MAKERERE UNIVERSITY

COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING, DESIGN, ART AND

TECHNOLOGY (CEDAT)

SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING

DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING

CIV 4200: CIVIL ENGINEERING PROJECT II

FEASIBILITY ASSESSMENT OF A BUS RAPID TRANSIT SYSTEM ON SIR

APOLLO KAGGWA ROAD
BY

MOGGA ISAAC 17/X/18248/PSA

LUYINDA EDWIN 17/U/5827/PSA

Research Report Submitted in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the

Award of a Degree of Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering

……………………………………..

DAVID KADDU

SUPERVISOR

MARCH 2022
 DECLARATION

We hereby declare that this report has been compiled solely by us. We authenticate that the
information presented herein has never been submitted by any student to any university or
institution before.

NAME: MOGGA ISAAC

Signature ………………………………………………….

Date ……………………………………………………

NAME: LUYINDA EDWIN

Signature ………………………………………………….

Date ……………………………………………………

i
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

We thank the Almighty God for the abundant wisdom He gave to us throughout the research
period.

We convey our sincere gratitude to our beloved parents for the relentless psychological and
financial support they conveyed unto us throughout the research period.

We convey our gratitude to our project supervisor, Eng. David Kaddu, who guided us
throughout the process of working on this project. We are grateful for the academic insight
and guidance provided by Dr. Andrew Bwambale, especially in using the Paramics Software.

We thank the Director of the Department of Engineering at KCCA and his subordinates for
providing us with the requisite traffic data for this project.

Finally, our gratitude goes to everyone else who contributed to the success of this project.
May God bless you.

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 ABSTRACT

The need for mass transit systems in Urban Centers throughout Europe and the world over as
a result of increased passenger volumes and traffic congestion has led to the development of
Bus Rapid Transit Systems. Mass transit transport systems encourage a shift from individual
vehicle transportation to the use of mass transit systems due to their characteristics such as
reduced travel time & increased passenger comfort. Bus Rapid transit systems are a cheaper
alternative compared to metro railway transit systems making them a more viable option for
implementation in developing countries.

There is a high volume of passengers in the Sir Apollo Kaggwa Road corridor during the
peak hours. The available public service vehicles cannot cater for passenger volumes during
peak hours due to their low capacities, hence the need for a high capacity passenger service
system such as the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT).

This project involved an in-depth study of the existing travel time condtions and the expected
change after implementation. Minibuses (taxis) were used as a case study for existing travel
time conditions. Using O-D matrices, the traffic movements were simulated and the
simulation showed a 63% improvement in travel time.

The cost of implementing and maintaining the project was estimated and then compared with
the monetary value of benefits to be gained. Results from the findings indicate a cost-benefit
ratio of 0.1.

Findings from the O-D survey indicate that several vehicles (mostly bodabodas) travel from
Bwaise Roundabout to the city centre via Makerere Hill Road (Wandegeya side) in the
morning peak period. During the evening peak period, there is a high volume of passengers
that travel from Nsalo Road Junction to Bwaise via public means (mostly bodabodas). The
patterns observed show that introducing the BRT link along this route will solve the existing
congestion problem if people switch from their usual means to the BRT.

Generally, the project is not feasible, as the cost-benefit analysis is the biggest determiner of
feasibility (Roseke, 2019).

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

DECLARATION..............................................................................................................................i
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT...............................................................................................................ii
ABSTRACT...................................................................................................................................iii
LIST OF ACRONYMS.................................................................................................................vii
LIST OF FIGURES......................................................................................................................viii
LIST OF TABLES..........................................................................................................................ix
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION....................................................................................................1
1.1 Background.......................................................................................................................1
1.2 Problem statement.............................................................................................................2
1.3 Objectives..........................................................................................................................3
1.3.1 Main objective......................................................................................................3
1.3.2 Specific objectives...............................................................................................3
1.4 Justification of the study...................................................................................................3
1.5 Scope of the study.............................................................................................................4
2.0 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW..............................................................................5
2.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................................5
2.2 Features of BRT................................................................................................................5
2.2.1 Physical features...................................................................................................5
2.2.2 Operations............................................................................................................6
2.2.3 Technology...........................................................................................................6
2.3 Travel time and its relation to the BRT system................................................................6
2.3.1 Introduction..........................................................................................................6
2.3.2 Applications of Travel Time and Delay Data......................................................7
2.3.3 Definition of Terms Related to Travel Time and Delay Studies.........................7
2.3.4 Methods for Conducting Travel Time and Delay................................................8
2.4 Overview of Cost-Benefit Analysis..................................................................................8
2.4.1 Purpose of analysis...............................................................................................9
2.4.2 Approptiate measures for CBA..........................................................................10
2.4.3 Limitations of CBA............................................................................................10
2.5 General Guidelines for Structures Valuation..................................................................11
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 2.6 Origin-destination survey................................................................................................12
2.6.1 Road interview survey........................................................................................13
2.7 The Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) Design Parameters..........................................................13
2.7.1 Demand analysis................................................................................................13
2.7.2 Corridor selection...............................................................................................14
2.7.3 Network and service design...............................................................................14
2.7.4 Capacity and speed.............................................................................................14
2.7.5 Travel time.........................................................................................................15
2.7.6 Accessibility.......................................................................................................15
2.8 Summaries of earlier works and findings.......................................................................16
2.8.1 BRT feasibility assessment for GKMA (Integrated Transport Planning Ltd.,
2010) 16
2.8.2 Bangalore (D'Souza & Amar, 2011)..................................................................20
2.8.3 Myanmar (Kato, et al., 2011).............................................................................20
2.8.4 Operations, economics and efficiency of minibuses in Kampala (Ndibatya &
Booysen, 2020).................................................................................................................21
3.0 CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY......................................................................................22
3.1 Origin-destination Survey...............................................................................................22
3.1.1 Problems encountered........................................................................................23
3.2 Field study of existing travel time conditions.................................................................23
3.3 Simulation.......................................................................................................................24
3.4 Estimating costs of the BRT project...............................................................................25
3.4.1 Capital costs.......................................................................................................26
3.4.2 Cost of right-of-way acquisition........................................................................27
3.4.3 Operations and Maintenance Costs....................................................................28
3.5 Valuation of benefits.......................................................................................................29
3.5.1 Value of travel time............................................................................................29
3.5.2 Savings on auto (vehicle) operating costs..........................................................30
3.5.3 Savings on transit fare........................................................................................30
3.5.4 Savings on costs of emission damage................................................................30
3.5.5 Crash costs.........................................................................................................32
4.0 RESULTS, ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...................................................................33
4.1 Introduction.....................................................................................................................33

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 4.2 Travel time, O-D survey and simulation.........................................................................33
4.2.1 O-D survey and results of the simulation...........................................................34
4.3 Cost-benefit analysis.......................................................................................................36
4.3.1 Cost of right-of-way acquisition........................................................................37
4.3.2 Costs of Operation and Maintenance.................................................................38
4.3.3 Capital costs and overall cost total.....................................................................39
4.3.4 Valuation of benefits and comparison with cost................................................40
4.3.5 Calculation of value of benefits.........................................................................40
4.3.6 Comparison with the cost...................................................................................43
4.4 Origin-destination patterns at the zones..........................................................................44
4.4.1 Morning peak period..........................................................................................44
4.4.2 Evening peak period...........................................................................................47
4.5 Discussion of Results......................................................................................................50
4.5.1 Impact of the BRT on passenger travel time......................................................50
4.5.2 Cost of project implementation, quantification of benefits and comparison with
cost 50
4.5.3 Origin-Destination patterns................................................................................50
5.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS.............................................................52
5.1 Conclusions.....................................................................................................................52
5.2 Recommendations...........................................................................................................52
6.0 SELECTIVE RESEARCH REFERENCES.......................................................................53
7.0 APPENDIX.........................................................................................................................56
7.1.1 Appendix A: Field forms used during the travel time assessment.....................56
7.2 Appendix B : Online questionnaire.................................................................................60

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 LIST OF ACRONYMS

BRT – Bus Rapid Transit

PHF – Peak Hour Factor

CAD – Computer-Aided Design

ADT – Average Daily Traffic

FHWA – Federal Highway Administration

AADT – Annual Average Daily Traffic

BRTS – Bus Rapid Transit System

GKMA – Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area

KCCA – Kampala Capital City Authority

UNRA – Uganda National Roads Authority

MoW – Ministry of Works

Ltd. – Limited

SDA – Statutory Disturbance Allowance

CBA – Cost Benefit Analysis

O&M – Operation and Maintenance

VOC’s – Volatile Organic Compounds

EPA – Energy Policy Act

ROW – Right of Way

EIA – Environmental Impact Assessment

O-D – Origin-Destination

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 LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1 A part of Sir Apollo Kaggwa Road near Bwaise Roundabout................................3

Figure 2 A Google Maps image showing the geographical scope of this study....................4
Figure 3 Conceptual Layout for the proposed BRT station arrangement............................18
Figure 4 GOOGLE EARTH IMAGE OF THE STUDY AREA.........................................24
Figure 5 TABLE SHOWING THE DESIGN PARAMETERS FOR A STANDARD II
PAVED ROAD........................................................................................................................27
Figure 6 TABLE SHOWING THE ESTABLISHMENTS WITHIN THE ROAD
RESERVE AND THEIR QUANTITIES.................................................................................28
Figure 7 O-D matrix for the morning peak period in the Paramics Software......................35
Figure 8 O-D matrix for the evening peak period in Paramics Software.............................35
Figure 9 A 3D-IMAGE OF THE BRT LANE SIMULATION..........................................36

viii
 LIST OF TABLES

Table 1 A section of the road showing the zones..............................................................22

Table 2 O-D field table (reference: Traffic and Transportation Engineering notes 2021) 23
Table 3 VALUE OF TRANSIT TRAVEL TIME FOR VARIOUS TIME ELEMENTS
(ECONorthwest and Parsons Brinckerhoff Quade & Douglas Inc., 2002)..............................29
Table 4 Median main job monthly nominal wages for wage employees (UGX) (Uganda
Bureau of Statistics (UBOS), 2016).........................................................................................30
Table 5 Economic Values Used for Benefits Computations (2007 value of dollars)
(National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 2009).......................................................31
Table 6 A SUMMARY OF THE EMISSIONS THAT WERE CONSIDERED................31
Table 7 PARAMETERS THAT WERE ANALYSED FOR GIVEN VEHICLE TYPES.32
Table 8 O-D matrix for the morning peak period...............................................................34
Table 9 O-D matrix for the evening peak period...............................................................35
Table 10 A TABLE SHOWING THE COST BREAKDOWN OF THE PROJECT..........39
Table 11 A TABLE OF THE PEAK HOUR EXTRACTED FROM KCCA TRAFFIC
COUNTS 2021.........................................................................................................................40
Table 12 A TABLE SHOWING THE VALUE OF ALL BENEFITS QUANTIFIED
(ALL FIGURES ARE IN UGX)..............................................................................................43

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 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background
Bus Rapid Transit is a high-quality bus-based transit system that delivers fast, comfortable,
and cost-effective services at metro-level capacities. It does this through the provision of
dedicated lanes, with busways and iconic stations typically aligned to the center of the road,
off-board fare collection, and fast and frequent operations (ITDP: Institute for Transportation
& Development Policy, 2011).

A report by Integrated Transport Planning Ltd. (Integrated Transport Planning Ltd., 2010)
describes BRT as a high-quality bus-based transit system that delivers fast, comfortable, and
cost-effective urban mobility through the provision of segregated right-of-way infrastructure,
rapid and frequent operations, and excellence in marketing and customer service. Plans and
studies for various BRT-type alternatives have been prepared since the 1930s, although there
has been a greater emphasis on BRT in recent years than ever before (Levinson, et al., 2002).
A concept study conducted in 1970, The Potential for Bus Rapid Transit (Associates, 1970),
indicated that freeway systems are potentially usable by express buses and, with
modification, for exclusive bus lanes or busways (Associates, 1970). According to this study,
the key factors in evaluating the potential benefits of BRT include capital costs, operating
costs, route configuration and distribution in the city centre and other major activity centres.
BRT works, and recent developments around the world have shown that BRT systems can
provide high-quality, high-performance, attractive rapid transit in a variety of settings
(Levinson, et al., 2002).

Passenger transportation in Greater Kampala is plentiful but is badly affected by traffic

congestion, excessively reliant on large numbers of minibuses, and lacks an efficient
network. A high proportion of passengers have to make two to three transfers to complete
their journeys, and there is a lack of high‐capacity transportation services, especially effective
cross‐city links. The public transport network and supply needs to be significantly
strengthened to address these weaknesses (Integrated Transport Planning Ltd., 2010).
Therefore, BRT, being an efficient means, as described in the previous paragraph, can be a
remedy to Kampala’s transport problem.

Sir Apollo Kaggwa Road is a 3.4 km stretch in Kampala Central Division, running from
Makerere Kavule (Bwaise/Kubbiri roundabout) to Nsalo Road junction (near Old Kampala

1
Police Station). It leads to the Northern Bypass, which is a major road and is therefore of
great economic significance.

Several commuter taxis use this road daily and are partly responsible for the heavy traffic
congestion usually experienced on this road, especially around the Kubbiri roundabout. Using
a Bus Rapid Transit system would be a profitable investment for the government and would
provide convenience to the commuters through reduced travel time, travel costs and other
aspects like comfort.

Traffic congestion is not only costly, but it is also harmful to the environment due to the
excessive generation of carbon monoxide, which is highly toxic to the environment and
wildlife (Chin & Rahman, 2011). I sought to discover whether a BRT system would be
feasible, based on its impacts on travel time, its cost-benefit ratio and the origin-destination
patterns of the road users. This research was aimed at discovering if a BRT is fit for Sir
Apollo Kaggwa Road based on the three factors: travel time, cost-benefit ratio and vehicle O-
D patterns.

1.2 Problem statement

Sir Apollo Kaggwa Road experiences a problem of traffic congestion, largely caused by the
increasing number of vehicles gaining access to the Northern Bypass and those leaving via
the Bwaise roundabout, yet its carriageway is made of only two lanes. The only pedestrian
crossing (near the Makerere University western gate) is redundant, as vehicles never wait for
pedestrians to cross, the reason being that the motorised traffic volumes are high. Delays due
to traffic congestion pose a threat not only economically but also environmentally and
psychologically.

The Bus Rapid Transit System overcomes this problem through the segregated right-of-way
infrastructure, priority at signalised junctions and its ability to convey many passengers in a
single trip – given the big size of the buses. On top of that, the buses are comfortable and air-
conditioned.

The existing means of public transport have one weakness in common; they carry few
amounts of passengers and yet slowly, especially the minibuses/taxis. It is not uncommon to
hear passengers in these minibuses complaining of discomfort due to excessive loading and

2
delays at the taxi stops. During the peak hours, vehicles are often seen manoeuvering the
traffic congestion in the wrong lane or on the road shoulder in an effort to avoid delays.

BRT systems are reputable for solving such problems in many countries where they have
been introduced. It is therefore necessary to research the viability of introducing a reliable
means like BRT, as it has worked for many countries.

Figure 1 A part of Sir Apollo Kaggwa Road near Bwaise Roundabout

1.3 Objectives
1.3.1 Main objective
To assess the feasibility of a Bus Rapid Transit system along Sir Apollo Kaggwa Road.

1.3.2 Specific objectives

a) To examine the impact of the BRT system on passenger travel time along the route.
b) To determine the cost-benefit ratio of the BRT system.
c) To study the origin-destination patterns of vehicles at the road junctions during peak
periods.

1.4 Justification of the study

It was necessary to carry out this assessment due to the excessive traffic congestion observed
along Sir Apollo Kaggwa Road during the peak hours. During peak hours, a passenger takes

3
30 minutes to move from Nsalo Road Junction to Bwaise Roundabout and vice versa – a
journey of only 3.4 kilometres. BRT systems are reputable for reducing passenger travel time,
and therefore this research was necesssary.

Introducing a BRT system would necessitate the addition of lanes to the existing carriageway,
which would be very costly to the government. It was therefore necessary to estimate the
costs of implementing and maintaining such a system as well as the monetary value of the
benefits it would provide. A cost-benefit comparison is very important for such a study.

It was necessary to study the origin-destination patterns in order to understand the travel
behaviour of the road users and thus determine whether it is practical to introduce a BRT link
along the route.

1.5 Scope of the study

The study was carried out between Nsalo Road Junction and Bwaise Roundabout (see figure
below). The corridor spans 3.4 km. The study was done to assess feasibility in regard to
travel time, cost-benefit ratio and vehicle O-D patterns. In order to achieve the above
objectives, various field data were collected as elucidated in chapter 3.

4
Figure 2 A Google Maps image showing the geographical scope of this study

5
 2.0 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Introduction
Bus Rapid Transit is a high-quality bus-based transit system that delivers fast, comfortable,
and cost-effective urban mobility through the provision of segregated right-of-way
infrastructure, rapid and frequent operations, and excellence in marketing and customer
service. It enhances personal mobility both by reducing travel time, and hence also its cost of
provision and by improving the travel experience. (Integrated Transport Planning Ltd., 2010).

Its name derives from the three essential characteristics of the system:

a) It employs the bus as the means of mechanised mobility.

b) The system is rapid, in that it increases travel speeds.
c) The system provides transit, that is the high volume movement of people in an urban
environment.

BRTS consists of segregated lanes dedicated exclusively to these buses. The outermost or the
innermost lanes can be reserved for the system. In the case of innermost lanes, bus stops can
be set up in the median to further improve the flow. BRTS first witnessed its major growth in
Curitiba, Brazil in 1974. This urged other cities to develop similar systems. In the late 1990s,
BRTS grew rapidly in Quito, Ecuador, Los Angeles, USA and Bogotá, Columbia. The
TransMilenio project in Bogotá was a huge success and set cutting-edge standards for the
forthcoming BRT systems across the world. As of 2005, up to 70 BRT systems have been
witnessed all over the globe (D'Souza & Amar, 2011).

2.2 Features of BRT.

BRT can be more precisely defined through an analysis of features offered by the system.
These are the key characteristics, and they are used by the designers and developers. The
features include the following.

2.2.1 Physical features.

a) Segregated busways or bus-only roadways, predominantly in the median of the
roadway.
b) Existence of an integrated ‘’network’’ of routes and corridors.

6
 c) Enhanced stations that are convenient, comfortable, secure, and weather protected.

2.2.2 Operations
a) Frequent and rapid service between major origins and destinations
b) Ample capacity for passenger demand along corridors.
c) Fare-integration between routes, corridors, and feeder services

2.2.3 Technology
a) Low emission vehicle technologies
b) Low–noise vehicle technologies
c) Automatic fare collection and fare verification technology
d) System management through centralized control centre, utilizing applications of
intelligent Transportation systems (ITS) such as automatic vehicle location
e) Signal priority and grade separation at intersections (Anon 2007)

Most systems (80%) have some exclusive running way-either a bus-only road or a bus lane,
more than 3/4 provide all-day service, and about 2/3 have stations rather than stops. Only
about 40% use it, and only 17% have off-fare collection systems. Only 3 existing systems had
all the features (Levinson, et al., 2002)

2.3 Travel time and its relation to the BRT system

2.3.1 Introduction
Transportation is essential for any nation's development and growth by facilitating trade,
commerce, and social interaction while consuming a considerable portion of time and
resources. Many organizations and agencies exist to plan, design, build, operate, and maintain
transportation systems. The movements of people and goods, which is the basis of
transportation, has always been undertaken to accomplish those basic objectives or tasks that
require a transfer from one location to another. Every day, millions of people leave their
homes and the system is one of the most important among transportation systems. In
conducting a travel time study, information may also be collected on the locations, durations,
and causes of delays. When this is done, the study is known as a travel time and delay study.
Data obtained from travel time and delay studies give a good indication of the level of service
in the study section. These data also aid the traffic engineer in identifying problem locations,
which may require special attention to improve the overall flow of traffic on the route
(Abojaradeh, 2013)
7
2.3.2 Applications of Travel Time and Delay Data

The data obtained from travel time and delay studies may be used in any one of the following
traffic engineering tasks (Abojaradeh, 2013):

 Determination of the efficiency of a route with respect to its ability to carry traffic.
 Identification of locations with relatively high delays and the causes for those delays
 Performance of before-and-after studies to evaluate the effectiveness of traffic
operation improvements
 Determination of travel times on specific links for use in trip assignment models
 Compilation of travel time data that may be used in trend studies to evaluate the
changes in efficiency and level of service with time

2.3.3 Definition of Terms Related to Travel Time and Delay Studies

The following are terms commonly used in travel time and delay studies:

1. Travel time is the time taken by a vehicle to traverse a given section of a highway.
2. Running time is the time a vehicle is actually in motion while traversing a given
section of a highway.
3. Delay is the time lost by a vehicle
4. Operational delay is that part of the delay caused by the impedance of other traffic.
5. Stopped-time delay is that part of the delay during which the vehicle is at rest. total
time delay which includes fixed delay and delay due to stopping for pick up and discharge of
passengers.
6. Fixed delay is that part of the delay caused by control devices such as traffic signals.
This delay occurs regardless of the traffic volume or the impedance that may exist.
7. Travel-time delay is the difference between the actual travel time and the ideal travel
time assuming that a vehicle traverses the study section at the posted speed limit.

2.3.4 Methods for Conducting Travel Time and Delay

Several methods have been used to conduct travel time and delay studies. These methods can
be grouped into two general categories:

1. Those using a test vehicle and

2. Those not requiring a test vehicle.

8
The particular technique used for any specific study depends on the reason for conducting the
study and the available personnel and equipment (Abojaradeh, 2013).

Methods Requiring a Test Vehicle

This category involves three possible techniques: floating average-speed, and moving-vehicle
techniques (Abojaradeh, 2013).

Methods Not Requiring a Test Vehicle

This category includes the license-plate method and the interview method (Abojaradeh,
2013).

Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) Advanced Technologies

ITS, which is also referred to as Telematics, generally can be described as the process
through which data on the movement of people and goods can be collected, stored, analyzed,
and related information disseminated. The process has been used in many areas of
transportation engineering including transportation, traveller information, electronic toll
payment, and safety. The onset of ITS has facilitated the development of advanced
technologies to support the system. The use of cell phones to collect travel time roadways is
one such technology. A commonly used technology for locating the positions of cell phones
is the GPS satellite system. This system can locate the position of a cell phone with an
accuracy of between 15 and 90 ft. By probing cell phones on highways, the technology is
used to determine average speeds and travel times along highways.

2.4 Overview of Cost-Benefit Analysis

Cost/benefit analysis (also called benefit-cost analysis) is a method used to evaluate public
expenditure decisions (Ang-Olson & Mahendra, 2011). The analysis involves identifying and
quantifying all the benefits and costs that will accrue to society if a project is undertaken.
Cost/benefit analysis thus helps determine the economically efficient investment alternative,
i.e., one that maximizes the net benefit to society from an allocation of resources. For
transportation projects, this involves estimating a dollar value for benefits to users of the
facility, a value for social benefits, and comparing these benefits to project capital,
operations, and maintenance costs. Total costs are subtracted from total benefits to calculate
net benefit.
9
2.4.1 Purpose of analysis
The purpose of a cost/benefit analysis is to determine the project alternative that would
provide the greatest net benefit to the local area, region, or nation, by comparing the
monetary value of benefits and costs of each alternative (U.S. GAO 2005). The benefits and
costs will depend on the features of the project, estimates of future travel demand, and
characteristics of the local area or region, such as the local economic and transportation
conditions. Transportation agencies are typically required to do a detailed cost/benefit
analysis to justify investment in a particular project. Such an analysis compares project
alternatives with the “no build” base case, to determine a locally preferred alternative.

To enable comparison of alternatives, it is necessary to standardize the categories of benefits

and costs that are considered and the methodology that is used to calculate them. Direct
benefits to users of the transportation system include travel time savings, vehicle operating
expenses and out-of-pocket expenses, and reduced crash costs. Other direct benefits can
accrue to users and non-users, such as reductions in emissions, noise, and other
environmental impacts. While these impacts can be relatively simple to estimate, much
variation exists in how benefits are monetized. Indirect benefits can arise from increased
economic development and land development; these are often difficult to estimate, and
therefore are often omitted in transportation cost/benefit analyses. The costs against which
these benefits are weighed are also similarly varied. The construction, operation, and
maintenance costs of a project are relatively easier to estimate than the costs of traffic delays
during construction or the costs of long-term environmental impacts.

The most critical component of a cost/benefit analysis for a BRT project is likely to be the
estimation of impacts on vehicle delay and transit ridership. While the calculation of these
impacts will differ with every project, it is possible to evaluate hypothetical projects using
plausible ranges for key parameters (such as traffic volume and transit ridership) so as to
illustrate how these parameters influence the outcome. The calculation of benefits is
particularly important and will depend on assumptions about the study area of the project, the
monetary values assumed for the benefits and costs, and the duration over which the different
costs and benefits will occur (i.e., short term or long term). Costs and benefits are usually
calculated cumulatively over a project period that represents some reasonable planning
horizon, depending on the nature of the project; 10 to 30 years is most commonly used (ITE
2009).

10
2.4.2 Approptiate measures for CBA
There are several measures to compare benefits to costs in a cost/benefit analysis. The
Federal Highway Administration recommends the use of either the Net Present Value (NPV)
measure or the Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) to compare benefits to costs (FHWA 2003). These
two most widely used measures have been used in the illustrative analysis in this project and
are described herein.

NPV: All benefits and costs over the project’s life cycle are discounted to present values and
the costs are subtracted from the benefits to obtain the NPV, which must be a positive
number for the project to be justified. When multiple project alternatives exist, the alternative
with the largest NPV of net benefits is typically the preferred alternative, though sometimes,
other factors including project risks and funding availability may play a role in the selection
of an alternative with a lower, positive NPV (FHWA 2003).

BCR: The BCR is a ratio where the present value of benefits (including negative benefits or
disbenefits) is divided by the present value of the initial agency investment cost. When
benefits exceed costs, the ratio is greater than 1 and implies that the project is worth pursuing.

2.4.3 Limitations of CBA

Despite its many advantages, there are limitations to conducting a cost/benefit analysis in the
context of converting a highway lane to a BRT lane. Transit projects often have several
impacts that cannot be easily measured or expressed in dollars and are thus, omitted from the
analysis. For example, future economic development impacts and spillover impacts in other
jurisdictions are often not taken into account by an agency focusing only on local costs and
benefits.

Additionally, the distribution of benefits may sometimes be as or more important than the
actual values of calculated benefits. For example, transit projects often bring benefits by
providing mobility to people with low incomes, disabilities, or with otherwise limited access
to transportation options. The benefits to these groups may be as important to consider as
travel time savings.

Another limitation is that the results of a cost/ benefit analysis depend on assumptions for
which justifiable alternative assumptions are always possible causing the final results to

11
sometimes vary substantially. A sensitivity analysis must therefore always be done to
illustrate the change in results with alternative values of inputs and assumptions.

2.5 General Guidelines for Structures Valuation

Structures should be valued at replacement cost to ensure fair and adequate compensation. It
is evident from the structures present on the land in Uganda that stuctures are not unifrom –
neither in design nor in the method of construction (Ministry of Lands, Housing and Urban
Development, 2017).

a) Where the market information is available: the assessor should use the Direct
Comparison Method:

Replacement cost of structures (comparable sale approach) = Market Value + statutory

disturbance

Where:

 Market Value as defined in section 8 (Ministry of Lands, Housing and Urban

Development, 2017)
 Disturbance compensation as defined in section 6.9 (Ministry of Lands, Housing and
Urban Development, 2017)

To determine the market value of structures, a range of valuation factors are considered
during the valuation process, these can include the following:

b) Where market information is not available: to determine the replacement cost,the

assessor should use the contractor’s method, by way of Bill of Quantities. A
fundamental principle for replacement housing is that it should provide options for
improvement. The National Physical Planning Standards and Guidelines (2011)
provide guidance on the use of durable materials. The determination of replacement
cost of a housing structure, therefore, requires an adjustment of the bill of quantities to
include items of a minimum standard of specification.

12
 Replacement cost of structures (contractor’s method) = Cost of construction +
Statutory Disturbance allowance

2.6 Origin-destination survey

Origin‐destination (O‐D) surveys provide a detailed picture of the trip patterns and travel
choices of a city’s or region’s residents. These surveys collect valuable data related to
households, individuals and trips. This information allows stakeholders to understand travel
patterns and characteristics; measure trends; provide input to travel demand model
development, forecasting, and planning for area‐wide transportation infrastructure needs and
services; and, monitor progress in implementing transportation policies (R.A. Malatest &
Associates Ltd., 2011).

In a transportation study, it is often necessary to know the exact origin and destination of the
trips. It is not only necessary to know how many trips are made, but also group these trips
with reference to the zones of their origin and destination. Other information yielded by the
O-D survey includes: land-use of the zones of origin & destination, household characteristics
of the trip-making family, time of the day when journeys are made, trip purpose and mode of
travel (Harsh, 2015).

The following are some of the techniques available for conducting an O-D survey: home
interview survey, road-side interview survey, post-card questionnaire survey, registration
number plate survey and tags on vehicles.

2.6.1 Road interview survey

Road-side interview survey is one of the methods of carrying out a screen-line or cordon
survey. The road-side interview survey can be done either directly interviewing drivers of
vehicles at selected survey points or by issuing prepaid post cards containing questionnaire to
all or a sample of the drivers. The survey points are selected along the junction of the cordon-
line or screen-line with the roads. Less than 5000 population – External cordon is sufficient.
For dual carriageways or roads with very little traffic the traffic in both the directions is dealt
with simultaneously. In other cases the traffic in 2 directions will be interviewed at different
times. If the survey covers most of the day it may be sufficient to interview traffic in one

13
direction only and to assume that the journeys in the opposite direction are the same as the
direction interviewed (Harsh, 2015).

2.7 The Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) Design Parameters

2.7.1 Demand analysis
This helps to understand the size of customer demand along the corridors and the
geographical location of origins and destinations permits planners to closely match system
characteristics to customer needs.

There are two methods for estimating customer demand:

a) The quick assessment method.

This allows cities to roughly estimate demand in a relatively short period and within a modest
budget. Basic traffic counts are combined with boarding and lighting surveys of existing
public transport services. The likely demand of the BRT system will be roughly equal to the
existing public transport ridership along the corridor plus a percentage of new passengers
from private vehicles.

b) Assessment with transportation model.

If a city already possesses the basis for documenting trips through a full transportation
demand model, then such a model can provide a level of detail that will produce a more
precise demand estimation. Using one of the recognized transport modelling software
packages in conjunction with surveys, counts and analysis will give greater certainty in the
likely ridership but will also require more time and resources to complete.

2.7.2 Corridor selection

Corridors are chosen based on a range of factors, including customer demand, network
advantages, roadway characteristics, ease of implementation, costs, political considerations
and social equity.

2.7.3 Network and service design

The system can be either closed or open:

a) Closed system
14
This implies that the corridor access is limited to a prescribed set of operators and a restricted
number of vehicles.

b) Open system

This permits any existing operator to utilize the bus way.

Another operational decision involves whether to choose a trunk-feeder configuration or the

configuration of direct service. A trunk feeder system allows smaller vehicles to be utilized in
lower-density areas while the main corridors can operate more efficiently with larger, trunk-
line vehicles.

On the other hand, use a single vehicle to connect a residential area to the central districts of
the city.

2.7.4 Capacity and speed

A BRT competes in terms of travel time, comfort, cost, and convenience. Therefore it is
important to know how many passengers it can carry per hour and by how many buses.

Intersection and signal control

There are design solutions that optimize the total time saving of all modes. Turning
restrictions are used to aid intersection performance. Also, location of a BRT station near the
intersection may be convenient at times for passengers. Finally, priority at traffic signals is an
option.

2.7.5 Travel time

The Stated Preference Model (SP method) is one method that is used to determine the service
attributes of BRT that influence the choice decision of travellers (Satiennam et al. 2016). An
SP experiment was developed based on service attributes influencing BRT mode choice
behaviour. These attributes include:

a) Access Time: The access time is the time taken for a passenger to move from his/her
residential location and access the desired transportation mode at the station.
b) Waiting time at the station: Different levels of waiting time are set during the SP
method to study the influence of variation of waiting time on BRT choice.

15
c) In-vehicle travel time: This depends on the operating speed of the different proposed
systems.
d) Egress Time: This is the time taken for the traveller to move from the bus station to
his/her final station.
e) Total travel time: The total travel time is the combination of all travel times between
the traveller’s residential locations and destinations, including access time, waiting time, in-
vehicle travel time and egress time.

2.7.6 Accessibility
Stations should be accessible by bus, car and/or foot. They should provide adequate berthing
capacity, passing ways for express buses and suitable amenities for passengers (Levinson et
al. 2003). BRT station characteristics include spacing, length, and location.

a) Spacing

The spacing of stations along freeways and busways ranges from 2000 to 21,000 feet
enabling performance at high speed. Spacing on arterial streets ranges from 1000 feet to 4000
feet.

b) Location

Most stations are located curbside or on the outside of bus-only roads and busways. Several
systems have centre island platforms.

c) Length

Station length depends on bus volumes. Stations typically accommodate 2 to 3 buses

although busy stations may accommodate up to 5 vehicles. Station lengths may also
depend on the type of buses operated.

16
2.8 Summaries of earlier works and findings
2.8.1 BRT feasibility assessment for GKMA (Integrated Transport Planning Ltd.,
2010)
A BRTS plan for Kampala has already been conceived and the pre-feasibility was finalised in
May 2010. Being a pre-feasibility study, it does not develop the detail of the implementation
but rather establishes that the implementation of BRT in Greater Kampala is deliverable, in
its widest sense, and financially viable.

Operating Context

Kampala City Council estimated that in 2007 nearly 8,000 minibuses were operating urban
services in the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area. The majority of the minibuses have 14
seats with a few larger vehicles. These minibuses are regularly overcrowded, emit high levels
of pollutants, involve long journey times and high levels of discomfort for passengers.
Despite it being many years since large buses were routinely operated within Kampala, there
is a residual memory of service quality and affordable fares that can be exploited by the BRT
initiative. However service pricing will be crucial in obtaining public acceptance, and so fares
should be no higher than those officially charged by UTODA (and avoid the peak-demand
extortion that is widely reported). If this is achieved, then time savings and service access
convenience can effectively be passed through to passengers for free.

How BRT might be applied in Kampala

It is recommended that the BRT system recovers all direct bus operational and financing
costs, together with system management and infrastructure maintenance. At current fares
levels, this should still offer a significant commercial surplus arising from faster operation
and the economies of large buses. This surplus should be applied to system development,
rather than fares reductions that would not be sustainable over the network. Median BRT
operation with bilateral stations is recommended for operational flexibility and ease of
insertion. Standard 12m buses with 2-step entry operating from low platforms would suit the
vast majority of passengers, without constraining system capacity at the stations.

Transport Supply and Data Collection and Analysis

17
The estimated current demand levels indicate that public transport demand is highest along
Jinja Road, with approximately 120,000 passengers per day, and second-highest on Entebbe
Road, with approximately 105,000 passengers per day. Private car travel demand is highest
on Entebbe Road with approximately 65,000 passengers per day. Travel and commercial
characteristics differ between the routes analysed. Average fare levels vary between 70
USh/km (Jinja Road and Masaka Road) to 130 USh/km (Kira Road). There is a direct and
negative correlation between fare levels and traffic speeds. As well as a variation in average
fare levels between routes, there is also some variation in fare levels within routes, and this
lack of fare reliability is a characteristic that transport users often dislike. Operational speeds
for matatus and large buses vary considerably, ranging from 10 km/hr (Kira Road) to 23
km/hr (Entebbe Road), reflecting relatively low operational speeds, and the potential
advantages of BRT over current public transport provision (it is expected with efficient
operation and the benefits of physical segregation from general traffic that BRT can achieve
average speeds of up to 25km/hr). In-vehicle stationary time, the time passengers spend in the
vehicle while it is loading and unloading passengers, forms a considerable proportion of total
journey time (20% to 35%). This is a particular characteristic over which BRT can have a
significant advantage, with the efficiency of passenger boarding and alighting much
improved. Passenger perception surveys reveal that the main problems public transport users
cite with current provisions are low levels of comfort and safety and high journey times
(particularly dwell times). 73% of passengers indicate a willingness to pay for a trip in a
comfortable and air-conditioned vehicle (a type of vehicle typical on a BRT service). The
average increase in fare they are willing to incur is approximately UGX 200. Matatu
passengers form a broad section of Kampala demographics; there is an even split between
males and females, all age groups are well represented (although the majority are under 30),
and all income groups are well represented, broadly in line with the overall income split
within Greater Kampala.

Travel Demand Forecasting

An urban transport demand model was developed to:

18
 a) forecast future demand for transport without BRT (the do-nothing scenario);
b) forecast the likely response after the introduction of a new BRT system;
c) and to inform an appraisal of potential BRT pilot routes.

Forecast demand levels for the do-nothing scenario in the year 2013 reveal that passenger
transport will be highest on Jinja Road with 175,000 passengers per day (representing a 45%
increase on current demand levels) and second-highest on Entebbe Road with 140,000
passengers per day (representing a 35% increase on current demand levels). The relative
ranking of the busiest routes remain constant and there will be some divergence in overall
volume levels.

Forecast demand for BRT in the year 2013 is expected to be highest on Jinja Road with
approximately 135,000 passengers per day and second-highest on Entebbe Road with
105,000 passengers per day. Forecast demand for BRT in the year 2013 will be significant
(over 80,000) on Bombo and Masaka Road. Forecast demand will be very low for Port Bell
Road; with less than 20,000 passengers per day forecast for the year 2013.

BRT Concept Definition, depot design and location

In summary, the proposed concept design for the pilot route corridor is the median operation
system with staggered bilateral stations.

Figure 3 Conceptual Layout for the proposed BRT station arrangement

19
Given the size requirements of the depots, the main consideration will be the identification of
sufficient land available, and the cost of this land. Cost/land constraints will need to be
balanced against operational efficiencies of depot sites near the corridor and may lead to a
preference for sites towards the end of the tributary services where land may be easier to
come by and less costly than within the city (Integrated Transport Planning Ltd., 2010). This
is a major gap in the GKMA feasibility study which forms a foundation for our research.

Route Appraisal and Recommendation of Pilot Route

The route receiving the highest score in the appraisal is Jinja Road, followed by Bombo
Road, and these two routes in combination are recommended for the development of the pilot
corridor. It is proposed that physical infrastructure for the pilot corridor is constructed from
Bwaise in the north, running along Bombo Road, Yusufu Lule Road North, Haji Kasule Road
and back on to Bombo Road, and then continuing through the city centre along Kampala
Road before heading east along Jinja Road as far as Kireka. With the externalised system and
running lane and station configuration proposed, BRT services are not limited by the extent
of the physical infrastructure. This is why for the pilot corridor it is proposed that tributary
services continue as far as Mukono to the east, and along Gayaza Road to the north.
Therefore along these sections, BRT buses would continue out of the segregated BRT lane
and mix with general traffic.

The revenues of the system are shown to be well more than operating costs and the balance is
expected to be more than $10 million per annum. It can therefore be concluded that the BRT
pilot route is financially feasible. An economic appraisal of the scheme was conducted and
the Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR), Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return were
calculated and it was concluded that the economic benefits of the system exceed the
economic costs by a considerable margin and the scheme can therefore be regarded as
economically viable.

Summary of the findings

This study has examined major transport routes within Greater Kampala and through multi-
criteria appraisal made a recommendation for the further development and implementation of
a BRT pilot route in the short term. The potential patronage that might be attracted by BRT
on this route has been derived, operating cost calculated and capital cost defined. The
potential revenue is more than operating cost by a significant margin and as such, it may be
20
concluded that BRT in the form envisaged should be sustainable through private operator
delivery.

2.8.2 Bangalore (D'Souza & Amar, 2011)

The simulation results of a feasibility analysis of BRTS implementation in Bangalore indicate
that the BRTS saves travel time at all traffic conditions (D'Souza & Amar, 2011).

Buses have a constant speed of 30 kph, which is not affected by external traffic due to
dedicated lane allocation, there is a prioritized signal system in place; the vehicular traffic
follows the same speeds as the ordinary model, just that in this case the buses will not be
affected by that traffic; the service would be direct. On studying the above for one day; with
the same traffic trends as the one for the present scenario; I found a huge decrease in travel
time, which came down by more than 50% (D'Souza & Amar, 2011).

2.8.3 Myanmar (Kato, et al., 2011)

According to the outstanding issues presented in another feasibility analysis (Kato, et al.,
2011), the introduction of an exclusive lane reduces road capacity for other traffic and this
causes traffic congestion in other lanes. It is important to consider these factors when
evaluating the real impact of introducing a BRT system. Second, it is important to examine
the social impact and environmental aspects of BRT introduction. For example, the impact of
introducing the BRT on the participation of low-income people in social activities must be
investigated. The contribution made by a BRT system to the local and global environment
should be also evaluated. Third, it is critical to examine the engineering feasibility of
introducing a BRT system. For example, traffic control at intersections along the exclusive
lane must be carefully examined to avoid traffic accidents. The design of the BRT
stops/terminal, including the facilities for quick boarding and exits, should be investigated.
Financial issues are also important. Although the paper does not explicitly assume the
organization operating the BRT, it may be necessary to introduce financial support for the
BRT start-up. Finally, consensus-building must be considered. The participation of citizens,
the private sector and the public sectors are likely to be critical when promoting the
introduction of BRT.

21
2.8.4 Operations, economics and efficiency of minibuses in Kampala (Ndibatya &
Booysen, 2020)
This research was done with three objectives: 1) to study the operations of minibus taxis in
Kampala's paratransit system, to study and evaluate the economics of minibus taxis in terms
of passenger fares, drivers' daily cash flow, profits, and estimate the drivers' profitability
index (PI) of the minibus taxi business and to assess the efficiency of the paratransit system
from the passengers' and drivers' perspectives, and how it affects the overall minibus taxi
operations and the subsequent operational economics.

The findings showed an overall minibus inefficiency. The absence of market entry controls
into the minibus taxi business, coupled with inadequate regulation enforcement, poor minibus
taxi scheduling and non-existent booking mechanisms, render Kampala's minibus taxi system
inefficient to both the drivers and commuters. Furthermore, it was found that the operations
of minibus taxis are riddled with informalities, from management, regulations, to informal
stops and routes.

The authors recommended moderate minibus taxi system transformations and adequate
enforcement of paratransit regulations (i.e., regulation of quality, quantity licensing and
fares); reorganization of ownership from fragmented to institutionalized shareholding with
priority given to the existing owners and shares capped to prevent the domination of the
“transport mafia”; vehicle-renewal programs to replace old vehicles with new ones by giving
drivers flexible and cheap access to capital; and investment in ICT systems to support
scheduling, booking and fare collection (note that this is key in a rapid transit system).

All these recommendations can be enforced by switching from the paratransit system to the
rapid transit system, which is safer, cleaner, faster and more efficient for commuters and
more stable, secure and lucrative for the minibus drivers and the mini industries that depend
on them.

22
 3.0 CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY

In order to assess the feasibility of the BRT system, raw data was collected in the field and
analysis was done using Paramics Discovery software to study the behaviour of the BRT
system when implemented.

3.1 Origin-destination Survey

The O-D survey served two purposes: 1) to obtain the O-D matrices which would be fed into
Paramics Discovery Software and consequently obtain travel time through a simulation, and
2) to study the origin-destination patterns of vehicles at the road junctions.

The study area was divided into 12 zones, that is Nsalo Road junction (zone 1), Kyaddondo
Road (zone 2), Kyaddondo Road 2 (zone 3), Makerere Hill Road (zone 4 and 5), Nanfubambi
road junction (zone 6), Kasubi Road junction (zone 7), George Sserwadda Lane (zone 8),
Kipipa Road (zone 9), Nanfubambi 2 Road (zone 10), Muganzi Awongererwa Road (zone
11) and Bwaise Roundabout (zone 12). This was done because the simulation software
requires zones to load traffic onto the road.

23
Table 1 A section of the road showing the zones

The survey was carried out from Monday 3rd January to Friday 14th January in the morning
and evening peak periods (07:00 hrs to 10:00 hrs and 17:00 to 20:00 hrs repectively), as these
were the identified peak morning and evening hours from the KCCA junction turning counts.

With the help of a traffic police officer, vehicles were stopped and drivers were asked to give
information about their origin, destination, purpose of their movement and the number of
passengers being carried. At some sections, the vehicle queues during traffic congestion were
taken advantage of to collect data. The data was written into tables as shown below.

TIME OF VEHICLE ORIGIN DESTINATION PURPOSE OCCUPANCY

INTERVIEW TYPE

3.1.1 Problems encountered

The O-D survey was not as smooth as expected because of the following:

24
Table 2 O-D field table (reference: Traffic and Transportation Engineering notes 2021)
 a) Some drivers refused to stop even when signalled by the the traffic officer.
b) Some drivers withheld information (and seemed to lie) about their movements.
c) There was a need to stand by the roadside for long hours and the weather was
unbearable especially in the afternoons.
d) There was no parking space in certain zones.
e) The exercise was expensive

3.2 Field study of existing travel time conditions

In this objective, the aim was to determine by how much a BRT system is capable of
reducing passenger travel time from the point of highest demand (the Origin) to the point of
highest interest (Destination). The case study considered was a taxi.

In the study, the time a passenger takes to travel from Bwaise Roundabout to Nsalo Road
Junction and vice versa was determined. This was done on three different weekdays
(Monday, Wednesday and Saturday) during the peak hours (7 a.m. – 8 a.m. and 5 p.m. – 6
p.m.), as identified in the KCCA junction turning counts.

During the exercise, two taxis were used as test cars. First, the current travel time of the
minibuses was determined to assess how much time commuters spend traversing the road.

A Travel Time and Delay form was used (reference in notes of Traffic Engineering), as
shown in Appendix A.

One observer boarded a taxi at Nsalo Road Junction and the other boarded from Bwaise
Roundabout at the same time.

Using an application for measuring distance, the cumulative lengths of the checkpoints were
determined (each of the observers had two gadgets in hand). The same gadget was used to
record the number of stops.

Using the second gadget, the Timer application was used to record the cumulative travel time
and the delays. The data collected was then analysed as explained in section 3.1.1.

3.3 Simulation
A Google Earth image was obtained, and this was exported to AutoCAD Civil 3D and the
outline developed was exported to Paramics Discovery software. The O-D matrix was fed
25
into the software, and consequently, manipulation of the ‘visualise’ tab enabled us to
determine travel time for both BRT buses and general traffic.

Figure 4 GOOGLE EARTH IMAGE OF THE STUDY AREA

3.4 Estimating costs of the BRT project

The categories of costs that have been considered for this study are capital costs of materials,
equipment, infrastructure construction, new buses and right-of-way acquisition. O&M costs
have also been considered (Ang-Olson & Mahendra, 2011).

To estimate the costs, data was gathered regarding assumptions for BRT costs as a function
of physical characteristics of the facility and stations, vehicle type, and operational
characteristics (Kittelson and Associates, 2007).

26
3.4.1 Capital costs
TCRP Report 118 (Kittelson and Associates, 2007) presents a range of capital costs for BRT systems, depending on facility type, station type, vehicle
type, fare collection system, and other information and safety systems. This source was used to estimate capital costs for this feasibility assessment. For
this research, a median arterial busway, a designated station, conventional articulated vehicles (80-90 passengers), barrier enforced payment system, the
availability of traffic signal priority, passenger on-board information, and enhanced safety and security systems have been assumed.

The following table shows the assumptions for capital costs that were used in the analysis, along with the assumed costs for the different BRT features.
Right-of-way acquisition costs were calculated separately.

CURRENT VALUE QUANTITIES

1
CAPITAL COST ASSUMPTIONS VALUE IN 2004 (USD) (USD)2 UNITS USED
Median arterial busway 6,000,000 8,855,543 per mile 2.1 miles3
Designated Station 150,000 221,389 per station 4 stations
Conventional articulated buses (80-90
passengers) 500,000 737,962 per bus 6 buses4
Barrier enforced payment system 50,000 73,796 per machine 4 machines
Traffic signal priority 17,000 25,091 per intersection 1 intersection
Passenger on-board information 2,000 2,952 per bus 6 buses
Enhanced safety and security systems 70,000 103,315 per bus 6 buses

1
Cost of land for acquisition of a depot has not been included.
2
Average inflation rate is 2.19% (CPI inflation calculator – www.in2013dollars.com)
3
2.1 miles is the equivalent of 3.4km, the length of Sir Apollo Kaggwa Road
4
The number of buses was estimated from the AM peak hour volumes of passengers using taxis, bodabodas and saloon cars (KCCA counts ). From the online questionnaire,
(appendix), it was assumed that 77.5% of taxi users, 30% of boda users and 30% of auto car users would switch to BRT. The resulting total was divided by the capacity of an 85-
passenger bus.
26
3.4.2 Cost of right-of-way acquisition
To determine the cost of compensation or right-of-way acquisition, the Contractor’s Method
(Ministry of Lands, Housing and Urban Development, 2017) was used, as shown:

Replacement Cost of Structures = Cost of Construction + Statutory Disturbance

Allowance

A site visit was conducted to find out the establishments within a 10-metre distance from the
road shoulders, that is those within the road reserve. The road reserve width was obtained
from Table 4-5 of the Geometric Design Manual. (Ministry of Works and Transport, 2010).
This table shows parameters for a Standard II Paved Road. The establishments were
categorised and counted.

Figure 5 TABLE SHOWING THE DESIGN PARAMETERS FOR A STANDARD II PAVED ROAD

On the next site visit, interviews were done to find out the construction costs of some of
the establishments as well as the value of land on which they are. A statutory disturbance
allowance of 15% was used, assuming the owners are given at least 6 months to vacate
the premises (see literature review for detailed explanation). This information was then
used to estimate the compensation costs for each category of establishments.

The table below shows the different establishments that would be affected by the addition
of lanes, their quantities and cost ranges.

27
 COST RANGES
ESTABLISHMENT QUANTITY
(MILLION UGX)
Commercial buildings 29 2000 – 2500
Residential houses 23 1500 – 1800
Kiosks 17 1 – 1.5
Hostels 5 2500 – 3000
Retail shops 47 150 – 220
Churches 1 2500
Schools 7 1500 – 2000
Garages, washing bays, 500 – 700
17
parking areas
Idle land 1 1000
Hotels 2 2000 – 2500
Gas stations 6 1500 – 1700
Bakeries 1 500
Restaurants 6 100 - 200
Factories 1 3000
Figure 6 TABLE SHOWING THE ESTABLISHMENTS WITHIN THE ROAD RESERVE AND THEIR QUANTITIES

Other important establishments that could be affected include electricity lines, street lights,
stormwater drainages manholes and water pipes. These have not been costed in this analysis.
It is also evident that the tributary roads would have to be made shorter.

Since each establishment is unique, it was not possible to get individual costs for each of
them due to time constraints. Therefore, each establishment was costed based on an average
figure, in regard to the information collected on the questionnaire.

3.4.3 Operations and Maintenance Costs

Annual BRT operation and maintenance costs were taken to be $10,000 per lane mile (value
in 2004), assuming minor reconfiguration or widening of the arterial, based on figures
provided in TCRP Report 118 (Kittelson and Associates, 2007). These were converted to the
current value in dollars for use in the analysis. The design life of the project is taken to be 20
years (U.S. Department of Transportation, 2018)

Th resulting capital costs were added to the cost of right-of-way acquisition and the O&M
costs for the 20-year design life to obtain the overall cost of implementation.

3.5 Valuation of benefits

The general methodology was to obtain the money saved through shift to the BRT system in
terms of travel time, auto operating costs, transit fare, emissions damages costs and crash

28
costs (Ang-Olson & Mahendra, 2011). The assumption is that a proportion of passengers who
use taxis, bodabodas and auto cars only will shift to using BRT during the AM peak hour
(appendix 7.3). The pro portions were assumed based on a questionnaire survey. The AM
peak hour was obtained from KCCA traffic counts conducted in 2021 and it was used for the
analysis. The benefits were quantified as explained below.

3.5.1 Value of travel time

The value of travel time estimates was assumed as 50% of wage rate for in-vehicle time and
100% of wage rate for access, waiting, and transfer time (ECONorthwest and Parsons
Brinckerhoff Quade & Douglas Inc., 2002).

The in-vehicle time for taxis was determined from the trip with the longest travel time from
the travel time survey (appendix 7.1). The access, waiting, and transfer times were obtained
by subracting in-vehicle time from total travel time. The BRT access, waiting, and transfer
times were assumed, then the in-vehicle time was consequently obtained.

Table 3 VALUE OF TRANSIT TRAVEL TIME FOR VARIOUS TIME ELEMENTS (ECONorthwest and Parsons
Brinckerhoff Quade & Douglas Inc., 2002)

The average wage rate was determined as the median monthly earnings for people in paid
employment (Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS), 2016).

29
Table 4 Median main job monthly nominal wages for wage employees (UGX) (Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS),
2016)

3.5.2 Savings on auto (vehicle) operating costs

These costs include ownership costs and were assumed to be $8104 per annum for auto cars
and $8815 for minibuses (taxis) using figures from the American Automobile Association
(American Automobile Association, 2009) that include costs of fuel, maintenance, tyres,
insurance, license, registration and taxes, depreciation, and financing.

3.5.3 Savings on transit fare

These were calculated only for passengers who shift from using bodabodas to BRT, as taxi
users and auto car drivers would not experience this benefit.

3.5.4 Savings on costs of emission damage

Emissions rates for light duty vehicles were obtained from the Energy Policy Act (2005) and
damage costs were obtained from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s
report on Corporate Average Fuel Economy for 2012 to 2016, Passenger Cars and Light
Trucks (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 2009), reported in 2007 value of
dollars. These costs were converted to the current value of dollars for calculating the savings
on costs of emission damage.

30
Table 5 Economic Values Used for Benefits Computations (2007 value of dollars) (National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration, 2009)

Cost equivalent
TYPE OF Emissions damage costs (current value of
EMISSION Emission rates (grams/mile) ($/tonne) dollars per tonne)
VOC'S 1.36 1300 1748
Nitrogen oxides 0.95 5300 7127
Sulfur dioxide 0.008 31000 41684
Particulates 0.01 290000 389948
Carbon dioxide 369 20 27
Table 6 A SUMMARY OF THE EMISSIONS THAT WERE CONSIDERED

31
3.5.5 Crash costs
Crash costs per vehicle mile traveled for light duty vehicles was obtained from the NHTSA
(National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 2009) as $0.023 (2007 value of dollars).
These costs were converted to the current value of dollars for calculating the savings on crash
costs.

Based on some assumptions, the above parameters were analysed for some vehicle types and
not others (see table below). A tick shows that for a given vehicle type, a certain parameter
was analysed in terms of benefit. A cross means the opposite.

Table 7 PARAMETERS THAT WERE ANALYSED FOR GIVEN VEHICLE TYPES

32
 4.0 RESULTS, ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

4.1 Introduction
This chapter presents the analysis of results of the feasibility assessment. The obtained results
are presented below and discussion of results is given in section 4.5.

4.2 Travel time, O-D survey and simulation

On analysis of existing conditions, the following were observed (Refer to appendix 7.1 for
detailed results):

a) The overall travel time from Nsalo Road Junction to Bwaise is less in the morning
than it is in the evening. This is because most people who use this road access the city
centre in the morning and access their places of residence in the evening (as is
expected).
b) The overall travel time from Bwaise Roundabout is more in the morning than it is in
the evening because of the same reason mentioned in (a) above.
c) The causes of delays are loading and offloading of passengers, the time spent at
signalised junctions and traffic congestion.
d) Taxis do not have specific points for loading and offloading passengers.
e) The travel time on weekends is much less than that on weekdays.
f) The average speed of the taxis was 25 km hr -1 and the highest recorded speed was 43
km hr-1.
g) The shortest travel time was 10 minutes and 56 seconds and the longest was 30
minutes.

33
4.2.1 O-D survey and results of the simulation
From the O-D survey, two demand set matrices were generated, that is for morning and
evening peak periods. Both were imported into Paramics to show the vehicle movements.

DESTINATIONS
Zon Zon Zon Zon Zon Zon Zon Zon Zon Zone Zone Zone
ORIGINS e1 e2 e3 e4 e5 e6 e7 e8 e9 10 11 12
Zone 1 0 10 23 7 27 16 13 6 8 20 6 24
Zone 2 22 0 38 2 41 5 7 5 9 1 6 10
Zone 3 29 26 0 1 24 6 1 14 7 5 13 17
Zone 4 22 3 9 0 27 13 15 5 9 4 11 42
Zone 5 24 9 13 31 0 3 7 5 12 6 3 18
Zone 6 17 8 20 8 30 0 12 6 6 6 18 21
Zone 7 16 1 10 3 38 6 0 4 4 13 17 30
Zone 8 17 9 18 14 20 2 20 0 2 3 28 22
Zone 9 17 5 19 3 26 15 2 5 0 12 29 33
Zone 10 16 11 18 25 9 2 7 1 12 0 36 41
Zone 11 24 4 26 22 30 24 22 9 14 6 0 20
Zone 12 12 4 22 4 49 5 12 16 11 12 24 0
Table 8 O-D matrix for the morning peak period

KEY

Zone 1 – Nsalo Road Junction Zone 7 – Kasubi Road

Zone 2 – Kyaddondo Road Zone 8 – George Sserwadda Lane

Zone 3 – Kyaddondo Road 2 Zone 9 – Kipipa Road

Zone 4 – Makerere Hill Road Zone 10 – Nanfubambi 2

Zone 5 – Makerere Hill Road Zone11 – Muganzi Awongererwa

Zone 6 – Nanfubambi Road Zone 12 – Bwaise Roundabout

34
Figure 7 O-D matrix for the morning peak period in the Paramics Software

DESTINATIONS
ORIGIN Zon Zon Zon Zon Zon Zon Zon Zon Zon Zone Zone Zone
S e1 e2 e3 e4 e5 e6 e7 e8 e9 10 11 12
Zone 1 0 22 9 20 12 15 23 6 8 6 6 41
Zone 2 4 0 6 21 3 4 36 10 8 3 6 39
Zone 3 6 25 0 24 1 17 14 13 7 5 1 28
Zone 4 5 3 9 0 11 26 22 14 9 4 12 26
Zone 5 9 18 7 31 0 3 13 5 11 6 3 23
Zone 6 16 17 7 19 7 0 12 6 6 5 20 29
Zone 7 1 15 9 17 3 5 0 4 4 13 29 38
Zone 8 16 18 17 20 14 3 9 0 3 3 21 27
Zone 9 16 18 5 26 3 15 29 5 0 11 2 32
Zone 10 16 17 10 24 9 2 7 1 12 0 35 40
Zone 11 24 20 10 22 4 20 24 26 13 6 0 30
Zone 12 11 13 11 14 3 5 18 21 10 11 43 0
Table 9 O-D matrix for the evening peak period

Figure 8 O-D matrix for the evening peak period in Paramics Software

35
A two-lane model for general traffic was assumed with the reasoning that in case a vehicle
breaks down, there should be room for other vehicles to manoeuver without encroaching on
the BRT lane.

Below is an upclose 3D-image of the simulation running. The path shaded green is the BRT
lane whereas the grey tarmac is the path for non-BRT traffic.

Figure 9 A 3D-IMAGE OF THE BRT LANE SIMULATION

From the image above, we can see that the BRT bus travel time is 7 minutes, 15 seconds.
This was the case for both morning and evening peak periods. On studying the behaviour of
other vehicles (non-BRT) travelling along Sir Apollo Kaggwa Road, it is observed that they
take the same time to traverse the entire route.

4.3 Cost-benefit analysis

As explained in section 3.2, the cost of implementation contains 3 parameters: Capital Costs,
Cost of right-of-way acquisition and O&M costs. The costs of ROW acquisition and O&M
were calculated first.

36
4.3.1 Cost of right-of-way acquisition
It was noticed that some of these structures are not wholly in the 10-metre right-of-way reserve, for instance, Baskon Hostel. An assumption was made
that the entire structure has to be broken down, for purposes of simplifying the estimation. It is also assumed that the entire right-of-way reserve is to be
utilised.
SDA5 REPLACEMENT
QUANTIT
ESTABLISHMENT UNIT COST AMOUNT (MILLION COST (MILLION
Y
(MILLION UGX) (MILLION UGX) UGX) UGX)
Commercial buildings 29 2500 72500 10875 83375
Residential houses 23 1800 41400 6210 47610
Kiosks 17 1.5 25.5 3.8 29.3
Hostels 5 3000 15000 2250 17250
Retail shops 47 220 10340 1551 11891
Churches 1 2500 2500 375 2875
Schools 7 2000 14000 2100 16100
Garages, washing bays 17 700 11900 1785 13685
Idle land 1 1000 1000 150 1150
Hotels 2 2500 5000 750 5750
Gas stations 6 1700 10200 1530 11730
Bakeries 1 500 500 75 575
Restaurants 6 200 1200 180 1380
Factories 1 3000 3000 450 3450
GRAND
TOTAL 216850

5
SDA stands for Statutory Disturbance Allowance
37
The total compensation cost likely to be incurred by the government for the BRT
development will be approximately UGX 216.8 billion.

Note that this development will affect Makerere University land. This has not been included
in the computation.

4.3.2 Costs of Operation and Maintenance

As explained in section 3.2.3, the O&M costs were calculated as shown:

$10000 per lane mile per year = $14759 per lane mile per year in 2022

Total O&M cost for the 20-year design life= $14759×UGX3506.1×2 lanes×2.1 miles×20 years

= UGX 4,346,708,512

38
4.3.3 Capital costs and overall cost total
These were calculated in Microsoft Excel as shown in the table. Consequently, the three parameters were summed up at the end of the table.

CURRENT VALUE IN QUANTITIES TOTAL COSTS

CAPITAL COST ASSUMPTIONS VALUE IN 2004 (USD) DOLLARS UNITS USED (UGX)

Median arterial busway 6,000,000 8,855,543 per mile 2.1 miles 18,596,640.30

Designated Station 150,000 221,389 per station 4 stations 885,556

Conventional articulated buses 500,000 737,962 per bus 6 buses 4,427,772

Barrier enforced payment system 50,000 73,796 per machine 4 machines 295,184

Traffic signal priority 17,000 25,091 per intersection 1 intersection 25,091

Passenger on-board information 2,000 2,952 per bus 6 buses 17,712

Enhanced safety and security systems 70,000 103,315 per bus 6 buses 619,890
Total capital costs
(USD) 24,867,845.30
Total capital costs
(UGX) 87,189,152,406
ROW acquisition
(UGX) 216,850,000,000
O&M for design life
(UGX) 4,346,708,512
GRAND TOTAL
(UGX) 308,385,860,918
Table 10 A TABLE SHOWING THE COST BREAKDOWN OF THE PROJECT

39
The total cost of the project at the end of its design life is estimated as UGX
308,385,860,918.

4.3.4 Valuation of benefits and comparison with cost

From the questionnaire (see appendix), 77.5% of the respondents said they would switch
from their usual means to the BRT. An assumption was made that this percentage of people
during the peak hour would shift from using minibuses to the BRT. A 30% shift was assumed
for those who use motorbikes (bodabodas) and auto cars.

The table below was extracted from the junction counts which had the highest traffic volume
for the traffic survey carried out in 2021.

MINIBUSES
DURATION AUTO CARS BODABODAS TOTAL
(TAXIS)
07:00 -07:15 57 20 4
07:15 -07:30 29 30 4
07:30 -07:45 52 60 1
07:45 -08:00 41 36 5
total number of
179 146 14 339
vehicles
no of passengers 716 146 182 1044
passengers who
215 44 141 400
would switch
passengers who
501 102 41 644
would remain
buses required 3 1 2 6
vehicles
removed due to 54 44 11 108
shift
Table 11 A TABLE OF THE PEAK HOUR EXTRACTED FROM KCCA TRAFFIC COUNTS 2021

4.3.5 Calculation of value of benefits

Calculation of the benefits was done manually in accordance with section 3.3 and it is
summarised in Table 12.

a) Travel time benefits for taxis

 Scenario 1: If the estimated passengers shift to BRT;

417 × 8× 141
The value of in-vehicle travel time = =UGX 3920
60 ×2

40
 417 ×2 ×141
The value of access and waiting time = =UGX 1960
60

The 20-year value of benefits = 5880×365×20 = UGX 42,923,270

 Scenario 2: If the situation remains as it is;

417 ×29 × 141

The value of in-vehicle travel time = =UGX 14,209
60 ×2

417 ×1 ×141
The value of access and waiting time = =UGX 980
60

The 20-year value of benefits = 15,199×365×20 = UGX 110,879,335

Time-saving benefit gained = 110,879,335 – 42,923,270 = UGX 67,956,065

b) Travel time benefits for auto cars

 Scenario 1: If the estimated passengers shift to BRT;

215× 8 × 417
The value of in-vehicle travel time = =UGX 5977
60 ×2

215× 2 ×417
The value of access and waiting time = =UGX 2989
60

The 20-year value of benefits = 8966×365×20 = UGX 65,448,150

 Scenario 2: If the situation remains as it is;

215× 29 × 417
The value of in-vehicle travel time = =UGX 21,667
60 ×2

215× 1× 417
The value of access and waiting time = =UGX 1494
60

The 20-year value of benefits = 23161×365×20 = UGX 169077125

Time-saving benefit gained = 169077125 – 65448150 = UGX 103628975

41
 c) Savings on auto operating costs
 Taxis:

11×8804×3506.1×20 = UGX 6,790,894,968

 Auto cars:

54×8104×3506.1×20 = 30,686,509,152

d) Savings on transit fares

 Scenario 1 (if the estimated passengers shift to BRT)

44×4000×365×20 = UGX 1,284,800,000

 Scenario 2 (if the situation remains as it is)

44×2000×365×20 = UGX 642,400,000

e) Savings on greenhouse gas emissions

 Scenario 1: If the estimated passengers shift to BRT;

0.79 kg ×2.1 tons × $ 35 ×3506.1 ×6

=UGX 8,916,878
1000

 Scenario 2: If the situation remains as it is;

0.79 kg ×2.1 tons × $ 35 ×3506.1 ×108

=UGX 135,507,486
1000

Savings gained = 135507486 – 8916878 = UGX 126,590,608

f) Savings on crash costs

42
 The assumption here is that the buses will not experience any crashing, so the value
calculated is only for vehicles which will have been removed from the road.

$0.03 per vehicle mile×108×2.1×365×20×3506.1 = UGX 174,145,182

VEHICLE TYPE
PARAMETER MINIBUSES(TAXIS) BODABODAS AUTO CARS
67,956, 103,
Travel time benefits
065 628,975
6,790,894, 30,686,5
Savings on auto operating costs
968 09,152
642,400,0
savings on transit fare
00
savings due to reduction in emissions
126,590,608
savings due to reduction in crash costs
174,145,182
TOTAL SAVINGS (BENEFITS)
TO BE GAINED OVER THE
38,592,124,950
PROJECT DESIGN LIFE
Table 12 A TABLE SHOWING THE VALUE OF ALL BENEFITS QUANTIFIED (ALL FIGURES ARE IN UGX)

4.3.6 Comparison with the cost

The benefits to be gained from this project are much less than the cost. The Cost-Benefit ratio
is 0.1, which is less than 1.

43
44
 DESTINATIONS
Mak Mak
Nsalo Hill Hill George Muganzi Bwaise
road Kyaddondo Kyaddondo Road Road Nanfubambi Kasubi Sserwadda Nanfubambi Awongererwa Round
ORIGINS junction Road Rd 2 left right Road 1 Road Ln Kipipa Rd 2 Road About
Nsalo Rd Jcn 0 10 23 7 27 16 13 6 8 20 6 24
Kyaddondo
Road 22 0 38 2 41 5 7 5 9 1 6 10
Kyaddondo
Road 2 29 26 0 1 24 6 1 14 7 5 13 17
Mak Hill Rd
left 22 3 9 0 27 13 15 5 9 4 11 42
Mak Hill Rd
right 24 9 13 31 0 3 7 5 12 6 3 18
Nanfubambi
Rd 17 8 20 8 30 0 12 6 6 6 18 21
Kasubi Rd 16 1 10 3 38 6 0 4 4 13 17 30
George
Sserwadda Ln 17 9 18 14 20 2 20 0 2 3 28 22
Kipipa 17 5 19 3 26 15 2 5 0 12 29 33
Nanfubambi
Rd 2 16 11 18 25 9 2 7 1 12 0 36 41
Muganzi
Awongererwa
Rd 24 4 26 22 30 24 22 9 14 6 0 20
Bwaise
Round About 12 4 22 4 49 5 12 16 11 12 24 0

4.4 Origin-destination patterns at the zones

4.4.1 Morning peak period
The table below summarises the O-D results of the morning peak period.

45
46
From the table, a bar graph was drawn to show the typical vehicle movements in the morning
peak period.

A BAR GRAPH SHOWING THE NUMBER OF

VEHICLES ENTERING DIFFERENT ZONES IN
THE MORNING
323
279
214 215 190
90 120 96 117 93
77 88
on ad 2 t 1 ad Ln pa 2 ad t
eft gh ou
cti Ro Rd l ri ad Ro da Ki
pi R d
Ro Ab
n do ad ad Ro i ad bi
ju do Ro bi ub
a d
ad on on ll Ro s rw am er
w un
ro d
ad
d Hi i ll am Ka se ub er R o
lo yad y k kH ub S
an
f g se
a K K a a f ge on ai
Ns M M an or N w
N
G e iA Bw
a nz
ug
M

From the bar graph shown, it can be deduced that Makerere Hill Road (Wandegeya side)
receives most of the traffic in the morning. The following bar graph shows the zones that
contribute traffic to Makerere Hill Road in the morning.

A BAR GRAPH SHOWING THE NUMBER OF VE-

HICLES ENTERING MAKERERE HILL ROAD FROM
DIFFERENT ZONES IN THE MORNING
49
41 38
27 27 30 26 30
24 20
9
Jc
n ad 2
le
ft h0t Rd d Ln pa 2 Rd ou
t
Ro ad rig bi iR da pi Rd a
Rd Ro Rd ub Ki bi w Ab
lo do ll Rd am s ad er d
a on do Hi i ll ub Ka rw am er un
Ns a dd
don a k kH an
f
S se f ub on
g R o
ad M a an se
Ky M N
rg
e Aw ai
Ky N
zi
eo Bw
G an
ug
M

From the bar graph, it can be deduced that Bwaise Roundabout is the biggest contributor of
traffic to Makerere Hill Road (Wandegeya side). The following figures are pie charts
depicting the proportions of vehicles travelling in the morning and the purposes for which
they travel respectively.

47
 A PIE CHART SHOWING THE PROPORTIONS OF
VEHICLE TYPES USING THE ROAD IN THE
MORNING
BUSES
5% TRUCKS
3%
MINIBUSES (TAXIS) SALOON CARS
10% 39%

MOTORBIKES
43%

SALOON CARS MOTORBIKES MINIBUSES (TAXIS) BUSES TRUCKS

We can see that in the morning, Sir Apollo Kaggwa Road is mostly used by motorbikes
(bodabodas) and least used by trucks.

A PIE CHART SHOWING THE DIFFERENT TRIP

PURPOSES OF VEHICLES IN THE MORNING
HOME OTHERS
SHOPPING 7%
4% 11%
WORK
45%

SOCIAL/RECREATION
2%

EDUCATION
31%

WORK EDUCATION SOCIAL/RECREATION

SHOPPING HOME OTHERS

The chart above indicates that most people who use this road travel for work in the morning
and there are very few who go for social activities at this time.

48
 DESTINATIONS
Mak Mak
Nsalo Hill Hill George Muganzi Bwaise
road Kyaddondo Kyaddond Road Road Nanfubambi Kasub Sserwadda Kipip Nanfubambi Awongererw Round
ORIGINS junction Road o Rd 2 left right Road 1 i Road Ln a Rd 2 a Road About
Nsalo Rd Jcn 0 22 9 20 12 15 23 6 8 6 6 41
Kyaddondo
Road 4 0 6 21 3 4 36 10 8 3 6 39
Kyaddondo
Road 2 6 25 0 24 1 17 14 13 7 5 1 28
Mak Hill Rd
left 5 3 9 0 11 26 22 14 9 4 12 26
Mak Hill Rd
right 9 18 7 31 0 3 13 5 11 6 3 23
Nanfubambi
Rd 16 17 7 19 7 0 12 6 6 5 20 29
Kasubi Rd 1 15 9 17 3 5 0 4 4 13 29 38
George
Sserwadda
Ln 16 18 17 20 14 3 9 0 3 3 21 27
Kipipa 16 18 5 26 3 15 29 5 0 11 2 32
Nanfubambi
Rd 2 16 17 10 24 9 2 7 1 12 0 35 40
Muganzi
Awongererw
a Rd 24 20 10 22 4 20 24 26 13 6 0 30
Bwaise
Round About 11 13 11 14 3 5 18 21 10 11 43 0

4.4.2 Evening peak period

The table shown below summarises the O-D survey results for the evening peak period.

49
50
From the table, a bar graph was drawn to show the typical vehicle movements in the evening
peak period.

A BAR GRAPH SHOWING THE NUMBER OF

VEHICLES ENTERING DIFFERENT ZONES IN
THE EVENING
353
238 206
187 178
124 100 115 110 92
70 73
on ad 2 ft t 1 ad Ln pa 2 ad t
Rd le gh ad pi Rd ou
cti Ro ad ri Ro da Ki Ro Ab
ju
n
do do ad Ro i ad bi a
on on Ro Ro bi ub rw am w un
d
ad d ll Ka
s er
ro ad
d
ad Hi i ll am se f ub er R o
lo y y k kH ub S
an on
g se
a K K a a an
f ge N ai
Ns M M N eor
iA
w
Bw
G nz
a
ug
M

From the bar graph shown, it can be deduced that Bwaise Roundabout receives most of the
traffic in the evening. The following bar graph shows the zones that contribute traffic to
Bwaise Roundabout in the evening.

A BAR GRAPH SHOWING THE NUMBER OF VE-

HICLES ENTERING BWAISE ROUNDABOUT
FROM DIFFERENT ZONES IN THE EVENING

41 39 38 40
28 29 32 30
26 23 27

n 2 ht d d Ln 0t
Jc ad
ad le
ft R R pi
pa d
2 Rd ou
Rd Ro rig bi bi da Ki R a Ab
do Ro Rd Rd su ad bi rw
lo do ll am Ka re d
a on Hi i ll ub rw am ge un
Ns a dd
don a k kH an
f
S se f ub on R o
ad M a an se
Ky M N ge Aw ai
Ky or N
zi
G e
an Bw
ug
M

From the bar graph, it can be deduced that Nsalo Road Junction is the biggest contributor of
traffic to Bwaise Roundabout. The following figures are pie charts depicting the proportions
of vehicles travelling in the evening and the purposes for which they travel respectively.

51
 A PIE CHART SHOWING THE PROPORTIONS OF
VEHICLE TYPES USING THE ROAD IN THE
EVENING

BUSES TRUCKS
3% 2%

SALOON CARS
MINIBUSES (TAXIS) 35%
15%

MOTORBIKES
45%

SALOON CARS MOTORBIKES MINIBUSES (TAXIS) BUSES TRUCKS

The proportions of vehicles using the road in the evening do not differ much from those of
the morning. We see that there are more motorbikes and taxis and less saloon cars, buses and
trucks. This reflects a higher demand for public transport in the evening than in the morning.

A PIE CHART SHOWING THE DIFFERENT TRIP

PURPOSES OF VEHICLES IN THE EVENING
Work
Others 3%
11%

Education
2%

Home
39%
Social/Recreation
35%

Shopping
10%
Work Education Social/Recreation
Shopping Home Others

As is expected, we notice that most people go home in the evening, very few travel for
educational purposes.

52
4.5 Discussion of Results
4.5.1 Impact of the BRT on passenger travel time
Assuming a BRT bus loads passsengers for 2 minutes at Nsalo Road Junction and
experiences delays of 60 seconds at two stations along the way, the total travel time would
then be 10 minutes, 15 seconds.

As earlier noted, the highest travel time for a taxi along this road was 30 minutes. The
expected maximum travel duration for a BRT bus is 10 minutes, 15 seconds - a reduction of
19 minutes, 45 seconds. This represents a 63% decrease in travel time, which is reasonable.

Note that the BRT travel times do not take into account possible travel time impacts related to
factors such as weather, road construction and traffic incident impacts.

The median busway alignment configuration was chosen because it would separate bus traffic
from general vehicular traffic, and thus provide more reliable bus travel times. In conclusion,
the BRT will reduce travel time significantly.

4.5.2 Cost of project implementation, quantification of benefits and comparison with

cost
The cost-benefit ratio was calculated as 0.1, making the project not feasible in terms of cost.
The benefits are not sufficient to make up for the costs involved in constructing and
maintaining the BRT system.

4.5.3 Origin-Destination patterns

The general observation about vehicle movements along Sir Apollo Road is that in the
morning, most vehicles wish to access the city centre via Makerere Hill Road, Bwaise
Roundabout and Kyaddondo Road 2. Most of these movements are by bodabodas, saloon
cars or sedans and minibuses (taxis).

In the evening peak period, we see that most people are coming from the city centre and
going to their places of residence. These people wish to access their evening destinations via
Bwaise Roundabout, Makerere Hill Road, Kasubi Road and Makerere Hill Road (Nakulabye
side). We still note that there is a high demand for public transport during this period.

53
In conclusion, a BRT link is necessary between Nsalo Road Junction and Bwaise Roundabout
to reduce congestion during the peak periods and thus help public transport users move faster
to their destinations in the morning and evening – as we have already noted that the BRT lane
is capable of reducing travel time.

54
 5.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1 Conclusions
The travel time analysis shows that the BRT can reduce travel time significantly. The project
is thus feasible in terms of travel time. However, there are many establishments in the road
reserve, including part of Makerere University. Implementing such a system would be a very
expensive venture. In fact, the cost of ROW acquisition takes the biggest proportion of
implementation costs. The value of benefits to be gained is much less than the cost of
implementation, making the project not feasible in terms of cost.

The origin-destination patterns indicate that introducing the BRT link between Nsalo Road
and Bwaise Roundabout is practical, as there are many public transport vehicles using this
route during the peak periods which results in congestion. Generally, the project is not
feasible, as the cost-benefit analysis holds the most importance in determining feasibility.

5.2 Recommendations
More research needs to be done to supplement this study. This report investigates only three
parameters but lacks other important ones like an EIA, legal feasibility, time feasibility,
location of the bus depot, and others.

The government should explore the possibility of installing such a system in Kampala City
because it has worked for neighbouring countries like Tanzania. The government should
provide an inventory of traffic-related data to make work easier for researchers and for them
to make more accurate analyses.

The design of the BRT stations, including the facilities for quick boarding and exits, should
be investigated. Consensus-building must be considered. The participation of citizens, the
private sector and the public sectors are likely to be critical when promoting the introduction
of BRT.

In case such a project is executed, a kerb line should be put in place to prevent other vehicles
like bodabodas from accessing the BRT lane in case it is implemented. Traffic laws should be
created to prevent other vehicles from using the segregated lane. BRT buses should be given

55
major priority at the signalised junction since that was not catered for in our simulation. The
vegetation (trees) should be re-planted after construction to conserve the eco-system.

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Jordan, Jordan: International Knowledge sharing platform.

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Ang-Olson, J. & Mahendra, A., 2011. Cost/Benefit Analysis of Converting a Lane for Bus
Rapid Transit-Phase II Evaluation and Methodology. Research Results Digest.

Anon., s.d. BRT brochure. s.l.:U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Transit

Administration.

Anon., s.d. Madison BRT Transit Corridor Study: Proposed BRT Travel Time Estimation
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Chin, H. C. & Rahman, M. H., 2011. An Impact Evaluation of Traffic Congestion on

Ecology. Planning Studies & Practice, pp. 32-24.

D'Souza, D. N. & Amar, S. M., 2011. BRTS-Bus Rapid Transit System-Feasibility Analysis
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56
Frieslaar, A., 2018. BRT Planning 401: An Introduction to Infrasturcture Design for BRT.
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Harnisch, J. et al., 2006. Chapter 3: Mobile Combustion. Dans: 2006 IPCC Guidelines for
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Harsh, M., 2015. Slideshare: A Scribd company. [En ligne]

Available at: https://www.slideshare.net/kezangkl11/orgin-destination-survey
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Integrated Transport Planning Ltd., 2010. Pre-feasibility studies for the development of a
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Kato, H., Inagi, A., Saito, N. & Htun, P. T. T., 2011. Feasibility analysis for the introduction
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Kittelson and Associates, I. H. S. L. T. C. a. D., 2007. TCRP Report 18: Bus Rapid Transit
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 7.0 APPENDIX

7.1.1 Appendix A: Field forms used during the travel time assessment

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7.2 Appendix B : Online questionnaire

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