Problem Set No.

3
Rainfall Consistency and Reliability Analysis

Problems
1. Precipitation station X was inoperative for part of a month during which a storm occurred.
The respective storm totals at three surrounding stations, A, B and C were 98, 80 and 110
mm. The normal annual precipitation amounts at station X, A, B, and C are, respectively,
880, 1008, 842 and 1080. Estimate the storm precipitation for station X.

2. The annual precipitation at station X and the average annual precipitation at 15 surrounding
stations are shown in the following table.
a. Determine the consistency of the record at station X
b. In what year is a change in regime indicated?
c. Compute the mean annual precipitation for station X for the entire 30-year period
without adjustment
d. Repeat part (c) for station X at its 1979 site with the data adjusted for the change in
regime.

Annual Precipitation (cm) Annual Precipitation (cm)

Year 15-Station Year 15-Station
Station X Station X
Average Average
1950 2193.8 1736.6 1965 1914.4 1863.6
1951 1609.6 1533.4 1966 1889.0 1711.2
1952 2066.8 1914.4 1967 1711.2 1584.2
1953 1685.8 1660.4 1968 1736.6 1838.2
1954 1635.0 1584.2 1969 1812.8 1838.2
1955 1889.0 1762.0 1970 1990.6 1889.0
1956 1736.6 1660.4 1971 1635.0 1660.4
1957 1914.4 1660.4 1972 1762.0 1736.6
1958 1939.8 1660.4 1973 1584.2 1711.2
1959 1889.0 1711.2 1974 1939.8 1863.6
1960 2473.2 2016.0 1975 1863.6 1838.2
1961 2041.4 1660.4 1976 1762.0 1889.0
1962 1863.6 1609.6 1977 1711.2 1660.4
1963 1508.0 1558.8 1978 1685.8 1635.0
1964 1660.4 1635.0 1979 1863.6 1889.0

3. Plot the 15-station average precipitation in Problem 2 as a time series. Also plot 5-year
moving averages and accumulated annual departure from the 30-year mean. Are there any
apparent cycles or time trends? Discuss.