SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGES EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

Absolute Price Absolute Price Absolute

Price
t Month MA(3) Error Squared Error Percent t Month (in Php/Metric WMA Error Squared Error Percent t Month (in Php/Metric MA(3) Error Squared Error Percent
(in Php/Metric Ton)
Error Ton) Error Ton) Error
1 Jan-22 21881.00 1 Jan-22 21881.00 1 Jan-22 21881.00
2 Feb-22 21897.00 2 Feb-22 21897.00 2 Feb-22 21897.00
3 Mar-22 21975.00 3 Mar-22 21975.00 3 Mar-22 21975.00
4 Apr-22 22402.00 21,917.67 484.33 234,575.55 2.16 4 Apr-22 22402.00 21933.33 468.67 219,651.57 2.09 4 Apr-22 22402.00 21917.67 484.33 219,651.57 2.16
5 May-22 24296.00 22,091.33 2,204.67 4,860,569.81 9.07 5 May-22 24296.00 22175.50 2,120.50 4,496,520.25 8.73 5 May-22 24296.00 22091.33 2,204.67 4,496,520.25 9.07
6 Jun-22 23797.00 22,891.00 906.00 820,836.00 3.81 6 Jun-22 23797.00 23277.83 519.17 269,537.49 2.18 6 Jun-22 23797.00 22891.00 906.00 269,537.49 3.81
7 Jul-22 23376.00 23,498.33 - 122.33 14,964.63 0.52 7 Jul-22 23376.00 23730.83 - 354.83 125,904.33 1.52 7 Jul-22 23376.00 23498.33 - 122.33 125,904.33 0.52
8 Aug-22 24028.00 23,823.00 205.00 42,025.00 0.85 8 Aug-22 24028.00 23669.67 358.33 128,400.39 1.49 8 Aug-22 24028.00 23823.00 205.00 128,400.39 0.85
9 Sep-22 25253.00 23,733.67 1,519.33 2,308,363.65 6.02 9 Sep-22 25253.00 23772.17 1,480.83 2,192,857.49 5.86 9 Sep-22 25253.00 23733.67 1,519.33 2,192,857.49 6.02
10 Oct-22 25349.00 24,219.00 1,130.00 1,276,900.00 4.46 10 Oct-22 25349.00 24531.83 817.17 667,766.81 3.22 10 Oct-22 25349.00 24219.00 1,130.00 667,766.81 4.46
11 Nov-22 25391.00 24,876.67 514.33 264,535.35 2.03 11 Nov-22 25391.00 25096.83 294.17 86,535.99 1.16 11 Nov-22 25391.00 24876.67 514.33 86,535.99 2.03
12 Dec-22 26012.00 25,331.00 681.00 463,761.00 2.62 12 Dec-22 26012.00 25354.00 658.00 432,964.00 2.53 12 Dec-22 26012.00 25331.00 681.00 432,964.00 2.62

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD): 835.81 Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD): 706.89 Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD): 835.81
Mean Square Error (MSE): 1,142,947.89 Mean Square Error (MSE): 957,793.15 Mean Square Error (MSE): 957,793.15
Mean Average Absolute Percent Error (MAPE): 3.50 Mean Average Absolute Percent Error (MAPE): 3.20 Mean Average Absolute Percent Error (MAPE): 3.50

13 Jan-23 24808.89 Pessimistic: 23940.58 Optimistic: 25677.20 13 Jan-23 25131.25 Pessimistic: 24327.05 Optimistic: 25935.45 13 Jan-23 25467.2 Pessimistic: 24575.85 Optimistic: 26358.55
14 Feb-23 25005.52 Pessimistic: 24130.33 Optimistic: 25880.71 14 Feb-23 25199.76 Pessimistic: 24393.37 Optimistic: 26006.16
15 Mar-23 25048.47 Pessimistic: 24171.77 Optimistic: 25925.17 15 Mar-23 25312.30 Pessimistic: 24502.31 Optimistic: 26122.29

Conclusion:
To determine whether the forecasted values from the three methods (Exponential Smoothing, Simple Moving Average, and Weighted Moving Average) are close or not, a comparison of their center forecasts, which represent the most likely predictions for January 2023 rice prices was done.
The following are the center forecasts for each method:

Exponential Smoothing: Php 25,467.2

Simple Moving Average: Php 24,808.89
Weighted Moving Average: Php 25,131.25

By comparing these center forecasts, we can see that they are relatively close in value, with the Exponential Smoothing forecast being the highest at 25,467.2 and the Simple Moving Average forecast being the lowest at 24,808.89. The Weighted Moving Average forecast falls in between at 25,131.25.

While there are some differences between the forecasts, they are not significantly far apart. Therefore, we can conclude that the forecasted values from these three methods are relatively close to each other for January 2023 rice prices. However, the choice of which forecast to use should consider other factors, such as the method's historical
accuracy and the specific requirements of your forecasting task.