PLS 322 - American Political Process Campaigning Vote count of 2008 POTUS Election = Change in policy and change

in programs Obama receives election through campaign and can make change in policy and program Changes including healthcare, stimulus package Medias involvement with campaigns TV Debates Advertisement budget (2/3 of campaign $ goes to: TV, Newspaper, Bumper sticker) Medias involvement with government Press conferences - expectations of the public after getting into office How to govern the media Good campaigns segment their campaigns quest for votes into manageable bites You must have votes to get into office - how many do I need to get elected? These bites are broken into geographic regions that allow segmentation of voters Besides regional geography, what other segmenting of Presidential Election campaigns did Sabato speak about? Age Gender Ethnicity Income Party Affiliation Campaign Religion Marriage Issues - Iraq, Economy, etc Take Two of the above and talk about what Obama and McCain did Who won that category? I am the campaign manager for ____ - what do you think should be done in 2012 election for McCain Age: Obama defeated McCain in younger voters (college age). Obamas youth and energetic message was well received by college students and McCain may have held a disconnect through his age and speech. If I was the campaign manager for the 2012 Republican Candidate, I would hope my candidate was younger and would reach out to more college students on their campuses. Education ~ Post-graduate degree holders: Obama and the democratic party controlled this portion of the vote. This may due to liberal policies supporting funds for

research and environmental protection. Republican campaign should emphasize commitment to a energy efficiency and make amends on research ideas in order to regain the intellectual community The United States Election - Politically, for Presidential Candidates: Every four years = 52 elections observed 51 = State Electoral Contests 1 = Popular Vote Contest Winner take all, Plurality/First Past the Post Statistically, you can win the popular vote and still lose within the electoral college Media Ads and speeches to get elected Promises made on campaign trail that become the policy agenda Incomplete policies become the sounds bite of the opponent in the next campaign How do past campaigns influence current campaigns and policy? Down Ballot - Each political race below the Presidential race on the ballot Incumbents playing defense from challengers In 2008 - Republicans defended themselves from Democrats Financial crisis, Bush approval rating, War, Other elected officials, Budget deficit, OBAMA) 2) In 2010 - Democrats will be playing defense 1) Making Surveys Survey Monkey Macro and Micro in the World of Politics Macro- national implications Micro- regional implications Issues that impact: Major year issues (2008 election dealt with economic meltdown) Micro Issues: Election in a certain district or single state governors race

Political Polling: Horserace - daily tracking of an issue that shows day by day change in opinion.

Critics say that horserace tracking causes people to lose sight of the issues and instead focus upon who is ahead on a given day Candidate Preference - Not just who someone likes, but why they like him Campaigns poll to find out what areas of a candidate the people like, then they emphasize those certain areas Issue Salience - the big issues that people care about, the issues that often decide the election Online Polling: Open Access Poll - online polls where you can vote yourself POTUS Timeline Dynamics of the 2008 campaign used as a reference point Nature of candidates and how they affect us (18-29) years olds Primary Election Season- Intra party, within party battle to see who will be that partys nominee General Election- Inter party, parties run against each other for the general vote for office Recognize: Locality driven- precincts, city blocks, county, and state (RNC/DNC 2nd) Needing two things: Votes Resources to obtain votes

Themes Revealed: Campaigning v. Governing You must get into office to do anything - how much will you compromise your beliefs to get into office? Official v. Unofficial

 The official schedule is predictable and minimal (sort of). The unofficial forces whirling about the official schedule is quite insane Official is small and gotten bigger Unofficial has grown exponentially Open v. Closed US political processes 1787 - Close, Restrictive, Why? 2010 - Open ----Local Elections v. National Campaigns Legal Authority v. Tradition and Culture Votes v. Resources for those votes Two simple items, but with many variables The 2008 Presidential election process - the same, and yet very different IMPORTANT DATES FOR THE 2008 POTUS TIMELINE Caucuses (Iowa) Primary Dates Convention (August) General Election (November Pre 1850s: Closed process, smoked filled rooms, party leaders select candidate Middle 1800s (1860): Closed Process ends as Republican party rises 1912: Constitution allows Senators to be elected 1900s (1928): Open Process emerges, parties hold conventions, state delegations select candidates 1960s: Primaries emerge, Iowa and NH are the first presidential primaries and determine forecast of presidency Kennedy election: Had to win WV because lack of catholic vote, he won, and many candidates after that started to take the primary route in their campaigns instead of trying to win delegates Clustered Primaries: Campaigns that are tired of Iowa and NH primaries deciding the presidential race. Cluster primary was created by southern states in order to gain power back in presidential raise. Super Tuesday is the day in which these clustered primaries take place. 1968: Hubert Humphrey and Eugene McCarthy and RFK and RN + Chicago + The 60s = McGovern Fraser 60s Issues: Vietnam, Segregation, etc.

Leads to more primaries and this question Who understands a political party - party leaders or the rank and file? McGovern-Fraser: Changed rule for conventions to let a proportional amount of people come from each state when they voted as delegates (60/40 vote from Iowa = 60/40 delegate rep April 4th - MLK Killed - June 6th - RFK wins primary - RFK Killed - Chicago - Humphrey selected to run against Nixon When rank and file members along with party leaders line up in their nomination, presidential nominees have powerful campaigns (84 Reagan, 08 Obama) Official: Iowa Caucus, NH Primary, Super Tuesday Primaries, Other Primaries, Conventions, General Election Early Voting, Election Day (First T after M in November) Unofficial: Before Caucus take visits to IA and NH; Benchmark Polling; Build Organization and Staff, Large amounts of Fundraising, IA NH ST Others, Interrengum I (after primaries but before conventions where most candidates pick vice president), Conventions, Interrengum II (Swift boat; Bush attacks Kerry before campaigning starts and he could never catch up), Labor Day General Election Begins, Debates (2-3 POTUS, 1 VPOTUS), General Election Early Voting, Election Day, start all over again Perpetual Campaign - Unofficial is years of work beforehand, do we want campaigns to go on like this forever? Tradition unofficial and official, IA and NH dictate how people perceive candidates in future primaries Message and Candidate dominates, historically was Party-Centered until end of Convention Era then Candidate Centered Incumbent Party and current office holder is up for election - even if not running - open seat 2008 POTUS Election (incumbent expected in 2012 Votes and resources - strategic choices - Cold Hearted Politics: to hell with that state Centrism and Groups. States that dont matter dont get attention POTUS - 51 Elections and the electoral college math Bell curves represent all voters in the election that is being viewed In primaries, democrats are fighting for voters left of bell curve, republicans on the right General Elections require capturing middle of bell curve

The Changing Campaign Was personalized, candidate detached from campaign with surrogates doing work Then political party declines, candidate centered, party a factor, but candidate appeal and visibility is crucial In recent decades campaigns have become less party-centered and more candidate centered Rock star 2008 General: Math (Obama was carrying Kerry states) $ (Obama Private Machine) Electorate (Non-white vote was advantage to Obama and democrats) Financial Crisis changed everything for McCain (was winning at Labor Day but statements about economics swung election to Obama) The professional campaigners: 1. Line up a campaign manager 2. Get a fund-raiser 3. Get a campaign counsel - lawyers that interpret rules for campaign 4. Hire media and campaign consultants 5. Assemble a campaign staff 6. Plan the logistics 7. Get a research staff and policy advisors 8. Hire a pollster 9. Get a good press secretary All politics is local regardless of race Vs. Everyone is taking temperature of current president, if he is good then party wins, if he is bad then the entire party suffers Coattail effect- people liking the top of the ballot and then voting for that party entirely Incumbents: Have 8 to 10 advantage in elections because of experience and name recognition Money comes back to district What do challengers see in district? Macro: Party in power is struggling, financial crisis District oddities: Economic effects on district jobs and manufacturing TEST: Bold vocabulary Define term and provide strengths and weaknesses in analysis Essays on themes in course: Campaigning, Party Center vs. Candidate Centered, Slides comparing X v. X

Applied work section asking for a list of something or explain the things you listed Short Answer: Defining the term or explaining the term and then giving an example. Explain how it is viewed differently in areas of American politics Applied Work: Lists (campaign calendar, official and unofficial calendar) where you complete list of items in the sections Essay SURVEY: Wednesday October 6th - PRESENTATION Four Groups x 13 Minutes All four presentations uploaded by 9:30 AM Five questions MAX per group Money is the mothers milk of politics - Jesse Unruh History of money in elections and politics Campaigning Governing - expectation is that once your in power you should care about governing instead of fundraising. Not true, todays times require candidates to keep an eye on the campaign clock while they are in office. Important legislation Campaign commission act McCain - Feingold $3 Trillion spent in FY08 Every dollar connects to a private interest (citizen, organization or corporation, and lobbyist) Every dollar raised connects to private interest Hired lobbyists are paid in order to further causes for the org. $1 Billion dollars was raised and spent in 08 POTUS campaigns

Benefits/Disadvantages of $ Spent on Campaign Benefit Stimulus effect Participation Disadvantage Too focused on battle ground states $ = Influence then there are competing interests within campaigns Problems with buying the POTUS as a product

Candidates without strong financial networks or personal fortunes cannot run for office: the Senate is filled with millionaires Candidates get the vast portion of their money from wealthy individuals and corporations: only 4% of the population contributes anything, and 1/4 of 1% contribute 80% of all contributions to federal candidates Hard Money - Dollars going into candidacy of anyone running for public office; very clear and firm limits on the amount of money that an individual or organization can give for the official campaign Soft Money - Money that goes into private helping organization or candidate support. Friends of Bill Haslem; Rules are relaxed, so some money is given to limit in hard money and fill the rest into soft money friend groups Off Line - Interest groups, Political Action Committees, ask for money to go to their organization and they target where they believe to have the most good. They will attack opponents against their policy wishes and support candidates that align with them using the money donated to them by private citizens Is restraints on $ killing democracy?

FEC Rules & Regulations The Players: Government FEC - Federal Election Commission FECA - Federal Election Campaign Act - Early 70s to begin process of regulating money flow and activities of campaigns. Led to creation of FEC. BCRA - (McCain-Feingold) Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act: regulating money flow in campaigns Hard Money = Federal Money Political donations raised from federally permissible sources within the limits established by BCRA

 Regulated donation that goes directly to the funding of a candidates campaign Soft Money = Nonfederal money Political donations made in such a way as to avoid federal regulations Not illegal; soft money has set up organizations so that parallel entities are funded and help campaign money flow FECA and BCRA have not created legislation clearly regulating soft money such as friends of the candidate organizing their own group and spending money on supporting that candidate Soft money is not regulated by the FEC and is intended for party building activities like voter registration or generic party platform advertising Typically, soft money has been used for a variety of other things - like campaign office expenses and equipment. Spending soft money frees up the hard money to directly support the candidate. What does it regulate? The financing of federal elections More specifically: Disclosure of financial activity Contributions (Receiving and Giving) Expenditures Candidate support activities Federal election activities Campaign Finance Rules Large single donors fat cats - 1/2 of President Grants campaign was funded by one donor 1867 - Naval Approps Bill - cant solicit from Navy Yard workers (bribery in 1867) Print spending - $150,000 in 1900 Teddy Roosevelt: shameful and shamed that so much $ was in political campaigns Tillman Act 1907: no corp. $$ but there were loopholes and wasnt enforced Corrupt Practices Acts of 1911 and 1925 Set disclosures requirements for House and Senate elections Spending limits ($25K for Senate; $5K for House) Ridiculously weak and regularly violated Radio then TV - Bigger $ needed Nixon - Bebe Rebozo and CREEP - unregulated $$, 1972 FECA - 1971 - Federal Election Campaign Act in response to Watergate Scandal Prohibits corporations and incorporated charitable organizations from giving to or spending for a candidate Creates FEC - Federal Election Commission

1976: Buckley v. Valeo (1976) Are campaign contributions speech, and therefore protected by the 1st Amendment of the US Constitution Campaign Committees Candidates 1. Candidate specific activities 2. Contributions to other candidates, parties or causes National Party Committees Federal candidates Allocated nationally State and Local Party Committees Separate Segregated Funds PACs connected to corporations, unions, etc. Non-connected Committees All other PACSs

527s Moves away from hard money and soft money organizations. Ideological issues drive the next election and they spend money donated on candidates that the group feels needs to go or needs to gain office. Moveon.org - Club for Growth - America Coming Together Individuals

Test Two Notes Themes of voting: Powerpoint slide Voting Behavior: Ideally = 100% Minimal age, citizenship, residency, registration Literacy test removed Structural issues - environmental and social barriers to get out and vote Sociological - Demographic Factors Psychological factors: Obama isnt running, why should I show up? Political Party: group of voters, activists, candidates, and office holders who identify with a party label and seek to elect individuals to public office Deal with power politics - get their people in office Office holders push agenda and run the show 1800 Federalist/Antifederalist were first parties (not in constitution, informal American experience) Republican party is first party to solidify region (Solid South) Two Roles: The Party in Government and The Party-In-The-Electorate

1860, 1896, 1932, (1968?) - Realigning Elections? Transformation of big ideas from one party to another Grassroots movement for Tea Party leads to them eventually winning elections Demographics viewed in micro levels to determine geographically where more or less risk lies in regard to tea party influence MEDIA Overview - Objectives Strategy as a message design: applies both to news and media coverage and paid advertising Strategy as resource allocation - geography of campaigning, how much advertising time, where the spots appear, etc. Strategy as anticipating and countering opponents moves Overall objective - victory, either by moving turnout or preference Campaigns make ads and sell them to networks to run on air just as household product companies make ads to sell their product Campaigns become products that these advertisements seek to sell Major Roles of Campaign Media Signaler - Sets the agenda, TV network decides what is news?. 1000s of stories running daily for only 22 minutes of news. What is most important stuff? Media sets the agenda by saying this issue is more important than other issues Cons: It may not be important or relevant but just interesting. Too much of an issue? Common- Carrier Role - Media is the ultimate stump or the bully pulpit (Theodore Roosevelt). With the media now, audio that is televised gives the politician a capacity to speak to the masses. If President asks for half hour from networks, they give it to him. Cons: Partisan favoritism if your party is represented Watchdog Role - Media is good source of keeping politicians honest - famous reporters that uncovered the Watergate scandal, Monica Lewinsky, Sarah Palin and firing of State Trooper. Gate issue similar to Watergate - a bad thing that signifies scandal is rising and will be uncovered by media.

Cons: Attacking private lives and moral fiber instead of issues and ability to govern Public Representative - Known as the 4th estate, the media has a great power to shape issues. Some say their influence makes them the Fourth branch of the government because they can set agenda, transmits the news, and watches for bad parts of the politicians. Cons: Tested on things not pertinent to governing, not elected, pervasive agenda to ignorant viewers that blindly follow. Concerns - All have these roles may have been overused and warped because they are overdone.

Media Outlets Traditional: Newspapers, radios, 30 minute blocks of news New: Email, blogs, discussion boards, websites Newest: Social networking (facebook, twitter), YouTube, other video uploading sites TV is still the winner, but internet is quickly rising Yellow Journalism - print media keeping up with scandals and pervasive news even in the 19th century. Attack Ad: Takes a shot and view at the failings of the opponent Cons: Negative ads depress voter turnout, better remembered than positive ads, factually misleading, or your appearance is worsened by creating a negative ad Advocacy Ad: Take a look at the candidates qualifications and promoting them Contrast Ad: comparing positive claims of themselves while criticizing positions, records, or qualities of the opponents Full List of Campaign Ads Negative - one candidate portrays the other in an unfavorable light Warm and Fuzzy - Candidates make the viewer feel good about the country or his/her campaign

Biography and Vision - emphasize the candidates life or vision for America Humorous - candidates elicit laugh or smile from the viewer Scary - candidates evoke images of fear (usually combined with negative ad) Advocacy - advocates for/against a certain positions on an issue/person Trust - seek to convince voters that the candidate is someone they can trust to lead them during challenging times Contrast: Advocacy + gentle attack TEST ON Friday October 29TH KEY TO ADVERTISING IS TO CONTROL THE NARRATIVE So much is now is dependent on day to day life use of the internet, how can political campaigns gain an advantage through this idea? Politics of Cyberspace Politics in contemporary cyberspace constitutes three distinct types:

Politics within the Net: concerning the internal operation of the Net and involving those online 2. Politics which impacts the Net: dealing with the policies and regulation of governments affecting cyberspace 3. Political uses of the Net: concerning how cyberspace is used to affect political life off line. Virtual reality has come to resemble the real world; ordinary everyday politics has captured cyberspace. 1. How effective is using the Net in politics? With internet, you pick a side and find the links that most connect to your world and your viewpoint. Youll then find sites that support ideologies and parties that you line up with. Horeserace: Tells you who is winning back and forth Lack of understanding of the issues because the horserace keeps people focused on who is winning

Internet can help because you can read platforms and issues, it may save us from the horserace problem We may become a fully informed electorate because of such

Governing Begins - November 5, 2010 From Inspiration to Legislation - Melissa Hart Constitution built around legislative branch, not executive Bicameral legislature, 100 Senators, 435 Reps apportioned zero-sum among states according to size Texas and California gaining House seats at the expense of Northeast states where people have migrated South Shifts in population concentrations also change electoral votes for affected states Eldridge Gerry - Gerrymandering; crafted election districts to favor his election Type of Legislator: D.C. Legislator or caretaker of the Constituency How does Governing Occur in the APP? Structures (Constitutional, Tradition) Procedures (Schedule, Legislative Agendas) Behaviors (House Culture v. Senate Club) Members in a Post-Modern Candidate-Centered World Who are the people who govern and who help them? House Membership Congressional Staff and Infrastructure From Citizen to Political Activist to Representative Campaigning or Governing?

Fennos Constituencies: The geographic constituency- The bounded world of what has been given to you through an election district. The reelection constituency- The people who put you back in office. Presidential election years always bring larger reelection constituencies. Macro political issues also affect the size. Good candidates know who is coming out to vote, and their predictions dictate how they microtarget and adjust during campaigning The primary constituency- The constituency that gets you into political office. Much smaller constituency that consists of party members voting during primary elections when you run against someone else in the same party. The personal constituency- Large personal constituencies usually lead to easy primary wins, fundraising support, and reelections. This is because local personal support and personal connections through work and life experience make it easier to gain campaign support. Personal constituency is a double edged sword because name recognition and close relations with local populations leads to either large popularity or widespread confusion and misinformation about candidate Knowing the smallest two helps create a career to represent all four Harts Staffing Positions Chief of Staff Legislative Director Legal Assistant (3) to the Legislative Director Staff Researcher (legislative assistant) Scheduler System Administrator Local pollster Local/District Office Staff (compared to D.C. Office) Press Secretary (communications director) Constituent Services Congressional Office Structuring Centralized Structure: Everything goes through Chief of Staff before it gets to the Congressman Duel - DC-District/PA Parity: Chief of Staff and District office share importance in passing information to Congressman

Functional: Open, member of Congress is in the middle and many people have the ability to speak with the Congressman at the same time. Opposite of hierarchical system, people on staff are equivalent in time with Congressman Member-As-Manager- Member of Congress takes on each role himself and tries to do it all. Usually fails and turns to hiring others.

Melissa Harts Small Bill Issue: Safe Havens HR2018 What is it? How did the issue come to her? Why would this issue be an issue that would sow she is a good representative Idea, Agenda Setting and Research Formulate: Lone Ranger then Coalition Building, Deal with multiple constituencies (PA and non PA) to attempt to legitimate it Personal, Professional, Political motivations

POTUS Constitutional Powers and Authority Informal practice of president Traditions have changed - informal traditions have led to highlighting of presidential action Change in society - more rapid society, therefore, we expect quick action from POTUS Change in world Structural ossification Formal explanation of responsibilities in Article II POTUS Responsibilities Crisis Management Issue Recognition Agenda Creation Staffing Resource Allocation Conflict Management Consensus Building The American President Historical roles in the American Political Process The Presidential tension between power and insignificance Organization

 The Three Presidencies The Person - what makes them tick, motivates, drives them? Significant to American expience The Administration - how the country is ran, how president handles stress The Constitutional Office - Oval Office, protection, power central, authority

Presidential requirements: 35 Years Old United States Citizen 14 Years residence in United States Essay Issues: The Presidential Difference Public Communicator Organizational Capacity Political Capacity Political Skill Vision Cognitive Style Emotional Intelligence Why I like the president because I see this...Greenstein agrees/disagrees Constitutional Conundrums Kennedys murder, 14 months before end of term 1st question: LBJs 9th and 10th year? 2nd question: What if JFK had lived, but was on life support? 2 Full elected terms plus 2 years starting the day after the midterm if VP assuming POTUS Why do we care? The perception of the presidency growing over the years, 25th amendment The Edith Bolling Galt Wilson Problem Woodrow Wilson had severe stroke, was removed from the public, was close to incapacitation Wilsons wife is said to have ran the presidency during the last 17 months

So What? 150 years ago Congress ran the government, but not anymore. Now the president assumes power in running the government The Evolving Presidency The people holding the job evolved it More complex times impacts multiple administrations The presidency of today strains under the strictures of the Founding Fathers Constitutional POTUS is much less than Real Life POTUS How did POTUS power, relative to US Congressional powers, change? Decline in approval for each modern US President Fail to live up to campaign promises; governing realities set in Issues and events within each administration Trends exist: is it the person in office? The administration? The office of the president changing? Is it the micro issues inside the administration or macro events happening around the world? Presidential Difference Public Communicator Bully Pulpit: We now listen to the president more than Congress, and because of technology we are able to hear the president more often. Caucus Head: We see this in a candidate centered campaign era. The president is the leader of the party and controls the legislative agenda. The president keeps the caucus of fellow party members intact because that is how you move legislation forward. Ego Massager: How to work with Senate, House, and Staff. Massaging egos allows you to work with more people. The Informer and Visionary: President that is good public communicator has the ability to inform the public on why the idea is good and then how it applies to the overall big picture that the president envisions for the nation. Organizational Capacity WHO: Aids to the president managed by the president

EOP: Created by FDR FDR v. Jimmy Carter: FDR asked high rankings members their opinion on an issue and then asked someone much lower about their opinion on the same issue. This was done in order to gain new perspectives on the issue, but also runs the risk of a disorganized argument leading to no resolution. Jimmy Carter micromanaged everything and led to poor levels of efficiency Political Skill Recognize the exact limits of his informal influence, so when combined with the formal authority, maximizes the situation to his advantage. Vision Have a vision outside of the regular lists and know where you want to take the nation Explain the vision and sell it to the public through communication Embody the vision of the presidency and portray it in action and rhetoric. The image portrayed by the president may have different views among others. FDRs picture part of the media portrayal of the president. Cognitive Style Bandwidth - the ability to process information, the ability to be inquisitive Possibly the most important aspect of a president. He must know he is the smartest in the room or become it quickly. If not, surround self with knowledgable aids, like Reagan and H.W. Bush Emotional Intelligence You want to have a beer with him You want to go hunting with him You want him in the room during a fight You want him to admit hes wrong, at least to himself He is secure and has a healthy ego Willing to hear viewpoints but has a firm world view Has a relatively positive outlook

Now: Afterthought then Imperial then Unitary Presidents People view current presidents as imperialistic and free from constrains of Congress or public opinion. More extreme, W. Bush is viewed as the Unitary president simply taking matters into his own hands.