BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN CIVIL ENGINEERING

CE 11 PRINCIPLES OF
TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING

Engr. Hebe M. Cuenco-Uy, MECE

College of Engineering
 2 | Principles of Transportation Engineering

Learning Packet 2
UNIT 4:
INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
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UNIT 4: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING

4.0 Intended Learning Outcome

 Identify the factors influencing travel demand and steps for travel forecasting
 Estimate travel demand by trip generation
 Calculate travel demand by trip distribution

4.1 Introduction

This unit discusses the steps in travel forecasting process. These include estimation of
number trips each activity will produce or attract. Next is identifying the origin or
destination of trips that are generated at a given activity. Then, determining which mo de of
transportation will be used to make the trip. And lastly, finding which route on the
transportation network will be used when making the trip where each user seeks to minimize
their travel time on the network.

P RE – A SSESSMENT
Answer the following in your own perspective:

1. Identify and briefly describe the two basic demand forecasting situations in
transportation planning.
2. Classify the three factors that affect the demand for urban travel?
3. Define the following terms: (a) home-based work (HBW) trips, (b) home-based other
(HBO) trips, (c) non-home-based (NHB) trips, (d) production, (e) attractions, (f) origin,
and (g) destination.

Evaluation Criteria:

Quality/Craftmanship 40%
Creativity/Originality 30%
Effort/Perseverance 20%
Timeliness 10%
Total 100%

4.2 Topics/Discussion

Travel Demand Forecasting is a key component of the transportation engineer’s technical

repertoire. It allows the engineer to predict the volume of traffic that will use a given
 2 | Principles of Transportation Engineering 45

transportation element in the future, whether that element is an existing highway or a

potential light-rail route.

Travel demand is expressed as the number of persons or vehicles per unit time that can be
expected to travel on a given segment of a transportation system under a set of given land-
use, socioeconomic, and environmental conditions. Forecasting of travel demand is to
predict future transport demand when establishing transport plans within a given budget.
Since transport demand closely interacts with socioeconomic environment and land use,
future socioeconomic indexes and land use patterns need to be estimated first. The methods
used in forecasting demand will depend on the availability of data and on specific
constraints on the project, such as availability of funds and project schedules.

Transport demand forecasting is used as important basic data to evaluate the efficiency of
transport facility supply and transport policy, such as road construction, public transport
introduction, and transport demand management implementation. It is also used to evaluate
land use plans by estimating travel volume according to the change of land use patterns
within a given transport system.

4.2.1 Demand Forecasting Approaches

There are two basic demand forecasting situations in transportation planning. The first
involves travel demand studies for urban areas, and the second deals with intercity travel
demand. Urban travel demand forecasts, when first developed in the 1950s and 1960s,
required that extensive databases be prepared using home interview and/or roadside
interview surveys. The information gathered provided useful insight concerning the
characteristics of the trip maker, such as age, sex, income, auto ownership, and so forth; the
land use at each end of the trip; and the mode of travel. Travel data then could be aggregated
by zone and/or be used at a more disaggregated level— that is, household or individual—
to formulate relationships between variables and to calibrate models.

The databases that were established in many urban transportation studies have been used
for the calibration and testing of models for trip generation, distribution, modal choice, and
traffic assignment. These data collection and calibration efforts involved a significant
investment of money and personnel resources, and consequent studies are based on
updating the existing database and using models that had been previously developed.

Travel Demand Forecasting is a multi-stage process, and there are several different
techniques that can be used at each stage. Generally, Travel Demand Forecasting involves
five interrelated tasks.

1. Break the area that requires prediction of future travel demand into a set of traffic
analysis zones (TAZ) that form the basis for analysis of travel movements within, into,
and out of the urban area.
2. Calculate the number of trips starting in each zone for a particular trip purpose. (Trip
Generation Analysis)
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3. Produce a table of the number of trips starting in each zone and ending up in each
other zone. (Trip Distribution Analysis)
4. Complete the allocation of the various trips among the available transportation
systems (bus, train, pedestrian, and private vehicles). (Modal Choice Analysis)
5. Identify the specific routes on each transportation system that will be selected by the
travelers. (Trip Assignment Analysis)

Factors Influencing Travel Demand

The location and intensity of land use – Land-use

characteristics are a primary determinant of travel
demand. The amount of traffic generated by a parcel of
land depends on how the land is used. For example,
shopping centers, residential complexes, and office
buildings produce different traffic generation patterns.

The socioeconomic characteristics of people living in the

area – Socioeconomic characteristics of the people living
within the city also influence the demand for
transportation. Lifestyles and values affect how people
decide to use their resources for transportation. For
example, a residential area consisting primarily of high-
income workers will generate more trips by automobile per
person than a residential area populated primarily by
retirees.

The extent, cost, and quality of available transportation

services – The availability of transportation facilities and
services, referred to as the supply, also affects the demand
for travel. Travelers are sensitive to the level of service
provided by alternative transportation modes. When
deciding whether to travel at all or which mode to use, they
consider attributes such as travel time, cost, convenience,
comfort, and safety.

Once these five steps have been completed, the transportation engineer will have a clear
picture of the projected travel demand for an existing or proposed transportation system.
 2 | Principles of Transportation Engineering 47

Figure 4.1
Travel Forecasting Process

Figure 4.2
First Steps in Travel Demand Forecasting Process
Description of the Study Area

Study Boundary Zones Links and Nodes

•First, define the exact area
to be considered.
•Areas may be defined by
the urban growth
boundary (UGB), county
lines or town centers.
•Planning area generally
includes all the developed
land, plus undeveloped
land that the area will
encompass in the next 20
to 30 years.
•The cordon line denotes
the boundary of the
planning area, should
intersect a minimum
number of roads.
•Study area must then be
divided into analysis units,
or zones.
•Transportation analysis
zones (TAZ) vary in size
depending on the density
or nature of the
development.
•In an urban area the TAZ
may be as small as a city
block, but in rural areas
the TAZ may be as large as
10 or more square miles.
•Important consideration in
establishing zones is their
compatibility with the
transportation network.
As a general rule, the
network should form the
boundaries of the zones.
•A network, indicates
roadways and other
transportation routes
•Links represent sections of
roadway (or railway etc.)
that are homogeneous.
•Nodes are simply points at
which links meet.
•Centroids are used as the
points as which trips are
"loaded" onto the
network.
•In the network
description,
zone centroids (centers of
activity) are identified;
they are connected to
nodes by imaginary links
called centroid connectors.
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4.2.2 Trip Generation

Once the study area has been broken into zones, the next task involves quantifying the
number of trips that each zone will produce or attract. The number of trips to and from an
area or zone is related to the land use activities of the zone and the socioeconomic
characteristics of the trip-makers.

There are at least three characteristics of land use and trip-makers that are important. The
density or intensity of the land use is important. Many studies begin by determining the
number of dwellings, employees, or tenants per acre. The intensity can be related to an
average number of trips per day, based on experience with the type of land use at hand.
Next, the social and economic character of the users can influence the number of trips that
are expected. Character attributes like average family income, education, and car ownership
influence the number of trips that will be produced by a zone. Finally, location plays an
important role in trip production and attraction. Street congestion, parking, and other
environmental attributes can increase or decrease the number of trips that an area produces
or attracts.

To illustrate the process, two methods are considered: cross-classification, and regression
analysis, which has been applied to estimate both productions and attractions. The
regression analysis method is used infrequently because it relies on zonal aggregated data.
Trip generation methods that use a disaggregated analysis, based on individual sample units
such as persons, households, income, and vehicle units, are preferred.

4.2.2.1 Cross Classification Analysis

Cross-Classification procedures measure the changes in one variable (trips) when other
variables (land use etc.) are accounted for. Cross-Classification resembles multiple
regression techniques. It is essentially non-parametric, since no account is taken of the
distribution of the individual values. One problem with the Cross-Classification technique
is that the "independent" variables may not be truly independent, and the resultant
relationships and predictions may well be invalid.

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Trip Production Model uses Cross-
Classification and has the following sub-models:
a. Income sub-model: reflects the distribution of households within various income
categories (e.g. high, medium and low).
b. Auto ownership sub-model: relates the household income to auto ownership.
c. Trip production sub-model: establishes the relationship between the trips made by each
household and the independent variables.
d. Trip purpose sub-model: relates the trip purposes to income in such a manner that the
trip productions can be divided among various purposes. These models are developed
using origin-destination travel surveys.

A considerable amount of research and development has focused on the area of disaggregate
models for improved travel demand forecasting. The difference between the aggregate and
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disaggregate techniques is mainly in the data efficiency. Aggregate models are usually based
upon home interview origin and destination data that has been aggregated into zones; then
the "average" zonal productions and attractions are derived. The disaggregate approach is
based on large samples of household types and travel behaviors and uses data directly. There
are savings in the amount of data required and some of the data can be transferred to other
applications. The disaggregate approach expresses non-linear relationships and is more
easily understood.

S AMPLE PROBLEM 4.1

The tables shown in Figure 4.2 below show several steps of a cross-classification analysis.

Figure 4.3
Cross Classification Analysis
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Follows an illustration how trip generation is determined for residential zones where the
basic unit is the household. Trips generated at the household end are referred to as
productions, and they are attracted to zones for purposes such as work, shopping,
visiting friends, and medical trips. Thus, an activity unit can be described by measures
such as square feet of floor space or number of employees. Trip attraction rates are
illustrated in the table below.

Table 4.1 Trip Generation Rates by Trip Purpose and Employee Category

S AMPLE PROBLEM 4.2 Computing Trips Generated in an Activity Zone

A commercial center in the downtown contains several retail establishments and light
industries. Employed at the center are 220 retail and 650 non-retail workers. Determine
the number of trips per day attracted to this zone.

Solution

Use the trip generation rates listed in Table 4.1.

HBW: (220 x 1.7) + (650 x 1.7) = 1479

HBO: (220 x 5.0) + (650 x 2.0) = 2400
NHB: (220 x 3.0) + (650 x 1.0) = 1310
Total = 5189 trips/day

Note that three trip purposes are given in Table 4.1: home-based work (HBW), home-
based other (HBO), and non-home-based (NHB). For example, for HBO trips, there are
5.0 attractions per downtown retail employee (in trips/day) and 2.0 attractions per non-
retail employee.

4.2.2.2 Multiple Regression Analysis

Multiple Regression Analysis is based on trip generation as a function of one or more

independent variables. The approach is mathematical and all of the variables are considered
random, and with normal distributions.
 2 | Principles of Transportation Engineering 51

Multiple Regression Analysis is relatively simple to understand. First, data regarding the
actual number of productions and attractions is coupled with data about the area that is
thought to impact the production and attraction of trips. For instance, the total population
is believed to impact the number of trips produced. If we know the number of trips produced
and the population for the present and a few time periods in the past, it is possible to develop
a relationship between these parameters using statistical regression. Once we are satisfied
with the relationship that has been developed, we can extrapolate into the future by plugging
the future population into our relationship and solving for the number of productions. The
process is called Multiple Regression, because there are normally several variables that
impact trip production and attraction.

S AMPLE PROBLEM 4.3 Estimating Trips per Day Using Multiple Regression

A multiple regression analysis shows the following relationship for the number of trips
per household.

𝑇 = 0.82 + 1.3𝑃 + 2.1𝐴 Eq. 4.1

where, 𝑇 = number of trips per household per day

𝑃 = number of persons per household
𝐴 = number of autos per household

If a particular TAZ contains 250 households with an average of 4 persons and 2 autos
for each household, determine the average number of trips per day in that zone.

Solution

Step 1. Calculate the number of trips per household.

𝑇 = 0.82 + 1.3𝑃 + 2.1𝐴

𝑇 = 0.82 + (1.3 𝑥 4) + (2.1 𝑥 2)
𝑇 = 10.22 trips/household/day

Step 2. Determine the number of trips in the entire zone.

Total Trips in TAZ = 250 (10.22) = 2,555 trips/day

4.2.3 Trip Distribution

The decision to travel for a given purpose is called trip generation. These generated trips
from each zone is then distributed to all other zones based on the choice of destination. This
is called trip distribution which forms the second stage of travel demand modeling. There
are a number of methods to distribute trips among destinations; and two such methods are
growth factor model and gravity model. Growth factor model is a method which respond
only to relative growth rates at origins and destinations and this is suitable for short-term
 2 | Principles of Transportation Engineering 52

trend extrapolation. In gravity model, we start from assumptions about trip making
behavior and the way it is influenced by external factors. An important aspect of the use of
gravity models is their calibration, that is the task of fixing their parameters so that the base
year travel pattern is well represented by the model.

4.2.3.1 Gravity Model

The gravity model is much like Newton's theory of gravity. The gravity model assumes that
the trips produced at an origin and attracted to a destination are directly proportional to the
total trip productions at the origin and the total attractions at the destination. The calibrating
term or "friction factor" (𝐹) represents the reluctance or impedance of persons to make trips
of various duration or distances. The general friction factor indicates that as travel times
increase, travelers are increasingly less likely to make trips of such lengths. Calibration of
the gravity model involves adjusting the friction factor.

The socioeconomic adjustment factor is an adjustment factor for individual trip interchanges.
An important consideration in developing the gravity model is "balancing" productions and
attractions. Balancing means that the total productions and attractions for a study area are
equal.

Mathematically, the gravity model is expressed as

Eq. 4.2

where,
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = number of trips that are produced in zone 𝑖 and attracted to zone 𝑗
𝑃𝑖 = total number of trips produced in zone 𝑖
𝐴𝑗 = number of trips attracted to zone 𝑗
𝐹𝑖𝑗 = a value which is an inverse function of travel time
𝐾𝑖𝑗 = socioeconomic adjustment factor for interchange 𝑖𝑗

The values of 𝑃𝑖 and 𝐴𝑗 have been determined in the trip generation process. The sum of 𝑃𝑖
for all zones must equal the sum of 𝐴𝑗 for all zones. 𝐾𝑖𝑗 values are used when the estimated
trip interchange must be adjusted to ensure that it agrees with the observed trip interchange.

S AMPLE PROBLEM 4.4

To illustrate the application of the gravity model, consider a study area consisting of
three zones. The data have been determined as follows: the number of productions and
attractions has been computed for each zone by methods described in the section on trip
generation, and the average travel times between each zone have been determined.
Both are shown in Tables 4.2 and 4.3. Assume 𝐾𝑖𝑗 is the same unit value for all zones.
 2 | Principles of Transportation Engineering 53

The 𝐹 values have been calibrated as shown in Table 4.4 for each travel time increment.
Note that the intrazonal travel time for zone 1 is larger than those of most other inter-
zone times because of the geographical characteristics of the zone and lack of access
within the area. This zone could represent conditions in a congested downtown area.

Determine the number of zone-to-zone trips through two iterations.

Solution

The number of trips between each zone is computed using the gravity model and the
given data. (Note: 𝐹𝑖𝑗 is obtained by using the travel times in Table 4.3 and selecting
the correct 𝐹 value from Table 4.4. For example, travel time is 2 min between zones 1
and 2. The corresponding 𝐹 value is 52).

Table 4.2 Trip Productions and Attractions for a Three-Zone Study Area

Table 4.3 Travel Time between Zones (min)

Table 4.4 Travel Time versus Friction Factor

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Use Eq. 4.2

Make similar calculations for zones 2 and 3.

The results summarized in Table 4.5 represent a singly constrained gravity model. This
constraint is that the sum of the productions in each zone is equal to the number of
productions given in the problem statement. However, the number of attractions
estimated in the trip distribution phase differs from the number of attractions given. For
zone 1, the correct number is 300, whereas the computed value is 379. Values for zone
2 are 270 versus 210, and for zone 3, they are 180 versus 161.

Table 4.5 Zone-to-Zone Trips: First Iteration, Singly Constrained

To create a doubly constrained gravity model where the computed attractions equal the
given attractions, calculate the adjusted attraction factors according to the formula

Eq. 4.3

where,
𝐴𝑗𝑘 = adjusted attraction factor for attraction zone (column) 𝑗, iteration 𝑘
𝐴𝑗𝑘 = 𝐴𝑗 when 𝑘 = 1
𝐶𝑗𝑘 = actual attraction (column) total for zone 𝑗, iteration 𝑘
 2 | Principles of Transportation Engineering 55

𝐴𝑗 = desired attraction total for attraction zone (column) 𝑗

𝑗 = attraction zone number, 𝑗 = 1, 2, . . . , 𝑛
𝑛 = number of zones
𝑘 = iteration number, 𝑘 = 1, 2, . . . , 𝑚
𝑚 = number of iterations

To produce a doubly constrained gravity model, repeat the trip distribution

computations using modified attraction values so that the numbers attracted will be
increased or reduced as required. For zone 1, for example, the estimated attractions
were too great. Therefore, the new attraction factors are adjusted downward by
multiplying the original attraction value by the ratio of the original to estimated
attraction values.

Apply the gravity model ( Eq. 4.2) for all iterations to calculate zonal trip interchanges
using the adjusted attraction factors obtained from the preceding iteration. In practice,
the gravity model becomes

where 𝑇𝑖𝑗𝑘 is the trip interchange between 𝑖 and 𝑗 for iteration 𝑘, and 𝐴𝑗𝑘 = 𝐴𝑗 when
𝑘 = 1. Subscript 𝑗 goes through one complete cycle every time 𝑘 changes, and 𝑖 goes
through one complete cycle every time 𝑗 changes. This formula is enclosed in parentheses
and subscripted to indicate that the complete process is performed for each trip purpose.

Perform a second iteration using the adjusted attraction values.

 2 | Principles of Transportation Engineering 56

Make similar calculations for zones 2 and 3.

The results are summarized in Table 4.6. Note that, in each case, the sum of the
attractions is now much closer to the given value. The process will be continued until
there is a reasonable agreement (within 5%) between the 𝐴 that is estimated using the
gravity model and the values that are furnished in the trip generation phase.

Table 4.6 Zone-to-Zone Trips: Second Iteration, Doubly Constrained

When should a singly constrained gravity model or the doubly constrained gravity model be
used? The singly constrained gravity model may be preferred if the friction factors are more
reliable than the attraction values. The doubly constrained gravity model is appropriate if
the attraction values are more reliable than friction factors. To illustrate either choice,
consider the following example:

S AMPLE PROBLEM 4.5 Selecting Singly or Doubly Constrained Gravity Model Results

A three-zone system with 900 home-based shopping productions is shown in Table 4.7.
Zones 1 and 2 each generate 400 productions, while zone 3 generates 100 productions.
Each zone contains a shopping mall with 300 attractions. The shopping mall in zone 1
can be easily reached due to the parking availability and transit service. Thus, 𝐹11 , 𝐹21 ,
and 𝐹31 = 1.0. Parking costs at the shopping mall in zone 2 are moderate with some
transit service. Thus, 𝐹12 , 𝐹22 , and 𝐹32 = 0.5. Parking costs at the mall in zone 3 is high
and transit service is unavailable. Thus, 𝐹13 , 𝐹23 , and 𝐹33 = 0.2.

Application of the singly constrained gravity model yields the results shown in Table 4.8
and application of the doubly constrained gravity model yields the results shown in Table
4.9.
 2 | Principles of Transportation Engineering 57

Table 4.7 Home-Based Shopping Productions and Attractions

Table 4.8 Zone-to-Zone Trips: Singly Constrained Gravity Model

Table 4.9 Zone-to-Zone Trips: Doubly Constrained Gravity Model

Which of the results shown for the singly constrained gravity model and for the doubly
constrained gravity model are more likely to be the most accurate?

Solution

Table 4.8 is more likely to be accurate if engineering judgment suggests the occurrence
of travel impedances and thus the friction factors are more accurate than trip attractions.
Table 4.9 is more likely to be accurate if the attractions are more accurate than the
friction factors.

In practice, these judgments must be made based on the quality of the data set. For
example, if local land-use data had been recently used to develop trip attraction rates
whereas friction factors had been borrowed from another area, then the selection of the
doubly constrained gravity model results in Table 4.9 is recommended.
 2 | Principles of Transportation Engineering 58

4.2.3.2 Growth Factor Model

Trip distribution can also be computed when the only data available are the origins and
destinations between each zone for the current or base year and the trip generation values
for each zone for the future year. This method was widely used when O -D data were
available but the gravity model and calibrations for 𝐹 factors had not yet become operational.
Growth factor models are used primarily to distribute trips between zones in the study area
and zones in cities external to the study area. Since they rely upon an existing O-D matrix,
they cannot be used to forecast traffic between zones where no traffic currently exists.
Further, the only measure of travel friction is the amount of current travel. Thus, the growth
factor method cannot reflect changes in travel time between zones, as does the gravity model.

The most popular growth factor model is the Fratar method, which is a mathematical formula
that proportions future trip generation estimates to each zone as a function of the product of
the current trips between the two zones 𝑇𝑖𝑗 and the growth factor of the attracting zone 𝐺𝑗 .
Thus,

Eq. 4.4

where,
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = number of trips estimated from zone 𝑖 to zone 𝑗
𝑡𝑖 = present trip generation in zone 𝑖
𝐺𝑥 = growth factor of zone 𝑥
𝑇𝑖 = 𝑡𝑖 𝐺𝑖 = future trip generation in zone 𝑖
𝑡𝑖𝑥 = number of trips between zone 𝑖 and other zones 𝑥
𝑡𝑖𝑗 = present trips between zone 𝑖 and zone 𝑗
𝐺𝑗 = growth factor of zone 𝑗

The following example illustrates the application of the growth factor method.

S AMPLE PROBLEM 4.6 Forecasting Trips Using the Fratar Model

A study area consists of four zones (A, B, C, and D). An O-D survey indicates that the
number of trips between each zone is as shown in Table 4.10. Planning estimates for the
area indicate that in five years the number of trips in each zone will increase by the
growth factor shown in Table 4.11 and that trip generation will be increased to the
amounts shown in the last column of the table.

Determine the number of trips between each zone for future conditions.
 2 | Principles of Transportation Engineering 59

Solution

Using the Fratar formula ( Eq. 4.4), calculate the number of trips between zones A and
B, A and C, A and D, and so forth. Note that two values are obtained for each zone
pair (that is, 𝑇𝐴𝐵 and 𝑇𝐵𝐴 ). These values are averaged, yielding a value for 𝑇𝐴𝐵 = (𝑇𝐴𝐵 +
𝑇𝐵𝐴 )/2.

Table 4.10 Present Trips between Zones

Table 4.11 Present Trip Generation and Growth Factors

The calculations are as follows.

The results of the preceding calculations have produced the first estimate (or iteration)
of future trip distribution and are shown in Table 4.12. The totals for each zone do not
equal the values of future trip generation. For example, the trip generation in zone A is
estimated as 693 trips, whereas the actual value is 720 trips. Similarly, the estimate for
zone B is 800 trips, whereas the actual value is 770 trips.
 2 | Principles of Transportation Engineering 60

Proceed with a second iteration in which the input data are the numbers of trips between
zones as previously calculated. Also, new growth factors are computed as the ratio of
the trip generation expected to occur in five years and the trip generation estimated in
the preceding calculation. The values are given in Table 4.13.

Table 4.12 First Estimate of Trips between Zones

Table 4.13 Growth Factors for Second Iteration

The calculations for the second iteration are left to the reader to complete and the
process can be repeated as many times as needed until the estimate and actual trip
generation values are close in agreement.

A more general form of growth factor model than the Fratar method is the average growth
factor model. Rather than weighting the growth of trips between zones 𝑖 and 𝑗 by the growth
across all zones, as is done in the Fratar method, the growth rate of trips between any zones
𝑖 and 𝑗 is simply the average of the growth rates of these zones.

Eq. 4.5

Application of the average growth factor method proceeds similarly to that of the Fratar
method. As iterations continue, the growth factors converge toward unity. Iterations can
cease when an acceptable degree of convergence in the values is reached; one such practice
is to continue until all growth factors are within 5 percent of unity (i.e., between 0.95 and
1.05).
 2 | Principles of Transportation Engineering 61

Video Lessons:

Cross Class Example

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnxwFnUgFhE

Lecture 02 Trip Generation and Trip Distribution

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6JsaC5Hxuk
Gravity Model
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvRquOvDbPw

Mod-05 Lec-26 Trip Distribution Analysis Contd.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZP4T-X2QJ0&feature=emb_logo

P OST – ASSESSMENT

Compute the following showing complete solution:

1. The following socioeconomic data have been collected for the Jeffersonville
Transportation Study (JTS).

Population = 72,173
Area = 70 square miles
Registered vehicles = 26,685
Single-family housing units = 15,675
Apartment units = 7567
Retail employment = 5502
Nonretail employment = 27,324
Student attendance = 28,551 by zone of attendance
Average household income = $17,500
Total traffic zones = 129

The results of the cross-classification analysis are as follows.

Total trips produced for study area = 282,150 trips/day

Home-to-work trips 13% (36,680)
Home-to-nonwork trips 62% (174,933)
Non-home trips 25% (70,537)

The attraction rates for the study area have been developed using the following
assumptions.

100% of home-to-work trips go to employment locations.

Home-to-nonwork trips are divided into the following types.
Visit friends 10%
 2 | Principles of Transportation Engineering 62

Shopping 60%
School 10%
Nonretail employment 20%

Non-home trips are divided into the following types.

Other employment area (nonretail) 60%
Shopping 40%

Determine the number of home-to-work, home-to-nonwork, and non-home-based

trips attracted to a zone with the following characteristics.

Population = 1920
Dwelling units = 800
Retail employment = 50
Nonretail employment = 820
School attendance = 0

2. A small town has been divided into three traffic zones. An origin-destination survey
was conducted earlier this year and yielded the number of trips between each zone as
shown in the table below. Travel times between zones were also determined. Provide
a trip distribution calculation using the gravity model for two iterations. Assume
𝐾𝑖𝑗 = 1.

The following table shows the number of productions and attractions in each zone.

The survey’s results for the zones’ travel time in minutes were as follows.

The following table shows travel time versus friction factor.

3. For the travel pattern in the figure on the next page, develop the Fratar method of trip
distribution for two iterations.
 2 | Principles of Transportation Engineering 63

Evaluation Criteria:

Quality/Craftmanship 40%
Creativity/Originality 30%
Effort/Perseverance 20%
Timeliness 10%
Total 100%

4.3 References

Garber, N.J. and L.A. Hoel. (2009). Traffic and Highway Engineering – 4th Edition. Cengage
Learning.
http://civilcafe.weebly.com/uploads/2/8/9/8/28985467/traffic_and_highway_engineeri
ng_4th_edition.pdf

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine 2012. Travel Demand

Forecasting: Parameters and Techniques. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
https://doi.org/10.17226/14665.

Transportation Engineering: Online Lab Manual

https://www.webpages.uidaho.edu/niatt_labmanual/index.htm

4.4 Acknowledgment

The images, tables, figures, and information contained in this module were taken from the
references cited above.
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