STATISTICS 10

Problem
In a far flung future, post apocalyptic scenario, paintings are a rarity. Your employer
sent you to a mission to acquire a certain painting. The only clue that was given to
you is that this painting will be the most expensive painting to be sold in a certain
shop. After a long trip, the shop owner told you that there are 4 paintings to be sold,
each with different prices and the most expensive one is the painting that you want.
The value of each painting will be displayed one after one in a dark room for you to
select. The rule is this, when you enter the room, you will see the price of the first
painting, then you must decide to either select the first painting or give it up. If you
decide to give up on the painting, you will see the second painting with its price, then
you must decide to either select the second painting or give it up. If you decide on
giving up on the second painting, you will see the third painting and its price, then
you must decide either to select or give up the third painting. If you choose to give up
this time, you will be forced to choose the last painting. Take note, your mission is to
acquire the most expensive painting. What strategy should you use? Provide the
necessary computation for the probabilities.

Part I: Understand the Problem

Attempt 1
In the given problem, the mission is to buy the most expensive painting in a certain
shop without knowing its actual appearance. The only clue that was given is that this
painting is the most expensive one.

Attempt 2
The challenge is, it is not allowed to see the four paintings at once as well as its
prices. It can only be seen once and one by one, and once you see each painting
you will have to decide whether to buy it or not. It is like a touch move, you can no
longer see other paintings if you decide to buy the first one. And if you have already
decided to give up on the first painting, then you can no longer acquire it. Same with
the second up to the third painting.

Attempt 3
The main problem in the given situation is what strategy should be used to
accomplish the task which is to acquire the most expensive painting in the shop. It
means the problem is looking for the strategy of how to acquire the most expensive
painting by using the knowledge about probabilities.
a. Write down your feelings about the problem. Does it bore you? scare you?
challenge you? Why?
The problem is quite challenging since there are rules that need to be
considered. It requires me to think deeply and carefully. Also, it challenges me
to use my problem-solving skills and knowledge about probabilities. Proper

This study source was downloaded by 100000871420780 from CourseHero.com on 10-12-2023 05:23:07 GMT -05:00

https://www.coursehero.com/file/211476046/Statistics-Problempdf/
 comprehension, deep understanding and skills in probabilities are needed in
solving the given problem.

b. In the problem, underline words, phrases, sentences that will help you
understand this problem.

In a far flung future, post-apocalyptic scenario, paintings are a rarity. Your

employer sent you to a mission to acquire a certain painting. The only clue
that was given to you is that this painting will be the most expensive painting
to be sold in a certain shop. After a long trip, the shop owner told you that
there are 4 paintings to be sold, each with different prices and the most
expensive one is the painting that you want. The value of each painting will
be displayed one after one in a dark room for you to select. The rule is this,
when you enter the room, you will see the price of the first painting, then
you must decide to either select the first painting or give it up. If you decide
to give up on the painting, you will see the second painting with its price,
then you must decide to either select the second painting or give it up. If you
decide on giving up on the second painting, you will see the third painting
and its price, then you must decide either to select or give up the third
painting. If you choose to give up this time, you will be forced to choose the
last painting. Take note, your mission is to acquire the most expensive
painting. What strategy should you use? Provide the necessary computation
for the probabilities.

c. Is there a way to draw the scenario to make it easier to understand?

Room 1 Room 2 Room 3 Room 4

With Painting With Painting With Painting With Painting
No. 1 No. 2 No. 3 No. 4

You and the Shop Owner

Part II: Devise a Plan

a. Write down the Math skills and ideas that might be involved in solving the
problem.

This study source was downloaded by 100000871420780 from CourseHero.com on 10-12-2023 05:23:07 GMT -05:00

https://www.coursehero.com/file/211476046/Statistics-Problempdf/
 The main mathematical concepts that we will be using in solving the problem
are the properties of probability. These include the different terms applied in
probability such as event and sample space as well as the formula which is
𝑛(𝐸)
𝑃(𝐸) = 𝑛(𝑆)
. Furthermore, we will be applying our skills in conceptualization,
comprehension, and analysis to solve the given problem.

b. Do you think you have the required knowledge to implement the plan?
We believe that we have the required knowledge to implement our plan. By
thoroughly studying the different mathematical concepts applicable in this
problem, we are confident that we would be able to construct a strategy in
achieving our goal which is to acquire the most expensive painting.

c. Write out each plan concisely and clearly. State the heuristic to be used for
solving.
The probability of a painting being the most expensive is 25%. We arrived at
this probability because 𝑛(𝐸) is equal to 1 as only one painting is the most
expensive and 𝑛(𝑆) is equal to 4 as there are four paintings in total . Since
𝑛(𝐸) 1
𝑃(𝐸) = 𝑛(𝑆)
, then 𝑃(𝐸) = 4
. The problem states that when we enter a room,
we must decide whether to select or surrender the painting in that room. This
rule implies that the problem is a dependent event. Two events are dependent
if the outcome or occurrence of the first affects the outcome or occurrence of
the second so that the probability is changed. This means that the 25%
probability can change as we progress through the process.

Plan 1
We are currently in the first room and a painting is presented to us by the
shop owner. The probability of the painting in the first room being the most
expensive one is 25%.
𝑛(𝐸)
𝑃(𝐸) = 𝑛(𝑆)
1
𝑃(𝐸) = 4
𝑜𝑟 25%
This means that the probability of the most expensive painting being in one of
the next three rooms is 75%.
1 3
𝑃(𝐸) = 1 − 4
= 4
𝑜𝑟 75%
Since 75% is greater than 25%, we have to take the risk and surrender the
painting in the first room.

Plan 2
There are only three rooms left. Assuming that the most expensive painting is
not in the first room, we now proceed in the second room. A new painting is
presented to us by the shop owner. The probability of the painting in the
second room being the most expensive one is approximately 33.33%.

This study source was downloaded by 100000871420780 from CourseHero.com on 10-12-2023 05:23:07 GMT -05:00

https://www.coursehero.com/file/211476046/Statistics-Problempdf/
 𝑛(𝐸)
𝑃(𝐸) = 𝑛(𝑆)
1
𝑃(𝐸) = 3
𝑜𝑟 33. 3%
This means that the probability of the most expensive painting being in one of
the next two rooms is approximately 66.66%.
1 2
𝑃(𝐸) = 1 − 3
= 3
𝑜𝑟 66. 6%
Likewise, since 66.66% is greater than 33.33%, we have to take the risk and
surrender the painting in the second room.

Plan 3
Only two rooms are left. Assuming that the most expensive painting is not in
the second room either, we now proceed in the third room where a new
painting can be seen. The probability of the painting in the third room being
the most expensive one is 50%.
𝑛(𝐸)
𝑃(𝐸) = 𝑛(𝑆)
1
𝑃(𝐸) = 2
𝑜𝑟 50%
This means that the probability of the most expensive painting being in the
last room is 50% as well.
1 1
𝑃(𝐸) = 1 − 2
= 2
𝑜𝑟 50%
Since both probabilities are equal, we can finally select the painting either in
the third room or fourth room.

In conclusion, our plan is to choose the painting in the third or fourth room as
it gives us a higher chance of achieving our mission compared in the first or
second room. Specifically, we will choose the painting in the third room
because it gives us a higher probability of acquiring the most expensive
painting which is 50%.

This study source was downloaded by 100000871420780 from CourseHero.com on 10-12-2023 05:23:07 GMT -05:00

https://www.coursehero.com/file/211476046/Statistics-Problempdf/
Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)