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Lecture 01 MV Optimisation
Lecture 01 MV Optimisation
Lecture 01 MV Optimisation
60%
40%
Portfolio
=I22*I3+I23*J3
0.12%
=I22^2*I4+I23^2*J4+2*I22*I23*J6
0%
=I27^0.5
1.19%
Stock A Stock B
Expected return 7% 15%
Risk 12% 25%
Weights 50% 50%
Correlation 0.50
1204%
The efficient frontier
1004%
404%
Y
204%
4%
0% 200% 400% 600% 800% 1000% 1200%
Risk
Two asset portfolios with different correlations
Expected return
1204%
3*C3*B5)
B
1004%
sk with correlation of
-0.50 -1.00 804%
604%
404%
204% A
4%
0% 200% 400% 600% 800% 1000%
T
h
P* e
The CAL - The efficie
set
e
A f
f
fficient frontier i
RF c
i
e
n
0% 200% 400% 600% 800% t
1000% 1200%
Risk
f
r
o
n
% 1000% 1200% t
i
e
r
erent correlations
B
rho=1
rho=0.5
rho=0
rho=-0.5
rho=-1
Risk
frontier
T
h
e
The CAL - The efficient
set
e
f
f
i
c
i
e
n
800% t
1000% 1200%
k
f
r
o
n
t
i
e
r
PRICE AND MARKET CAP DATA FOR 10 COMPANIES
General Home International Hewlett- American
Altria
Motors Depot Paper Packard Express
MO
GM HD IP HPQ AXP
Market capitalization
(billion $) 16.85 73.98 15.92 88.37 153.33 65.66
Benchmark proportion 2.71% 11.91% 2.56% 14.23% 24.69% 10.57%
=B3/
SUM($B$3:$K$3)
Monthly price data (includes dividends)
GM HD IP HPQ MO AXP
1-Apr-04 42.07 34.35 37.82 19.12 49.79 42.09
3-May-04 40.72 35.06 39.58 20.61 43.13 43.59
1-Jun-04 41.80 34.44 42.19 20.55 45.64 44.26
1-Jul-04 38.70 32.99 40.81 19.63 43.40 43.29
2-Aug-04 37.51 35.85 38.00 17.43 44.63 43.09
1-Sep-04 38.57 38.44 38.37 18.34 43.53 44.33
1-Oct-04 35.00 40.29 36.57 18.25 44.84 45.82
1-Nov-04 35.50 41.03 39.67 19.57 53.20 48.10
1-Dec-04 36.85 42.00 40.13 20.59 57.22 48.67
3-Jan-05 33.86 40.54 37.41 19.24 59.78 46.16
1-Feb-05 33.23 39.33 35.93 20.43 61.48 46.86
1-Mar-05 27.40 37.67 35.39 21.63 61.93 44.56
1-Apr-05 24.87 34.84 32.99 20.18 61.55 45.71
2-May-05 29.88 38.76 31.23 22.20 63.59 46.71
1-Jun-05 32.22 38.42 29.29 23.26 61.89 46.27
1-Jul-05 34.89 42.97 30.63 24.36 64.09 47.81
1-Aug-05 32.86 39.92 30.15 27.47 67.67 48.02
1-Sep-05 29.42 37.76 29.12 28.97 71.34 49.93
3-Oct-05 26.33 40.63 28.52 27.82 72.64 49.54
1-Nov-05 21.44 41.46 31.07 29.44 70.45 51.19
1-Dec-05 19.01 40.17 33.12 28.48 73.08 51.23
3-Jan-06 23.56 40.24 32.15 31.02 70.75 52.33
1-Feb-06 20.11 41.83 32.53 32.64 70.32 53.76
1-Mar-06 21.06 42.13 34.32 32.81 70.06 52.43
3-Apr-06 22.66 39.77 36.09 32.38 72.34 53.81
1-May-06 26.93 37.97 33.98 32.29 71.54 54.36
1-Jun-06 29.79 35.79 32.30 31.68 73.43 53.22
10 COMPANIES
Alcoa
DuPont Merck
Aluminum MMM
DD MRK
AA
=MMULT(MINVERSE(
X12:AG21),
(TRANSPOSE(X7:AG
7)-Y24))/
SUM(MMULT(MINVE
RSE(X12:AG21),TRA
NSPOSE(X7:AG7)-
Y24))
=AVERAGE(U10
:U69)
MRK MMM
-0.55% 0.75%
8.13% 5.58%
2.71%
7 8 9 11.91%
DD MRK MMM 2.56%
14.23%
24.69%
10.57%
4.53%
6.17%
12.80%
9.81%
1.00
0.33 1.00
0.56 0.11 1.00
0.40%
0.40%
0.40%
0.40%
0.40%
0.40%
0.40%
0.40%
0.40%
0.40%
=MMULT(Y4:AH13,AB28:AB37)*Z
24+Z16
=MMULT(Y4:AH13,AB28:AB37)*Z
24+Z16
PRICE AND MARKET CAP DATA FOR 10 COMPANIES
General Home International Hewlett- American
Altria
Motors Depot Paper Packard Express
MO
GM HD IP HPQ AXP
Market capitalization
(billion $) 16.85 73.98
=B3/ 15.92 88.37 153.33 65.66
Benchmark proportion 2.71% 11.91% 2.56%
SUM($B$3:$K$3 14.23% 24.69% 10.57%
)
HD IP HPQ MO AXP AA DD
=MMULT(TRANSPOSE(L10:U69-X7:AG7),L10:U69-X7:AG7
0.0031 0.0024 0.0042 0.0014 0.0033 0.0046
(COUNT(U10:U69)-1) 0.0018
0.0072 0.0019 0.0043 0.0022 0.0033 0.0046 0.0020
0.0019 0.0040 0.0031 0.0001 0.0024 0.0043 0.0021
0.0043 0.0031 0.0119 0.0026 0.0049 0.0061 0.0033
0.0022 0.0001 0.0026 0.0077 0.0016 0.0018 0.0009
0.0033 0.0024 0.0049 0.0016 0.0042 0.0038 0.0019
0.0046 0.0043 0.0061 0.0018 0.0038 0.0093 0.0041
0.0020 0.0021 0.0033 0.0009 0.0019 0.0041 0.0038
0.0002 0.0012 0.0020 0.0007 0.0011 0.0018 0.0017
0.0018 0.0016 0.0022 0.0008 0.0014 0.0024 0.0019
=4.83%/
0.40% 12
ptimization Weights
=MMULT(MINVERSE(
X12:AG21),
(TRANSPOSE(X7:AG
7)-Y24))/
SUM(MMULT(MINVE
RSE(X12:AG21),TRA
NSPOSE(X7:AG7)-
Y24))
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
GM HD IP HPQ MO AXP AA
1.00
0.33 1.00
0.35 0.35 1.00
0.35 0.46 0.46 1.00
0.14 0.30 0.02 0.27 1.00
0.47 0.61 0.58 0.70 0.28 1.00
0.44 0.56 0.72 0.58 0.21 0.60 1.00
0.27 0.39 0.54 0.49 0.16 0.49 0.69
0.11 0.03 0.24 0.22 0.10 0.20 0.23
=CORREL(OFFSET($M$8:$M$67,0,Z$34),OFFSET($
0.23 0.38 0.46
M$8:$M$67,0,$X45)) 0.37 0.16 0.38 0.45
MRK MMM
=AVERAGE(U1
-0.55% 0.75% 0:U69)
=STDEV(S10
8.13%
:S69) 5.58%
MRK MMM
10:U69-X7:AG7),L10:U69-X7:AG7)/
0.0010 0.0014
0.0002 0.0018
0.0012 0.0016
0.0020 0.0022
0.0007 0.0008
0.0011 0.0014
0.0018 0.0024
0.0017 0.0019
0.0066 0.0005
0.0005 0.0031
Initial Weight
2.71%
7 8 9 11.91%
DD MRK MMM 2.56%
14.23%
24.69%
10.57%
4.53%
6.17%
12.80%
9.81%
1.00
0.33 1.00
0.56 0.11 1.00
BL Forecased Return Mean Return
0.40%
0.40%
0.40%
0.40%
0.40%
0.40%
0.40%
0.40%
0.40%
=MMULT(Y4:AH13,AB28:AB37)*
0.40% Z24+Z16
MARKET (BENCHMARK) PORTFOLIO--WHAT DOES THE
BLACK-LITTERMAN APPROACH - STEP ONE
VCV Matrix
GM HD IP HPQ MO
GM 0.0118 0.0031 0.0024 0.0042 0.0014
HD 0.0031 0.0072 0.0019 0.0043 0.0022
IP 0.0024 0.0019 0.0040 0.0031 0.0001
HPQ 0.0042 0.0043 0.0031 0.0119 0.0026
MO 0.0014 0.0022 0.0001 0.0026 0.0077
AXP 0.0033 0.0033 0.0024 0.0049 0.0016
AA 0.0046 0.0046 0.0043 0.0061 0.0018
DD 0.0018 0.0020 0.0021 0.0033 0.0009
MRK 0.0010 0.0002 0.0012 0.0020 0.0007
MMM 0.0014 0.0018 0.0016 0.0022 0.0008
31,TRANSPOSE(
=MMULT(MINVERSE(B22:K31)
,B36:B45-B4)/
SUM(MMULT(MINVERSE(B22:
K31),B36:B45-B4))
ADJUSTING MARKET (BENCHMARK) PORTFOLIO FOR AN ANA
BLACK-LITTERMAN APPROACH - STEP TWO
(In this example the only opinion is about GM)
Expected Return of
the
=MMULT(B17:K17,TRANSPOS
Benchmark Portfolio 0.32% E(B16:K16))
VCV Matrix
GM HD IP HPQ MO
GM 0.0118 0.0031 0.0024 0.0042 0.0014
HD 0.0031 0.0072 0.0019 0.0043 0.0022
IP 0.0024 0.0019 0.0040 0.0031 0.0001
HPQ 0.0042 0.0043 0.0031 0.0119 0.0026
MO 0.0014 0.0022 0.0001 0.0026 0.0077
AXP 0.0033 0.0033 0.0024 0.0049 0.0016
AA 0.0046 0.0046 0.0043 0.0061 0.0018
DD 0.0018 0.0020 0.0021 0.0033 0.0009
MRK 0.0010 0.0002 0.0012 0.0020 0.0007
MMM 0.0014 0.0018 0.0016 0.0022 0.0008
Expected Optimized
Expected Analyst Return - Benchmark
Return - BL Benchmark Opinion Adj for Portfolio
Implied Portfolio d Opinion
TRANSPOS
MULT(B22:K31,TRANSP
=MMULT(MINVERS
E(B22:K31),E36:E45
-B4)/
SUM(MMULT(MINV
ERSE(B22:K31),E36
:E45-B4))
=B36:B45+MMULT(B5
0:K59,D36:D45)
=MMULT(MINVERS
E(B22:K31),E36:E45
-B4)/
SUM(MMULT(MINV
ERSE(B22:K31),E36
:E45-B4))
=B36:B45+MMULT(B5
0:K59,D36:D45)