must reject the null hypothesis which
means we have data that supports the alternative hypothesis that the Median is different than
63. The actual Median of 65.70 is shown in the Session Window. Since the Median is greater
than the target value, it seem the new process is not as good as we may have hoped.
Stat>Non parametric> 1 Sample Wilcoxon …
W ilcox on Signed Ra nk Test: Pos Sk ew

Test of M edia n = 6 3 .0 0 versus M edia n not = 6 3 .0 0
N for W ilcox on Estima ted

N Test Sta tistic P M edia n
Pos Sk ew 5 0 0 500 1 2 4 0 1 5 .0 0 .0 0 0 6 7 .8 3
Perform the same steps as the 1-Sample Sign to use the 1-sample Wilcoxon.

375
1-Sample Example
For a confidence interva l,

select a nd enter desired
confidence
Sign confidence interva l for m edia n

Confidence
Achieved Interva l
Since the ta rget of 6 3 N M edia n Confidence Low er Upper Position
is not w ithin the Pos Sk ew 5 0 0 6 5 .7 0 0 .9 4 5 5 6 5 .3 0 6 6 .5 0 229
confidence interva l, 0 .9 5 0 0 6 5 .2 6 6 6 .5 0 N LI
reject the null 0 .9 5 5 8 6 5 .2 0 6 6 .5 1 228
hypothesis.
For the 1-sample sign test, select a confidence interval level of 95%. As you can see this yields a
result intervals of 65.26 to 66.50. The NLI means a non linear interpolation method was used to
estimate the confidence intervals
intervals. As you can see the confidence interval is very narrow
narrow.
Since the target of 63 is not within the confidence interval, reject the null hypothesis.
Since the ta rget of 6 3 is not

w ithin the confidence
interva l, reject the null
hypothesis.
W ilcox on Signed Ra nk CI: Pos Sk ew

Confidence
Estim a ted Achieved Interva l
N M edia n Confidence Low er Upper
Pos Sk ew 5 0 0 6 7 .8 3 9 5 .0 6 7 .0 1 6 8 .7 0
As you will see the confidence interval is even tighter for the Wilcoxon test. Therefore we reject
the null, the Median is higher than the target of 63. Unfortunately, the Median was higher than
the target which is not the desired direction.

376
Hypothesis Test Exercise

A mining company is falling behind profit targets. The mine

manager wants to determine if his mine is achieving the
target production of 2.1 tons/ day and has some limited data
to analyze. The mine manager asks the Black Belt to say if
the mine is achieving 2.1 tons/ day and the Black Belt says
she will answer with 95% confidence.
1. Analyze the problem using the hypothesis testing roadmap.

2. Use the column Tons hauled.
3 Does the Median equal the target value?
3.
HYPOTESTSTUD.MPJ
1 Sample Example: Solution

According to the Hypothesis
the Mine Manager feels he is
achieving his target of 2.1
tons/day.
H0: M = 2.1 tons/day

Ha: M ≠ 2.1 tons/day
Since we are using one

sample, we have a choice of
choosing either a 1 Sample-
Sign or 1 Sample Wilcoxon.
For this example we will use a
1 Sample-Sign.
Stat>Nonparametrics>1-Sample Sign

377
1 Sample Example: Solution
Sign Test for M edia n: Tons ha uled

Sign test of m edia n = 2 .1 0 0 versus = 2 .1 0 0
N Below Equa l Above P M edia n
Tons ha uled 1 7 14 0 3 0 .0 1 2 7 1 .8 0 0
The results show a P-value of 0.0127 and a Median of 1.800
The Black Belt in this case agrees the Mine Manager is achieving
his target of 2.1 tons/ day
We agree!
Mann-Whitney
Mann Whitney Example
The Mann-W hitney test is used to test if the Medians for 2 samples
are different.
1. Determine if different machines have different Median cycle times.
2. Ho: M 1 = M 2
Ha: M 1 ≠ M 2
3. Mann
Mann-W
W hitney test.
4. There are 200 data points for each machine, well over the
minimum sample necessary.
5 Open the MIN ITABTM data set: N onparametric.mtw

5. onparametric mtw

378
Mann-Whitney Example
Wh llooking
When ki att th
the
5 . Sta tistica l Conclusion
Probability Plot,
Match A yields a less Probability
ProbabilityPlot
Plotof
ofMach
MachAA
Normal
than .05 P-value. 99.9
99.9
Normal
Now look at Graph

Mean
Mean 15.24
15.24
StDev
StDev 5.379
5.379
99
99 NN 200
B? Ok now you have
200
AAD
D 1.550
1.550
95 P-Value
95 P-Value <0.005
<0.005
one graph that is 90
90
80
80 Probability
ProbabilityPlot
Plotof
ofMach
MachBB
Non-normal
Non normal Data and 70
ent
70
Normal
nt
60 Normal
Percen
60
Perce
50
50
the other that is 40
40
30
30
99.9
99.9
Mean
Mean 16.73
16.73
20 StDev 5.284
Normal. The good 20 99 StDev 5.284
99 NN 200
200
10
10 AAD
D 0.630
0.630
news is when
55 95
95 P-Value
P-Value 0.099
0.099
90
90
11
performing a 80
80
70
Percent
70
Percent
0.1 60
Nonparametric Test 0.1
00 10
10 20
20
60
50
50 30
40
40
30 40
40
Mach
MachAA 30
of 2 Samples, only 30
20
20
10
one has to be 10
55
N
Normal.l With ththatt 11
said, now let’s 0.1

0.1
00 55 10 15 20 25 30 35
10 15 20 25 30 35
perform a Mann- Mach
MachBB
Whitney.
Perform the Mann- 6 . Pra ctica l Conclusion: The medians of the machines are
Whitney test. Since different.
zero (the difference Stat>Nonparametric>Mann-Whitney…
between the 2
Medians) is not
contained within the
confidence interval If the sa mples a re the
sa m e, zero w ould be
we reject the null included w ithin the
hypothesis. Also, the confidence interva l.
last line in the
Session Window
Mann-Whitney Test and CI: Mach A, Mach B
where it says … is N Median
significant at 0.0010 Mach A 200 14.841
is the equivalent of a Mach B 200 16.346
P-value for the Mann- Point estimate for ETA1-ETA2 is -1.604
Whitney test. 95.0 Percent CI for ETA1-ETA2 is (-2.635,-0.594)
W = 36509.0
The Practical Test of ETA1 = ETA2 vs ETA1 not = ETA2 is

significant at 0.0019
Conclusion is that
there is a difference
between the Medians
of the two machines.

379
Exercise
Ex ercise objective: To practice solving problem presented

using the appropriate Hypothesis Test.
A credit card company now understands there is no variability

difference in customer calls/ week for the 2 different credit card types.
This means no difference in strategy of deploying the workforces.
However, now the credit card company wants to see if there is a
difference in call volume between the 2 different card types
types. The
company expects no difference since the total sales among the two
credit card types are similar. The Black Belt was selected and told to
evaluate with 95% confidence if the averages were the same. The
Black Belt reminded the credit card company the calls/ day were not
normal distributions so he would have to compare using medians
since medians are used to describe the central tendency of non-
normal populations.

2. Use the columns named CallsperW k1 and CallsperW k2.
3. Is there a difference in call volume between the 2 different card
types?
HYPOTESTSTUD.MPJ
Mann-Whitney Example: Solution
Since w e k now our da ta for Ca llperW k 1 a nd

Ca llperW k 2 a re N on-N orm a l w e ca n proceed Stat>Nonparametrics>Mann-Whitney
to perform ing a M a nn-W hitney Test.
M a nn-W hitney Test a nd CI: Ca llsperW k 1 , Ca llsperW k 2

N M edia n
Ca llsperW k 1 2 2 7 3 9 .0
Ca llsperW k 2 1 0 5 7 7 0 .0
Point estim a te for ETA1 -ETA2 is -2 6 .5
9 5 .0 Percent CI for ETA1 -ETA2 is (-9 1 .9 ,4 3 .0 )
W = 3 6 5 0 9 .0
Test of ETA1 = ETA2 vs ETA1 not = ETA2 is significa nt a t 0 .4 5 8 0

380
Mann-Whitney Example: Solution
As y ou ca n see there is a difference in the M edia n betw een

Ca llsperW k 1 a nd Ca llsperW k 2 .
Therefore, there is a difference in ca ll volum e betw een the

tw o different ca rd types.
M a nn-W hitney Test a nd CI: Ca llsperW k 1 , Ca llsperW k 2

N M edia n
Ca llsperW k 1 2 2 7 3 9 .0
Ca llsperW k 2 1 0 5 7 7 0 .0
Point estima te for ETA1 -ETA2
ETA2 is -2
2 6 .5
5
9 5 .0 Percent CI for ETA1 -ETA2 is (-9 1 .9 ,4 3 .0 )
W = 3 6 5 0 9 .0
Test of ETA1 = ETA2 vs ETA1 not = ETA2 is significa nt a t 0 .4 5 8 0
Mood’s Median Test
The final 2 tests are the Mood’s Median and the Kruskal Wallis.
1. An aluminum company wanted to compare the operation of its

three facilities worldwide. They want to see if there is a difference
in the recoveries among the three locations. A Black Belt was
asked to help management evaluate the recoveries at the locations
with 95% confidence.
2. Ho: M 1 = M 2 = M 3
Ha: at least one is different
3. Use the Mood’s

3 Mood s median test
test.
4. Based on the smallest sample of 13, the test will be able to detect
a difference close to 1.5.
5. Statistical Conclusions: Use columns named Recovery and
Location for analysis.
= = ?
381
Follow the Roadmap…Normality
Instead of using the Anderson

Anderson-Darling
Darling test for Normality
Normality, this time we used the graphical summary
method. It gives a P-value for Normality and allows a view of the data that the Normality test does
not.
Stat>Basic Statistics>Graphical Summary…
Summary
Summaryfor
forRecovery
Recovery
Location
Location==Savannah
Savannah
AAnderson-Darling
ormality Test
Test
AA-Squared
-S quared 0.81
0.81
PP-Value
-V alue 0.032
0.032
MMean
ean 87.660
87.660
SStDev
tD ev 7.944
7.944
VVariance
ariance 63.113
63.113
SSkewness
kew ness -0.15286
-0.15286
Kurtosis
K t i
Kurtosis -1
1.11764
11764
-1.11764
1 11764
N 25
N 25
MMinimum
inimum 75.300
75.300
1st Q uartile 79.000
1st Quartile 79.000
MMedian
edian 87.500
87.500
78 84 90 96 3rd Q uartile 96.550
78 84 90 96 3rd Quartile 96.550
M aximum 99.200
Maximum 99.200
84.381 90.939
84.381 90.939
86.179 90.080
86.179 90.080
9 5 % C onfidence Inter vals 95% C onfidence Interv al for S tD ev
95% Confidence Intervals 95% Confidence Interval for StDev
Mean 6.203 11.052
Mean 6.203 11.052
Median
Median
84.0 85.5 87.0 88.5 90.0 91.5

84.0 85.5 87.0 88.5 90.0 91.5
Notice evidence of outliers in at least 2 of the 3 populations. You could do Box Plot to get a clearer idea
about outliers.
Summary
Summaryfor
forRecovery
Recovery
Location
Location==Bangor
Bangor
AAnderson-Darling
ormality Test
Test
AA-Squared
-S quared 0.72
0.72
PP-Value
-V alue 0.045
0.045
MMean
ean 93.042
93.042
SStDev
tD ev 5.918
5.918
VVariance
ariance 35.017
35.017
SSkewness
kew ness -1.81758
-1.81758
Kurtosis
Kurtosis 4.66838
4.66838
NN 13
13
MMinimum
inimum 76.630
76.630
1st
1stQQuartile
uartile 90.600
90.600
78 84 90 96
M edian
Median
3rd Q uartile
Summary
Summaryfor
94.800
94.800
97.350 forRecovery
Recovery
78 84 90 96 3rd Quartile 97.350
99.700 Location = Ankhar
99.700 Location = Ankhar
M aximum
Maximum
95% C onfidence Interv al for M ean AAnderson-Darling
ormality Test
95% Confidence Interval for Mean Test
89.466 96.617 AA-Squared
-S quared 0.86
89.466 96.617 0.86
95% C onfidence Interv al for M edian PP-Value
-V
PVValue
l 00.022
0.022
0022
022
95% Confidence
C fid Interval
I t l for
f Median
M di
90.637 97.036 MMean
ean 88.302
90.637 97.036 88.302
9 5 % C onfidence Inter vals 95% C onfidence Interv al for S tD ev SStDev
tD ev 6.929
95% Confidence Intervals 95% Confidence Interval for StDev 6.929
4.243 9.768 VVariance
ariance 48.008
48.008
Mean 4.243 9.768
Mean SSkewness
kew ness -0.105610
-0.105610
Median
Kurtosis
Kurtosis 0.182123
0.182123
Median NN 20
20
90 92 94 96 98
90 92 94 96 98 MMinimum
inimum 73.500
73.500
1st Q uartile 85.150
1st Quartile 85.150
MMedian
edian 88.425
88.425
78 84 90 96 3rd Q uartile 89.700
78 84 90 96 3rd Quartile 89.700
M aximum 99.450
Maximum 99.450
85.059 91.545
85.059 91.545
86.735 89.299
86.735 89.299
9 5 % C onfidence Inter vals 95% C onfidence Interv al for S tD ev
95% Confidence Intervals 95% Confidence Interval for StDev
Mean 5 269
5.269 10 120
10.120
Mean 5.269 10.120
Median
Median
85 86 87 88 89 90 91
85 86 87 88 89 90 91

382
Follow the Roadmap…Equal Variance
Test
Testfor
forEqual
EqualVariances
Variancesfor
forRecovery
Recovery
Bartlett's
Bartlett'sTest
Test
Test
TestStatistic
Statistic 1.33
1.33
Ankhar
Ankhar P-Value
P-Value 0.514
0.514
Lev ene's Test
Levene's Test
Test
TestStatistic
Statistic 1.02
1.02
P-Value
P-Value 0.367
0.367
Location
Location
Bangor
Bangor
Savannah
Savannah
33 44 55 66 77 88 99 1010 11 11 1212
95%
95%Bonferroni
ConfidenceIntervals
Intervalsfor
forStDevs
StDevs
Mood’s Median Test
Sta tistica l Solution: Since the P-value of the Mood’s Median test is
less than 0.05, we reject the null hypothesis.
Pra ctica l Solution: Bangor has the highest recovery of all three
facilities.
W e observe the confidence interva ls for
the M edia ns of the 3 popula tion’s. N ote
there is no overla p of the 9 5 %
confidence levels for Ba ngor—so w e
visua lly k now the P-va lue is below 0 .0 5 .
Mood Median Test: Recovery versus Location
Mood median test for Recovery

Chi-Square = 12.11 DF = 2 P = 0.002
Individual 95.0% CIs

Location N<= N> Median Q3-Q1 ---+---------+---------+---------+---
Ankhar 13 7 88.4 4.5 (-----*--)
Bangor 1 12 94.8 6.8 (-------------*------)
Savannah 15 10 87.5 17.6 (----*-------)
---+---------+---------+---------+---
87.0 90.0 93.0 96.0
Overall median = 88.9

383
Kruskal-Wallis Test
Using the same data set
set, analyze using the Kruskal-Wallis test.
test
Kruskal-Wallis Test: Recovery versus

Location
Kruskal-Wallis Test on Recovery
Location N Median Ave Rank Z

Ankhar 20 88.43 27.3 -0.73
Bangor 13 94.80 40.2 2.60
Savannah 25 87.50 25.7 -1.49
Overall 58 29.5
H = 6.86 DF = 2 P = 0.032
H = 6.87 DF = 2 P = 0.032 (adjusted for ties)
This output is the “ lea st friendly ” to interpret. Look for the P-

va lue w hich tells us w e reject the null hypothesis. W e ha ve
the sa me conclusion a s w ith the M ood’s M edia n test.
When comparing the Kruskal-Wallis test to the Mood’s Median test, the Kruskal-Wallis test is better.
In this case the Kruskal-Wallis Test showed the variances were equal and illustrated the same
conclusion.
Exercise

presented
t d using
i ththe appropriate
i t HHypothesis
th i T Test.
t
A manufacturing company making pagers is interested in

evaluating the defect rate of 3 months from one of its
facilities. A customer has said that the defect rate was
surprising lately but didn’t know for sure. A Black Belt was
selected to investigate from the first 3 months of this year.
Sh iis tto reportt back
She b k tto senior
i managementt withith 95%
confidence about any shift(s) in defect rates.

2. Use the columns named ppm defective1, ppm defective2 and
ppm defective3.
3. Are the defect rates equal for 3 months?.
HYPOTESTSTUD MPJ
HYPOTESTSTUD.MPJ

384
Pagers Defect Rate Example: Solution

Let s follow the Roadmap and check
Let’s
to see if the data is Normal.
Instead of performing a Normality

Test, we can find the P-value using
the Graphical Summary in
MINITABTM.
Now let’s take a moment and

compare the 3 variables. Since our
3 variables are less than 0.05 the
data is Non-normal.
Stat>Basic Statistics>Graphical Summary
Before we can perform a Mood’s-

Median Test we must first stack the
columns ppmdefective1,
ppmdefective2 and ppmdefective3.
When comparing the Kruskal-Wallis test to the Mood’s Median test, the Kruskal-Wallis test is better.
In this case the Kruskal-Wallis Test showed the variances were equal and illustrated the same
conclusion.

385
Pagers Defect Rate Example: Solution
The P-value is over

0.05…therefore, we After stacking the columns
accept the null we can perform a Mood’s-
hypothesis.
Median Test.
Stat>Nonparametric>Mood’s Median Test
Unequal Variance
W here do you go in the roadmap if the variance is not equal?

– Unequal variances are usually the result of differences in
p of the distribution.
the shape
• Extreme tails
• Outliers
• Multiple modes
These conditions should be explored through data

demographics.
For Skewed Distributions with comparable Medians it is

unusual for the variances to be different without some
assignable cause impacting the process.

386
Example
This is an example of comparable products.
products To view these graphs open the data set
“Var_Comp.mtw”.
As you can see, Model A is Normal but Model B is not Normal.
Model A and Model B are similar in nature (not exact), but are
manufactured in the same plant.
– Check for N ormality: Var_Comp.mtw
p
Probability Plot of Model A Probability Plot of Model B

Normal Normal
99 99
Mean 10.28 Mean 2.826
StDev 0.7028 StDev 3.088
95 N 10 95 N 10
AD 0.227 AD 0.753
90 90
P-Value 0.747 P-Value 0.033
80 80
70 70
Percent
Percent
60 60
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
5 5
1 1
8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 -5.0 -2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0
Model A Model B
M odel A is N orma l, M odel B is not N orma l.
Now let’s check the variance.
Does Model B have a larger variance than Model A? The Median for Model B is much lower. How
can we capitalize on our knowledge of the process? Let’s look at data demographic to help us
explain the differences between the two processes.
Check for equa l va ria nces using the Levene’s

Levene s test
test.
Test
Testfor
forEqual
EqualVariances
Variancesfor
forData
Data
FF-Test
-Test
Test
TestStatistic
Statistic 0.05
0.05
Model
ModelAA P-Value
P-Value 0.000
0.000
Lev ene's Test
Levene's Test
idvar
var
Test
TestStatistic
Statistic 4.47
4.47
id
P-Value
P-Value 0.049
0.049
Model
ModelBB
00 11 22 33 44 55 66 77
995%
5 % Bonfer roni Confidence
Bonferroni ConfidenceIntervals
Intervalsfor
forStDevs
StDevs
Model
ModelAA
idvar
idvar
Model
ModelBB
00 22 44 66 88 10
10 12
12
Data
Data
The p va lue is just under the lim it of .0 5 . W henever the

result is borderline, a s in this ca se, use y our process
k now ledge to m a k e a judgm ent.

387
Data Demographics
What clues can explain the difference in variances? This example illustrates how Non-normal Data
can have significant informational content as revealed through data demographics. Sometimes this
is all that is needed to draw conclusions.
Let’s look a t da ta demogra phics for clues.

Summary for Model A Summary for Model B
A nderson-D arling Normality Test A nderson-D arling N ormality Test
P -V alue 0.747 P -V alue 0.033
M ean 10.279 M ean 2.8260
S tD ev 0.703 S tD ev 3.0882
S kew ness 0.330968 S kew ness 1.29887
Kurtosis -0.614597 Kurtosis 0.92377
N 10 N 10
3rd Q uartile 10.816 3rd Q uartile 5.5508
9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 M aximum 11.496 0 2 4 6 8 10 M aximum 9.4440
9.776 10.782
0.6169 5.0352
9.767 10.848
0.3465 5.5873
95% C onfidence Interv al for StD ev
9 5 % C onfidence Inter vals
95% C onfidence Interv al for S tD ev
0.483 1.283 9 5 % Confidence Inter vals
2.1242 5.6379
Mean
Mean
Median
Median
9.8 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Dotplot
p of Model A,, Model B
Model A
Model B
-0.0 1.6 3.2 4.8 6.4 8.0 9.6 11.2
Data
Graph> Dotplot> Multiple Y’s, Simple
Black Belt Aptitude Exercise

presented
t d using
i ththe appropriate
i t HHypothesis
th i T Test.
t
• A recent deployment at a client raised the question of which

educational background is best suited to be a successful
Black Belt candidate.
• In order to answer the question, the MBB instructor randomly
p
sampled the results of a Six Sigma
g p
pretest taken by
y now
certified Black Belts at other businesses.
• Undergraduate backgrounds in Science, Liberal Arts,
Business, and Engineering were sampled.
• Management wants to know so they can screen prospective
candidates for educational background.

2. W hat educational background is best suited for a potential
Black Belt?
HYPOTESTSTUD.MPJ

388
Black Belt Aptitude Exercise: Solution
First follow the Roa dma p

a nd check the da ta for
N orm a lity .
Now let’s look at the MINITABTM Session Window. As you can see the P-value is greater than 0.05.
N ex t w e a re going to
check for va ria nce.
Before performing a
Test for Equa l
Va ria nce should the
da ta be sta ck ed?
The data illustrates that there is not a difference in variance.
Therefore we reject the accept the null hypothesis, there is no difference between a potential Black
Belt’s
’ degree and performance.
f

389
Conduct Hypothesis Testing for equal variance
Conduct Hypothesis Testing for Medians
Analyze and interpret the results
You have now completed Analyze Phase – Hypothesis Testing Non-Normal Data Part 1.
Notes

390
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Analyze Phase
Hypothesis Testing Non-Normal Data
Part 2

Hypothesis Testing Non
Non-Normal
Normal Data Part 2”
2.

391
Overview
The core
W elcome
elcome to
to Ana
Analy
lyze
ze
phase are Tests for
Proportions and ““X
X”” Sifting
Sifting
Contingency Tables.
Inferentia
Inferentiall Sta
Statistics
tistics
We will examine the
meaning of each of Intro
Intro to
to Hypothesis
Hypothesis Testing
Testing
th
these andd show
h you
Hypothesis Testing
Testing N
NDD P1
P1
Hypothesis
Hypothesis Testing
Testing N
NDD P2
P2
Hypothesis
Hypothesis Testing
Testing N
NNND
D P1
P1
Tests
Tests for
for Proportions
Proportions
Hypothesis
Hypothesis Testing
Testing N
NNND
D P2
2
P2
Contingency
Contingency Tables
Tables
W
W ra
rapp Up
Up &
& Action
Action Item
Itemss
Hypothesis Testing Roadmap Attribute Data
te Attribute Da ta
t r ib u
A t a ta
D
O ne Fa ctor Tw o Fa ctors
Two Samples Two or More Samples
One Sample
O ne Sa m ple Tw o Sa m ple Chi Squa re Test

Proportion Proportion (Contingency Ta ble)
MIN ITABTM : MIN ITABTM :
Stat - Basic Stats - 2 Proportions Stat - Tables - Chi-Square Test
If P-value < 0.05 the proportions If P-value < 0.05 at least one
are different proportion is different
Chi Squa re Test

(Contingency Ta ble)
MIN ITABTM :
Stat - Tables - Chi-Square Test
If P-value < 0.05 the factors are not
independent
We will now continue with the roadmap for Attribute Data. Since Attribute Data is Non-normal by
definition, it belongs in this module on Non-normal Data.

392
Sample Size and Types of Data

Sample size is dependent on the type of data.
For Continuous Da ta :
– Ca pa bility a na lysis – a minimum of 3 0 sa mples
– Hypothesis Testing – depends on the pra ctica l
difference to be detected a nd the inherent va ria tion
in the process.
For Attribute Da ta :
– Ca pa bility a na lysis – a lot of sa mples
– Hypothesis Testing – a lot, but depends on pra ctica l
difference to be detected.
M IN ITABTM ca n estima te sa mple sizes, but remem ber the

sm a ller the difference tha t needs to be detected the
la rger the sa mple size w ill be!
Proportion versus a Target

This formula is an approximation for ease of manual calculation.
This test is used to determ ine if the process proportion (p)

equa ls some desired va lue, p 0 .
The hypotheses:
– H0: p = p 0
– Ha: p ¹ p 0
The observed test sta tistic is ca lcula ted a s follow s:
(norma l a pprox ima tion) Z =

(pˆ − p )
0
p (1 − p )n
obs
0 0
This is compa red to Z crit = Z a / 2

393
Now let’s
let s try an example:
1 . Shipping a ccura cy must be on ta rget of 9 9 %; determine if

the current process is on ta rget.
Enter m ultiple va lues for

2 . Hypotheses: a lterna tive va lues of p
– H 0 : p = 0 .9 9 a nd M IN ITABTM w ill give
th different
the diff t sa mple
l sizes.
i
– H a : p ¹ 0 .9 9
3 . O ne sa mple proportion test

– Choose a = 5 %
4 . Sa mple size:
Take note of the how quickly the sample size increases as the alternative proportion goes up. It
would require 1402 samples to tell a difference between 98% and 99% accuracy. Our sample of
500 will do because the alternative hypothesis is 96% according to the proportion formula.

Test for O ne Proportion
Testing proportion = 0 .9 9 (versus not = 0 .9 9 )
Alpha = 0 .0 5
Alterna tive Sa mple Ta rget

Proportion Size Pow er Actua l Pow er
0 .9 5 140 0 .9 0 .9 0 0 2 4 7
Yes sir,
0 .9 6 221 0 .9 0 .9 0 0 3 8 9 th ’ all
they’re ll
0 .9 7 428 0 .9 0 .9 0 0 3 1 6
0 .9 8 1402 0 .9 0 .9 0 0 0 2 6
good!
O ur sa mple included 5 0 0 shipped items of w hich 4 8 0

w ere a ccura te
te.
X 480
p̂ = = = 0.96
n 500

394

Follow the above commands in MINITABTM. Now for the “Number
Number of trials:
trials:” field,
field enter the number
of items shipped and for the number of events, enter how many items were shipped. Now click on
the “Options” button and verify the following fields.
5 . Sta tistica l Conclusion: Reject the null hypothesis.

6 . Pra ctica l Conclusion: W e a re not performing to the a ccura cy
ta rget of 9 9 %
The hy pothesized mea n

is not w ithin the
confidence interva l, reject
the null hy pothesis.
Test a nd CI for O ne Proportion

Test of p = 0 .5 vs p not = 0 .5
Ex a ct
Stat>Basic Statistics>1 Proportion… Sa m ple X N Sa m ple p 9 5 % CI P-Va lue
1 4 8 0 5 0 0 0 .9 6 0 0 0 0 (0 .9 3 8 8 9 7 , 0 .9 7 5 3 9 9 ) 0 .0 0 0
After you analyze the data you will see the statistical conclusion is to reject the null hypothesis.
What is the Practical Conclusion…(the process is not performing to the desired accuracy of 99%).
Sample Size Exercise
Ex ercise objective: To practice solving the problem

You are the shipping manager and are in charge of

improving shipping accuracy. Your annual bonus
d
depends
d on your ability
bilit tto prove th
thatt shipping
hi i
accuracy is better than the target of 80%.
1. How many samples do you need to take if the

anticipated sample proportion is 82%?
2 Out of 2000 shipments only 1680 were accurate

2. accurate.
• Do you get your annual bonus?
• W as the sample size good enough?

395
Proportion vs. Target Example: Solution

The Alternative Proportion should be .82
82 and the Hypothesized Proportion should be .80.
80 Select a
Power Value of ‘.9’ and click “OK”.
As you can see the Sample Size should be at least 4073 to prove our hypothesis.
First w e ha ve to figure out

the proper sa mple size to
a chieve our ta rget of 8 0 %
Stat>Power and Sample Size>1 Proportion
Do you get your bonus?
Yes, you get your bonus since .80 is not within the confidence interval. Because the improvement
was 84%, the sample size was sufficient.
Answer: Use alternative proportion of .82, hypothesized proportion of .80. n=4073. Either you’d
better ship a lot of stuff or you’d better improve the process more than just 2%!
N ow let us ca lcula te if w e
?
receive our bonus…
O ut of the 2 0 0 0
shipments, 1 6 8 0 w ere
a ccura te. W a s the X 1680
sa mple size sufficient? p̂ = = = 0.84
n 2000

396
Comparing Two Proportions
MINITABTM gives you a

choice of using the This test is used to determine if the process defect ra te (or
proportion, p) of one sa mple differs by a certa in a mount D
normal approximation
from tha t of a nother sa m ple (e.g., before a nd a fter your
or the exact method. improvement a ctions)
We will use the exact
method. The formula is The hypotheses:
an approximation for
H0: p1 - p2 = D
ease of manual
Ha: p1 - p2 ¹ D
calculation.
The test sta tistic is ca lcula ted a s follow s:
p̂1 − p̂ 2 − D
Zobs =
p̂1 (1 − p̂1 ) n1 + p̂ 2 (1 − p̂ 2 ) n 2
This is compa red to Z critica l = Z a / 2
Catch some Z’s!
Sample Size and Two Proportions Practice
Take a few moment to practice calculating the minimum sample size

required to detect a difference between two proportions using a
power of 0.90.
Enter the expected proportion for proportion 2 (null hypothesis)

hypothesis).
For a more conservative estimate when the null hypothesis is close to

100, use smaller proportion for p1 . W hen the null hypothesis is close
to 0, use the larger proportion for p1 .
a δ p1 p2 n
5% .01
01 0.79
0 79 0.8
0 8 ___________
5% .01 0.81 0.8 ___________ Answers:
5% .02 0.08 0.1 ___________ 34,247
32,986
5% .02 0.12 0.1 ___________ 4,301
5% .01 0.47 0.5 ___________ 5,142
5% .01 0.53 0.5 ___________ 5,831
5,831

397

In MINITABTM click “Stat>Power Proportions . For the “Proportion
Stat>Power and Sample Size>2 Proportions” Proportion 1 values:
values:” field
type ‘.85’ and for the “Power values:” field type ‘.90’; The last field “Proportion 2:” is ‘.95’ then click
“OK”.
1. Shipping accuracy must improve from a historical baseline of 85%

towards a target of 95%. Determine if the process improvements made
have increased the accuracy.
Stat>Power and Sample Size> 2 Proportions…
2. Hypotheses:
yp
– H0 : p1 – p2 = 0.0
– Ha: p1 – p2 ¹ 0.0
3. Two sample proportion test
– Choose a = 5%
4. Sample size:
P
Pow er a ndd Sa
S mple
l Size
Si
Test for Tw o Proportions
Testing proportion 1 = proportion 2 (versus not = )
Ca lcula ting pow er for proportion 2 = 0 .9 5
Alpha = 0 .0 5
Sa m ple Ta rget
Proportion 1 Size Pow er Actua l Pow er
0 .8 5 188 0 .9 0 .9 0 1 4 5 1
A sample of at least 188 is necessary for each group to be able to detect a 10% difference. If you
have reason to believe your improved process is has only improved to 90% and you would like to
be able to prove that improvement is occurring the sample size of 188 is not appropriate.
Recalculate using .90 for proportion 2 and leave proportion 1 at .85. It would require a sample size
of 918 for each sample!
The data
shown was The follow ing da ta w ere ta k en:
gathered for
two Tota l Sa mples Accura te
processes.
Before Im provem ent 600 510
After Im provement 225 212
Ca lcula te proportions:
X1 510
Before Im provem ent: 6 0 0 sa mples, 5 1 0 a ccura te p̂1 = = = 0.85
n1 600
X 2 212
After Improvement: 2 0 0 sa mples, 2 2 0 a ccura te p̂ 2 = = = 0.942
n 2 225

398
To compare two proportions in MINITABTM select “Stat>Basic Statistics>2 Proportions”…Select

Proportions” Select
the “Summarized data” option and in the “Trials:” and “Events:” column input the appropriate data
and click “OK”.
Stat>Basic Statistics>2 Proportions…

5. Sta tistica l Conclusion:
Reject the null
6. Pra ctica l Conclusion:
You ha ve a chieved a
significa nt difference in
a ccura cy.
Test a nd CI for Tw o Proportions

Sa mple X N Sa mple p
1 510 600 0 .8 5 0 0 0 0
2 212 225 0 .9 4 2 2 2 2
Difference = p (1 ) - p (2 )
Estima te for difference: -0 .0 9 2 2 2 2 2
9 5 % CI for difference: (-0 .1 3 4 0 0 5 , -0 .0 5 0 4 3 9 9 )
Test for difference = 0 (vs not = 0 ): Z = -4 .3 3 P-Va lue =
0 .0 0 0
Boris and Igor Exercise

Boris and Igor tend to make a lot of mistakes writing

requisitions.
1. W ho is worse?
2. Is the sample size large enough?

399
2 Proportion vs Target Example: Solution
First w e need to ca lcula te

our estima ted p 1 a nd p 2 for
Boris a nd Igor.
X1 47
Boris p̂1 = = = 0.132
n1 356
X 2 99
Igor p̂ 2 = = = 0.173
n 2 571
Results:
As you can see we N ow let’s see w ha t the
Fail to reject the null minimum sa mple size w ill
hypothesis with the be…
data given. One
conclusion is the
sample size is not
large enough. It
would take a
minimum sample of
1673 to distinguish
the sample Stat>Power and Sample Size>2 Proportions
proportions for Boris
and Igor
Igor.
Sample X N Sample p Difference = p (1) - p (2)

1 47 356 0.132022 Estimate for difference: -0.0413576
2 99 571 0.173380 95% CI for difference: (-0.0882694, 0.00555426)
Test for difference = 0 (vs not = 0): Z = -1.73 P-Value = 0.084
Power and Sample Size Test for Two Proportions

Testing proportion 1 = proportion 2 (versus not =)
Calculating power for proportion 2 = 0.13
Alpha = 0.05
Sample Target
Proportion 1 Size Power Actual Power
0.17 1673 0.9 0.900078
The sample size is for each group.

400
Contingency Tables
Contingency
C ti T bl a re used
Ta bles d to
t simulta
i lt neouslyl compa re
m ore tha n tw o sa mple proportions w ith ea ch other.
It is ca lled a Contingency Ta ble beca use w e a re testing

w hether the proportion is contingent upon, or dependent
upon the fa ctor used to subgroup the da ta .
This test genera lly w ork s the best w ith 5 or more

observa tions in ea ch cell. O bserva tions ca n be pooled by
combining cells.
Som e ex a mples for use include:

– Return proportion by product line
– Cla im proportion by custom er
– Defect proportion by m a nufa cturing line
The null hy pothesis is tha t the popula tion proportions of

ea ch group a re the sa me.
– H0: p1 = p2 = p3 = … = pn
– H a : a t lea st one p is different
Sta tisticia ns ha ve show n tha t the follow ing sta tistic forms
a chi-squa re distribution w hen H 0 is true:
∑
(observed − expected)
2
expected
W here “ observed
observed” is the sa mple frequency
frequency, “ ex pected
pected”
is the ca lcula ted frequency ba sed on the null hypothesis,
a nd the summa tion is over a ll cells in the ta ble.
Th ..oh,
That? oh, that’s
h
my contingency
table!
401
Test Statistic Calculations
Chi-squa re Test
r c (Oij − E ij ) 2
χ =∑ ∑
2 W here:
o
i =1 j=1 E ij O = the observed va lue
(from sa mple da ta )
E = th
the ex pected
t d va lue
l
(F * F )
E ij = row col r = number of row s
Ftotal c = number of columns
Frow = tota l frequency for tha t
2
χ critical = χ α,2 ν row
Fcol = tota l frequency for tha t
From the Chi-Square
Chi Square Table column
Ftota l = tota l frequency for the ta ble
n = degrees of freedom [(r-1 )(c-1 )]
Wow!!! Can you believe this is the math in a Contingency Table. Thank goodness for MINITABTM.
Now let’s do an example.
Contingency Table Example
1 . La rry, Curley a nd M oe a re order entry opera tors a nd

you suspect tha t one of them ha s a low er defect ra te
tha n the others.
others
2 . H o : p M oe = p La rry = p Curley
H a : a t lea st one p is different
3 . Use contingency ta ble since there a re 3 proportions.
4 . Sa mple size: To ensure tha t a minimum of 5
occurrences w ere detected
detected, the test w a s run for one
da y. Moe Larry Curley
Defective 5 8 20
OK 20 30 25
Can’t you clowns get

the entries correct?!
Note the data gathered in the table. Curley isn’t looking too good right now (as if he ever did).

402
The sample data are

the “observed” The sa mple da ta a re the “ observed” frequencies. To
frequencies. To ca lcula te the “ ex pected” frequencies, first a dd up the
calculate the row s a nd columns:
“expected”
frequencies, first add Moe Larry Curley Total
up the rows and Defective 5 8 20 33
columns. Then OK 20 30 25 75
calculate the overall T t l
Total 25 38 45 108
proportion for each
row.
Then ca lcula te the overa ll proportion for ea ch row :
Moe Larry Curley Total

Defective 5 8 20 33 0.306
OK 20 30 25 75 0.694 33/ 108 =
Total 25 38 45 108 0 .3 0 6
N ow use these proportions to ca lcula te the ex pected

frequencies in ea ch cell:
0 .3 0 6 *4 5 = 1 3 .8

Defective 5 8 20 33 0.306
OK 20 30 25 75 0.694
Total 25 38 45 108
0 .6 9 4 * 3 8 = 2 6 .4

403
N ex t ca lcula te the χ2 va lue for ea ch cell in the ta ble:
(observed - expected)2
expected
Moe Larry Curley (20 − 13.8)2 = 2.841

Defective 0.912 1.123 2.841
OK 0.401 0.494 1.250 13.8
Fina lly, a dd these numbers to get the observed chi-squa re:
2 = 0.912 +1.123 + 2.841+

χ obs
0.401+ 0.494 +1.250
χ obs = 7.02
2
The final step is to create a summary table including the observed chi-squared.
A summ a ry of the ta ble:

Moe Larry Curley
Observed 5 8 20
E
Expected
t d 76
7.6 11 6
11.6 13 8
13.8
2
Defective χ 0.912 1.123 2.841
Observed 20 30 25
Expected 17.4 26.4 31.3 2 = 7.02
χ obs
2
OK χ 0.401 0.494 1.250

404
Critica l Va lue:
• Like any other Hypothesis Test, compare the observed statistic with
the critical statistic. W e decide a = 0.05, what else do we need to
know?
• For a chi-square
chi square distribution, we need to specify n, in a
contingency table:
n = (r - 1)(c - 1), where
r = # of rows
c = # of columns
• In our example,
example we have 2 rows and 3 columns
columns, so n = 2
• W hat is the critical chi-square? For a Contingency Table, all the
risk is in the right hand tail (i.e. a one-tail test); look it up in
MIN ITABTM (Calc>Probability Distributions>Chisquare…)
2 = 5.99
χ crit
Gra phica l Sum m a ry:

Since the observed chi-squa re ex ceeds the critica l chi-
squa re, w e reject the null hypothesis tha t the defect
ra te is independent of w hich person enters the orders.
Chi
Chi-square probability
b bilit ddensity
it ffunction
ti ffor n = 2
0.5
0.4
0.3
Accept Reject
f
0.2 χobs
2 = 7.02
0.1
0.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
chi-square χcrit
2 = 5.99

405
Contingency Table Example (cont.)
Using M IN ITABTM
• O f course M IN ITABTM elimina tes the tedium of crunching

these numbers. Type the order entry da ta from the
Contingency Ta ble Ex a mple into M IN ITABTM a s show n:
• N otice tha t row la bels a re not necessa ry, a nd row a nd

column tota ls a re not used, just the observed counts for
ea ch cell.
As you can see the data confirms: to reject the null hypothesis.
5. Sta tistica l Conclusion: Reject

the null hypothesis.
6. Pra ctica l Conclusion: The
defect rate for one of these stooges
g
is different. In other words, defect
rate is contingent upon stooge.
Chi-Square Test
Expected counts are printed below observed counts
1 5 8 20 33
7.64 11.61 13.75
0.912 1.123 2.841
2 20 30 25 75
17.36 26.39 31.25
0.401 0.494 1.250
Stat>Tables>Chi-Square Test
Total 25 38 45 108
Chi-Sq = 7.021, DF = 2, P-Value = 0.030

406
Quotations Exercise

• You are the quotations manager and your team thinks that the
reason you don’t get a contract depends on its complexity.
• You determine a way to measure complexity and classify lost
contracts as follows:
Low Med High

Price 8 10 12
Lead Time 10 11 9
Technology 5 9 16
1. W rite the null and alternative hypothesis.

2. Does complexity have an effect?
Contingency Table Example: Solution
First w e need to crea te a

ta ble in M IN ITABTM
Secondly, in M IN ITABTM
perform
f a Chi-Squa
Chi S re Test
T t
Stat>Tables>Chi-Square Test

407
Contingency Table Example: Solution (cont.)
After analyzing the data we can see the P

P-value
value is 0.426
0 426 which is larger than 0.05.
0 05 Therefore,
Therefore we
accept the null hypothesis.
Are the fa ctors independent

of ea ch other?
Overview
Contingency Tables are another form of Hypothesis Testing.

They are used to test for association (or dependency) between two
classifications.
The null hypothesis is that the classifications are independent.
A Chi-square Test is used for frequency (count) type data.
If the data is converted to a rate (over time) then a continuous type
test would be possible. However, determining the period of time that
the rate is based on can be controversial. W e do not want to just pick
a convenient interval
interval, there needs to be some rational behind the
decision. Many times we see rates based on a day because that is
the easiest way to collect data. However, a more appropriate way
would be to look at the rate distribution per hour.
Per hour? Per day? Per month?

408
Calculate and explain test for proportions
Calculate and explain contingency tests
You have now completed Analyze Phase – Hypothesis Testing Non-Normal Data Part 2.
Notes

409
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Analyze Phase
Wrap Up and Action Items
Now we will conclude the Analyze Phase with “Wrap

Items.

410
Analyze Phase Wrap Up Overview
The goa l of the Ana lyze Pha se is to:
• Locate the variables which are significantly impacting your Primary

Metric. Then establish root causes for “ X” variables using Inferential
Statistical Analysis such as Hypothesis Testing and Simple Modeling.
• Gain and demonstrate a working knowledge of inferential statistics as

a means of identification of leverage variables.
Six Sigma Behaviors
• Embracing change
• Continuous learning
• Being tenacious and courageous
• Make data-based decisions
• Being rigorous
• Thinking outside of the box
Ea
Each
ch ““pla
playerer” in
yyer” in the
the Six
Six Sigm
Sigmaa process
process m
must
ust be
be
AA RO
ROLELEMMOODEL
DEL
for
for the Six Sigm a culture.
the Six Sigm a culture.
A Six Sigma Black Belt has a tendency to take on many roles, therefore these behaviors help you
through the journey.

411
Analyze Deliverables
Sample
p size is dependent
p on the type
yp of data.
• Listed below are the Analyze Phase deliverables that each candidate
will present in a Power Point presentation at the beginning of the
Control Phase training.
• At this point you should all understand what is necessary to provide
these deliverables in your presentation.
– Team Members (Team Meeting Attendance)
– Primary Metric
– Secondary Metric(s)
– Data Demographics
– Hypothesis Testing (applicable tools)
– Modeling (applicable tools)
– Strategy to reduce X’s
– Project Plan
– Issues and Barriers It’s your show!
Analyze Phase - The Roadblocks

Each phase will have roadblocks. Many will be similar throughout your project.
Look for the potential roadblocks and plan to address them

before they become problems:
– Lack of data
– Data presented is the best guess by functional
managers
– Team members do not have the time to collect data
– Process participants do not participate in the analysis
planning
– Lack of access to the process

412
DMAIC Roadmap
Now you should be able to prove/disprove the impact “X’s”

X s have on a problem.
problem
Process Owner
Champion/
Identify Problem Area
Determine Appropriate Project Focus

Define
Estimate COPQ
D
Establish Team
Measure
Assess Stability, Capability, and Measurement Systems
Identify and Prioritize All X’s

Analyze
Prove/ Disprove Impact X’s Have On Problem

Improve
Identify, Prioritize, Select Solutions Control or Eliminate X’s Causing Problems
Implement Solutions to Control or Eliminate X’s Causing Problems

Control
Implement Control Plan to Ensure Problem Doesn’t Return
Verify Financial Impact
Analyze Phase
Over 80% of projects will

realize their solutions in the Vital Few X’s Identified
Analyze Phase – then we

State Practical Theories of Vital Few X’s Impact on Problem
must move to the Control
Phase to assure we can Translate Practical Theories into Scientific Hypothesis
sustain our improvements. Select Analysis Tools to Prove/ Disprove Hypothesis
Collect Data
Perform Statistical Tests
State Practical Conclusion
Statistically
Significant?
N
Y
Update FMEA
N
Practically
Significant?
Root
Cause
N
Y
Identify Root Cause
Ready for Improve and Control

413
Analyze Phase Checklist
Ana lyze Q uestions
Define Performa nce O bjectives Gra phica l Ana lysis

• Is existing data laid out graphically?
• Are there newly identified secondary metrics?
• Is the response discrete or continuous?
• Is it a mean or a variance problem or both?
Document Potentia l X ’s Root Ca use Ex plora tion

• Are there a reduced number of potential X’s?
• W ho participated in these activities?
• Are the number of likely X’s reduced to a practical number for analysis?
• W hat is the statement of statistical problem?
• Does the process owner buy into these root causes?
Ana ly ze Sources of Va ria bility Sta tistica l Tests

• Are there completed Hypothesis Tests?
• Is there an updated FMEA?
Genera l Q uestions
• Are there any issues or barriers that prevent you from completing this phase?
• Do you have adequate resources to complete the project?
Planning for Action
This is a template that should be used with each project to assure you take the proper steps –
remember, Six Sigma is very much about taking steps. Lots of them and in the correct order.
W HAT W HO W HEN W HY W HY N O T HO W
Qualitative screening of vital from controllable trivial Xs

Qualitative screening for other factors
Quantitative screening of vital from controllable trivial Xs
Ensure compliance to problem solving strategy
Quantify risk of meeting needs of customer

customer, business and people
Predict risk of sustainability
Chart a plan to accomplish desired state of culture
Assess shift in process location

Minimize risk of process failure
Modeling Continuous or N on Continuous Output

Achieving breakthrough in Y with minimum efforts
Validate Financial Benefits

414
At this point, you should:
Have started to develop a project plan to meet the deliverables
Have identified ways to deal with potential roadblocks
Be ready to apply the Six Sigma method through your project
Y ’ on your way!
You’re a !
You have now completed the Analyze Phase. Congratulations!
Notes

415
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Analyze Phase
Quiz
Now we will see what you have retained from the Analyze Phase of the course. Please answer
these questions to the best of your ability without referencing the text. The answers are in the
Appendix. Please check your answers against the answers provided and review the sections in
the Analyze Phase where your retention of the knowledge is less than you desire.

416
Analyze Phase Quiz
1. The Multi-Vari Chart was originally designed to show variation from 3 primary sources:
Within unit, Between unit, and Temporal (or over time).
True False
2. One Six Sigma tool helps to screen factors by using graphical techniques to logically
subgroup multiple Discrete X´s plotted against a Continuous Y is known as a
________________________Chart. (fill in the blank)
3 The following definition

3. definition, error in the testing of the samples is an example of what type of
error. (check all that apply)
A. Error in Sampling
B. Bias in Sampling
C. Lack of measurement validity
D. Error in measurement
4. As the sample size becomes large, the new distribution of Means will form a Normal
Distribution, no matter what the shape of the population distribution of individuals are.
This concept is known as the Central Limit Theorem.
True False
5. Which of the following statements are true regarding Hypothesis Testing? (check all that
apply)
A. A Hypothesis Test is an a priori theory relating to differences between variables
B A statistical test or Hypothesis Test is performed to prove or disprove the theory
B.
C. A Hypothesis Test converts the Practical Problem into a Statistical Problem.
D. A Hypothesis Test illustrates short-term results
6. What are the four primary causes for Non-normal Data? (check all that apply)
A. Skewness
B. Mixed Distributions
C. Kurtosis
D. Formulosis
E. Granularity
7. When a data set is Normally Distributed, making inferences about the true nature of the
population based on random samples drawn from the population is an example of using
Non-normal Data.
True False
8. From the list below, which is the best example of a Mann-Whitney Test? (check all that
apply)
A. Determine if one of a few machines has a different Mean cycle time
B. Determine if one of a few machines has a different Median cycle time
C. Determine if document A and document B have different Mean cycle times
D. Determine if document A and document B have different Median cycle times
9. Unequal variances can be the result of differing types of distributions.

True False

417
Analyze Phase Quiz
10. Having Unequal variance is a result of similar distributions having: (check all that apply)
A Extreme
A. E t tails
t il
B. Outliers
C. Multiple Modes
D. Having the tails of the distribution equal each other
11. Conducting a Capability Analysis using Attribute Data should contain a lot of samples to
be statistical sound.
True False
12. Contingency Tables are used to: (check all that apply)
A. Illustrate one tail proportion
B. Compare more than two sample proportions with each other
C. Contrast the outliers under the tail
D. Analyze the ´´what if´´ scenario
13 C
13. Contingency
ti T
Tables
bl are used
d tto ttestt ffor association
i ti ((or d
dependency)
d )bbetween
t ttwo or
more classifications.
True False
14. To conduct a proper Capability Analysis using Continuous Data, what is the minimum
recommended number of samples to use? (check all that apply)
A. 15
B. 20
C. 30
D. 50
15. For a Skewed Distribution, the appropriate statistic to describe the central tendency is:
(check all that apply)
A. Mean
B. Median
C M
C. Mode
d
16. A Non-parametric Test makes assumptions about the data are from Normal
Populations.
True False
17. If the results from a Hypothesis Test are located in the ´´Region of Doubt´´ area, what
can be concluded? ((check all that apply)
pp y)
A. Failure to reject the Null Hypothesis
B. Failure to accept the Null Hypothesis
C. The test was conducted improperly
D. Rejection of the alpha
18. Alpha risk is typically lower than beta risk.

True False
19. To conduct a proper Hypothesis Test there are six recommended steps to follow.
True False

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Certified Lean Six

Lean Six Sigma

Certified Lean Six Sigma Black Belt Book Copyright OpenSourceSixSigma.com

These are the

Analyze Phase Roadmap

Identify Problem Area

Determine Appropriate Project Focus

Assess Stability, Capability, and Measurement Systems

Identify and Prioritize All X’s

Prove/ Disprove Impact X’s Have On Problem

Identify, Prioritize, Select Solutions Control or Eliminate X’s Causing Problems

Implement Solutions to Control or Eliminate X’s Causing Problems

Verify Financial Impact

Certified Lean Six Sigma Black Belt Book Copyright OpenSourceSixSigma.com

Understanding Six Sigma

Analyze Phase Process Map

Vital Few X’s Identified

State Practical Theories of Vital Few x’s Impact on Problem

Translate Practical Theories into Scientific Hypothesis

Select Analysis Tools to Prove/ Disprove Hypothesis

Perform Statistical Tests

State Practical Conclusion

Ready for Improve and Control

Certified Lean Six Sigma Black Belt Book Copyright OpenSourceSixSigma.com

Lean Six Sigma

Certified Lean Six Sigma Black Belt Book Copyright OpenSourceSixSigma.com

We will examine the Intro

In the Define Phase we used Process Mapping to identify all the

Certified Lean Six Sigma Black Belt Book Copyright OpenSourceSixSigma.com

Vari Studies – is a tool that graphically displays patterns of variation

Multi-Vari Chart can also be used to assess capability

The use of a Multi-Vari Chart is to illustrate analysis of variance data graphically.

A picture can be worth a thousand words, or numbers.

Multi-Vari Charts reveal information such as:

Certified Lean Six Sigma Black Belt Book Copyright OpenSourceSixSigma.com

To put Multi-Vari studies in practice follow an example of an injection molding process.

Certified Lean Six Sigma Black Belt Book Copyright OpenSourceSixSigma.com

Machine Layout & Variables

If you find this initial

Monday W ednesday Friday

Monday W ednesday Friday

day and plot 3 time

Certified Lean Six Sigma Black Belt Book Copyright OpenSourceSixSigma.com

Using Multi-Vari to Narrow X’s

Step 1 - Graph the data from the process in Multi-Vari form.

Step 2 - Identify the largest family of variation.

Step 3 - Establish statistical significance through the appropriate

Certified Lean Six Sigma Black Belt Book Copyright OpenSourceSixSigma.com

Open the MINITABTM

After you create the graph

Here is the graph that should have been generated.

Certified Lean Six Sigma Black Belt Book Copyright OpenSourceSixSigma.com

Identify The Largest Family of Variation

Now let’s try and find

Root Cause Analysis

After the analysis we now

Call Center Example

Method What is the largest

Location Is the largest

Notice the Multi-

Certified Lean Six Sigma Black Belt Book Copyright OpenSourceSixSigma.com