Survivability

Vera Caylak, Dr. Engelbert Waßmuth

Vittorio Veneto Italy

January, 2020
Contains confidential proprietary and trade secrets information of CNH Industrial. Any use of this work without express written consent is strictly prohibited.
Survivability
Agenda

 Definition of survivability

 Process chain of survivabilty

• GeFaMoS 3D
• UniVeMo

January, 2020 Survivability 2

Survivability
Mission under threat

combat = continuous & multiple threat

Protection

• STANAG 4569
 occupants

Effect

• mobility?
• communication?
• optics?
• sensors?
Survivability

January, 2020 Survivability 3

Survivability
All means against threats to
Holistic Protection – Understanding Interlinks preserve required capabilities

Protection

Indirect Protection Direct Protection

Tactics
Active Protection Passive Protection
Procedures
Threat Detection Stealth
Reconnaisence IR LO
Jamming
Camouflage
Awareness Chaff, Flares
Smoke Armour
Network

Threat Suppression Damage Tolerance

System of Systems
Threat Destruction
…

Lethality “attack is the best form of defence”

of own weapons

January, 2020 Survivability 4

Survivability
Survivability onion

Susceptibility
Vulnerability

Avoid
threat Avoid
detection Avoid
hit Avoid
penetration Avoid
kill

January, 2020 Survivability 5

Survivability
Survivability onion

Susceptibility
Vulnerability

January, 2020 Survivability 6

Survivability
Survivability PS

 Survivability PS = 1 - weapon effectiveness

• ... is the ability of a system and its occupants to avoid or resist a threat without
diminishing those qualities which cause the abandonment of the assigned task.
• High survivability results from the combination of low susceptibility, low vulnerability
and high recoverability.
 Detect & Hit ~ Susceptibility (PH)
• ... are weaknesses in the use and construction of the system that lead to the system
or its occupants being exposed to weapon effects.
 Effect on target ~ Vulnerability (PK/H)
• ... are weaknesses in the construction of the system, which cause degradation of the
system or injury of its occupants IF exposed to weapon effects.
 Recoverability
• ... is the ability of a system to reconfigure or repair damaged components to restore
lost or degraded capabilities to an extent required for a task.

 H = Hit
K = Kill
K/H = conditional probability of event K given event H

January, 2020 Survivability 7

Survivability
Susceptibility PH Detect & Hit ~ Susceptibility (PH)
... are weaknesses in the use and construction of the system that lead to
the system or its occupants being exposed to weapon effects.

 Target recognition (Detection, Identification, Tracking)

• sensors, signatures (camouflage and deception), environment
 Hit (ammunition within range of the interaction)
• system error, environment, dynamic (stopped/moving)

January, 2020 Survivability 8

Survivability
Susceptibility PH

 Weaknesses in the use and setup of the system which lead to the system or its
occupants being exposed to weapon effects

 Turkish Leopard 2A4, Syria, 2016

• ATGM
• Use of system
• Static use
• Side, back, vehicle hull exposed

• System structure
• No active protection system

January, 2020 Survivability 9

 Survivability
Vulnerability PK/H

 Weaknesses in the setup of the system lead to degradations of the system or

injuries of the occupants if it‘s exposed to weapon effects

 Turkish Leopard 2A4, Syria, 2016

• System structure
• No reactive armour
• Ammunition in turret:
Pressure plate &
Blow-Off Panel
• Ammunition inside vehicle hull:
crew compartment

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-WY2fHNJMKiA/WIMS2ODnpPI/AAAAAAAAP6c/Q2gYGcX-BmEidYR6eNpmGIXoD8C7noIMgCEw/s1600/31714_original.jpg

January, 2020 Survivability 10

Survivability
Reduction of vulnerability

 Armour
hardening of components

mass
 Redundancy & segregation

 Position of components

 Minimization of components

January, 2020 Survivability 11

Survivability
Example: T-14 Armata

 Armour: active, reactive / passive at front / side

 Set-up of the components:
ammunition is separated from the crew compartment
 Minimization of components: unmanned turret

January, 2020 Survivability 12

Survivability
Staggered protection

Soft Kill
• RF (Chaff, Jammer. HPM) Hard-Kill
• IR (Flare, DIRCM) • Blast
• VIS (Smoke) • Cutting charge
• Multispectral • Fragments
• Projectiles

Camouflage &
deception
• VIS Reactive armour
• IR (ADAPTIVE) • ERA
• Decoys • NERA
Passive armour
• Statistical protection
• Composite-Technologies
• RHA

January, 2020 Survivability 13

Survivability
Subconcept Protection (2006)
Measures & resources towards threats to maintain the ability to act and the operational capability

Protection
Survivability
Indirect protection Indirect protection

Procedure

Planning
Active protection Passive protection

Organisation Prevention of reconnaissance

How can a threat be detected?
Prevention of identification
How to respond to the threat?
Prevention of target perception

Is it possible to combat the threat or Prevention of the hit

should it be suppressed?
Prevention of the effect
„Attack is the best defense“
Effect chain
Effect on target • Armor
• Tempering of components
Armor
Panzerungis a part of the
ist ein 5th outline
Teilaspekt derlevel
5. Gliederungsebene • Redundancy &
ItSteht
is always in the foreground
bei Landfahrzeugen with
stets imland vehicles
Vordergrund Segregation
• Position of components
• Personenschutz
Personal protection
• Minimization of
• Überprüfbarkeit
Verifiability (STANAG
(STANAG 4569)
4569) components

January, 2020 Survivability 14

Survivability
Effect chain

Hit

Opposite of

Evaluation of the effect on target? Vulnerability models!

January, 2020 Survivability 15

Survivability
Agenda

 Definition of survivability

 Process chain of survivabilty

• GeFaMoS 3D
• UniVeMo

January, 2020 Survivability 16

Process chain of survivability

bdd [package] MGCS [Rhombus_Systemmodell]

RHOMBUS - Systemmodell - Schutzkonzept Legend

Verifikationsmodell GeFaMoS 3D Gesamtsystem (ein Fahrzeug)

Fähigkeit Survivability
Fähigkeit: SURVIVABILITY (SUR) Schutzbereich Außenstruktur

 High Level Requirements

Schutzbereich Innenstruktur
Definierter Schutzbereich

«block»
Rhombus-System «block»
SUR
- NodeType: char = root
- NodeType: char = OR
properties
: SUR properties
: Schutz_Aussen

• Relevant requirements about the system HLR -

-
-

«block»
SB_DachLinks
«block»
SB_Dach

CADFile: char = SB_Dach

vector = 0.00;0.00;1.00

CADFile: char = SB_DachLinks

«block»
Schutz_Aussen
-
-
«block»
SB_SeiteLinks

CADFile: char = SB_SeiteLinks

vector = 0.00;1.00;0.00

-
«block»
SB_SeiteRechts

CADFile: char = SB_SeiteRechts

 System-architecture
- vector = 0.00;0.71;0.71 - NodeType: char = OR - vector = 0.00;-1.00;0.00
properties
: SB_Boden
«block» : SB_BodenLinks «block»
SB_DachRechts SB_Boden
: SB_BodenRechts
: SB_Dach - CADFile: char = SB_Boden
- CADFile: char = SB_DachRechts
: SB_DachLinks - vector = 0.00;0.00;-1.00
- vector = 0.00;-0.71;0.71
: SB_DachRechts
: SB_Hinten
: SB_SeiteLinks
«block» «block»
: SB_SeiteRechts
SB_Hinten SB_BodenLinks
: SB_Vorne
- CADFile: char = SB_Hinten - CADFile: char = SB_BodenLinks
- vector = -1.00;0.00;0.00 - vector: int = 0.00;0.71;-0.71

 CAD-model of the system

«block» «block»
SB_Vorne SB_BodenRechts
- CADFile: char = SB_Vorne - CADFile: char = SB_BodenRechts
- vector = 1.00;0.00;0.00 - vector: int = 0.00;-0.71;-0.71

• skills C4I, EFF, MOB, SDRI, SUR SysML

 Analysis of Protection and Mass
• CAD-Modell → GeFaMoS
• Fast calculation with variation of the CAD
technologies
• GeFaMoS → CAD
 Analysis of Vulnerability
GeFaMoS
• CAD with necessary informations
• SysML → UniVeMo-faulttree
• Component failure
UniVeMo
• Scenarios/ plan of shots

January, 2020 Survivability

Survivability
Agenda

 Definition of survivability

 Process chain of survivabilty

• GeFaMoS 3D
• UniVeMo

January, 2020 Survivability 18

GeFaMoS 3D
Workflow in GeFaMoS

January, 2020 Survivability 19

GeFaMoS 3D

bdd [package] MGCS [Rhombus_Systemmodell]

RHOMBUS - Systemmodell - Schutzkonzept Legend

 ROMBUS ZELLE Verifikationsmodell GeFaMoS 3D Gesamtsystem (ein Fahrzeug)

Fähigkeit Survivability
Fähigkeit: SURVIVABILITY (SUR) Schutzbereich Außenstruktur
Schutzbereich Innenstruktur
Definierter Schutzbereich

«block»
Rhombus-System «block»
SUR
- NodeType: char = root
- NodeType: char = OR
properties
: SUR properties
: Schutz_Aussen

«block» «block»

CAD-model System Architecture

SB_Dach SB_SeiteLinks

- CADFile: char = SB_Dach - CADFile: char = SB_SeiteLinks

- vector = 0.00;0.00;1.00 - vector = 0.00;1.00;0.00

«block»
«block»
SB_DachLinks «block» SB_SeiteRechts
Schutz_Aussen
- CADFile: char = SB_DachLinks - CADFile: char = SB_SeiteRechts
- vector = 0.00;0.71;0.71 - NodeType: char = OR - vector = 0.00;-1.00;0.00
properties
: SB_Boden
«block» : SB_BodenLinks «block»
SB_DachRechts SB_Boden
: SB_BodenRechts
: SB_Dach - CADFile: char = SB_Boden
- CADFile: char = SB_DachRechts
: SB_DachLinks - vector = 0.00;0.00;-1.00
- vector = 0.00;-0.71;0.71
: SB_DachRechts
: SB_Hinten
: SB_SeiteLinks
«block» «block»
: SB_SeiteRechts
SB_Hinten SB_BodenLinks
: SB_Vorne
- CADFile: char = SB_Hinten - CADFile: char = SB_BodenLinks
- vector = -1.00;0.00;0.00 - vector: int = 0.00;0.71;-0.71

«block» «block»
SB_Vorne SB_BodenRechts
- CADFile: char = SB_Vorne - CADFile: char = SB_BodenRechts
- vector = 1.00;0.00;0.00 - vector: int = 0.00;-0.71;-0.71

January, 2020 Survivability 20

Survivability
Agenda

 Definition of survivability

 Process chain of survivabilty

• GeFaMoS 3D
• UniVeMo

January, 2020 Survivability 21

Survivability
UniVeMo

 Universal Vulnerability Model

 Developed on behalf of BAAINBw K1.2
• National standard for evaluating the effect on target
• International accepted methods Different programmes for
• Independent from manufacturer various combinations of
effector and target
• Fast
Unification
• Quantitative
System simulations
• Continuous development
 Evaluation of the residual skills of a target hit according to functional aspects
• Vulnerability of own systems
against foreign weapons
Finite Element Methods
• Effectiveness of own weapons Numerical engineering models
against foreign systems
Analytical models

Experts Opinion Duration

immediately seconds minutes hours days

January, 2020 Survivability 22

Survivability
UniVeMo effector Model

 Kinetic Energy Penetrator (KE)

Armor Piercing Discarding
Sabot Fin Stabilized (APDSFS)

 Shaped Charge (SC)

Chemical Energy (CE)
Explosively Formed Projectile (EFP)

 High Explosive Fragmentation (HE/F)

 Frangible Armor Piercing (FAP)

Penetrator with Enhanced Lateral Effect (PELE)

 Direct-Hit with Kill-Vehicle (KV)

e.g. for Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD)

January, 2020 Survivability 23

Survivability
UniVeMo target model

 Air
• Fixed and rotary wing aircraft
• Manned and unmanned
• Rockets, artillery and mortar ammunition
• TBM
 Land
• Wheeled and tracked
• SUV – battle tanks
• Air defence
 Marine
• Rigid Hull Inflatable Boat
• Patrol Boat
• Frigate (in preparation)
 Buildings
• Bunkers and shelters
• Critical infrastructure
• Industrial plants

January, 2020 Survivability 24

Survivability
Vulnerability analysis

ammunition model
target model
physical effects (esp. penetration)
geometry, material,
functional components,
system logic

encounter

target specific knowledge

design analysis, FEM, tests

independence effect/target secondary damages

component failure battle damage repair

system failure

independent from the tool

quantitative evaluation Pk/h

January, 2020 Survivability 25

Survivability
VV&A

 Verify: Is the model developed correctly?

• implementation <-> specification

 Validate: Is the correct model developed?

• simulation <-> tests
• difficult at the overall system level

 Accrediting: May the model be used?

• contractor <-> customer

relative frequency
singular test
result

unknown distribution of test distribution of

results simulations results

residual velocity
January, 2020 Survivability
Survivability
Target modelling – detail of fault tree

January, 2020 Survivability

Survivability
Vulnerability of concepts

parameterized idea / concept UniVeMo

compartment-model component-model

components
functional space
= functional area
= compartments

components

compartment-hull /
chassis

compartments

January, 2020 Survivability

Survivability
Analysis of shot line

projectile / single fragment distribution of fragments

 effect  hit

January, 2020 Survivability

Survivability
Primary damages

© RHAMM

 penetration
• projectile
• shaped charge / EFP
• fragments
 direct hit due to launcher system
 shock/pressure
• ballistic shock © RHAMM

• blast
• hydraulic ram
• overpressure inside

January, 2020 Survivability

Survivability
Behind Armor Debris (BAD)

 Secondary fragments inside the compartment

• generated at the back side of (thick) structures
• fragments of the penetrator (KE / CE / EFP)
• liner reduces velocity and cone angle

January, 2020 Survivability

Survivability
Behind Armor Debris (BAD) for UniVeMo

penetrator residual penetrator

penetrator fragments

ring fragments

target fragments

January, 2020 Survivability

Survivability
BAD comparison APFSDS

500 x 500 x 70 mm RHA 200 BNH

0°NATO - averaged values from 3 shots
total number of fragments 32,67
total fragment mass 0,0186 kg
maximum fragment velocity 1320,32 m/s
fragment angle spread 28,96 °
max. fragment energy 2798,87 J

Witness Plate
2000 x 2000 x 0.5 mm RHA 200 BNH

500 x 500 x 35 mm RHA 200 BNH

60°NATO - averaged values from 3 shots
total number of fragments 32,33
total fragment mass 0,0468 kg
maximum fragment velocity 1569,84 m/s
fragment angle spread 72,67 °
max. fragment energy 9882,15 J

January, 2020 Survivability

Survivability
BAD comparison CE

500 x 500 x 70 mm RHA 200 BNH

0°NATO - averaged values from 3 shots
total number of fragments 10,33
total fragment mass 0,0268 kg
maximum fragment velocity 489,20 m/s
fragment angle spread 43,05 °
max. fragment energy 355,95 J

Witness Plate
2000 x 2000 x 0.5 mm RHA 200 BNH

500 x 500 x 35 mm RHA 200 BNH

60°NATO - averaged values from 3 shots
total number of fragments 20,67
total fragment mass 0,0371 kg
maximum fragment velocity 498,54 m/s
fragment angle spread 86,57 °
max. fragment energy 548,29 J

January, 2020 Survivability

Survivability
ERA-modell in UniVeMo

 Generic
Tandem SC

without ERA with ERA

January, 2020 Survivability

Survivability
Personnel vulnerability analysis
4,6 mm DM11 (HK)

9 mm DM51(WK)
 S&K considers protection from Absorber
clothing and helmet, not from a vest SK1
Fibers
 Vest protection: Challenging SK4

• Fibers ≠ solid bulk material Ceramics

• Hardness of ceramics >> metals

• Material and shape of threat are important ■ Not protected:
but rarely can be described by simple laws ■ Winter clothing
 Ballistic limit not known for all projectiles ■ Helmet

 S&K applied on basis of ■ Protected:

• residual velocity and ■ Winter clothing
■ Helmet
• residual mass behind vest ■ Vest
(assuming that any jacket is stripped off)

January, 2020 Survivability

Survivability
VeMo-S

 Bio-mechanical failures, depending on mission (~ fault tree)

 243 components
• Tissues
• Bones
• Organs
• Blood vessels
• Nerves
 Wound channels of different projectiles from ballistic soap
 Intersections of voxels  numerical effort
 Component failure functions
• Momentum
• Energy or energy density
• Cross section area or volume
• Blood loss
 Integrated with UniVeMo (IABG is a member of the user group)

January, 2020 Survivability

Survivability
Fault trees

 Holistic evaluation of the system

 Meaning of component failure at system level
• Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA)
• ~ Safety analysis, but external causes instead of Mean Time Between Failure
(MTBF)
 Quantitative statements with probability values

January, 2020 Survivability

 Example – Single Shot Kill Probability vs. Range
FIREPOWER kill  APFSDS: Azimuth -30°; Range = 1000 m

𝑷𝒉 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎𝐦
𝑷𝒌𝒉 (𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐬)

8
7 7,1251
6,5174
6 6,0709
SSKP [%]

5
4
3 𝑷𝒌 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎𝐦 = 𝐏𝐡 ∗ 𝐏𝐤𝐡
2 2,2643
1,5253
1
0
0 500 1000 1500
Range [m]

January, 2020 Survivability 39

Survivability
Summary

 Definition of survivability bdd [package] MGCS [Rhombus_Systemmodell]

RHOMBUS - Systemmodell - Schutzkonzept Legend

Verifikationsmodell GeFaMoS 3D Gesamtsystem (ein Fahrzeug)

Fähigkeit Survivability
Fähigkeit: SURVIVABILITY (SUR) Schutzbereich Außenstruktur
Schutzbereich Innenstruktur
Definierter Schutzbereich

«block»
Rhombus-System «block»
SUR
- NodeType: char = root
- NodeType: char = OR
properties
: SUR properties
: Schutz_Aussen

HLR
«block» «block»
SB_Dach SB_SeiteLinks

- CADFile: char = SB_Dach - CADFile: char = SB_SeiteLinks

 Process chain of survivabilty

- vector = 0.00;0.00;1.00 - vector = 0.00;1.00;0.00

«block»
«block»
SB_DachLinks «block» SB_SeiteRechts
Schutz_Aussen
- CADFile: char = SB_DachLinks - CADFile: char = SB_SeiteRechts
- vector = 0.00;0.71;0.71 - NodeType: char = OR - vector = 0.00;-1.00;0.00
properties
: SB_Boden
«block» : SB_BodenLinks «block»
SB_DachRechts SB_Boden
: SB_BodenRechts
: SB_Dach - CADFile: char = SB_Boden
- CADFile: char = SB_DachRechts
: SB_DachLinks - vector = 0.00;0.00;-1.00
- vector = 0.00;-0.71;0.71
: SB_DachRechts
: SB_Hinten
: SB_SeiteLinks
«block» «block»
: SB_SeiteRechts
SB_Hinten SB_BodenLinks
: SB_Vorne
- CADFile: char = SB_Hinten - CADFile: char = SB_BodenLinks
- vector = -1.00;0.00;0.00 - vector: int = 0.00;0.71;-0.71

• GeFaMoS 3D
«block» «block»
SB_Vorne SB_BodenRechts
- CADFile: char = SB_Vorne - CADFile: char = SB_BodenRechts
- vector = 1.00;0.00;0.00 - vector: int = 0.00;-0.71;-0.71

SysML
• UniVeMo
CAD
GeFaMoS
 Practical Examples UniVeMo

January, 2020 Survivability 40

Any Questions?

January, 2020 Survivability 41