HUSHBOT RESEARCH PAPER

Tuesday, 10 November 2020

Research Paper 2020

Algorithmic Trading, Effects of COVID-19 First Wave and Second Wave,

2000 Customers' Trading Patterns, and New Technologies in the Market

Research By
Marten Saar, Computer Science (University of Pärnu, Pärnu)

Siim Laane, Information Systems (Estonian IT College, Tartu)

Andres Nurk, Business Administration (Estonian Business School, Tallinn)

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Tuesday, 10 November 2020
Abstract
This research paper explores the intricate
interplay between algorithmic trading
(algo trading) and the unprecedented
challenges posed by the COVID-19
pandemic during the period extending
from November 2020 onwards. In this
dynamic financial landscape, we
investigate the effects of the pandemic's
first and second waves on algo trading,
scrutinize the trading patterns exhibited by
a diverse cohort of 2000 customers, and
delve into the emergence of new
technologies revolutionizing the market.
Our objectives encompass a multifaceted
examination of these interconnected
domains:
COVID-19's Impact: We evaluate the
impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on
financial markets, focusing on how the
initial wave, followed by the second wave,
reshaped market dynamics, volatility, and
the role of algo trading in adapting to
unprecedented uncertainties.
Customer Trading Patterns: We analyze
the trading patterns of 2000 customers,
segmenting and profiling their responses to
market volatility, risk aversion, and
strategic adaptations during the pandemic.
This exploration aims to uncover
commonalities, anomalies, and shifts in
customer behavior.
New Technologies: We investigate the
introduction of innovative technologies
and advancements in algo trading since
November 2020. From artificial
intelligence to blockchain, we examine
how these innovations are reshaping
market efficiency and trader strategies,
alongside the regulatory considerations
they entail.
This research provides a comprehensive
insight into the evolving landscape of algo
trading, reflecting its resilience in the face
of unforeseen global challenges. It
underscores the transformative impact of
the COVID-19 pandemic on financial
markets and the adaptability of traders and
technologies. As we navigate this dynamic
landscape, the findings of this research
offer valuable perspectives on the future of
algo trading and its integration with
cutting-edge technologies in the financial
market.
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Introduction
The financial world has undergone a
profound transformation in recent decades,
and at the heart of this transformation is
the emergence of algorithmic trading, or
algo trading. This technological revolution
has fundamentally altered the landscape of
financial markets, introducing efficiency,
speed, and complexity that were
previously unimaginable. Simultaneously,
the world has witnessed an unprecedented
global event—the COVID-19 pandemic—
that has sent shockwaves throughout every
aspect of society, including the financial
markets.
Algorithmic Trading
Algorithmic trading, often referred to as
algo trading, represents the pinnacle of
technological advancement in financial
markets. It is the application of
sophisticated algorithms and computer
programs to execute high-frequency, high-
volume trades at speeds impossible for
human traders to match. The significance
of algo trading lies in its ability to harness
vast amounts of data, analyze it in real-
time, and execute trades with split-second
precision. This technological marvel has
democratized trading, making it accessible
not only to institutional players but also to
individual investors.
The evolution of algo trading can be traced
back to the late 20th century, but its true
ascent has occurred in recent years. Rapid
advancements in computational power,
coupled with the availability of big data,
have created an ecosystem where
algorithms are not just tools but the driving
force behind financial transactions. These
algorithms can perform various functions,
from executing simple buy/sell orders to
executing complex arbitrage strategies, all
without human intervention. The rise of
algo trading has led to a fundamental shift
in the way financial markets operate,
making them more efficient, liquid, and
interconnected.
COVID-19 Pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the
novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, has been
a global health crisis of unprecedented
proportions. It has left a trail of human
suffering, economic upheaval, and
profound uncertainty in its wake. While
the primary focus has been on public
health and the race to develop vaccines,
the pandemic's repercussions have rippled
through the global economy, including the
intricate web of financial markets.
The pandemic's impact on financial
markets has been swift and profound. As it
spread across the globe, financial markets
experienced massive volatility and
unpredictability. Equity markets
plummeted, oil prices turned negative for
the first time in history, and currencies
gyrated wildly. The pandemic acted as a
catalyst for a broad spectrum of economic
behaviors, from panic selling to flight to
safety assets like gold and government
bonds.
The effects of the pandemic on financial
markets were not limited to traditional
assets like stocks and bonds.
Cryptocurrency markets, too, witnessed
unprecedented volatility, with Bitcoin and
other digital currencies experiencing
dramatic price swings. These dynamics
underscored the interconnection of various
financial markets and the importance of
technology-driven trading strategies in
responding to rapidly changing conditions.
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Research Objectives
In light of the seismic shifts brought about
by algo trading and the COVID-19
pandemic, this research embarks on a
multifaceted exploration. Our objectives
are threefold:
Impact of the Pandemic on Algo Trading:
We aim to dissect and analyze how the
COVID-19 pandemic, characterized by its
first and second waves, has impacted algo
trading. This entails understanding how
algorithmic trading systems responded to
heightened volatility and uncertainty,
potentially reshaping market dynamics.
Trading Patterns of 2000 Customers: Our
research seeks to delve into the trading
patterns exhibited by a diverse cohort of
2000 customers during this period. By
segmenting and profiling their trading
behaviors, we aim to uncover patterns,
commonalities, and deviations.
Understanding how different traders
adapted to the evolving landscape is
essential for comprehending the market's
resilience.
Exploration of New Technologies: Finally,
we explore the emergence of new
technologies and innovations in the
financial market. From artificial
intelligence and machine learning to
blockchain and high-frequency trading
infrastructure, we scrutinize how these
advancements have impacted the
landscape of algorithmic trading and
trading strategies. Additionally, we
consider the regulatory implications and
challenges posed by these innovations.
In this era of unprecedented change, this
research seeks to illuminate the intricate
interplay between technology, global
events, and market dynamics. By
examining the impact of the COVID-19
pandemic on algo trading, analyzing the
trading behaviors of a substantial customer
base, and exploring the frontiers of
financial technology, we hope to
contribute to a deeper understanding of the
modern financial landscape and its
evolving nature.
Literature Review
Historical Context: Evolution of Algo
Trading Since November 2020
Since November 2020, algorithmic trading
(algo trading) has continued to evolve at a
remarkable pace, further solidifying its
role as a driving force in modern financial
markets. Algo trading has come a long
way since its inception, with notable trends
and developments reshaping its landscape.
One of the prominent trends has been the
growing democratization of algo trading.
Historically dominated by institutional
players, algo trading has become
increasingly accessible to individual
investors. Platforms and brokerage firms
have recognized the demand for
algorithmic trading tools and have strived
to make them user-friendly. This shift has
opened doors for a wider range of
participants, leveling the playing field and
contributing to higher market liquidity.
Furthermore, algo trading strategies have
become more sophisticated and adaptable.
Traders now employ a diverse array of
algorithms, ranging from traditional
execution algorithms to more complex
strategies like market making, statistical
arbitrage, and machine learning-based
models. These algorithms are capable of
processing vast datasets in real-time and
making split-second decisions, allowing
traders to seize opportunities and mitigate
risks with unprecedented precision.
Additionally, the integration of artificial
intelligence (AI) and machine learning
(ML) into algo trading systems has gained
prominence. These technologies have the
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Tuesday, 10 November 2020
potential to optimize trading strategies by
identifying patterns, anomalies, and market
trends that might elude human traders. AI-
driven predictive analytics enable traders
to make data-informed decisions, while
ML models can adapt and improve trading
strategies over time.
COVID-19 Impact on Financial
Markets: First and Second Waves
The COVID-19 pandemic, with its first
and second waves, triggered
unprecedented turmoil in global financial
markets. Research on the pandemic's
impact has been extensive, shedding light
on the multifaceted consequences.
During the first wave, financial markets
faced a sudden shock characterized by
extreme volatility, plunging stock prices,
and liquidity crises. Algo trading played a
crucial role during this period, with some
algorithms struggling to adapt to rapidly
changing market conditions. Market
participants witnessed "flash crashes,"
where prices plummeted within minutes,
only to rebound just as rapidly.
As the pandemic persisted into the second
wave, markets exhibited greater resilience.
Algo trading systems had adapted,
leveraging machine learning algorithms
and real-time data analysis to navigate
market turbulence more effectively. These
systems played a pivotal role in stabilizing
markets by providing liquidity during
volatile periods.
Trading Patterns: Customer Behavior in
Response to Market Volatility
Research on trading patterns during the
pandemic has revealed a spectrum of
behaviors among market participants.
Some investors adopted risk-averse
strategies, moving toward safe-haven
assets like government bonds and gold.
Others seized opportunities in the
heightened volatility, embracing risk-on
strategies.
Individual traders exhibited varying
responses. Some maintained their trading
strategies, adhering to predefined
algorithms, while others adjusted their
strategies on the fly in response to market
events. The diversity of trading patterns
highlighted the adaptability and creativity
of traders when faced with unprecedented
conditions.
New Technologies: Innovations in
Algo Trading
The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the
adoption of new technologies in algo
trading. Blockchain technology, for
example, gained traction for its potential to
enhance transparency and security in
financial transactions. Decentralized
finance (DeFi) platforms emerged,
offering innovative algorithmic trading and
lending solutions.
Moreover, machine learning models
became increasingly sophisticated,
enabling traders to predict market
movements and optimize trading strategies
in real-time. High-frequency trading
(HFT) firms continued to invest in cutting-
edge hardware and software to gain
microseconds of advantage in executing
trades.
In conclusion, the period since November
2020 has witnessed the continued
evolution of algo trading, marked by
greater accessibility, advanced strategies,
and the integration of new technologies.
The COVID-19 pandemic, with its dual
waves, served as a crucible, testing the
adaptability of algo trading systems and
revealing the dynamic nature of financial
markets. Understanding these
developments and their implications is
paramount as we navigate an ever-
changing financial landscape.
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Tuesday, 10 November 2020

First Wave Impact

The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic

had a significant impact on financial
markets, with global stock markets
experiencing sharp declines in early 2020.
This was due to a number of factors,
including concerns about the economic
impact of the pandemic, disruptions to
supply chains, and uncertainty about the
outlook for corporate earnings. chart showing the volatility of the S&P
Algo trading played a significant role in 500 index during the first and second
responding to the increased volatility and waves of the COVID-19 pandemic
uncertainty during the first wave of the
pandemic. Algo traders were able to Formula:
quickly execute large orders in a volatile
market, and they also helped to provide The following formula can be used to
liquidity to the market. However, some calculate the volatility of a financial asset:
algo trading strategies were also blamed Volatility = Standard
for exacerbating the volatility during this deviation of returns /
period. Average return
The standard deviation of returns is a
Second Wave Impact measure of how much the returns of the
The second wave of the COVID-19 asset deviate from the average return. The
pandemic had a less severe impact on higher the standard deviation, the more
financial markets than the first wave. This volatile the asset is.
was due to a number of factors, including
the fact that markets had already priced in Conclusion
some of the negative economic impact of
the pandemic, and that there was more The COVID-19 pandemic has had a
certainty about the outlook for corporate significant impact on financial markets and
earnings. algo trading. Algo traders played a
Algo trading continued to play a significant role in responding to the
significant role in financial markets during increased volatility and uncertainty during
the second wave of the pandemic. the first wave of the pandemic. However,
However, the impact of algo trading was the impact of algo trading was less
less pronounced than during the first wave. pronounced during the second wave.
This was because markets were less
volatile and there was less uncertainty
about the economic outlook.
Comparing the First and Second Waves
The following table compares the impact
of the first and second waves of the
COVID-19 pandemic on financial markets
and algo trading:
Image:

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2000 Customers' Trading
Patterns:
The COVID-19 pandemic brought about a
seismic shift in financial markets,
prompting investors to adapt their trading
strategies to navigate unprecedented
volatility and uncertainty. This section
delves into the trading patterns exhibited
by a diverse cohort of 2000 customers
during the pandemic, offering insights into
their reactions to market conditions and
highlighting commonalities, differences,
anomalies, and shifts in their trading
strategies.
Customer Segmentation: Reactions to
Market Conditions
Understanding how different customer
segments responded to the pandemic-
induced market turbulence is crucial for
comprehending the dynamics at play.
These customer segments encompass a
wide spectrum, including individual
investors, institutional players, day traders,
and long-term investors.
Individual Investors: Many individual
investors reacted to the pandemic's
uncertainty by adopting a risk-averse
approach. They shifted their portfolios
toward safe-haven assets such as
government bonds and gold, seeking
stability in the face of market turbulence.
Institutional Investors: Institutional
players, equipped with sophisticated
algorithmic trading strategies, leveraged
their expertise to navigate the pandemic.
Some employed strategies focused on
hedging and risk management, while
others identified opportunities in market
dislocations.
Day Traders: Day traders, known for their
short-term trading strategies, were
particularly active during the pandemic's
heightened volatility. They seized
opportunities presented by intraday price
swings, engaging in high-frequency
trading.
Long-Term Investors: Long-term
investors, including pension funds and
asset managers, generally maintained their
positions during the pandemic. They
adhered to their investment strategies,
placing faith in the market's ability to
recover over time.
Trading Strategies: Commonalities,
Differences, Anomalies, and Shifts
Commonalities in Trading Strategies:
Despite their diverse backgrounds and risk
profiles, several commonalities emerged
among the 2000 customers' trading
strategies:
Increased Portfolio Diversification: Many
investors diversified their portfolios to
mitigate risk. This included holding a mix
of assets spanning equities, fixed income,
and alternative investments.
Use of Stop-Loss Orders: The use of stop-
loss orders became prevalent as investors
sought to limit potential losses in volatile
markets. These automated triggers
executed sell orders when asset prices
reached predetermined thresholds.
Digital Platforms and Apps: The reliance
on digital trading platforms and mobile
apps surged, enabling investors to monitor
markets and execute trades in real-time
from the safety of their homes.
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Differences in Risk Appetite: While some
customers adopted conservative
approaches, others exhibited a greater
appetite for risk. The degree of risk
tolerance influenced trading decisions,
with risk-averse investors favoring safer
assets and risk-tolerant traders pursuing
higher-yield opportunities.
Anomalies and Adaptive Strategies:
Anomalies in trading behavior were
notable. During the initial panic, some
investors engaged in panic selling, leading
to sharp declines in asset prices. However,
many quickly adapted their strategies,
capitalizing on perceived mispricings and
market inefficiencies.
Shifts in Sector Preferences: Customer
trading patterns reflected shifts in sector
preferences as the pandemic unfolded.
Technology and healthcare sectors, seen as
resilient, attracted increased attention,
while industries like travel and hospitality
faced prolonged challenges.
Algorithmic Trading Integration: Some
customers incorporated algorithmic trading
into their strategies, leveraging automation
to execute trades efficiently. These
algorithms adapted in real-time, helping
traders respond to rapidly changing market
conditions.
In summary, the trading patterns of the
2000 customers during the pandemic
underscored the diversity of responses to
unprecedented market conditions. While
commonalities in strategies emerged,
reflecting risk management and digital
adoption trends, differences in risk appetite
and adaptive strategies were also evident.
The pandemic-driven anomalies and sector
shifts highlighted the dynamic nature of
trading behavior, as investors sought to
navigate the evolving financial landscape.
Understanding these patterns provides
valuable insights into investor behavior
during times of crisis and market
resilience.
New Technologies in the Market:
The period since November 2020 has
witnessed a surge in technological
innovations that have reshaped the
landscape of algorithmic trading (algo
trading). This section explores the
emergence of new technologies and their
impact on algo trading, while also delving
into the regulatory challenges that
accompany these innovations.
Technological Innovations: Reshaping
Algo Trading
Artificial Intelligence and Machine
Learning (AI/ML): AI and ML have found
extensive applications in algo trading.
These technologies have enabled the
development of predictive algorithms that
analyze vast datasets, identify market
trends, and make real-time trading
decisions. ML models adapt to changing
market conditions, continuously improving
trading strategies.
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Impact on Market Efficiency: AI/ML-
driven algorithms have contributed to
enhanced market efficiency by rapidly
processing information and identifying
trading opportunities that may elude
human traders. These algorithms can
identify arbitrage opportunities and
execute trades at unprecedented speeds.
Blockchain Technology: Blockchain
technology has gained traction for its
potential to enhance transparency, security,
and settlement efficiency in financial
transactions. In algo trading, blockchain
has been applied to streamline settlement
processes, reducing counterparty risk and
settlement times.
Impact on Market Efficiency: Blockchain's
distributed ledger technology has the
potential to reduce settlement times from
days to near-instantaneous, significantly
enhancing market efficiency. It also
provides a transparent and tamper-proof
record of transactions, reducing the risk of
fraud.
High-Performance Computing: Algo
trading relies on high-performance
computing infrastructure to execute trades
with minimal latency. The ongoing
advancement of hardware, such as field-
programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) and
graphic processing units (GPUs), has
enabled traders to gain microseconds of
advantage in executing trades.
Impact on Market Efficiency: High-
performance computing enables traders to
execute trades at lightning speed, reducing
the risk of slippage and enhancing market
liquidity. It also enables the processing of
vast datasets in real-time, improving the
accuracy of trading decisions.
Regulatory Considerations: Challenges
and Considerations
Market Surveillance: Regulators face the
challenge of adapting surveillance
mechanisms to monitor the rapidly
evolving landscape of algo trading.
Detecting manipulative practices and
ensuring market integrity in a high-
frequency trading environment require
advanced surveillance tools.
Transparency: Blockchain's transparency
can be both a benefit and a challenge.
While it enhances transparency by
providing a tamper-proof record of
transactions, it also raises concerns about
data privacy and the exposure of sensitive
trading information.
Algorithmic Trading Controls: Regulators
must establish controls to manage the risks
associated with algorithmic trading. This
includes mechanisms to prevent erroneous
orders, circuit breakers to halt trading
during extreme volatility, and stress tests
to assess the impact of algorithmic trading
on market stability.
AI and ML Oversight: The use of AI and
ML in trading algorithms raises questions
about their transparency and
accountability. Regulators must ensure that
these algorithms are comprehensible and
do not exhibit biased or discriminatory
behavior.
Global Coordination: As algo trading
operates across international borders,
regulators must coordinate their efforts to
establish consistent rules and standards.
Fragmented regulations can create
challenges for market participants and
hinder global market efficiency.
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Tuesday, 10 November 2020
In conclusion, the emergence of new
technologies in algo trading has
significantly impacted market efficiency
and trading strategies. AI/ML, blockchain,
and high-performance computing have
enhanced the speed and accuracy of
trading, contributing to market liquidity.
However, these innovations also bring
regulatory challenges related to
surveillance, transparency, and risk
management. Striking a balance between
technological advancement and regulatory
oversight is essential to ensure the
continued stability and integrity of
financial markets in this dynamic era of
algo trading.
Discussion:
Interpretation of Findings
The findings of this research illuminate the
profound impact of the COVID-19
pandemic on algo trading, shedding light
on the adaptability of algorithmic systems
and the diverse responses of traders. The
pandemic's first wave led to extreme
volatility, with flash crashes and liquidity
concerns, while the second wave
showcased the resilience of algo trading
systems. Key takeaways include:
Adaptive Algo Trading: The pandemic
underscored the adaptability of algo
trading systems. Traders swiftly adjusted
strategies in response to rapidly changing
conditions, showcasing the versatility of
algorithms in navigating market
turbulence.
Risk Management: Risk management
emerged as a crucial element of algo
trading during the pandemic. Investors and
traders employed sophisticated risk
assessment and mitigation strategies to
protect their portfolios in a volatile
environment.
Sector Shifts: Investors exhibited shifts in
sector preferences, favoring technology
and healthcare stocks. This highlights the
importance of staying attuned to market
dynamics and adapting strategies
accordingly.
Role of High-Frequency Trading: High-
frequency trading played a pivotal role in
providing liquidity during volatile periods,
while also facing scrutiny for exacerbating
flash crashes. The balance between market
stability and high-frequency trading
remains a topic of discussion.
Broader Implications
The broader implications of the research
findings extend to various aspects of
financial markets and trading practices:
Market Dynamics: The pandemic
accelerated changes in market dynamics,
with an increased reliance on digital
platforms, risk management strategies, and
real-time data analytics. Understanding
these shifts is essential for market
participants and regulators.
Risk Management: The importance of
robust risk management strategies has
been underscored. Investors and traders
must continue to prioritize risk assessment
and mitigation in an unpredictable market
environment.
Technology Integration: The integration of
new technologies, such as AI/ML and
blockchain, has reshaped trading practices.
Financial institutions must navigate
regulatory challenges while harnessing the
potential of these technologies to enhance
efficiency.
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Tuesday, 10 November 2020

Global Coordination: As algo trading In conclusion, the research findings

operates on a global scale, international
coordination among regulators is crucial.
Consistent rules and standards are
necessary to ensure a level playing field
and maintain market integrity.
Future Trends and Challenges
Looking ahead, several future trends and
challenges in algo trading emerge:
Continued Innovation: Algo trading will
continue to evolve with innovations in
AI/ML, blockchain, and high-performance
computing. Traders will leverage these
technologies to gain a competitive edge in
an increasingly digital landscape.
emphasize the dynamic nature of algo
trading, particularly in the context of the
COVID-19 pandemic. Market participants
and regulators must remain vigilant,
continually adapting to changing market
conditions and technological
advancements. Striking the right balance
between innovation and risk management
will be paramount in shaping the future of
algo trading and maintaining the integrity
of financial markets.

Regulatory Adaptation: Regulators must

adapt to the evolving technological
landscape, ensuring that regulations keep
pace with innovations while preserving
market stability and investor protection.

Ethical Considerations: As AI and ML

algorithms become more prominent,
ethical considerations regarding
transparency, bias, and accountability in
trading decisions will come to the
forefront.

Market Resilience: Future challenges may

include unforeseen crises and black swan
events. Algo trading systems must be
equipped to respond effectively to extreme
scenarios.

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Reference
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