Planning beyond lockdown for a

balance between life and livelihood

Nazneen Ahmed | Thursday, 15 April 2021

As a new surge of the Covid-19 had struck

Bangladesh recently, the government announced
a seven-day nationwide lockdown for one week
(5-11 April). The target of this lockdown was to
limit the transmission of this deadly virus and
keep people safe. Now a second lockdown for
another seven days started from April 14. The way
the 5-11 April lockdown, restrictions to be more
accurate, was implemented shows that lockdown
seems unlikely to yield effective results in
reducing virus transmission, while the economic loss is inevitable. We need to identify
the drawbacks of these lockdown restrictions and why Bangladesh is still not ready to
enforce a complete lockdown. Most important is to find out how we may keep a balance
between life and livelihood in the context of the resources and institutional realities of
Bangladesh. The first lockdown was imposed just for a week, and the new lockdown
has been announced for another week with an interval of two days in between.
However, experts suggest that we need a complete lockdown for 14 to 21 days to slow
down the spread of the Covid-19. Even if the lockdown restrictions were appropriately
implemented, a week of lockdown would certainly not effectively curb the
transmission in any sense.

Moreover, the first lockdown was much unorganised, slack, and loosely implemented,
far from the true spirit of lockdown. It remained as a 'partial' one where factories,
offices, and even the most crowded places such as Ekushey Book Fair and Bangladesh
Games were permitted to continue. Gradually, shopping malls and some public
transportation were allowed to function before the end of the week. Lockdown means
everyone has to remain at home unless one has an emergency, such as medical care or
bare essentials. But when a lockdown and public gatherings are encouraged
simultaneously, it provides a wrong and confusing signal to the mass people regarding
what to do. We already notice some of these features for the second lockdown, where
industries have been allowed to remain open. Again, the question arises, whether this
kind of lockdown is meaningful while we are incurring enormous sufferings for day
labourers, hawkers, petty business owners, and loss and slowing down of the overall
economy.

PROVIDING SOCIAL SECURITY PACKAGES: When we talk about stay-at-home

restrictions, we should also focus on why a complete lockdown in Bangladesh is hard to
impose and why most people disagree to accept it. Financial hardship is one of the most
salient reasons for it. Day labourers, small entrepreneurs of informal businesses, and
people from low-income households are hit hardest by such restrictions. Without
providing sufficient financial support, it is implausible that they will comply with
quarantine restrictions. Hence, one of the ways to resolve this issue is through social
security packages on a broad scale during the lockdown.

While arranging social security or stimulus packages or providing food supplies and
essentials, we also need to ensure that the affected people know where to get such
support and whom to ask for that. These programmes should be expanded to the
Upazila level to benefit maximum people who are actually in need. The government
may reintroduce and expand the scheme of providing minimum financial support to
low-income households through Mobile Financial Services (MFS). Last year, this
stimulus programme was targeted to aid 5.0 million poor households. In Bangladesh,
the extreme poverty rate is around 11 per cent, which implies that over 17 million
people fell under this category. So it may seem that supporting 5.0 million poor
households is not enough. Though all the poor households may not need such
assistance immediately, we need to have the preparation. Moreover, it is not even easy
to assure financial assistance for so many people instantly. Without such preparation
for supporting underprivileged people, announcing a long-term lockdown could be
detrimental. Therefore, a very pertinent thought is, if we cannot curb virus
transmission without a more extended term lockdown, then what is the point to go for
short lockdowns which are so disorganised. . We have to take a holistic approach while
planning. We have to adopt a long-term plan beyond lockdown. In Bangladesh's reality,
lockdown is not the solution as we cannot afford to go for a meaningful lockdown for
an extended period.

ASSUAGING THE PANIC REGARDING THE LOCKDOWN: Due to the previous experience
of lockdown, there is a mass panic all over the country regarding such restrictions. An
argument may arise that some people are just exaggerating this matter because a
seven-day lockdown cannot create a severe food shortage in most households and they
can somehow cope with it with their small savings. However, people have already seen
these lockdown restrictions get extended, pushing them into the pool of financial
difficulties and uncertainties. The panic among these people is not just about these
seven days. They have no idea what to expect after this week or how long it will take
for them to get regular works. Another problem associated with such an
announcement is that panic buying starts to ramp up. Higher-income households and
even middle-income households can afford to stockpile some food supplies and other
essentials, which is beyond the capacity of low-income households. Therefore, the
growing tension among low-income households about the shortage of basic food
supplies in the near future is justifiable. Besides these, there was a rumour just after
the declaration that the government does not have sufficient storage of rice to
distribute if needed. This misinformation added fuel to the fire, and the anti-lockdown
protests grew more serious.

Even if this was a rumour this time, the government should take initiatives to procure
rice so that there is no food shortage later on. Our major source of rice is Boro and the
harvesting time for Boro will start at the end of April. This year the situation is quite
different from the normal years. Hence, it demands a thorough plan on procuring rice
efficiently amid this pandemic and how mills should work, keeping the safety issues in
mind because we have to deal with both livelihood and the transmission of the Covid-
19 simultaneously. The government should immediately announce the procurement
price for Boro rice. If the national rice storage is filled up and the government ensures
the ability to distribute rice when needed, the concerns over the shortage of food
supplies can be reduced to some extent. We need to take this preparation whether or
not there is an extended lockdown.

ENFORCING PUBLIC HEALTH GUIDELINES IS WHAT WE NEED: Last year we noticed

the poor institutional capacity of our health sector. We now understand that we have to
live with Covid-19 for quite a while and therefore we need a long term planning
beyond this lockdown. Currently only a little over 3 per cent of the population could be
covered by the vaccination programme. We need to take preparation for the universal
vaccination of the population. Even then, given the current understanding of the
effectiveness of the vaccines, we may not be fully protected. All these realities indicate
that we need to plan how we can bring a balance between life and livelihood. In my
view, the solution is to enforce strict practice of health guidelines to combat Covid.
Short-term lockdown will not bring effective curbing of the virus surge, it will only hurt
the economy.

Additional programmes to safeguard public health should be introduced. For example,

the government should initiate extensive programmes to distribute masks, hand
sanitisers and soaps to those who cannot afford to buy these. There were some hand-
washing stations last year, but most of them are now lying useless due to lack of care.
We need to revive the practical measures favouring public health like hand-washing
stations and some more suitable measures for the current condition. While distributing
hygiene products for the poor people, the government needs to carry out continuous
social awareness programmes about Covid-19. Law enforcement officials can play a
significant role in implementing health guidelines, especially in making people wear
masks or maintaining social distance in public places. However, law enforcement
officials cannot control such conditions if general people are not supportive. The local
government leaders should come forward to create awareness regarding the health
protocols.

HARSHER ECONOMIC SHOCKS: This year's condition for lockdown restrictions is very
different than that of the previous year. Before the last year's lockdown, our economy
was progressive, and we were expanding gradually, and people had savings in hand.
Even some of the low-income households had minimal savings to support themselves
for a short time. However, the present condition is a different and complicated one
where many people have experienced job losses or incurred losses in their business. As
a result, they had to spend their savings and possessions supporting their families or
covering up business losses. We are yet to recover from the previous shock of the
pandemic. The second wave of Covid-19 has posed larger challenges to the already
challenged people. The government should concentrate more on making people health
and hygiene conscious for curbing the transmission if lockdown restrictions cannot be
imposed completely due to the issues associated with poverty and uncertainties.

THE WAY FORWARD: Based on our socio-economic condition, the government needs to
take a one-year plan to reduce transmission and at the same time ensure livelihoods
for people. The plan should include three major issues. Firstly, enough preparation
should be taken to provide food and cash support to the poor people in case any
temporary movement restriction (rather than calling it lockdown) is necessary.
Secondly, new stimulus packages should be devised to cover micro and small
entrepreneurs of the informal sector. People who are struggling to repay previous
loans should be given some additional time for repaying. Thirdly, strict implementation
of health protocols should be ensured. At the same time, health facilities at the upazila
level should be enhanced. The activists of political parties can influence general people
to follow health and hygiene guidelines. The leaders must take the responsibility to
guide their activists regarding this in such a national emergency.

We may not have the capacity to afford a complete lockdown, but we can surely afford
to and must maintain health and hygiene protocols strictly as long as Covid-19 is
present.

Dr Nazneen Ahmed is Senior Research Fellow, Bangladesh Institute of

Development Studies (BIDS). nahmed@bids.org.bd

Editor : Shah Husain Imam

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