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08en ISLM
08en ISLM
Derivation IS & LM
Economic Analysis
•Fiscal Policy: Government Expenditures
•Monetary Policy
•Fiscal Policy: Tax Cut
Exam Question
1 Grösche: Economics I
IS/LM-Model
Goods Market
IS Curve
𝑌 = 𝑌 𝑠 = 𝑌𝑑
IS/LM-Model
Money Market
LM Curve
𝑀/𝑃 = 𝐿(𝑖, 𝑌)
2 Grösche: Economics I
𝑌𝑠, 𝑌𝑑 𝑌𝑠
Derivation of the IS-Curve
A 𝑌𝑑
𝑌𝑑
„Point of departure“ A: A‘
combination 𝑖1 and 𝑌1
IS-Kurve:
derived from two equilibria
on the goods market
A‘
A
IS
3 Grösche: Economics I
Moving along vs. shifting the IS-Curve
IS IS
4 Grösche: Economics I
Derivation of the LM curve
derived from money market equilibria
Income 𝑌
5 Grösche: Economics I
Shifting the LM Curve
increasing the money supply 𝑀 ↑ ⇒ shifting the LM curve
Income 𝑌
6 Grösche: Economics I
The IS/LM Model
7 Grösche: Economics I
Economic Policy
(1) The government rises its expenditures. Analyse how this expansive fiscal policy affects
the interest rate level and national income.
(2) The central bank increases the money supply. How does this expansive monetary
policy affect the interest rate level and national income?
(3) The government decides to cut income taxes. What are the effects of this expansive
fiscal policy with respect to the interest rate level and national income?
8 Grösche: Economics I
Stabilization Policy and the IS/LM-Model
Derivation IS & LM
Economic Analysis
•Fiscal Policy: Government Expenditures
•Monetary Policy
•Fiscal Policy: Tax Cut
Exam Question
9 Grösche: Economics I
Incoming new orders (index)
during the financial crises
10 Grösche: Economics I
Economic growth during the financial crises
(change of real GDP in % wrt previous year quarter)
11 Grösche: Economics I
In der weltweiten Wirtschafts- und Finanzkrise, die nach der US-Immobilienkrise 2007 einsetzte, war
die Stabilisierung des Wachstums und der Nachfrage in Deutschland bedeutend. Die Bundesregierung
musste mit einem breiten Spektrum an Konjunkturmaßnahmen entgegensteuern:
Entlastung der privaten Haushalte (z.B. Senkung der Einkommensteuer, einmaliger Kinderbonus)
Quelle: BMVI
http://www.bmvi.de/DE/VerkehrUndMobilitaet/Verkehrspolitik/Verkehrsinfrastruktur/Investitionsprogramme/KonjunkturpaketII/konjunkturpaket-ii_node.html
12 Grösche: Economics I
Government Expenditures (bn EUR)
450
400
350
300
Mrd. Euro
250
200
additional expenses 2009/2010
150 ~ 100 bn €
100
50
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
14 Grösche: Economics I
15 Grösche: Economics I
16 Grösche: Economics I
Corona Schutzschild Konjunkturprogramm in november 2020
Frühjahr 2020 Sommer 2020 shutdown & financial support
(Stand 26.03.2020) (Stand 03.06.2020) for restaurants and bars
Grösche: Economics I 17
Grösche: Economics I 18
𝑌𝑆 , 𝑌𝐷 𝑌𝑠 𝑌𝑑
B
Expansive Fiscal Policy
𝑌𝑑
A
𝑀
𝑃
B
B
A
A
𝐿(𝑖, 𝑌2 )
𝐿(𝑖, 𝑌1 )
𝑀
𝑃
19 Grösche: Economics I
Expansive Fiscal Policy
goods market
(𝐺 ↑⇒ 𝑌 𝑑 ↑⇒ 𝑌 𝑠 ↑⇒ 𝑌 ↑⇒ 𝑌 𝑣 ↑⇒ 𝐶 ↑)
government rises expenditures 𝐺 ↑ increase aggregate demand 𝑌 𝑑
rising production and value added national income 𝑌 ↑
national income 𝑌 ↑ disposable income 𝑌 𝑣 ↑ consumption 𝐶 ↑
starting multiplier rounds
money market
(𝐿 ↑⇒ excess demand money ⇔ excess supply bonds ⇒ 𝑃𝐵 ↓⇒ 𝑖 ↑)
rising money demand
(consumer need cash in order to pay transactions)
government needs money / finance requirements for additional spendings
usually financed by loans / bonds rising supply of bonds
prices of bonds decrease
(as long as the central bank does not increase money supply)
interest rates increase
20 Grösche: Economics I
BMF Monatsbericht November 2020
21 Grösche: Economics I
Rising interest rates and government expenditures (theoretical view)
𝐷 = 0 if 𝐺 = 𝑇
22 Grösche: Economics I
Rising interest rates and government expenditures (theoretical view)
would lower disposable income and to place bonds government must pay /
therefore consumption promise higher interest rates
23 Grösche: Economics I
𝑌𝑠
𝑌𝑠, 𝑌𝑑
Crowding-Out B 𝑌𝑑
Crowding-Out (green arrow)
with rising interest rates
A
𝑌𝑑
lower investment demand
from A A‘
fix interest rate 𝑖
distance A A‘ is
(additional demand due to government)
from A‘ B
because of 𝑖 ↑
investment 𝐼 ↓
aggregate demand 𝑌 𝑑 ↓ (somewhat)
B
A
A‘
24 Grösche: Economics I
Stabilization Policy and the IS/LM-Model
Derivation IS & LM
Economic Analysis
•Fiscal Policy: Government Expenditures
•Monetary Policy
•Fiscal Policy: Tax Cut
Exam Question
25 Grösche: Economics I
26 Grösche: Economics I
Quelle: FAZ, 23.01.2015
27 Grösche: Economics I
Quelle: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2020/html/ecb.mp200604~a307d3429c.de.html
28 Grösche: Economics I
Pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)
Historical Figures
140 700
120 600
100 500
80 400
60 300
40 200
20 100
0 0
2020m3 2020m4 2020m5 2020m6 2020m7 2020m8 2020m9 2020m10
Source: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement/pepp/html/index.en.html
29 Grösche: Economics I
„on top of PEPP“
30 Grösche: Economics I
𝑌𝑠, 𝑌𝑑 𝑌𝑠
𝑌𝑑
B
expansive monetary policy 𝑌𝑑
A
A A
B
B
31 Grösche: Economics I
Expansive Monetary Policy
money market
(𝑀 ↑⇒ excess supply money ⇔ excess demand bonds ⇒ 𝑃𝐵 ↑⇒ 𝑖 ↓)
central aims at increasing the currency in circulation: 𝑀 ↑
massive purchase of bonds and payment with (generated) money
increasing demand for bonds let the prices of bonds 𝑃𝐵 ↑ rise
with 𝑃𝐵 ↑ the rate of return for bonds scales down: 𝑖 ↓
since 𝑀 ↑ , commercial banks may provide loans at lower interest rates
goods market
(𝑖 ↓⇒ 𝐼 ↑⇒ 𝑌 𝑑 ↑⇒ 𝑌 𝑠 ↑⇒ 𝑌 ↑)
since interest rates 𝑖 ↓ cheaper loans investment demand increases: 𝐼 ↑
aggregate demand 𝑌 𝑑 ↑ increase of production and value added national income 𝑌 ↑
(and again: 𝑌 ↑⇒ 𝑌 𝑣 ↑⇒ 𝐶 ↑ starting multiplier rounds)
32 Grösche: Economics I
Stabilization Policy and the IS/LM-Model
Derivation IS & LM
Economic Analysis
•Fiscal Policy: Government Expenditures
•Monetary Policy
•Fiscal Policy: Tax Cut
Exam Question
33 Grösche: Economics I
source: https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/solidaritaetszuschlag-1662388
34 Grösche: Economics I
Tax Cut
goods market
cutting the tax rate 𝑡 rise of after-tax (disposable) income 𝑌 𝑣 = 𝑌 − 𝑇 ↓
national income likely to increase, since:
𝑡 ↓⇒ 𝑌 𝑣 ↑⇒ 𝐶 ↑⇒ 𝑌 𝑑 ↑⇒ 𝑌 𝑠 ↑⇒ 𝑌 ↑
money market
higher demand for money
(𝐿 ↑⇒ excess demand money ⇔ excess supply bonds ⇒ 𝑃𝐵 ↓⇒ 𝑖 ↑)
government needs to finance budget,
possibly increase of public debt with bonds emission
consumers need money for transactions
35 Grösche: Economics I
Stabilization Policy and the IS/LM-Model
Derivation IS & LM
Economic Analysis
•Fiscal Policy: Government Expenditures
•Monetary Policy
•Fiscal Policy: Tax Cut
Exam Question
36 Grösche: Economics I
Consider the following IS/LM model
37 Grösche: Economics I
(1) Calculate the national income 𝑌 and the interest rate level 𝑖 in the macroeconomic equilibrium.
Determine the amount of investment demand.
(2) Analyse the effect of an increase of government expenditures on national income and the interest
rate level. Give a graphical explanation within the IS/LM model and provide the underlying
adjustment process.
(3) The government increases its spending to the new level of 𝐺 = 495.
Calculate the interest rate, the national income, and the investment demand in the new
macroeconomic equilibrium.
38 Grösche: Economics I
Three steps to felicity
1. determine IS curve
2. determine LM curve
3. let IS=LM
𝑖∗
𝑌∗
39 Grösche: Economics I
determining IS curve
1
2 determining LM curve
40 Grösche: Economics I
3 equilibrium (IS=LM)
8%
investment
1840
41 Grösche: Economics I
3
G
8%
(money market)
𝑌 ↑⇒ 𝐿 ↑⇒ Ü𝑁 𝐺𝑒𝑙𝑑 ⇔ Ü𝐴 𝑊𝑃 ⇒ 𝑃𝐵 ↓⇒ 𝑖 ↑
(goods market)
𝑖 ↑⇒ 𝐼 ↓⇒ 𝑌 𝑑 ↓ (somewhat)
(Crowding-Out)
42 Grösche: Economics I
G recalculation IS curve
4
new equilibrium
G
13%
8%
1840 1890
43 Grösche: Economics I