Test Bank for Strategic Human Resources Planning 7th Edition Belcourt

Test Bank for Strategic Human Resources Planning

7th Edition Belcourt

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Chapter 5 - Determining HR Demand

1. What is the most common operational index used by organizations in a ratio analysis?
a. sales level b. units produced
c. clients served d. production hours
ANSWER: a

2. Which forecasting technique provides a long-run qualitative forecast where experts meet and give their
assessments about the future?
a. Delphi technique b. critical incident technique
c. repatriation technique d. nominal group technique
ANSWER: d

3. According to the textbook, when the Delphi technique was used to identify competencies for research chef,
which of the following was NOT a topic for consideration?
a. factors that differentiate successful from unsuccessful research chefs
b. years of experience for successful and unsuccessful research chefs
c. skills and knowledge needed to be a successful research chef
d. tasks that differentiate a successful research chef from an ordinary chef
ANSWER: b

4. In the Delphi technique, why do the experts NOT meet face-to-face?

a. They do not have the time. b. They want to lower costs.
c. They worry about groupthink. d. They lack communication expertise.
ANSWER: c

5. What type of analysis reveals the historical relationship between the operational index and the demand for
labour?
a. correlation b. multivariate
c. trend d. regression
ANSWER: c

6. In a simple regression prediction model, what does B represent?

a. dependent variable
b. constant or intercept
c. slope of the linear relationship between X and Y
d. independent variable
ANSWER: c

7. What method of estimating HR demand extrapolates historical organizational indices to forecast future
personnel needs?
a. trend analysis b. ratio analysis
c. cohort analysis d. impact analysis
ANSWER: a

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8. What type of quantitative forecasting method that attempts to forecast future human capital needs by
extrapolating from historical changes in one or more organizational indices?
a. trend analysis b. regression analysis
c. time series model analysis d. structural equation modelling analysis
ANSWER: a

9. Typically, how is most of the expert information gathered using the Delphi technique?
a. interviews b. discussion groups
c. teleconferencing d. questionnaires
ANSWER: d

10. According to the textbook, what is one disadvantage of the Delphi technique?
a. groupthink b. shyness
c. time and costs d. communication
ANSWER: c

11. What technique should be used if you want all the participants to have equal participation in the sessions and
to minimize dominance, personal attacks, and defensive behaviour?
a. Delphi technique b. critical incident technique
c. repatriation technique d. nominal group technique
ANSWER: d

12. Why are assumptions necessary when implementing the steps of the nominal group technique?
a. to minimize the chance that expert estimates will be misinterpreted
b. to make sure that the group is not dominated by one expert estimate
c. to eliminate the necessity for experts to defend their estimates
d. to ensure the validity and confidentiality of the expert estimates
ANSWER: a

13. What stage in the nominal group technique would typically ask a question like, “What will Concord
Corporation’s demand for production workers be in the year 2017?”
a. select the experts b. meet face to face
c. define the question d. discuss demand estimates
ANSWER: c

14. How do the experts finally agree on a solution in the nominal group technique?
a. by defending their perspectives
b. by voting for the best estimate
c. by lobbying the other group members
d. by ranking the solutions with a secret vote
ANSWER: d

15. What federal government agency provides expert information for labour demand forecasting?
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a. National Occupational Classification b. Citizenship and Immigration Canada
c. Conference Board of Canada d. Statistics Canada
ANSWER: d

16. If you want to determine the total HR demand requirement for operational or short-run time periods, what
type of information should you gather?
a. staffing table b. HR budget
c. impact analysis d. envelope/scenario forecasts
ANSWER: a

17. In the Delphi technique, why does the project coordinator continue to issue questionnaires to the experts?
a. Current information has not been optimal, and so further information is required.
b. Additional information still needs to be gathered regarding the predetermined questions.
c. Information gathered to date has not led the group to make a consensual decision.
d. Current information is insufficient in some way that is required to make future supply estimates.
ANSWER: c

18. Which of the following is NOT considered a benefit of the nominal group technique?
a. supports brainstorming b. lower costs and time
c. equal participation d. reliable and valid
ANSWER: b

19. If HR specialists use multiple predictor estimates of the future demand for personnel based on a variety of
differing assumptions about how future events will unfold, what type of forecasting technique or analysis are
they using?
a. Delphi technique b. nominal technique
c. impact analysis d. scenario forecast
ANSWER: d

20. Which of the following demand forecasting methods is NOT a quantitative method?
a. trend analysis b. Delphi technique
c. regression analysis d. staffing table
ANSWER: b

21. There are six steps associated with the Delphi technique for HR demand forecasting. What is the first step?
a. identify the experts, terms, and time horizon
b. issue the first round of questionnaires
c. select the experts
d. define and refine the issue or question
ANSWER: d

22. What is another name for the dependent variable in the simple regression prediction model?

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a. causal variable b. target variable
c. linear variable d. random variable
ANSWER: b

23. What do you call the observed relationship between the independent and dependent variables?
a. causal b. direct
c. linear d. indirect
ANSWER: a

24. Organizations interact with their changing environments. Which of the following is an environment factor
that aids HR forecasters in predicting the demand for a particular job?
a. customers b. sales levels
c. production levels d. policies
ANSWER: a

25. When trying to forecast the number of employee hours required for work in a retail store during December,
the HR planner used last December’s ratio of total sales to total hours worked as the basis for an estimate for the
current year’s needs. What forecasting model is the HR planner using to predict future HR demand?
a. times series model b. regression model
c. projection model d. production model
ANSWER: a

26. What type of analysis presupposes that a linear relationship exists between sales and the number of
employees?
a. ratio b. multivariate
c. trend d. regression
ANSWER: d

27. What would be two human resource quantitative forecasting demand techniques?
a. regression analysis and trend projection techniques
b. extrapolation and transition matrices techniques
c. indexation and replacement chart techniques
d. budget analysis and skills inventory techniques
ANSWER: a

28. What would be two human resource qualitative forecasting demand techniques?
a. regression analysis and trend/ratio analysis techniques
b. extrapolation and transition matrices techniques
c. scenario planning and nominal group techniques
d. budget analysis and skills inventory techniques
ANSWER: c

29. The Oakland Athletics baseball team used statistical cause-and-effect models for HR planning. What do
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cause-and-effect models assume?
a. that there is an ongoing relationship between independent and dependent variables
b. that the extrapolated trends will influence future supply and demand
c. that the time horizon used for the models is most conducive to short-term forecasts
d. that the subjective judgment of experts supports the forecasts
ANSWER: a

30. Tiger Boots, a footwear retailer, is currently determining its HR demand using ratio analysis. What would be
a key operational index used by Tiger Boots in a ratio analysis?
a. sales level b. human resources
c. clients served d. production hours
ANSWER: a

31. What would be the first step in HR forecasting once an organization has identified its organizational goals,
objectives, and plans?
a. to examine data from a variety of perspectives
b. to determine the overall demand requirements for personnel (i.e., what staff are needed, when, and
where)
c. to assess in-house skills and other internal supply characteristics
d. to determine the net demand requirements that must be met from external environmental supply
sources
ANSWER: b

32. Which forecasting technique would an organization use if it wanted to conduct a long-run qualitative
forecast in which experts meet and give their assessments about the future?
a. Delphi technique b. critical incident technique
c. repatriation technique d. nominal group technique
ANSWER: d

33. An organization wants to determine its total HR demand requirement for operational or short-run time
periods. What would be the best way to gather this information?
a. use staffing tables b. use Markov analysis
c. use impact analysis d. use scenario forecasts
ANSWER: a

34. An organization wants to determine the total HR demand requirement for long-run time periods. What
would be the best way to gather this information?
a. use staffing tables b. use movement analysis
c. use impact analysis d. use scenario forecasts
ANSWER: d

35. An organization wants to develop a better understanding of what factors influence demand and supply, and
what processes may be causing bottlenecks in the flow of human capital. What would be the best way to gather
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this information?
a. use staffing tables b. use HR budgets
c. use a simulation d. use scenario forecasts
ANSWER: c

36. An organization is using multiple predictor estimates of the future demand for human resources based on a
variety of differing assumptions about how future events will unfold. What type of forecasting technique or
analysis is it using?
a. Delphi technique b. nominal technique
c. simulation d. scenario forecast
ANSWER: d

37. An organization wants to use a quantitative demand forecasting method. Which of the following is NOT a
quantitative method?
a. trend analysis b. Delphi technique
c. regression analysis d. staffing table
ANSWER: b

38. An organization wants to use a qualitative demand forecasting method. Which of the following is a
qualitative method?
a. trend analysis b. nominal group technique
c. HR budget d. staffing table
ANSWER: b

39. In reference to a systems perspective, what is the first step necessary to determine the demand for any job?
a. to understand both the long-run qualitative and quantitative forecasts of jobs within the firm
b. to understand how that job fits into the needs of the organization and how those job requirements
interact with other jobs within the firm
c. to understand both the needs of the organization and the long-run forecast of jobs within the
organization
d. to identify both the needs of the organization and human resources competencies required
ANSWER: b

40. There are two main factors that determine whether a quantitative model or qualitative model is a better
choice. Which of the following is one of these factors?
a. the degree of uncertainty involved in the demand forecast
b. the complexity of balancing supply and demand forecasts
c. the estimates of the demand for labour
d. the long-term environmental forecasts of labour
ANSWER: a

41. There are two main factors that determine whether a quantitative model or qualitative model is a better
choice. Which of the following is one of these factors?
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a. the estimates of the demand for labour
b. the long-term environmental forecasts of labour
c. the short-term environmental forecasts of labour
d. the volume and complexity of the data available
ANSWER: d

42. For a medium-sized Canadian furniture manufacturing company the demand for recliner chairs is fairly
stable, because the market for recliner chairs is fairly stable. Since there exists a comparatively high degree of
certainty in the market, which of the following forecasting models would be an effective model for assessing the
demand for labour for this company?
a. a simple model based on a future forecast
b. a simple model based on an existing forecast
c. a structural equation model
d. a model based on an existing forecast
ANSWER: b

43. Organizations interact with their always-changing environments. Which of the following is an environment
factor that aids HR forecasters in predicting the demand for a particular job?
a. compensation strategy b. human resources strategy
c. sales levels d. economy
ANSWER: d

44. Which of the following forecasting methods is the most commonly used qualitative method for determining
workforce requirements?
a. nominal group technique b. Delphi technique
c. scenario planning d. management surveys
ANSWER: d

45. Organizations interact with their constantly changing environments. Which of the following is an
environment factor that aids HR forecasters in predicting the demand for a particular job?
a. collective agreement b. company strategy
c. competitors d. employees relative worth
ANSWER: c

46. What forecasting model or technique would be better when forecasting demand in a stable market when
there is a high degree of certainty in the relationship between the demand for labour and the indicators of that
demand?
a. qualitative model b. quantitative model
c. scenario planning d. expert surveys
ANSWER: b

47. As the volume and complexity of forecasting data increases and forecasting uncertainty becomes very high,
which forecasting models would be preferable?
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a. quantitative models b. statistical models
c. qualitative models d. structural equation models
ANSWER: c

48. What type of qualitative forecasting method is concerned with long-run forecasting utilizing expert
assessments?
a. nominal group technique b. Delphi technique
c. scenario planning d. structural equation modelling technique
ANSWER: a

49. What type of quantitative forecasting method projects HR demand by analyzing the historical relationship
between an operational index and the number of employees required?
a. time series model analysis b. regression analysis
c. ratio analysis d. structural equation modelling analysis
ANSWER: c

50. HR forecasters uses various statistical forecasting methods. What statistical technique permits the testing of
multiple relationships simultaneously in a theoretically derived model?
a. time series model analysis b. regression analysis
c. ratio analysis d. structural equation modelling analysis
ANSWER: d

51. Which of the following is a qualitative human resource forecasting method?

a. time series b. nominal group technique
c. regression analysis d. structural equation modelling technique
ANSWER: b

52. What forecasting method is the most commonly used qualitative method for gathering human resource
demand information?
a. nominal group input b. direct managerial input
c. scenario planning group input d. Delphi group input
ANSWER: b

53. HR forecasters uses various qualitative forecasting methods. What qualitative technique is used to imagine
future possible organizational states and the resulting capabilities, activities, or strategies that are necessary to
be successful in those future states?
a. management surveys b. Delphi technique
c. scenario planning d. nominal group technique
ANSWER: c

54. What qualitative forecasting process solicits and summarizes the forecasts and judgments of a selected group
of experts in an attempt to determine the future HR demand?
a. nominal group technique b. scenario planning

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c. Delphi technique d. management surveys
ANSWER: c

55. What type of information do HR budgets take into consideration when used in forecasting human resource
demand?
a. industry experts and management knowledge
b. line employee and union staff records
c. historical company staffing trends and competitor staffing practices
d. university researchers’ and business consultants’ data
ANSWER: c

56. What sources of information do HR budgets take into consideration when used in forecasting human
resource demand?
a. university researchers’ and business consultants’ data
b. professional associations and Statistics Canada
c. industry experts and management knowledge
d. union and industry associations
ANSWER: b

57. What type of forecasting method is concerned with blending of quantitative and qualitative methods of
analysis?
a. simulation b. regression analysis
c. scenario planning d. structural equation modelling
ANSWER: a

58. Refer to Scenario: Canadian Engineering Shortages. Indicators suggest that the demand for engineering
occupations currently exceeds supply at the provincial and national levels. What is this estimate of demand and
supply called?
a. strategic human resource management b. human resource planning
c. human resource estimating techniques d. human resource forecasting techniques
ANSWER: b

59. Refer to Scenario: Canadian Engineering Shortages. What would you call the process described in this
scenario?
a. strategic human resource management
b. human resource planning
c. linking human resource management with strategic planning
d. human resource supply techniques
ANSWER: b

60. Refer to Scenario: Canadian Engineering Shortages. What do the Canadian National Household Survey and
the Canadian Labour Force Survey reports attempt to do?
a. predict the future demand and supply for a wide variety of Canadian occupations
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b. predict the future demand growth for a wide variety of Canadian occupations
c. estimate the future demand and supply for Canadian workers
d. predict the future demand and supply for Canadian engineering workers
ANSWER: a

61. Refer to Scenario: Canadian Engineering Shortages. The situation described in this scenario can be referred
to as a tight labour market. What occurs in a tight labour market?
a. The supply of labour exceeds the demand for labour.
b. Labour supply and demand creates tension in the labour market.
c. The demand for labour exceeds the supply of labour.
d. Supply and demand create labour shortages.
ANSWER: c

62. Refer to Scenario: Canadian Engineering Shortages. The growth in demand for civil engineering
occupations has been strong due to the rising needs associated with the high number of retiring workers.
Although countless challenges influence the demand for engineering professionals, what is the primary cause of
demand in this case?
a. external factors b. demographic factors
c. labour market factors d. organizational factors
ANSWER: b

63. Refer to Scenario: Canadian Engineering Shortages. What human resource technique is being used to gather
the data for the Engineers Canada labour market projection report?
a. human resource occupational planning b. human resource Markov analysis
c. human resource audits d. human resource forecasting
ANSWER: d

64. Refer to Scenario: Canadian Engineering Shortages. Of the following options, what would be the most
effective strategy to deal with the engineering shortages?
a. utilize job sharing arrangements b. increase engineering school graduates
c. use flexible contract arrangements d. use internal transfers
ANSWER: b

65. In a trend analysis, it is necessary to extrapolate data related to historical changes.

a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

66. In an structural equation modelling, current trends are analyzed by a panel of experts to predict future HR
demand.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: False
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67. Trend analyses are complex since they require the analysis of multiple variables.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: False

68. A staffing table forecasts the total HR demand required for operational or short-run time periods.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

69. In the Delphi method experts do not meet, but they do in the nominal group technique.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

70. Simulation is a powerful blend of quantitative and qualitative analysis.

a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

71. A regression analysis is a linear equation between a single causal variable and multiple dependent variables.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: False

72. A ratio analysis is a quantitative method of projecting HR demand by analyzing the relationship between an
operational index and the number of employees required.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

73. In a simple regression, Y is the independent variable.

a. True
b. False
ANSWER: False

74. Another name for the scenario forecast method is the projection forecast method.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: False

75. The Delphi technique is a quantitative method for deriving detailed assumptions of long-run HR demand.
a. True
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b. False
ANSWER: False

76. A deficiency of the Delphi technique is that the results cannot be verified statistically.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

77. The first step in the nominal group technique is to select the experts.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: False

78. Scenario forecasting is based on the premise that, because the future course of events is not known with
certainty, it is necessary to develop several plausible sets of outcomes.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

79. Typical estimates for scenario forecasting are organized into optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic scenarios.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

80. In the simple regression prediction model, X represents the independent variable.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

81. Perceived status differences may influence how experts express their views when forecasting in face-to-face
groups.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

82. Regression analysis is a very effective quantitative forecasting technique for all time horizons.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: False

83. If there are several dependent variables, then the regression is referred to as multivariate regression analysis.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: False
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84. In a simple regression equation, there is an assumption of linearity between the independent and dependent
variables.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

85. The last stage in the nominal group technique is a secret vote that determines the highest ranking for the
group’s HR demand solution.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

86. HR budgets are a qualitative method of HR demand forecasting that estimates the number and types of
personnel required by the organization.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: False

87. Unlike trend analysis forecasting, nominal group technique forecasting relies on subjective, but expert,
judgments.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

88. HR demand refers to the future need for the firm’s skills requirements, the types of jobs and the number of
positions that must be filled for the firm to implement its strategy.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

89. The demand for human capital resources is determined by the strategic and operational requirements of the
firm or business unit.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

90. Times series models use past data to predict future demand. They can range from very simple to highly
complex.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

91. A regression analysis is a form of time series design that uses the data from the current year (period) to
predict next year’s (period’s) demand, reflecting a linear relationship.
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a. True
b. False
ANSWER: False

92. Multivariate regression and other similar modelling/programming models depend on large amounts of
reliable data.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

93. Estimates of the demand for labour in Canada have become increasingly uncertain over the past few years,
primarily due to unsustainable forces affecting the economy.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: False

94. Long-term forecasts in this uncertain environments will require more qualitative methods and simulations
that permit exploring multiple scenarios.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

95. The demand for human capital is determined by the strategic requirements of the firm.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: False

96. Understanding the demand for human resources begins with the firm’s strategy and flows from the value-
generating activities of the firm.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

97. A systems perspective suggests that in order to determine the demand for any job, it is first necessary to
understand how that job fits into the needs of the organization, and how those job requirements interact with
other jobs within the firm.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

98. Forecasting demand begins with a clear understanding of how the firm brings value to the customer, and an
estimate of the extent to which the market will want to consume the firm’s products or services.
a. True
b. False

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ANSWER: True

99. One main factor that determines whether a quantitative model or qualitative model is a better choice is the
degree of uncertainty involved in the demand forecast.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

100. One main factor that determines whether a quantitative model or qualitative model is a better choice is the
volume and complexity of the data that are available to assist in creating the demand forecast.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

101. In general, qualitative models are better when forecasting demand in stable markets when there is a high
degree of certainty in the relationship between the demand for labour and the indicators of that demand.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: False

102. Trend analysis involves examining the relationship between an operational index and the demand for
labour (as reflected by the number of employees in the workforce).
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: False

103. Quantitative models based on historical data may be the best indicator of future needs if the business or
environment is in a period of significant transition.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: False

104. Structural equation modelling (SEM) is as a process similar to regression, except that SEM uses many
outcome variables in a single theoretical model.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

105. The primary drawback to structural equation modelling (SEM) is that SEM typically requires more data
observations than regression.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

106. Regression analysis is a statistical technique that permits the testing of multiple relationships
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simultaneously in a theoretically derived model.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: False

107. Quantitative models can be very useful, especially in mature industries or where environmental changes are
predictable or stable.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

108. When there is a great degree of uncertainty, quantitative models may be preferable.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: False

109. Qualitative models may be useful when no formal planning exists and no formal data collection occurs
around a planning process.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

110. Qualitative forecasting in the form of direct managerial input is the most commonly used method for
determining workforce requirements.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

111. Scenario planning is a qualitative forecasting method for imagining future possible organizational states
and the resulting capabilities, activities, or strategies that are necessary to be successful in those future states.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

112. The Delphi technique is a process in which the forecasts and judgments of a selected group of experts are
solicited and summarized in an attempt to determine the future HR demand.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

113. The mominal group technique (NGT) utilizes expert assessments to achieve short-run human resource
demand forecasts.
a. True
b. False

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ANSWER: False

114. A primary advantage to NGT is that it allows all participants to contribute to the process at an equal level
by reducing the tendency for more extroverted individuals to dominate the process.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

115. Studies have shown that nominal group technique is especially effective for brainstorming sessions to
ensure all participants have an equal voice in the sessions and when a problem stems from several widely
diverse causes.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

116. HR budgets are used to forecast quantitative, operational, or short-run demand estimates that contain the
number and types of jobs required by the organization as a whole and for each subunit, division, or department.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

117. The HR budget process produces a staffing table, which contains information related to a specific set of
operational assumptions or levels of activity.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

118. The staffing table presents the total HR demand requirement, laid out in terms of the number of people
required by level and function.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

119. HR budgets are used to forecast the total HR demand requirement for operational or short-run time periods.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: False

120. Quantitative and qualitative methods are not exclusive methods where the forecaster decides to use one
method at the expense of the other.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

121. Quantitative and qualitative analyses can provide information that complement one another.
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a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

122. A simulation is a quantitative model that incorporates a set of assumptions about relationships among
variables in a mathematical algorithm.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: False

123. Simulation can simultaneously model demand and supply and is very useful for testing the impact of
assumptions on the outcome of the model.
a. True
b. False
ANSWER: True

124. Describe ratio analysis and outline the steps involved in conducting this forecasting method. What are the
most common operational indices used by organizations?
ANSWER: ∙ historical relationship between an operational index and the number of employees required by the
organization (demand for labour)
∙ quantitative forecasting technique
∙ reveals the historical relationship between the operational index and the number of employees
required by the organization (the demand for labour)
Steps in conducting a trend analysis:
∙ Select the appropriate business/operational index.
∙ Track the business index over time.
∙ Track the workforce size over time.
∙ Calculate the average ratio of the business index to the workforce size.
∙ Calculate the forecasted demand for labour.
Common operational indices:
∙ sales level
∙ number of units produced
∙ number of clients serviced
∙ production hours (direct labour hours – DLH; indirect labour hours – ILH)

125. Describe what an “expert” demand forecast is and list five different types of experts who could be
involved. Identify and describe two different types of expert forecasting methods.
ANSWER: An expert forecast is a qualitative process for determining future labour requirements, a detailed
process of stating assumptions, considering potential organizational and environmental changes, and
deriving a rationale to support the numerical estimate. Different experts that can be involved in the
process are:
∙ line managers
∙ HR and business planning staffs
∙ business consultants
∙ financial analysts
∙ university researchers
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∙ union staff members
∙ industry spokespersons
∙ federal, provincial, and local government staff (e.g., Human Resources Development Canada,
Statistics Canada)
Two different types of expert forecasting methods are the Delphi technique and the nominal group
technique. The Delphi technique is a carefully designed program of sequential, individual
interrogations (usually conducted through questionnaires) interspersed with information feedback on
the opinions expressed by the other participants in previous rounds. Nominal group technique is a
qualitative long-run forecasting technique utilizing expert assessments. Groups of experts meet face-
to-face to discuss their individual findings on a specific issue and then silently vote or rank their
findings on that issue.

126. What are some the advantages and disadvantages of the Delphi technique, where experts do NOT meet
face-to-face?
ANSWER: Advantages include:
∙ It avoids problems associated with face-to-face groups: mainly, reluctance of individual experts to
participate because of shyness, perceived lower status or authority, perceived communications
deficiencies, issues of individual dominance, and groupthink.
∙ It serves as a great equalizer.
∙ It elicits valid feedback from all members.
∙ It can draw information from people located in a variety of geographical areas.
Disadvantages of this method include:
∙ Time and costs increase due to questionnaire series administered.
∙ Results cannot be validated statistically.
∙ It is dependent on individual knowledge and commitment of experts.
∙ If experts are drawn from one professional field, their common professional training will guide
them along a single line of inquiry rather instead of pursuing more innovative courses of action.
∙ If insufficient attention has been paid to developing criteria for the identification and selection of
experts, the personnel selected to derive the demand forecasts may lack sufficient expertise or
information.

127. Describe how HR Budgets and staffing tables are applied in HR demand forecasting.
ANSWER: HR budgets are quantitative, operational, or short-run demand estimates that contain the number and
types of personnel required by the organization as a whole and for each sub-unit, division, or
department.
∙ HR budgets are prepared by the HR staff in conjunction with line managers.
∙ They consider historical trend information, competitor staffing practices, industry and professional
associations, and Statistics Canada.
∙ They give a prediction or single estimate of future HR demand.
∙ The HR budget process produces a staffing table.
∙ Staffing tables have information related to specific operational assumptions (for example, increasing
sales by five percent over last year).
∙ Staffing tables present the total HR demand requirement for operational or short-run periods.

128. What is envelope/scenario forecasting? Describe some of its features.

ANSWER: Envelope/scenario forecasting uses projections, or multiple-predictor estimates, of future HR demand

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for personnel based on a variety of differing assumptions as to how future organizational events will
unfold.
∙ comprehensive future planning of operational and short-run HR demand
∙ multiple-predictor estimates
∙ several plausible outcomes developed based on the premise that we have certain knowledge of
future events
∙ cause and effect events linked together
∙ brainstorming sessions with line managers and HR managers to develop scenarios
∙ combined expert view of the workforce over the next five years formulated
∙ works backwards to identify key change points

129. Describe the process of scenario planning, including its strengths and limitations in determining HR
demand.
ANSWER: Scenario planning as a forecasting method is most often used to develop organizational strategy. A
primary strength of scenario planning as a strategy-setting tool is that it encourages participants to
develop strongly shared mental models of future organizational states. Scenario planning is a method
for imagining future possible conditions in which the organization might operate. As a technique, it
requires participants to challenge existing assumptions and to generate vivid pictures of possible
future states.
The general process of scenario planning is as follows:
∙ State the question about the future state of the firm or environment. For example, “How many
households will own an electric car in 10 years”?
∙ Generate a list of factors that are likely to influence the outcome in question. It is often useful to
perform a SWOT analysis that takes into account factors such as the economy, the political
landscape, society, and the impact of technology.
∙ Sort the factors into naturally occurring groups and rank the groups according to their importance to
the change initiative and the ability of the firm to control the factor. Factors that the firm has less
ability to control should receive higher rankings.
∙ Select the two groups of factors that are likely to have the strongest and most unpredictable impact
on the question. Create four quadrants (see Figure 5.5) by stretching one group along a continuum
from its extreme negative condition to its extreme positive condition on the x-axis and the other
group along a continuum from its extreme low to high conditions on the y-axis.
∙ Name and describe in story form each of the four worlds in the four resulting quadrants.
∙ Suggest the skills, competencies, and other organizational requirements that would be necessary for
the firm to be able to operate in each of these four worlds.
∙ Generate a demand forecast necessary to fulfill the firm’s requirements in each of the four worlds.

130. Estimates of the demand for labour in Canada have become increasingly uncertain over the past few years,
primarily due to conflicting forces affecting the economy. Describe two of these conflicting forces.
ANSWER: On one hand, as baby boomers retire, there has been the expectation of a large increase in the demand
for labour. By the year 2030, when the youngest baby boomers are expected to reach the age of 65, it
is expected that between 22 percent and 24 percent of Canadians will be 65 years of age or older.
However, not all baby boomers are choosing to retire at age 65. In 1997 a 50-year-old Canadian
worker was expected to work another 13 years; by 2008 a 50-year-old worker was expected to work
for another 16 years. Clearly, Canadians are remaining in the workforce longer. This increased
participation has been attributed to factors including longer life expectancy, better health in older age,
lower savings levels, and higher educational attainment. While the number of Canadians approaching
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retirement age is increasing dramatically, the rate of retirement might be slowing the resulting
expected increase in demand for labour.
On the other hand, recent forecasts of the expected impact of workforce automation has produced
dramatic estimates of the expected reduction in workforce participation due to automation. Some
estimates of the impact of automation on the Canadian labour force suggest that almost 50 percent of
Canadian jobs are at a high risk of being affected by automation in the next two decades. Other, more
temperate estimates, suggest that the types of jobs in Canada that are at a high risk of automation
account for less than 2 percent of employment. With the high degree of uncertainty around the future
impact of automation on the Canadian workforce, long-term forecasting becomes much more
difficult.
The other primary forces contributing to uncertainty around the future labour demand in Canada are
the shifts to self-employment and the sharing economy. The sharing economy refers to the services
that are brought together through modern technology to provide services like accommodations for
guests in people’s homes (such as Airbnb), transportation services for riders using privately owned
vehicles (such as Uber), restaurant and grocery delivery services (such as Skip the Dishes), and
crowdfunding platforms (such as GoFundMe). These types of work arrangements can be difficult to
assess in terms of labour participation, and the impact of these services over the long term is
uncertain due to shifts in technology and government regulations.
The combination of these factors contributes to a level of uncertainty that is very difficult to forecast
using traditional quantitative modelling methods. Long-term forecasts in this type of environment
will require more qualitative methods and simulations that permit exploring multiple scenarios.

131. There are two main factors that determine whether a quantitative model or qualitative model is a better
choice in determining HR demand. Describe these two factors.
ANSWER: Because of the variety in the complexity and levels of uncertainty in forecasting the demand for
labour, there exist multiple forecasting methods. These methods can be divided into two main
categories: quantitative methods and qualitative methods. The two main factors that determine
whether a quantitative model or qualitative model is a better choice are the degree of uncertainty
involved in the demand forecast, and the volume and complexity of the data that are available to
assist in creating the demand forecast.
In general, quantitative models are better when forecasting demand in stable markets when there is a
high degree of certainty in the relationship between the demand for labour and the indicators of that
demand. As the volume and complexity of data that are available increase, quantitative models can
deal with higher levels of uncertainty, but when uncertainty becomes very high, qualitative models
become preferable.

132. Researchers have found that experts are very often wrong in their human resources forecasting and that
groups of people are very often correct in determining HR demand. Discuss the benefits of using groups of
experts in an effort to increase the validity and reliability of both the forecast and the information used to
formulate the forecast.
ANSWER:
One of the issues with qualitative decision methods, as pointed out by Philip Tetlock in his book
Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, is that experts are very often
wrong. However, James Surowiecki finds that groups of people are very often correct. Qualitative
forecasting methods such as the Delphi technique and nominal group technique make use of groups
of experts in an effort to increase the validity and reliability of the forecast and of the information
used to formulate the forecast. When a group of experts is involved in a forecasting exercise, each
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expert benefits from the knowledge and assumptions of all other experts involved. This way, the
limitations of any single mental model used by any single expert are reduced by exposure to others.
Furthermore, qualitative methods of forecasting such as these increase the reliability of the
information by working through an iterative process where each expert has the opportunity to clearly
explain his or her assumptions and decisions. This means that all experts share the same
understanding of one another’s assumptions before arriving at a final forecast decision.

133. There are six steps associated with using the Delphi technique for HR demand forecasting. List these steps.
Share an example of how the Delphi technique can be applied in HR forecasting.
ANSWER: ∙ Define and refine the issue or question.
∙ Identify the experts, terms, and time horizon.
∙ Orient the experts.
∙ Issue the first-round questionnaire.
∙ Issue the first-round questionnaire summary and the second round of questionnaires.
∙ Continue issuing questionnaires.
Refer to HR Planning Today 5.2 for examples of how the Delphi technique has been used. Two
examples are in agricultural research and competencies of research chefs. Subsequent to the
September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States, the Delphi technique was used by the
government and insurance and risk managers to estimate the possibility of future losses due to
terrorism, and the likely types of terrorist acts various organizations might experience. Experts used
the Delphi technique to analyze databases on landmarks, tourist attractions, “vital points,” and
property assessment data to come up with their forecasts.

134. There are six steps associated with using the Delphi technique for HR demand forecasting. Discuss these
steps.
ANSWER: ∙ Define and refine the issue or question. During this stage, a project coordinator is assigned, and he
or she works with the HR staff to determine the specific job or skills category or activity that will be
the focus of the Delphi technique. It is essential that the group targeted for HR forecasting be well
defined so that relevant, focused, and detailed feedback based on a minimum of assumptions
(redundant assumptions are associated with loss of the experts’ time) can be derived.
∙ Identify the experts, terms, and time horizon. The project coordinator, normally in conjunction with
the HR staff, identifies and selects a team of individuals deemed to be experts with respect to the
specific human capital grouping that requires a forecast. The number of experts to include in an
expert panel typically ranges between 7 and 15. Next, given that in many cases the group of experts
will include individuals who are not members of the organization, it is important for both parties to
reach agreement on the terms and conditions for participation in the forecasting process, as well as
setting the context and explicitly defining the nature of the work. For example, the team of experts
must be absolutely clear on which jobs constitute “production workers” if those experts are being
asked to derive a demand forecast for this category. Similarly, the exact time horizon(s) must be
specified for the human capital category being analyzed.
∙ Orient the experts. In addition to identifying the relevant time horizon(s) and clarifying which
employee groups are of interest, the orientation process for experts includes an overview of the
demand forecasting decision process. The experts are told either that there will be a predetermined
number of questionnaire iterations or that the sequence will continue until a majority opinion exists
among the experts.
∙ Issue the first-round questionnaire. The project coordinator sends each expert the questionnaire by
courier, fax, mail, or email and includes a time frame for completing and returning it. Typically, this
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first questionnaire focuses on defining both the explicit assumptions made by each of the experts and
the background rationale supporting his or her particular demand estimate.
∙ Issue the first-round questionnaire summary and the second round of questionnaires. Following the
completion of the first questionnaire, the project coordinator sends the second and subsequent rounds
of questionnaires to the experts with a written summary of the findings from the previous round. The
aim of the subsequent questionnaires is to focus the experts’ initial assumptions and estimates by
providing summarized feedback from all members of the group. Points of commonality and conflict
are identified in the summary, as is the need to clarify specific assumptions identified by the
responses to the previous round.
∙ Continue issuing questionnaires. The project coordinator continues to issue questionnaires until
either all the predetermined questionnaire stages have been completed and summarized or the group
reaches a clear majority decision. In either case, the majority or nth-round summary summarizes the
experts’ future demand estimate for the HR category under analysis.

135. Describe the nominal group technique (NGT), how it differs from the Delphi technique and its primary
advantage as a qualitative demand forecasting method.
ANSWER: Although the nominal group technique (NGT) is also a long-run, qualitative demand forecasting
method, it differs from the Delphi technique in several important respects. First, unlike in the Delphi
technique, the group does, in fact, meet face to face and interact, but only after individual written,
preparatory work has been done and all the demand estimates (idea generation) have been publicly
tabled, or written on a flip chart, without discussion. Second, each demand estimate is considered to
be the property of the entire group and to be impersonal in nature, which minimizes the potential for
dominance, personal attacks, and defensive behaviour in support of estimates presented in the group
forum. Finally, the expert forecast is determined by a secret vote of all group members on their
choice of the tabled demand forecasts. The estimate receiving the highest ranking or rating during the
voting process is deemed to be the group’s forecast.
A primary advantage to NGT is that it allows all participants to contribute to the process at an equal
level by reducing the tendency for more extroverted individuals to dominate the process.
Refer to HR Planning Today 5.3.

136. In reference to forecasting HR demand, define simulation. The simulation process can be broken down into
several steps; list these five steps.
ANSWER:
Simulation is a blend of qualitative and quantitative modelling that incorporates a set of assumptions
about relationships among variables in a mathematical algorithm. Simulation can simultaneously
model demand and supply, and is very useful for testing the impact of assumptions on the outcome of
the model.
The simulation process can be broken down into several steps:
∙ Using qualitative methods, collect the relevant variables. This process can use interviews, focus
groups, Delphi, or NGT to collect the information.
∙ Describe how these variables interact together by developing a process model to map the
relationships between variables. Line managers who have direct experience with the manner and
ways in which the demand for human capital changes over time and with sales are in an excellent
position to provide insights to this process.
∙ Use simulation software and develop the algorithms to estimate the model. The range of
assumptions developed qualitatively are used to run the simulation several thousand times. The
output of the simulation presents a range of outcomes that occur most of the time. This range of
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outcomes represents the envelope of estimates over which a demand estimate is likely to occur given
the current set of assumptions.
∙ Test the model using historical data to validate the assumptions used in its development.
∙ Different assumptions can be easily tested in the model by inputting new scenarios and re-running
the simulation.

137. Describe how you would use a simulation in forecasting HR demand. Describe two benefits of using
simulation in forecasting demand and supply.
ANSWER:
Simulation is a blend of qualitative and quantitative modelling that incorporates a set of assumptions
about relationships among variables in a mathematical algorithm. Simulation can simultaneously
model demand and supply, and is very useful for testing the impact of assumptions on the outcome of
the model.
The main benefit of simulation in forecasting demand (and supply) is not in arriving at a more
accurate forecast, but in developing a better understanding of what factors influence demand and
supply, and what processes may be causing bottlenecks in the flow of human capital. In this sense
simulation is considered to be more descriptive of processes than prescriptive. The advantage of
simulation is in providing knowledge around how demand estimates might react to changes in
environmental factors, in customer characteristics, in the training or skills requirements of
employees, or in any of the assumptions that are used to build the simulation model.

138. Refer to Scenario: Canadian Engineering Shortages. Using the information you know about forecasting HR
demand, what advice would you offer to Engineers Canada to address the replacement demand for engineers
over the next decade?
ANSWER: The report includes provincial- and federal-level projections of supply and demand for engineers and
serves to highlight the continued importance of engineers to the Canadian economy. There is a large
and growing need to replace retiring engineers. This is particularly relevant for civil, mechanical,
electrical/electronic, and computer engineers. Interprovincial mobility and immigration may be
important in filling the positions left by retiring engineers. As a proactive strategy to deal with these
shortages, Canadian universities, colleges, and technical institutions can play a critical role in
increasing the number of Canadian and international students graduating with engineering degrees
and technical diplomas, thereby creating new entrants to engineering occupations. Federal
government policies that streamline international immigration of engineers to meet future workforce
requirements may help.
NARR: Canadian

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