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Environmental crisis in Lake Urmia, Iran: a systematic review of causes,

negative consequences and possible solutions

Conference Paper · January 2013

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4737.0088

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 Environmental Crisis in Lake Urmia, Iran: A Systematic Review of
Causes, Negative Consequences and Possible Solutions

Vahid Garousi1,2, Aref Najafi, Azar Samadi, Kabir Rasouli, Behzad Khanaliloo1,2

1: Schulich School of Engineering, University of Calgary

2: Lake Urmia Conservation Institute (LUCI), Calgary, Alberta, Canada
vgarousi@ucalgary.ca, {vahid, aref, azer, kabir, behzad@saveurmia.com

ABSTRACT
Lake Urmia, located in NW of Iran, is the third largest salt-water lake on earth. Due
to poor water management and construction of 48+ dams, more than 70% of the lake
surface areas has already dried up. As a result, the retrieval of the lake shore has left a
salt deposit behind and exposed to wind. Studies have predicted that salt storms from
the dried lake will have serious impacts on the lives of 76 million people living
around the lake. We are undertaking a systematic literature review in this article on a
pool of 36 papers carefully selected from the literature, which have studied the Lake
Urmia crisis in recent years. The systematic review synthesizes the evidence and
insights reported in the existing body of knowledge in this area. This article is aimed
to raise awareness and capture the attention of international organizations, NGOs and
activists in the international arena and neighbouring countries. We hope that this
review article would increase awareness for this major international environmental
crisis in making and alert environmental and governmental decision makers in the
countries around the lake.

1-INTRODUCTION
Registered as a Biosphere Reserve by UNESCO and listed as a wetland of
international importance under the 1971 Ramsar Convention (Nazaridoust, 2011),
Lake Urmia accommodates one of the world’s richest biodiversity. More than 210
species of birds, such as flamingos, pelicans, spoonbills, and gulls, as well as many
species of reptiles, amphibians and mammals, such as yellow deer inhabit the lake
and the surrounding area.
During the last decade (since 2000), Lake Urmia has been shrinking significantly and
its depth has fallen by almost seven meters, compared to pre-2000 levels. Experts
believe that surface flow diversions, groundwater extraction, and the lack of efficient
water management are the main reasons. Lake Urmia holds an estimated 8 billion
cubic metric tons of salt (Eimanifar & Mohebbi, 2007). According to experts, if the
lake completely dries up, which can happen in less than 10 years from now, a vast
amount of salt will be released into the region resulting in an ecological, agricultural,
and social catastrophe not only in Azerbaijani cities of Iran, but also in neighbouring
countries such as Turkey, Iraq and Azerbaijan (Pengra, February 2012). It will force
many people to abandon their villages and towns around the lake and a vast majority
of the flora and fauna will be lost permanently (Pengra, February 2012). The UNEP,
in its Global Environmental Alert Services (GEAS) bulletin dated February 2012,
1
declared the status of the lake as “alarming,” which requires attention and immediate
actions to avoid environmental catastrophe (Pengra, February 2012).
More than 100 scientific articles have been published about the Lake Urmia since
1970’s. About 36 of those papers have focused on recent drying trend of the lake, its
recent water-level changes, causes of the crisis, its negative consequences and
possible solutions to the problem. To summarize the body of knowledge in this area,
we are undertaking and reporting a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) in this article
on the pool of 36 papers which have focused on the Lake Urmia crisis.
The remainder of paper is organized as follows. Section 2 discusses a similar disaster
(the case of Aral Sea) and related work. In Section 3, we describe our research
method. Section 4 presents the results of the systematic review. Finally, Section 5
concludes the paper.
2-A SIMILAR DISASTER AND RELATED WORK
A Similar Disaster and its Impacts
Before presenting our SLR study and its results, we present a brief overview of a
similar recent disaster and its impacts. This would set the context and show the
seriousness of the crisis.
Formerly the world’s fourth largest lake with an area of 68,000 square kilometres, the
Aral Sea was a lake that lay between Kazakhstan in the north and Uzbekistan in the
south. This lake started to shrink since the early 1960s and owes overwhelmingly to
the expansion of irrigation in Soviet Union has drained its two tributary rivers. Lake
level has fallen 23 m, area shrunk 74%, volume decreased 90%, and salinity grew
from 10 g/l to more than 100 g/l, causing major human health issues (Jensena, et al.,
1997; Micklin, 2007), and also negative ecological changes, including decimation of
native fish species, and initiation of dust/salt storms (Micklin, 2007). The population
residing around the lake has also been negatively impacted. There is little hope in the
foreseeable future to fully restore the Aral Sea, but measures to preserve/rehabilitate
parts of the water body and the deltas have started (Micklin, 2007). Scientists and
environmentalists believe that Lake Urmia and the population around the lake will
soon end up in a fate similar to Aral Sea (Boms & Arya, Last accessed: Sept. 2012;
Pengra, February 2012).
Related Work
A search in the academic article search engines, such as Google Scholar, for “Lake
Urmia”, at the time of this writing, returned 100+ scientific articles about Lake Urmia,
which have studied different aspects of the lake, e.g., the Artemia population (Agh, et
al., 2007), its water-level fluctuations (Reveshty & Maruyama, 2010) and various
articles studying the causes, impacts and solution of the current crisis (which we will
review in this article). However, no systematic review of the existing literature has
been reported on the crisis and that is the goal of this paper. There is a recent related
study by (Hoseinpour, et al., 2010), which investigated causes, results (i.e., impacts)
and solutions of the crisis, which was an insightful study, but it did not conduct a
SLR study as we conduct in this work.

2
3-RESEARCH GOAL AND METHOD
Research Method
SLR studies are popular in different disciplines and many SLR articles have been
published in the literature, e.g., in environmental sciences (Pullin & Stewart, 2006),
social sciences (Petticrew & Roberts, 2005), and software engineering (Budgen &
Brereton, 2006). This SLR is carried out based on the procedures and guidelines
provided in (Budgen & Brereton, 2006; Petticrew & Roberts, 2005; Pullin & Stewart,
2006), which can be summarized in the following steps:
1. Identification of research goal and research questions
2. Selection of the “primary” studies, and quality assessment of the studies under
review
3. Data extraction
4. Data synthesis and reporting
Steps 1 and 2 are discussed in the next sub-sections. We utilized Steps 3 and 4 to
synthesize the results of this study which are reported in Section 4.
Goal and Research Questions
The goal of this SLR study is to systematically review the state-of-the-art (i.e.,
existing articles) in the scope of environmental crisis in Lake Urmia to review,
synthesize and extract the causes of this crisis, its negative consequences of and
possible solutions as proposed by researchers in the existing articles. Based on the
above goal, the following three research questions are raised.
 RQ 1 – What are the causes of the environmental crisis in Lake Urmia?
 RQ 2 – What are the negative impacts and consequences of the crisis, currently
occurring and also expected to occur in future?
 RQ 3 – What possible solutions have been proposed by researchers in this area?
Study Selection and Quality Assessment
To find the relevant primary studies, we searched the following three major online
academic article search engines: (1) Google Scholar, (2) Microsoft Academic Search,
and (3) Science Direct.
In order to ensure that we included as many relevant publications as possible in the
pool of selected studies, we used the following keywords: “lake Urmia”, “Urmia lake”
and other (wrongly-used) spellings as well: Oroumiyeh, Orumiyeh and Urumiyeh. To
ensure that we derive our results based on sound studies with reasonable quality, our
(technical) quality-assessment criteria for including the papers were as follows. We
ensured that studies have been peer reviewed and appeared in accredited venues
(journals and conferences). Although the subject matter has recently started to
become an international issue, it is still mostly a national issue (inside Iran). Thus, a
large number of non-English articles (mostly in Farsi) have appeared on the issue of
Lake Urmia. Since most of the authors of the current paper are well versed in Farsi, in
addition to English articles, we also included three good-quality articles written in
Farsi (Golabian, 2010a; Jahanbakhsh, et al., 2011; S.; Jalili, et al., 2011).

3
After the initial search and the follow-up analysis for exclusion of low-quality
publications, the pool of publications was finalized with 36 studies (also called
“primary studies”)1. The reader can refer to the references section for the full list of
all primary studies. The final pool of selected publications has also been published as
an online repository using Google Docs (Garousi, Last accessed: Sept. 2012).
4-RESULTS OF THE SYSTEMATIC REVIEW
We discuss first the general trends and breakdown of the papers in our pool of study.
Afterwards, results are presented for each of the RQs 1, 2 and 3.
Trends and Breakdown of Papers
As the crisis has becoming more serious in recent years, i.e., as of September 2012,
70% of the lake has dried up (Head of the West Azerbaijan Province's Environment
Organization, News date: Sept. 7, 2012), we were expecting to see more papers about
this crisis. To assess this hypothesis, Figure 1 shows the publications trend by year.
Note that since this study was conducted in September 2012, data for 2012 are partial.
As we can see, more papers have been appearing in recent years, denoting the
increasing criticality of the crisis.

Figure 1. Publications trend by year

Also, we have lately observed that the issue has gone beyond only a national (Iranian)
issue and has become an
international issue. To assess this,
we extracted the countries of
affiliation for the articles authors.
The data are shown in Figure 2. As
it can be seen, authors and
researchers from countries other
than Iran, e.g., Turkey and
Switzerland, have shown interest
to conduct research about the issue. Figure 2. Authors’ country of affiliation
The next classification we wanted

1 (Abbaspour & Nazaridoust, 2007; Abbaspour;, et al., 2012; Ahmadzadeh Kokya, et al., 2011; AA; Alesheikh, et al.,
2007; A. Alesheikh, et al., 2004; Alipour, 2006; Arash Rad, et al., 2011; Asem, et al., 2012; Bakhtiaria & Zeinoddinia,
2011; Delju, et al., 2012; Eimanifar & Mohebbi, 2007; Golabian, 2010a, 2010c; Hassanzadeh, et al., 2011; Hedayatizade,
et al., 2010; Heidari, et al., 2010; Hoseinpour, et al., 2010; Jahanbakhsh, et al., 2011; Sheida Jalili, et al., 2011; S.; Jalili,
et al., 2011; Karbassi, et al., 2010; Manaffar, et al., 2011; Meijer, et al., 2012; Moghtased-Azar, et al., 2012; Mohebbi, et
al., 2011; Nikbakht, et al., 2012; Nourani & Sayyah Fard, 2012; Rasuly, 2006; Reveshty & Maruyama, 2010;
Rezvantalab S. & Amrollahi M. H., 2011; Seif & Paein Koulaei, 2005; Seyd Kazem Alavipanah , et al., 2007; Stevens, et
al., 2012; Talebizadeh & Moridnejad, 2011; Zarghami, 2011; Zeinoddinia, et al., 2009)

4
to have was to breakdown the papers by their focus area, in terms of each of our RQs
1, 2 and 3. Figure 3 shows this classification. In addition to addressing our three RQs,
several articles also reported water-level measurements, which we think are also
related to the subject of our review study (i.e., showing the trend of decreasing water
level/volume).
Last but not least, we wanted to assess the yearly-trend of focus on each of the above
areas. Figure 4 shows that trend. As we can observe, in recent years, more and more
articles have reported the causes of the crisis and also its consequences. Next, we
review and synthesize our SLR findings for the three RQs.

Figure 3. Breakdown of the papers by

Figure 4. Trend of focus areas by year
their focus
Causes (RQ 1)
After our systematic and careful review of all the 36 articles, we found that 25 articles
have reported causes of the issue. Three main types of causes have been reported: (1)
construction of dams (in 16 papers), (2) poor water management policies (16 papers),
and (3) construction of a primitive-type (gravel) causeway diving the lake into two
sub-lakes in north and south (10 papers), with almost no connectivity. The reader is
referred to the online spreadsheet in Google Docs (Garousi, Last accessed: Sept. 2012)
to see the list of exact paper titles discussing each of the above causes.
The Iranian Water Resource Management Organization has a comprehensive website
including all the information about dams already-built, those in construction and also
the planned ones (Website of the
Iranian Water Resource Management
Organization, Last accessed: Sept. 18,
2012). According to this website, as of
Sept. 2012, 48 dams have been built on
the basin of the Lake Urmia. The
locations of the 10 largest in-use dams
are shown in Figure 5. The dam named
Shahid (Martyr) Kazemi is the largest
in terms of capacity and is clearly
visible in the Google Maps (Figure 5).
According to (Alipour, 2006),
historically, the volume of water in the
lake in normal conditions was
estimated to be 19 billion m3.
According to our calculations based on
Figure 5- The location of the 10 largest
dams in the Lake Urmia basin.
5
data from (Website of the Iranian Water Resource Management Organization, Last
accessed: Sept. 18, 2012), the total volume of water behind the 48 dams is about 2.5
billion m3, about 13% of the lake’s health capacity. By considering the extra flowing
water prevented by dams, one can clearly see the major impact of dams in the crisis.
For space constraints, we are not able to discuss the other two main causes in this
article (poor water management policies and construction of a primitive-type
causeway) and postpone them to our future articles.
Negative Impacts and Consequences (RQ 2)
Negative impacts and consequences of the crisis have unfortunately already started.
Based on the explicit discussions and evidences provided in the papers, we classify
the impacts in the following categories: environmental (6 papers), agricultural (13
papers), health (5 papers), social (6 papers), and economic (10 papers). Of course,
these categories are not mutually exclusive, but rather inter-related, e.g., occurrence
of salt storms from the lake (Abbaspour;, et al., 2012) will lead to environmental
damage, and then to agricultural, health, social and economic issues as a result.
The major risk in this context seems to be the salt storms, which have unfortunately
already started, according to observations of trusted witnesses. Saline areas should
not be left bare for extended periods of time, especially where the sites are
susceptible to wind or water erosion. Wind can cause salt particulates migration in the
region. In addition of health related issues for the residence of the region, it can have
impact on ecosystem of the region.
Depending on the wind strength, direction and pattern, salt particulates can migrate
and deposit on the vast area in the region. This would cause increase in the salt
content of the soil in the whole region which can cause environmental impacts. The
worsening situation of the lake will have deep and disturbing results on the social life
in the many cities around the lake.
For example, in an radio interview (The World Radio News Magazine, Sept. 11,
2011), Dr. Esmail Kahrom, professor of environmental sciences at the University of
Tehran, warned based on scientific grounds that disappearance of Lake Urmia will
result in severe salt storms. Dr. Esmail Kahrom pointed out that already the salt
storms have started since more than half of
the lake’s surface is now gone and a thick
layer of salt has appeared. He added that “It
[the salt storm] can travel up to about 500
kilometers”. He also added that: “It has
been estimated that six to eight cities will
be totally destroyed, covered by layers and
layers of salt. That’s four to fourteen
million people that have to be displaced to
avoid the storm of salt within that region”.
To show the impact of such devastating salt
storms already begun, the radius of 500 Km
from the lake has been visualized in Figure
Figure 6-Radius of 500 Km from the
6 (using the Google Earth software). It is
lake (using the Google Earth software)
clear to see that not only Iran, but all the

6
neighbouring countries, including Turkey, Iraq, Armenia, Georgia and even southern
Russia will be impacted.
Possible Solutions (RQ 3)
Seven papers (Abbaspour & Nazaridoust, 2007; Golabian, 2010a, 2010b; Hoseinpour,
et al., 2010; Seif & Paein Koulaei, 2005; Zarghami, 2011; Zeinoddinia, et al., 2009)
have proposed evidence-based and scientific solutions to the crisis. However, all
authors have noted that coming up with a detailed rescue plan would require in-depth
collection of relevant data and analyzing the overall water management of the region,
and their feasibility should be carefully investigated with respect to existing
constraints (political, environmental, etc.).
The two principal approaches to the problem are: (1) to adjust water allocation within
the basin (mainly from the 48+ dams) to allow an adequate incoming flow to sustain
the dying Lake Urmia, and (2) to import (divert) water from the neighbouring basins,
e.g., Aras River in the border of Iran-Azerbaijan, proposed by (Hoseinpour, et al.,
2010; Zarghami, 2011), in a distance of about 81 Km from Lake Urmia, and Lake
Van in Turkey, a distance of about 110 Km.
Reducing the amount of water diverted for agriculture, domestic and industrial use, or
at least curtailing the growth in these water uses, may help stop or slow the decline of
Lake Urmia. (Abbaspour & Nazaridoust, 2007) have produced an estimate of inflow
required to maintain the lake. They estimate that an annual volume of about 3 million
cubic metres would be the ecological water requirement of Lake Urmia which would
"keep the ecological functions of the lake sustainable" and allow the survival of a
viable Artemia urmiana population.
5-CONCLUSIONS
We conducted and reported a systematic literature review in this article on a pool of
36 papers which have reported causes, negative consequences and possible solutions
of the environmental crisis in Lake Urmia, Iran. The systematic review synthesized
the evidence and insights reported in the existing body of knowledge in this area.
This article is aimed to raise awareness and capture the attention of international
organizations, NGOs and activists across the world and especially in the
neighbouring countries. We hope that this review article would increase awareness
for this serious international crisis in making and alert environmental and
governmental decision makers in the countries around the lake.
The near future does not look good for this major lake in the region. Its death, if not
prevented, will bring misery and more stress to the already-stressed and unstable
region with many tensions among different nations and ethnic groups. It is the authors’
sincere hope that with the active participation and collaboration of the locals, Iranian
government, international organizations, NGOs and activists in the international
arena, this major environmental crisis can be dealt with in a timely manner. Instead of
news releases and meetings as they are being reported inside Iran, concrete actions
are needed.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

7
The authors would like to thank the University of Calgary for providing a travel grant
for the presentation of this conference paper.
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