G20 Summit in Delhi

Prof. Ijaz Khan

Former Professor of IR at University of Peshawar
Twitter @ijazkhan

G20 summit was held in Delhi on 9 & 19 September. It was a focus of attention in capitals
around the world, before it happened and is being discussed afterwards too. In Pakistan, it has
generated feeling of being left behind. Some are trying to belittle it, while others use it to
criticize Pakistan’s foreign policy. This brief write up is an attempt to see it as it is, without
any value judgement. Ending with what it means and can mean for Pakistan.

G20, as the term suggests stands for Group of 20 (countries), on the pattern of Group of 7
(+1), the organization of industrially advanced states. The group originally consisted of 19
countries and European Union, however, with addition of African Union at the Delhi summit,
total membership is now 21, however, it is still referred to as G20. It started in 2009 in the
aftermath of a series of world financial crisis. Unlike many believe it undermines or
challenges the post 2nd World War financial order led by US, the G20 was initiated by the
developed states of G7, mainly Germany and USA. The idea was to bring the many new
emerging economies in the management of the International financial system, not replace it.
It was considered due to the rise of some new economies; the existing structures are
inadequate to manage the global finance system on their own. The new financial powers must
be given representation, so G20. G20 is basically organization of finance ministers of the
member states, with summits of heads of Governments and States as an annual feature.
Members are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, Canada, Germany, France, India, Japan,
Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, Britain, and United States. Some non-
member states are also invited and some are permanent guest invitees, besides some states,
they are the United Nations, the World Bank and ASEAN. Presidency rotates yearly among
members, in such manner that a current President is followed by someone from another
geographic region. India holds the current presidency.

Though focused on economics and finance, it does not stay totally away from politics as
much as economy cannot be totally separated from politics. It is not an organization that can
take some decisions that it can implement. It was never intended to be, as can be seen, from
not having any permanent secretariat; a temporary secretariat is established in the country,
which holds presidency for that year.
Though lacks capacity to implement its decisions, its decisions has a lot of weight as they are
a consensus of the countries that hold 80% of World Gross Production and 75% of World
trade. The consensus requirement probably also results in a weakness as most decisions are a
compromise to address concerns and policies of quite a diverse group. The decision must
have agreement of states at loggerheads such as USA, China and Russia, beside many others.
However, the wordings and language of the final communique of a Summit has to be
carefully read, though it will still leave space of debate and differing interpretations.

In the Delhi summit two issues stand out, one is the words chosen to address the Ukraine
conflict and the other is the India, Middle East, Europe Economic Corridor announced by the
Saudi Crown prince Muhammad Bin Salman at the summit. Avoiding condemnation of
Russia as aggressor can be termed a success for Indian diplomacy. India was able to prevail
upon the western states, including US, which was represented by President Biden himself to
use language closer to Indian stand on the issue. The 2 nd is announcement of the India ME
Europe corridor is considered a major win for both India and West as well as ME. Though
there are a few voices questioning the economic viability of the announced route, which
can/will be debated, its announcement do have important geopolitical significance no one can
ignore. This corridor will have major regional and international impacts as it grows and how
it grows. Though most commentators also present it as a balance and alternate to the Chinese
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and thus a major success for USA and India, but looking at the
complexities of the new international geopolitics, the possibility of it converging rather than
replacing or competing with BRI should not be ruled out. As of now, it seems, India has been
able to keep both Russia and USA happy and put up a spoiler towards China at the same
time. President Xi decision not to participate himself has also been made less significant, in
the process.

On the face of it, the diplomatic achievement of India, for just hosting the summit, even if
President XI and President Putin did not participate, is taken mostly in Pakistan as a loss and
bad for it. In the immediate run, it is. However, there are always opportunities in the worst
situations. Can Pakistan make it good for itself? Yes, it can. But if you ask, will Pakistan or is
Pakistan capable of it? The answer at best would be doubtful. But first, unlike many on social
media expressing anger a Saudis for the Corridor deal and implying Pakistan has or will lose
Saudi support, Saudi relations with Pakistan will continue as they are. Saudi Arabia is
following a foreign policy which enables her to maintain ties with China and US as well as
now with Iran too. It will similarly keep its relations with India and Pakistan. Pakistan needs
investment and monetary support from Saudi Arabia, not weapons. Saudis will pursue in
those areas, not much taking into account its growing relations with India.

There is an imaginary map doing the rounds on social media, showing how long and
impractical the route is. Then, some in Pakistan have shared a map showing, how convenient
and short would India, Pakistan Iran, Turkey, Europe route be. They miss two points; one it is
not just about Indian trade with Europe, but trade between India, Middle East and Europe.
Trade is expected to flow to and from all the places in the route. Pakistan has not allowed
trade between India and Central Asia and Afghanistan through its space. Will it allow its
territory to be used between India and Europe, is a big question. Even if it does that will leave
out most of the countries in the proposed route, though Pakistan can be a part of the route
without changing it substantially. But that would require fundamental policy decisions.

So, what are the opportunities for Pakistan? Pakistan, rather than reacting negatively to the
economic corridor, should explore how to be a part of it. Pakistan can gain tremendously by
such a possibility. Though India under Modi government, who believes it has Pakistan
cornered may not be very welcoming. Pakistan can use its relations with Saudi Arabia and
even US to that end. Pakistan has an opportunity to make geo economics as the basis of its
policy, as it has been saying repeatedly. Chinese will most probably not be averse to such a
move by Pakistan. They normally think and plan long term. This can be seen in the long term
or even intermediate if not short term as making this new corridor complimentary to its BRI.

Can Pakistan actually follow such a path. Like it was stated, its doubtful. Its economic woes,
and more so its political crisis, which is getting worse, has squeezed and is further squeezing
maneuverability space for Pakistan diplomacy. The very weak caretaker government and the
strong military that is in real control, but under constant public political attack, will find it
difficult, even if not impossible to take new policy initiative of very fundamental nature.
More significantly Pakistani ruling mindset is intellectually not ready for any fundamental
change. Those opposed to the current arrangements, for right reasons or wrong, will find any
such move as a sell-out. It is a test for Pakistan diplomacy and those at helm of affairs of their
ability to manage it. It will be too ideal to expect the opposition to understand the needs of
the country and not engage in political point scoring, but nothing wrong in wishing they will.