water

Article
Effects of Water Level Decline in Lake Urmia, Iran,
on Local Climate Conditions
Amir Hossein Dehghanipour 1,2 , Davood Moshir Panahi 1,3, * , Hossein Mousavi 4 ,
Zahra Kalantari 3,5 and Massoud Tajrishy 6
1 School of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran 16846-13114, Iran;
A.Dehghanipour@tudelft.nl
2 Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology,
2628 CN Delft, The Netherlands
3 Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University,
SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden; zahra.kalantari@natgeo.su.se
4 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, AmirKabir University of Technology,
Tehran 15875-4413, Iran; hoseinmousavi@aut.ac.ir
5 Navarino Environmental Observatory, 24001 Messinia, Greece
6 Department of Civil Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran 11155, Iran; Tajrishy@sharif.edu
* Correspondence: moshirpanahi@natgeo.su.se




Received: 7 July 2020; Accepted: 28 July 2020; Published: 30 July 2020


Abstract: Lake Urmia in northwestern Iran is the largest lake in Iran and the second largest saltwater
lake in the world. The water level in Lake Urmia has decreased dramatically in recent years, due to
drought, climate change, and the overuse of water resources for irrigation. This shrinking of the
lake may affect local climate conditions, assuming that the lake itself affects the local climate. In this
study, we quantified the lake’s impact on the local climate by analyzing hourly time series of data
on climate variables (temperature, vapor pressure, relative humidity, evaporation, and dewpoint
temperature for all seasons, and local lake/land breezes in summer) for the period 1961–2016. For this,
we compared high quality, long-term climate data obtained from Urmia and Saqez meteorological
stations, located 30 km and 185 km from the lake center, respectively. We then investigated the effect
of lake level decrease on the climate variables by dividing the data into periods 1961–1995 (normal
lake level) and 1996–2016 (low lake level). The results showed that at Urmia station (close to the lake),
climate parameters displayed fewer fluctuations and were evidently affected by Lake Urmia compared
with those at Saqez station. The effects of the lake on the local climate increased with increasing
temperature, with the most significant impact in summer and the least in winter. The results also
indicated that, despite decreasing lake level, local climate conditions are still influenced by Lake
Urmia, but to a lesser extent.

Keywords: Lake Urmia; local climate; temperature adjustment; lake/land breeze

1. Introduction
Climate conditions in lake basins can be affected by the lake itself, in addition to geographical
factors, such as longitude, altitude, and large-scale climate variability [1]. The combined effects of
these factors led to particular natural climate conditions in lake basins [2,3]. A few studies have
examined the effects of lakes on the local climate and have found marked influences. For instance,
the Great Lakes have been shown to play a significant role in the local climate by: (1) damping natural
temperature changes in all seasons, leading to cooler summers and warmer winters; (2) increasing cloud
cover, precipitation, and snowfall over and leeward (downwind) of the lakes in winter; (3) decreasing
summertime convective clouds and rainfall over the lakes [4,5]; (4) giving rise to mild cooling breezes

Water 2020, 12, 2153; doi:10.3390/w12082153 www.mdpi.com/journal/water

Water 2020, 12, 2153 2 of 15

that help orchards and vineyards on the lakeshore to flourish; (5) exerting a harshening effect on snow
and ice storms [6,7].
On comparing climate parameters and changes in the surface level of the Dead Sea, [8] found that
decreasing lake level led to a decrease in relative humidity and cool lake breezes, resulting in increases
in temperature and evaporation from the local region around the lake. Ref. [9] examined the effects of
artificial and natural lakes on the local climate and found that the presence of a lake can either enhance
or reduce the impact of large-scale climate changes in the local region around the lake.
The water level in Lake Urmia, the largest lake in Iran and the second largest saltwater lake in the
world, has dramatically declined in recent years, due to human and climate change drivers [10,11].
The reasons for the decreases in the area and level of Lake Urmia, and management strategies to
restore the lake, have been addressed by many researchers over recent years. Most of this research
has emphasized the role of human activities, drought, and climate change in drying out the lake
e.g., [12–15]. The different management scenarios proposed to save Lake Urmia are based on reducing
water consumption in the agriculture sector and on adaptation to drought and climate change
e.g., [16–18].
However, the effect of changes in Lake Urmia on the local climate have not been addressed.
In fact, there are no data in the literature confirming that the lake has an impact on the local climate in
surrounding areas, which is essential information when studying the effect of changes in lake level on
local climate change. In order to identify the impact of Lake Urmia on the local climate, in the first
part of this study we compared time series data on climate parameters measured at meteorological
stations in Urmia (close to the lake) and Saqez (far from the lake) during the period 1961–2016. We then
divided data for the period 1961–2016 into two periods representing normal lake level (1961–1995) and
low lake level (1996–2016) and investigated the effect of decreasing lake level on the local climate.

2. Study Site
Lake Urmia and its basin (area approximately 52,000 km2 ) are located in the semi-arid region
of northwestern Iran (35◦ 400 –38◦ 300 N, 44◦ 070 –47◦ 530 E) (Figure 1a). The basin is endorheic (closed),
with a mean annual precipitation of 400 mm (most of which falls in winter and spring), a mean
annual temperature of 20 ◦ C [14], and a mean annual relative humidity ranging between 52 and 64%.
More than five million people live in the Urmia basin and agriculture plays a significant role in the
livelihoods of these people [19]. The average depth of the lake is 6 m and the maximum depth is 16 m.
The lake wetland was registered as an international Ramsar site in 1975 and as a UNESCO Biosphere
Reserve in 1977. The water level and area of Lake Urmia have decreased dramatically since the late
1990s [11]. Time series of Lake Urmia level from 1965 to 2018 are shown in Figure 1b. The location of
the two meteorological stations from which observed data on climate parameters were obtained for
the present analysis are shown in Figure 1a.
Water 2020, 12, 2153 3 of 15
Water 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 17

Urmia
station
Lake
Urmia

Saqez
station

(a)

1278 Lake level (m)

1277
1276
1275
1274
1273
1272
1271
(b) Year
1270
1966 1974 1982 1990 1998 2006 2014

Figure 1. (a) Maps showing the location of Lake Urmia and its basin in northwestern Iran and of the
Figure 1. (a) Maps showing
two meteorological stationsthe location
from whichof Lake
data Urmia
were andand
taken, its (b)
basin in northwestern
changes Iran
in the water andinofLake
level the
two meteorological
Urmia, 1965–2018. stations from which data were taken, and (b) changes in the water level in Lake
Urmia, 1965-2018.
3. Methodology
3. Methodology
3.1. Local Breezes around Lake Urmia
3.1. Local
LocalBreezes
breezes around Lake Urmia
are winds that regularly blow in some sub-regions due to unique geographical
features
Localsuch as mountains
breezes are windsand thatlakes,
regularlyand blow
regional thermal
in some differences
sub-regions duecaused by these
to unique features.
geographical
The range
features of these
such local breezes
as mountains is limited,
and lakes, and they
and regional are usually
thermal restricted
differences causedto the
by lower layers ofThe
these features. the
atmosphere, so they only affect a small region. In the area closest to lakes,
range of these local breezes is limited, and they are usually restricted to the lower layers of the temperature differences
between the land
atmosphere, so theyandonly
water surface
affect during
a small the day
region. In theandarea
night can give
closest rise totemperature
to lakes, the formation of a local
differences
between the land and water surface during the day and night can give rise to the formation ofthe
lake/land breeze. The water surface is slower to heat up than the surrounding land during day,
a local
so the temperature of the land increases earlier than the temperature of
lake/land breeze. The water surface is slower to heat up than the surrounding land during the day, the water surface. The air
above
so the water surface
the temperature of theisland
thenincreases
colder, denser, and more
earlier than pressurizedofthan
the temperature the the airsurface.
water above the Theland
air
surface, and therefore the breeze blows from lake to land (lake breeze) during
above the water surface is then colder, denser, and more pressurized than the air above the land the day, beginning in the
morningand
surface, andtherefore
reaching the
its maximum
breeze blows velocity
from at noon
lake (Figure
to land 2a).breeze)
(lake As theduring
sun goes thedown, the opposite
day, beginning in
occurs,
the as theand
morning landreaching
cools more its quickly
maximum thanvelocity
the water. The temperature
at noon (Figure 2a). of Asthe
theland
sunsurface decreases
goes down, the
earlier than
opposite the temperature
occurs, of themore
as the land cools landquickly
surfacethanduring thethe night
water. and
The becomes colder,
temperature of theso thesurface
land breeze
blows fromearlier
decreases the land to the
than the temperature
lake (land breeze)of the(Figure 2b). Theduring
land surface lake breeze is generally
the night stronger
and becomes than the
colder, so
land breeze since the temperature contrast between land surface and lake
the breeze blows from the land to the lake (land breeze) (Figure 2b). The lake breeze is generally surface is higher during the
day thanthan
stronger at night.
the land breeze since the temperature contrast between land surface and lake surface
Land/lake
is higher duringbreezes
the dayare quite
than atnoticeable
night. in the area around Lake Urmia during the summer, when the
temperature
Land/lake breezes are quite noticeable inand
difference between land surface thelake
areasurface
aroundisLake
highUrmia
and large-scale
during the winds are limited.
summer, when
the temperature difference between land surface and lake surface is high and large-scale winds are
Water 2020, 12, 2153 4 of 15

Water 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 4 of 17

Water 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 4 of 17
In this study, the local breeze was quantified only at Urmia meteorological station, which is located
limited.
near In this
the lake, andstudy, thesummer.
only in local breeze was quantified only at Urmia meteorological station, which is
limited. In this study, the local breeze was quantified only at Urmia meteorological station, which is
located near the lake, and only in summer.
located near the lake, and only in summer.
6:00 18:00
6:00 18:00

9:00 21:00
9:00 21:00

12:00
12:00 00:00
00:00

15:00 3:00
15:00 3:00

(a) (b)
(a) (b)
Figure 2. Schematic diagrams showing formation of (a) lake breeze during the day and (b) land breeze
Figure 2. Schematic diagrams showing formation of (a) lake breeze during the day and (b) land breeze
during the2.night,
Figure at the
Schematic edge ofshowing
diagrams Lake Urmia.
formation of (a) lake breeze during the day and (b) land breeze
during the night, at the edge of Lake Urmia.
during the night, at the edge of Lake Urmia.
3.2. Vapor Pressure, Relative Humidity, and Dewpoint Temperature
3.2. Vapor Pressure, Relative Humidity, and Dewpoint Temperature
3.2. Vaporvapor
Water Pressure,
is the Relative
mostHumidity,
important and Dewpoint Temperature
greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, and the amount of water
Water
vapor inWater vapor
the air is
determines the most important
the important greenhouse
humidity. greenhouse
The maximum gas amount
in the atmosphere, and the
of water vapor thatamount
can be of water in
present
vapor is the most gas in the atmosphere, and the amount of water
vapor
thevapor
air—i.e.,in the
theair determines
saturation the
point—is humidity.
a The
function maximum
of temperature amount of
(Figurewater
3). vapor
The air that
is can be
saturated present
by water
in the air determines the humidity. The maximum amount of water vapor that can be present
in the
vapor in air—i.e.,
two ways: the(i)saturation
by point—is
increasing the a functionatofa temperature
humidity constant (Figure 3).until
temperature The air
the issaturation
saturated point
by
in the air—i.e., the saturation point—is a function of temperature (Figure 3). The air is saturated by
water vapor in two ways: (i) by increasing the humidity at a constant temperature until the saturation
is reached—the
water vapor invapor two ways: pressure
(i) byinincreasing
this condition is calledatsaturated
the humidity a constantvapor pressure
temperature andthe
until is saturation
represented
point is reached—the vapor pressure in this condition is called saturated vapor pressure and is
es ; (ii)isby
by point decreasing vapor
reached—the the temperature
pressure inatthisa constant
conditionvapor pressure
is called untilvapor
saturated the saturation
pressure and point
is is
represented by es; (ii) by decreasing the temperature at a constant vapor pressure until the saturation
represented by e ; (ii) by decreasing the temperature at a constant vapor pressure
reached—the temperature in this condition is called dewpoint temperature and is represented by TDEW
s until the saturation
point is reached—the temperature in this condition is called dewpoint temperature and is
point3).is reached—the temperature in this condition is called dewpoint temperature and is
(Figure
represented by TDEW (Figure 3).
represented by TDEW (Figure 3).
Pv
Pv
RH  100%
Liquid
Liquid RH  100%

V apor
es V apor
es
Increase vapor
Increase vapor
ea A
ea A
Decrease T
Decrease T

T DEW TA T
T DEW TA T
Figure 3. Graph of vapor pressure (Pv) against temperature (T), showing the position of saturated
Figure
Figure Graph
3. 3. Graphofofvapor
vaporpressure
pressure(P
(Pv v)) against
against temperature
temperature (T),(T), showing
showingthe
theposition
positionofofsaturated
saturated
vapor pressure (es) and dewpoint temperature (TDEW). RH = relative humidity.
vapor
vapor pressure
pressure (es(e ) anddewpoint
) sand dewpointtemperature
temperature(T (TDEW RH= =
DEW).).RH relative
relativehumidity.
humidity.
Water 2020, 12, 2153 5 of 15

Relative humidity (RH) is the ratio of vapor pressure in the air (ea ) to saturated vapor pressure
(es ). It is usually expressed as a percentage. Relative humidity is a function of temperature, since a
decreasing temperature leads to a decrease in saturated vapor pressure and results in increasing relative
air humidity, and vice versa (see Figure 3).
Evaporation from Lake Urmia leads to changes in water vapor in the region around
the lake, resulting, in turn, in changes in vapor pressure parameters, relative humidity, and
dewpoint temperature.

3.3. Methodology
The main aims of this study were to quantify the effect of Lake Urmia on the local climate and
examine how changes in the lake level have affected the local climate. The meteorological stations
at Urmia and Saqez were chosen as the sources of climate data for two main reasons: (i) they have
a large amount of time series data (since 1961) [20]; (ii) Urmia station is the closest station to Lake
Urmia (30 km to the lake center) and Saqez is the farthest from Lake Urmia (185 km to the lake center)
(see Table S1 in Supplementary Materials (SM) for details). Hourly time series of climate parameters in
winter, spring, summer, and autumn in the period 1961 to 2016 were selected for the analysis.
At Urmia station, there is a high possibility of Lake Urmia and water level variations in the lake
affecting climate variables, while Saqez station is most likely too far from the lake for climate variables
to be affected. Saqez station is also located in mountainous terrain, which can overcome any lake effects.
To investigate the overall impact of the lake on the local climate, hourly average time series of climate
variables measured at the two stations in all seasons were compared, based on differences in statistical
indicators (average, median, deviation from line 1:1, and standard deviation). To investigate the impact
of lake level change on the local climate change, the study period was divided into two (1961–1995 and
1996–2016). The split-point chosen was 1995 because the maximum level of the lake occurred in that
year and since then the lake level has declined (Figure 1b). In each period, hourly averages of climate
parameters in winter and summer were compared for the two stations, since these seasons experience
the least and most change, respectively, in climate conditions through the day and night.
The climate variables assessed were temperature, vapor pressure, relative humidity, dewpoint
temperature, and evaporation at the Urmia and Saqez stations. Local lake breeze/land breeze effects
were investigated only for the Urmia station and only in the summer season, when calm conditions
prevail in the region.

4. Results and Discussions

4.1. Effects of Lake Urmia on the Local Climate

A schematic diagram of land/lake breeze directions is shown in Figure 4a. Wind direction on an
hourly scale at Urmia station during the day and night in summer is shown in Figure 4b,c, respectively.
The results indicated that the prevailing wind direction is related to lake breeze in daytime (06:00 to
15:00 h) and to land breeze at night (18:00 to 03:00 h). Full descriptions of wind direction (land direction,
lake direction, other direction) are provided in Table S2 in SM. The speed of the lake breeze is around
3.5 knots at 6:00, 9:00, and 12:00 h, but decreases to around 2.6 knots at 15:00 h (afternoon), due to
the reduction in temperature difference between lake and land surface in the afternoon (Figure 4d).
The average speed of the land breezes is 2.5 knots and it varies within a narrower range, due to the
smaller difference in temperature between lake and land surface at night (Figure 4d).
Water 2020, 12, 2153 6 of 15
Water 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 6 of 17

Wind direction in day time Wind direction at night

Lake breeze

Land breeze

Urmia station

(a)

Wind direction in day time Wind direction at night

6 9 0 3
6:00 9:00 00:00 16.0% 3:00
20.8%
30.7%

46.3%
53.7%

69.3%
79.2% 84.0%
12:00
12 15:0015 18:0018 21
21:00
25.5% 28.5% 24.3%
40.7%
59.3%
74.5% 71.5% 75.7%
Lake breeze Land breeze
Other directions (b) Other directions (c)
Summer
3.6

3.4
Breeze speed ( Knots)

3.2

3.0

2.8

2.6

2.4
Land Lake Land
2.2 breeze breeze breeze
(d)
2.0
00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21
Hour

Figure 4. (a)4.Schematic
Figure diagram
(a) Schematic of land/lake
diagram breezes
of land/lake direction
breezes (inspired
direction by [21]).
(inspired Hourly
by [21]). wind wind
Hourly direction
at Urmia meteorological station in summer (b) in daytime and (c) at night. (d) Speed of lake
direction at Urmia meteorological station in summer (b) in daytime and (c) at night. (d) Speed of lake breeze
(6:00 breeze
to 15:00 h) and
(6:00 land
to 15:00 h)breeze (18:00
and land to (18:00
breeze 03:00 to
h) 03:00
at Urmia station.station.
h) at Urmia

Scatterplots and boxplots

Scatterplots showing
and boxplots the seasonal
showing patternpattern
the seasonal in maximum temperature
in maximum (Tmax ), minimum
temperature (Tmax),
minimum(Ttemperature
temperature min ), and the(T min), and the
difference difference
between betweenand
maximum maximum
minimum andtemperature
minimum temperature
(Tmax –Tmin ) at
Urmia (Tmax
and–Tmin) at Urmia
Saqez andare
stations Saqez stations in
presented areFigure
presented in Figure
5, where 5, where
average average
values values
of the of the
climate climate are
variables
shown variables are shown
with black dots in with black dots
the boxplots. Thein results
the boxplots.
showedThethatresults showed that
the maximum the maximum
temperature at Urmia
temperature at Urmia station was lower than that at Saqez station during summer,
station was lower than that at Saqez station during summer, spring, and autumn, but was similar spring, and in
autumn, but was similar in winter (Figure 5a). The corresponding boxplot for the two stations showed
winter (Figure 5a). The corresponding boxplot for the two stations showed that the mean and median
that the mean and median values and range of variation in maximum temperature were all lower at
values and range of variation in maximum temperature were all lower at Urmia station than at Saqez
Urmia station than at Saqez station in summer, but that the difference decreased in spring and
station in summer,
autumn but that disappeared
and practically the difference decreased
in winter in spring
(Figure 5b). and autumn and practically disappeared
in winter (Figure 5b).
For the minimum temperature at Urmia station, most points in all seasons were located above
the line 1:1—i.e., the minimum temperature was higher at Urmia than at Saqez station (Figure 5c).
The mean, median, and range of variation in minimum temperature at Urmia station were also higher
than at Saqez station, with the difference between the stations being highest in summer and lowest in
winter (Figure 5d).
Water 2020, 12, 2153 7 of 15
Water 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 7 of 17

Tmax (ᵒc) Tmax (ᵒc)

35 Winter
35
Spring
Summer
30 Autumn 30
25 25

20 20
U

15 15

10 10

5 5

0 (b)
0 (a)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Station S U S U S U S U
S Season Spring Summer Autumn Winter

Tmin (ᵒc) Tmin (ᵒc)

20 Winter
20
Spring
Summer
15 Autumn 15

10 10

5 5
U

0 0

-5
-5
-10
-10 (d)
(c)
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Station S U S U S U S U
S Season Spring Summer Autumn Winter

Tmax -Tmin(ᵒc) Tmax - Tmin(ᵒc)

25 25
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn

20 20
U

15
15

10
10

(e) 5 (f)
10 15 20 25 Station S U S U S U S U
S Season Spring Summer Autumn Winter

Figure 5. Seasonal
Figure patterns
5. Seasonal patternsin in
maximum
maximumand andminimum
minimumtemperature.
temperature. Scatterplots of(a)
Scatterplots of (a)maximum
maximum
temperature
temperature (Tmax ), ),(c)(c)minimum
(Tmax minimumtemperature
temperature(T min), and (e) difference
(Tmin between maximum
difference between maximumand and
minimum
minimum temperature
temperature (Tmax
(Tmax –T–T )
min
min ) in
in the
the different
different seasons
seasons at Urmia
Urmia station
station (U)
(U)and
andSaqez
Saqez station (S).
station (S).
(b, The
(b,d,f) d, f) corresponding
The corresponding boxplots.
boxplots.

TheForpoints for the temperature

the minimum temperature fluctuation range (difference
at Urmia station, most pointsbetween maximum
in all seasons and minimum
were located above
temperature) at Urmia station compared with Saqez station in all seasons were almost all below5c).
the line 1:1—i.e., the minimum temperature was higher at Urmia than at Saqez station (Figure the
lineThe mean, the
1:1—i.e., median, and rangefluctuations
temperature of variation in minimum
were temperature
smaller during allatseasons
Urmia station were
at Urmia alsoathigher
than Saqez
Water 2020, 12, 2153 8 of 15

station (Figure 5e). The mean, median, and range of variation in temperature fluctuations were also
smaller at Urmia than at Saqez station (Figure 5f). The difference between the stations in mean, median,
and range of variation in temperature fluctuations was highest in summer and lowest in winter.
The analysis of maximum and minimum temperatures thus showed that Lake Urmia played a
significant role in temperature regulation in the local region, resulting in particular in cooler summers
and warmer winters in the plains area surrounding the lake. The results also showed that the effects of
the lake in temperature regulation in the region were more pronounced in summer. The lake lowered
the air temperature and reduced the temperature fluctuations in the local region around the lake in
summer, while the temperature fluctuations were high in areas not affected by the lake (Saqez).
The seasonal pattern in vapor pressure at 03:00 h (VP3) and 15:00 h (VP15) at Urmia and Saqez
stations is shown in Figure 6. These times were chosen because they are the points when the temperature
reaches its minimum and maximum value in daytime and at night, respectively. The scatterplots of
VP3 (Figure 6a) and VP15 (Figure 6c) at Urmia station, compared with Saqez station, showed that both
were higher at Urmia in summer, spring, and autumn, but similar at both stations in winter. The mean,
median, and range of variation in both VP3 and VP15 were also higher at Urmia station than at Saqez in
summer, spring, and autumn, but similar at both stations in winter (Figure 6b,d). The most significant
differences between mean and median VP3 and VP15 at the two stations were in summer, spring,
autumn, and winter. Analysis of the results showed that higher temperatures in summer increased
Water 2020, 12,
evaporation fromx FOR
thePEER
lakeREVIEW 9 of 17
and increased the vapor pressure in the local region around the lake.

Vapor pressure (mBar)-3:00 Vapor pressure (mBar)- 3:00

Winter
14
12 Spring
Summer
Autumn 12
10
10
8
U

6 6

4 4

(b)
2 (a) 2
2 4 6 8 10 12 Station S U S U S U S U
S Season Spring Summer Autumn Winter

Vapor pressure (mBar)-15:00 Vapor pressure (mBar)- 15:00

15.0 Winter
15.0
Spring
Summer
Autumn
12.5 12.5

10.0
10.0
U

7.5
7.5

5.0
5.0

(c) (d)
5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5 15.0 Station S U S U S U S U
S Season Spring Summer Autumn Winter

Figure 6. Seasonal
Figure patterns
6. Seasonal in vapor
patterns pressure.
in vapor Scatterplots
pressure. of vapor
Scatterplots pressure
of vapor at (a)at03:00
pressure h andh (c)
(a) 03:00 and15.00
(c) h
in the different
15.00 h in theseasons at seasons
different Urmia station (U)station
at Urmia and Saqez station
(U) and Saqez(S). (b,d)(S).
station The(b,
corresponding boxplots.
d) The corresponding
boxplots.

The seasonal pattern in dewpoint temperature at 03:00 h and 15:00 h (DPT3 and DPT15,
respectively) for Urmia and Saqez stations is shown in Figure 7. Since an increase in vapor pressure
causes an increase in the dewpoint temperature, the scatterplots for DPT3 and DPT15 (Figure 7a,c,
respectively) were similar to the scatterplots for VP3 and VP15 (Figure 6a,c, respectively). The
Water 2020, 12, 2153 9 of 15

The seasonal pattern in dewpoint temperature at 03:00 h and 15:00 h (DPT3 and DPT15, respectively)
for Urmia and Saqez stations is shown in Figure 7. Since an increase in vapor pressure causes an
increase in the dewpoint temperature, the scatterplots for DPT3 and DPT15 (Figure 7a,c, respectively)
were similar to the scatterplots for VP3 and VP15 (Figure 6a,c, respectively). The differences between
the stations (deviation from the 1:1 line) were highest in summer and lowest in winter. The mean,
median, and range of variation in DPT3 and DPT15 were higher at Urmia than at Saqez station in
summer,
Water 2020,spring,
12, x FORand autumn,
PEER REVIEWwhereas they were similar at both stations in winter. 10 of 17

Dewpoint temperature (ᵒc)-3:00 Dewpoint temperature(ᵒc)- 3:00

Winter
10
10 Spring
Summer
Autumn

5
5

0
U

-5
-5

-10 (b)
(a)
-10 Station S U S U S U S U
-10 -5 0 5 10
S Season Spring Summer Autumn Winter

Dewpoint temperature (ᵒc)-15:00 Dewpoint temperature(ᵒc)- 15:00

Winter
Spring
Summer 10
10 Autumn

5
5
U

0
0

-5
-5

(c) -10 (d)

-10 Station S U S U S U S U
-10 -5 0 5 10
S Season Spring Summer Autumn Winter

Figure Seasonal
7. Seasonal
Figure 7. pattern
pattern in dewpoint
in dewpoint temperature.
temperature. Scatterplots
Scatterplots of dewpoint
of dewpoint temperature
temperature at
at (a) 03:00
(a) 03:00 h and (c) 15.00 h in the different seasons at Urmia station (U) and Saqez station
h and (c) 15.00 h in the different seasons at Urmia station (U) and Saqez station (S). (b, d) The (S).
(b,d) The corresponding
corresponding boxplots.boxplots.

The seasonal pattern in evaporation at the two stations is shown in Figure 8. The scatterplot of
The seasonal pattern in evaporation at the two stations is shown in Figure 8. The scatterplot of
evaporation indicated that evaporation at both Urmia and Saqez stations was almost zero in winter,
evaporation indicated that evaporation at both Urmia and Saqez stations was almost zero in winter,
due to the low temperatures (Figure 8a). However, evaporation was lower at Urmia than at Saqez
due to the low temperatures (Figure 8a). However, evaporation was lower at Urmia than at Saqez
station in the other seasons. As mentioned, increasing temperature led to an increase in evaporation
station in the other seasons. As mentioned, increasing temperature led to an increase in evaporation
from the lake, which resulted in increasing vapor pressure and decreasing evaporation in the local
from the lake, which resulted in increasing vapor pressure and decreasing evaporation in the local
region around the lake. The most significant differences between the stations (deviations from the
region around the lake. The most significant differences between the stations (deviations from the 1:1
1:1 line) were in spring and summer (Figure 8a). The boxplots for evaporation at the two stations
line) were in spring and summer (Figure 8a). The boxplots for evaporation at the two stations showed
showed that the average, median, and range of variation were lower at Urmia than at Saqez in summer,
that the average, median, and range of variation were lower at Urmia than at Saqez in summer,
spring, and autumn.
spring, and autumn.
The seasonal pattern in relative humidity at 03:00 h and 15:00 h (RH3 and RH15) at the two
stations is shown in Figure S1 in SM. Relative humidity is inversely related to temperature, with
increasing temperature leading to an increase in saturation vapor pressure and a decrease in relative
humidity (see Figure 3). Therefore, RH3 and RH15 were higher in winter than in summer. Another
point is that rising temperature led to increasing vapor pressure in the local region around the lake,
resulting in higher relative humidity in the local area around the lake. As can be seen in Figure S1,
Water 2020, 12, 2153 10 of 15
Water 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 11 of 17

Evaporation (mm) Evaporation (mm)

1200
Winter
Spring
1200
Summer
Autumn
1000 1000

800 800
U

600 600

400 400

200 200

(a) (b)
0 0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Station S U S U S U S U
S Season Spring Summer Autumn Winter

Figure
Figure 8.
8. Seasonal
Seasonalpattern
patternin
in evaporation.
evaporation.(a)(a)Scatterplot
Scatterplotofofevaporation
evaporationininthe
thedifferent
different seasons
seasons at
at
Urmia
Urmiastation
station(U)
(U)and
andSaqez
Saqez station.
station. (b)
(b)The
Thecorresponding
correspondingboxplot.
boxplot.

The seasonal
4.2. Impact pattern
of Lake Level in relative
Reduction humidity
on Local at 03:00
Climate h and 15:00 h (RH3 and RH15) at the two stations
Change
is shown in Figure S1 in SM. Relative humidity is inversely related to temperature, with increasing
To investigate the effects of decreasing lake level on the local climate, the periods with normal
temperature leading to an increase in saturation vapor pressure and a decrease in relative humidity
level (1961–1995) and low water level in the lake (1996–2016) were compared hourly for the two
(see Figure 3). Therefore, RH3 and RH15 were higher in winter than in summer. Another point is
stations. These comparisons were made for summer (when the lake has the most significant impact
that rising temperature led to increasing vapor pressure in the local region around the lake, resulting
on the local climate) and winter (when the lake has the least impact on the local climate).
in higher relative humidity in the local area around the lake. As can be seen in Figure S1, the mean,
The long-term hourly average of the speed of lake/land breezes in summer in the two periods is
median, and range of variation in RH3 and RH15 were higher at Urmia than at Saqez station in all
presented in Figure 9. As can be seen, the hourly speed of both lake and land breezes was lower in
four seasons.
the period with low lake level than in the period with normal lake level. For instance, the speed of
the
4.2.lake breeze
Impact in the
of Lake period
Level withon
Reduction normal lake level
Local Climate (1961–1995) was almost equal between 9:00 and
Change
12:00 h, and the peak occurred at 06:00 h. In the period with low lake level (1996–2016), the peak lake
To investigate the effects of decreasing lake level on the local climate, the periods with normal level
breeze occurred at 12:00 h. The speed of the lake breeze in the low lake level period decreased by
(1961–1995) and low water level in the lake (1996–2016) were compared hourly for the two stations.
about 20%, 14%, and 5% at 6:00 h, 9:00 h, and 15:00 h, respectively, compared with that in the normal
These comparisons were made for summer (when the lake has the most significant impact on the local
period (Figure S2 in Supplementary Materials (SM)). The speed of the land breeze in the period with
climate) and winter (when the lake has the least impact on the local climate).
low lake level decreased by between 5% and 14% during different hours of the day compared with
The long-term hourly average of the speed of lake/land breezes in summer in the two periods
that in the normal lake level period (Figure S2). These changes reflect the effects of the reduction in
is presented in Figure 9. As can be seen, the hourly speed of both lake and land breezes was lower
the area and level of Lake Urmia on lake/land breezes.
in the period with low lake level than in the period with normal lake level. For instance, the speed
of the lake breeze in the period with normal Summer lake level (1961–1995) was almost equal between 9:00
4.0
and 12:00 h, and the peak occurred at 06:00 h. In the period1961 with low lake level (1996–2016), the peak
to 1995
1996 to 2016
lake breeze occurred at 12:00 h. The speed of the lake breeze in the low lake level period decreased by
about 20%, 14%, and 5% at 6:00 h, 9:00 h, and 15:00 h, respectively, compared with that in the normal
Breeze speed ( Knots)

3.5
period (Figure S2 in Supplementary Materials (SM)). The speed of the land breeze in the period with
low lake level decreased by between 5% and 14% during different hours of the day compared with that
in the normal lake level period (Figure S2). These changes reflect the effects of the reduction in the area
3.0
and level of Lake Urmia on lake/land breezes.
Comparisons of long-term hourly average summer temperatures at the two stations in the normal
and low lake level periods revealed that the minimum temperature at Urmia was higher than at Saqez
2.5
station, but the maximum temperature was lower (Figure 10a). Therefore, the hourly temperature
variation was less at Urmia stationLand than at Saqez Lake
station. TheLand hourly mean summer temperature
breeze breeze breeze
change at both Urmia and Saqez stations was −2% and 5% in the period with normal and low lake
2.0
levels, respectively (see Figure S3a 00in SM).
03 06 09 12 15 18 21
Hour

Figure 9. Speed of summer lake and land breezes at Urmia meteorological station in sub-periods with
normal (1961–1995) and low level (1996–2016) in Lake Urmia.
 breeze occurred at 12:00 h. The speed of the lake breeze in the low lake level period decreased by
about 20%, 14%, and 5% at 6:00 h, 9:00 h, and 15:00 h, respectively, compared with that in the normal
period (Figure S2 in Supplementary Materials (SM)). The speed of the land breeze in the period with
low lake level decreased by between 5% and 14% during different hours of the day compared with
that 2020,
Water in the
12, normal
2153 lake level period (Figure S2). These changes reflect the effects of the reduction in
11 of 15
the area and level of Lake Urmia on lake/land breezes.
Summer
4.0
1961 to 1995
1996 to 2016

Breeze speed ( Knots)

3.5

3.0

2.5

Land Lake Land

breeze breeze breeze
2.0
00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21
Hour
Figure 9. Speed of summer lake and land breezes at Urmia meteorological station in sub-periods with
Figure 9. Speed of summer lake and land breezes at Urmia meteorological station in sub-periods with
normal (1961–1995) and low level (1996–2016) in Lake Urmia.
normal (1961–1995) and low level (1996–2016) in Lake Urmia.
The data on long-term hourly average winter temperatures at the two stations in the periods
with normal and low lake level showed that the lake did not have considerable effects at Urmia
station in winter (Figure 10b). In winter, the hourly average temperature at both Saqez and Urmia
stations was higher in the period with low lake level than in the normal lake level period, and the
increase in temperature was greater at Urmia station than at Saqez station (Figure S3b). This increase
in temperature can be attributed to climate change outside the local scale [19,22].
The hourly average vapor pressure in summer at the two stations in the periods of normal and
low lake levels displayed less variation and higher hourly values at Urmia station than at Saqez station
(Figure 10c). These changes can be attributed to the effects of Lake Urmia on vapor pressure in the local
region around the lake. The results confirmed that the vapor pressure at the two stations decreased in
the period of low lake level compared with the period of normal lake level, which can be attributed
to climate variability on a coarser spatial scale. Note that the changes in vapor pressure were less at
Urmia station than at Saqez station, which indicates the role of the lake on vapor pressure.
Dewpoint temperature is a direct function of vapor pressure (Figure 3). Temperature changes
in summer were negligible for the two stations, so the saturation vapor pressure did not change
much, and therefore relative humidity in summer was also a direct function of vapor pressure.
Consequently, similar hourly changes were seen in dewpoint temperature (Figure 10e) and relative
humidity (Figure 10g) in summer.
In winter, the variation in hourly average vapor pressure at the stations in the periods with normal
and low lake levels was similar (Figure 10d), due to the reduction in the lake’s effects on the vapor
pressure at Urmia in winter. The results showed that, at both stations and every hour, the vapor
pressure increased in the period of low lake level compared with normal lake level. This was due
to rising temperatures in winter and increasing evaporation, which led to increasing vapor pressure.
Because dewpoint temperatures are directly related to water vapor pressure, there were similar changes
in dewpoint temperature in winter (Figure 10f). As mentioned earlier, increasing temperature increased
saturated vapor pressure, which reduced the relative humidity. As shown in Figure 10h, the hourly
changes in relative humidity in winter were inversely related to the hourly changes in temperature,
and this decrease in relative humidity per hour was due to climate variability at a coarser scale.
Water 2020, 12, 2153 12 of 15
Water 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 13 of 17

Summer Winter
35 7.5

30 5.0

Temperature (ᵒc)

Temperature (ᵒc)
25 2.5

20 0.0
S (1961 to 1995)
S (1996 to 2016)
15 -2.5
U (1961 to 1995)
U (1996 to 2016)
10 (a) -5.0 (b)
00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21
Hour Hour
Summer Winter
14
5.0
13

Vapor pressure (mBar)

Vapor pressure (mBar)

4.8
12

11 4.6

10
4.4
9
4.2
8

7 (c) 4.0 (d)

00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21
Hour Hour
Summer Winter
12 -3

10
Dewpoint temperature (ᵒc)

Dewpoint temperature (ᵒc)

-4

-5
6

4 -6

2
(e) -7 (f)
00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21
Hour Hour
Summer Winter
70 85

80
60
75
Humidity (percent)
Humidity (percent)

50
70

40 65

60
30
55

20 50
(g) (h)
00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21
Hour Hour

Figure 10. Hourly values of climate parameters at Urmia (U) and Saqez (S) meteorological stations
in periods with normal (1961–1995) and low (1996–2016) lake level: (a) temperature in summer,
(b) temperature in winter, (c) vapor pressure in summer, (d) vapor pressure in winter, (e) dewpoint
temperature in summer, (f) dewpoint temperature in winter, (g) relative humidity in summer,
and (h) relative humidity in winter.
Water 2020, 12, 2153 13 of 15

4.3. Contribution of Lake Urmia to Local Climate Conditions

In this study, we investigated the effect of Lake Urmia on the local climate by comparing
temperature, vapor pressure, dewpoint temperature, evaporation, and relative humidity at
meteorological stations close to and far from the lake (Urmia and Saqez, respectively). The results
showed a smaller temperature fluctuation range, lower mean maximum temperature, and higher
mean minimum temperature at Urmia station compared with Saqez station, which resulted in cooler
summers and warmer winters at Urmia. Although Urmia station (1330 m asl) is at lower elevation than
Saqez station (1520 m asl), the lower mean maximum temperature at Urmia station is due partly to the
lake effect. The heat capacity of water is higher than that of the land, resulting in lower temperature
fluctuations in the lake compared with the land during the day and at night. Therefore, Lake Urmia
adjusts the temperature of surrounding areas.
Vapor pressure, dewpoint temperature, and relative humidity were higher at Urmia than at Saqez
station, but the evaporation rate was lower at Urmia and the fluctuations in these variables were
smaller than at Saqez station. These results show that water vapor at Urmia station is higher than at
Saqez station, the main reason being evaporation from the surface of Lake Urmia.
We quantified the effect of Lake Urmia on the formation of local breezes by analyzing the speed
and direction of wind at Urmia station. The results indicated that local lake and land breezes in
summer, formed due to the existence of Lake Urmia, are the dominant winds in the daytime and at
night, respectively. The reversal of local breeze direction (from lake breezes to land breezes, and vice
versa) and the change in speed during different hours of the day are due to changes in the temperature
difference between land and lake surface during the day and night. The seasonality analysis can exhibit
different spatial patterns caused by the variability of physical properties [21]. Although more than one
meteorological station is needed for the seasonality variation analysis of breeze properties, they were
not available in this study.

4.4. Effect of Water Level Change in Lake Urmia on Local Climate Conditions
We investigated the effects of decreasing lake level on the local climate by dividing the data
into a period with normal level in the lake (1961–1995) and a period with low water level in the lake
(1996–2016), and comparing climate variables in these periods at Urmia and Saqez stations. The results
showed lower speed of lake and land breezes in the period with low lake water level compared with
the normal water level period, and the timing of the peak in lake breeze also changed. These changes
show the effects of lake water level reduction on lake/land breezes.
Summer temperature at both stations in the low lake level period was close to that in the
normal lake level period. However, winter temperature at both stations in the low lake level period
increased compared with the normal lake level period, and the increase was greater at Urmia station.
During summer, vapor pressure, dewpoint temperature, and relative humidity at Urmia station during
the low water level period were close to the values in the normal water level period. However,
these variables decreased during winter at Urmia station. Overall, the results showed that, in the
current low water period, Lake Urmia still plays an essential role in the local climate in summer, but its
influence is significantly reduced in winter.
In this study, we focused on the quantification of the effects of Lake Urmia on the local climate.
More research is required to quantify and assess the effect of local climate (change) on vegetation cover
extent and pattern, crop type selection, and crop yield.

5. Conclusions
In addition to global (large-scale) climate variability, the local climate in areas near seas and lakes
can be affected by the water body. This study showed that Lake Urmia in northwestern Iran affects the
local climate of the surrounding area. However, Lake Urmia has experienced a dramatic decline in
Water 2020, 12, 2153 14 of 15

water level and area since 1998, with the main turning point being 1995. This study examined whether
this decline in water level has altered the influence of Lake Urmia on the local climate.
Hourly time series of climate variables (temperature, relative humidity, vapor pressure, dewpoint
temperature, and evaporation in all seasons, and local lake/land breezes in summer) at Urmia and
Saqez meteorological stations (30 and 185 km from the lake center, respectively) in the period 1961–2016
were compared. The results showed that the lake generates lake and land breezes in the summer,
and that the reduction in lake level has led to a decrease in the speed of these local breezes. The results
also showed that Lake Urmia increases minimum temperature, vapor pressure, dewpoint temperature,
and relative humidity, and decreases maximum temperature and evaporation, in local regions around
the lake. These effects of the lake on the local climate increase with increasing air temperature, so the
lake has its most significant impact on the local climate in summer and the least in winter. Changes in
climate variables following the dramatic decline in water levels in Lake Urmia in recent years were
assessed by dividing the study period into sub-periods, before and after 1995, and comparing climate
variables between sub-periods and stations. The results indicated that the local climate is still affected
by the lake, but that the level of influence of the lake on the local climate has decreased with declining
lake water level.

Supplementary Materials: The following are available online at http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/8/2153/s1,

Figure S1: Seasonal patterns in relative humidity. Scatter plots of relative humidity at (a) 03:00 h and (c) 15.00 h
in the different seasons at Urmia station (U) and Saqez station (S). (b,d) The corresponding boxplots. Figure S2:
Changes in the hourly speed of local lake and land breezes at Urmia meteorological station in the periods
with normal and low lake level. Figure S3: Changes in hourly climate parameters at Urmia (U) and Saqez (S)
meteorological stations in low water level in Lake Urmia period compare to normal water level. (a) Temperature
in summer, (b) temperature in winter, (c) vapor pressure in summer, (d) vapor pressure in winter, (e) dewpoint
temperature in summer, (f) dewpoint temperature in winter, (g) relative humidity in summer, and (h) relative
humidity in winter. Table S1: Geographical locations of the meteorological stations from which data were obtained
for this study. Table S2: Wind clustering during the day and night at Urmia meteorological station in summer.
Author Contributions: Conceptualization, A.H.D. and M.T.; methodology, A.H.D., D.M.P. and H.M.; software,
A.H.D. and H.M.; validation, A.H.D., D.M.P., and M.T.; formal analysis, A.H.D. and D.M.P.; investigation, Z.K. and
M.T.; resources, A.H.D. and M.T.; data curation, H.M.; writing—original draft preparation, A.H.D., D.M.P., and
H.M.; writing—review and editing, Z.K.; visualization, A.H.D. and H.M.; supervision, Z.K.; project administration,
M.T. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding: This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial,
or not-for-profit sectors.
Acknowledgments: We are grateful to the Urmia Lake Restoration Program (ULRP) and to I.R. of Iran
Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) for providing the primary data for this study.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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