Test of probability distribution calculating the relation of the amount

of different colored Skittles.

Introduction
The expected results of a phenomenon can be calculated to a percentage of analysis. This percentage is
calculated through the Chi-squared test, derived through observed results correlating with expected
2
values. The significant variables used for this test are 𝑥 , O (observed results), degrees of freedom, and E
(expected value). For this test a null hypothesis and a hypothesis have to be declared; a null hypothesis is
trying to be disproven. X squared can only be calculated through real numbers, meaning the variables O
and E can not be percentages or proportions. Alongside every qualitative
variable needs to be divided into a categorical variable with a subset of variables that can be manipulated
into other categories. The Observed values will be the count from the sample being tested, then the total
average of observed values is the expected variable. The processed data ( put onto a graph) also
2
2 2 (𝑂−𝐸)
includes (𝑂 − 𝐸) , this is acquired from the chi-test formula 𝑥 = Σ 𝐸
.Σ means the sum of all
2
numbers resulting in all the processed values from (𝑂 − 𝐸 ) are added together developing the
2
numerator for the chi-test formula, then divided by E to find the variable of 𝑥 . Another concept is the
degrees of freedom (d.f), this number of categories used minus one. Also needed is the probability (p) this
is the percentage error(decimal form) desired. Although the probability values ranges the scientific notion
(and IB) accepts the possibility value of .05 a 5 percent of the tested result left to chance. These variables
allow to locate the x-squared critical value, the value is a percentage point decimal observed through the
2
chi-squared distribution table. This value is compared to 𝑥 to decide if the null hypothesis can be
accepted or rejected.

Problem/ question
Does the distribution of the color in a bag of Skittles correlate with the amount in each color?
The problem centers on whether the distribution amount of Skittles in a bag is equally distributed by
color.

Variables
➢ Independent variable
○ Colors of skittles in a bag
➢ Dependent variable
○ Amount of each color of skittles
➢ Constant variable
○ Brand of skittles
○ Amount in the bag of Skittles
 Hypothesis
All colors(red, orange, green, yellow, purple) of skittles are equally represented in the bag of skittles
Null hypothesis
Not all colors are represented the same in a bag of skittles.

Materials:
I. Bag of Skittles
II. Pencil and paper

Method
I. Divide the Skittles by color
II. Count each color
III. Record each color and the amount of each color
IV. Process data and go through the procedure for chi-test

Data
Color of skittles Count of skittles
Red 137
Green 41
Orange 68
purple 48
yellow 56
Total 350
Data processing
Observed and expected Skittles
Color Observed (O) Expected (E) (O-E)^2
red 137 70 4,489
green 41 70 841
Orange 68 70 4
purple 48 70 484
yellow 56 70 196

Work
2 2 2 2 2
(137 − 70) (41 − 70) (68 − 70) (48 − 70) (56 − 70)
2 2 2 2 2
(67) = (4,489) (− 29) = (841) (− 2) = (4) (− 22) = (484) (− 14) = (196)
Equation
2
2 (𝑂−𝐸)
𝑥 = Σ 𝐸
𝐷𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑑𝑜𝑚 = 5 − 1 = 4
𝐸(𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑) = 70
2
4, 489 + 841 + 4 + 484 + 196 = 6014 = (𝑜 − 𝑒)
6014 2
70
= 85.9142857143 = 86 = 𝑥 (calculated)

Probability values

Degree
0.1 0.05 0.025 0.01 0.005
Of
freedom 1 2.706 3.841 5.024 6.635 7.879

2 4.605 5.991 7.378 9.21 10.597

3 6.251 7.815 9.348 11.345 12.838

4 7.779 9.488 11.143 13.277 14.86

5 9.236 11.07 12.833 15.086 16.75

2
𝑋 𝑐𝑟𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 = 9. 488 86 > 9. 488
Conclusion

The aim of this experiment was to investigate distribution between skittles color , specifically does each
color equally represented. The hypothesis that all skittles are uniformly distributed in the bag , alongside
null hypothesis that not all colors are represented equally in a bag of skittles.This is supported through
categorizing skittles by color and recording the amount for each.These Expected and Observed values
where subtracted and squared for every color then all added for the numerator ( 6,014) of the equation
2
2 (𝑂−𝐸) 2 2
𝑥 = Σ 𝐸
in order to get the value of 𝑋 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑.In this experiment 𝑋 𝑐𝑟𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 is equal to
2 2
9.488 .The discrepancy of 𝑋 critical being less than 𝑋 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 results in the acceptance of the null
hypothesis and rejection of the hypothesis, that there are an equal color’s in a bag of skittle.The
acceptance of the null hypothesis was due to a significant percentage left to chance with the degree of
2
freedom being 4 and the probability for being 0.05 (leaving a 5 percent to chance).The value of 𝑋
calculated had to be less than or equal to 9.488 whereas it was 86 ,meaning 100 percent was left to
chance. The significant probability left to chance can be attributed to multiple variables such as
distribution , manufacturing , or quality control , alongside the choice of product display due to social
factors.

Evaluation
The process through this experiment consisted of minor technical errors that could have affected the final
result or replication. Through the separation of color process there where multiple discolred (all just
lighter) skittles due to oldness , production error , or came from a bag of different flavors , the discolred
skittles where catgorized by the main color of origin (if it was light orange put it in orange).Through the
next step counting there where issues with skittles falling , multiple skittles fell although the ones noticed
where picked up some could have fell unseen. Improvement of this error could be using a cointaned
surface.Alongside counting there could be human error of counting resulting in the misinformation and
different results , ensuring everything is counted correctly counting multiple times and by different
people.Another error was a green disfigured skittle this skittle was around half smaller than every other
skittle , concluded by accepting the skittle as a one and including it in data.

disfiguration

Evaluation \
 “8. the Chi Squared Tests: The BMJ.” The BMJ | The BMJ: Leading General Medical Journal.
Research. Education. Comment, 12 Apr. 2021,
www.bmj.com/about-bmj/resources-readers/publications/statistics-square-one/8-chi-squared-tests.

Mindrila, Diana, and Phoebe Balentyne. “The Chi Square Test - University of West Georgia.” The
Chi Square Test,
www.westga.edu/academics/research/vrc/assets/docs/ChiSquareTest_LectureNotes.pdf. Accessed
30 Aug. 2023.

Allott, Andrew, and David Mindorff. “17.” Ib Biology, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2014.

(The last citation is the chapter 17 from Biology book posted on canvas I believe it came from 2014 IB
biology book I may be wrong but I could not find what book they came from.