Question 1: Application of Bayes' Theorem

1. In the dairy department of a supermarket, 100 yogurts of brand A, 60 of brand B and 40 of brand C are
mixed and for sale. The probability that a yogurt is out of date is 0.01 for brand A; 0.02 for brand B and
0.03 for brand C. A buyer chooses a yogurt at random. Knowing that the chosen yogurt is expired, what
is the probability that it is brand B?

Solution

D( P D( V / D ' - )
Using Bayes' theorem we have P(B / X) =------------------------------= 200------------= 0.35
P(X) 0.017

2. A manufacturing company receives shipments of a certain part from two suppliers. Currently, 65% of
the parts purchased by the company come from supplier 1 and the remaining 35% from supplier 2. The
quality of purchased parts varies with the source of supply. Based on historical data, the probability
that a part from supplier 1 is defective is 0.02 and that the probability that a part from supplier 2 is
defective is 0.05. If we randomly select one of the parts purchased by the company, what is the
probability that the supplier is from supplier 1, if it is known that it was selected not defective?
Solution

P(DC )= 0.637 + 0.3325 = 0 .9695

p(a/pe)_0.637 = 0.6570
' 0.9695

3. The NGO (non-governmental organization) "Defiende al ciudadano" was considering filing a lawsuit
against automobile insurance rates in one of 3 cities: Lima, Santiago and Quito. The probability of Lima
being chosen was 0.40; of Santiago being chosen was 0.35 and of Quito being chosen was 0.25. The
group also knew that they had a 60% chance of getting a favorable opinion if Santiago was selected,
45% if Lima was selected and 35% if Quito was selected. If the group obtained a favorable ruling, which
of the cities had the best chance of being chosen to file the lawsuit?
Solution
Constructing a double-entry table
0.1800
P(L/F) - 0 .4775 = 0 .3770 = 37 .70%.
0.2100
P(S/F) =-------------= 0.4398 = 43.98%
0.4775
0.0800
P(Q/F) =------------= 0.1832 = 18.32%
0.4775
Therefore, the one with the best probability is from the city of Santiago.
4. A patient suffers from a disease that is fatal in 50% of the cases. A possible treatment is surgical. It has
been shown that 40% of the survivors have had surgery and 10% of the non-survivors have had surgery.
Find the probability that a patient will survive if he or she has had surgery.

5. A test for the presence of a virus detects the virus in 95% of cases when it is present, but may have a
false positive result in 5% of cases. If in a given population the disease appears in about 0.3% of the people,
calculate the
probability that a person has the disease given that the result was positive.

6. Nuevas Bombillas Gallego, S.A. ships large batches of light bulbs to large industrial users. When the
production process works correctly, which is 90% of the time, 10% of all bulbs produced are defective.
However, the process may malfunction from time to time and, in that case, the rate of defective bulbs
is 40%. If a defective bulb is found, what is the probability that the process is working correctly?
 Question 2: Application of Binomial Distribution
1. An electronic equipment retail chain buys an electronic device from a manufacturer, which tells it
that the rate of defective devices is 3%. The chain store inspector chooses 25 items at random from
a batch of merchandise.
a. What is the probability that there is at least one defective item among these 25?
b. What is the probability that there are 3 defective items among these 25?

Solution:
a. Probability of having at least one defective item
among these 25:
P(X > 1) = P(X=1) + P(X=2) + P(X=3) + ... + P(X=25)
P(X> 1) = 1-P(X=O)
P(X > 1) = 1 -(205) (0.03)° (1 - 0.03)25-0
P(X > 1) = 0 .4670

b. Probability of 3 defective items among these 25:

P(X= 3)=(35) (0.03)3(1-0.03)25-3
P(X= 3) = 0.0318

2. Fifty percent of Americans believed the country was in a recession even though the economy had
not seen two consecutive quarters of negative growth. (BusinessWeek, July 30, 2001). Given a
sample of 20 Americans, calculate the following.
a. Calculate the probability that exactly 12 people believed that the country was in recession.
b. That five or more people believed the country was in recession.
 —\— 0,005°88°

_o°Q40%ob

3. Tractos S.A. is a company that markets and installs electronic equipment. A specialist in the area
verifies that, of all the equipment installed, 40% require new adjustments after installation. If 5
machines were randomly selected. What is the probability that at least 3 will require adjustment
work after installation?

Solution:
Success={A Machine Requires Adjustment}, Failure={A Machine Requires No Adjustment}, Failure={A Machine
Requires Adjustment}, Failure={A Machine Requires Adjustment}.
Piéxifo) =n= 0.4
PtFcase) = 0.6
We define the random variable X defined as.
X: Number of machines requiring adjustment, within a group of 5
(5
X - Bin{n. I) - Bin (5,0.4) - f(x) =; . 0.4* x 0.6"7 x=0.1,2,3,....

By condition of the problem:

P X > 3 ) = f (3) + /(4) + /(5)
Replacing in the Binomial Distribution Function
/(3) = 0.2304
/(4) = 0.0768
/(5) = 0.0102
P(X> 3) = 0.3174
The probability that at least 3 require adjustment work after installation is 0.3174.
4. Suppose Juana Navas, a real estate agent, contacts five people and believes that the probability of
making a sale to each is 0.40.
a. Find the probability that you will make at most one sale.
b. Find the probability that you will make between two and four sales (inclusive).

5. A production manager knows that 5% of the components produced in a given production process
have some defect. Six of these components, whose characteristics can be assumed to be independent
of each other, are examined.
a. What is the probability that one of these components has a defect?
b. What is the probability that at least two of these components have a defect?
6. A Harris Interactive survey for InterContinental Hoteld and Resorts asked, "When traveling abroad,
do you usually venture out on your own to experience the culture or do you prefer to stay with your
tour group and stick to the itinerary?" It was found that 23% preferred to stay with their tour group
(USA Today, January 21, 2004).
a. What is the probability that, in a sample of six travelers, two would prefer to stay with their
group?
b. That, in a sample of six travelers, at least two would prefer to stay with their group?
 Question 3: Application of the Poisson distribution

1. If the probability that an older adult will suffer an adverse reaction when given a certain vaccine for
Covid 19 is 0.001, determine the probability that, out of a total of 2,000 older adults:
a) exactly 3 present adverse reaction
b) more than 2 older adults have an adverse reaction.
Solution
p = 0 .001 n = 2000

% = np A = 0 .001(2000) = 2

For every 2000 older adults, 2 have an adverse reaction.

a) For x =3

-2 23
p(X =3)= -31 = 0.18045 = 18.04%.

b) For x £2

P(X>2)=? .....................2000}

P(X > 2) = 1- [P(X = 0 ) + P (X = 1) + P(X = 2 )].

P(X>2) = 1-
e2.2 e2.21 e2.2
0! 1! 2!
P(X > 2) = 1 - [0.13524 + 0 .27068 + 0 .27068] P(X > 2) = 1 [0.67670] = 0 .3233 = 32 .33% = 32 .33%.

2. If 3% of the cell phones manufactured by a company are defective, find the probability that in a sample
of 100 cell phones:
a) No cell phone is defective.
b) 5 cell phones are defective.
 Solution:
p = 0 .03 n = 100

A=np 2 = 0 .03(100) = 3

3 out of every 100 cell phones are defective

a) For x = 0

,-3 30
POX = o ) = । = 0,04979 = 4,98%

b) For x = 5

-3 35
P(X = 5 ) = | = 0,10082 = 10,08%

3. If The number of people who die in an occupational accident per year in a certain country is three per
100,000 inhabitants. Find the probability that in a city with a population of 200,000 there are:
a) No one person killed due to an occupational accident per year
b) 8 people killed as a result of an occupational accident per year Solution:
3
p =------- -- -= 0 00003 n = 200 000
100000

X = np X = 0 ,0003(200 000) = 6

6 out of 200,000 people die as a result of an accident at work

a) For x = 0

,-6 go
P(X = 0 ) = € = 0.002479 = 0 .25%.
O!

b) For x = 8

g-668
P(X = 0 ) = -gi = 0 .10326 = 10 .33%.

4. An electronics company observes that the number of components that fail before reaching 100 hours
of operation is a Poisson random variable. If the average number of these failures is eight. what is the
probability that no more than three components will fail in 50 hours? Interpret the result.
Solution:
5. An electronics company observes that the number of components that fail before reaching 100 hours of
operation is a Poisson random variable. If the average number of these failures is eight. what is the
probability that no more than three components will fail in 75 hours? Interpret the result.

6. An electronics company observes that the number of components that fail before reaching 100 hours of
operation is a Poisson random variable. If the average number of these failures is eight. what is the probability
that no more than two components will fail in 125 hours? Interpret the result.
Solution:
 Question 4: Application of the Normal distribution1
1. Monthly fees in a dairy products company follow a normal distribution with a mean of 1200 soles, and a variance
of 40000 soles. What percentage of workers earn between 1000 and 1550 soles? Solution:
1 PART P( X < 1000)

_ 1000 - 1200 _ -200 _

Z1 = =
200 200 = -
z,=-1 ->0,15866

1 PART P( X < 1500)

_ 1550 - 1200 _ 350 _

22 ” 200 2005 1,75
Z2 =1,75 - 0,95994

-z2 - z, = 0 .95994 -0.15866=0.80128

Answer: 0.80128X100%= 80.128 %.

2. A prestigious company that produces bottled energy drinks has an automatic filling machine that pours a certain
amount of this drink into each bottle, which follows a normal distribution with a mean of 500 milliliters and a
variance of 25 milliliters. What percentage of bottles are filled between 490 and 507 milliliters?
Solution:

1 PART P(X < 490)

490-500 -10
 =-2 — 0,02275
1 PART P( X < 507)

507 - 500 7

Z2 =1,4 - 0 ,91924

-Z2 - z, = 0.91924 -0.02275=0.83649

Answer: 0.89649X100%= 89.649 %.

3. A clinic conducts a cholesterol analysis in men over 50 years of age, and after several years of research, concludes
that the distribution of cholesterol readings follows a normal distribution, with a mean of 210 mg/dl and a
standard deviation of 15 mg/dl. What percentage of this population has cholesterol readings greater than 250
mg/dl?
Solution:

z_X-U
8

- 250-210
Z =-------------------= 2,6/
15

P(X>250)=P(Z >2.67) = 1-P (Z<2.67)

P(Z >2.67) = 1-0 .99621

P(Z >2,67) = 0 ,00379

Answer: 0.379% Answer: 0.379% Answer: 0.379% Answer: 0.379

4. Assume that the production cost of a calculator has a normal distribution with a mean of 40 soles and a standard
deviation of 3 soles. If a calculator is chosen at random:
a) Calculate the probability that the production cost is more than 42 soles.
b) Calculate the probability that its production cost is at most 36 soles.
Solution:
(c)) A= 4o Rx-42) -> (2 " 92-4 ) _Ras 0.(F)
'for SuSSrcdg- - .
2 2 ° (2)- I- (24 0-6?)
_1l.9/52
o
Í(2>, .67 25193

tí rx 430- 7(2 - 36 - ) _ P(a £ - / 33) =D. 09/32

5. The height of UTP students follows a Normal distribution of mean 160 cm. and standard deviation
5 cm. If a student is chosen at random:
a) Calculate the probability that the student is at least 168 cm tall.
b) Calculate the probability that the student is taller than 150 cm, but shorter than 162 cm. Solution:

6. The Backus company applies a test to applicants for a management position. If the score obtained follows a
normal distribution with mean 85 and standard deviation 24. The evaluation team wishes to classify the
examinees into three groups (low general culture, acceptable general culture, excellent general culture) so that
18% of the population is in the first group, 65% in the second and 17% in the third. If Tracy scores 85 points,
which group does she belong to?
Solution:
 Question 5: Application of the Normal distribution2
1. It is known that the live connection time spent by followers of a political channel via streaming has a normal
distribution with a mean of 79 minutes and standard deviation of 14 minutes. What is the probability that a
randomly selected follower will be live for at least one and a half hours? Solution:
Data: We standardize:

■ X: live connection time < "-/) - p(z < 0.70)

■ =79 minutes From the table:

■ 0=14 1-P(Z< 0.79) = 1 - 0.78524 = 0.21476

■ 1.5 h = 90 minutes The probability that a follower will be online

for at least one and a half hours is 0.21476.
■ Call for: P(X > 90) -1 - P(X < 90)

2. Assume that the live connection time spent by followers of a streaming cultural channel has a normal distribution
with mean 49 minutes and standard deviation 16 minutes. What is the probability that a randomly selected
follower will be live for at least one hour?
Solution:
Data: We standardize:

■ X: live connection time

P- < 60-49 ) - p(z < 0.69)
■ u = 49 minutes
From the table:
■ o=16
1P(Z< 0.69) = 1 - 0.7549 = 0. 2451
■ 1 h = 60 minutes
The probability of a follower being online for at
■ Request: P(X > 60) -,1 - P(X < 60)
least one hour is 0.2451

3. It is known that in a certain economic streaming channel the live connection time spent by followers has a normal
distribution with a mean of 51 minutes and a standard deviation of 12 minutes. What is the probability that a
randomly selected follower will be live for at least one hour?
Data: We standardize:
■ X: live connection time
p < 601251) < 0.75)
■ p = 51 minutes
From the table:
■ o = 12
L-P(Z < 0.69) = 1 - 0.77337 = 0.22663
■ Call for: P(X > 60) -1 - P(X < 60)
The probability that a follower is online for at
least one hour is 0.22663

Solution:
4. Productos Orgánicos, S.A. produces high quality frozen organic turkeys for distribution in organic food markets
throughout the region. The company has developed a pasture-based feeding program with organic grain
supplements to produce its product. The average weight of their frozen turkeys is 15 kilos with a variance of 4.
Historical experience indicates that the normal probability distribution is a good approximation of the weights.
Market research indicates that sales of frozen turkeys over 18 kg are low. What percentage of the company's
turkeys will weigh more than 18 kilograms?

5. A company produces light bulbs whose lifetime follows a normal distribution that has a mean of 1,200 hours and a
standard deviation of 250 hours. If we choose a bulb randomly, what is the probability that it will last between 900
and 1,300 hours?

6. Estrella Plateada, S.A., has several stores in large metropolitan shopping centers. Their sales experience indicates
that daily sales of cell phones in their stores follow a normal distribution with a mean of 60 and a standard
deviation of 15. The marketing department performs a series of routine analyses of sales data to monitor sales
performance. What proportion of sales days will have sales between 85 and 95, given that these are following
historical experience?