Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis of Welded Shell Tanks

for Crude Oil Storage

ZdenČk Kala

Brno University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering,

Department of Structural Mechanics
VeveĜí St. 95, ZIP 602 00, Brno, CZECH REPUBLIC

Abstract. The article is aimed at the reliability and sensitivity analyses of the resistance of large circular cylindrical
storage tanks storing crude oil. The reliability was quantified on behalf of the Cornell reliability index. It is shown how
the Cornell reliability index is influenced by the tank shell thickness change. The sensitivity analysis of the reliability
function was elaborated. The results of experimental research were applied to numerical evaluation. It was shown that the
random variability of yield strength influenced the reliability in a dominant way. Reliability and sensitivity analyses were
elaborated by applying the Latin Hypercube Sampling method.
Keywords: Steel, Sensitivity, Structures, Reliability, Simulation, Random, Variance, Correlation.
PACS: 46.15.-x, 46.25.-y, 46.35.+z, 46.70.De, 81.40.Np

INTRODUCTION
An important characteristic of steel structures is the static resistance. The resistance is the capacity of a member
or component of a structure to withstand actions without mechanical failure, e.g. , tension resistance [1, 2], buckling
resistance [3, 4], and bending resistance [5-7]. The objective of this paper is the reliability analysis of large circular
cylindrical storage tanks storing crude oil. In the case of large circular cylindrical storage tanks, crude oil tension
causes longitudinal stress in the shell courses. The tank service is safe, if the tension longitudinal stress is lower than
yield strength with satisfactory probability. It can be remarked that yield strength need not be a dominant random
quantity for the resistance study, when stability problems are examined [8]. The stability can be the object of an
engineering analysis for empty shell circular cylindrical tanks loaded by wind, but it is not the research object of the
present paper. The principal factor determining the tank shell thickness is the internal loading due to the liquid head.
The reliability was quantified applying the Cornell reliability index [9]. The article builds on the probabilistic
reliability studies [10, 11].

RELIABILITY CONDITIONS OF CIRCULAR CYLINDRICAL TANKS

Let us consider a thin-walled circular cylindrical tank with height H, having internal radius r (distance from the
vertical axis of symmetry to the wall surface), and thin wall thickness t, see Fig. 1. Hydrostatic pressure p in depth h
is calculated as
p U ˜ g ˜h [Nm-2] (1)

where U is crude oil density at the temperature 20q (worldwide given values are 730 - 1000 kgm-3), g is
gravitational acceleration. In the depth h, uniform load f acts perpendicularly to the tank wall surface:

f U ˜ g ˜ h ˜ dh [Nm-1] (2)

In the depth h, the uniform load f evokes the internal force F which can be calculated as a reaction of a semi-
circular plane arc (half hoop) loaded by uniform load f, see Fig. 1.

F U ˜ g ˜ h ˜ r ˜ dh [N] (3)

Proceedings of the International Conference on Numerical Analysis and Applied Mathematics 2014 (ICNAAM-2014)
AIP Conf. Proc. 1648, 850023-1–850023-4; doi: 10.1063/1.4913078
© 2015 AIP Publishing LLC 978-0-7354-1287-3/$30.00

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 FIGURE 1. Loading of circular arc of circular cylindrical tank at depth h.

The internal force F evokes longitudinal stress in the direction of the tangent to the central line of the shell plate
of thickness t and height dh, where the central line has the shape of a circle lying in the plane perpendicular to the
axis x. For reliable operation, the force F must be less than or equal to the plate resistance R.

RF t0 [N] (4)

Resistance R can be calculated as:

R f y ˜ t ˜ dh [N] (5)

where fy is the yield strength. The reliability condition (4) can be rewritten taking into consideration (3) and (5) as

G f y ˜t  U ˜ g ˜ h ˜ r t 0 [Nm-1] (6)

The inequality (6) is the basic equation for the assessment of design reliability or service reliability of circular
cylindrical tanks of a series of standards, e.g., EEMUA 159 or API 653. Standardized approaches ensure reliability
primarily by considering conservative (safely low) values of yield strength.

RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF CIRCULAR CYLINDRICAL TANKS

Variables in equation (6) are considered as random during probabilistic reliability assessment. A failure occurs if
the inequality (6) is not satisfied. The reliability of all shell courses can be evaluated using the reliability index E
acc. to Cornell [9] which is defined as the reciprocity of the variation coefficient of the reliability reserve, and is
determined under the assumption of normality of the distribution of quantity G acc. to the relation:

PG
E (7)
VG

where PG is the mean value of G and VG is its standard deviation. The reliability index E related to failure
probability Pf by Pf=)(-E) where ) is the cumulative distribution function of the standardised Gauss distribution. Pf
and E are important characteristics for designers and building code developers [12, 13]. During its service, the tank
is exposed to the influence of environment which can cause reduction of tank shell thicknesses. Corrosion often
causes the reduction of shell plate thickness. The influence of change of tank shell plate thickness on security and
reliability of the tank can be studied on behalf of (7) under assumption that random quantities G, F, R have Gauss
probability density functions.
Let us study the influence of change of the nominal shell thickness t of thin-walled bottom course of the tank
shell on the value E (7). In (6), the depth h=22.3-0.3=22m (depth 0.3 m from the bottom). The spacing 0.3 m is
considered because the reliability condition (6) near the edge of the shell course (during change in plate thickness) is
inaccurate. The spacing value 0.3 m is considered to be in compliance with the standards EEMUA 159 and API 653.
Two input random values fy, t with Gauss probability density functions were considered. The yield strength fy was

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considered with mean value Pfy=393.5 MPa, and standard deviation Vfy=25.4 MPa [14]. Shell course (thin-wall)
thickness t was considered with mean value Pt=t, and standard deviation, Vt=0.04˜t [14]. The quantities fy a t are
statistically independent. The calculation of E (7) was carried out, applying 100 runs of Latin Hypercube Sampling
method [15, 16]. It can be added that the tank in service in the Czech Republic near the village of Nelahozeves has
the following parameters: Tank radius is 42.235 m, fill height is 22.3 m, tank height is 24.0 m. In Fig. 2, there are
presented the curves E vs t for the selected set of values U˜g˜h˜r. The full line shows the curve for
U˜g˜h˜r=  kNm-1; it corresponds to tank parameters U=  kgm-3, g=  ms-2,h =  m,r= 42.235 m. The
vertical red line represents the reliability index E of a real tank with parameters t=39mm,U  (730; 1000) kgm-3,
g=  ms-2,h =  m,r= 42.235 m. Analogously, the values of Efor other factors U, g, h, r, t can be read from
Fig. 2. E is evaluated by interpolation between the lines represented.

FIGURE 2. Diagrams E vs t for various values U˜g˜h˜r.

VARIANCE-BASED SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF TANK RELIABILITY

Information on problems and tasks of sensitivity analyses of steel structures is presented, e.g., in [17, 18]. In
general, the sensitivity analysis studies the relationships between information flowing in and out of the model [19].
The use of correlation coefficients is one of possible ways to perform the sensitivity analysis [4]. More complicated
problems can be studied using the variance-based sensitivity analysis [19]. One of the most coherent concepts of
variance-based sensitivity analysis enabling the analysis of the influence of arbitrary subgroups of input quantities
on the monitored output was worked out by [20]. As there are two random quantities, fy and t, with Gauss
probability density functions in (6), then the Sobol’s decomposition can be evaluated analytically. Sobol’s first order
sensitivity indices Sfy and St can be calculated as:

V E G fy P t2 ˜ V 2fy 645.16
S fy | 0.722 (8)
V G P 2fy ˜ V t2  P t2 ˜ V 2fy  V 2fy ˜ V t2 893.939856

V E Gt P 2fy ˜ V t2 247.7476
St | 0.277 (9)
V G P 2fy ˜ V t2  P t2 ˜V 2
fy V 2
fy ˜ V t2 893.939856

Sobol’s second order sensitivity index Sfy,t can be calculated as:

V E G f y ,t V 2fy ˜ V t2 1.032256
S fy ,t | 0.001 (10)
V G P 2fy ˜ V t2  P t2 ˜V 2
fy V 2
fy ˜ V t2 893.939856

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 CONCLUSION
A methodology of reliability calculation of welded tanks for crude oil storage was presented in the paper. The
reliability was analyzed using the reliability index Eapplying the numerical simulation Latin Hypercube Sampling.
It can be seen in Fig. 2, how the value ȕ decreases with decreasing value t. Decrease in thickness t is caused by
corrosion most frequently. For safe operation, it is necessary that E>Et, target value being Et standard value ensuring
the reliable service of tank. It has been calculated by the sensitivity analysis that the reliability variability is the most
dependent on variability of yield strength. The influence of shell thickness on reliability is only low. A very low
value of the Sobol’s second order sensitivity index Sfy,t proves that the influence of interactions between quantities fy
and t on tank reliability is negligible.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The article was elaborated within the framework of the project GAýR 14-17997S and VG20132015109.

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