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Lecture PDF
Lecture PDF
COURSE OUTCOMES
CO1: Appraise the selection and initiation of individual projects and its portfolios in
an enterprise.
CO2: Analyze the project planning activities that will predict project costs, time
schedule, and quality.
CO3: Develop processes for successful resource allocation, communication, and risk
management.
CO4: Evaluate effective project execution and control techniques that results in
successful project completion.
CDP
EVALUATION
Project
Completion
Project and handover
Implementation to end user
Project
Planning and
Project Scheduling
Identification
and Selection
Life cycle of a Project:
Life cycle of a Project: S-Curve
Benefits of S-Curve
• Helps track the project (Performance and Progress Evaluation).
• Helps make predictions (Cash flow forecasts).
• Mapping out the project on S-curve helps prepare the project stakeholders on the
resources and progress growth.
Life cycle of a Project: S-Curve
Life cycle of a Project: J-Curve
Initiation of Projects:
A new project takes place in the following
three distinct phases:
Project Identification
Project Appraisal
Project Selection
1.1 Project Identification
a) To increase profits
b) To minimize threats of losses
c) To become more competitive
d) To provide help after a disaster
e) To train people in a new area
f) To reduce pollution in a metropolis (eg. New Delhi)
g) To become successful entrepreneur
Review the situation to
identify needs and
objectives for new
projects
OBJECTIVES
Brainstorming
Idea 1 Idea 2 Idea n
2. Weaknesses 4. Threats
• Newer unfamiliar technologies • Competitors
• Inability to raise huge investments • Poor state of the economy
• Lack of experience • Outdated technology
• Lack of trained personnel • Unprofessional management skills
• Inability to forecast market trends • New products and services
Case study
e) Environmental impact
f) Competition
g) Profit
Case study
a) Market Appraisal
b) Technical Appraisal
c) Financial Appraisal
d) Socio economic Appraisal
e) Ecological Appraisal
1. Selection of Projects:
a) Market :
Market appraisal of a project is concerned with
establishing the customers/clients of a project.
Some of the important questions addressed at this stage
are:
- Who is the customer?
- What are his/her requirements?
- Which are the alternative products or services that satisfy
the customer’s needs?
- What is the competitive position of the product or service
via other competitors?
A Market research study based on
personal interviews with prospective customers,
questionnaire analysis,
a historical survey of similar products,
information of competitor performance from Internet or other sources and
brainstorming among the experts would help to identify the market potential of the
project by answering the following two basic questions:
MAJOR ISSUES
A) Past and current demand (static, erratic, steady increase or steady decrease)
B) Understanding the past and current supply position
C) Production possibilities and constraints
D) Import and Exports
E) Nature of competition
F) Cost structure
G) Elasticity of Demand
H) Consumer behaviour (preferences, requirements)
J) Distribution channels (marketing polices)
K) Administrative, technical and legal constraints.
1.2 Project Appraisal-
b) Technical Appraisal:
Primary objective of technical appraisal of the project is to
ensure that right decisions have been made with regard to size,
location, process selection and overall layout of proposed
facility.
Whether prerequisites for success of project considered?
Good choices with regard to location, size, process,
machines etc.
Examples
- Refineries
- Pipelines
- Building cement, steel plants, automobile parts
- Construction
- Highways
- Flyovers
• The appraisal would have to be carried out by the respective experts who are
aware of industry practices, international standards and relevant knowledge
base in the field.
• The expert after carrying out the technical appraisal comments on the technical
feasibility of the project.
MAJOR ISSUES
c) Financial Appraisal:
This is one of the most important appraisals carried out on
a project.
The primary purpose is to determine the cost and revenues
over the life of the project and see whether there is an
adequate return on the investment.
Financing project through institutional loans is also one of
the objectives.
The above objectives are met by collecting following data:
- Initial investment
Where,
Rt=net cash inflow-outflow during a single period t
i= discount rate or return that could be earned in alternative
investments.
t=number of time periods.
A project that costs $1,000 and will provide three cash flows
of $500, $300, and $800 over the next three years. Assume
that there is no salvage value at the end of the project and that
the required rate of return is 8%. The NPV of the project ?
Project X requires an initial investment of $35,000 but is expected to
generate revenues of $10,000, $27,000, and $19,000 for the first,
second, and third years, respectively. The target rate of return is
12%. Calculate NPV?
Calculate NPV.
A sum of $ 400,000 is invested today in an IT project may give a
series of below cash inflows in future:
$70000 in year 1
$1,20,000 in year 2
$ 1,40,000 in year 3
$ 1,40,000 in year 4
$ 40,000 in year 5
If opportunity cost of capital is 8% p.a. then should be accept or
reject the project?
Calculate NPV
A sum of $ 400,000 is invested today in an IT project may give a
series of below cash inflows in future:
$70000 in year 1
$1,20,000 in year 2
$ 1,40,000 in year 3
$ 1,40,000 in year 4
$ 40,000 in year 5
If opportunity cost of capital is 15% p.a. then should be accept
or reject the project?
Internal Rate of Return
Initial Investment=Rs.3,00,000
Annual cost of operation Rs. 20,000
Expected annual revenues: a) Rs. 1,00,000 p.a for first two years
b) Rs. 2,00,000 p.a for next three years
Planning horizon of 5 years
Revenues
100 100 200 200 200
Costs
300 20 20 20 20 20
Time
0 1 2 3 4 5
Undiscounted Cash flow before tax
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5
Cash -300 80 80 180 180 180
flow
Dis. 1 0.909 0.826 0.751 0.683 0.621
Factor
DCF -300 72.72 66.08 135.18 122.94 111.78
Cum. -300 -227.28 -161.2 -26.02 96.92 208.7
DCF
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5
Cash -300 80 80 180 180 180
flow
Dis. 1 0.833 0.694 0.579 0.482 0.402
Factor
DCF -300 66.64 55.52 104.22 86.76 72.36
Cum. -300 -233.36 -177.84 -73.62 13.14 85.50
DCF
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5
Cash -300 80 80 180 180 180
flow
Dis. 1 0.769 0.592 0.455 0.350 0.269
Factor
DCF -300 61.52 47.36 81.90 63.00 48.47
Cum. -300 -238.42 -191.12 -109.22 -46.22 2.2
DCF
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5
Cash -300 80 80 180 180 180
flow
Dis. 1 0.741 0.549 0.406 0.301 0.223
Factor
DCF -300 59.28 43.92 73.08 54.18 40.14
Cum. -300 -240.72 -196.80 -123.72 -69.54 -29.40
DCF
y=y1+((x-x1)/(x2-x1))*(y2-y1)
d) Socio-Economic Appraisal:
e) Ecological Appraisal:
a) Investment
b) Return (IRR)
c) Payback
d) NPV
e) Risk
f) Future growth prospects
g) Similarity with the existing
h) Environmental implications
1.3 Project Section-
Evaluation of Projects
- Rarely would one project emerge as the best in all the criteria’s
selected- if this condition occurs then the project is dominant project
and it should clearly be selected
- In general their will be a set of non-dominant projects the choice out
of which is not normally easy.
- Management priorities to various criteria could help in making the
decision.
1.3 Project Section-
Criteria
Tangible Intangible
(measurable eg. (non-
in Rs., %, year) measurable)
Criteria C1 C2 C3 C4 Cn
Projects
P1 X11 X12 X13 X1n S1
S4
• P1
• P6
• P2
• P3 • P5 • P8
• P7
• P4
NPV
Preferred Solution:
Criteria C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6
Projects
P1 10 40 8 HIGH GOOD V.GOOD S1
S1*=0.0545 S1-=0.0983
S2*=0.1197 S2-=0.0439
S3*=0.0580 S3-=0.0920
S4*=0.1009 S4-=0.0458
Relative closeness to ideal solution
Step 6: Determine the relative closeness to the ideal solution for each
alternatives
Ci*= Si-/(Si*+Si-)
C1*=0.643
C2*=0.268
C3*=0.613
C4*=0.312
A1 , A3, A4, A2
SIMPLE ADDITIVE WEIGHTING (SAW)
Step 1: Obtain the decision matrix after using numerical scale for
intangibles.
Criteria X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6
Projects
A1 2.0 1500 20000 5.5 5 9
A3 , A1, A4, A2
Conclusion
• Project selection involves consideration of multiple, often
conflicting criteria among the alternatives.