AB1202 2021 S2

Supplementary Tutorial 2b on Probability

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1. An Art Club has 10 members: 5 Chinese, 3 Malays and 2 Indians. They have to take a photo for the
school magazine. Find the no. of ways to take the photo if all members are to stand:
(a) in a row such that there is a Chinese at each end
(b) in 2 rows, with 4 in front and 6 at the back
(c) in a row so that the Malays are together, while the 2 Indians are NOT next to each other?

2. A committee of 4 people is to be formed from 3 married couples. Find the no. of ways in which the
committee can be chosen if it is to have:
(a) 2 married couples
(b) exactly 1 married couple
(c) no married couple

3. Repeat Q2, this time with 5 married couples, instead of 3.

4. The elevator in The Hive starts with five passengers and stops on seven floors. If every passenger is
equally likely to get off at each floor and all the passengers leave independently of one another,
what is the probability that each of the five passengers gets off on a different floor (i.e., not more
than one passenger gets off on the same floor)?

5. A box contains 24 light bulbs, of which three are detective. If a person selects three bulbs from the
box at random, without replacement. What is the probability that all three bulbs will be detective?

6. Suppose that E is an event such that Pr(E)=0 and that F is any other event, Are E and F independent
events? (Hint: 𝑃𝑟(𝐴|𝐵) = Pr(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) /Pr⁡(𝐵))

7. Suppose that for a given year there is a 2% chance that your desktop computer will crash and a 5%
chance that your laptop computer will crash. And there is a 0.1 % chance that both computers will
crash. Is the reliability of the two computers independent of each other?

8. Amy walks to work and sometimes she bicycles when the weather is nice. In bad weather she takes
the metro or she car pools with friends. Based on the past habits there is 35% probability that Amy
walks, 30% she uses her bike, 20% car pools, and 15% he takes the metro.
If Amy walks, there is a 5% probability of being late to the office; if she cycles there is a 10% chance
of being late; a 45% chance of being late if he car pools because of traffic; and a 20% chance of
being late if she takes the metro.

(1) On any given day, what is the probability of Amy being late to work?
(2) On any given day, what is the probability of Amy being on time to work?
(3) Given that Amy is late one day, what is the probability that she used the bicycle?
(4) Given that Amy takes the metro one day, what is the probability that he will arrive on time?

9. 8 fair dice are rolled. What is the probability that each number will appear at least once?

10. 6 fair dice are rolled. What’s the probability of getting 3 even numbers?
(Hint: Use Binomial)

Thanks to Toh Yi Cheng, Group 1 (2021S1), for his contributions of Q9 and Q10.

Happy head-cracking !!
Answers:
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1 (a) 5(4)(8!) = 806400

(b) 10! = 3628800
(c) 8!(3!) – 7!(3!)(2!) = 181440

2 (a) 3 (b) 3(4)(2)/2 = 12 (c) 6C4 – 12 – 3 = 0

3 (a) 10 (b) 120 (c) 10C4 – 120 – 10 = 80

4 The 1st passenger has a choice among 7 floors; the 2nd has only 6; the 3rd is left with 5 & so on …
Hence, prob = No. of outcomes with restrictions/ No. of outcomes without restrictions
= (7)(6)(5)(4)(3)/75 = 0.1499

5 1/(24C3) = 1/2024 = 0.0004941

6 Since the event E⁡∩⁡F is a subset of the event E, and Pr(E)=0, it follows that Pr(E∩F)=0.
Hence, Pr(E ∩ F) = 0 = Pr(E) ∗ Pr(F) => E and F are independent.

7 Pr(D∩L) = 0.01
Pr(D)*Pr(L) = (0.02)(0.05) = 0.01
Pr(D∩L) = Pr(D)*Pr(L) => the reliability of the 2 computers are independent.

8 (1) Probability of being late = 0.35(0.05) + 0.3(0.1) + 0.2(0.45) + 0.15(0.2) = 0.1675

(2) Probability of not being late is 1 - 0.1675 = 0.8325
P(⁡bicycle⁡∩⁡⁡late) 0.3⁡×0.1
(3) ⁡⁡P(bicycle|⁡given⁡late) = P(Late)
= 0.1675
= 0.1791
P(⁡On⁡time⁡∩⁡⁡Metro) (1−0.2)⁡×0.15
(4) ⁡⁡P(On⁡time⁡|⁡Metro) = P(Metro)
= 0.15
= 0.8

9 [ 6C2 (8!/2!2!) + 6 (8!/3!) ] / 6^8 = 0.1140261

10. 6C3(1/2)^6 (Binomial way)
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Tips for Solving P&C Problems:

1. Generally, Pr = No. of outcomes with restrictions / No. of outcomes without restrictions
Except for Binomial cases, where you have established independence among outcomes.
2. P = k! C (Ref: Lecture Summary 2)
Hence, think of Permutation as a 2-step process of first getting the no. of possible combinations
(“handfuls”), then, figuring out the no. of ways to arrange EACH combination.
Egs: 2b Q9 & 2b Q2(b) … in the latter we do the reverse - get no. of combinations by dividing P by k!
3. Use tree diagrams whenever applicable, eg. 1a Q5, 2a Q6, etc.
4. Pick the simplest possible choice of SS, eg. 2 couples from 3 for a committee of 4, SS = {C1,C2,C3};
eg. 2b Q10, SS = {E,O}, since you are only interested in Even or Odd (don’t need higher resolution)
5. Whenever you have a product of outcomes, eg. (4)(2), you must suspect that you are permutating …
Divide by k! if what you want is combinations, eg. 2b Q2(b) & 3(b)
6. Scale a problem down to “listable” size to get the thought process model, which you can then
extrapolate to bigger numbers, eg. 2b Q2 -> Q3 (3 to 5 couples) …

chtan@NBS, Jan’21