Price Absolute

t Month MA(12) Error Squared Error

(in Php/Metric Ton) Percent Error
1 Aug-13 20,999.86
2 Sep-13 19,455.59
3 Oct-13 18,958.63
4 Nov-13 19,074.15
5 Dec-13 19,892.73
6 Jan-14 20,209.00
7 Feb-14 20,616.09
8 Mar-14 18,903.00
9 Apr-14 17,633.42
10 May-14 17,048.25
11 Jun-14 17,396.98
12 Jul-14 18,339.30
13 Aug-14 19,476.46 19,043.92 432.54 187,093.74 2.22
14 Sep-14 19,049.43 18,916.97 132.46 17,546.53 0.70
15 Oct-14 19,174.52 18,883.12 291.40 84,913.96 1.52
16 Nov-14 18,791.33 18,901.11 - 109.78 12,051.83 0.58
17 Dec-14 18,679.49 18,877.54 - 198.05 39,224.79 1.06
18 Jan-15 18,733.85 18,776.44 - 42.59 1,813.84 0.23
19 Feb-15 18,572.33 18,653.51 - 81.18 6,590.19 0.44
20 Mar-15 18,222.75 18,483.20 - 260.45 67,832.47 1.43
21 Apr-15 17,722.07 18,426.51 - 704.44 496,234.54 3.97
22 May-15 16,998.60 18,433.90 - 1,435.30 2,060,076.52 8.44
23 Jun-15 16,913.66 18,429.76 - 1,516.10 2,298,556.68 8.96
24 Jul-15 17,745.75 18,389.48 - 643.73 414,391.53 3.63
25 Aug-15 17,210.97 18,340.02 - 1,129.05 1,274,753.90 6.56
26 Sep-15 16,686.86 18,151.23 - 1,464.37 2,144,377.06 8.78
27 Oct-15 17,300.34 17,954.35 - 654.01 427,726.90 3.78
28 Nov-15 17,298.90 17,798.17 - 499.27 249,267.20 2.89
29 Dec-15 17,144.61 17,673.80 - 529.19 280,039.41 3.09
30 Jan-16 17,527.50 17,545.89 - 18.39 338.22 0.10
31 Feb-16 18,293.74 17,445.36 848.38 719,745.80 4.64
32 Mar-16 17,953.82 17,422.15 531.67 282,677.42 2.96
33 Apr-16 18,282.39 17,399.74 882.65 779,079.85 4.83
34 May-16 20,276.46 17,446.43 2,830.03 8,009,079.23 13.96
35 Jun-16 20,478.39 17,719.58 2,758.81 7,611,014.22 13.47
36 Jul-16 20,801.78 18,016.64 2,785.14 7,756,981.61 13.39
37 Aug-16 19,376.79 18,271.31 1,105.48 1,222,078.66 5.71
38 Sep-16 18,211.87 18,451.80 - 239.93 57,565.61 1.32
39 Oct-16 17,840.59 18,578.88 - 738.29 545,075.82 4.14
40 Nov-16 17,923.15 18,623.90 - 700.75 491,055.23 3.91
41 Dec-16 18,580.00 18,675.92 - 95.92 9,201.45 0.52
42 Jan-17 18,743.33 18,795.54 - 52.21 2,725.88 0.28
43 Feb-17 18,329.54 18,896.86 - 567.32 321,851.04 3.10
44 Mar-17 18,602.86 18,899.84 - 296.98 88,198.61 1.60
45 Apr-17 18,944.35 18,953.93 - 9.58 91.76 0.05
46 May-17 20,991.62 19,009.09 1,982.53 3,930,415.29 9.44
47 Jun-17 22,816.50 19,068.69 3,747.81 14,046,086.04 16.43
48 Jul-17 21,124.62 19,263.53 1,861.09 3,463,649.78 8.81
49 Aug-17 19,988.04 19,290.44 697.60 486,652.74 3.49
50 Sep-17 20,502.18 19,341.37 1,160.81 1,347,474.05 5.66
51 Oct-17 20,231.16 19,532.23 698.93 488,500.82 3.45
52 Nov-17 20,536.06 19,731.45 804.61 647,403.96 3.92
53 Dec-17 20,460.26 19,949.19 511.07 261,194.25 2.50
54 Jan-18 22,308.44 20,105.88 2,202.56 4,851,285.24 9.87
55 Feb-18 22,003.71 20,402.97 1,600.74 2,562,371.22 7.27
 56 Mar-18 22,388.06 20,709.15 1,678.91 2,818,738.79 7.50
57 Apr-18 23,496.47 21,024.58 2,471.89 6,110,223.69 10.52
58 May-18 23,531.04 21,403.93 2,127.11 4,524,611.13 9.04
59 Jun-18 22,651.34 21,615.55 1,035.79 1,072,871.28 4.57
60 Jul-18 21,266.31 21,601.78 - 335.47 112,541.24 1.58
61 Aug-18 21,575.78 21,613.59 - 37.81 1,429.53 0.18
62 Sep-18 21,856.42 21,745.90 110.52 12,214.49 0.51
63 Oct-18 22,084.44 21,858.75 225.69 50,934.10 1.02
64 Nov-18 21,195.92 22,013.19 - 817.27 667,937.06 3.86
65 Dec-18 21,324.43 22,068.18 - 743.75 553,167.78 3.49
66 Jan-19 21,512.10 22,140.20 - 628.10 394,505.42 2.92
67 Feb-19 21,284.86 22,073.83 - 788.97 622,481.55 3.71
68 Mar-19 21,279.85 22,013.93 - 734.08 538,874.67 3.45
69 Apr-19 21,522.35 21,921.58 - 399.23 159,384.59 1.85
70 May-19 21,373.20 21,757.07 - 383.87 147,356.18 1.80
71 Jun-19 21,757.24 21,577.25 179.99 32,396.40 0.83
72 Jul-19 21,278.17 21,502.74 - 224.57 50,432.43 1.06
73 Aug-19 22,383.54 21,503.73 879.81 774,065.64 3.93
74 Sep-19 22,248.41 21,571.04 677.37 458,825.60 3.04
75 Oct-19 21,846.62 21,603.71 242.91 59,005.67 1.11
76 Nov-19 21,351.25 21,583.89 - 232.64 54,121.76 1.09
77 Dec-19 21,929.46 21,596.84 332.62 110,639.39 1.52
78 Jan-20 22,926.86 21,647.25 1,279.61 1,637,391.09 5.58
79 Feb-20 22,841.53 21,765.15 1,076.38 1,158,592.11 4.71
80 Mar-20 25,146.37 21,894.87 3,251.50 10,572,230.57 12.93
81 Apr-20 28,614.48 22,217.08 6,397.40 40,926,684.11 22.36
82 May-20 25,783.35 22,808.09 2,975.26 8,852,147.27 11.54
83 Jun-20 26,050.56 23,175.61 2,874.95 8,265,356.67 11.04
84 Jul-20 23,733.07 23,533.38 199.69 39,874.76 0.84
85 Aug-20 24,665.88 23,737.96 927.92 861,038.62 3.76
86 Sep-20 24,589.65 23,928.15 661.50 437,577.84 2.69
87 Oct-20 22,834.93 24,123.26 - 1,288.33 1,659,785.60 5.64
88 Nov-20 23,604.13 24,205.62 - 601.49 361,785.21 2.55
89 Dec-20 24,994.22 24,393.36 600.86 361,037.75 2.40
90 Jan-21 26,193.28 24,648.75 1,544.53 2,385,565.20 5.90
91 Feb-21 26,855.36 24,920.95 1,934.41 3,741,925.93 7.20
92 Mar-21 25,501.51 25,255.44 246.07 60,550.44 0.96
93 Apr-21 23,988.17 25,285.04 - 1,296.87 1,681,858.83 5.41
94 May-21 23,637.47 24,899.51 - 1,262.04 1,592,742.86 5.34
95 Jun-21 22,426.12 24,720.69 - 2,294.57 5,265,032.36 10.23
96 Jul-21 20,711.36 24,418.65 - 3,707.29 13,743,992.97 17.90
97 Aug-21 20,234.23 24,166.84 - 3,932.61 15,465,421.41 19.44
98 Sep-21 20,081.39 23,797.54 - 3,716.15 13,809,739.85 18.51
99 Oct-21 20,355.66 23,421.85 - 3,066.19 9,401,505.79 15.06
100 Nov-21 20,132.02 23,215.24 - 3,083.22 9,506,255.85 15.32
101 Dec-21 20,086.49 22,925.90 - 2,839.41 8,062,244.42 14.14
102 Jan-22 21,881.00 22,516.92 - 635.92 404,396.37 2.91
103 Feb-22 21,896.96 22,157.57 - 260.60 67,914.97 1.19
104 Mar-22 21,975.21 21,744.36 230.85 53,289.41 1.05
105 Apr-22 22,401.66 21,450.51 951.15 904,692.66 4.25
106 May-22 24,296.36 21,318.30 2,978.06 8,868,856.25 12.26
107 Jun-22 23,796.90 21,373.20 2,423.70 5,874,297.45 10.18
108 Jul-22 23,376.40 21,487.44 1,888.96 3,568,182.47 8.08
109 Aug-22 24,028.29 21,709.52 2,318.77 5,376,678.85 9.65
110 Sep-22 25,253.04 22,025.69 3,227.35 10,415,755.75 12.78
111 Oct-22 25,349.17 22,456.67 2,892.50 8,366,580.35 11.41
112 Nov-22 25,390.72 22,872.79 2,517.93 6,339,963.09 9.92
 113 Dec-22 26,012.19 23,311.02 2,701.17 7,296,337.38 10.38
114 Jan-23 28,442.13 23,804.82 4,637.31 21,504,597.66 16.30
115 Feb-23 26,940.44 24,351.59 2,588.85 6,702,165.90 9.61
116 Mar-23 26,090.62 24,771.88 1,318.74 1,739,086.18 5.05
117 Apr-23 27,713.07 25,114.83 2,598.24 6,750,868.42 9.38
118 May-23 28,418.66 25,557.44 2,861.22 8,186,556.04 10.07
119 Jun-23 28,725.09 25,900.97 2,824.12 7,975,658.48 9.83

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD): 518.32

Mean Square Error (MSE): 3,392,615.65
Mean Average Absolute Percent Error (MAPE): 6.05
 Absolute
MA(6) Error Squared Error MA(3) Error Squared Error
Percent Error

19,804.69 - 730.54 533,693.56

19,162.79 729.94 532,812.40
19,308.50 900.50 810,894.25
19,764.99 851.10 724,365.54 4.13 19,725.29 890.80 793,518.70
19,701.03 - 798.03 636,854.54 4.22 20,239.27 - 1,336.27 1,785,626.42
19,608.93 - 1,975.51 3,902,652.93 11.20 19,909.36 - 2,275.94 5,179,918.06
19,388.07 - 2,339.81 5,474,734.23 13.72 19,050.84 - 2,002.59 4,010,353.36
19,050.41 - 1,653.43 2,733,847.30 9.50 17,861.56 - 464.58 215,831.48
18,634.46 - 295.16 87,117.46 1.61 17,359.55 979.75 959,910.06
18,322.84 1,153.62 1,330,839.10 5.92 17,594.84 1,881.62 3,540,481.28
18,132.90 916.53 840,024.19 4.81 18,404.25 645.18 416,261.53
18,157.31 1,017.21 1,034,722.97 5.31 18,955.06 219.46 48,161.23
18,414.16 377.17 142,259.72 2.01 19,233.47 - 442.14 195,487.78
18,704.67 - 25.18 634.03 0.13 19,005.09 - 325.60 106,017.53
18,918.42 - 184.57 34,066.70 0.99 18,881.78 - 147.93 21,883.28
18,984.18 - 411.85 169,620.42 2.22 18,734.89 - 162.56 26,425.75
18,833.49 - 610.74 373,005.38 3.35 18,661.89 - 439.14 192,843.94
18,695.71 - 973.64 947,978.10 5.49 18,509.64 - 787.57 620,271.76
18,453.64 - 1,455.04 2,117,131.70 8.56 18,172.38 - 1,173.78 1,377,767.31
18,154.85 - 1,241.19 1,540,548.48 7.34 17,647.81 - 734.15 538,971.33
17,860.54 - 114.79 13,177.51 0.65 17,211.44 534.31 285,483.61
17,695.86 - 484.89 235,118.31 2.82 17,219.34 - 8.37 70.00
17,468.97 - 782.11 611,690.84 4.69 17,290.13 - 603.27 363,930.67
17,212.99 87.35 7,630.90 0.50 17,214.53 85.81 7,363.93
17,142.70 156.20 24,399.48 0.90 17,066.06 232.84 54,216.02
17,192.75 - 48.14 2,317.14 0.28 17,095.37 49.24 2,424.91
17,231.24 296.26 87,770.98 1.69 17,247.95 279.55 78,148.20
17,194.86 1,098.88 1,207,529.93 6.01 17,323.67 970.07 941,035.80
17,375.33 578.49 334,656.47 3.22 17,655.28 298.54 89,124.14
17,586.49 695.90 484,283.77 3.81 17,925.02 357.37 127,713.32
17,750.16 2,526.30 6,382,191.69 12.46 18,176.65 2,099.81 4,409,202.04
18,246.42 2,231.97 4,981,690.08 10.90 18,837.56 1,640.83 2,692,334.03
18,802.05 1,999.73 3,998,920.07 9.61 19,679.08 1,122.70 1,260,455.29
19,347.76 29.03 842.55 0.15 20,518.88 - 1,142.09 1,304,361.95
19,528.27 - 1,316.40 1,732,913.35 7.23 20,218.99 - 2,007.12 4,028,517.31
19,571.28 - 1,730.69 2,995,287.88 9.70 19,463.48 - 1,622.89 2,633,771.95
19,497.65 - 1,574.50 2,479,039.75 8.78 18,476.42 - 553.27 306,104.00
19,105.43 - 525.43 276,074.93 2.83 17,991.87 588.13 345,896.90
18,789.03 - 45.70 2,088.49 0.24 18,114.58 628.75 395,326.56
18,445.95 - 116.41 13,552.45 0.64 18,415.49 - 85.95 7,387.98
18,271.41 331.45 109,856.89 1.78 18,550.96 51.90 2,693.96
18,336.58 607.77 369,386.40 3.21 18,558.58 385.77 148,821.06
18,520.54 2,471.08 6,106,244.60 11.77 18,625.58 2,366.04 5,598,129.51
19,031.95 3,784.55 14,322,818.70 16.59 19,512.94 3,303.56 10,913,486.65
19,738.03 1,386.59 1,922,622.58 6.56 20,917.49 207.13 42,902.84
20,134.91 - 146.87 21,572.27 0.73 21,644.25 - 1,656.21 2,743,020.52
20,411.33 90.85 8,253.42 0.44 21,309.72 - 807.54 652,120.85
20,727.89 - 496.72 246,735.73 2.46 20,538.28 - 307.12 94,322.69
20,942.35 - 406.29 165,074.27 1.98 20,240.46 295.60 87,379.36
20,866.43 - 406.17 164,971.36 1.99 20,423.13 37.13 1,378.39
20,473.72 1,834.72 3,366,197.48 8.22 20,409.16 1,899.28 3,607,264.52
20,671.02 1,332.69 1,776,053.75 6.06 21,101.59 902.12 813,826.51
21,006.97 1,381.09 1,907,414.19 6.17 21,590.80 797.26 635,618.19
21,321.28 2,175.19 4,731,444.29 9.26 22,233.40 1,263.07 1,595,337.40
21,865.50 1,665.54 2,774,023.49 7.08 22,629.41 901.63 812,930.65
22,364.66 286.68 82,183.51 1.27 23,138.52 - 487.18 237,347.60
22,729.84 - 1,463.53 2,141,929.82 6.88 23,226.28 - 1,959.97 3,841,495.47
22,556.16 - 980.38 961,135.14 4.54 22,482.90 - 907.12 822,860.65
22,484.83 - 628.41 394,903.32 2.88 21,831.14 25.28 638.91
22,396.23 - 311.79 97,210.93 1.41 21,566.17 518.27 268,603.79
22,160.89 - 964.97 931,163.88 4.55 21,838.88 - 642.96 413,397.56
21,771.70 - 447.27 200,051.94 2.10 21,712.26 - 387.83 150,412.11
21,550.55 - 38.45 1,478.40 0.18 21,534.93 - 22.83 521.21
21,591.52 - 306.65 94,037.29 1.44 21,344.15 - 59.29 3,515.30
21,543.03 - 263.18 69,262.84 1.24 21,373.80 - 93.95 8,825.98
21,446.93 75.42 5,687.67 0.35 21,358.94 163.41 26,703.92
21,353.25 19.95 397.94 0.09 21,362.35 10.85 117.65
21,382.80 374.44 140,206.56 1.72 21,391.80 365.44 133,546.39
21,454.93 - 176.76 31,245.28 0.83 21,550.93 - 272.76 74,398.02
21,415.95 967.60 936,240.08 4.32 21,469.54 914.00 835,402.09
21,599.06 649.35 421,657.59 2.92 21,806.32 442.09 195,446.52
21,760.49 86.13 7,419.24 0.39 21,970.04 - 123.42 15,232.50
21,814.53 - 463.28 214,628.36 2.17 22,159.52 - 808.27 653,305.78
21,810.87 118.59 14,063.19 0.54 21,815.43 114.03 13,003.60
21,839.57 1,087.29 1,182,188.67 4.74 21,709.11 1,217.75 1,482,915.06
22,114.36 727.17 528,781.06 3.18 22,069.19 772.34 596,509.08
22,190.69 2,955.68 8,736,054.11 11.75 22,565.95 2,580.42 6,658,567.38
22,673.68 5,940.80 35,293,084.84 20.76 23,638.25 4,976.23 24,762,831.84
23,801.66 1,981.69 3,927,101.86 7.69 25,534.13 249.22 62,112.27
24,540.34 1,510.22 2,280,759.41 5.80 26,514.73 - 464.17 215,456.88
25,227.19 - 1,494.12 2,232,399.55 6.30 26,816.13 - 3,083.06 9,505,258.96
25,361.56 - 695.68 483,970.66 2.82 25,188.99 - 523.11 273,647.56
25,665.62 - 1,075.97 1,157,707.85 4.38 24,816.50 - 226.85 51,462.43
25,572.83 - 2,737.90 7,496,105.54 11.99 24,329.53 - 1,494.60 2,233,839.12
24,609.57 - 1,005.44 1,010,916.30 4.26 24,030.15 - 426.02 181,495.88
24,246.37 747.85 559,279.62 2.99 23,676.24 1,317.98 1,737,080.07
24,070.31 2,122.97 4,506,987.47 8.11 23,811.09 2,382.19 5,674,813.31
24,480.35 2,375.01 5,640,680.42 8.84 24,930.54 1,924.82 3,704,919.20
24,845.26 656.25 430,661.88 2.57 26,014.29 - 512.78 262,939.91
24,997.24 - 1,009.07 1,018,218.90 4.21 26,183.38 - 2,195.21 4,818,961.58
25,189.44 - 1,551.97 2,408,626.40 6.57 25,448.35 - 1,810.88 3,279,274.30
25,195.00 - 2,768.88 7,666,705.68 12.35 24,375.72 - 1,949.60 3,800,927.16
24,766.99 - 4,055.63 16,448,094.14 19.58 23,350.59 - 2,639.23 6,965,517.40
23,853.33 - 3,619.10 13,097,896.87 17.89 22,258.32 - 2,024.09 4,096,926.83
22,749.81 - 2,668.42 7,120,465.30 13.29 21,123.90 - 1,042.51 1,086,834.05
21,846.46 - 1,490.80 2,222,474.70 7.32 20,342.33 13.33 177.78
21,241.04 - 1,109.02 1,229,921.66 5.51 20,223.76 - 91.74 8,416.23
20,656.80 - 570.31 325,249.69 2.84 20,189.69 - 103.20 10,650.24
20,266.86 1,614.14 2,605,453.32 7.38 20,191.39 1,689.61 2,854,781.95
20,461.80 1,435.16 2,059,689.01 6.55 20,699.84 1,197.12 1,433,104.28
20,738.92 1,236.29 1,528,412.96 5.63 21,288.15 687.06 472,051.44
21,054.56 1,347.10 1,814,687.39 6.01 21,917.72 483.94 234,194.70
21,395.56 2,900.80 8,414,659.98 11.94 22,091.28 2,205.08 4,862,392.51
22,089.61 1,707.29 2,914,827.76 7.17 22,891.08 905.82 820,515.91
22,708.02 668.39 446,738.51 2.86 23,498.31 - 121.91 14,861.24
22,957.25 1,071.04 1,147,130.25 4.46 23,823.22 205.07 42,053.70
23,312.47 1,940.57 3,765,811.92 7.68 23,733.86 1,519.18 2,307,897.74
23,858.78 1,490.39 2,221,277.26 5.88 24,219.24 1,129.93 1,276,734.27
24,350.03 1,040.69 1,083,042.61 4.10 24,876.83 513.89 264,079.51
24,532.42 1,479.77 2,189,719.25 5.69 25,330.98 681.21 464,051.61
24,901.64 3,540.50 12,535,104.85 12.45 25,584.03 2,858.10 8,168,754.66
25,745.92 1,194.52 1,426,870.07 4.43 26,615.01 325.43 105,902.52
26,231.28 - 140.66 19,785.70 0.54 27,131.59 - 1,040.97 1,083,611.60
26,370.88 1,342.19 1,801,478.47 4.84 27,157.73 555.34 308,402.52
26,764.86 1,653.80 2,735,048.93 5.82 26,914.71 1,503.95 2,261,865.60
27,269.52 1,455.57 2,118,688.88 5.07 27,407.45 1,317.64 1,736,175.17

268.05 155.00
2,415,463.50 1,624,930.20
5.36
 Absolute
Percent Error

35,000.00
3.83
3.67
4.46
30,000.00
4.32
7.07
12.91
11.75 25,000.00
2.67
5.34
rpice per metric ton (in php)

9.66
3.39 20,000.00
1.14
2.35
1.74
15,000.00
0.79
0.88
2.41
4.44 10,000.00
6.91
4.34
3.01
0.05 5,000.00
3.62
0.50
1.35 -
0.29 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7
- 1 t- 1 c - 1 b- 1 r - 1 n- 1 g- 1 t- 1 c - 1 b- 1 r - 1 n- 1 g- 1 t- 1 c - 1 b- 1 r - 1 n- 1 g- 1 t- 1 c - 1 b- 1 r - 1 n-
ug Oc e e Ap J u u Oc e e Ap J u u Oc e e Ap J u u Oc e e Ap J u
1.59 A D F A D F A D F A D F

5.30
1.66
1.95
10.36
8.01
5.40
5.89
11.02 35,000.00
9.10
3.09
3.17
30,000.00
3.35
0.47
0.28
2.04 25,000.00
11.27
14.48
rpice per metric ton (in php)

0.98
8.29 20,000.00
3.94
1.52
1.44 15,000.00
0.18
8.51
4.10
10,000.00

5,000.00
 rpice per met
15,000.00

3.56 10,000.00
5.38
3.83
2.15
5,000.00
9.22
4.20
0.12
2.35 -
3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7
3.03 - 1 t- 1 c - 1 b- 1 r - 1 n- 1 g- 1 t- 1 c - 1 b- 1 r - 1 n- 1 g- 1 t- 1 c - 1 b- 1 r - 1 n- 1 g- 1 t- 1 c - 1 b- 1 r - 1 n
ug Oc e e Ap J u u Oc e e Ap J u u Oc e e Ap J u u Oc e e Ap J u
A F A F A F A F
1.82 D D D D

0.11
0.28
0.44
0.76
0.05
1.68
1.28
4.08 35,000.00
1.99
0.56
3.79
30,000.00
0.52
5.31
3.38
10.26 25,000.00
17.39
0.97
rpice per metric ton (in php)

1.78
12.99 20,000.00
2.12
0.92
6.55
15,000.00
1.80
5.27
9.09
7.17 10,000.00
2.01
9.15
7.66
8.69 5,000.00
12.74
10.00
5.19 -
0.07 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7
- 1 t- 1 c - 1 b- 1 r - 1 n- 1 g- 1 t- 1 c - 1 b- 1 r - 1 n- 1 g- 1 t- 1 c - 1 b- 1 r - 1 n- 1 g- 1 t- 1 c - 1 b- 1 r - 1 n
ug Oc e e Ap J u u Oc e e Ap J u u Oc e e Ap J u u Oc e e Ap J u
0.46 A D F A D F A D F A D F

0.51
7.72
5.47
3.13
2.16
9.08
3.81
0.52
0.85
6.02
4.46
2.02
 2.62
10.05
1.21
3.99
2.00
5.29
4.59

4.33
 MONTHLY prices of rice
(in php/metric ton)

5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3
- 1 b- 1 r - 1 n- 1 g- 1 t- 1 c - 1 b- 1 r - 1 n- 1 g- 1 t- 1 c - 1 b- 1 r - 1 n- 1 g- 1 t- 1 c - 1 b- 1 r - 1 n- 1 g- 1 t- 1 c - 1 b- 2 r - 2 n- 2 g- 2 t- 2 c - 2 b- 2 r - 2 n- 2 g- 2 t- 2 c - 2 b- 2 r - 2 n- 2 g- 2 t- 2 c - 2 b- 2
e Ap J u u Oc e e Ap J u u Oc e e Ap J u u Oc e e Ap J u u Oc e e Ap J u u Oc e e Ap J u u Oc e e Ap J u u Oc e e Ap
F A D F A D F A D F A D F A D F A D F A D F

month and year

MONTHLY prices of rice

(in php/metric ton)
 15 - 16 - 16 - 16 - 16 - 16 - 16 - 17 - 17 - 17 - 17 - 17 - 17 - 18 - 18 - 18 - 18 - 18 - 18 - 19 - 19 - 19 - 19 - 19 - 19 - 20 - 20 - 20 - 20 - 20 - 20 - 21 - 21 - 21 - 21 - 21 - 21 - 22 - 22 - 22 - 22 - 22 - 22 - 23
c- r
eb Ap J un ug Oc
t r
ec eb Ap J un ug Oc
t r
ec eb Ap J un ug Oc
t r
ec eb Ap J un ug Oc
t r
ec eb Ap J un ug Oc
t r
ec eb Ap J un ug Oc
t r
ec eb Ap J un ug Oc
t
ec eb A
F A D F A D F A D F A D F A D F A D F A D F

month and year

MONTHLY prices of rice

(in php/metric ton)

15 - 16 - 16 - 16 - 16 - 16 - 16 - 17 - 17 - 17 - 17 - 17 - 17 - 18 - 18 - 18 - 18 - 18 - 18 - 19 - 19 - 19 - 19 - 19 - 19 - 20 - 20 - 20 - 20 - 20 - 20 - 21 - 21 - 21 - 21 - 21 - 21 - 22 - 22 - 22 - 22 - 22 - 22 - 23
c- r t r
ec eb Ap J un ug Oc
t r
ec eb Ap J un ug Oc
t r
ec eb Ap J un ug Oc
t r
ec eb Ap J un ug Oc
t r
ec eb Ap J un ug Oc
t r
ec eb Ap J un ug Oc
t
ec eb A
eb Ap J un ug Oc
F A D F A D F A D F A D F A D F A D F A D F

month and year

 Price
(in Php/Metric Ton)
MA(3)

21 - 22 - 22 - 22 - 22 - 22 - 22 - 23 - 23 - 23
r t r
eb Ap J un ug Oc ec eb Ap J un
F A D F

Price
(in Php/Metric Ton)
MA(6)
 (in Php/Metric Ton)
MA(6)

1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3
- 2 b- 2 r - 2 n- 2 g- 2 t- 2 c - 2 b- 2 r - 2 n- 2
e Ap J u u Oc e e Ap J u
F A D F

Price
(in Php/Metric Ton)
MA(12)

1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3
- 2 b- 2 r - 2 n- 2 g- 2 t- 2 c - 2 b- 2 r - 2 n- 2
e Ap J u u Oc e e Ap J u
F A D F
 a.k.a. Yt
Price
t Quarter Month
(in Php/Metric Ton) MA(3)
119 2 Jun-23 ₱28,725.09 ₱27,407.45
120 3 Jul-23 ₱28,285.61 ₱28,285.61
121 3 Aug-23 ₱28,476.45 ₱28,476.45
122 3 Sep-23 ₱28,495.72

Please see calculations for these error metrics in Task 2 sheet:

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD): 168.03
Mean Square Error (MSE): 1,624,930.20
Mean Average Absolute Percent Error (MAPE): 4.33 %