Multiple factors make Afghan communities vulnerable to earthquakes - Temblor.

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Multiple factors make Afghan communities vulnerable

to earthquakes

When a magnitude-6.1 quake struck Afghanistan in June, long-

standing vulnerabilities — including a heavily faulted region,
1 traditional adobe-style construction, and lack of enforceable building
codes — were again revealed.

By Zakeria Shnizai, Ph.D., Kabul Polytechnic University and St. John’s

College, Morteza Talebian, Ph.D., Research Institute for Earth Sciences –
Geological Survey of Iran, Sotiris Valkanotis, Ph.D., Democritus University of
Thrace, Greece, Richard Walker, Ph.D., University of Oxford

Citation: Shnizai, Z., Talebian, M., Valkanotis, S., and Walker, R., 2022, Multiple
factors make Afghan communities vulnerable to earthquakes, Temblor,
http://doi.org/10.32858/temblor.266

A magnitude-6.1 earthquake struck the Afghanistan–Pakistan border in the early

morning hours of June 22, 2022. Though relatively moderate in size, the earthquake
devastated Paktika and Khost Provinces in southeastern Afghanistan, killing more
than 1,050 people and injuring almost 3,000 more. Three weeks later, on July 18, a
magnitude-5.1 aftershock again rattled the region.

Citation: Shnizai, Z., Talebian, M., Valkanotis, S., and Walker, R., 2022, Multiple
factors make Afghan communities vulnerable to earthquakes, Temblor,
http://doi.org/10.32858/temblor.266
 The outsized destruction wrought by the quakes was promoted by geography, regional
economic fragility, and by the widespread use of traditional adobe construction
techniques.

A seismically active region

Afghanistan is one of the most seismically active intercontinental regions in the world.
The country sits on the edge of the Eurasian tectonic plate. Natural hazards abound
due to the nearby slow-motion collision of India into Asia. Northward motion of India
at 1.5 inches per year (40 millimeters per year) dissects eastern Afghanistan and
adjacent parts of Pakistan with a series of northeast-oriented left-lateral strike slip
faults, in which rocks on either side of the fault move to the left relative to the other
side. Compression between the tectonic plates results in shortening of the crust along
thrust faults within the lobe-shaped Sulaiman and Salt ranges.

Citation: Shnizai, Z., Talebian, M., Valkanotis, S., and Walker, R., 2022, Multiple
factors make Afghan communities vulnerable to earthquakes, Temblor,
http://doi.org/10.32858/temblor.266
 Simplified tectonic map of the Sulaiman fold-and-thrust belt on top of the ESRI basemap. Map
compiled by Zakeria Shnizai

Active faulting is distributed even more widely across Afghanistan; northern parts of
the country sit within the Afghan-Tajik depression — a large low-elevation depression
surrounded by high glacial peaks, floored by sediments many kilometers thick, and
cut through by numerous earthquake faults — and the Herat Fault stretches across the
country, almost to the Iranian border. Within eastern Afghanistan, active faults raised
the great mountain ranges of the Hindukush and Pamir, as well as wide belts of lower-
elevation mountainous terrain, interwoven with low-relief sedimentary basins
bounded by faults.

Rural populations are thinly spread across the mountainous regions. The basins, with
abundant arable land and fed by waters from the surrounding high mountains, sustain
higher densities of population, including large urban centers such as Kabul.

Faults dissect eastern Afghanistan

3 The magnitude, location and focal mechanism for the June 2022 earthquake have
been computed from seismic networks around the world. Satellite radar
interferometry — a remote sensing technique that compares images taken from a
satellite over a period of time — has yielded detailed measurements of ground
displacement during the earthquake. Considering these data, we determined that slip
likely occurred on a roughly north-south oriented left-lateral strike-slip fault parallel
to, and with an epicenter approximately 1.2 miles (2 kilometers) west of, and into the
hanging wall of, the North-Waziristan-Bannu Thrust Fault system, in a region of
exhumed and tightly folded sediments of Paleogene and Quaternary age.

Citation: Shnizai, Z., Talebian, M., Valkanotis, S., and Walker, R., 2022, Multiple
factors make Afghan communities vulnerable to earthquakes, Temblor,
http://doi.org/10.32858/temblor.266
4

Citation: Shnizai, Z., Talebian, M., Valkanotis, S., and Walker, R., 2022, Multiple
factors make Afghan communities vulnerable to earthquakes, Temblor,
http://doi.org/10.32858/temblor.266
 Focal mechanism, epicenter, landslide distribution and line-of-sight (LOS) displacements
measured from InSAR. Shallow slip occurs along a strike-slip fault ~2 km into the hanging-wall
of the North Waziristan-Bannu Thrust Fault, along the sharp eastern margin of the red LOS
displacements. Landslides (black and orange dots) are clustered around the ruptured fault. Map
compiled by S. Valkanotis using data from the European Space Agency and showing focal
mechanism and epicenter from GFZ (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam)

The quake resulted from the northward collision of India into Eurasia. The most
prominent structure within this zone is the Chaman Fault, which extends for much of
the distance from the Makran coast of Pakistan to the Hindu Kush in northeastern
Afghanistan. As the recent earthquake highlights, the fault, though prominent, is only
one part of a broad zone of deformation, in which multiple widely distributed and
often unmapped faults are present that can rupture in earthquakes large enough to
cause significant damage and loss of life.

Regional map of Afghanistan and the surrounding region. AMF, Alburz Marmul Fault; AF,
Andrab Fault; BTF, Bande Turkestan Fault; CBF, Central Badakhshan Fault; CF, Chaman Fault;
DMF, Dosi Mirzavalang Fault; GF, Gardiz Fault; HF, Herat Fault; KF, Konar Fault; MF, Maqur
Fault; PF, Panjshir Fault; SGF, Spin Ghar Fault. The yellow stars with numbers show locations

Citation: Shnizai, Z., Talebian, M., Valkanotis, S., and Walker, R., 2022, Multiple
factors make Afghan communities vulnerable to earthquakes, Temblor,
http://doi.org/10.32858/temblor.266
 of: 1) Takhar earthquake in 1998; 2) Nahrin earthquake in 2002; 3) Kabul earthquake in 1505;
Paktika earthquake in June 2022; 5) Quetta earthquake in 1935; 6) Bam earthquake in 2003; and
7) Tabas earthquake in 1978. Map compiled by Zakeria Shnizai

Surprising damage, but a common occurrence

The large death toll and widespread destruction caused by June’s moderate-sized
magnitude-6.1 earthquake are surprising compared to others around the world;
earthquakes of this magnitude and depth are generally far less destructive. But in this
region, the devastating effects of earthquakes such as this are, sadly, all too common.

The debris of a building after June 2022 earthquake in Paktika, Gayan District Aston Galay
Village. Photograph by Hamidullah Waizy, used with permission.

The June event is just one in a long line of damaging earthquakes that have hit
Afghanistan. More than 15,000 people have been killed in such events in the last 24

Citation: Shnizai, Z., Talebian, M., Valkanotis, S., and Walker, R., 2022, Multiple
factors make Afghan communities vulnerable to earthquakes, Temblor,
http://doi.org/10.32858/temblor.266
 years. Moderate to large earthquakes such as the Takhar earthquake (magnitude 6.5)
in 1998 and the Nahrin earthquake (magnitude 6.1) in 2002 individually claimed the
lives of thousands of people.

Similar situations exist across large parts of the interior of Asia, where the collisions
of India and Arabia with Eurasia have activated belts of faults stretching from the
Mediterranean to China, and where several factors combine to increase the
vulnerability of populations. Earthquake disasters in Iran such as at Bam in 2003,
Rudbar in 1990, Tabas in 1978 and Dasht-e-Bayaz in 1969, show the potential for
devastation. The Tabas earthquake, for example, a magnitude-7.3 quake, killed 85
percent of the entire population in this rural region in the east of the country.

Ruins of a village near Tabas, depopulated in the 1978 earthquake (Mw 7.3). Only a small number
of homes have been rebuilt in the 25 years between the earthquake and date of the photograph.
Photograph by Richard Walker

What makes the population so vulnerable?

Obviously, one of the factors that leads to increased vulnerability is the wide
distribution of active faults in the region. Although a few of the major faults, such as
the Chaman Fault in Afghanistan or the Main Kopeh Dagh Fault in Turkmenistan, slip

Citation: Shnizai, Z., Talebian, M., Valkanotis, S., and Walker, R., 2022, Multiple
factors make Afghan communities vulnerable to earthquakes, Temblor,
http://doi.org/10.32858/temblor.266
 at rates on the order of 1 centimeter per year (less than half an inch), other faults in
the region slip more slowly. The recurrence intervals between earthquakes in any one
area may be thousands of years. Because these shocks have not occurred in modern
history, they are rarely in the minds and cultural memories of local populations and
civic leaders. Without that memory, communities may not be prepared for a major
disaster and individuals may not know how to protect themselves during shaking.

A photo from Kabul showing mudbrick homes built on steep mountain sides. Photograph by
Zakeria Shnizai.

Construction styles are a second major factor in the vulnerability of rural populations.
Unreinforced adobe construction with traditional building methods is the dominant
style of rural construction across much of the Asian interior. Homes and other
buildings consist of a thick flat or domed roof of dried mud supported by timber, siting
on walls of mud brick or, in the case of the recently damaged villages in Afghanistan,
of stone blocks cemented with dried mud.

Citation: Shnizai, Z., Talebian, M., Valkanotis, S., and Walker, R., 2022, Multiple
factors make Afghan communities vulnerable to earthquakes, Temblor,
http://doi.org/10.32858/temblor.266
 These building styles are well suited to the climatic conditions. They insulate from
extreme heat and cold and make use of cheap and locally sourced materials. They are,
however, susceptible to collapse from shaking, with the collapse of their heavy walls
and roofs leading to high fatality rates.

Building damage from the 1997 Zirkuh earthquake, eastern Iran. The photograph was taken five
years later; note how structures (left) have been built using similar materials and methods to the
ruined pre-earthquake structures (right). Photograph by Richard Walker

The environment also plays a large role in vulnerability. Populations across much of
Asia are clustered in narrow fringes between desert and mountains, which provide
opportunities for settlement and agriculture and offer pathways for migration and
trade. But the mountain fringes are formed by active faults. Springs along the faults
are often the main source of water, bringing life to otherwise inhospitable lands.
Raised groundwater levels at the mountain edges can also be tapped through networks
of Qanats — a type of underground canal. But the proximity to active faults, when
combined with the traditional building styles, make nearby villages susceptible to even
moderate, local earthquakes.

Citation: Shnizai, Z., Talebian, M., Valkanotis, S., and Walker, R., 2022, Multiple
factors make Afghan communities vulnerable to earthquakes, Temblor,
http://doi.org/10.32858/temblor.266
 Reducing the risk
The continuing occurrence of destructive earthquakes in Afghanistan and
surrounding regions provides an urgency in designing and implementing strategies to
reduce vulnerabilities to earthquake hazards. Large cities and urban centers are
expanding rapidly, with past settlements of traditional adobe replaced by high-rise
blocks. Kabul, for instance, occupies a narrow north-south elongated basin that is
bounded by faults. It is an ancient city, with recorded large earthquakes in 1505 and
1891, yet its population and urban infrastructure has grown from 500,000 to 3 million
over past decades. Quetta — farther south along the Chaman Fault system in Pakistan
— suffered a large magnitude-7.7 earthquake in 1935. Historical records also
document damaging earthquakes elsewhere in Afghanistan, including Herat, Mazar-
e-Sharif and Kandahar.

There is no quick and simple way to build resilience in regions such as those damaged
in the June earthquake, and effective efforts toward the reduction of risk for future
populations likely involve a wide range of disciplines working together. Geological,
geophysical and historical analyses are all required to develop archives of past events,
10 identify active faults and ensure that urban expansion and infrastructure development
are based on the best available knowledge.

Engineering has an important role through the design of simple strategies for building
with traditional materials and designs. But the success of any program ultimately rests
on the ability to convince populations that there are ways of mitigating severe damage
and loss by understanding hazards and by improving construction methods, which in
turn only fully work if there are policy frameworks in place for their enforcement, with
financial support in place.

Over the last few decades, Iranian scientists have worked to convince the government
of the increased risk from earthquakes as cities grow. Collaboration between Iranian
scientists and policymakers has now led to development of building codes that are
revised every five years to improve building resilience. The latest update is expected
to be released in 2023 and will incorporate updated knowledge of earthquake sources
and active faults.

Within cities, it is the responsibility of builders to follow such codes. In rural areas,
the situation is different, as building a resistant structure requires legislation as well
as financial support. In rural parts of Iran, this support can come from long-term
grants and loans from the government, which are conditional on builders following
design standards and the guided plan of the village. Many villages with vulnerable
adobe buildings still exist; however, these efforts will gradually improve the situation.

Citation: Shnizai, Z., Talebian, M., Valkanotis, S., and Walker, R., 2022, Multiple
factors make Afghan communities vulnerable to earthquakes, Temblor,
http://doi.org/10.32858/temblor.266
 In Afghanistan, earthquake-resistant construction design guidelines were replaced
with a formal building code in 2012. As in Iran, the building of resistant structures
requires not only a code, but also effective enforcement and financial support. Much
of the progress in Iran has occurred immediately after recent earthquake disasters,
before governmental priorities shift to other concerns. We hope that if some good can
come from the recent Afghanistan earthquake it is in effecting a long-term increase in
resilience.

Acknowledgement

In writing this article we are particularly indebted to the work and ideas of Nicolas
Ambraseys (1929-2012), Manuel Berberian, and James Jackson

Further Reading
For those wishing to learn more about the earthquake hazards of the Asian interior,
we recommend “A history of Persian Earthquakes” (Cambridge University Press) and
“Earthquakes in Afghanistan” (Seismological Research Letters, 74, 2003) by
11 Ambraseys and co-authors. We also recommend works by Berberian and Yeats,
including “Tehran: an earthquake time bomb” (in GSA Special Paper 525), and the
papers “Fatal attraction: living with earthquakes, the growth of villages into
megacities, and earthquake vulnerability in the modern world” by James Jackson
(10.1098/rsta.2006.1805) and “Uncharted seismic risk” by Philip England and James
Jackson (10.1038/ngeo1168).

Citation: Shnizai, Z., Talebian, M., Valkanotis, S., and Walker, R., 2022, Multiple
factors make Afghan communities vulnerable to earthquakes, Temblor,
http://doi.org/10.32858/temblor.266