Scenario 3:

Q1:

The base rate fallacy is the bias of the overall rate of an event occurring. The base rate of the event
occurring is ignored to favour the individuating information. The test has a 1/500 chance of a false
positive. That is the base rate. This means that in 2000 athletes and 10 tests each 40 tests would
result in a false positive.

Q2:

No. Since each athlete’s blood was tested 10 times the chance of a false positive increases. It goes to
1/500 x 10 = 2%. There is a 2% chance for each athlete to have a false positive. As above 40 tests
would result in a false positive. Assuming if the 20 athletes that were caught all had 10/10 positive
matches, then ,40/200, 20% of the positive tests were false positives.

Q3:

A major issue is that only one blood sample was taken from each athlete. Another issue is concluding
a positive result from only one test. A solution to these issues is simple. Before the event, blood
samples should be taken regularly. This may be an issue itself due to that amount of time it takes. A
compromise can be in place where two separate samples are taken in the first sitting. The blood can
be tested multiple times however, multiple results need to be positive before declaring the athlete
has used blood doping.